Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

A Few Words On The “Big Beautiful Bill”

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On July 3, 2025

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Obviously this is a pile of steaming garbage. Four trillion of tax cuts, paid for by cutting Medicaid (11.8 million people will lose health care according to the CBO) and perhaps 8 million people will lose food benefits under SNAP. Green energy subsidies are cut (no, shut up, there are tons of dirty energy subsidies) and there’s a huge budget increase for ICE (including more prison camps), America’s Gestapo.

And, of course, there’s all sorts of nasty in the details, like cuts to Planned Parenthood (which does far more than abortions).

A lot of Americans are going to be hurt by this. I’d go so far as to say it might be the worst American federal budget I’ve seen in my life, though Obama and the Fed’s giveaways to the rich were worse.

Oh, and politicians like Josh Hawley who pretend to care about ordinary people? Yeah, fake. He voted for the bill.

I reiterate that things in the US are going to get worse and worse for years, with only a small chance of a reversal (based on a Mamdani style left populism). Get out if you can, take steps to prepare and protect yourself if you can’t.

Update: worse than I realized. Trump obviously doesn’t give a damn in Republicans are wiped out in the mid-terms, and Republicans know that Democrats won’t reverse their cuts, so people will have no choice and the duopoly will continue:

Because of a statutory requirement to automatically impose budget cuts when legislation increases the deficit, the Big Beautiful Bill would require automatic sequestration cuts across the board, something that has been confirmed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) but has been largely absent from the debate over the bill. Medicare is one of the programs that will face the axe, and the damage sums to $490 billion over the next ten years, starting in the next fiscal year that begins in October. While many of the safety-net cuts in the bill are delayed to help Republicans with their re-election campaigns, the Medicare cuts must begin next year.

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Why Does The CCP Accomplish Goals Meant To Better China’s People?

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On July 3, 2025

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Chinese and American flags flying together

When I originally formulated this article it was just “Why does the CCP accomplish its goals?”

But that’s a stupid article. Certainly there are governments which fail to accomplish their goals, in countries which lacks state capacity or are in constrained positions. But for most of my life most Western governments haven’t been all that constrained, they just acted as if they were.

The truth is that Western governments have mostly accomplished their goals over the last 45 years: it’s just that their ur-goal was to make the rich richer. If that meant burning everything else down, they were OK with that. There are a number of reasons for this, but basically political elites were bought: do what the rich want and even if you lose office you’ll be very well taken care of. Instead of viewing government as “theirs” and their countries as “belonging to them” they viewed political office as a way to get rich. Instead of viewing the rich as their competitors for power, to be kept under control, they viewed them as their benefactors and as the ones who could put them into office. Or, put another way, most elected representatives saw themselves as de-facto employees, or contractors, of the rich and corporations.

This view has explanatory power: politicians do what you’d expect them to do if it were true. Take a look at Trump: his budget has 4 trillion in tax cuts for the rich, and to partially pay for those cuts, it is getting rid of 800 billion in Medicare funding. The idea that he’s some sort of economic populist is laughable. He’s making the rich get richer, just like every other President since Carter (though Reagan was the real inflection point.)

This wasn’t always the case. From 33 till around 68 or so, the primary policy goal in America was the growth and prosperity of the middle class, and most politicians, while they’d take the money of corporations and rich to some extent, saw them as the enemy, to be kept under control.

So, let’s turn to the CCP. They have lifted more people out of poverty than every other country combined. The one-child policy, whether you agree with it or not, did get China’s population growth under control. They are ahead in 80% of techs, when 20 years ago that number belonged to the US. They have the largest industrial economy in the world. They are reducing housing prices, which was their goal. They are reducing inequality and smashing the number of billionaires. They are installing more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. They are building industrial stacks so that nothing they actually need comes from the rest of the world—they’re not quite there yet but they will be. (Don’t invest in TMSC long term, their near monopoly position is almost over and they will soon be overtaken by the Chinese. Three to five years at most is my guess.)

The CCP accomplishes its goals. Its primary goal is:

The Preservation of its own power. There are two branches to this: avoidance of foreign military conquest or regime change, and avoidance of domestic collapse or revolt.

