The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Information Overlord: Houthis Roll, Hegseth Bumbles, AI Doomer Hype, Lots of Music Talk

Nat Wilson Turner = Information Overlord = Flames Up = Phones Out = No Sense of Urgency

From me this week as Nat Wilson Turner

This week at Naked Capitalism I pulled a shift covering the Iran War and tried to connect the dots between Pete Hegseth’s Department of War and what’s going on with Meta and OpenAI.

I also continued my “Joe Biden’s Three Genocides in Four Years” series with the first installment of the Ukraine debacle.

More of what I wrote and recorded for The MMA Draw and The Let It Roll Podcast is at the bottom of this post but I wanted to feature the news links and think pieces.

What I’m Reading and Watching

The Iran War

  • The Iran War Has Just Had A Major Phase Change — Ian Welsh. On the interceptor math: the US runs out long before Iran does if Iran chooses to go all out, and hitting only three or four tankers a day was a choice rather than a ceiling.

“As I said day one of the war, the math is on Iran’s side: the US will run out of interceptors long before Iran if Iran chooses to go all out.”

Empire, and what it remembers

The AI trade

The AI Doomers really had their moment this week. I hope y’all know most of that crap is as overblown as the hype.

Money

What the heck is going on with the bond market, private equity, etc

 

Also worth your time

My Work at The MMA Draw as Nate Wilcox

Sadly, my work covering combat sports continues to converge with my political work as Ari Emanuel’s TKO (which owns the UFC, WWE and a nascent attempt to monopolize boxing) is largely financed by the UAE and Saudis. They’re also using the GOP Congress to push legislation to allow them to monopolize boxing. I did get to feature some MMA History from Tony Loiseleur.

My Work at Let It Roll as Nate Wilcox

My inner music history nerd has been very extroverted this week. You’re welcome.

From the Beginning — We’re continuing to work through all 400 episodes re-presented in chronological order. This week our episodes bridged the gap from

Labor Day Songs & Stories — Yves Smith was kind enough to let me feature ten Labor Day/working class episodes of Let It Roll on Naked Capitalism. Here are the shows I featured:

Avant Garde Meets Rock:

Next week I’ll be dropping an essay on the influence of the Avant-Garde on 60’s rock so I put a bunch of episodes on Substack to prepare. Sadly I haven’t done episodes on Frank Zappa or Paul McCartney’s avant-garde influences yet.

Support and follow my work at NatWilsonTurner.com.

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Open Thread

26 Comments

  1. bruce wilder

    Jamie Galbraith’s essay, The Impotence of Being Kevin Warsh on how the tools and concepts guiding monetary policy may no longer fit an economy on the lee side of degenerating global hegemony and generating a massive, accelerating fiscal deficit makes me curious about the real and fantasized power of AI.

    I know: a weird connection to make but hear me out. It raises a number of issues around how we should think about AI and what it can do for us. We are titillated about Navier-Stokes proofs — a Milennium Challenge, don’t ya know? — but what do we get if we unleash OpenAI on the controversies of monetary policy? Can an LLM “think” about the theories of money and finance?

    I submit that human thinking about money and monetary policy doesn’t do much to confirm the hypothesis of human intelligence. Humans don’t do well sorting out the distinctions between the effect on prices (and the general “price level” however you may conceive it) of changes in the “quantity” of money on the one hand and productivity-enhancing technological progress.

    (Here’s a hint: the quantity of money and credit has to keep pace with the volume or pace of transactions using money and credit to settle to maintain a “price level” but the concept of a “price level” is challenged conceptually by a proliferation of products and services as well as the claims of economic rent. Productivity-enhancing technological progress affects relative prices — falling product prices and rising factor prices; everything cannot go down at once.

    Arguments among the cognoscenti are conducted in academic silos, lest a food fight featuring Olympic-calibre handwaving break out.

    I am naively curious whether a “prompt engineer” could elicit greater understanding of how the U.S. rode “quantity easing” and “ample reserves” to record numbers of billionaires, while China came to totally dominate manufacturing and university research.

    The thought experiment of imagining AI doing economic theory research raises issues interesting to me. Would an LLM just mimic the shibboleths of academia, repeating dubious, incoherent claims in an “authoritative” voice? Or, would an AI agent get to work to find and resolve inconsistencies and just generally “do some math” on logical relations and available statistics, such as they are? Could an AI agent resolve a controversy like it can allegedly prove a theorem?

