Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Health Insurance CEO Assassinated

Brian Thompson, CEO of United Healthcare. Apparently there had been threats, and those threats were related to denial of care. Even the Feds thought he was denying too much care (which takes some work, since denying care is the industry profit model.)

He had been chief executive since 2021, during a time in which the parent company and his division were rattled by federal investigations, even as it enjoyed profitable growth. The division has been criticized by congressional lawmakers and federal regulators who accused it of systematically denying authorization for health care procedures and treatments.

There doesn’t seem to be much sympathy, and indeed there is much satisfaction and even glee, among commenters.

I have been expecting, but not seeing, a wave of assassinations of important people in the US and the West for some time. I still think it will happen, it’s just taking longer than I thought.

The bottom line is that people like Thompson get rich by hurting other people. That’s what they do. Billionaires, executives and politicians all make their living plus a lot by taking from people weaker than them. Grocery chains raising prices faster than their costs’ insurance companies denying care to spike profits; banks creating fake documents to foreclose homes; private equity buying profitable businesses, larding them up with debt and then shutting them down.

Politicians making laws to benefit the rich, cutting their taxes, giving them huge subsidies and cutting programs for the poor and middle class. Politicians letting people be homeless and stealing their possessions when they raid homeless camps.

And so on. Entire books have been written about this and been non-exhaustive.

Powerful people get rich by killing, impoverishing and hurting people weaker than them and it’s very odd that more of those people, or their families or friends don’t return the favor with prejudice.

Thompson’s assassination will cause more execs and CEOs to bodyguard up, but that doesn’t matter much. Modern IEDs and drones are very very effective and getting cheaper all the time, though civilian drones are extremely restricted in the US, which has lead to China being the world leader.

I suspect they’re restricted in part to make assassinations harder. Guns are nice, drones are better.

Chinese leaders make the lives of most Chinese much better, not worse, so they aren’t scared of assassination.

Anyway, if you want an economy which works for everyone you can’t ask nicely, powerful Westerners only respond to fear. So if there are more assassinations, if it becomes a “thing”, well that might turn out very well for the majority. (Or it might not, but when the status quo is unbearable, people often lash out.)

This is just an observation of how things work, of course. One should never ever assassinate someone just because they are killing and impoverishing lots of people and would happily kill and or impoverish your friends and family or you because they need a fifth luxury home, third private jet and a second mega-yacht.

That would be very anti-capitalistic and un-American and letting the rich kill and impoverish you is what America is all about. You should be honored to die or live on the street or scream in agony as your health care is denied so some executive can increase profits by .01% and get a bigger bonus.

Die for the American way. Live homeless for freedom!

Update:

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The South Korean Coup Attempt

Update: Report that the President may have backed down and will cancel martial law. Amazing.

The President of South Korea has declared martial law.

The legislature voted 190 to 0 to end the martial law, which is their right under the constitution, but the President has declared it will continue and the military command has said they will not end it till he says so. Even members of the President’s own party voted to end martial law.

I’m no expert on South Korea, but what I do know that the people with the guns have the final say. Back during the Arab Spring I noted that until the Egyptian army chose its side (it wound up choosing itself) nothing had been won.

The question, then, is the high command is unified and if lower officers and the rank and file will obey orders. So far the coup hasn’t been entirely competent: the military should have never allowed the legislators into the building to take such a vote.

There are unconfirmed reports that arrest warrants have been issued for leaders of opposition parties.

South Korea is America’s second most important ally, right after Japan. It has the highest science production per capita in the world and is a major industrial power.

One of the topics on the right hand side of the blog is “the age of war and revolution”. Coups are a type of revolution. This sort of instability will continue. Some nations will re-align against the declining West, others, in the core, as the decline continues, will become more and more unstable and serious political realignments will occur. The age of neoliberal ideology is also coming to an end (Trump’s tariff threats are as anti-neoliberal as it gets) and the global economy is being upended in ways it hasn’t been since the industrial revolution, as the core moves from a Western country to China.

