The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Sean Paul Kelley Page 1 of 10

'89-'93 BA History, Houston
'95-'07 Morgan Stanley, Associate Vice President
'99-'02 MS International Relations and Economic Development, Saint Mary's University
'07-'13 International Software Sales Manager, Singapore
'13-'16 MA, History, Thesis on Ancient Silk Road City of Merv, UTSA
Kelley lives in San Antonio, Texas.

Saturday Morning Grab Bag Of Baddies and Goodies

~by Sean Paul Kelley

I’ll begin, as usual, with the economy. JP Morgan lays odds for a global recession at 60% now. Causes? According to JPMorgan it’s threefold: the conflict in Iran, the tariffs and AI. But JP Morgan is forgetting another huge variable, the private credit/shadow credit unwind happening in real time. Blackrock halted redemptions from its flagship debt fund to the tune of $1.2bn. Blackrock to investors: fuck off. Blackrock’s fuckery marks the third private credit shop in the last three months to shut investor redemptions down: first Blue Owl, then Blackstone and now Blackrock. 

As Dario intones ruefully, “Mark my words, the damage to the financial system the private credit space will cause will be greater by many orders of magnitude than the one subprime caused in 2008.” I’m pretty well convinced he’s right. That said, the political will to backstop another financial crisis has not eroded totally, so the emerging credit crunch will be the last one backstopped by the Fed and/or Congress. 

Another variable JP Morgan doesn’t address is the most recent (un)employment numbers. If the first reported, non-revised numbers of a -92,000 jobs is any indication, once the numbers are revised, February’s numbers are likely to resemble a catastrophe. 

On the ugly, catastrophe side of things, Dubai has only ten days of fresh food remaining if the Straits remain closed. I suppose they can eat dates, no? 

Also of note, The Reptile, aka Peter Thiel (yes, it’s a real anagram, google it if you donnae believe me!), dumped 2 million shares of Palantir. It’s a bright flashing red light, a semaphore both unmistakable and of serious consequence, when top execs dump shares of the corps they run. They are cashing out, leaving the equity collapse in the hands of suckers, ermm, retail investors, widows and orphans-like. 

If you want a fuller understanding of the logic logic behind Iran’s attacks on the region’s infrastructure, read here. Speaking of oil, one can’t fix stupid. Shorting oil in this kind of risk environment is nucking futs.

Maintaining our focus on petroleum for a bit longer, I have to note, if oil breaks bad to the north, past say $120, the resulting global recession will have deleterious effects on commodities, especially gold and silver. But more gold than silver, as the silver supply-demand equation has been so structurally out of whack for so long, the recession would have to be almost depression-like to impose enough demand destruction for the price to sink below the mid $70s.

Sticking with petrol it appears the Euros might come a begging to Czar Pootie-poot for gas and oil the longer the Straits remain inaccesible. Apparently Czar Vladimir has already hinted the Euros can, in Russian, “пошел нахуй.” I’m sure you can suss the meaning out of that one. If true, this volte face by the Euros is staggering in its hyprocrisy and implications. But it is far from surprising. Anyone with a halfway decent brain on their head could have seen this ugly denouement coming a mile away. Wait, a kilometer and some change. Yeah, ‘Muricans can do metric!

In genuinely good news, Indonesia has enacted a total and complete ban on the riding of elephants. When I traveled in South East Asia I refused to ride any elephants, they are too sensitive emotionally and very much deserving of my respect. As I note on X: 

This is supremely welcome humane news. The limbic system in elephants is so extensive and well developed it creates “profound emotional intelligence, long-term memory, and social bonds [in elephants.] [Their] brain structure allows for intense empathy, mourning, [and] social cohesion,” making them closer to humans in social development than any other class of animals than primates and ceteceans.

Check out the photo of an elephant getting frisky with me. Suprised me to no end, you can see it in my face. This news makes me smile and happy. Somewhere somebody is doing something right. Faith in humanity remains unrestored, but a credit has been added to the depleted account of faith, nonetheless. One of my finest memories is seeing a herd of wild elephants emerging out of the bush about sixty miles south of Mysore, India in 2009. Wild effing elephants. How cool is that? Portions of my life have been truly charmed and I’m grateful.

Speaking of memories, I was only five years old when Nadia Comaneci stuck 7 perfecf tens at the 1976 Summer Olympics in Montreal, but even then I knew I was witnessing something very special. My view hasn’t changed in 50 years. And her performance is as elegant and perfect as it was then.

