Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 05, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 05, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

A German Journalist’s ‘Civil Death’

Patrick Lawrence, March 31, 2026 [via defenddemocracy.press]

… With the seizure of his spouse’s bank accounts last Friday, Dogru and his family now face what amounts to a starvation blockade of the kind the Trump regime (not to change the subject) currently imposes on Cuba and Israel imposes on Gaza.

This story reads like something out of Dostoyevsky or Kafka, I have to say. We are talking about a family of five going hungry in the capital of the Federal Republic of Germany as punishment for… what?… for seeing with his eyes open, for thinking about what he sees, then commenting on what he sees?

I would love to suggest various ways readers could support the Dogru family, but there are none. Were someone to donate so much as a loaf of bread to help sustain them the German authorities would count it a criminal offense punishable by a prison term of up to several years.

 

 

Strategic Political Economy

Why we need rationing, now

Richard Murphy, April 02, 2026 [Funding the Future]

The UK is in a war economy, and most people don’t realise it yet. The Middle East conflict has already cut global oil supplies by around 20% and gas supplies by roughly 30%. With approximately half of all UK food imported, and global fertiliser supplies under severe pressure, the shortages hitting our shelves and energy bills are only the beginning.

Markets cannot solve this. When supply collapses, markets ration by income and those with money survive; those without do not. That is not a policy choice. That is a failure of government. The energy crisis and emerging food shortages demand an active UK state response.

Drawing on Lord Keynes’s approach at the start of World War II, and John Kenneth Galbraith’s wartime work in the United States, this video argues that the only credible response to this supply chain crisis is a combination of government-led rationing and a serious redesign of the tax system.

It means government intervention in the economy at a scale not seen since the 1940s.

The alternative is leaving resource allocation to the market, which will transfer wealth upward, destroy social cohesion, and risk public unrest. That is not how to manage a war economy. That is a policy choice to let the poor bear the cost of a crisis they did not create.

[TW: Interesting! Can the consequences of Trumpanyahu war be used to drive a regime change of political economy away from neoliberalism? We must try….. ]

Not Getting It Together 

Aurelien, via Naked Capitalism 04-01-2025]

…It’s not so much that numbers can be confused with reality, as that reality in the end is nothing but numbers, and decisions are made and workers rewarded without any kind of real-world check. Everything is possible, therefore, because ultimately everything is numbers.

The modern political class, increasingly dominated by those who have worked in finance, or its close relative management consultancy, therefore largely consist of people with little experience of the real world. Over the last forty years, unsurprisingly, this way of thinking and working, combining symbolic manipulation of numbers and the ticking of symbolic boxes, has become the default in government, and even the military and diplomacy. So the emphasis now is not on the capability to do things and achieve actual objectives, but on the skills of making the numbers look right, and proving that you have carried out the correct steps in the correct order. That is all the system knows how to do….

…It is the nature of a crisis that most attention is focused on transitory daily issues, such that the big picture, if there ever was one, disappears from view. I know from personal experience that in a crisis every long and exhausting day is overwhelmed with meetings, telephone calls, video-conferences, unexpected news or initiatives, requests for interviews, media statements, questions in parliament … the list goes on and on. For those like me who had the temerity to ask what the point of all this was, and about longer-term objectives and plans, the response was typically “we’ll worry about that later.” And quite soon, of course, it’s later, and the system realises that it has no idea how it got to where it is, especially because it actually wanted to be somewhere else. But by then it’s too late.

So the real problem is not so much that the left brain dominates, as that the two modes of thinking are never brought together. This means that quite a lot of left-brain work can go on effectively on auto-pilot, because it develops a life of its own. Thus, ideas for using US ground troops in Iran can rapidly be developed at a technical level, with force composition and generation, potential targets, entry points, logistic resupply, ISR etc, all without the questions of “why are we doing this?” or “what do we hope to achieve?” ever being posed. But of course the output of such activities can be easily expressed in whizzo graphics and AI generated simulations, and it provides the planners with something to do….

Thus, statements of faith in an ultimate Ukrainian victory, or of a future “Free Palestine,” or of the inevitable defeat of Iran, have to be seen, even more than most political statements, as symbolic and metaphorical. They are not deduced from the facts of the situation, nor do there have to be actual processes capable of making them happen. They are battle-cries, slogans for chanting, descriptions of fantasies and in certain cases nightmares. The problem arises when the extreme right-brain thinking that has always characterised politics, exacerbated by the ignorance of modern politicians about real life, collides with the extreme left-brain culture of our modern world as exemplified in government systems, without any transmission mechanism to enable them to work together….