To be powerful, and thus not be at the mercy of foreigners (one of Mao’s main goals) requires an educated, prosperous population and an industrial economy, because military power post-industrial revolution is primarily a result of technology plus industry. If another country can defeat you militarily, you won’t stay in power if they don’t want you to.

Domestically if the population loves you (and all polling shows vast support for the CCP) you will keep power. If they despise you, you will eventually lose power. The Soviets, with all their tanks and soldiers, fell in part because neither the people nor the elites believed in rule by the Party any more. So making the people prosperous is job one for protecting the CCP’s rule. Prosperous people don’t revolt. The Chinese believe this more than any other civilization. The entire “Mandate of Heaven” is based on this, and for over two thousand years the Chinese have regarded the government as responsible for prosperity. When it can no longer provide it, not only is overthrowing it justified, it is even virtuous. On the other hand, to overthrow a government which takes care of the people is vile, and understood as such.

Likewise, if one doesn’t want a change in which elites control the country, one can’t allow domestic power centers other than the party to spring up. This is why the CCP has been crushing billionaires. This is why the CCP banned the Falun Gong (who had widespread membership, including members in the CCP.) Bilionaires were particularly pernicious, because they corrupted party members, and those members goals changed from keeping the CCP in power by making China stronger and people more prosperous, to making a small number of people rich at the cost of general prosperity.

Xi was absolutely correct to make going after corruption his first and most important goal, because the CCP had split into factions and those factions were putting their own prosperity and strength above those of the party and the country. Left unchecked China would have fallen into a corruption spiral, inequality would have spiralled out of control and even if the CCP existed in form, it would no longer be its own power center, but controlled by others.

Now it should be understood that the CCP’s basic ideology isn’t “stay in power at all costs”. Like all ideologies it justifies it otherwise. It would say, and many party members, probably including Xi, would say that the party wants to stay in power because it can make China powerful and prosperous.

Given China’s progress since the party took over (and there was plenty of progress under Mao, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise — education and lifespand went way up), the CCP feels entirely justified in this belief.

Of course all things pass, and at some point the CCP will fail and be replaced, either in form (abolished) or by takeover. The Democratic party still exists in America, after all, but FDR or even LBJ would not recognize it, nor have any respect for it. Even Carter, the original neoliberal, by the end of his life, found it abominable. (I suspect young President Carter didn’t fully understand the consequences of what he helped birth.)

But for now, the CCP stands in its glory, having accomplished much of what it originally set out to do. It kicked out foreign occupiers. It made China strong enough that it could no longer be pushed around or occupied. It made the Chinese people prosperous. It gained the technological and industrial lead over the West.

It did so because it regards China as belonging to it, and believes that it has a responsibility to the people of China and that it deserves and will keep its power only if it delivers for the people of China: not for a minority, but for the masses.

None of this is to say the CCP is perfect, just that it’s an effective government which actually wants a prosperous population.

Our governments are effective, but what they want is richer rich people. As a result they will become ineffective and at some point they will either fall and change form and rise again, or they will devolve into full-on failed states.

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Prices of Both Housing And Rent Are Decreasing In China

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On July 2, 2025

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In 2016, Xi said that houses were for living in, not for speculating. The Chinese government took steps to reduce prices, those steps took time to bear fruit.

 

 

Likewise, rent prices have been dropping recently:

And yes, this is a result of government policy:

While, according to the PBOC, in the pre-pandemic decade, the annual rental inflation in China exceeded 1.2%, it slowed significantly in recent years and has been in the negative in the last twelve months. In March 2025, the rent of the rental housing component of the consumer price index (CPI) showed a 0.1% year-on-year decline, trending upwards, however, from -0.4% and -0.3% annual change rates previously registered in September 2024 and December 2024, respectively.

“In recent years, rents have declined due to lower income expectations and the increase in government-subsidized housing supply. This has provided tenants with more options and increased bargaining power, making lease renewals a key challenge for leasing companies,” noted Savills in their 2025 Chinese Real Estate Market Outlook.

Now you might think “this means the Chinese economy or citizen is in trouble!” No.

In stark contrast to the slowdown across housing and industry, however, Chinese consumers appear motivated to open their wallets and spend on goods. Retail sales grew 6.4% in May, topping expectations and sharply accelerating from April’s 5.1% rise.