How about some music on this fine March Saturday morning? I’ll note in brief the quiet but powerful resurgence of political and human vitality to American music. As I post regarding Tyler Childers:

Tyler Childers’ song, “White House Road”, written in 2017, paints a generalized portrait of American misfortune and hardship, but uses the patois of the Appalachian South in particular to stoke the emotions of the listener. And it’s why Childer’s imagery works no matter where you live in the US-hell, it’s almost Dickensian and could be anywhere. The tune’s poignance is just that brutally authentic and powerfully magnetic.

Don’t, for a second, confuse this with C&W. It ain’t that. This is threadbare roots Americana. If this doesn’t stir your heart, you don’t have one. 

The raw explosive emotion of Childer’s lyricism propels a simple 3-chord song (E-D-A) across the ragged, tragic and increasingly impoverished tableau of a decomposing America. Childers tells an old rural story, but ‘makes it new’ as Ezra Pound frequently exhorted young writers and poets. Indeed, there is a touch of Chris Whitley’s muse to this song.
 
Childers voice is a beacon of distress, masquerading as joy, “a damn good feeling to run these roads.” He sings.”Get me drinkin’ that moonshine/Get me higher than the grocery bill/Take my troubles to the highwall/Throw’em in the river and get your fill.”

His distress is amplified by his vocal register; and his range acts like the kinetic tension in an unsprung faucet, Schrodinger-like: at once blowing in a soft mountain drawl, only to tornado-up into a raspy hard emotional sucker punch landing on your solar-plexus and leaving you breathless. 
 
Tyler is proof that there are only two types of music: good music and bad music.
 
I dare you to listen and not stomp your feet.

More to the point, Jack White has single-handedly reinvented and fused Delta blues, Chicago blues and rock music right back into political and cultural relevance. One example is the global adoption of his anthemic Seven Nation Army.

His appearance on SNL in 2020 is another solid proof of concept.

Honorable mention goes to the Stone Foxes and their fantastic and criminally underrated retelling of the death of Delta Blues legend Robert Johnson, “I killed Robert Johnson.” The song is 15 years old. So what, it’s aged well.

While you’re at it, this lovely morning, check out this music here and rock out to this and this. The last two are representitive of a new breed of American rock bands. You won’t hear ’em on the radio, but rock is alive. And that’s a good thing, like this cover of Dancing in the Street, by the Struts.

Who ever talks about modern dance, or takes an interest in it ought give this video a solid once over: the choreogrpahy on display is a stuning blend of traditonal renaissance era galliard or volta, early Appalachian line dancing and urban American break dance, yeah, break dancing, for a tune straight out of my Scotch-Irish heritage

While you’re at it, check out this Ryan Adams cover of the Iron Maiden classic, Wasted Years.

Last one, I promise, this Band of Heathens song, “Hanging Tree,” eeriely echoes old-timey Protestant hymns sung by a choir, except it’s about infideltiy and damn near a murder ballad. It’s about 15 years old, as well, but it has aged like a fine Irish whiskey. Lastly, I have rarely in life coveted anything. And I use the word ‘covet’ purposefully. But that Dobro he’s playing in the video: me want one something fierce. But I’m left handed and those cost upwards of $1500. Ouch!

More if it happens. Maybe.

Nota bene: Apparently Kuwait Oil has declared force majeure on oil sales. That’s not confirmed, but plausible and bad news if true. As one commenter in the X thread linked wryly noted, “You know shit has hit the fan when you have to start using French terms.”

LMFAO.

There Is Stupid and Then There Is Superhuman Stupid

~by Sean Paul Kelley

How about we review Cipollla’s Five Rules of Human Stupidity? 

One: Everyone always and inevitably underestimates the number of stupid people in circulation.

Two: The probability that a person is stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

Three: A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or group of people when he or she does not benefit and may even suffer losses.

Four: Non-stupid people always underestimate the destructive power of stupid individuals.

Five: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.

Rumors persist on Wall Street for a second day, natch, for a day and a bit cause it’s early yet. But the rumors are several institutional investors, read hedge funds or investment banks like Morgan or Goldman, are desperate to unload large naked shorts on oil futures.

