Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Sean Paul Kelley Page 1 of 5

'89-'93 BA History, Houston
'95-'07 Morgan Stanley, Associate Vice President
'99-'02 MS International Relations and Economic Development, Saint Mary's University
'07-'13 International Software Sales Manager, Singapore
'13-'16 MA, History, Thesis on Ancient Silk Road City of Merv, UTSA
Kelley lives in San Antonio, Texas.

Verdun Then and Now

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On July 1, 2025

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Thirty-one years ago on my first trip overseas I visited Verdun in France. Specifically to see the battlefield of Verdun, where von Falkenhayn sought to bleed the French white. From 21 February 1916 to 18 December 1916, 9 months, 3 weeks and 6 days the Boche–the term the French used for the Germans–did exactly that. I’d written my senior’s honor thesis in history on Verdun and felt it was right to visit.

Fallen Lion of France at the Verdun Battlefield

I’m not going to go into too much detail. You can read about it in its fullness here. I only want to add a few things. First, this was the first time any general attempted a strategy of attrition. Some of what Grant did during the Wilderness and the siege of Fredricksburg is semi-attritional, but it wasn’t Grant’s spoken intent as it was the explicit aim of the Cheif of the German General Staff Erich von Falkenhayn’s. He knew he could not break through the ring of forts surrounding the Meuse Heights and the medieval city of Verdun. His aim was to take the heights and dig in and then take the strategic defensive, forcing France to regain her honor at any cost. 50 German divisions squared off against 75 French. von Falkenhayn succeeded in forcing France’s hand, certainly. In the end his strategy was a failure and he was dismissed by the Kaiser and replaced by Ludendorff and Hindenburg, who quickly established a military dictatorship over the Second Reich for the remainder of the war. Needless to say that over a million men–French and German–died fighting in the trenches along and up the heights and into the forts Douamont and Vaux trading them back several times.

Fort Douamont on the Meuse Heights

If the Miracle on the Marne was the most important battle of the 20th century–and it was we ought paraphrase Churchill and call it France’s finest hour. That being so makes the Battle of Verdun one the finest last stands in the annals of human endeavor. To a man the good, stolid French poilus stood and died in the mud, the filth, the lice, the decaying bodies and the artillery shells shattering overhead all day long, every day for almost a year.

When I visited in 1994 I walked from the city of Verdun all the way up the heights along the single supply route the French called the “voie sacrée” – the sacred way. It was ten miles there and ten miles back. A long day. I walked through trenches, both forts Douamont and Vaux and at the end of the day I walked, rather solemnly through the hallowed arches of the Ossuary, which holds the bones of over 130,000 unidentified French and German soldiers. There was no entrance fee for anything and I was free to roam just about anywhere I wished, except when I saw signs that declared, “Non! Munitions non explosées!” Unexploded ordnance, still active almost a hundred years after being fired.

Ossuary of Verdun

So this morning I watched a video made by a young French woman of the battlefield and its environs. A lot has changed. There is a new, modern museum, and to walk the grounds and see the museum cost about $20. The young woman does an admirable job of guiding the viewer through the most important parts of what I now guess is a monument park of sorts called Mémorial de Verdun Champ de bataille. She’s tactful, sincere, respectful and cognizant of the sacrifice the men made for her. She honors them in her own way. I was pleased to see their sacrifice is still remembered and revered. (As some of you may recall, I had the good fortune to befriend an American WWI veteran in the 1990s before he passed away. So, WWI is important to me, I carry the memory of one of the last American soldiers to fight in the war and I cherish that memory.) She also pays her respects to the Germans who fell during the battle (part of the site was re-dedicated in the 50’s after the Franco-German rapproachment after WWII). She even visited the graves of our doughboys who fought in the area in 1918.

In all honesty, I can’t say I would have enjoyed walking through the museum. Of course seeing the uniforms and the kit of the poilus was fascinating, but there was a rich, chilling awe of gravitas to my imagination that day as I walked through the empty echoing halls of forts Douamont and Vaux. There were no wax figures as there are now. Only a haunting silence. If I listened closely enough I could almost hear the distant echoes of incoming artillery. The shots of mausers. The cracks of the countering French Berthiers. And the loud pops and booms of French and German grenades.

Sometimes less is more.

Regardless, it was an unforgetable experience.

The Changing Interpretations of Gobekli Tepe

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On June 30, 2025

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The foreman in 2008 and his sons offer me tea.

