The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

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Democrats Take The Senate & House

Not surprising:

These results are from about five AM. They will change, but the overall results are firm.

The first thing to watch for, though it’s a way out, will be what the Senate rules are, in particular, the filibuster rules. If the filibuster is kept, Democrats aren’t serious about challenging Trump or changing anything.


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The second question is whether “designated villain” where just enough Dems vote with Republicans to stall anything popular but against the elite consensus is used. I’d be very surprised if it isn’t, but I’d be happy to be wrong.

The election result is primarily about cost of living and the Iran war, which are mostly the same thing to Americans. I have a hard time imaging Democrats actually Congressional power over war making or the purse to stop Trump’s war. They certainly won’t do a damn thing about Israel and its genocide.

I don’t actually think this election matters very much. Most of what Trump does that is objectionable is based on Presidential powers, either innate or which were delegated to the Presidency by various Congresses. Again, if Democrats start taking back the powers that were delegated, you’ll know they’re serious, if not, they aren’t. It’s that simple.

I’ve seen some people suggest that if the Dems don’t do anything significant, it might lead to a third party. I doubt it: Americans have been sheep for generations. Again, happy to be wrong, and hope I am.

We can expect a fair bit of screaming at Trump and meaningless votes. He might get impeached in the House, but I doubt the Senate will actually remove him even if so.

America is determined to go down, to lose what remains of its hegemony, except over Latin America (that’ll take another 20 years or so), and to continue impoverishing the mass of citizens so it can mint more billionaires.

Everything else is, sadly, noise, which is why I don’t cover US politics much these days.

US 2026 Midterms Open Thread

Use this thread to talk about the American elections. If you want to talk about other things, use Saturday’s thread instead.

Update 1: massive swing to Democrats.

Update 2: And, despite all the screaming, Jews are still primarily democratic voters:

Update 3: Projections show Susan Collins losing in Maine. (Entirely a matter of Trump’s tariff policies + Iran war. He lost the seat.)

x

US Elections & The Iran War

I haven’t written a lot about the US elections. The Democrats will win, since Trump has completely trashed the US economy with his policies and caused a cost of living crisis (you ain’t seen nothin’yet), the only question is how large the Democratic wave is.

Democrats controlling Congress is unlikely to make much of a difference. Even if they have enough votes they won’t remove Presidential war powers, even though constitutionally those belong to Congress and were given by Congress to the President. Likewise Trump’s signature policies of erratic tariffs with no plan and violent immigration enforcement will not cease.

It’s hard to predict Trump, but the evidence suggests another attack on Iran immediately after the election. The US has been shifting massive resources to the Middle East in preparation. The Iranians, once again, seem unlikely to attack first even though they can see the buildup, so I guess they’ll tank the first hit again.

There’s some speculation that Trump may use a nuke on the primary nuclear research and development site in Iran. Tucker:

Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike.

Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.

It’s hard to overstate how bad this could be. Even a conventional attack appears likely to provoke a massive response from the Iranians, and they’ve been warning that they’ll hit targets they avoided last time, especially if the US hits Iranian oil infrastructure.


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If there’s a nuclear attack, all bets are off. The Iranians will retaliate with everything they have, and they’ve said they’ll take out Israel’s nuclear facilities and its desalination plants, plus hit US companies in the Gulf, possibly cut the underwater internet cables, and likely take out as much oil and industrial infrastructure in Gulf countries as possible.

Downstream, once the US uses nukes, everyone else will feel much freer to use them, and everyone will want nukes of their own as protection, since the taboo will have been broken. It’s one of the first steps towards a new war, possibly even a nuclear war.

This is sheerest insanity, and the people pushing for this are absolute scum, and in most cases stupid. (Netanyahu is not stupid, he cares more about himself than Israel or anything else. He’s completely selfish and genocidal.)

If there isn’t an attack my judgment is that Iran will eventually force a peace more on their terms than America’s. The economic pressure is getting severe, and oil and fertilizer stockpiles are dwindling. They’ve been much more aggressively enforcing their blockade and unlike before, they’re actually destroying tankers. Before they usually just disabled them.

If there is an attack, Iran will still “win” but no one, including them, is going to come out of this without catastrophic economic damage.

The world is on the brink. US elections will not change that. Nothing will seriously change until America admits it has lost the war and makes peace on terms that reflect that.

That remains the most likely outcome, but the longer it takes for America to admit it’s loss, the worse the suffering will be. I repeat my advice to stock up on fuel, food, medicine and other goods (motor oil, etc…)

As for America, until there’s an actual opposition party, elections will simply shuffle the chairs on the deck and inexorable American decline will continue.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 01, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 01, 2026
by Tony Wikrent

 

He Called for Trump’s Impeachment. Now an Air Force Major Sits in Solitary Confinement.