WTI has risen from $58 to $77 in less than 30 days. Brent has spiked in a similar fashion. Urals Crude is trading between $57-$65, higher than just a few weeks ago when it traded between $45-$50.

Today is the day I cease underestimating just how stupid, stupid can get. It’s like “killing the chicken to scare the monkeys” levels of stupid have taken over. 

 

The Doom Spiral Of Executive Decision Making

~by Sean Paul Kelley

A tweet I encountered last night and obsessed over as I followed its logic all the way to the bottom terrified me in its potential implications. The poster links to another poster highlighting a few Euro press releases lambasting Iran for such a disproportionate response to our unprovoked attack and ends with this question:

“I want to know what they think is a “proportionate” response when invaders assassinate your head of state and civilian leaders in an explicit campaign to destroy your government?”

So, follow my logic here. I replied to their posts with the following:

This is exactly what terrifies me about Operation Epstein Fury: Trump cannot abide defeat in any way. It’s seen as a personal rebuke to his idand his constant self-aggrandizement. Moreover, the more the US is percieved to lose–the US embodied by Trump’s idand what it loses in reality, is blamed on Iran and its evil.

No introspection from the Empire of Chaos.

No acknowledgement that we started this war.

As American losses mount and Trump’s prestige fades, the doom spiral of executive decision making begins.

As my father has always said, “there is nothing more dangerous than a coward,” which is what Trump is.

And a coward in a doom spiral with his finger on the button terrifies me to the core.

As it should terrify us all.”

Yup, I’m talking about Trump’s id. He’s a walking manifestation of the human id. He’s the epitome of Freud’s id.

The possibility of him driving humanity off a cliff is NON-ZERO. Slight, yes, but what could a man such as he do in a state of desperation?

Short Take on Iran, Russia and the Ukraine: Cui Bono?

~by Sean Paul Kelley

Cui bono? (From the Latin, who stands to gain?) Who benefits from our war on Iran, internationally speaking? And who loses?

First, the Ukraine loses bad the longer the attack on Iran continues, as all the oxygen is sucked into a vortext surrounding the Persian Gulf. All the weapon systems the Ukraine desperately needs are being consumed rapidly over the skies of Iran and the Gulf States. This will undoubtedly hasten the Ukrainian Armed Forces collapse as a meaningful battlefield foe. Score one for Russia.

Second, energy prices will rise, and if the Straits of Hormuz get shut the Europeans will have to re-evaluate their energy supplies vis-a-vis Russia. Score two for Russia. Also, score one for Texas oilmen, who have watched WTI rise from $58 a barrel a month ago to $73.78. Royalty checks be getting phat!

Third, diplomatic pressure will decrease on Pootie-poot and Lavrov due to European energy desperation and all the diplo-oxygen being sucked out of the UN and other multi-lateral forumns, as if a thermobaric bomb went off. This widens Putin’s and Lavrov’s room to manuever even more. It also increases the chance Russia delivers a devastating denouement to the ‘Rules Based Order’ with an unmistakable battlefield victory. As my teachers said about school-yard fights when I was growing up (I went to an all boys school most of my life): you get your ass whooped, you probably deserved it. Score three for Russia.

Fourth, with the US murder/assassination of Iran’s Surpreme leader the precedent has been set, nay, locked the fuck in, for Russia to lob an Oreshnik or two Zelensky’s way and damn the consequences. The US could hardly protest. Not with a straight face. Score four for the Russkis.

Not to beat a frog at the bottom of a well, as the Chinese proverb goes, but the Ukraine is the biggest loser thus far and Russia the biggest winner as of today. The Euros are losing as well, but seem determined to snatch fantasy from the maw of reality. Israel is also on the losing end. Have you seen some of the explosions in Tel Aviv? This Iranian strike is positively surreal. Looks like that Israeli Iron Dome has turned into an Iranian Golden Shower.

Then again, if Bibi pops off a nuke or two, all bets are off.

Friday Morning Highlights and Lowlifes

~by Sean Paul Kelley

Couple of random notes this Friday morning, mostly economics related, some silver news and my personal reaction to portions of the discusssion in Ian’s “Is Virtue An Advantage Or Disadvantage For Societies?” post.

First, econonomics. It looks more and more like we are heading into a 2008-style credit crisis/crunch.

Don’t believe me? Well, the FED flooded the US banking system with $18.5 billion to ease liquidity concerns during the week of Feb. 17 because cockroaches be busting out of just about every private equity/credit shop present. And we all know, if you just don’t turn on the lights, you don’t see roaches.