Now, standard Western economists think that the real-estate market slumping is bad, and retail trade going up is good, but they’re both good and they’re both a result of government policy. China wants relatively cheap real-estate and to increase the size of its domestic consumer market so its industry is less reliant on exports. (Trump has kindly demonstrated the problem with over-reliance on trade partners.)

The thing is that if real-estate had kept going up in price the way it did in the past, the CCP would be in danger: their legitimacy rests on the idea that people’s lives keep betting better. For many years I kept reading young people in China saying they couldn’t afford to own a home. That was (and still is, to some extent) a problem. Xi acted on it.

Further high real-estate prices increase the costs of every single business, since they increase the costs of employees. China wants to stay an industrial power, not become worthless rentiers and financiers, and as such real-estate can’t be allowed to increase too much.

Now for a long time real-estate is how city government financed themselves. It was an engine which allowed growth. But when it started becoming a financial game, with people owning multiple condos or houses; prices increasing faster than wages and people locked out of ownership Beijing acted.

You can’t be an industrial power if rentiers: people who expect to make money thru time arbitrage and managed scarcity, are in charge of your society.

It is also true that if you aren’t a major manufacturing power you can’t become or remain a major military power. (Britain says “Hi!” America says, “uhhhhh….”)

Anyway, China needs to keep housing and rental prices down. At the very least they need to increase less than wage increases and for many years.

All signs are, that as is most often the case, the CCP is succeeding at the policy goals it set out for itself.

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Verdun Then and Now

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On July 1, 2025

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Thirty-one years ago on my first trip overseas I visited Verdun in France. Specifically to see the battlefield of Verdun, where von Falkenhayn sought to bleed the French white. From 21 February 1916 to 18 December 1916, 9 months, 3 weeks and 6 days the Boche–the term the French used for the Germans–did exactly that. I’d written my senior’s honor thesis in history on Verdun and felt it was right to visit.

Fallen Lion of France at the Verdun Battlefield

I’m not going to go into too much detail. You can read about it in its fullness here. I only want to add a few things. First, this was the first time any general attempted a strategy of attrition. Some of what Grant did during the Wilderness and the siege of Fredricksburg is semi-attritional, but it wasn’t Grant’s spoken intent as it was the explicit aim of the Cheif of the German General Staff Erich von Falkenhayn’s. He knew he could not break through the ring of forts surrounding the Meuse Heights and the medieval city of Verdun. His aim was to take the heights and dig in and then take the strategic defensive, forcing France to regain her honor at any cost. 50 German divisions squared off against 75 French. von Falkenhayn succeeded in forcing France’s hand, certainly. In the end his strategy was a failure and he was dismissed by the Kaiser and replaced by Ludendorff and Hindenburg, who quickly established a military dictatorship over the Second Reich for the remainder of the war. Needless to say that over a million men–French and German–died fighting in the trenches along and up the heights and into the forts Douamont and Vaux trading them back several times.

Fort Douamont on the Meuse Heights

If the Miracle on the Marne was the most important battle of the 20th century–and it was we ought paraphrase Churchill and call it France’s finest hour. That being so makes the Battle of Verdun one the finest last stands in the annals of human endeavor. To a man the good, stolid French poilus stood and died in the mud, the filth, the lice, the decaying bodies and the artillery shells shattering overhead all day long, every day for almost a year.

When I visited in 1994 I walked from the city of Verdun all the way up the heights along the single supply route the French called the “voie sacrée” – the sacred way. It was ten miles there and ten miles back. A long day. I walked through trenches, both forts Douamont and Vaux and at the end of the day I walked, rather solemnly through the hallowed arches of the Ossuary, which holds the bones of over 130,000 unidentified French and German soldiers. There was no entrance fee for anything and I was free to roam just about anywhere I wished, except when I saw signs that declared, “Non! Munitions non explosées!” Unexploded ordnance, still active almost a hundred years after being fired.