Before Gobekli Tepe became an internet sensation due to psuedo-archeologist Graham Hancock, I visited the site in 2008. That was 17 years ago. It was not a tourist site at the time, it was a working archeological dig. I was greeted by the foreman, and I asked if I could take photos. He said yes, and I did. Some of you might recall them. Here is what it looked like then, and here is a link to the photos:

Gobekli Tepe in 2008

Here is how awful it looks now:

Gobekli Tepe at present

That’s a lot of change. The Turkish government co-opted it for its own reasons and turned it into a Kurdish-region mega-tourist attraction in as a way of asserting some control, but also as a way of dishing out some money to keep the Kurds, at the very least, content. Gobekli Tepe has nothing to do with Turkish history. The site dates back to the Younger Dryas, or, the last Ice Age — it probably dates back further than that. The first interpretation was that it turned our idea of civilization on its head. It went like this: “Before Gobekli Tepe man built the city and then the temple. But at Gobekli they believed the temple came first.” I felt it a compelling reason and I’m a touch saddened it has been revised. But that is how empircal data works. This view has now been revised. Here is a shortish video discussing the dating issues. A key point he makes in his video is that there is real specialization in labor. A division in labor. Not a collection of hunter gathers but proto-civilization, if you will. If you really want to do a deep dive on this very important subject I cannot recommend Ancient Architects highly enough. This video and this video are a great place to begin. What ever you do, do not listen to Graham Hancock. He is full of shit. The bottom line is that Gobekli Tepe is only one site now considered a part of the Taş Tepeler civilization in the highlands of southern Anatolia. There are between 40-80 sites in a 250 square mile area in the highlands above the headwaters of the Balikh River and the Harran Plain–Turkey’s gateway to Mesopotamia–and where the Roman general Crassus died at the battle of Carrhae in 53 BC.

The battlefield of Carrhae, where Crassus died, smack in the middle of Turkish Mesopotamia.

That’s simply huge. And that there was lots of trial and error going on there about domesticating all kinds of things. Plus, pottery has been found and dated at one site to the pre-pottery neolithic! I recommend we rename the pretty pottery neolithic to something else, please?

Last thought, Slovenian political scientist Samo Burja has an absolutely compelling essay based on Gobekli Tepe and other archeological sites on how civilization might be very much older than we currently believe. He speculates there is a real possibility that in our lifetimes we might discover attempts at it close to 100,000 years old. Given what I have seen, I would not be surprised if he were very close to correct.

Give some of the videos a watch if your inclined in the speculation on our origins, like I am.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of this site’s articles, you might wish to Subscribe or donate. The site has over over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

Russo-Ukraine War Update June 30, 2025

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On June 30, 2025

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Before we get into the most recent developments of the war between Russia and the Ukraine, I want to focus a little bit about how Russia is outstripping the West technology-wise. We all know necessity is the mother of all invention. And war is the mother of all necessity. The Russians haven’t missed a beat innovating. One of the most terrifying weapon systems in Russia’s developing arsenal are its multifarious thermobaric weapon systems. They now have at least three operating platforms to deliver these utterly destructive weapons. Thermobaric weapons are not illegal under the rules of war. They are accepted as valid and while the Ukrainians might complain, no one is listening.

If you recall the MOAB–so called Mother of all Bombs, was a thermobaric weapon. Thermobaric weapons explode and aerosolize fuel in the air before they ignite. They are designed to destroy bunkers, and killl everyone in them. The United States has not developed them futher, resting on their laurels as they have no need to do so, so they think.

Not so Russia. Here is a primer on thermobaric weapons. Here is a primer in a more Russo-Ukraine conflict context. So far the US has only developed a thermobaric grenade, the MOAB, the Hellfire missile and one for a minor Marine rocket launcher. That is the limit of US innovation.

TOS-1A on a T-72 tank chassis.

The Russians on the other hand have taken things a lot further. First, the MOAB destructive power is 9.8 tonnes. The Russian version, dubbed the FOAB (father), is the equivalent of 44.4 tonnes. But the Russian version of the bomb is overkill and the Russians know it, using it only sparingly. Instead they developed a launch system of 24 thermobaric rockts placed on top of a T-72 tank chassis with a maximum range of about 6 kilometers, called the TOS-1A. Many of the TOS-1A were destroyed early in the war. The TOS-1A could be spotted and destroyed by some of the more advanced counter-artillery weapons systems the West gave the Ukrainians. So, the Russians, as trench, fortified and urban warfare became more prevalent, reboubled their efforts.

TOS-2, mounted on a six wheeled Ural.