Jeffrey Sterling, Oct 26, 2026 [laprogressive.com]

Major Jason Watson faces ten military charges after publicly demanding Trump’s removal. His prolonged isolation raises serious questions about constitutional loyalty, selective prosecution, and punishment before trial….

You can also help by sending letters of support to Major Watson while he is being confined to the following address:

Jason P. Watson
Calvert County Detention Center
P.O. Box 9
Barstow, MD 20610

 

 

The easiest way to follow *every* election – A new, free resource for democracy watchers and election nerds

Jordan Zakarin, Oct 24, 2026 [Progress Report]

 

 

Regime Fragility in the United States: What the Comparative Literature Measures and What the Next Two Years Test

Christopher Armitage, Oct 27, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

… Milan Svolik, a Yale political scientist whose 2012 book The Politics of Authoritarian Rule built a dataset of every dictatorship from 1946 to 2008, argues that every authoritarian government faces two problems, control of the people it rules and power sharing with the elites it rules with, and that the second one ends more regimes.

His 2009 study in the American Journal of Political Science counted 303 dictators who lost power by nonconstitutional means and found 205 removed by regime insiders and 32 by popular uprising. Two-thirds of the dictators in the dataset fell to the people standing next to them.

The rule for the United States follows directly: the people positioned in the data to end this regime are inside its coalition, the senators, governors, donors, generals and judges whose cooperation the coalition needs, and every indicator worth reading measures their cohesion….

the Egyptian army let Hosni Mubarak fall and the Syrian army fired on Syrians. A professional force promoted by merit and bound by law is the kind that declines to fire, and the last 13 months produced two readings of that variable.

In Nepal, police killed 19 protesters on Sept. 8, 2025, the first day of the youth protests against corruption and a social media ban. The next morning Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli left his residence in an army helicopter and resigned, the army chief, Gen. Ashok Raj Sigdel, went on television that evening to call for talks, and by Sept. 11 the generals were at army headquarters negotiating with the protesters over who would be prime minister; the protesters named a former chief justice, Sushila Karki, and she was sworn in the next day.

In Madagascar, Col. Michael Randrianirina of the CAPSAT unit, the unit that had put President Andry Rajoelina in power in 2009, posted a video on Oct. 11, 2025 telling the security forces to refuse any order to shoot the demonstrators; his soldiers walked the protesters into the capital’s main square the next day, the gendarmerie joined on Oct. 13, Rajoelina left the country, and Randrianirina was sworn in as interim president on Oct. 17.

In the United States, Bellin’s finding comes down to which force gets the order to fire: the military, promoted by merit and sworn to the Constitution, or the second force the regime is building. Congress gave ICE $76.5 billion, nearly 10 times its annual budget, close to $30 billion of it to hire 10,000 officers….

 

Information Overlord: Robert Johnson at the Crossroads, America in Decline

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast
A lot of blues this week, including a brand-new episode on St. Louis Blues (and Jazz and Ragtime).

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show


It’s Ian’s annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. As of this writing we’ve raised about $5,120 out of a $14,500 goal, from 58 people. It’d be great if you can help out (please don’t donate if your financial situation is dire.) You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact Ian at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)


What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

Iran War

FUTURE IRAN WAR PLAN – IT’s INSANE — Daniel Davis / Deep Dive (YouTube).

Yemen War

Yemeni-built weapons shape Saudi battle, with Jon Elmer — The Electronic Intifada (YouTube).

Israel

Ukraine

John Mearsheimer: Russia Will Win The Ukraine War And Take More Territory — Glenn Diesen Clips (YouTube).

Latin America

AI Bubble

Follow and Support My Work at NatWilsonTurner.com

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 25, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 25, 2026
by Tony Wikrent

 

A Blue Wave Won’t Wash Away Our Oligarchy Problem

New Republic

 

War on voting

Ballot Rejections Soared in Rural Counties After USPS Reduced Mail Service

Ken B. Morales, Jen Fifield and Misty Harris, [ProPublica]

 

Trump’s Last-Ditch Election Lawsuits, Explained

Joyce Vance, October 24, 2026 [Civil Discourse]

 

How the GOP Is Working to Steal the Midterms (w/ Joel McCleary and Mark Medish)

Chris Hedges, Oct 21, 2026

 

U.S. officials privately advise states fearing Trump election meddling – Their private efforts have reached governors, election stewards and lawmakers from both parties who are increasingly alarmed that the administration may interfere in the midterms.