The greatest challenge, as often, is intellectual. Our masters will have to recognise that chains of consequence and causality do actually exist, that Father Christmas is a right-brain myth, and that there are hard limits on what can actually be done, and hard requirements about what needs to be done, and neither can be circumvented with words. In particular, they need to abandon the delusion that only finance matters, and that numbers on paper represent the underlying reality of the world. (Not even Pythagoras would have suggested that you can eat numbers.) This is most obvious in the endless, earnest discussion of what the Iran War will do to “the price of oil.” In a few cases, pundits even realise that “the price of oil” might affect the prices of other things as well. But from their point of view, “price” and “oil” are two different concepts. The idea that there might just not be enough oil, and that that lack may have practical consequences other than price doesn’t get much of an airing. After all, surely if the price goes up, new suppliers will come forward? That’s how the market works, isn’t it? Isn’t it? The idea that the world will soon lose some of its supply of oil-based products, and that this is a hard limit that cannot be got round, has only just begun to register, and, to the extent that it has, pundits appear to believe that we can substitute, say, solar power for oil, and all will be well. Can you use solar power to make fertiliser? Indeed, can you make solar panels at all without oil-based products?

…I doubt if any western country is now equipped, organisationally or even intellectually, to handle problems caused by scarcity of food. Western states now enjoy little absolute food security—a problem I discussed in some detail last year—but our governments are far from even beginning to grasp the nature of the problem, let alone its implications. Ah well, it will be said, people eat too much and anyway too much food is thrown away. Indeed, but that’s not the answer….

As it happens, there is a lot of experience of what happens in situations of severe shortage, and the answer is that the rich buy what they want, the poor buy what they can, and organised crime steps in to put those with money in touch with those with things to sell. The capacity of western states has been radically reduced over the last couple of generations, even as the power of organised crime has grown. We can imagine what shortages of basic medicines would do, and who might wind up controlling their retail sale. In reality, attempts by government to control the availability of everyday necessities will lead nowhere and arouse public opposition. The Internet will have a field day: it will be worse than Covid. This shortage of food doesn’t really exist you see, it’s just the Davos brigade trying to kill off as many people as it can, this time by hunger….

Trump’s planning war crimes

Richard Murphy, April 02, 2026 [Funding the Future]

Donald Trump has signalled his intention to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure, power stations and desalination plants, and that is a war crime under international law. The law is unambiguous: military gain does not justify targeting civilian populations and the infrastructure they depend upon, and pre-announcing an attack does not reduce culpability. This is the reality of the Iran war that the world urgently needs to confront….

…There is a deeper ideological logic at work here, which is neoliberalismNeoliberal economics reduces human beings to units in a system, economic cogs with conditional worth. When civilians are treated as expendable targets in a war in Iran, that is not aberration. That is the neoliberal system working as designed.

Margaret Thatcher applied the same logic to UK communities in the 1980s, treating unemployment and social harm as acceptable costs of economic policy. Trump’s Iran policy is the modern expression of that same ideology, now directed at Iranian civilians on a far grander and more lethal scale. The mindset is identical; the human cost is simply larger.

The collapse of moral constraint we are witnessing in the US-Iran conflict is a systemic danger. Neoliberalism, combined with distorted justification, is overriding both international law and basic humanity…

Never doubt that dangerous ideas are a threat to humankind

Richard Murphy, March 31, 2026 [Funding the Future]

…This is the consequence of neoliberal thinking. When, as that philosophy does, you reduce people to being cogs in a machine, those cogs become expendable. Margaret Thatcher treated people in this way when managing the UK economy with supreme indifference to its population in the 1980s. Donald Trump is treating the people of Iran in this way when managing his maniacal war agenda in the 2020s. There is a difference in the scale of the contempt shown, but the indifference to human suffering that underpinned both courses of action is similar.

The fact is that the courses of action required to fulfil the neoliberal agenda of ever-increasing the wealth of a few in society at cost to many have been presumed by all those who subscribe to this ideology as justification for their contempt for their fellow human beings, and as an excuse for the suffering that their ideology has caused to billions around the world….

Trump’s assault on 2026 Election

Trump Will Not Accept the 2026 Results. These Are the Legal Weapons to Force Certification

W. A. Lawrence, Mar 29, 2026 [Glass Empires]

Trump is not attempting to win the election. Trump is attempting to establish the outcome as settled before certification, because a public that accepts inevitability becomes far easier to override.

Since January 2025, actions to expand federal control of election administration have moved from proposal into execution. Courts have blocked portions on constitutional grounds. Legal countermeasures stand ready. Effective use requires speed, coordination, and sustained pressure applied before administrative strain.

American elections transfer governing authority through a statutory and constitutional process requiring convergence of canvassing, certification, judicial review, and final recognition within fixed time limits….

Stage one is voter roll disruption before the election. The SAVE America Act forces all 211 million registered voters to re register in person with documentary proof of citizenship before November, generating mass eligibility disputes designed to overwhelm certification administrators at the moment deadlines permit no unresolved claims.