  2. Mark Level

    My sincere thanks to Nat W.T. for the breadth and thoroughness of his reporting. Read most of the NC content, and it seems this is one of those weeks wherein “decades” occur.

    Glad to see UAE and Saudis fighting one another, and the Pakistanis won’t betray the other Arabs. It seems a tide has turned. After a month outside the US, hard to summon up much interest but note the Trump Clowns have really screwed the Pooch 9 ways from Sunday, and USA is fvcked!! Had to happen, what a great accelerationist that group of circus clowns is. Laughter is the best medicine and they provide plenty.

    Oh, and nobody outside US is buying “Lake America” nor will New Mexico soon become a “New America.” Trump went from being an incisive Insult Comedian who took down the Bush family himself in 2016 to an irrelevant, deranged old Queen who will be a joke to future Historians. Huzzah!!

  3. upstater

    Re. Stop Panicking About AI — Matt Stoller

    What Stoller is oblivious to is that AI is expressly being designed as a weapon to wipe out actual populations of “our” enemies. Sure “rule of law” has become a joke… but that isn’t a bug to be corrected, it is an intentional design feature.

  4. mago

    The House of Saud is a crumbling structure with rotting corpses in the basement and skeletons in the closet.
    Everything outs sooner or later.

  5. Eclair

    Nat, what a great list of readings and watchings and listenings. I now have a play list for a weekend of ‘putting up’ tomatoes, green beans, corn and pickled beets! Thank you!

  6. Nat Wilson Turner

    Hope you enjoy! Let me know what you think of any you especially like or loathe.

  7. spud

    the AI scammers are simply trying to scare and black mail americans, into bailing them out.

    blues rock is the best, yardbirds, savoy brown. early fleetwood mac, cream, etc. types of music. besides regular rock, and classic rock.

    terrapin station was the best grateful dead album.

    50’s rockabilly, young love, a white sports coat and a pink carnation ballads were really good.

    bo diddly, the father of hard rock.

  8. mago

    What spud said. The Brit’s popularized the blues with their renditions that resonated with a young white American audience, myself included. Add Jeff Beck to the list with his seminal Truth album featuring Rod the mod Stewart on vocals. That shit rocked.

  9. Nat Wilson Turner

    You might enjoy my episode on the Jeff Beck Group with biographer Dave Thompson — who wrote a book about the Truth album, not the band — Jeff Beck, Rod Stewart & Ron Wood Nearly Perfected Hard Rock Before Led Zeppelin Even Formed. It’s audio only, I haven’t put it on Substack yet.

    The one that got away was my interview with John McLaughlin’s biographer. He’s the missing link from the UK blues scene to the US jazz fusion scene. He was originally the guitarist in the Graham Bond Organisation with Ginger Baker and Jack Bruce, spent several years in session hell with Jimmy Page & John Paul Jones (he only played rhythm, didn’t want to give away a single idea), before hooking up with Tony Williams and then Miles Davis.

    I’ve got episodes on Jimmy Page, the 60’s London scene as a whole, Rod Stewart & the Faces, and tons more. Here’s the complete list of episodes

  10. mago

    Wow! Thanks for all of that NWT, I saw John McLaughlin with the Electric Light Orchestra live in Boston. Had front row seats. Ravi Shankar opened. Those were the days.

  11. I could rock out with spud and mago!
    “Then Play On”, “Bare Trees”, and “Mystery to Me” are three Fleetwood Mac albums I still enjoy. While taking a sample for my latest lid purchase my dealer was usually playing those albums. (Oh the bittersweet memories of a misspent youth!)
    Savoy Brown was a terrific band!
    I will close with a shout out to Wishbone Ash …

  12. spud

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/a9p9hgOeWhA

    China creates its own credit; the West insists governments borrow from the rich, because bankers want a feudal choke point on the whole economy. Michael Hudson. Henry George School of Social Science. #economics #michaelhudson #shorts

  13. spud

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YJwSWNVaPpY

    From Adam Smith to Marx, classical capitalism was revolutionary because it aimed to abolish the landlord, rentier and banking classes. Michael Hudson on what capitalism was meant to be. Henry George School of Social Science. #economics #michaelhudson #shorts

  14. spud

    david lamy:

    in my youth, i got lucky to see fleetwood mac with peter green, oh well. green manalishi, rattle shake snake were something else! savoy brown with the lookin in, raw sienna line up. i’m leaving again was unbelievable live!

    wish bone ash, awesome!!!

  15. mago

    Some considered Savoy Brown a B list band, but a younger version of myself wore out their albums. Leaving town . . .