Noah Robertson, Oct 20, 2026 [The Washington Post]

A small group of U.S. national security officials has been discreetly advising state governments and congressional lawmakers on how to prepare for the possibility that the Trump administration will attempt to interfere in November’s midterm elections, according to people involved in the effort.
The group includes about 10 current and former officials with experience in the Defense Department, some of whom have previously focused on countering authoritarianism abroad.
Their efforts are motivated not by political bias, they say, but a growing sense of alarm that President Donald Trump will harm American democracy by undermining the integrity of the vote to keep the Republican Party in power.
Over the past several months, the group has consulted with officials from 10 states, including governors, election officials and members of the House and Senate from both political parties who share a fear of federal intervention, two people involved in the effort said.
The effort, which has not been previously reported, focuses on states and jurisdictions where tightly contested races will determine control of Congress for the remainder of Trump’s presidency. Members of the group remain in contact with congressional staffs, and at least one state has continued to meet with them as it works to address potential vulnerabilities….

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [Mediaite]

 

The Secret Terms of Trump’s Venezuelan Oil Deal

[ProPublica, via Naked Capitalism 10-22-2026]

 

TRUMP PARDONED VENEZUELAN BILLIONAIRE AFTER FAMILY OFFERED ALINA HABBA $50 MILLION DEAL

[Law Commentary, via Naked Capitalism 10-22-2026]

 

Pentagon Installs New Economic Spying And Sabotage Units

[Moon of Alabama, via Naked Capitalism 10-23-2026]

There was some grumbling in Congress when the Trump administration installed Stephen Feinberg, a billionaire from New York, as the second man in the Pentagon. Feinberg had previously led Cerberus Capital Management which has various financial interests in Pentagon purveyors. He had also been chair of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board from 2018 to 2021, during the first Trump administration.

Feinberg first made headlines when the Pentagon invested billions to take equity stakes in more than a dozen private businesses. There are serious concerns that Feinberg is directing money to businesses he himself and/or Donald Trump’s family are interested in.

His newest endeavors though seem to be less concerned with business. They look like attempts to duplicate the Central Intelligence Agency within the Defense Department….

 

A Texas Cop Signed on to Help ICE Deport His Neighbors. It Tore the Town Apart.

Francesca D’Annunzio and McKenzie Funk, October 25, 2026 [propublica.org]

Ingram, Texas, was just rebuilding from a devastating flood when its tiny police department enrolled in ICE’s 287(g) deportation program. Within a year, cops would hand over the equivalent of 10% of the town.

 

“This Is Not What the Founders Envisioned”

Joyce Vance, October 24, 2026 [Civil Discourse]

As his lawyers prepared to return to court this morning in the legal battle over the East Potomac links, Donald Trump was up early, posting on Truth Social about U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes. He called her a “crazed lunatic” and suggested she “may be insane.” ….

It’s easy to lose sight of how commonplace that has become. And how devastating it is. It used to be that threats against federal judges came from unhappy litigants, as with three of the four federal judges who have been murdered in the last 50 years. The fourth, Judge John Roll, was killed in the shooting involving Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. In 2020, Judge Esther Salas faced an attack in her own home that led to the murder of her son, by a lawyer in a case in front of her who was a self-described “anti-feminist” and “men’s rights” lawyer. But those events didn’t come from inside of the house.

PBS reported that “Hundreds of federal judges have received threats against themselves and their families this year [2026], according to the U.S. Marshals Service. It comes amid a litany of verbal and written attacks by President Trump and his administration on judges who have ruled against them.” There is no reason for the president of the United States to put federal judges, public servants, in harm’s way. And yet, that was where his attention was focused as the lawyers returned to court in the East Potomac Park case today….

 

Strategic Political Economy

GRAPH – Corporate America’s share of the nation’s income, 1950-2025

[Axios, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, via The Big Picture 10-21-2026]

 

Wealth Inequality in America Drawn to Scale

[Dream Again USA. [22

Quite the infographic.

 

Global power shift

China invests record $583 billion in science and tech as US administration seeks research cuts

[Interesting Engineering, via Naked Capitalism 10-18-2026]

 

Gaza / Palestine / Israel

AIPAC Is Spending Millions — Just Not Under Its Own Name

Luke Goldstein and Katya Schwenk, Oct 24, 2026 [The Lever]

… Under the guise of championing popular liberal causes like electing women, promoting reproductive rights, or supporting Latino candidates, these pass-through groups are helping increasingly toxic political machines deliver ads to voters without being named, and they’re weaponizing disclosure deadlines to keep their fingerprints hidden until after ballots are cast. Campaign spending through super PACs that can keep their donors secret until after Election Day has more than doubled this cycle compared with 2024, according to Politico.

These front groups and disclosure loopholes mark a new frontier for secretive political spending in elections already awash in dark money networks that let donors obscure their identities from the voters they’re trying to influence. And they are surely a direct response to this election season’s distinct anti-establishment political climate, where even the most powerful lobbying operations recognize they must find new ways to subvert public sentiment without being exposed….

