A friend pointed out to me that Israel’s support is eroding hard. The elite consensus is shifting. Point in case:
Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir, an anti-Arab racist zealot, says “all of Lebanon must burn.” That’s almost 6 million people. Hideous. https://t.co/ONlrB9jpjo
— Jake Tapper 🦅 (@jaketapper) June 19, 2026
The hard core Zionists will keep opposing this deal, of course, but there are two groups that are shiftable. The first is the one that Tapper belongs to: he’s an authority follower. He’s been hardcore pro-Israel and loathes Muslims, but his first instinct is to follow the leader. Trump’s made a clear turn, and Jake is following.
The second group are those who need administrative favor. Their livelihood or plans depend on the levers the President controls favoring them. They were for Iraq, for Ukraine, etc… but they have no strong ideological commitment, only self-interest.
Trump made a mistake letting hard core Zionists roll up media and social media, but there’s still enough run by self-interested or follow the leader types that if Trump stays solid, the American elite zeitgeist will shift towards his stance. Israel is an ideological commitment, it’s not, for most elites and courtiers, all that involved with making lots of money or being part of the in-group. If the window shifts, they’ll shift with it.
At a fundamental level what happened is that America got itself involved in a war which it couldn’t just walk away from. Losing in Vietnam was embarrassing but really, who cares? Just walk away. Losing in Afghanistan, likewise.
But the Iranians have the West’s balls in a vise and the vise was slowly tightening. Key reserves were way down. Oil at Cushing OK is near historic lows. Distillates are getting scarce. Market manipulation of the price of oil was very successful, but actual physical shortages were on the way, starting in a month or so. (Ironically, price manipulation meant that oil reserves drew down faster than if actual price discovery had been allowed.)
There is a real world, and a real economy and Iran had control of it. The econo-morons talking about how the effect of this has been less than the oil shocks are right when looking at market numbers, but it wasn’t going to stay less and even Trump figured that out.
So the neocons and the hard Zionists will attack, but if Trump had the least concern for the actual economy, he had to make a choice.
Meanwhile Israel is still fighting in Lebanon and the first real battle of the Lebanese invasion is taking place.
The situation on Ali Taher hill and its outskirts right now:
It is outstanding how the resistance heroes, after all Israeli terror and devastating attacks for about 3 years, were able to repel the invasion of the “5th most powerful army in tge world”.
If something can be used to… pic.twitter.com/Q4Gh0Gx5NE— Hadi Hoteit | هادي حطيط (@HadiHtt) June 19, 2026
Both Hezbollah and Israel are concerned there’ll be a new, actually real ceasefire and Israel is seeking to create facts on the ground. Ali Taher hill is an important strategic objective, giving whoever controls it sight lines for miles around. This is the first large engagement I’m aware of in this invasion where Hezbollah has chosen to stand and fight, instead hitting and fading. (That’s not a criticism. Guerilla warfare makes sense for them.)
And so far they’re doing well, because the Israeli ground forces are actually crap.
The Iranians have not gone to Geneva for the signing or negotiations. They are holding firm on Lebanon. And that means Trump can either rein in the Israelis or the vise starts tightening around America’s balls again.
America cannot win this war. It is impossible. Even using nukes probably wouldn’t work fast enough. That’s why they agreed to a deal that is very pro-Iranian.
That has not changed. They can rein in Israel or cut it loose now, or they can do it in two months when the US is in much more pain, or in 4 months when there are food riots.
There’s a real world. America lost a war that matters. There’s going to be a price for that. If America is smart and not completely controlled by Israel, they’ll pay that price now and if necessary cut Israel lose, because the price will go up every day if the MOU fails.
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Adam Eran
This Iran thing isn’t the only hemisphere where US belligerence appears. See : https://www.laprogressive.com/foreign-policy/bipartisan-war-on-venezuela
Remember Woodrow Wilson had a nation of pacificists to convince to go to war in Europe, and he managed to do that with marketing! Even prohibition served to demonize those awful Germans making our beer.
We’ve come a long way, baby!
Feral Finster
“If America is smart and not completely controlled by Israel, they’ll pay that price now and if necessary cut Israel lose, because the price will go up every day if the MOU fails.”
That word “if” is doing a lot of work there.