Ossuary of Verdun

So this morning I watched a video made by a young French woman of the battlefield and its environs. A lot has changed. There is a new, modern museum, and to walk the grounds and see the museum cost about $20. The young woman does an admirable job of guiding the viewer through the most important parts of what I now guess is a monument park of sorts called Mémorial de Verdun Champ de bataille. She’s tactful, sincere, respectful and cognizant of the sacrifice the men made for her. She honors them in her own way. I was pleased to see their sacrifice is still remembered and revered. (As some of you may recall, I had the good fortune to befriend an American WWI veteran in the 1990s before he passed away. So, WWI is important to me, I carry the memory of one of the last American soldiers to fight in the war and I cherish that memory.) She also pays her respects to the Germans who fell during the battle (part of the site was re-dedicated in the 50’s after the Franco-German rapproachment after WWII). She even visited the graves of our doughboys who fought in the area in 1918.

In all honesty, I can’t say I would have enjoyed walking through the museum. Of course seeing the uniforms and the kit of the poilus was fascinating, but there was a rich, chilling awe of gravitas to my imagination that day as I walked through the empty echoing halls of forts Douamont and Vaux. There were no wax figures as there are now. Only a haunting silence. If I listened closely enough I could almost hear the distant echoes of incoming artillery. The shots of mausers. The cracks of the countering French Berthiers. And the loud pops and booms of French and German grenades.

Sometimes less is more.

Regardless, it was an unforgetable experience.

Doomed Tesla (RoboTaxi Edition)

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On July 1, 2025

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I’ll keep this one short and sweet.

Tesla was contacted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Monday after videos posted on social media showed the company’s robotaxis driving in a chaotic manner on public roads in Austin, Texas.

Elon Musk’s electric vehicle maker debuted autonomous trips in Austin on Sunday, opening the service to a limited number of riders by invitation only.

In the videos shared widely online, one Tesla robotaxi was spotted traveling the wrong way down a road, and another was shown braking hard in the middle of traffic, responding to “stationary police vehicles outside its driving path,” among several other examples.

Elon Musk is not that smart. He chose to use cameras only, and not Lidar, against the advice of his own engineers.

China has robotaxis already. They work fine. They have Lidar.

Tesla is doomed. Their cars are worse than those of their competitors and more expensive. Robotaxis aren’t going to work. The only thing saving Tesla right now is 100% tariffs on Chinese autos, but even non Chinese electric cars are better and often cheaper.

Meanwhile Musk is in a feud with Trump, Trump has threatened to remove subsidies for Musk enterprises and Musk (again, an idiot) has said Trump should go ahead. And yes, he does need those subsidies.

The majority of Musk’s wealth is tied up in Tesla, and it’s days are numbered. Meanwhile Starship keeps exploding, the last time during fueling, not even after launch. There are a lot of competitors to SpaceX, and w/o NASA contracts SpaceX doesn’t look so hot either. Right now NASA is stuck with Musk, but that’s not going to last.

Musk isn’t going to be the world’s richest man much longer.

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The Changing Interpretations of Gobekli Tepe

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On June 30, 2025

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The foreman in 2008 and his sons offer me tea.

Before Gobekli Tepe became an internet sensation due to psuedo-archeologist Graham Hancock, I visited the site in 2008. That was 17 years ago. It was not a tourist site at the time, it was a working archeological dig. I was greeted by the foreman, and I asked if I could take photos. He said yes, and I did. Some of you might recall them. Here is what it looked like then, and here is a link to the photos:

Gobekli Tepe in 2008

Here is how awful it looks now:

Gobekli Tepe at present

That’s a lot of change. The Turkish government co-opted it for its own reasons and turned it into a Kurdish-region mega-tourist attraction in as a way of asserting some control, but also as a way of dishing out some money to keep the Kurds, at the very least, content. Gobekli Tepe has nothing to do with Turkish history. The site dates back to the Younger Dryas, or, the last Ice Age — it probably dates back further than that. The first interpretation was that it turned our idea of civilization on its head. It went like this: “Before Gobekli Tepe man built the city and then the temple. But at Gobekli they believed the temple came first.” I felt it a compelling reason and I’m a touch saddened it has been revised. But that is how empircal data works. This view has now been revised. Here is a shortish video discussing the dating issues. A key point he makes in his video is that there is real specialization in labor. A division in labor. Not a collection of hunter gathers but proto-civilization, if you will. If you really want to do a deep dive on this very important subject I cannot recommend Ancient Architects highly enough. This video and this video are a great place to begin. What ever you do, do not listen to Graham Hancock. He is full of shit. The bottom line is that Gobekli Tepe is only one site now considered a part of the Taş Tepeler civilization in the highlands of southern Anatolia. There are between 40-80 sites in a 250 square mile area in the highlands above the headwaters of the Balikh River and the Harran Plain–Turkey’s gateway to Mesopotamia–and where the Roman general Crassus died at the battle of Carrhae in 53 BC.