A parallel draft executive order carries identical provisions for unilateral imposition under a declared national emergency if the Senate fails to act. Trump confirmed the fallback, stating the requirements will govern the midterms whether approved by Congress or imposed by executive authority….

Trump signs executive order creating national voter list, restricting mail-in voting

[Associated Press, via Drop Site Daily: April 1, 2026

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Tuesday directing the Department of Homeland Security and Social Security Administration to create a national list of verified eligible voters and seeking to bar the U.S. Postal Service from sending absentee ballots to those not on state-approved lists. Voting law experts say the move unconstitutionally usurps states’ authority to run elections. Federal funding could be withheld from states that do not comply.

Nearly Two Dozen Democratic States Hit Trump With Elections Lawsuit

Finn Hartnett, April 3, 2026 [The New Republic]

Officials from 23 different states (and the District of Columbia) are taking Donald Trump to court over a brazenly unconstitutional executive order that looks to limit Americans’ voting rights.

The executive order, signed on Tuesday, banned the U.S. Postal Service from delivering mail-in ballots to anyone not on a preapproved list compiled by the USPS itself. Trump and his cronies like to claim mail-in voting is rife with fraud—despite a lack of evidence and the fact that the president likes to vote by mail himself. But the executive order’s solution to this is sketchy at best. Why, and how, does the USPS get to choose who can vote by mail?

Perhaps even more insidious is another section of the executive order, which calls on the federal government to compile its own list of voters in each state, which will then be sent to states 60 days before each federal election—presumably along with a bunch of threats that they better not find anyone who doesn’t match their list voting….

Letters from an American, March 31, 2026

Heather Cox Richardson, Apr 01, 2026

…Trump is ordering the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to work with the Social Security Administration to create a list of verified U.S. citizens who are eligible to vote in each state. The order directs the U.S. Postal Service to send mail-in ballots only to voters on the list, and to mark each ballot with its own unique barcode. It threatens any states refusing to cooperate with the order with a loss of federal funding and directs Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate anyone wrongfully distributing mail-in ballots. Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council notes that “there is no such thing as a federal list of citizens. It does not exist.”

“This is unconstitutional on its face,” election law expert David Becker told Yunior Rivas of Democracy Docket. “The Constitution clearly gives the president no power over elections….

State Dems must stop ICE from stealing the midterms

Cory Doctorow, March 31, 2026 [Pluralistic]

Writing for Jacobin, Eric Blanc points out that Democrats don’t have to sit by passively while Trump – who repeatedly promised that if you voted for him in 2024, “you won’t have to vote anymore” – steals an election:

https://jacobin.com/2026/03/ice-trump-election-theft-laws/

…On March 13, the New Mexico state legislature passed a law banning armed federal officials from showing their fascist asses anywhere within 50 feet of a polling place or ballot drop-box:

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-prohibits-armed-agents-voting-sites/70729595

Other blue states like “California, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Washington” are contemplating similar laws.

It’s a start, but as Blanc says, what the fuck are the other blue statehouses waiting for? This is a white-hot, hair-on-fire emergency. There isn’t a moment to spare. This should be on the agenda for every union, at every demonstration, at every DSA and Democratic Club meeting. As Blanc says, if we wait until November to find out what Trump is going to do, it’ll be too late. The time to act is now.

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

The Illusion of a Revolutionary Moment

As the blowback resulting from Trump’s foolhardy attack on Iran begin to directly impact Americans, it’s natural to hope for substantive, positive political change in the U.S. of A.

Polls show Trump hemorrhaging support from all quarters, even among his base.

Polls show the Democratic leadership is deeply unpopular, even with a majority of Democratic voters.

In Maine, polls show sitting Governor Janet Mills is getting crushed by Graham Platner heading into the June 9th primary vote which will determine the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate.

Platner has already survived a brutal oppo dump that dropped just as Mills (backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer) entered the race last fall, including getting caught with a nazi tattoo on his chest.

Platner’s rhetoric is getting remarkably leftist, even using the old Coal Miner’s Union song “Which Side Are You On” in a campaign ad.

And the average price of gasoline in the US has only just hit $4/gallon.

Just wait until it’s $6/gallon nationally and $10/gallon in California.

And wait until more than 45% of the American public figures out that Trump’s War on Iran is not only “not going well”, but that the empire has already suffered a crushing, permanent blow.

This is all happening in a context of economic collapse that was well underway before Trump’s February 28th attack.

In review, we’ve got:

  1. Looming US military defeat
  2. Looming economic crash
  3. Trump and the MAGA movement bleeding out
  4. A rotten, unpopular Dem leadership class hated by all sides

Seems like a recipe for political turmoil, maybe even serious political change, right?

Right.

Yes. This part is obvious.

The not-so-obvious part is this: who will fill the looming political vacuum?

The answer is simple, if not obvious: the political void will be filled by those who are most prepared to seize the moment, and possibly just seize power.