 

*WATCH OUR NEW AIPAC DOCUMENTARY* Zeteo Pulls Back the Curtain on the Pro-Israel Lobby

[Zeteo, Oct 21, 2026]

 

Oligarchy

Premium: The Hater’s Guide To Blackstone

Ed Zitron [via Naked Capitalism 10-24-2026]

For whatever reason, Blackstone founder and CEO Stephen A. Schwarzman has a thirty-chapter-long series called “My Personal History” that is, well, exactly what it sounds like — a financial hagiography that frames him as a noble, sensible man with strong values, like when he sent a letter to “distinguished skull and bones alumni” Averell Harriman, whose father Edward Harriman had crashed the stock market in 1901 in his dogged attempt to monopolize the post-bubble railroad industry. Averell himself had co-founded a bank with Fritz Thyssen, who banked the nazis.

 

Heather Cox Richardson, October 22, 2026

… Strategic studies scholar Phillips P. O’Brien wasn’t buying that explanation, posting that it is evident “the White House is desperately trying to make [Musk] the fall guy for what is happening to Ukraine.” He continued: “If Trump wanted to help Ukraine militarily and with starshield he could. He is president. He doesn’t want to.”

But it is simply astonishing that the president of the United States, the commander in chief of the United States military, is suggesting he had to negotiate with a private citizen to tell him to stop interfering with American foreign policy….

 

As Republicans brace for election losses, Musk prepares for war

Faiz Siddiqui, October 23, 2026 [The Washington Post]

A host of Democrats have said they are eager to wield the power of their office to investigate the tech titan and his ventures should they win either chamber in the midterms.

 

Elon Musk Just Threatened the Coming Democratic Majority

Lee Hepner, Oct 22, 2026 [BIG]

A few months ago, Paramount owner David Ellison succeeded in forcing California and Democratic states attorneys general to drop their antitrust suit against his acquisition of Warner Brothers. He used a variety of tactics, including a threat to move the studios out of the state, and ultimately bluffed the elected officials into folding. BIG predicted at the time that Ellison’s threatened capital strike, along with political coercion, was a preview of what is to come if voters choose Democrats as a Congressional majority.

And sure enough, that’s what one of Ellison’s close allies – Elon Musk – just did. Earlier this week, following reports that Musk had throttled Ukraine’s access to his Starlink satellite network, Politico ran a story that several Dem members of Congress are gearing up to hold oversight hearings if the midterms go their way in a couple of weeks.

Musk responded by explicitly threatening any Democrat or institution seeking to scrutinize him, his portfolio of companies, or his time at DOGE….

 

United States of Oligarchy Exposes Trump Regime Corruption

[The Nerd Reich, via The Big Picture, October 18, 2026]

The Nerd Reich podcast interviews Casey Michel about his new book on how America’s wealthiest ally with dictators and oligarchs betting against democracy.

 

The Biggest Source of Inequality That No One Talks About

[The Atlantic, via The Big Picture, October 18, 2026]

For 40 years, pass-through income has let millionaires and billionaires sidestep the corporate tax and shield much of their fortunes from income tax. Rogé Karma tallies the trillions in lost revenue.

 

Felonomics

Trump Aides Are Getting Ready to Penalize Defaulting Student Loan Borrowers

[Washington Sun, via thejackpot.blog/node/TodaysWaterCooler20261019]

“Last year, the White House Office of Management and Budget began assisting the Education Department in preparing to seize federal benefits and wages from defaulted borrowers. Trump administration officials are preparing to impose financial penalties on millions of Americans in default on their federal student loans next year, according to five sources familiar with the matter.” And: “The Treasury Department is moving forward with plans to hire private debt collectors, three of the sources said, possibly as soon as November. The sources said those plans are unlikely to be announced before the midterm elections.”

 

FEMA tells states to handle disasters on their own

[Politico, via Naked Capitalism 10-21-2026]

 

Pending Home Sales Plunge to Record Low

[Wolf Street, via Naked Capitalism 10-21-2026]

 

Health care crisis

What a Health Care Crisis Looks Like on the Ground – In South Los Angeles, ER patients are cared for in a gift shop, in tents, and even outdoors. And that’s before the crushing Medicaid cuts.

David Dayen, October 23, 2026 [The American Prospect]

… And that’s before the $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts.

CONVERSATIONS LIKE THE ONES AT MLKCH are happening at safety-net hospitals across the country. Their primary patient population is on Medicaid, and the cuts put into place by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) that Republicans passed last year will torch planned budgets and send administrators frantically searching for revenue to keep the doors open.

This is the silent issue animating much of the anti-Republican backlash in the midterms, and it compounds on itself. Work requirements and other paperwork mandates are pushing people off the Medicaid rolls; enrollment is down by 6 million since Donald Trump’s inauguration; 2.5 million of those are children. The expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies has made insurance supremely unaffordable, and enrollment in those exchanges is down by 5 million.