These kind of economic events don’t do what you think they are going to do. Many people assume any economic crisis in the US will lead to a rapid dollar hegemony collapse. But as I explain, the dollar will actually get stronger:

“[W]hen the credit crunch gets a full head of steam it won’t lead to reserve status collapse of the dollar. It will, counter-intuitively, but inexorably pump the dollar higher and stronger as NYC becomes a 2008-like Black Hole for cash allocated dollars world wide desperate to fill potential insolvency holes in banks and shadow-banks/private equity credit boutiques . . . . “

That’s what happened in 2008. As I conclude, “Dollar reserve collpase will be a result of national insolvency, not a global credit-crisis/crunch.”

Basically what End Game Macro is saying in this post is the following: the economy grew little to naught post-COVID to present. It basically did what equity markets sometimes do: trade sideways for years, decades even. For example, after the 2008 Financial Crisis the S&P 500 traded sideways for four years until it broke out in late 2012, early 2013. That’w what the US economy has done since 2020: move sideways, although Biden-inspired over-immigration skewed the growth numbers, as End Game Macro notes:

From 2021 to 2024 the U.S. saw over 11 million arrivals, more than 3 million in 2023, and net migration around 2.4 million per year in 2021 to 2023. That can lift GDP and payrolls while masking weaker per capita momentum. As the surge cools, the masking fades.”

I’m not being anti-immigrant here, I’m just stating the facts. As Trump dug his heels in and unleashed his ICE goons, the econ surge faded, and fast. End Game Macro also notes, a lá 2008 that system-wide credit stress is popping up whack-a-mole like in almost every category:

“As of February 2026 serious delinquency is flashing late cycle strain. Auto loans 5.2 percent, credit cards 12.7 percent, student loans 9.6 percent 90+ days past due with estimates as high as 16.3 percent turning delinquent late 2025, and FHA delinquency 11.52 percent. Job quality also reflects strain.”

And I’m not even going to touch on the downward revisions to US employment except to say we’ve not gained a single job, but actually lost millions. The BLS hints at the size of the disaster in jobs “recovery.”

Last econ note: big move in India just confirms my thesis/argument/assertion that the combined wealth of the West is undergoing a multi-decade transfer back to the East:

For decades, the price of silver in India—the “diamond hands” of the silver world—was dictated by a small group in London and USA. Indian ETFs used the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) prices, which often had nothing to do with the actual physical demand on the ground in India.

The Move:

On February 26, 2026, SEBI officially announced that starting April 1, 2026, Indian mutual funds and ETFs will no longer rely solely on London’s “AM fixing” prices. Instead, valuation will be based on polled spot prices from recognized domestic exchanges like the MCX.”

That’s one serious high hard one to the Comex and LBMA! This is a big fucking deal.

Next up: war in the Ukraine.

I’ve repeatedly argued that the Ukraine has lost all any and all possibility of regaining strategic initiative, and this reinforces it, way wickedly:

As I have noted ad nauseam for months now: the #Ukraine has lost any chance to sieze the initiative on the battlefield. All the #AFU can do is ineffectively counter-attack like a punch-drunk boxer. Trading lives for time will not work out for #Zelensky in the end and the end is coming sooner than he thinks.

On that note, the Red Cross confirms the Ukrainian to Russian KIA ratio. And it is bloody awful: 34/1. People often tell me that my belief in realism in foreign affairs is deeply immoral. Fuck that shit. International liberal hegemony is 100% at fault for all the deaths in the Ukraine. All. Of. Them. The denizens of Davos are uttely complicit.

In another grim note: Russia is in the initial stages of attacking The Big Banana. For the first time artillery shells are falling down with impunity on the city of Kramatorsk, like rain does on an average Portland Wednesday.

In regards to the conversation on Virtue and especially regarding the 800,000,000 number of Chinese lifted out of poverty. Well, Ian is correct. I did the numbers here back in September.

As regards Chinese leaders being better or worse than those in the West, especially the US: Ian, again is correct. The best way to view the argument is by winnowing it down to two prepositions. The Western view of liberty has its origins in peasant upward mobility in the aftermath of the Black Death and the clash of classes. Ergo: in the West we have the freedom “of” speech, assembly, bear arms, etc. . The Chinese view of liberty derives its origins from a long exigetical tradition of the origins and limits of dignity. In essences, the Chinese see liberty as freedom “from” poverty, warlordism, chaos, illness, crime, rapine, etc. . .  Both views are valid. Both views are limited. But at present the Chinese view of liberty is more effective in increasing the common good than that of the West.