The MAGA forces that brought Trump to power are the most to blame for his disastrous reign.

The Christian Zionists who latched onto MAGA (and took it over) have made their play and it is ending disastrously in West Asia. They could only have emerged as a force in a completely degenerate United States built on delusion and propaganda.

Their day is done.

So, who else?

The Techbros, as the biggest winners to emerge in the neo-liberal era, intend to conquer and dominate the coming era.

They’ve had the most cash and are used to running rings around incumbent powers.

They’ve planned feverishly for the coming opportunity and have massive resources to back their play.

Except they’ve sunk it all on a bet on Large Language Models aka AI which is seemingly on the verge of imploding disastrously (at least from a financial and economic perspective).

Should we join Whitney Webb and Taylor Lorenz in warning against the Techbros?

How scared should we be of the idiot who wasted $83 billion on “the Metaverse”?

Thought much about being “de-banked“? Might want to consider it before “hitting the streets” or just doing journalism.

Americans think it can’t happen here? Well just avoid Ohio and you’ll be fine….for now.

How To Read More

I see a lot of discussions about how to read more. Most of them are of the flavor of “I know broccoli and liver are good for me, but I hate how they taste, how do I eat more?”

This leads to people who are proud they read a book a month, or maybe a week, numbers that make actual readers, who often read a book a day, laugh. By the time I was ten, I was reading about fifteen books a week. (I know because I know what the library lending limits were.) I didn’t do it because it was good for me, I did it for fun.

Even in non fiction, find something you’ll enjoy reading. Love knights and chivalry? Plenty of books. Food or cooking? Same.  Seashells? Music? Math? Hunting? Anime? Weird esoteric shit like the different breeds of sheep or the history of whale hunting? Whatever it is, there are books on it. Probably many books, even for niche interests.

Then there’s fiction. I read fiction because I enjoy a break from being Ian and/or living in this particular world. That’s why I read a lot of science fiction and fantasy, but I read all genres, even some romance novels. The Regency romance novels of Georgette Heyer are often both funny and touching and you’ll learn a lot about Regency England without even realizing it, for example. (Try “The Corinthian” or “Friday’s Child” and stay away from her historical novels.)

The people who do a lot of anything either love doing it, or they’re doing it for money. (The ideal is both, but paid book reviewers are largely a thing of the past.)

If you want to be a better writer, read books by authors whose style you admire. Read the first time for fun, then re-read analytically, then write pastiches. Read a scene, put the book down and see if you can write the same scene the same way without looking.

Once you’ve done that with a few authors, try to write the a scene more than once, in each style. You can do the same with non fiction. It’s really hard to write like Machiavelli, for example. It sounds simple when you read it, but… no.

More instrumental advice. From 2018 to Covid, I wanted to get back into reading more as I’d gotten out of the habit. So I went to a coffee shop in a bookstore and didn’t take any screens except an e-reader. I’d sit and read for hours.

If you’re screen addicted, you may need to enforce some “no screen” time or set your phone so it only alerts you if key people call like your wife and ask them not to call unless it’s an emergency. Once Covid started up I read less, but I had the habit/enjoyment back.

Well, I never really lost the enjoyment. I still enjoyed it, but the dopamine twitch reflex of social media and so on had become an issue, not as fun overall, but it’s more immediate.

Reading books has a different “brain feel” than reading short form let alone social media. You just need to get a taste for it. It’s sort of stretchy — you get entire full stories or entire world models in ways articles can’t give you, let alone some social post or video.

That, I find, sparks a lot more ideas for me, and I LOVE the feeling of new ideas. Barbara Hambly once called it the the “cold clear ecstasy of intellectual discovery” and while I won’t say it’s the best feeling, it’s unique. Books really help get that.

If you want to read more: reduce your screen addiction and read books you’ll enjoy. Don’t treat it like forcing down liver and broccoli. Have fun.

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When Does Money Matter?

The core reason for America and Europe’s decline (and, in a way, Japan’s) was the belief by our elites that money was the only thing which mattered.

Money is the ability command resources from anyone who will, or must, sell. People who need to sell their labor or starve—Marx’s famous “whip of hunger.” Countries who must sell to get your money because you either make them militarily (see Venezuela right now and Iraq, both of which must sell their oil in US dollars and let the US treasury keep the money on account for them, then decide what they can spend it on, plus, of course the entire colonial era); or because they need to buy what you have.

For a long time the West had a monopoly on much of what you had to have: medicines, engines, planes, cars, tractors, fertilizer and so on. The Petrodollar was about having a monopoly on oil and all its products: gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, jet fuel, plastics and fertilizer again. If you wanted electricity, well the equipment to make it came from the West too. If you wanted advanced weapons — the West, especially after the fall of the USSR.

During the early post war period you had options: you could get most of this from the West or the Soviets. But starting in the 70s, the USSR went into decline and then it fell, and the West was the only option.

