A Few Words On The “Big Beautiful Bill”

Another observation: overturning Roe vs. Wade was once considered to be impossible to happen, unimaginable, i.e., “it’ll never happen.” Well, it did, and it has been completely normalized. It was not even an election issue in 2024. Democrats are not even fighting it anymore. That’s how fast it has been normalized and accepted. So, don’t have too much hope for Americans are gonna resist or push back against a retroactive revocation of birthright citizenship. Ending Roe v Wade impacted about 50% of the population, and people are now okay with it. Retroactive revocation of birthright citizenship will impact far less people.

@KT Chong
It is now a PRIORITY for the DOJ to look for reasons to denaturalize US citizens and deport them.

So, I connected the two dots. It seems to me that a logical next step and a likely outcome of combining the two: the Trump administration will move towards stripping the citizenships of people who had been born to illegal immigrants prior to February 19, 2025, if the Supreme Court ultimately allows it.

And given that this Supreme Court was willing to make a ruling that negatively and severely impact half of the country’s population, (i.e., Roe v Wade,) it is quite possible that they will also make a ruling that will negatively and severely impact a US population that is smaller than half.
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Where this is going is to prison/camps/gulags for anyone not on board with Lord Advisor Stephen Miller’s notion of How Things Work Now.

I was waiting for Ian to drop this and had to remind myself that in reality the U$A is not the center of the world/ universe. It is becoming darker, poorer, and more miserable every week or month if not every day.

KT Chong’s take is very good, yes, straight Project 2025 mainlined to kill a lot of (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security) Elders, vulnerable, poors. “America, Fuck Yeah!” The Cruelty is the Point. ICE will be expanded to be larger than Brazil’s entire Army, to detain without probable cause thousands of Americans who even mildly protest.

How mildly? Hard to say. I think the ShitLib “We don’t like Trump” rallies will mostly be ignored, mostly older, prosperous Boomers, they’re not really worth detaining, they are toothless anyway and not pushing for anything revolutionary or actually threatening to the system. I suppose anti-Zionists might be targeted. Last summer there was a pro-Gaza Peace Camp here in front of City Hall. The City Council cracked down and closed it after about 3 months. No big organized anti-Genocide movement here currently, just a small weekly protest on Friday noons, at a prominent central location . . .

It does seem that he is grabbing power in a classic Fascist move, however they are rather stupid and disorganized at the same time. War on Immigrants (even white ones, it seems!), attempts to target leaders in the anti-Zionist movement as they did with Mahmoud Kahlil, the young Turkish woman who co-wrote an anti-genocide article in her college paper, etc. The Supremes say immigrants can be deported to South Sudan with minimal (if any) due process: https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-immigrants-donald-trump-deportations-south-sudan-2094501

Only 2 of the 9 even dissented!! The ones deported there will be enslaved (if lucky) or killed if unlucky. Oh well, Americans don’t care, do they? Kilmar Abrego Garcia reported on the brutal conditions of his time in Bukele’s Gulag for his lawyers, attempting a lawsuit. It’s basically a death camp. They have no blankets, pillows, sleep 40+ to a room, bad, minimal food (he lost 31 lbs. in a month, then when it was clear they couldn’t just exterminate him, regained weight.) He recounts/ alleges one night when the guards demanded everyone in his cell sit upright all night on the floor, no sleeping, those who slumped or passed out were hit over the head with batons. He was beaten on arrival, they made him literally the first person out of the very 1st plane to arrive, bashed in the head, black eye, etc. No reading material, one hour at most out in open air during the day, etc. They have no future, why give them any reading materials, rights, etc?

A key Ian sentence: “Trump obviously doesn’t give a damn if Republicans are wiped out in the mid-terms, and Republicans know that Democrats won’t reverse their cuts, so people will have no choice and the duopoly will continue.” (I corrected if for in before “Republicans”). The DemonRats will gesture performatively when they have a majority and likely do absolutely nothing. Same donors, same game. Neo-Feudalism planned to be completely open, the most vulnerable to be killed off through neglect, the ugly face of Pinochet-style fascism is out in the open for all to see. No pretense of “Democracy” nor of “Rule of Law”/ due process anymore, why bother?

You’d need a whole cadre of Mamdami-style populists (assuming he is legit and actually does try to do real reform if/when in power, unsure if that is likely or not) to offer minimal hope. They won’t come up (as he did) in the Dem. party, where they’re not welcome, they would have to be 3rd Party, DSA (progressive, not radical) etc. Seems nearly impossible.