On the posssible, now looking more probable, war with Iran, the US has ordered the evacuation of its embassy in Israel. I don’t know what could make it more obvious, you?

More as it happens.

And more happens. This comment by Ray Dalio reminds me when I was a young broker I read Robert Rubin’s memoirs, In an Uncertain World, and took to heart many of his investment rules, going so far as to write many down on old fashioned white catalog cards–this was before the internet, btw! and memorize what I wrote down. Don’t judge me. I was young and dumb.

Love Rubin or hate him, like James Carville said, when I get resurrected I want to come back as thet bond market. Rubin knew how to invest and make consistent returns. So did Barton Biggs, long time chief investment strategist at my alma mater, Morgan Stanley. Those two men shaped my view of economics, markets and political economy more than anyone or anything else. And yes, I read Jesse Livermore’s memoirs. They did little for me precisely because at his heart Livemore was un-disciplined. And discipline is key to making money.

If you take your own advice you’ll do well. If you’re like me and stayed retarded longer than markets remained illogical, well, you’re fucked. If I’d taken my own advice I’d have a small fortune like a handful of former clients do to this day.

One of my key rules: if you want to get rich, speculate in the stock market, but if you want to be truly wealthy, invest in bonds. In other words, the real wealth, massive cash-flow comes from debt service. That’s just an ugly reality humanity has yet to escape.

Another rule to live by: if an investment goes more than 15% against you, cash out. You can recover from a 15% loss, but a 25% or 30% or even 50%? Not a chance in hell. Ever.

Last rule: if you double your money in an investment, sell half of your gain and let the rest ride. I guarantee you’ll never lose a dime on that investment if you follow that rule.

One last comment on Rubin: he was a ‘careful contrarian’ and being a contrarian has served me very, very well. It’s a painful and lonely place to occupy at times so be prepared to man up. In the end recognize when you feel the least amount of risk is the precise moment of the most risk, the instant before you lose your ass.

Maybe more, maybe not. Time dictates all.

So the muse is a fickle-bitch. This analysis of the transcripts of the Trump-Xi phone calls is brutally and hysterically accurate:

This time it’s particularly funny because the Chinese transcript (fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/20) has Xi telling Trump: “It is always right to do a good thing, however small, and always wrong to do a bad thing, however small.” This proverb might not sound like much but it’s actually extremely meaningful when you understand the reference.

The reference comes from the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, China’s Illiad and Odyssey plus the Aeneid and a smattering of Dante’s Inferno for good measure. It’s indicative of how urbane and historically literate the Chinese are. And a clear notice that China is what historians, anthropologists and others of such ilk refer to as a “high context” culture: 

China is a High Context culture, a communicated message has different layers of meaning, While America as majority of the West is Low Context. The other culture/language that is High Context is Arabic. To understand the spoken words one need to be deeply rooted in its culture, its history and religious tradition.

Spoken like a true scholar and humble student.

I want the last word. Heh! But seriously, silver trading at the Comex closes the day sharply higher, firmly walking through a wall of resistance at $92, ending the day at $93.06, up 7%. A very bullish closing price for silver. Silver bugs should sleep happy tonight.

 

 

 

Short Take On Possible/Probable War On Iran

~by Sean Paul Kelley

I don’t know if we’re going to bomb Iran or not. I hope we don’t but hope is not a policy. All I’m left with is my personal experience in Iran and how I go about analyzing foreign affairs.

As many of you know, I’m a realist. Once upon a time, my realism was based on the correlation of powers and what the United States could and couldn’t do with its capabilities so long as they were in line with political adjectives that were achievable.

Today I’m a realist, a chastened realist; more a pragmatist who has withnessed war after war after war lost. I’ve witnessed “Western powers often wage wars disconnected from achievable political outcomes (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya),” instead of aligning the wars with achievable political aims. You know, the exact opposite of Uncle Carl Clausewitz!

Moreoever, my hardcore realism has ameliorated over the years after several long discussions with Ian. Ian’s never been afraid to upbraid me publicly and privately for my quasi imperial impulses. I’m grateful to Ian for helping me see the error of my ways.