Back to American elites: since everyone had to buy in dollars, and because they needed to get so much from the West, also had to sell in dollars, well having dollars was all that mattered. The more dollars, the more power.

What the elites forgot, thanks to complete retards like Francis Fukuyama, and sheer stupidity and greed was that smarter people than them had arranged the system this way: that it was contingent on the West having what everyone else needed, and having the military whip-hand.

Japan, poor fuckers, built an incredible industrial base and was pushing on taking the industrial lead. American leaders in the 80s, not having been taken over by complete retards made the Japanese sign the Plaza Accords, in which they would give that tech to America, open factories in the West and so on: give up their momentum, because it matters where you build.

As I’ve said many times, the tech lead follows the manufacturing floor: this is the LAW. Japan wasn’t strong enough to tell the US to go to hell. So they spent the last 4 decades in slow decline. This wasn’t primarily because of their big crash, though that was mishandled, but because they were no longer allowed to continue their industrial and technological snowball.

But by the 90s the last smart competent American elites were dead or retired, and the triumphalism over the fall of the USSR made them think, a la Fukuyama, that their system was superior, their shit didn’t stink, and they’d be on top forever. Everyone would have their system, and everyone would just keep buying and selling in dollars no matter what: it no longer mattered where things were made.

The key moment was when Clinton let China into the World Trade Organization (WTO) with developing world status. Western financiers (they weren’t capitalists, capitalists aren’t so stupid) looked at how cheap Chinese labor was and how willing they were to pollute and let workers get maimed, and they salivated. (And yes, lack of worker protections was part of it. One of my friends, in the 90s, visited a battery factory where the batteries were made by hand. Batteries are basically full of acid. Think it thru.)

So they sent industry to China and told themselves “well, we do the design here. That’s what matters.”

The Chinese leadership nodded, smiled and among themselves said, I’m sure, “what a bunch of suckers. Thank God they’re such idiots.”

And in learning to make all these things the Chinese learned the design and so on, and in time took the manufacturing lead. Then about 20 years later they took the tech lead decisively. Even three years ago American sanctions worried them. 

(In 2023) Xi Jinping warned that U.S.-led technology restrictions posed “unprecedented severe challenges” to China’s development.

Today:

Han Wenxiu, the senior official overseeing day-to-day operations at the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs (CCFEA) — the Party’s top economic policymaking body — told the China Development Forum (CDF):

“After years of effort, China’s indigenous innovation capacity has passed a critical inflection point, making it difficult for external forces to derail our development”

As for overcapacity, the Chinese are no longer apologizing for it or dancing around it. They say our companies are uncompetitive and that’s our problem.

The bet seems to be that most countries, or trading blocs, won’t get their acts together enough to materially push back against China’s export juggernaut.

  • Even the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods — unprecedented in recent history — have only succeed in diverting low-value manufactures (think toys, textiles, and fast fashion) away from the U.S. and toward new markets.
  • They’ve had less impact on higher-value exports to the U.S. — either because those goods were never sold there at scale (i.e. NEVs) or were exempt from the tariff regime anyway (i.e. smartphones and medical equipment).

To put it simply, the world needs what China has and can’t make it themselves. If they can make it themselves, well, it’s much cheaper coming from China and how many Western countries are willing to take a big hit to re-start their industries, and are competent enough to pull it off? (My approximate count is zero.)

And that, folks, is the end of the Western order. No one needs to buy from us any more. They’d still like to sell to us, sure, but they don’t need to because they don’t need dollars. If it’s something they need they can get it from China or, to a lesser extent Russia, India and so on. We don’t have a monopoly on anything that matters any more: the last real one was chip manufacturing, but the Chinese are catching up fast and confident that in a few years they’ll be there. In the meantime, they can make all but the most advanced chips and those are the ones that go in almost all manufactured good: the most advanced stuff is only useful for things like AI, and China’s find its way around that.

Now we come to Iran. Iran is showing that a fairly modest kit: missiles and drones, is sufficient to keep the US navy and air force far away and make any attack prohibitively expensive in men and material. Plus everyone knows that expensive US military gear needs Chinese supplies: the West doesn’t have the full kit any more, the Chinese can and in some case have, cut the West off any time they want. All those expensive radars the Iranians blew up? Well it’s not the cost (that’s irrelevant) it’s that they require materials on the Chinese have. They get rebuilt if the Chinese let America and there’s basically nothing the US can do about that.

Keynes famously said “anything we can do, we can afford.” The corollary, as I’ve written before is that it doesn’t matter how much money you have, anything you can’t do you can’t afford—or rather you can’t afford it if the people who can do it won’t sell it to you.

America had a great thing going, for America and for its allies. But American elites got stupid and didn’t understand the actual structure upholding their power. They though it was innate to a superior system and superior people, not a structure built by very smart and ruthless people over a period of about a hundred and fifty years: a structure that required maintaining.