This spike in the uninsured population leads people to turn to emergency departments as their primary mode of care, and uncompensated care—U.S. hospitals are required to take on all emergency patients—shreds budgets for safety-net hospitals. If they go out of business, the flow of patients moves to the next ER, and the next, recreating the same problems in a new venue. And the worst cuts are yet to come….

 

Predatory finance

Same Rules, Different Ruins – How the Basel weights priced factories out of eleven economies’ banks

Craig Tindale [via Naked Capitalism 10-20-2026]

The Basel Committee de-industrialised the countries that adopted its rules. According to World Bank figures, manufacturing’s share of GDP fell in ten of the eleven countries in this essay, dropping by 16.8% in India and 60.7% in Australia, where it fell from 13.7% of GDP in 1990 to 5.4% in 2024….

 

They’re not capitalists — they’re predatory criminals

The Cover-Up: How a Trillion-Dollar Industry Launders Illegal Gold

[New York Times, via The Big Picture, October 24, 2026]

This is an illegal mine in Madagascar. Its gold is banned from the world’s legitimate marketplace. Thousands of children work in these mines, in violation of international law. Yet Madagascar’s gold flowed easily to market. And the world’s gold authority helped cover it up. The line between dirty and clean gold is an industry fiction. Wall Street and governments profit off gold from criminals, gangsters and those who exploit children.

 

Fabrications, fraud and false accounting: how Deloitte helped Abramovich hide $10bn

[The London Bureau of Investigative Journalism, via The Big Picture, October 18, 2026]

The Big Four firm spent years faking documents that helped the sanctioned oligarch conceal assets and dodge tax

 

ProPublica: Trump’s FBI purge ended a bribery probe touching Lindsey Graham, James Clyburn, and Joe Wilson

[ProPublica, via Drop Site Daily, October 20, 2026]

In early 2025, the FBI opened a corruption investigation built on confessions from Martin Kao, CEO of the defense contractor Navatek, who told agents that his business model was bribing officials for government contracts, according to a new report from ProPublica. He said he struck cash-for-contracts deals with Sen. Lindsey Graham, Rep. James Clyburn and Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina, and with Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. Agents found that much of Kao’s account matched company records seized in the investigation.

After Trump returned to the White House, the DOJ’s anti-corruption section lost authority to file new cases, the career prosecutor quit, and agents assigned to the case were fired or pushed out. The case is now dead. The living lawmakers involved (Clyburn, Wilson, and Collins) have denied any wrongdoing.

 

How Trump’s FBI Purge Saved Lindsey Graham and James Clyburn From a Bribery Investigation

ProPublica

 

Restoring balance to the economy

New Mexico Takes Meta To Court and Wins

[Economic Liberties, Oct 23, 2026, The Economic Populist]

A New Mexico judge this week ordered Meta to pay $25 billion for deceiving users about its data privacy practices after a jury last month found the company guilty of 43 million violations of the state’s consumer protection laws. New Mexico’s victory is a profound lesson to both state and national enforcers: if you want to hold Meta accountable, don’t settle. It’s a take we’ve been sharing with Politico, the Associated Press, and more this week.

New Mexico’s verdict is part of a pattern, with the “Land of Enchantment” having now pressed its own cases against Meta to judgment three times and counting: $375 million in March over child safety violations, $567 million in a second child safety case this August, and now $25 billion. This has all been done after other enforcers signed a settlement, leaving them unlikely to ever pursue what New Mexico just won. The case sends the message that strong consumer laws, when enforced, are a great way to hold big tech to account for its abusive business practices….

 

The Largest Campaign Finance Penalty in American History Cost Meta About an Hour of Revenue. Washington State fined Meta $24.6 million. The European Union’s ceiling for the same violation is $12 billion.

Christopher Armitage, Oct 19, 2026 [The Existentialist Republic]

…The European Union sets the penalty for the same kind of failure by the size of the company. Under the Digital Services Act, the European Commission, the European Union’s executive body, can fine a large online platform up to 6% of global annual revenue. For Meta’s 2025 revenue, that comes to about $12 billion. The commission issued its first fine under that law on Dec. 5, 2025: €120 million against X for transparency violations, including an ad repository that left out who paid for each ad.

Brazil and Australia apply the same principle to bribery and corporate misconduct. Brazil’s Clean Company Law, in force since 2014, makes a company strictly liable when the company’s employees or agents bribe public officials for the company’s benefit. Prosecutors have to prove the bribe and the benefit. The law allows a fine of up to 20% of the prior year’s gross revenue, and the fine can never be less than the benefit the company obtained. Australia’s 2019 corporate penalties law sets the maximum civil penalty for a company at the greatest of several measures. Those measures include three times the benefit obtained and 10% of annual turnover, up to 910 million Australian dollars….

 

Information age dystopia / surveillance state

Why aren’t AI companies being charged for hacking?