StewartM
My question is on Israel: how could a nation throw away so many advantages it had even a generation ago, if it is cut off by the US and loses bigly?
My personal answer would be the oft-quoted policy of Israel fanboys “You don’t negotiate with ‘terrorists'” Which in turn effectively means that every diplomatic problem becomes a nail to be hit with a military hammer, not something to be settled by talking to your opponents.
mago
“They can rein in Israel.” Ha ha. It’s a theoretical possibility. Eisenhower was the first one to kick them in the gonads. JFK died on that hill. Others such as Obama shuffled sideways.
But what I wanted to say is the homonym curse didn’t kick in. Ever since Ian talked about his weakness in that province, I can’t get rain, reign, rein out of my mind. Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain rain rain, and I pray (not prey) that it does in drought stricken realms.
And I’m appreciative that I was born into an English speaking culture, not to mention white, because you’ve gotta take what you can get.
Get a pair DJT and kick em where it hurts. What’s it to you, aside from maybe the biggest win in your life, if you were only so wise as to recognize it. Hoping your handlers find the optimal med blend to keep you steered to port.
(Don’t know why I use nautical terminology given that I have an aversion to all things related.)
Sailing, don’t know where I’m going. . .
And there are some dire straits, or is it straights (?) out there. All I know is don’t draw to an inside straight, although my poker days are long gone, along with another kind of poker. But who knows? Miracles are possible, and blessings come to even the most humble and seemingly undeserving.
Mark Level
Spot on, Ian. It wasn’t the US MIC that overturned the table, leading to victory, it was the Iranians.
Jake Tapper stepping away from his years’ long support of genocide in at least 8 countries? Who could’ve foreseen that? Well, Caitlin Johnstone for one. The day after Oct. 7 Zionist-engineered breakout and attack from the Concentration Camp, she said watch people’s social media, watch what they say and who openly embraces Genocide. Sarah Silverman was among the first, liked her provocative comedy at one time, she did an a.m. wake and bake with weed (according to many sources), put out constant calls to mass-murder all the Untermenschen. Then again, no surprise, because Susan Sarandon was pro-Palestine her agent and Talent agency dropped her, a non-person.
Helen Mirren lived in Israel and said she saw “lots of Arabs lose their homes, thrown out on the street, but the country had such a beautiful, powerful energy when I lived there that I loved it.” She recently did a walk-back, decades too late.
I won’t link to it but Max Blumenthal makes exactly the same points you make here. I don’t link coz he was on the Moron, and “colonized mind” Mario Nawfal podcast. Mario like 3 minutes in demanded of Max, “Shouldn’t Iran have to admit that the Israelis have a right to defend themselves,” like a goddamned brainwashed parrot.
I’ve long despised him, took another look at his background. So minutes before Nawfal had Max on, he was talking to some goon from the Jerusalem Post, who convinced him that “Hezbollah must be eliminated”, Mario stated that NO country could tolerate a non-governmental “2nd Military”, that threatens public safety, etc.
Here’s what’s really gross about Mario, he is Lebanese (!), family moved to Australia when he was like 7. He’s not the Shi’a Lebanese who are the main group being exterminated and having their houses demolished, his family were Greek Orthodox. Not good Greek Orthodox like Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou of the Duran, bad G.O. like oh, I love the scummy, ethnically appointed Christian jefe, Michel Aoun, who worked to create a toothless Lebanese military, causing the rise of Hezbollah (actually Max had to explain to Moron Mario the original rise of Hezbollah in the 80s, during the massacres in Lebanon with their Falangist fascist allies. to actually defend Lebanese lives.
Mario is a moron on the level of Piers Morgan, can be taught actual facts but forgets them within minutes, not even days. I know people with early-onset Alzheimer’s who are sharper than he is, and he looks like he’s in his late 20s. But enough about that cretin, & self-hating White Supremacist.
Max made exactly the points you make, great minds think alike. He was clear that the Trump 180 degree pivot was forced, he doesn’t want starvation and to be impeached after the R’s lose everything. He added that large parts of the US Ruling Class have started to hate the Zionist Entity, because of how extreme and murderous they are.
And he stated that they were responding to polling, all the Normies who aren’t Tribal Supremacist are exhausted and hate the daily genocide of children, women, 8 open fronts to murder, steal, lie.
