J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice-president has often said that his job is to support the president.
He’s also made sure that people know he was against the Iran war, the 12 day war, and so on, with careful leaks. Publicly he’s all pro-whatever Trump says or does, but he’s trying to have it both ways.
The MOU gave him a present, he was able to say that Israel are ungrateful turds who shouldn’t be so violent: nine million people can’t kill their way out of all of their foreign relations troubles, and that Trump is the only major world leader who has supported them (essentially true. In this calculus only Russia, China, Turkey and the US matter.) Israelis turning on Trump are ungrateful. (Well yes, but you didn’t expect people whose idea of making war is to kill children en-masse to have a fine moral sense.)
Anyway, here he is:
US Vice President JD Vance, in a New York Times interview, criticised Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich for their opposition to the Iran deal, saying that “you can’t kill your way out” of security problems pic.twitter.com/JGr3rn4o0b
— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) June 19, 2026
Vance has always had a very narrow road to follow. He wants to be President. He can’t directly oppose Trump on anything publicly because even if Trump is driven from office in disgrace, there’s a hard core of primary voters who will never give him up. On the other hand Trump’s becoming increasingly toxic and it’s pretty clear that he’s going to leave office very unpopular.
This issue killed Kamala. She was ahead and doing well. I still remember when she was asked on TV if there was anything she’d have done different than Biden. She said no. And it was at that moment I knew that Trump was going to win: she needed to say something, even something a bit weak “well, I admire what the President has done, but I’d like to have done even more to bring down grocery prices and to end the Gaza war” say.
Vance is attempting to get around this with his loyalty pledge: you support the President even if you disagree, but you can disagree and advise him so be hind the scenes.
He’s hoping that two-step, “I was loyal to Trump, but I would have done some things differently” will keep him electable.
We’ll see. A lot will depend on who Democrats nominate. Democrats rarely select their most popular candidate, they prefer party loyalists who can be expected to keep the corporate pork rolling and not upset important funders like the Israeli lobby.
If Democrats serve up a lukewarm candidate and if Vance makes his turn correctly, he could squeak in as the next President.
Iran MOU update: As predicted the Israelis kept attacking in Lebanon, the Iranians said they wouldn’t go to the signing in Geneva on Friday till the fighting stops, and negotiations won’t start till they do. Israel appears to be attempting to take an important strategic point Ali al-Taher hill. Hezbollah is going all out to stop them. We’ll see if the US is capable (politically, it can easily do so in principle) of discipling Israel.
🚨BREAKING: A Huge Battle Ongoing With An Enormous Amount Of Israeli Casualties In South Lebanon
Israel is advancing from three different routes towards the Ali al-Taher Hills area.
4 Israeli military vehicles completely destroyed, Hezbollah fires AD missiles at warplanes &… pic.twitter.com/oyfpjMQXym
— MintPress News (@MintPressNews) June 18, 2026
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Bob
Isn’t the crux of the biscuit here that the US just has to turn off the weapons spigot if they genuinely are opposed to what the entity is doing?
Looks like the entity has taken a real pasting in the hills. On their own channels they are blaming Hezbollah for breaking the ceasefire.
With the alleged oil crisis in the balance, surely even the most demonic of demons must realise their PR is not going to get any better by making Iran close their strait again?
j
There’s not much need for Iran to trust US in the deal, other than the not messing around in internal affairs. Either the promises materialize in 60 days, or they don’t.
What’s going to make or break the deal is then Israel. I find it difficult to believe Israel is going to care about any of the deal, but i also find it difficult to believe the US is going to throw them under the bus, either.
In which case it’s back to status quo ante pacem, with the US running low on missiles, Iran having the upper hand, and economic destruction on the horizon.
To quote the somewhat misquoted Gramsci: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”
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Trump and Vance best not travel together. Israel is looking to take both Trump and Vance out. Mike Johnson is their man. He will do whatever Israel asks of him up to and including nuking Iran.
Versailles was an interesting choice, all things considered. Afterall, it’s where German leaders betrayed Germany and bent over and took it up the arse, as if they had any other choice. It’s also where Trump bent over and took it up the arse from Iran, on paper at least, but of course, as I say, there is no deal because it’s impossible to have a binding deal with Agent Orange Krasnov.