[Musing Mortoray, via The Big Picture, October 18, 2026]

A blogger asks whether hacking is legal now, after Anthropic models broke into three systems and OpenAI’s hit an Australian government health site. AI companies claim their hacks were unpredictable accidents — but they follow foreseeably from deliberate design choices, and that establishes criminal intent.

 

The technopolitics of ad-tech

Cory Doctorow, October 19, 2026 [Pluralistic]

… the internet’s original sin isn’t advertising, it’s surveillance. Contrary to what you have been told – and pax Winner’s framework – the internet is fully compatible with privacy:

https://pluralistic.net/2025/10/31/losing-the-crypto-wars/#surveillance-monopolism

It wasn’t the internet’s technopolitics that made it a surveillance nightmare. It was just plain politics. Specifically, our politicians decided to stop enacting and enforcing privacy laws….

Surveillance also promotes oligarchy. Without surveillance, oligarchs must give up more of their fortunes to keep the public happy, because the alternative is spending even more money on guards to keep the public from building guillotines on their lawns. Surveillance lets oligarchs make targeted strikes on restive radicals, which is much cheaper than broad-spectrum policies that make us all better off and neutralize the case for guillotines:

https://pluralistic.net/2025/06/26/autostabilizer/#slicey-bois

These are the technopolitics of surveillance, not advertising. There is nothing about advertising that demands surveillance. For centuries, advertising was not meaningfully linked to surveillance. The decision to fuse surveillance with advertising was just that – a decision, not an inevitability….

 

I Used AI To Surveil Myself At Work. What It Can See Will Disturb You. We talked to workers at Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft about Bossware.

[More Perfect Union] Oct 22, 2026

 

Collapse of independent news media

If the Supreme Court wants to protect freedom of the press, here is its chance

[The Hill, via Naked Capitalism 10-18-2026]

 

The death of history’s most successful publisher

Cory Doctorow [Pluralistic]

Contrast this with AI, the money-losingest endeavor in the history of human civilization. Google is losing hundreds of billions of dollars on AI. The more AI Google does, the worse the company’s financial footing becomes. If Google does this for long enough, it may cease to exist altogether. This collapse can only be prolonged by Google’s ongoing extraction of value from web publishers, who no longer have their works connected with audiences via Google search results. Instead, Google usurps those audiences, shows them as many ads as it can, and still loses money in the bargain.”

 

Democrats’ political malpractice

Why Are Democrats The Party Of No?

David Sirota, Oct 22, 2026 [The Lever]

It is an open secret that establishment Democrats loathe the left of their own party more than they oppose Republicans. You can see it in corporate Democrats trying to sabotage populist Democratic nominees and vilifying the Democratic Socialists of America. Less well understood is a related dynamic: Establishment Democrats’ foremost mission — the thing they equate with the ultimate form of toughness, courage, and morality — is using power to block the full set of policies the public actually wants.

To them, Democrats’ highest virtue is not their ability to enact big ideas, but instead their willingness to replace the GOP as the new party of no and be this era’s William Buckley — a bulwark that “stands athwart history, yelling stop, at a time when no one is inclined to do so, or to have much patience with those who so urge it.”

This vector isn’t much talked about in polite circles, but it is finally getting a rare moment in the sun, after a series of scream-the-quiet-part spectacles related to Medicare For All, which a new Yale study shows could save $1 trillion and 114,000 lives every year.

The first of those came from Majority Democrats, a billionaire front group aiming to become a new version of the old Democratic Leadership Council….

 

DNC votes down ‘dark money’ resolution singling out AIPAC, defers resolution on military aid to Israel

[ABC News, via Naked Capitalism 10-18-2026]

 

James Carville Says He’d Rather GOP Win House by 5 Seats Than Dems Win by 5: They’d Be ‘Hostage to DSA’

David Gilmour, October 19, 2026 [yahoo.com/news/politics]

 

Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028 – Desperate to cast their do-nothing, pro-billionaire agenda as shrewd politics, Democratic elites pretend the key swing vote is country-club Republicans rather than enraged working-class voters.

David Sirota, Oct 22, 2026 [The Lever]

 

The Blue-State Democrats Fighting To Shield Billionaires From Taxes

David Sirota, Oct 22, 2026 [The Lever]

 

Conservative / Libertarian / (anti)Republican Drive to Civil War

MAGA Built the Censorship Machine It Spent Years Falsely Accusing Democrats of Building

[Techdirt, via The Big Picture, October 18, 2026]

Mike Masnick on the projection: the apparatus MAGA warned Democrats were building is the one it built itself.

 

All the Things You’re Not Allowed to Say In Texas

[The Atlantic, via The Big Picture, October 18, 2026]

How new state laws and university policies at Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and UT Austin are restricting what professors can teach.