And so, it’s over. It’s just over and anyone who tells you otherwise has zero idea what they’re talking about.

And everyone else is realizing this. Let’s take Australia, run by ‘tards even stupider than America. Twenty years ago, they had eight refineries. Now they have two. They’re running out of diesel and even if they could get crude oil (certainly not impossible, though hard) it doesn’t matter, because they can’t refine it.

This lesson should have been learned during the Covid Pandemic when the West restricted medical supplies and the logistics system stopped delivering enough international goods.

Anything really important: fuel, machinery required to maintain your infrastructure, food, medicine, etc… is something that you should be able to make yourself. If you truly can’t, you must have huge stockpiles. I would never want a country to have stockpiles less than three years of medicines, food, parts for important machinery like the electrical grid, and fuel.

None of us do.

Anyway, the structure of Western dominance is now dismantled, by Westerners. Perhaps the Chinese could have industrialized fully without us, but it would have taken a lot longer and as long as we had our own industry and tech stack, it would have just meant a cold war situation with two blocs and, absent de-industrialization, perhaps the West could have held its own, though China is innately stronger than the USSR ever was, especially with Russia as an ally.

We did this to ourselves, or our elites did, because of sheer stupidity and arrogance. Don’t underestimate how bad this will be. I’m in the “better China as hegemon than America” crowd. I think they’ll kill a lot less people. But be clear, they are going to be a hegemon, at least in industrial terms and this is going to mean a serious standard of living drop in much of the West. Europe will get hit the hardest (especially Britain) but everyone’s going to get hit hard. A few of us may make the switch over to the hegemon on favorable terms. Canada and Australia have the best chance of doing this being large countries with tons of resources and relatively small populations, but it’s not a sure thing.

Dominance and prosperity are both structural. They are always created by competent leaders and populations and when their successors become complacent they are always lost.

That’s where we are.

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You Better Start Swimming, Because Drowning Is Bad For Your Health

~by Sean Paul Kelley

Headwinds: “a headwind blows against the direction of travel of an object . . . decreases the object’s speed and increases the time required to reach its destination.”

Rip Tide: “A rip is a strong, localized, and narrow current of water that moves directly away from the shore, cutting through the lines of breaking waves, like a river flowing out to sea. The force of the current in a rip is strongest and fastest next to the surface of the water. . . Swimmers who are caught in a rip current and who do not understand what is happening, or who may not have the necessary water skills, may panic, or they may exhaust themselves by trying to swim directly against the flow of water.”

Last week I wrote this about our current credit cycle:

The end of this credit cycle is going to include the following macro events: a credit crisis, a housing crisis, an energy shock, with the potential for massive failed deliveries necessary to third world nations creating famine on a biblical scale, at least one Too Big To Fail failing, as Lehman Bros and AIG did in 2008, and the AI bubble bust. All of these will happen. Locked in. Fixed. No way out.

Since then there, as is the way of the world, some things have changed. When facts change, I re-assess ideas and opinions.

First, the Fed, and the ECB, are caught between Scylla and Charybdis (I should not have to explain that reference to this readership, should I?): an imminent credit crisis necessitates monetary easing, whereas a looming energy shock necessitates rate hikes to forestall inflation. Right?

It’s the mother of all dilemmas for a Central Banker.

I think the Fed and ECB as per their dual remits—price stability— will hike rates fearing inflation more (and with some cogent reasons to do so, e.g., the ripple effects of skyrocketing diesel prices) and ignore the massive and imminent credit destruction—the notional value of all global private/shadow credit is about $4 trillion, yes, you read that right—that will force insurers and pensions funds into severe liquidity/solvency crisises that are both overexposed to the private credit shops and locked out of redemptions. That freeze in liquidity will cause morphine-necessary levels of pain on Wall Street, but Main Street won’t even get a Tylenol, granny won’t get her annuity payment and uncle Joe won’t get his county pension, auntie-Mae might even miss her teacher’s pension.

Meanwhile, diesel driven costs will surge through the real economy like a tsunami, destroying purchasing power more forcefully than we have ever seen. We could be looking at a real decline in economic order of 4-7% YoY.

BTW: doesn’t just in time delivery look like an idiot’s fucking fever dream right now?

Bond rates rolled over yesterday. Oil prices remain sticky. Repo fails are surging: $379 billion week as of March 18. Repos, repurchase agreements are the highest quality, safest corporate invetments in existence. Rising repo failures are a clear indicator that, although systemic liquidity exists, confidence is collapsing. Repo failures often have cascading effects on other corporate parties who cannot find the necessary funding for short-term obligations their cash flow is unable to support. Moreover, private credit redemption halts are increasing exponentially. Employment is cratering. Diesel prices are skyrocketing. Housing is in a nationwide free-fall. Systemic liquidity is perilously close to freezing up.