Even lifelong Zionist shills like Tapper walking away. I bet Dana Bash won’t though!! I wonder when the last time Tapper marched in the NYC “Israel Day Parade” was? Not many years back now.
At this point, Mahatma Gandhi’s First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win is very close!! US’s biggest War Defeat in its entire history, and as Ian notes one they can’t just walk away from.
Due Dissidence yesterday did a great segment on major student protests among Elite and regular Universities by students on the Pro-Palestine side, a Palestinian flag raised by a student ripped down by an Administrator, a Valedictorian gets her mic cut when she raises the issue, has to yell to the crowd, threatened with no diploma (they gave it to her 4 days late.) Etc. Ironically, Harvard is no longer scared of the Donald, “They let it rip,” said Keaton, and indeed they did in the film shown. Columbia University, in the past had a memorial to its famous Free Speech Movement, canceled their 2024 Graduation Commencement entirely. Those fucking ingrate students complain about Genocide, crybabies, shut them up proactively.
Can’t share that, sadly, they’ll probably post it in a day or 2. Here’s a sop, the same theme from a month ago, when history hadn’t jumped half a Century ahead, like it has since February 28.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaqxqJAwpNA (PS: This video was from when Russell Dobular was still on his 4.5 month trip across 5 Asian countries, so Keaton just speaking solo, a bit boring, healthy vegetables not always tasty.)
Oh, and one more bit of good news from a few days back. Francisca Albanese, Human Rights Rapporteur at the UN debanked, sanctioned, etc. by the Trump DOJ, they just won in a US court, she’s no longer under that particular gun. Btw, the Mamdami victory in the World’s 2nd most populous Jewish City was a bellweather, sign of how things have turned. And they won’t be turned back, not even the Laura Loomer/ JD Vance-promised false flag, “an Iranian will walk into a US football stadium with a Nuclear Armed Vest” would walk things back. US lacks the juice.
cc
The US is in an extra-prolonged Wile E. Coyote moment where gravity has been put on hold.
Will the Wall Street manipulated markets stave off reality until after the Fourth of July? Until after the Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs can raise their desperately-needed billions from the world? Until after the mid-term elections? Until the end of the year?
Didn’t Trump openly admit or claim that oil reserves are set to run out in about four weeks?
So Wile E. Coyote’s denial of gravity can probably hold out until at least after the 250th anniversary of Independence (*).
(*) there may be independence from historical Britain, but the US most certainly does not have much independence from the Thiel-Karp-Hoffman-Sacks-Bankman-Fried-Soros-Adelson-Ellison-Altman-Zuckerberg-Wilcoff-Kushner-Netanyahu-Epstein class that rules the US – quite the opposite, their hold has probably never been stronger (ex. as seen by the crackdown on criticism of Zionism and its genocide, including via ICE.) But how long can it be sustained? If there are signs that a recent small shift is starting, hopefully it can continue. There’s a long way to go. At this 250th anniversary of “Independence” there is a real need for another struggle for independence – from that class and, more generally, from oligarchy and plutocracy.
@Mark Level, happy to see the bit of good news on Francisca Albanese. What was allowed to be done to her and many others shows the extent to which that class rules the US and most of the Western world (what the heavily-indoctrinated insistently think of as the “free world”.)
ventzu
Israel is hated in the US and around the world: see this Pew Research
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/06/04/most-people-across-36-countries-have-negative-views-of-israel-and-little-confidence-in-netanyahu/
What this highlights is the contradistinction with western political/media/business elites. The unfavourability score despite all the pro-Israel propaganda and policies.
Note also the shameful score of India.
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Get a pair DJT and kick em where it hurts. What’s it to you, aside from maybe the biggest win in your life, if you were only so wise as to recognize it. Hoping your handlers find the optimal med blend to keep you steered to port.
Yet another one who provides cover and apologia for the most despicable, disgusting creature to ever reside on this living planet. The so-called “left” does it as much as the so-called “right”, they claim Trump has no agency and he’s the victim of something, be it Israeli blackmail or dementia or both and more.
This disgusting, despicable creature from the green reflecting pool, versus black, lagoon has agency and he alone is responsible for his own actions. He is incapable of growing a pair just as he’s incapable of harboring what some call a soul and a conscience.