 

The (anti)Federalist Society assault on the Constitution

The Supreme Court’s Right Flank Wants to Give You Fewer Privacy Rights Than a Famous Judge

[Slate, via Naked Capitalism 10-18-2026]

 

‘Big business’: little-known court system in Louisiana churns out thousands of evictions – and millions in fees for judges

[The Guardian, via Naked Capitalism 10-22-2026]

 

Civic republicanism

SpaceX Is a De Facto Government Agency. It Should Be Nationalized. Otherwise, Elon Musk sets U.S. foreign policy.

Harold Meyerson, October 22, 2026 [The American Prospect]

This week, The Wall Street Journal reported that the decision to block Ukraine from the high-speed Starlink satellite alerts that enabled it to intercept Russian missiles and drones was made by SpaceX owner Elon Musk, either in conjunction with President Trump or in advance of Trump’s support for the action. Whichever version is more correct, Musk is either making or carrying out a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign and military policy—something that no private citizen has ever done in our 250-year history….

 

I Teach at a Business School. It’s Time to Shut Them Down.

[New York Times, via Naked Capitalism 10-20-2026]

the breakdown of elite competence

 

The REAL Reason Europe Destroyed Itself | Dr. Ulrike Guérot (YouTube video)

[YouTube, via Naked Capitalism 10-20-2026]

[Robin K:

A very provocative presentation followed by Q&A on the future of Europe. The title is slightly misleading. Her talk is about the future of Europe, based on her recent book, Why Europe Should Become a Republic. Guérot makes a distiction between democracy and republic. She aims for recreating Europe as a national Republic.

 

Tech bro branded ‘huge piece of s–t’ for game that lets you kill ‘homeless people’ — but some fans love it

[NY Post, via Naked Capitalism 10-18-2026]

[TW: The tech bro flagrantly violated one of the basic principles of political economy in a republic: government should encourage citizens to “do good.” Letting players kill billionaires might not be much better, but it at least would be taking aim at the cause of most all our problems.]

 

.

 

Information Overlord: Skydance + Musk, Egypt + Saudi Arabia

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

What I Released This Week

From me as Nate Wilcox at the Let It Roll Podcast

From me as Nate Wilcox — The MMA Draw & the Mad Squabbles Show


It’s Ian’s annual fundraiser. This allows us to cover the changeover of hegemony from America to China, environmental collapse, internal US fascism, what a better society would look like, Gaza, AI, the coming stock market crash and various other issues. As of this writing we’ve raised about $3,185 out of a $14,500 goal, from 34 people. It’d be great if you can help out (please don’t donate if your financial situation is dire.) You can Subscribe or Donate here or contact me at admin-at-ianwelsh-dot-net if you need another way to donate (mail, usually. A lot of cash apps don’t work in Canada.)


What I’ve Been Reading and Watching

Trump Regime 2.0

  • The Pentagon Buyout King — The American Prospect. “Feinberg has been doing a little of everything at the Pentagon, overseeing nearly all of the administration’s pet projects. He supervises its investment units, which, staffed with former Cerberus execs, have been buying equity in and making huge loans to companies in the military supply chain, many of them with ties to the Trump family and other well-connected private investors. One of those investment offices, which the Biden administration stood up to make low-interest loans to backstop domestic defense production, is now involved in managing the United States’ Venezuela oil deal. It recently floated issuing a $5 billion loan for AI infrastructure development, in partnership with a new bank founded by defense tech billionaire Palmer Luckey. Another one is called the Economic Defense Unit; Feinberg created it himself earlier this year and installed George Kollitides, a former aide-de-camp at Cerberus, as its head. Kollitides also leads Feinberg’s new Business Operators for National Defense consortium, which plans to ‘embed’ hundreds of defense executives in Pentagon offices.”
  • The Wall Street Veteran Trying to Solve the Pentagon’s Missile Problem — Wall Street Journal. “Trump asked Feinberg why he was still seeing media reports that the U.S. had paused attacks on Iran amid concerns about dwindling weapons stocks, given Feinberg’s job was to improve those stocks.
    “‘The president wants more. The secretary wants more. I want more,’ Feinberg recently said, explaining his approach in his first interview since taking the job last year.
    “As the U.S. expends thousands of missiles in the Iran war, Feinberg is trying to speed up the Pentagon’s ability to get new weapons. The jury is still out on whether it will work.
    “Over the past year and a half, he has attempted a sweeping overhaul of the Defense Department’s approach to weapons production, establishing a new procurement bureaucracy reporting directly to him and taking billions of dollars in government stakes in companies that supply critical materials, rocket engines and other key parts.
    “In large part, he has relied on companies and executives familiar to him from his time running the investment firm he co-founded, Cerberus Capital Management.”
  • The Moment Katie Zacharia Found Out Her Five-Day Stint as Press Secretary Was Over — Wall Street Journal.