But I digress.

I know for certain two things will happen if we attack Iran.

First, based on my experience in Iran, the Iranians will rally around their legitimate government and support it to the end. When I was there the Iranians were warm and engaging. Even the Mullahs at the mosques we visited. But when it came to the subject of US interference in internal Iranian affairs, all were a unified voice: stay out of our government. Seems like a reasonable request, if you ask me.

Take a close look at the photo. A young couple enjoying pizza with my father and I in 2006. This is who we’ll be kiling. They have faces and names.

Second, we will use an enormous amount of ordinance attacking Iran and leave ourselves even more vulnerable than we already are because we have such a shitty military industrial complex that can’t make anything without a long lead time and shit tons of profits. Our defense industry is dominated by general and flag officers on the grift.

Like I said, I don’t know if we’re just posturing or if we’re really gonna attack.

I hope we’re not but I’m afraid we are.

Nota bene: In the comments Nat mentions a depressing X thread worth a read. But if you really want to be depressed check this X thread out where Col. Wilkerson says, “I think Israel will cease to exist unless Netanyahu does turn to a nuclear weapon or two.”

A Story of Iran from 2006 That Deserves To Be Retold

~by Sean Paul Kelley

This narrative originally appeared in the San Antonio Express News on 3/17/2007, which is no longer online. 

Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport is a cheerless backwater, especially at four in the morning, after enduring a ten hour flight to Amsterdam, a nine hour delay, followed by the six hour flight to Tehran. At this hour clearing customs takes an eternity and the only stimulus in the lonely, echoing arrival hall, other than young female passport inspectors sporting lumpy black chadors and henna tattooed hands, is the faded portrait of the Ayatollah Khomenei grimly staring down at those unlucky enough to remain in the customs queue. But that’s how my pilgrimage to Iran began last October, bone-tired, bleary-eyed and ready for whatever came next.

Then, like the click of a slide show I was off to the golden domes of Qom, through elegant Isfahan, the desolate, ancient beauty of Pasagardae and Persepolis and graceful Shiraz. I dashed across the Dasht-i Kavir desert, passing through Yazd long enough to explore its underground aqueducts. I spent one lonely night in Tabas, Queen of the Desert and then to Nishapur the gateway to Khorasan and Iran’s most wrecked, ruined and rebuilt city, which has survived earthquakes, Scythians, Turks, Mongols and Timurids. It was two short weeks of grasping memories from the jealous clutches of time; three thousand years of culture rushed by me in a blur until I arrived in Iran’s holiest city, Meshed, the chief object of my journey.

Once known as Sanabad, it was here, in 817 AD, that the eighth Shi’ite Imam, Reza, a direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, arrived after a triumphant tour of the Shi’a heartland. The Abbasid Caliph Ma’mun, a Sunni, grew jealous of the Imam’s rising popularity and imprisoned him. Fearing the Imam’s growing spiritual authority might mature into something more temporal, something the greedy Caliph could not allow, Ma’mun devised a plot involving pomegranates and poison, which were fed to an unsuspecting Imam who soon fell ill and died.

Immense waves of grief washed over the sands of Persia and the martyred Imam’s tomb quickly became a site of pilgrimage, one that attracted the scattered Shi’a of the Caliph’s far flung empire. Surviving invasions, earthquakes, rapine and ruin, the site, and even the name changed. Sanabad became known as Meshed—‘place of Martyrdom’—and Meshed turned into a booming modern metropolis sitting astride the old Silk Roads, some lead north to Samarkand and China and others west to the Levant and the Italian city states.

I crawled out of the car just as the sun set and walked into the hotel. Members of the Tajik national soccer team milled about the small, two-star hotel lobby; a curious mélange of Tajik, Farsi and Russian filled my ears.

“Passport please,” the attendant asked. I fumbled through my money belt but quickly complied.

I looked up, behind the desk stood a clean shaven young man with slightly receding hair and cheerful, pecan colored eyes.
“American?”

“Yes.”

“How awesome!” he exclaimed in perfect iomatic American English.
“Never met an one of you before,” he blurted excitedly

He came out from around the lobby desk, arms outstretched, exclaiming all in one breath, “This is the best day of my life.”

And hugged me.

After two weeks of kind salutations, warm welcomes and polite, almost infectious pride I still wasn’t prepared for an outpouring quite like this.