Be prepared for much more instability.

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About the Syrian War & Those Rebels

Let’s state the obvious bits and get them out of the way:

  • The rebels are basically Al-Qaeda;
  • They are supported by Turkey, Israel and the US;
  • The Syrian army barely fought during the initial attacks and it was very embarrassing;
  • Aleppo fell in a couple days. It may take a couple years to take it back;
  • The timing is intended to take advantage of Hezbollah’s being weakened and tied down by Israel.

Syria was losing the previous war until Hezbollah and Russia intervened. It may well lose this war if Hezbollah and/or Russia don’t send troops, but both of them have other enemies they need to worry about.

If Syria falls, Russia loses its Mediterranean naval and air bases and thus a great deal of its military reach. Hezbollah loses its main supply line to Iran.

The big mistakes that lead to this were playing footsie with Turkey/Erdogan and tolerating a frozen conflict. Syria, with Russia and Hezbollah’s support could have conquered Idlib, but Russia decided not to, leaving enemies with a foothold in Syria. Those enemies waited till the best time, then re0-openned the war.

If you’re winning a war and can win the war, then frozen conflicts are a bad idea. They remain a knife near your throat. Russia made this mistake in 2014 as well, when it could easily have fully defeated Ukraine and imposed a peace.

Hopefully they’ve learned the lesson. They do have enough reserves left to send sufficient troops to Syria. This time, win the war.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 01, 2024

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 01, 2024

By Tony Wikrent

Jonathan Larson: A Life of Learning, Service, and Curiosity (July 17, 1949 – November 2024)

It is with profound sadness that we announce the passing of Jonathan Larson, the founder of the Real Economics blog. Jonathan’s insatiable curiosity, dedication to public service, determination to improve the human condition, and deep intellect left an indelible mark on all who knew him….

He authored Elegant Technology: Economic Prosperity from an Environmental Blueprint, a book that showcased his commitment to sustainable development and his vision for a greener future. Published in Scandinavia, the book demonstrated his global perspective and ability to inspire change across borders.

He also authored a paper on heterodox economist and scholar Thorstein Veblen, and supported and closely followed the restoration of the Veblen homestead.  Jonathan began this blog, Real Economics, to do as Veblen had — challenge and seek to supplant the failing orthodoxy of mainstream neoliberal and conservative economics….

Jonathan’s passing leaves behind a legacy of intellectual brilliance, moral courage, and unyielding dedication to the betterment of society. His life serves as a reminder that curiosity, compassion, and hard work can create a better world. Those who knew him who will forever cherish his memory.

 

Strategic Political Economy

Trump tariffs a “10 year project” to make China consume more and manufacture less.

[X-Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 11-27-2024]

[TW: The Trump regime’s goal of forcing China to “manufacture less” should be understood in the context of Thorstein Veblen’s explanation of the conflict between business and industry. Business managers and financiers dislike the uncertainty and unpredictability created by technological innovation. Rather than creating wealth through increased and less imperfect production (here, think of the Japanese concept of kaizen), business managers and financiers instead seek to acquire wealth “by a shrewd restriction of output,” causing privation and unemployment. This actually establishes and perpetuates a process of financial sabotage of industry, as Veblen explained in the first chapter of his 1921 book, The Engineers and the Price System.

[By contrast, a foreign policy based on principles of civic republicanism would seek to collaboration and cooperation with other nations to solve the most pressing problems facing humanity, such as transitioning off of fossil fuels, and ensuring universal supplies of clean water, medical care, transportation, and so on.]

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

France Is Being Kicked Out of YET Another French Country

Recently French troops have had to leave Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Now it’s Chad booting them.

Update: Senegal has now announced it intends to seek the withdrawal of French troops.

The first three countries have Russian troops in them now. Wonder how long it’ll be before Chad joins the crowd?