Rove & Bush Junior’s Magnum Opus project, The Great War of Terror, is reaching its Zenith, 25 years into the new Century, it’s come home to claim victims among those who previously supported it, or didn’t. The political class are united, the victims have little or no cohesion or organized support. Things seem very dark.

The reference to ICE-expansion, concentration camp rollouts, etc. make this video I found perhaps relevant here even if it doesn’t address the budget-aspect of ICE. Apparently ICE tried to do some kidnapping in a Haitian neighborhood in NYC, and the Haitians somewhat beat up and somewhat expelled ICE from their neighborhood. People interviewed in the video claim that videos taken of ICE-Haitian combat were all taken down as soon as they were spotted on every video service where they appeared.
The video is titled: ” Blk Americans Reactions to ICE Agents trying 2Deport Hatians & got an instant Wh00-P!n ” Here is the link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tBBs_AZy_c

Because of a statutory requirement to automatically impose budget cuts when legislation increases the deficit, the Big Beautiful Bill would require automatic sequestration cuts across the board,

That’s not constitutional. One Congress cannot tie the hands and set the rules for future Congresses. That’s the very reason why it’s possible to ditch the filibuster at any time.

Trump obviously doesn’t give a damn in Republicans are wiped out in the mid-terms, and Republicans know that Democrats won’t reverse their cuts,

More likely, the mid-terms won’t be held. Or they won’t be fair. Or the Democrats are elected,they won’t be seated. Congress will refuse to seat them (there’s precedent).

THAT’S why the Rs are ok with this. This isn’t just Trump, movement conservatism always loves a right-wing pro-capitalist dictatorship (Trump wouldn’t have had a clue to write up Project 2025, he’s too stupid. Moreover, based on recent sayings, he acts if HE doesn’t know what’s really in the bill. Mary Trump thinks he has Alzheimer’s just like Daddy Fred Trump did, where they set Fred in his office can gave him papers to sign).

As you once said, it’s US foreign policy finally being applied at home. We are the new Chile or Guatemala.

So up to now a lot of the administration’s energy has been devoted to passing this bill. Now that it’s passed, given what it does to Americans I would expect the administration to turn a lot of energy towards rigging elections. They’ve already done so many illegal things they can’t afford to lose control, and the risk of losing control in the midterms if they are not rigged (or prevented) is very strong and obvious. So, nobbling the elections is the very obvious next step.

Robin R Payne commented: “Where this is going is to prison/camps/gulags for anyone not on board with Lord Advisor Stephen Miller’s notion of How Things Work Now.”

The implicit goal in Project 2025 is a White Christian ethno-theocracy, and so far Trump’s second term has aligned with the blueprint from Project 2025, not just on immigration but also on other issues like the unprecedented expansions of executive powers, weakening judicial independence, elimination of the Department of Education and various agencies, etc. It’s all laid out in Project 2025. It’s not even a secret.

A way for Stephen Miller (a key architect of Project 2025) to reach is goal of creating a White Christian ethno-theocracy is to get rid of brown, yellow and even black people, as many as permitted, as much as possible. There are only about 4-5 millions US birthright citizens who were born to illegal aliens. The overwhelmingly majority of them are brown. Americans—who will soon enough give up on pretending and roleplaying to be virtuous—are not gonna care about that small number of people.

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Last week I mentioned the real-life “psychohistorian” Jiang Xueqin and his over half-dozen predictions from over a year ago, half of which have already come true and will come true soon enough, (i.e., Trump will be re-elected in 2024, he will start a war with Iran within two years, Putin will have no interest in any peace talk with America except to use it to delay and distract, Russia will defeat Ukraine, etc.)

Among the predictions that have yet to come true but seem very logical and reasonable that they will come true, (and he lays out the logic and reasons in his classes):

• The Second American Civil War: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Go1bMQKnJBQ&t=2330s

“… given that nature of the civil war, I think that once the war ends, the outcome will be that America will become a CHRISTIAN ISOLATIONAIST THEOCRACY. And the reason is very simple…”

And if you have not already watched this, this is very insightful:

• The Decline and Fall of the American Empire: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gH4PvIni5E&t=3215s

“Where am I getting these ideas? Am I just making these stuff up? … History tends to repeat itself. By studying history meticulously and thoroughly, we can get insights into the future. What I’m gonna show you now is there is a direct analogy between what’s happening today and what happen today and what happened in Greece in about 400 B.C…”

A few additions and responses:

to Robin Payne, somebody noted that li’l Marco Rubio, the (nominal) Secretary of State, is in the category of Americans that the Donald wants to “denaturalize”: Born on US soil but neither of his parents were citizens at the time!! But of course some people are special (connections), “Equal Justice for All” above any courtroom entrance is just a sick lie, like “equal facilities” was under decades of segregation.