Folks, I hate to say it, but our economy isn’t facing headwinds, it’s facing riptides.

Headwinds are manageable. Riptides kill.

The domestic shocks are enough to call it plain: we’re in a recession. Of course, do not expect accurate or honest economic numbers from Trump’s government. The damage could be limited domestically except for the exogenous shocks resulting from Trump’s Iranian catastrophe.

The global effects are almost incomprehensible.

Consider the damage done to Gulf petrol infrastructure. When refineries get blown-up AVGAS, diesel, helium, urea and fertilizer become impossible to buy. Who cares if it can or cannot make it out of the Straits of Hormuz? If they don’t exist, whatcha going to do? These products are known as petroleum distillates. They are by-products of gasoline refining.

I can’t even begin to comprehend how deleterious and long-term this destruction will be and what kind of follow-on, cascading effects it will have. Consider that helium is essential in making chips. No one, and I mean not a single fucking Wall Street analyst I know of, is factoring in the loss of distillates from destroyed refineries yet. That it bodes very, very ill for the entire world economy is an understatement. It’s not hyperbole to say the economies of the Rules Based Order are in deep peril. Japan and South Korea are in deep kimchi too.

And India’s Green Revolution? Oh man, the carnage might be biblical in scale without access to Persian Gulf fertilizer. It could be like the impact of two failed monsoons. The human exodus? Of all that is holy, it makes me want to curl up in the fetal position.

Not a one of us–including myself–has any true inkling how dependent the modern industrialized and developing world is on petroleum and its by-products. Nor do we have any idea of the catastrophe unfolding in places like South East Asia in regards to food. For example, gas for cooking shortages have lead many people in South East Asia’s mega-cities to abandon the cities for rural home regions where cooking with biomass, primarily animal dung and wood, is practicable. Ponder that for a moment. Then consider the deforestation cascading consequences of those mega-populations reverting to 13th century feeding practices?

If you need it spelled out for you in brutal detail read this utterly demoralizing essay. We are well along the road to ruin.

I’m an historian and confess to a complete lack of a historical framework/reference to analyze and/or opine in any meaningful manner on how epic the shitstorm Trump’s war on Iran will turn out, except I know bone-deep that the Rules Based Order will collapse. The remainder of the world?

Gotterdammerung. Google it if you need explication. I’m too tired, too fucking sick with grief and too enraged to continue.

It’s Time For Iraq To Free Itself And Get Revenge For the Gulf and Iraq Wars

You may remember when Iraq said “Americans must remove all troops from Iraq” and the US said “who cares what you think?”

Well, right now the Iraq resistance is removing all American troops from Iraq. They can’t defend their bases and even had to beg for a truce to remove troops.

But the real problem isn’t American troops in Iraq, it’s financial:

The U.S. control over Iraq’s oil revenues primarily stems from the management of Iraq’s oil income through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. After the 2003 invasion, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), led by the U.S., established the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI), which was held at the New York Fed. The DFI was designed to collect Iraq’s oil revenues and use them for the country’s reconstruction and development. It was also set up to protect the Iraqi oil revenues from lawsuits and claims relating to Saddam Hussein’s rule. Then-president George W. Bush signed an executive order, which has been renewed by every president since, that set up the arrangement. The DFI eventually became an account of the Central Bank of Iraq at the New York Federal Reserve, which remains the case today.
What leverage does this give the U.S. over Iraq?
Oil is Iraq’s most important revenue source, accounting for some 90% of the state budget. This gives Washington significant sway over the country’s economic and political stability. When the Iraqi government asked U.S. troops to leave the country in 2020, Washington reportedly threatened to cut Iraq’s access to the New York Federal Reserve funds, with Baghdad ultimately backing down. While the Iraqi government has gained more control over its financial affairs since the early years of the U.S. occupation, the ongoing relationship highlights the enduring influence of the U.S. on Iraq’s economic landscape, even as the country seeks to assert its sovereignty and independence.

This is the time to end the arrangement. Go to China. Ask them for an account and for a credit equal to the amount now held in American hands. It’s hard to get an accurate figure, but it’s not that large, perhaps a hundred billion or so (that may seem like real money, it isn’t.)

Switch to selling oil in Yuan, the Chinese have a banking system which completely routes around SWIFT. Then just sell their oil to China and other countries who use the system: there’s more than enough demand, especially right now. Iran will let Iraqi oil out, especially under these circumstances. And who needs dollars any more? Anything Iraq needs it can buy from China in Yuan.

Now, Saddam’s revenge.

If you’re old enough you remember the first Gulf War. Iraq invaded Kuwait. Saddam had asked for permission from the US and the response was one Saddam believed was positive. And, after all, Saddam had fought an entire very destructive war against Iran for the US: he was an American proxy. Kuwait was created explicitly over a huge oil reserve as a way of keeping it from Iraq, which it really should be part of: it’s a colonial era legacy state.