The battlefield of Carrhae, where Crassus died, smack in the middle of Turkish Mesopotamia.

That’s simply huge. And that there was lots of trial and error going on there about domesticating all kinds of things. Plus, pottery has been found and dated at one site to the pre-pottery neolithic! I recommend we rename the pretty pottery neolithic to something else, please?

Last thought, Slovenian political scientist Samo Burja has an absolutely compelling essay based on Gobekli Tepe and other archeological sites on how civilization might be very much older than we currently believe. He speculates there is a real possibility that in our lifetimes we might discover attempts at it close to 100,000 years old. Given what I have seen, I would not be surprised if he were very close to correct.

Give some of the videos a watch if your inclined in the speculation on our origins, like I am.

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Russo-Ukraine War Update June 30, 2025

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On June 30, 2025

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Before we get into the most recent developments of the war between Russia and the Ukraine, I want to focus a little bit about how Russia is outstripping the West technology-wise. We all know necessity is the mother of all invention. And war is the mother of all necessity. The Russians haven’t missed a beat innovating. One of the most terrifying weapon systems in Russia’s developing arsenal are its multifarious thermobaric weapon systems. They now have at least three operating platforms to deliver these utterly destructive weapons. Thermobaric weapons are not illegal under the rules of war. They are accepted as valid and while the Ukrainians might complain, no one is listening.

If you recall the MOAB–so called Mother of all Bombs, was a thermobaric weapon. Thermobaric weapons explode and aerosolize fuel in the air before they ignite. They are designed to destroy bunkers, and killl everyone in them. The United States has not developed them futher, resting on their laurels as they have no need to do so, so they think.

Not so Russia. Here is a primer on thermobaric weapons. Here is a primer in a more Russo-Ukraine conflict context. So far the US has only developed a thermobaric grenade, the MOAB, the Hellfire missile and one for a minor Marine rocket launcher. That is the limit of US innovation.

TOS-1A on a T-72 tank chassis.

The Russians on the other hand have taken things a lot further. First, the MOAB destructive power is 9.8 tonnes. The Russian version, dubbed the FOAB (father), is the equivalent of 44.4 tonnes. But the Russian version of the bomb is overkill and the Russians know it, using it only sparingly. Instead they developed a launch system of 24 thermobaric rockts placed on top of a T-72 tank chassis with a maximum range of about 6 kilometers, called the TOS-1A. Many of the TOS-1A were destroyed early in the war. The TOS-1A could be spotted and destroyed by some of the more advanced counter-artillery weapons systems the West gave the Ukrainians. So, the Russians, as trench, fortified and urban warfare became more prevalent, reboubled their efforts.

TOS-2, mounted on a six wheeled Ural.

The Russians soon upgraded the TOS-1A with the TOS-2. The TOS-2 is based on a wheeled vehicle for better shoot and scoot capability to avoid being blown up by counter battery attacks. The rockets are more lethal–having flecks of magnesium and aluminum to make them hotter (tests are ongoing with nanofuels) and have a range of almost 15 kilometers. It is also equipped with modern sights and target navigation systems, I beleive based on Russia’s GLONASS, their version of GPS satellite targeting. TOS-2 vehicles can self reload, and come equipped with electronic warfare jamming systems. Here is the first of two videos, made within the last two months showing the devastation the TOS-2 system, which recently underwent an upgrade, can do to Ukrainian lines. Here is the second. Warning to the viewer: these are real scenes of war. Viewer discretion advised.

Iskander Misiles topped with thermobaric warheads.