Saudi Arabia

  • Blood without representation: Why Saudi Arabia can’t stop the Houthis — Kulna. “Why can’t Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s biggest military spenders, stop the Houthis? The answer isn’t weapons. It’s the bargain the Gulf monarchies were built on, which is now breaking, and a decade of MBS’s absolute power that left the kingdom no way out.”
  • Rave. Fight. War. — Sportspolitika. “As the U.S. orders its diplomatic staff to leave the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are relying on combat sports and raves to maintain a facade of normalcy in a time of war.”
  • Bryan Fonseca on the Saudi events still going ahead — @BryanFonsecaNY. “Everyone has been canceling their Saudi-based events — except for ones that are TKO-backed.
    “Canelo vs. Mbilli (Oct. 31) and WWE Crown Jewel (Nov. 7) still set to move forward despite the ongoing war.
    “Zuffa is reportedly planning another boxing card on Nov. 14 in Riyadh.”

Drop Site News: Saudi Arabia has canceled or postponed a string of flagship international events amid the regional war and escalating Ansarallah strikes

  • Turki Alalshikh announces the return of Riyadh Season — @Turki_alalshikh. “With the support and empowerment of His Highness the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince, sponsor of the Vision and our inspiring leader, Riyadh Season returns with diverse entertainment events and experiences, exceptional sports championships, and varied musical concerts and theatrical shows 🇸🇦♥️
    “Welcome to Riyadh Season”
  • Saudi Arabia executes a man for charges he allegedly committed at 14 — @DropSiteNews. “Saudi Arabia announced Saturday it had executed a man convicted of charges he allegedly committed at 14: befriending people who were detained or wanted by the state, according to court documents reviewed by Human Rights Watch.”

UAE

Skydance

  • Elon Musk makes $1 billion investment in Ellison’s Skydance — Semafor. “Elon Musk has invested roughly $1 billion in Skydance, according to people familiar with the matter, providing a much needed financial injection as the company looks to cut costs and bolster its stock price.
    “The deal came together at roughly the same time as equity investments from Skydance’s other investors, including board member Laurene Powell Jobs, the people said. Semafor reported in September that Paramount was considering seeking an equity injection from Musk.
    “Musk has publicly praised the Ellisons and Skydance, prompting speculation of a more expansive partnership between Musk’s lower-earth-orbit satellite network, Starlink, and Skydance.
    “‘He’s gonna have to re-engineer all of those channels, and figure out how they morph into streams themselves rather than just traditional linear,’ billionaire cable executive John Malone said Tuesday.”
  • CBS’ DraftKings Gamble — Status. “Late last week, as local stations around the country continued to prepare for Election Day, executives at CBS’ owned and operated television stations learned of an unexpected curveball from corporate management. Their election coverage, they learned, would now be sponsored by the sports gambling site DraftKings.”

Israel

Ukraine

Dem Collapse

Mehdi Hasan INTERROGATES Neera Tanden for hosting Benjamin Netanyahu — @ClippingWings.

https://x.com/ClippingWings/status/2110922837506568642

GOP Hacks

  • ICE Barbie Goon Unmasked as Creator of MAGA’s Vilest Ad — The Daily Beast. “The man behind Kristi Noem’s infamous horseback commercial at Homeland Security has been exposed as the creator of Vivek Ramaswamy’s vile new attack ad, a new report alleges.
    “The Rooster reports that The Strategy Group Company, run by Benjamin Yoho, is the creator of the ad featuring an interview with Democratic candidate Amy Acton’s estranged mother, in which she casts doubt on her daughter being a victim of horrific childhood abuse.”

Uprisings

Psychopathology

  • You Can’t Know Everything — Unpopular Front. “Here’s what I think is going on with Elizabeth Holmes: She has an extremely severe form of the defense mechanism that Melanie Klein called splitting—dividing self and world into unambiguous ‘good’ or ‘bad.’ She cannot admit that she has any bad qualities: any aggression, any selfishness, any tendency to deceive others, or even any of the more positive forms of aggressiveness like ambition. On her account, her motivations are all benevolent, idealistic, and noble. She even says she never lies! Now, I believe a consciously deceptive person would admit that they, like everyone else, lie casually from time to time to avoid hurting others or to get out of inconvenient situations, but they avoid lying in serious issues or have a strong ethical aversion to lying. A total denial of lying immediately raises red flags: It is not an effective strategy for building trust. Usually, hearing something like that is a sign of someone being a little bit crazy. She cannot face or integrate that aggressive part of herself. Most mature adults with healthy psyches can admit to themselves and others that they have some less than stellar qualities—that they can be selfish or even destructive at times—although they balance that behavior out with nice qualities, for example, the capacity for love and kindness, and the ability to make amends when they do wrong.”

Conspiraversy

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