Oh, and another fun fact about Li’l Marco: early in his political career he lied repeatedly that his dad fled from abuse & “torture” by the Castro regime. But in fact he fled at least a couple years prior to the Cuban Revolution, so if there was torture it was by “our guy” Batista (or our s.o.b, to quote FDR on a Somoza) so presumably he deserved it if we are all as patriotic as the CHUDs now demand!! (I am writing on July 4, after all.)

To StewartM’s comment– I believe you as to constitutionality, but to paraphrase Andrew Jackson, The Supreme Court would undoubtedly NOT see it this way (they just okayed 7-2 sending “illegals” to Somalia, after all) so it will never come to “Justice Roberts has made his ruling now let him enforce it.”

Middle class people know what’s happening to the poor with this bill- those of us who depended on those programs (just to make our lives more ‘human’) they will walk on by as grandma is chucked out of her carehome and croaks on the street. –“the rich do what they will-the poor suffer what they must”–

We’ve already been shown how willing they are to kill us all for $$$ (Covid still maiming and killing right now *only* 850 a week dying instead of 1000 and countless disabilities and consequences of just being infected)

Cuz they got theirs.

“Democracy” is gone/a lie.

Community is gone/a lie.

Friendship is gone/a lie.

FAMILY is gone/a lie.

Please send black pill…

KT Chong, on what do you base your assertion that “Putin [had] no interest in any peace talk with America except to use it to delay and distract”? I agree with most everything else you’ve said, but find this assertion to be shockingly off-base.

In response to “Like & Subscribe” on my previous use of the terms “American labors”:

In economics, “labor” is the standard term used to refer to workers collectively. Labor encompasses all human effort—both physical and mental—used in the production of goods and services. When discussing topics like healthcare costs in economic terms, it’s appropriate to use “labor” as a mass noun (singular, uncountable). Using the plural “labors” in this context was a slip on my part, as it is not standard in economic discourse.

shagggz: … on what do you base your assertion that “Putin [had] no interest in any peace talk with America except to use it to delay and distract”?

I thought it had already played out over the past few months that Putin has clearly shown Trump that Russia has no interest in any peace talks with America over Ukraine.

Anyway, here it is again, from Professor Jiang Xueqin, a real-life psychohistorian:

Putin’s Strategic Imagination: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_al2wgk49Y&t=890s

At 14:50: “… Let’s talk about the future, or what the predictions are moving forward. If it’s true that Putin’s intention is to destroy the American Empire by focusing on its three fundamental weaknesses, and he started the Ukraine War to further the deterioration of the empire—if he’s the one abetting Hamas—then we can predict that Putin will continue to do certain things. The first thing he will do is drag on the Ukraine War. He will not end it. He will not seek peace. He will not negotiate peace terms. He will continue to drag it on. Why would he do that? Why not just declare victory? Why not just negotiate peace? Why would he want to drag it on?”

Putin will drag on the Ukraine War without expanding it—i.e., he won’t attack Poland or any NATO member—in order to drain and exhaust the U.S. I recommend you watch the video from the beginning for context on why Putin would employ that strategy to destroy the American Empire. You should also watch the previous video in his Geo-Strategy series: “Putin’s War for the Soul of Russia”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEPSUC-UQ5k

P.S. Another prediction he casually dropped in the video: over the next three to four years, North Korea will start to become more belligerent with South Korea and Japan, forcing the U.S. to spend more resources in East Asia and further overextend.

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Also, Trump’s assumption that America could be any sort of mediator between Russia and Ukraine is deeply misguided. He fundamentally misunderstood the role of the United States in the Ukraine War: the U.S. is NOT a neutral party. The U.S. is a principal belligerent, which makes it fundamentally unsuited to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine (which is essentially a proxy of America).

If you look back at the 2014 Maidan Revolution, the alleged ethnic cleansing of Russians and Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine, and the violations of the Minsk I and II Agreements—all of which were backed by America (i.e., the CIA and the U.S. State Department)—you can see that the U.S. has spent about a decade setting up and provoking Russia into attacking Ukraine.

America is deeply entangled in the Ukraine war as the principal backer of Ukraine and the real adversary of Russia. This makes any American mediation effort—such as those attempted by Trump—inherently compromised and futile, as Putin knows the U.S. is the real enemy and NOT a neutral party.

KT Chong, I think you buried the lede by not mentioning Maidan and the Minsk treaties until the end. The West never sought peace, and actively slapped down such overtures from Putin. It used his good faith striving for peace as a weapon against him, and even bragged about it. Without that crucial context, it is very easy to reinforce the fundamentally inverted framing of Evil Putler the Aggressor. That is what ends up happening when statements such as “Putin started the war” or “Putin’s goal is destroying the American Empire” are made in that decontextualized void.