Moreover, even the much vaunted Iskander ballistic missile can be mounted with a 700 kg thermobaric warhead. The list of Russian thermobaric weapons is simply to long to itemize and discuss. The important fact here is that the United States has no answer to weapons like this. The Russians have officially incorporated these fearsome weapons into their artillery doctrine and are now using them all across the front lines to destroy bunkers, trenches and near the front hardened command centers. The results, per the CIA (arguably not the most trustworthy source, but it’s what I got) describe horrifying results:

the effect of a [thermobaric] explosion within confined spaces is immense. Those near the ignition point are [incenerated]. Those at the fringe are likely to suffer many internal, invisible injuries, including burst eardrums and crushed inner ear organs, severe concussions, ruptured lungs and internal organs, and possibly blindness.

Not to mention the harderned structures they are sheltering in collapse on top of them. It has been frequently reported that many Ukrainian soldiers who experience such explosions and survive surrender immediately, the psychological effect is that crippling. The pressure on the front and the Ukrainian infantryman gets greater and greater every day.

Five quick links. This first one is worth everyone’s time because it actually destroys a BBC article based on Russia’s neglect of Mariopol, a town it took early in the war and supposedly has left to rot, per the BBC. The video proves the exact opposite. Watch it here.

Second, brutal attacks on Kremenchuk, and third Russia prepares to storm Pokhrovsk.

Third, a brief summary of Russian advances along the line of contact and a Ukrainian counter-attack.Worth the 3.34 minutes of the video.

Lastly, a pretty respectful and wide ranging conversation between an American interviewer and the Russian ambassador to the UN. Longish but all in English and worth watching. It’s a rare example of no-bullshit in my opinion.

More as it develops.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 29, 2025

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On June 29, 2025

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 29, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

Remembering Bill Moyers: A Colossus of Journalism and Public Service

Jonathan Alter, June 28, 2025 [Washington Monthly]

‘We Have Lost a Giant’: Broadcast Legend Bill Moyers Dies at 91

Jessica Corbett, June 26, 2025 [CommonDreams]

Free Press Mourns Bill Moyers

[Free Press, June 26 2025, via CommonDreams]

The (anti)Federalist Society assault on the Constitution

Amy Coney Barrett and the Supreme Court Give Birth to a Disaster

Garrett Epps, June 27, 2025 [Washington Monthly]

…Three federal district courts concluded that the birthright citizenship order is almost certainly unconstitutional and barred the executive branch from enforcing it pending a final decision. The issue seemed headed to the Supreme Court, where it would be decided in the normal course of American law.

The administration, however, did an end run around that process. It filed an application with the Supreme Court that denied any interest in the issue of the order’s constitutionality. Instead, it said, it wanted the Court to look at whether district courts can tell the president he can’t do something he wants to do—to issue “universal injunctions” barring the government from, for example, stripping citizenship from any baby until the constitutionality of the order can be settled. The two things, the government suggested, have nothing to do with each other….

The Supreme Court Just Gave Trump Three Victories in One Ruling

Matt Ford, June 27, 2025 [The New Republic]

The Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday in Trump v. CASA is a disastrous moment for the American constitutional order. In a 6–3 decision, the court’s conservative justices curbed the judiciary’s power to prevent the executive branch from carrying out blatantly unconstitutional policies and orders.

The court effectively granted Trump three major victories in one stroke. First, the ruling severely narrowed federal judges’ power to temporarily halt the Trump administration’s actions in general, freeing the president from a major constraint on his policy agenda.

In response to lawsuits, lower courts had often issued what are known as “nationwide injunctions,” which blocked the executive branch from enacting a new policy while litigation continued in court. Those injunctions typically applied beyond the plaintiffs in a particular case. But Justice Amy Coney Barrett, writing for the court, held that courts had acted unlawfully by granting relief to anyone beyond the plaintiffs themselves….

The Real Judicial Coup: How the Supreme Court Just Redefined Presidential Authority

Mike Brock, June 27, 2025 [Notes From The Circus]

…Justice Amy Coney Barrett, writing for the majority, has created what amounts to a doctrine of presumptive executive constitutionality. The Court ruled that when a president issues an order that appears to violate the Constitution, courts must assume the president is correct until proven wrong—not once, but individually, circuit by circuit, plaintiff by plaintiff.