Personally, I think it’s more likened to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact where both parties to the agreement were playing one another but in that process, Stalin further legitimated and platformed and emboldened Adolph Hitler as Iran has done with Trump.
As the saying goes, you dance with the devil ….
Forecasting Intelligence
My money is on Marco Rubio winning the GOP primaries. But we will see.
US Spectator reporting that sources close to Vance saying he might not even run in 2028.
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The reflecting pool boondoggle is emblematic of the MOA. This is what happens to everything Trump touches. It’s all a scam. The Dems can never nor would they ever clean up all these messes Trump has created.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/lVN6FH2v878
The paint is peeling and the algae is back — all for the bargain basement price of $14 million. What a deal. What a deal.
Meanwhile, Moscow is being bombed and Russia’s air defenses are defenseless against it. Putin needs an MOA with Ukraine. Maybe Trump can consult him on their weekly calls about how to structure the faux capitulation.
Carborundum
I wouldn’t discount the potential of Hezbollah attacking Israeli forces to keep the conflict going. Increasing the daylight between US and Israeli interests (i.e., between conflict termination and continuation) is strategically useful. I suspect they also have to be wary of Iran throwing them under the bus (similar to the situation that HAMAS found itself in, pre-October 7).
mago
Vance doesn’t have a chance imho, but what do I know?
Four Israeli soldiers die in a tank and Ben Gvir says all of Lebanon must burn after Israel casually massacres thousands of civilians. Bad and getting worse.
spud
kamala faced the same dilemma as gore did. the quack neo-liberal pundits in the media barked and brayed if only gore had run on bill clintons polices, he would have won.
but the quacks actually thought the new world order based on the gutting of the new deal and finance and free trade instead, whilst gutting real productive wealth, manufacturing, was a winner.
gore wisely stayed away from bill clintons policies, hoping he could squeak by, he did better than i thought he would have.
if gore had spoken up against those polices, he would have won by a large enough margin to beat any attempts at cheating.
till the democrats come clean on clinton, their never ending line up of neo-liberal stooges they run, will face what gore and kamala faced.
MAGA is solely a response to clintons polices, and obama bailing them out and cementing them into the way the economy is run.
trump might have realized the mess he made, doubtful but you never know, and is attempting to re MAGA america.
i would not be surprised to hear him hint at fixing health care using medicare for all, fixing social security allowing policy adjustments to stiffen it up and expand it, or even student loan debt.
of course the clintonite democrat party will fiercely fight any of that, trump knows full well they will, also trump knows full well none of it will get done, so he is safe to hint at them.
thus in 2028, the new clintonite stooge will struggle.
Feral Finster
Keep in mind that the vice president is an elected office and cannot be fired.
Which makes Harris’ refusal to do anything other than follow the presidential line especially detestable.
Mark Level
From your keyboard to God’s/ Dog’s ears, Ian!! Recently J.D.’s been widely nicknamed “No Chance Vance,” ‘coz Trump always shits on those nearest him, and the Zio-Linked Neocons in the admin wanted him sidelined in favor of Narcito, Li’l Narco Rubio, more reliably Zionist and pro-foreign (failed, as this one did) wars. As the recent Confab in Versailles was on its final day, his handlers must’ve given DJT the kind of uppers that kept brain-bleed Biden briefly somewhat coherent. He did a just over an hour Press Conference and Comedy act about suddenly becoming “Woke”, he now thinks the Israelis are Losers, he’d rather (he says) be “friends” with Iran, they are more sane and “better” people!! The CIA lie that the kid in Butler, PA who AI-assisted shot off the tip of his ear (not really, many think it was AI) was sponsored by “Iran”, no evidence, the boy had only worked for Blackrock before, his only power connection. A patsy, like Lee Harvey Oswald.