The professor whose views you seek to elevate styles himself a “psychohistorian” which makes these sorts of errors especially inexcusable, in my opinion. The supremacist philosophy animating the West’s permanent expansionism based on its own “rules” is what keeps neutral negotiation off the table, and bears emphasizing. To the West, sovereignty is an affront.

I am steadily working my way through his Geo-Strategy series of Youtube videos you’ve posted and often find myself having to actively remind myself of the forest his trees of superficially true statements pull me away from seeing. While I can strain to give him the benefit of the doubt, he also says some real kneeslappers that make me seriously question whether he has the slightest idea of what the hell he’s talking about. The most egregious of these would be his claim that Isnotreal would become a regional power were America to withdraw its support. He makes a similar claim for Germany, which would be less obviously false than it would be for Isnotreal (already sputtering despite blackmail levels of American support), but not for reasons I suspect he intends. In reality, the removal of American “support” would allow Germany to pursue mutually beneficial trade relations with Russia. The purpose of NATO is to prevent this from happening.

KT Chong, I agree with everything you’ve said regarding the West’s implacable hostility towards Russia (though would be curious to hear what you think Russia did to earn the hostility of the Eastern Europeans), and that Putin’s greatest crime was not rolling over. To a supremacist, independence is an affront.

I still think it’s misleading to frame it as “Putin wants to destroy the American Empire” because the latter’s destruction is a consequence of its own refusal to tolerate peaceful coexistence. Putin wants peaceful coexistence, and security for Russia. Putin is not the one maintaining the initiative in actions that results in the Empire’s destruction, and is not the aggressor because he refuses to roll over and die.

Putin wants peaceful coexistence, and security for Russia.

Which Russia? That’s a serious question. What is Russia? In Putin’s mind? Is it anywhere Russian boots have been on the ground as Putin taunts?

Do you realize how absurd and insane it comes across to say this? That Putin wants peaceful coexistence? He invaded a neighboring country and is occupying part of it as he wages war on it and bombs its civilians on a daily basis in what to me is tantamount to terrorism. And please don’t hand me that nonsense that NATO and the EU goaded him into it. That is utter bollocks. If true, Russia is toast considering such weak ineptitude that its leader could so easily be goaded.

Forever the “left” has made this mistake and continues to make it. The enemy of your enemy is not your friend. The “left” in Iran did it and joined forces with the mullahs and political Islam and in short order its so-called ally eliminated it. Many communists did it in America in the early 20th century going so far as to emigrate to the Soviet Union from America only to be sent to the gulag. If you stand on principle, and clearly the “left”, historically at least, doesn’t, then this mistake does not repeat itself. There is no good tyranny. It’s all bad. One tyranny isn’t better than another. One tyranny shouldn’t be supported over another. All tyranny everywhere should be opposed in both sentiment and deed, no exceptions.

@ Eric Anderson,

One wonders if Ian Welsh might extend permission to those readers who wish make their own pamphlet-format copies of posts and even threads for ad hoc distribution on street corners. If this were to create costs which would have to be covered, perhaps
he might agree to permit this for people who pay to cover the costs of that permission.
( I don’t know how these things work).

The concern about personal safety of speech being done online might create a new renaissance of off-line computing. Millions of stand-alone computer owners with the ability to download things onto disks or hard drives or thumb drives or other self-contained storage media and sending thousands or millions of such memory devices between the millions of owners of millions of standalone computers with no online presence at all. The words of Ayatollah Khomeini in exile in France reached his followers in Iran on many thousands of individual cassette tapes with no online steps at all involved.

Catapulting the samizdata.

Like & Subscribe: which Russia? The Russian Federation, the painstakingly legalistic entity that voted on and ratified accepting the Banderist-occupied oblasts’ votes to please join the Federation as they were getting ethnically cleansed. It even cited America’s own Kosovo precedent for the UN justifying humanitarian intervention in an analogous situation, just for the laggards still clinging/aspiring to the pretence that these “rules” America pulls out of its ass are actually laws. Yes, I understand it comes across as “insane and absurd” that Russia is acting defensively and legitimately to someone who does not bother to look into the extensive and consistent history of Western betrayal and aggression. “But he invaded!” is good enough for you, context be damned.

Feral Finster: “And it works. Any educated normie knows the litany and he doesn’t want to hear anything otherwise..” Yep, that appears to be L&S’ thought process in a nutshell.

different clue: “Samizdata.” Nice 🙂