Bob
Hormuz Strait is closed again. Is the US really going to crash civilisation for the genicidal entity?
What’s going on?
(Silly question)
mago
You misread my meaning Mr L&S. There’s no question about Trump’s odious character and actions. I’ve been aware of him since the 80’s, I’m just not so emotional about it. He could bring Israel to heel if his billionaire buddies see it as being in their best interests. No support from this side for Trump or the rest of the Epsteiners.
Excellent comment by cc, by the way.
DMC
This may wind up being a case where Trump’s egomania and vanity actually work toward the common good if he offers to put a decapitation strike on Netanyahu for screwing up his “brilliant deal”. Pettiness for the win?
Mark Level
Thanks to mago for telling the truth. I wished my Uncle a Happy Father’s Day yesterday and we caught up, he’s a Big Wheel in the South Dakota business scene, my dad passed in 2022 age 77, Uncle Larry is kind of an intermediate link between us, he married into the big, Catholic German-Irish side of the family. His dad was an alcoholic loser, and he grew up very poor. I had to flee my dad’s threats when I was 19, was out of contact with the parents for 4.5 years until after I’d returned from Central America, living in New Orleans, nearly 25, I knew he couldn’t send the men with the butterfly nets to get me, a vain threat years before. So Larry dated my dad’s youngest sister, Mary, and dad, very successful in Insurance in Chicago, mentored him. After sharing the family stuff, politics and the failed War came up, Larry has been a hard-core Republican Striver for many years, I doubt he ever went Trumpist though. So I shared that I despised Trump (like Mago, since the 80s, I bought Spy Magazine every time it was on the Newsstand). As the song says, “Well, when I was young I knew just who to hate, from the teachers in our class to the Leaders of the State.” But I also shared that I thought DJT did one good thing in each admin, in the first, cancelling Obama and Hills’ TPP, which would’ve robbed sovereignty over environmental laws, safety, food safety laws etc. in the US. He did it purely out of personal spite, it’s the kind of thing that the R’s love, but the issue helped him defeat the Shrillbot, and he stuck to his guns. And his TACOing on the Zionist Tail wagging the dog is great. I despise Last Chance Vance too, but go man go!!
mago, Trolls gotta troll, gotta seek their toll, surprise attack from under the bridge. Hating the haters barely worth the energy. LAS loves him some Susan Collins, his political beliefs incoherent, all over the map. I hope he’s at least walking the walk and giving money to her doomed campaign. Hell, I gave money to Bernie twice in the past, might as well have flushed it down the toilet.
Bob, yeah I followed that too. Very good article on Naked Capitalism that showed in detail how Iran is working with China and Russia on walking the walk, Ian’s “if” isn’t doing that much work per Finster, IF in this case means will. Also they’re balking at the “Peace” negotiations, have warned that direct attacks on the Zionist Slaughterhouse will be launched. China especially, to a lesser extent Russia has deep economic ties to the Gulf States, is advising people like Qatar and UAE not to cede their airspace to USA, seems that TrumpCo won’t even try. I don’t think many if any of the 13 US bases will be re-occupied. Possibly Iraq, just to threaten Iran with proximity, it seems the weakest link, all their oil money goes straight into US coffers. Iran might get their stolen money paid back, bigly. Iraq too divided, lacks the Juice. Larry Johnson covered with Nima around Saturday that the Trump folks had MIC staff in Israel packing up and scheduling removal of U$ Bombs, Ordnance, Weapons systems, working 12 hour on/off shifts. Sounds credible, I certainly hope it’s correct.
Oh, thanks to ventzu for the link as well. Yep. Not just the RoW now, but large #s of ‘Muricans hate the Zionist Genocidal Death Cult, in both parties. (Killing Charlie Kirk not a wise choice, backfired. Harper’s a couple months back cover story “How Gaza broke MAGA.”
The Fat Lady is singing soonish in Mideast, also in Russia. Europe on the ropes, irrelevant. Macron claimed he wanted to send ships to “Open the Strait!!” As if. US won’t go in, nobody else can. Watch out Greenland, first in line before Cuba, Cuba a much smaller prize long-term.
Chris West
Mossad still has enough Epstein kompromat on everyone in DC to get anything they want