Vance’s puppeteer is The Reptile, Peter Thiel (neat anagram), a South-African White Supremacist, like Elon, keeps JD on the payroll despite his marriage and breeding with a brown (East Indian) woman, very liberal of him!! Being a South African Nazi (basically), Thiel has no more fealty to the Zionist Entity than Elon does (tho’ Elon made to do a Humiliation tour of Auschwitz with the smirking homunculus Ben Shapiro after an openly anti-Jewish post on his own X.) I’ll repeat myself, JD is every bit as evil and callous as the rest of them, BUT he is smarter than nearly all of them as well. Pete Hegseth could orally fellate Daddy by trumpeting that “He doesn’t do stoopid wars, that’s why he’s the bestest President ever” right before Donald Dumb launched the biggest defeat of the US Empire ever seen in the 250 years of its revolution and existence.
Vance saw this coming. So did Charley Kirk, which is why he was publicly sacrificed, hell even Marco Blondie (Rubio in Spanish is “blonde”) stated after Bibi sat at the head of the table and pitched his quick Regime Change spew that it was “bullshit,” only Daddy fell for it. (And we all know the kiddie pics most likely reason.) General Kaine against it, everyone but Donald.
Vance had to re-route a flight in recent days, as there was a credible threat to kill him in Switzerland, some sources say. Now who’d want to do that? No mystery.
Back to the post. Yes, any Selected Dimmie Nominee will be a turd sandwich, on the scale of Kamala or Hillary in 2016. The Dimmie elites care only about fundraising, not winning elections, they care about posturing Center-Right “Lib”, “tolerant” on cultural issues (yet often throw the “fight” as they did with Roe v. Wade, among many others), and hippie-punching, pioneered by Bill Clinton, is their favorite pasttime, don’t let ANYONE remotely genuinely left, shit, not even Bernie near the levers of power. Your take on Kamala’s self-inflicted Learned Helplessness is very obvious. The idea of her acknowledging that Palestinian lives of any kind, hell the children included, having any value, well that idea could never for one second enter her “beautiful mind.” To quote Barbara Bush. Kamala was still ranting about 40 Beheaded Babies, “Systematic rape” of dozens or hundreds of good white women by the Subhuman Philistine monsters all throughout her campaign, completely discredited (even Israel admitted it has not the name of a single victim.)
A lot is going to have to go Right for J.D. to have any real prospect of a ’28 victory. First of all, Trump will have to not TACO and go crawling back to Bibi. As Mercurial as DJT is, we all know that’s a 50/50 shot, at best. But when the only alternative is worldwide economic collapse for which the US and Israel alone will shoulder all the blame, Trump might’ve actually gotten his Mind right, only time will tell. The Demoncraps don’t care about weilding power, the RapePublicans live only for that. I bet we all recall 2 decades ago when the Dems believed “demographics” (fewer white people, no longer a majority) alone would save them. When you won’t do jack shit for your “constituents”, of course they stay home, or vote for the other side, the Winners more glamorous, I knew that Trump would win in a cakewalk, horrible, criminal piece of shit that he has been his entire life.
Good comment from Bob, and yes, the Israelis now openly genocidal toward ALL of us goyim “Cattle,” no more Liberal Zionist posturing. Aleister Crook on Nima’s show recently said that Hezbollah nowhere near the deweaponized Paper Tiger the Izzy military (once upon a time at least competent) wishcasted, hitting the bastards hard.
Only 2 Zionist semi-regulars on this site, one was wishcasting some days’ back that (paraphrased) “Oh, Iran is tottering, it’s on the ropes, maybe the Kurds will grab some land” etc. etc. (I broadbrushed that, it’s mostly correct). Dream on. The more overt Genocidal Zio “Forecasting Intelligence” on a recent thread yawned, said essentially “Nothing to see here,” echoing Biden’s “Fundamentally nothing will change.” FI noted for a brag some years back, very “proud of all the things Israel was doing in the 1980s. Specifically, I suppose, the Genocide of 200,000 Guatemalan mainly indigenous people in remote villages, bashing in children’s heads, throwing corpses down into wells to poison the water table so harder for survivors to come back. Oh, and massive aid to Botha and the Boer genociders in South Africa fighting those evil Cuban “communists.” And collusion in murder with the Pinochet regime, slaughtering “Leftists” old and young, throwing people out of planes bound, no prospect of survival, no bullets wasted in any case. And lest we forget, after the Boland Amendment passed and direct US Aid to the terrorist Contras cut off, they filled in the money and weapons both, a good act of charity. In the meantime, Ronnie had run Iran-Contra to get elected, our Enemies yesterday our best pals today, nothing but change to keep the Murder Train rolling on.