Let’s be absolutely clear about what this means: the Supreme Court has ruled that birthright citizenship—guaranteed by the plain text of the 14th Amendment—can be suspended nationwide based solely on a president’s claim of authority, and anyone who wants their constitutional rights restored must file individual lawsuits seeking individual relief.

This isn’t judicial restraint. This is a fundamental rewriting of how constitutional rights work in America….

This represents a systematic advantage for executive power over constitutional constraint through procedural manipulation. It’s not that rights disappear—it’s that protecting them becomes exponentially more difficult and expensive….

“No Right Is Safe”: SCOTUS Bars Judges From Reining in Trump

Shawn Musgrave, June 27 2025 [The Intercept]

The Supreme Court halted courts from issuing national injunctions, forcing “judges to shrug and turn their backs to intermittent lawlessness.”

By Limiting Nationwide Injunctions, Supreme Court Declares ‘Open Season on All Our Rights’

Jessica Corbett, June 27, 2025 [CommonDreams]

In a ruling that stems from the president’s birthright citizenship order, the “conservative supermajority just took away lower courts’ single most powerful tool for reining in the Trump administration’s lawless excesses.”

It’s Not Just a Constitutional Crisis in the Trump Era. It’s Constitutional Failure

Jack Rakove, June 27, 2025

[TW: Rakove is a leading scholar of the creation of the American republic. His 1996 book Original Meanings: Politics and Ideas in the Making of the Constitution dismantled many of the claims of the Constitutional originalism of conservatives, and was awarded the 1997 Pulitzer Prize for History.]

…Our ongoing constitutional crisis began with the presidential election last November 5. Reelecting an individual culpable for January 6 who has twice made a mockery of the presidential oath of office is itself a constitutional crisis. Nothing in his past or current behavior suggests that Trump has ever felt fidelity to his constitutional duties.

Once a constitutional crisis becomes an endemic condition, the term no longer usefully describes our collapsing system. Instead, we live in an era of constitutional failure when the relevant institutions cannot fulfill their responsibilities….

…When audiences at constituent meetings repeatedly shout, “Do your jobs,” they have a better grasp of Congress’s responsibility than their feckless representatives….

In the face of this congressional passivity, what path of constitutional repair is left open? Unsurprisingly, the best answer remains the courts. Although it has taken time to respond to the turmoil Trump has unleashed, the judiciary’s actions have been encouraging. Remarkably, the difference between Republican and Democratic-appointed judges has been slight, suggesting that judicial independence enshrined in Article III may be fulfilled amid this grave situation.

Yet, with the current Supreme Court, one cannot be too confident. Why? Its responses to the two 2024 critical election cases remain deeply troubling to anyone who takes the injunctions of the Constitution seriously.  The Court handled one case with striking expedition. But it manifestly stalled the other with a run-out-the-clock set of procedural delays that deprived voters of findings they were entitled to possess before November 5. The decisions in Trump v. Anderson (which involved the application of Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to Trump’s eligibility to appear on the Colorado primary ballot) and Trump v. U.S. (the presidential immunity case) should sit atop any hit list of constitutional failures….

…The second condition seems more surprising. It is the stunning inadequacy of the majority’s understanding of constitutional history and core concepts of American constitutionalism….

In our fractious polity, fresh insults to constitutional norms and settled practices of governance occur daily. That is why the phrase constitutional crisis no longer describes our situation. The Constitution has failed, and we no longer know which institution will rescue it.

Sotomayor joined by Jackson, Kagan on fiery birthright citizenship dissent 

[The Hill, via Naked Capitalism 06-28-2025]

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

Trump’s ICE Agents Are Arresting US Citizens. GOP Budget Would Hire 10,000 More. 

[Truthout, via Naked Capitalism 06-24-2025]

Trump’s secret police are terrorizing American streets: The altercations are growing more tense — especially in Los Angeles.