France has been the most important country in a lot of its ex-colonies in Africa, but it’s losing its place, not just militarily but economically. Countries are turning to China for imported goods and development at the same time as they turn to Russia for security. Chinese goods, development and loans are cheaper, and neither Russia nor China interfere nearly as much in domestic politics.

It’s just a better deal. For a long time you HAD to go to the West, but now Russia and China can supply pretty much everything you need.

 

As regular readers know I’ve been following Europe’s collapse for a few years now. It’s practically a freefall. In Germany Volkswagon, for example, is planning on closing factories for the first time.

Europe’s well on its way to being what it was for most of history: a backwards and irrelevant peninsula, with the main action and most important civilizations elsewhere in Asia.

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Two Different Types Of Benefits From Meditation

People meditate because they want something from it. Most serious meditators I know, the people who made real progress, were miserable.  The two main benefits from meditation might be classified as “capacity” or “exercise” and “insight.”

When I was younger, I could run 10 miles in 50 minutes and not be exhausted afterwards. I can’t do that now because I don’t run regularly.

Some benefits from meditation are like this. Concentration meditation, where you hold your attention on something like your breath or a mantra, or the spot between your brows or a candle is “mind exercise.” The more you do it, with proper technique, the better you get. If you stop doing it you lose the benefits: being more relaxed, more able to focus on anything and more able to ignore stuff like pain and anxiety.

The other main set of benefits are like learning to ride a bicycle. At first it’s impossible, then you get the knack for it, and from then on you have the benefit. Most of these are insight benefits: if you truly realize that you aren’t the body, say, then you let go of it and suffering is permanently reduced. If you see thru conditioning and realize you don’t have to obey it, you become free of it (often this goes in steps, by types of conditioning.)

Some other similar benefits are skill based. If you practice bringing up emotions on demand after a while they become “on tap” and you can just experience them at will.

Now meditation methods tend to work in concert. The reason Shamatha (concentration/mental exercise) is often done alongside Vipassana (insight) is that if you want to see the mechanics of how sense objects like emotions and thoughts work, being able to concentrate: having a focused mind make it a lot easier.

Of course there’s some overlap: I know how to run properly. I know how to get in shape. If I were to take up running again, those would make it easier for me and even when I’m in bad shape I run better than people who have never learned proper running technique (plus I’m used to the suffering of pushing myself.) Same is true of concentration: I’m out of practice, but I know how it’s done and I’m better than someone who’s never done a lot of concentration meditation. But I’m nowhere as good as someone who’s kept up a practice of an hour or two a day. (Two hours is about the minimum to be able to get reliably into certain states.)

Whatever it is you want from meditation, and there are lots of different possible achievements, you need to know what you need to do to get them, and how to keep them. But no matter what you want, meditation is either like exercise (for capacity) or like learning a skill.

Know what you want and find out how to get it.

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If The Gaza Ceasefire Holds, Israel Has Won

So, terror bombing appears to have won the Gaza war. Israel’s ground invasion was pathetic, Hezbollah’s troops proved their reputation is deserved,  but Hezbollah has agreed to a ceasefire.

That’s what Israel needed: that’s a strategic victory. Without Hezbollah missiles and drones hitting Israel, a ton of the pressure is off, especially economic pressure. Now Israel can concentrate on Gaza and Hamas. Without Hezbollah, they’re doomed and the genocide and ethnic cleansing of, at least, Northern Gaza will be successful.

This is why I always felt that Hezbollah, Iran and the Iraq militias needed to put much more pressure on, especially back when the Israeli army was concentrating on Gaza and Hamas still had most of its troops.

There’s a good chance this ceasefire won’t hold, of course, but if it does it’s an Israeli victory. Anyone spinning it any other way is full of shit.

If there’s going to be another round, then Iran needs to get serious anti-air to Hezbollah, because with terror bombing having worked, the Israelis will do it again.

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