The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

BLS Alters How It Counts Core PCE Inflation – Guess What Changed?

~by Sean Paul Kelley

From the Seoul Economic Daily:

The overhaul is expected to partly resolve an unusual gap between PCE and the more widely known Consumer Price Index (CPI). The annual core CPI rate in June was 2.6%, while core PCE was estimated at 3.3%. Typically CPI runs slightly above PCE, but recently the two reversed because of software and investment advisory figures. Both items are expected to show smaller increases after the overhaul.

Why the change? Well, “chipflation” was bleeding into software.

The SED continues:

For the software price measurement being revised, the BEA uses the BLS computing cost index. But that figure includes items such as USB flash drives. Their prices have surged amid a spike in demand for artificial intelligence (AI). The result was a distortion in which rising hardware prices were reflected in the software index.

For some reason game consoles are included in the software measurement. As I argued on July 14, these numbers are fraudulent. And this story is pretty solid evidence of that reality.

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5 Comments

  1. Carborundum

    I don’t think the article is as clear as it might be. Here’s a Fed Note on the topic, which is a lot clearer: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/measurement-of-computer-software-and-accessories-inflation-20260522.html

    As a technical note, I don’t think it’s video game consoles – the article mentions video game *software* which makes a lot more sense.

  2. spud

    neo-liberal, neo-classical economics, “lets pretend that its real, then we build on it from there”

  3. Nat Wilson Turner

    How many layers of fix can be put in?

  4. spud

    We still use bill Clintons way of counting the unemployed, just ignore the ones who have been unemployed for a year or longer, then walla, not only has the unemployment stats look good, but so does poverty stats because bill Clinton just forced a whole generation of women to become prostitutes and most likely drug dealers.

    So you see this can go on forever, till it doesn’t. After 2001, I said this mess that was created, will implode soon, yet just about everyone was caught flat footed by 2008.
    ————

    Under Bill Clinton’s administration, individuals who were unemployed for one year or longer were not counted in the official unemployment statistics, which can make the unemployment rate appear lower than it actually was. This practice is part of how unemployment data is reported, affecting perceptions of economic health during that time.
     FactCheck.org americanprogress.org

    Unemployment Reporting Under Bill Clinton
    Official Unemployment Statistics
    During Bill Clinton’s presidency, the method of calculating unemployment statistics had a significant impact on the reported unemployment rate. Specifically, individuals who were unemployed for one year or longer were not included in the official unemployment figures. This practice contributed to a perception that the unemployment rate was lower than it actually was.
    Implications of Excluding Long-Term Unemployed
    • Perception of Economic Health: By excluding long-term unemployed individuals, the statistics presented a more favorable view of the economy.
    • Impact on Policy Decisions: The reported lower unemployment rates may have influenced economic policies and public perception during Clinton’s administration.
    Summary of Unemployment Practices
    Aspect
    Description
    Exclusion of Long-Term Unemployed
    Individuals unemployed for over one year were not counted in official statistics.
    Effect on Unemployment Rate
    This exclusion made the unemployment rate appear lower than it was.
    Economic Perception
    Contributed to a perception of a healthier economy during Clinton’s presidency.
    This reporting method is important to understand when analyzing the economic conditions and policies of the Clinton era.
     americanprogress.org FactCheck.org
    Excluding long-term unemployed individuals from unemployment statistics can understate the true weakness of job opportunities in the labor market, as it fails to account for those who are not actively seeking work due to discouragement. This can lead to misguided policy decisions that do not address the needs of the long-term unemployed, perpetuating their economic struggles and social mobility challenges.
     epi.org frbsf.org

    Welfare reform in 1996 led to unintended consequences, including an increase in neighborhood prostitution among some women who struggled financially. This was observed as some individuals turned to sex work as a means of survival after the reform limited welfare benefits.
     greaterdiversity.com Cato Institute

    Impact of Welfare Reform on Prostitution
    Overview of Welfare Reform
    In 1996, President Bill Clinton signed the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act, which significantly changed federal welfare policy. This reform ended the legal entitlement to welfare benefits and imposed time limits and work requirements for recipients.
    Unintended Consequences
    One of the unintended consequences of this welfare reform was an increase in neighborhood prostitution among some women facing financial hardships. As welfare benefits were restricted, some individuals turned to sex work as a means of survival. This shift was particularly noted among women who struggled to make ends meet after losing financial support from welfare programs.
    Observations of Increased Prostitution
    Reports indicated that women, often from low-income backgrounds, engaged in prostitution as a way to cope with the loss of welfare assistance. This phenomenon was observed in various neighborhoods, where women resorted to sex work to provide for themselves and their families. The situation highlighted the challenges faced by those who found themselves without adequate support systems after the reform.
    While welfare reform aimed to encourage employment and reduce dependency on government assistance, it inadvertently led some individuals to seek alternative means of income, including prostitution. This outcome raises important questions about the effectiveness and consequences of such policy changes on vulnerable populations.
     Cato Institute U.S. Senate

    Drug dealing and use increased significantly during Bill Clinton’s presidency, with teenage drug use rising by 80% since 1992. This period saw a notable rise in drug-related crime and a decrease in drug prosecutions.
     National Archives

    Increase in Drug Dealing During Clinton’s Presidency
    Overview of Drug Trends
    During Bill Clinton’s presidency, drug dealing and use saw a significant increase. Key statistics highlight this troubling trend:
    • Teenage Drug Use: Increased by 80% since 1992.
    • Overall Drug Use: Reported to have more than doubled among teenagers from 1992 to 1995.
    Impact on Crime
    The rise in drug use was closely linked to an increase in drug-related crime:
    • Arrestees Testing Positive: Over two-thirds of all arrestees in 1995 tested positive for at least one drug.
    • Homicides: In some urban areas, up to 80% of arrestees tested positive for drugs, with a significant portion of homicides being drug-related.
    Decrease in Drug Prosecutions
    The Clinton administration also saw a decline in drug enforcement efforts:
    • Drug Prosecutions: Dropped by more than 12% from 1993 to 1995.
    • Funding Cuts: The Office of National Drug Control Policy experienced staffing cuts of over 80%, leading to reduced effectiveness in drug interdiction efforts.
    This combination of rising drug use and decreasing enforcement measures contributed to a notable increase in drug dealing during Clinton’s time in office.
     National Archives Federation of American Scientists

    Bill Clinton implemented the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, which included provisions for mandatory life sentences for repeat offenders, funding for 100,000 new police officers, and increased funding for prisons. While proponents argue it contributed to a decline in violent crime, critics claim it exacerbated mass incarceration and disproportionately affected communities of color.
     BBC FactCheck.org
    —————

    So you see, lets pretend its real and we can build on it from there, can go on forever, till it does not. As Lenin said, all of a sudden things change.

    We still live under these policies, and everything done since 2001, is to try to paper over those disasters. Every time the paper is applied, that short term fix window gets ever shorter till we see today.

    So just like pre 1933, everything since 1993 has been for the stock and financial markets, everything. It can go on forever, till it can’t.

  5. spud

    more on relying on statistics that lie about reality. PPP and GDP is dead wrong, why does china and russia cite it all of the time to compare to america.

    and i have always said since 1993, keen and pickttey proved it, is that there really has been little or no real productivity gains in america, nor wage gains. its all counting foreign inputs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4A88jIfa-LM

    The GDP lie hiding America’s decline

    Yanis Varoufakis and Wolfgang Munchau reveal how mainstream statistics are routinely weaponised to fabricate false narratives of Western prosperity while ignoring the realities of real-wage stagnation and decaying public services, as both Europe and the United States lose ground to China.

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