Good comment by j as well, the silly “Memorandum of Understanding” has only indirect levers to enforce it, but I certainly don’t doubt the new, blooded Iranian leadership will use those levers if needed.
Ian’s point about the few consequential States militarily stands. 2 months back, Zionist hope of opening a new front against their mostly allied pal, Turkiye. That’s far in the rear-view mirror now, however. Killing daddy and then Vance might be easier and more successful. I hope whomever serves Daddy’s daily Big Macs doesn’t add anything to it.
Thermobarbaric
Re Carborundum: “…. I suspect they also have to be wary of Iran throwing them under the bus (similar to the situation that HAMAS found itself in, pre-October 7).”
Hamas was never an actual partner in the Shia Axis Of Resistance which would be Iran, Hezbollah, the Shia regions of Iraq and Alawite Syria when it was previously ruled by the Assads.
Hamas is Sunni not Shia and during the Syrian civil war years it often sided with the Salafists and Jihadis who were trying to overthrow the Assad leadership. It was the late great IRGC General, Qassam Soleimani, who persuaded Putin to intervene and it was that Russian intervention together with combat units of Hezbollah and IRGC volunteers who helped stem the Jihadi tide for around 10 years,. That Jihadi regime change op was supported openly by the GCC, Turkey & the USA with the CIA and Pentagon backing competing groups.
The fact that Iran still includes Gaza in the various ceasefire settlement talks is a reflection of Iran’s growing clout and reputation as the defender of Islam in the greater Muslim world. The major Sunni nations have done absolutely zero against Israel which is what one would expect from semi-feudal vassal states with nepotistic and inbred ruling classes. The Egyptians are corrupt, compromised and worthless. The Turks bluster a lot but Iran ie the Shia forces who WON this conflict which must stick in Erdogan’s craw.
And Iran isn’t going to abandon a critical and combat hardened military and political force like Hezbollah. One can read many non-MSM reports online about how they’re putting up a fierce fight in southern Lebanon and killing and wounding many members of the IAF aka the Israeli Atrocity Force.
different clue
Fascinating to think that Vance could in theory win the 2028 election.
Didn’t he argue hard in those Situation Room meetings for keeping the Epstein files essentially covered up and releasing essentially nothing? ( Perhaps under cover of a Nixon-style qualified-limited hangout?)
Here is a little found-on-reddit item about some of the facilities and supplies known to be at Epstein’s house.
From the SipsTea subreddit . . . ” Ohh…check this out”
https://www.reddit.com/r/SipsTea/comments/1uakk6q/ohhcheck_this_out/
Fascinating to think that the Dems could throw the election so totally that they could get Vance elected.
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The fact that Iran still includes Gaza in the various ceasefire settlement talks is a reflection of Iran’s growing clout and reputation as the defender of Islam in the greater Muslim world.
Yet Iran never includes Gaza or the Palestinians in its official demands in regard to a ceasefire let alone a peace deal.
Iran is not serious and neither is Israel and America when it comes to ceasefires and peace deals. Iran knows Israel will never agree to give up ground in Lebanon and cease hostilities with Hezbollah and it knows America will never stop Israel from doing as it wishes in this regard. IF Iran is raising the issue of Gaza and the Palestinians in talks but not indicating that in official statements and proclamations, that further supports my point that Iran is simply not serious about any of this and for whatever reason is going through the motions. I mean, if withdrawal from Lebanon and ceasing hostilities with Hezbollah is already a bridge too far, Gaza and the Palestinians are doubly so. Why go through the motions at all? Good question. Any guesses? Surely it’s more than just, or something aside from, principled posterity.
Other than that, great summation of the whole morass. Thanks!
Mary Bennet
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“Trump and Vance best not travel together. Israel is looking to take both Trump and Vance out. Mike Johnson is their man. He will do whatever Israel asks of him up to and including nuking Iran.”
Now that is interesting. I have long thought that the only explanation for Johnson’s shenanigans is that he believes he can somehow become president without having to win an election. Should that happen, I think it is clear he will be facing a hostile congress no longer fearful of AIPAC or the Trump faithful.