Well, the US didn’t approve and the Iraqis got slaughtered, their power, sewage and water infrastructure was systematically destroyed, then Clinton subjected them to savage sanctions which killed million. Estimates of child casualties were over 500,000, based on population studies. Clinton’s secretary of state, Madeline Albright, when asked about this, infamously replied that the deaths were “worth it.”

Anyway, Kuwait’s military is a joke, it’s right next to Iraq and conquering it would be trivial, since there’s no easy way for the US to get troops there. So, switch to China and the Yuan, finish kicking the Americans out, and conquer Kuwait. (No one will cry, Kuwait’s rulers are absolute scum.)

This is a historic opportunity for Iraq, and they should take it.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – March 29, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – March 29, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

Tell Your State To Pass This No-ICE-At-Our-Precincts Model Law. Now.

Josh Marshall, March 27, 2026 [Talking Points Memo]

 I found a piece of model legislation published on March 9th by the Brennan Center.

 

 

War

Plans, Platforms And Projectiles — The longer-term meaning of the Iran war.

Aurelien, Mar 25, 2026

…the lack of a strategy for Iran—as opposed to a generalised aspiration to do harm when the opportunity presented itself—meant that the US was not really prepared for this war, and that the effects on US power and on its economy and its political and military system, will accordingly be a lot more severe than they might otherwise have been….

…For this reason, as for others I’ll touch on, it seems highly unlikely that there will be a “deal,” with Iran, let alone a detailed agreement. If you can’t even decide what you want, it’s hard to persuade someone to give it to you….

[TW: Worth reading to the end and their discussion of the high-tech “platform warfare” the US developed during the cold war, and which all its expensive weapons systems are oriented around, versus the “projectile warfare” which is now emerging in the context of drones and inexpensive precision guidance. It appears that the Iranians decided to orient their military to “projectile warfare” and are damn good at it.]

 

America is Achieving Full-Spectrum Energy Dominance — And Nobody is Paying Attention 

[BettBeat Media, via Naked Capitalism 03-23-2025]

…I have said it many times, and I will say it again: the United States does not lose wars. If it did, it would stop waging them. Whether Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, or Libya — failed states are not failures of Empire. They are the victories of Empire. And Empire is on a roll.

Now the same chorus rises over Iran. Left and right, the refrain is identical: this will be a disaster, America is overreaching, Iran will be its graveyard. The same voices. The same blindness. The same century-old script….

…Medhurst argues that the United States, far from stumbling into another disastrous West Asian quagmire, is executing a calculated seizure of the planet’s energy supply — and that the wars on Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, and now Iran are not separate blunders but sequential steps toward a single goal: total energy dominance. He coins a term for the endgame: the “petro-gas dollar” or the “LNG dollar.” Let us see if the term deserves to stick….

 

 

Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance 

[Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies]

 

 

Iran’s Ultimatum

Kevin MacDonald, March 22, 2026 [theoccidentalobserver.net]

“We are at war with the Epstein people. The people eating, frying, and raping kids…”

[X-Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 03-25-2025]

Incredible quotes in the deleted Telegraph article about the Lebanese Christians supporting Hezbollah. I wonder why they didn’t want their audience to read this:
“We are at war with the Epstein people. The people eating, frying, and raping kids… the worst part is they are the ones that rule the world.”

 

 

It’s Getting Close to Clear How the War Will Turn Out — Data is available now — there aren’t many paths

Thomas Neuburger, Mar 26, 2026 [God’s Spies]

1. Israelis may well be close to a breaking point

Listen to Lawrence Wilkerson in the following video. The first six minutes is enough, though the rest is fascinating. Wilkerson says, from information he gets privately and from pirated Israeli videos he has seen, that 1) Israel is “flat being devastated” (his emphasis), “literally being ripped apart,” and 2) their casualties could be five to ten times more than what they’ve announced.

2. Israel’s air defense could be close to collapse

Former Pentagon war planner and MIT professor Ted Postol reinforces the point above. In addition, he thinks, now that Israeli air defense radar has been put out of action, Iranian drones, highly accurate, are now unstoppable, as are its armada of super-speed, high-damage missiles like the Fattah and Khorramshahr series.

Because of this, “Iran is now beginning to bring the full weight of its strike capabilities to bear on Israel and the military installations in the Persian Gulf” (9:33 in the video below). He anticipates increased desperation on the part of the Israeli government….

[TW: Most observers who aren’t right wing nutters have said, regarding bombing Iran, that air campaigns have never won a war or even led to a loss of morale by those being bombed. Actually bombing stiffens resistance. I think the same will apply to Israel. In fact, because they faced extermination in the Holocaust, Israelis will probably never lose resolve. That also makes it unlikely they will be willing to accept anything less than defeat and destruction of Iran.]

 

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