The Russians soon upgraded the TOS-1A with the TOS-2. The TOS-2 is based on a wheeled vehicle for better shoot and scoot capability to avoid being blown up by counter battery attacks. The rockets are more lethal–having flecks of magnesium and aluminum to make them hotter (tests are ongoing with nanofuels) and have a range of almost 15 kilometers. It is also equipped with modern sights and target navigation systems, I beleive based on Russia’s GLONASS, their version of GPS satellite targeting. TOS-2 vehicles can self reload, and come equipped with electronic warfare jamming systems. Here is the first of two videos, made within the last two months showing the devastation the TOS-2 system, which recently underwent an upgrade, can do to Ukrainian lines. Here is the second. Warning to the viewer: these are real scenes of war. Viewer discretion advised.

Iskander Misiles topped with thermobaric warheads.

Moreover, even the much vaunted Iskander ballistic missile can be mounted with a 700 kg thermobaric warhead. The list of Russian thermobaric weapons is simply to long to itemize and discuss. The important fact here is that the United States has no answer to weapons like this. The Russians have officially incorporated these fearsome weapons into their artillery doctrine and are now using them all across the front lines to destroy bunkers, trenches and near the front hardened command centers. The results, per the CIA (arguably not the most trustworthy source, but it’s what I got) describe horrifying results:

the effect of a [thermobaric] explosion within confined spaces is immense. Those near the ignition point are [incenerated]. Those at the fringe are likely to suffer many internal, invisible injuries, including burst eardrums and crushed inner ear organs, severe concussions, ruptured lungs and internal organs, and possibly blindness.

Not to mention the harderned structures they are sheltering in collapse on top of them. It has been frequently reported that many Ukrainian soldiers who experience such explosions and survive surrender immediately, the psychological effect is that crippling. The pressure on the front and the Ukrainian infantryman gets greater and greater every day.

Five quick links. This first one is worth everyone’s time because it actually destroys a BBC article based on Russia’s neglect of Mariopol, a town it took early in the war and supposedly has left to rot, per the BBC. The video proves the exact opposite. Watch it here.

Second, brutal attacks on Kremenchuk, and third Russia prepares to storm Pokhrovsk.

Third, a brief summary of Russian advances along the line of contact and a Ukrainian counter-attack.Worth the 3.34 minutes of the video.

Lastly, a pretty respectful and wide ranging conversation between an American interviewer and the Russian ambassador to the UN. Longish but all in English and worth watching. It’s a rare example of no-bullshit in my opinion.

More as it develops.

The Term Toxic Masculinity Is Nothing But a Gratuitous Insult to Men

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On June 27, 2025

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Only a woman with solid feminist bona fides can makethis argument in the modern US. The high-tech economy has leveled the playing field between men and women. This is a great development. But the argument ignores, as does the Democratic party in general, a larger reality: blue-collar men. White-collar men are now indoctrinated in high school and college how to behave around women. But blue-collar men are not. And there are more of them than white-collar Ivy Leaguers. Give the video a watch. It’s refreshing.

 

On a similar note, about American culture in general, this woman makes a very trenchant critique about us: “A culture that believes in nothing and tolerates everything is doomed.” 

The War in Ukraine Enters A New Phase

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On June 26, 2025

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The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2021-present has entered a new phase. In the wake of the Ukraine’s hybrid/asymmetric attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet (a.k.a., Operation Spiderweb), Russia is getting its revenge in the smartest way possible. Russia has begun a massive, month-long air/missile/drone campaign that is systematically attacking command and control centers all over the country. The latest was a Russian X-22 missile attack on a former drilling rig disguised as a seaborne command and control center. A Tu-22M3 Backfire bomber launched the X-22 cruise missile where it reached Mach 4 and then dove into the command center and obliterated it. There are dozens of videos out now on reputable sites indicating this campaign is ongoing and will continue.

Couple that withpolling data coming out of the Ukraine where 73.2 percent of Ukrainians polled believe the conflict should end along the current line of control, and it just gets worse.

This is very, very bad news for Ukraine. This might not be the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the middle.

The site for reasonably unbiased updates is Military TV. But, viewer beware, this is uncensored warfare.