Carborundum
Hezbollah is first and foremost a Lebanese resistance movement. People love to draw these very rhetorically convenient direct, commonly unidirectional, links between Hezbollah and Iran to support various arguments of the day, but it’s a good deal more complicated and situational than that. Keep in mind, the parts of Hezbollah that were most closely linked to the Iranian state apparatus have taken significant losses (beyond just this most recent direct conflict between Israel and Iran) and there has been a pretty significant changing of the guard in the leadership of both sides. If one was ever going to see Iran making decisions that cut against Hezbollah’s interests, this is what the situation would look like.
To be clear, throwing under the bus here doesn’t mean abandoning Hezbollah entirely – it simply means de-prioritizing Hezbollah’s issues relative to the significant challenges (and opportunities) facing the Iranians.
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Should that happen, I think it is clear he will be facing a hostile congress no longer fearful of AIPAC or the Trump faithful.
Yes, but thanks to Project 2025 and the Supreme Court and Congress itself, a hostile Congress is irrelevant. It has been rendered impotent and is now relegated to holding useless finger-wagging hearings.
IF there was a true Left in America, the time has never been better for a Dictatorship of the Proletariat. Trump and his cabal have done the heavy lifting and transformed American governance into a dictatorship. The only thing remaining for the Left to do, if it existed in America, would be to Carpe Diem. Instead, the so-called Left in America will vote Dem again as they always do and cement once and for all, an 80 year run of fascism.
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Hezbollah is first and foremost a Lebanese resistance movement.
Correction, it WAS a resistance movement. Whether or not it still is and if it is to what degree compared to its initial years of inception and existence, is open to considerable debate.
One thing it is at this juncture and maybe it always was thus to one degree or another, is a political foil for all sides involved.
Oh, I forgot to add, it is now also a drug dealer, praise Allah. I’m fairly certain it wasn’t during its early years. You gotta do what you gotta do, right?
Ian Welsh
Didn’t find any source for Hezbollah being a big drug trader that I’d trust. Remember how the opium trade in Afghanistan went. Taliban stopped it. Lost power. It boomed. Got back in power. Stopped it again, and they NEED money.
Somehow Vietnam was the biggest source of heroin when the US was there, too.
Mind you, Hezbollah might be, not saying it isn’t. Just that I don’t trust shit that governments which call Hezbollah terrorists say about them. Once you’ve labelled resistance terrorism everything else you say is suspect.
Carborundum
It’s not so much that Hezbollah is directly involved in the drugs trade, it’s more involved on the money end of things (laundering, international funds movement, etc.), though they did have a “consultant” problem about 20 years ago (a free lancer, ironically following the well established retired IDF / Int pathway). FINTRAC has worked a number of Lebanese targets quite extensively over the years and there is very credible evidence of Hezbollah involvement.
Hezbollah is absolutely a Lebanese resistance movement. Understanding that is the first step to understanding why they do what they do and why so much of what is said about them is flawed.
different clue
If Vance gets the Republican nomination, I will certainly vote Blue No Matter Who to keep Peter Thiel’s good little doggie Vance out of the office.
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https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TUL3tjMGR7o
Carb, Hezbollah is clearly not what it once was. It’s doubtful it’s still an effective resistance group first and foremost. It has morphed this much. It may still provide resistance, but it’s a matter of degree and it’s not necessarily that first and foremost any longer.
This makes logical sense. Historically, this is what happens with militant groups or any groups really. Take Gladio, for example. Once upon a time, it was a good notion but it evolved, ironically I might add, into a fascist tool and became a terrorist organization that acted on behalf of the ruling elite. I’m sure William Colby didn’t intend for Gladio to become what it became, but it became that nonetheless.
I have no doubt Hezbollah is involved in the drug trade to fund itself. It’s a criminal enterprise at this point and yes, of course, Ian, no one is without culpability and sin when it comes to this. I will not argue that America isn’t a criminal enterprise too but the difference here is, America, the name that is, doesn’t literally mean Army of God. Hezbollah means precisely that so the hypocrisy is uber stark.