Justin Glawe, June 27, 2025 [Public Notice]

Militarized LA: troops here to stay as Trump doubles down on deployments 

[The Guardian, via Naked Capitalism 06-24-2025]

Justice Dept. whistleblower details senior officials’ efforts to stonewall judges, ignore decisions 

[CBS News, via Naked Capitalism 06-26-2025]

How To Talk To Your Senators About Emil Bove

Joyce Vance, June 25, 2025 [Civil Discourse]

Meet the D.C. Bigwigs Literally Profiting Off Trump’s Deportations 

[The Bulwark, via Naked Capitalism 06-26-2025]

 

Strategic Political Economy

Solving America’s Chip Manufacturing Crisis

Kenneth Flamm and William B. Bonvillian

American Affairs Volume IX, Number 2 (Summer 2025): 41–68.

[TW: Flamm documented the origins of the U.S. computer industry in his 1998 book, Creating the Computer: government, industry, and high technology, published by the Brookings Institution and available in full online. This book should be required reading for all courses of study in economics and American history because it devastates the myth of “entrepreneurial free enterprise” by showing how it was carefully created and targeted U.S. government programs and funding which allowed the risky new technologies required for computers to reach commercial success and create an entire, new industry. This new article is long and brimming with technical industrial information very few people have mastered, making it an extremely important and informative read. ]

…Economies of scale are the fundamental economic force reshaping industrial structure in leading-edge chip fabrication. For context, note that at the peak of its market power in the global computer processor (CPU) market in the third quarter of 2014, Intel alone produced a record 100 million x86 processors (x86 is Intel’s famous foundational architecture and instruction set for computer processors), implying an annual Intel production rate of somewhere between 300 and 400 million processors….

Intel’s current problems are in part linked to the relentless increase in fabrication equipment costs at every new technology node as well as to the increasing volume of production needed to reach minimum efficient scale at the new nodes. In 2014, Intel’s dominant market position gave it massive volume that was produced at multiple Intel fabs (using the “copy exactly” strategy Intel invented in the 1980s). But by 2023, Intel’s annual x86 processor volumes appear to have dropped 30–50 percent, to 190–230 million sold annually….

…in the early 2000s, Intel began to stray from the vision of its legendary early leaders Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove, who focused on fielding the most technically advanced, complex, and capable products on the market.… The connection to Intel’s current woes is that the first decade of the twenty-first century was a distracting one for Intel management. The firm’s resources and managerial attention were diverted into sales and marketing initiatives aimed at defending an entrenched position of market power. The company had lost its singular focus on technical innovation that had been its hallmark under Noyce, Moore, and Grove’s early vision for Intel….

Intel Foundry is not really a case of “too big to fail”; it is a case of “too intertwined with national security to fail.” There are no other U.S. company alternatives to Intel Foundry: the capital costs of entering advanced chip manufacturing, R&D, and production are staggering, the technology challenges and risks are massive, and all of Intel’s former U.S. competitors have by now exited advanced chipmaking. The national security imperative requires that the U.S. government backstop Intel Foundry,…

In addition to the task of supporting Intel Foundry’s commercial success, there is a longer-term financing task.58 The chips Act is a stop­gap measure. It assures some production in the United States of the pending generation of advanced chip processes, but not the following generations of chips.59 It was a onetime law with the authorization running out, as noted, in 2027; and the funding for new fab construction is already committed. The U.S. semiconductor challenge is a long-term one, and CHIPS was an important but decidedly short-term fix….

…Because the federal government refused to engage in a subsidy competition to finance the massive costs of new semiconductor fabs, no new leading-edge logic fabs had been built in the United States for over a decade, and no new leading-edge memory fabs for roughly two decades, before the chips Act.80 Congress passed the chips Act in recognition of this major security vulnerability.

But the chips Act is only authorized for five years, expiring in 2027, and it is not at all clear that it will be renewed….

Congress Is Pushing for a Medicaid Work Requirement. Here’s What Happened When Georgia Tried It. 

[ProPublica, via Naked Capitalism 06-27-2025]

…Georgia, the only state with a Medicaid work mandate, started experimenting with the requirement on July 1, 2023. As the Medicaid program’s two-year anniversary approaches, Georgia has enrolled just a fraction of those eligible, a result health policy researchers largely attribute to bureaucratic hurdles in the state’s work verification system. As of May 2025, approximately 7,500 of the nearly 250,000 eligible Georgians were enrolled, even though state statistics show 64% of that group is working.

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