“So, now that I’ve hugged a complete stranger, do you have a name?” I joked, awkwardly.

“Amir Isazysadr,” he said, stretching out his hand.

“Sean-Paul Kelley,” I replied.

We shook hands vigorously. Full of contagious enthusiasm, I liked him instantly.

“Why Meshed? It is a big, dusty, ugly city, filled with too many people.”

“Gohar Shad,” I told him, as if in a whisper. “If I’m lucky I will see the Gohar Shad.”

“The mosque surrounding the Shrine of the Imam Reza is splendid,” he said.

“Are you Muslim?” he asked.

“No, I am not.”

“That is a pity my friend, because one pilgrimage to the Shrine of the Imam Reza is equal to 17,000 Meccan pilgrimages, or so say the mullahs.”

Between the late 9th and 14th centuries the area surrounding Meshed witnessed the collapse of the Abbasid Caliphate, an irruption of Turkic hordes into Persia and then the Mongol cataclysm. Through it all the pilgrims returned. Finally, Tamerlane’s son Shah Rukh, who, faced with the growing demands of pilgrims, enlarged the shrine in the early 15th century. His formidable wife, Gohar Shad, ordered the construction of a new congregational mosque around the Imam’s tomb as well, commissioning the Persian architect Qavam al-din Shirazi with the task. In the 1930s the shrine, by now a burgeoning complex in need of restoration, was again enlarged by Reza Shah. After the revolution it was enlarged once more to its present size encompassing more than 75 hectares in the heart of the city.

Since the revolution non-Muslims have been prohibited entry into the Shrine housing Imam Reza’s tomb, but the rules regarding the Sacred Precinct and mosque surrounding the Shrine are more confusing. Some guards let non-Muslims pass. Others do not. Sometimes it just depends on what day one visits. Aware of this maddening state of affairs long before I arrived in Meshed, it wasn’t until the night before my visit that I asked Amir and his brothers, who had come for dinner at the hotel, for help.
“What should I do? I want to get in, but I don’t want to see the Shrine, that would be disrespectful. I only want to see the Gohar Shad.”

“Talk to the guards, express to them your deep admiration for the art of our land,” he told me, winking.

“No,” said Ali, with a strange grin, “it would be best if he said nothing. Just act like an Iranian.”

Adel, the youngest suggested that I hire a local guide, one who might be able to bribe the guards.

“No bribes, not for this,” I replied.

The brothers looked at each other, said something in Farsi and laughed.

“What’s so funny?” I asked.

“You are funny. This is such a serious matter for you. But Ali is right. Just walk in. Say nothing to the guards. Act like you belong there.”

“So, I’ll have to brazen it out, yes?”

They laughed again, as if in on some secret.

“Yes,” said Adel. “I’m certain you will be fine.”

The next day I set off before late afternoon prayers. The walk from my hotel to the Sacred Precinct in the heart of the city was easy. I only stopped once for directions before I arrived.

I crossed the street, dodging traffic, stepped onto the large plaza and strode towards the entrance gates. A large family ambled slowly in front of me, the mother pushing a baby stroller. I followed them closely, better to blend in. A guard waved a security wand over and around me as nervous fear and excitement pulsed through me. He patted me down for good measure and sent me through the gates. Not a word was spoken until I was about ten meters away. I said nothing and kept walking.

Once inside the main gates I took a moment to absorb the outer plaza. Polished and sparkling in the sun the immense outer courtyard was paved in bluish marble. A thick wall of brick geometrical shapes rose up in front of me, not, however, high enough to block out the sun, as I shielded my eyes. Finally, I caught a glimpse of a small passageway, took three deep breaths and walked into the main quadrangle of the Gohar Shad.

For a moment all activity around me stopped. The colors were mesmerizing, as turquoise, pink, purple, yellow and green danced along the walls. Tall bands of ivory white kufic calligraphy topped four high iwans (monumental arches). Arabesques and floral patterns blended into the right angles of the courtyard. A perfect symmetry of light and beauty collided and caromed up and across the walls climaxing in a narrowing pointed arch, its niche filled with deep blue muqarnas. Sitting against a wall in a small niche I watched pilgrims enter the courtyard, hundreds of them milling about under the cerulean sky. Like the sacred spaces of any religion, they all come to participate in something personal but paradoxically bigger than themselves. Perhaps a few came, like me, hoping to snatch a hint of inspiration, to touch the walls and feel the echoes of the past on my fingertips. Or maybe there were others seeking surcease from their own troubles, finding peace at the foot of the Imam’s tomb.