UPDATE: At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, which I watched in Russian — the translators often miss subtle points. Putin was talking about how Russia always respected Ukraine’s right to independence, and he gave an enormous amount of context in his answers, but, when it came to discussing Russia’s army moving into new regions in relation to Ukraine’s independence, he did so in the Russian past perfect aspect. Russian verbs have tense. But they also have aspect, meaning is an action fully completed, or temporarily or ongoing, etc. Putins use of the past perfect aspect signifies to me two things: 1) Putin has come around to the necessity of destroying the Zelensky regime, and the will of the Ukrainian people, and; 2) Following on logically, peace will not be negotiated; it willl be dictated, and there is fuck all Ukraine can do now except suffer for the deceitful sins of the West.

UPDATE 2: Medvedev just announced that Ukraine will not be allowed to enter the EU. At one time, Russia was fine with Ukrainian EU membership — so long as it remained militarily neutral, like Austria. In Medvedev owns words (apologies in advance for the terrible translation): “Brussels today is a real enemy of Russia. In such a distorted form, the European Union is no less a threat to us than the North Atlantic Alliance. Therefore, the complacent slogan, “Join anywhere but NATO” must be adjusted. Thus, the so-called Ukraine in the EU is a danger for our country. There are two ways to stop this danger: A) Either the EU itself must realize that it does not need the Kiev quasi-state, in principle, or a certainly preferable; B) There is simply no one to join the EU.”

Medvedev is always the one who lets the trial balloon loose, so it is only a matter of time until Putin makes options A and B into official Russian policy.

Losing Our Asian Allies – And Fast

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On June 25, 2025

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Ian in his last post mentioned that our Asian allies are slipping away from us. While we pretend to strategically re-orient the Japanese are engaging in massive rearmament begun by Abe and being continued by the current government. Japan has lost confidence in the American security umbrella because of the deceit we’ve displayed in foreign relations. The Koreans? I lived in Korea. They’re simply apoplectic. Some are even at the point where they are willing to consider a loose confederation with the north, an entente of sorts so the South has the protection of the North’s nuclear umbrella and the North gains goods and services from the South.

This is simply unheard of. When I talked to one of my former students who now works in the foreign ministry and he told me this I was gobsmacked.

Ian’s correct. For 400 years the balance of payments from the rest of the world went to the Littoral seapower states. For the last 50 years the balance of payments has been reversed.  All that gold is going back home. In one generation the United States has squandered all the goodwill and wealth it received during WWI and WWII. China in the last 50 years has lifted more people out of poverty than the rest of the world did during all of recorded history. Chew on that stat for a moment.

I will be visiting China and South Korea to do a 20 year retrospective tour and a 30 year retrospective tour on the former and the latter. I don’t know what to expect, but I remember China 20 years ago and being blown away.

The USA is in deep strategic shit. For 200+ years our power has been based on our complete hegemony of this hemisphere. For 75 of the last 100 years our main strategic goal has been the prevention of one power or an alliance of powers attaining hegemonic power over the Eurasian landmass. In the last six years we’ve abandoned that VITAL national interest for what? We’ve driven Russia into the arms of China. India lost all confidence in us. Now East Asia has.

If a single power or coalition of powers dominate the Eurasian landmass our two oceans will not protect us.

It appears I might have been wrong about the Israeli-Iran pissing contest being the opening act of WWIII. Good. What it really feels like is the first Balkan War in 1912. The calculus is being made in Beijing. And Tokyo. And Seoul. And Taipei. We lack the ability to protect our allies conventionally. And no one wants nukes.

I don’t have any smart quip to conclude with except a Spanish expletive, “la puebla es jodida.”

You get the idea.

A Deluge of Metanarrative Bullshit

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On June 24, 2025

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Anytime, anyone, anywhere begins an argument or uses the word “narrative” my bullshit detector goes off. Because it’s a nonsense construct.

My suggestion is to follow French philosopher Jean-François Lyotards definition of “narrative.” He said: “Simplifying to the extreme, I define postmodern as incredulity toward metanarratives.”

So, if you hear someone use the term in a conversation, one of three things can happen: You can choose to remain willfully ignorant (I doubt many in this crowd would pursue this course), your bullshit detector can go off (like mine), and you can begin an argument, or you can simply sit with a Cheshire cat grin on your face and be skeptical.

But chose one, please.

Wars Metastisize

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On June 22, 2025

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The title says it all. So did Clausewitz.

We committed an act of war against a sovereign state that had every right to peaceful nuclear power.

Tulsi Gabbard told Donald Trump in March that Iran had NO nuclear weapons program.

There is a huge difference between radio medcine and nuclear power, and a nuclear weapons program. Iran has the former by legal right under the NNPT and does not, nor has plans for the latter.

This war will spiral out of control, just like the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in July 1914.

Prepare yourselves. We will all suffer before this is over.

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