Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: 2028 American Elections

Rahm Emanuel Turning On Israel Is Good

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On July 13, 2026

25 Comments

Rahm Emanuel might be the biggest asshole in politics. That was certainly the consensus back in the 2000s when I had lots of political contacts. He’s also filth in many, many ways and I don’t trust him.

But this is good. This is very good:

“Over the last five years, Israel has evolved from being lauded as the start-up nation to becoming, in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s words, a modern-day Sparta,” Emanuel said. “You have turned from being known for your technological prowess to being considered primarily a territorial pariah.”…

… “If I have anything to say about it, every Israeli found attacking Palestinian civilians or their property in the future will be sanctioned,” Emanuel said.

You are free to doubt Rahm’s sincerity. I sure as hell do.

Rahm is a very skilled political operator without any real principles. He gets things done, he’s a leader in the party and he’s genuinely feared by other politicians. His personal presence is intimidating.

And this is the sort of guy you need to turn. He was pro-Israel before not out of principle, as he claims, but because it was politically expedient. And he’s anti-Israeli now because he wants to be President and he’s not stupid like Harris, he can see that support for genocide is electorally toxic. If he wants to win the primary and the election he needs to be anti-Israeli.

Years of Americans seeing video after video of Israelis killing and torturing doctors, children and women have finally moved past the point that even Zionist control of essentially every major media outlet can mitigate. Generations of belief that “Israel are the good guys, the David facing Goliath” have been burned up in the fires of a live-streamed genocide.

So, this is good news. We don’t get a lot of it. Feel free to be cynical about Rahm, I sure as hell am. But that someone like him has turned matters and it gives other politicians permission to turn, because Rahm genuinely is a leader in the party.

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Vance Is Trying To Thread That Vice Presidential Needle

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On June 19, 2026

21 Comments

J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice-president has often said that his job is to support the president.

He’s also made sure that people know he was against the Iran war, the 12 day war, and so on, with careful leaks. Publicly he’s all pro-whatever Trump says or does, but he’s trying to have it both ways.

The MOU gave him a present, he was able to say that Israel are ungrateful turds who shouldn’t be so violent: nine million people can’t kill their way out of all of their foreign relations troubles, and that Trump is the only major world leader who has supported them (essentially true. In this calculus only Russia, China, Turkey and the US matter.) Israelis turning on Trump are ungrateful. (Well yes, but you didn’t expect people whose idea of making war is to kill children en-masse to have a fine moral sense.)

Anyway, here he is:

Vance has always had a very narrow road to follow. He wants to be President. He can’t directly oppose Trump on anything publicly because even if Trump is driven from office in disgrace, there’s a hard core of primary voters who will never give him up. On the other hand Trump’s becoming increasingly toxic and it’s pretty clear that he’s going to leave office very unpopular.

This issue killed Kamala. She was ahead and doing well. I still remember when she was asked on TV if there was anything she’d have done different than Biden. She said no. And it was at that moment I knew that Trump was going to win: she needed to say something, even something a bit weak “well, I admire what the President has done, but I’d like to have done even more to bring down grocery prices and to end the Gaza war” say.

Vance is attempting to get around this with his loyalty pledge: you support the President even if you disagree, but you can disagree and advise him so be hind the scenes.

He’s hoping that two-step, “I was loyal to Trump, but I would have done some things differently” will keep him electable.

We’ll see. A lot will depend on who Democrats nominate. Democrats rarely select their most popular candidate, they prefer party loyalists who can be expected to keep the corporate pork rolling and not upset important funders like the Israeli lobby.

If Democrats serve up a lukewarm candidate and if Vance makes his turn correctly, he could squeak in as the next President.

Iran MOU update: As predicted the Israelis kept attacking in Lebanon, the Iranians said they wouldn’t go to the signing in Geneva on Friday till the fighting stops, and negotiations won’t start till they do. Israel appears to be attempting to take an important strategic point Ali al-Taher hill. Hezbollah is going all out to stop them. We’ll see if the US is capable (politically, it can easily do so in principle) of discipling Israel. 

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

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