A thick cloud covered the sun while the faint prayers of the devout rose up into the cool air of the courtyard. An inner calm came over me, that wondrous calm which is reserved for the summits of mountains, perfect sunsets and the birth of one’s children.
The call to prayer sounded. Thus, like many other more famous travelers before me, my time was cut short. Out of respect for traditions not my own, I left. I walked back to our hotel in contented silence.

Later that evening I ate a last meal with the Brothers Isazysadr. All three asked me the finer points of certain English words and taught me a few similar Farsi words, but cautioned me not to speak them in public or in mixed company. Towards the end of the night, Adel asked me about my day.

“I hear you made it into the Gohar Shad today, yes?”

“I did. It was worth coming all this way just to have ten minutes there.”

“Indeed, they let many foreigners in at this time, especially Americans. I think the Mullahs are trying to, how do you say it, ‘play nice’ with your government?”

Slightly crestfallen, I replied, “I didn’t know that. I thought I was sneaking in. Like a real adventurer, you know? You three knew all along I would get in, didn’t you?” The table erupted in laughter.

“Sean-Paul, my good friend,” said Ali, “nothing is ever as it appears in Iran. Surely you have learned this by now.”

Apparently I hadn’t. But I was catching on.

Short Take: Modern Infrastucture Miracles

~by Sean Paul Kelley

The Chinese rail network now carries 23 million passengers a day. Multiply that by 365 and it carries 8.365 billion passengers a year. And does not account for the increase in passengers during major holidays.

Now consider these two facts. First, India’s rail network carries 23 million passengers a day also. But it took the Brits and Indians 172 years to build out the network. China did it in under 30 years.

Second: California voted in 2008 to build a high speed rail network between Los Angeles and San Francisco with a completion date of 2022. Operations are projected to start in 2030 now.

Ponder that for a moment and then puke.

The future does not happen in America anymore.

Nota bene: Jan’s comment reminded me of something I saw in China. It was the summer of 2003. After the first big SARs outbreak. I was in far west China trying to get to India. At the time there was zero high speed rail. Understand? Zero. To get to Tibet and then Nepal and finally India I had to travel across Qinghai, starting in Goldmud where I ended up in Lhasa, Tibet.

If you’ll allow an old backpacking traveller a brag, I’d be grateful. At the time, every backpacker I ever met considered the Golmud to Lhasa bus trip the sine qua non of the complete backpacker/traveller. You could not consider yourself a true traveller if you had never made this journey. 40 hours above 10,000 ft. (3,050 meters), often times as high as 14,000 feet (4,267 meters) on a sleeper bus, in which every passenger has altitude sickness of one degree or another. Puke in the aisles. No clean up. Restroom breaks rare, maybe five the entire journey. It is a badge of honor I wear with pride to this day.

Late at night about 24 hours into the journey we drove in to a traffic jam of epic proportions. A crazed, disorganized, enormous traffic jam on a dirt road somewhere between Golmud and Lhasa high up on the Himalayan Plateau. It took an hour to get through. But what I saw mezmerized me like nothing else and I will never forget it. The Chinese, busy at Buddha knows what hour, building a High Speed Rail Link between Golmud and Lhasa, much constructed on damn near permafrost conditions. Look it up if you disbeleive me.

They did it. It’s a first class wonder, the new rail link, complete with oxygen bars, etc. . .

But me, I’m glad I did it the hard way. It has more meaning.

Lamentatio finalis: Our mad rush to adopt technology in every aspect of our lives has robbed us of many beautiful and rare experiences, many of which are gone forever. I’ll leave you with one example. In 2008 I took the ferry from Penang, Malaysia across the Straits of Malacca. It was a leisurely six hour ride from Penang to Medan, Sumatra. While making the crossing I saw just how strategic a waterway it was: the sheer mass of container ships was mind boggling.

When I returned to Malaysia in 2011 specifically to share with my father the experience of the ferry ride acrosss the Straits, the ferry had been shuttered by low cost airlines flying from Penang to Medan. To me that is a loss equivalent to someone torching a Rembrandt in a Dutch museum. Irrevocable. Gone forever.

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