    And oh, yeah. Fleetwood Mac. Loved their music, but when I saw them live in Seattle Lindsay Graham was so coked out the show sucked.

    Did I ever mention that I dated Phil Lesh’s ex for a while? Man, the stories. . .

  16. Mark Level

    Glad that since it’s Sunday nite where I am, and no Weekend Tony update yet I checked in on the music thread here, which I otherwise would’ve missed. I love nearly all the cuts y’all listed, starting with Nat and spud . . . I’ll out myself here, turning 67 next month.

    Only stuff not listed that immediately comes to mind in the genre would be Flying Burrito Brothers, and the Allman Brothers for Southern hard rock. Also completely different genres, but from that era I love Gil Scot-Heron, The Revolution Will Not be Televised and other similar stuff, Grandma’s hands, etc. Black music not diluted by whites. Oh yeah, “You Just Keep on Using Me Until You Use Me Up.” “Makes Me Wanna Holla,” etc.

  17. Nat Wilson Turner

    @Mark Level
    I’ve got an episode on Gram Parsons.

    I’ve also got an episode on Gene Clark that might interest you, if you’re into former Byrds gone country.

    Sadly I haven’t gotten to Gil Scott Heron yet. Although I’ve got a whole season on funk and quite a bit on early 70s disco and nascent hip hop.

    I’m ashamed to say I haven’t covered southern rock much, (except ZZ Top) since it’s basically my native genre. But I plan to.

    And Ed Legge, the music writer who co-hosted my 80’s Roll mini-series is literally the guy audibly yelling “Free Bird!” on the Lynyrd Skynyrd “One From the Road” double live album and saw them and the Allmans live many times. We will get to that!

  18. mago

    Rock on.
    Love that Lynrd Skynrd and southern rock and roll in general.
    The Allman Brothers live at the Fillmore.
    Ah, days gone by.
    We all know the revolution won’t be televised, but what about Arthur Lee and Love Forever Changes?
    Yeah, I know. Never mind.

  19. Nat Wilson Turner

    @mago I’ve got Love covered.

  20. marku

    I saw the Allman Bros at play at a “battle of the bands” at my local high school (GHS, In Gainesville FLA). It was just before their first album came out, and they did it as a favor to my local music store, (Lipham’s) who had sold them most of their gear.

    They were the first band up, and started out with “Whipping Post”. What is this, 2 drummers, 2 lead guitarists? Killer instrumental, and then this tiny white kid at the organ started singing….

    Man, what a show.

  21. different clue

    @Upstater,

    Is AI being developed to wipe out “our” enemies? Or is it being developed to wipe out almost all of us ourselves . . . in line with Operation Long Jackpot?

    Just a thought . . . Y’all have a good day.

  22. different clue

    @spud,

    I have heard Cory Doctorow present the AI-scare theory for extorting bailout from the public. Also, for getting a government-imposed slowdown to slow their rate of mutual cash-burn because they don’t trust eachother in a “voluntary mutual slow-down” arrangement

  23. spud

    different clue:

    yea i kinda thought so. again, libertarian capitalists, looking for that socialist bail out. it was a scam from day one. as steven keen noted, when you free trade, you no longer invest in your people, your infrastructure, your technology, your manufacturing because, as bill clinton said, we can just buy it.

    now that has come home to roost, and all that is left is, scams and paper manipulation.

  24. different clue

    @spud,

    American politico-social culture sometimes seems like a steamy jungle where traditional ideologies ( bad enough) meet and mate and produce hideous hybrid offspring.

    Like Liberfascistarianism, for example?

  25. spud

    its natural for so-called thinkers like ludwig Von Misses, frederick hayek, milton friedman to gravitate to fascism. the idiotologies are practically the same.

    capital over sovereignty, capital over civil society, and capital over labor. see argentina, or any other crack pot government that comes into power.

    https://thomashainsworth362.substack.com/p/the-libertarian-road-to-fascism

    The Libertarian Road to Fascism
    Thomas
    Mar 03, 2025
    The Political Spectrum and Libertarianism

    The political spectrum is often discussed in simplistic terms—left vs. right, authoritarian vs. libertarian—but real-world politics rarely fit into such tidy categories. Right-wing libertarianism, also known as anarcho-capitalism, presents itself as a radical alternative to state control. Thinkers such as Ayn Rand, Friedrich Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, and Murray Rothbard have shaped this ideology, advocating for free markets, minimal government intervention, and absolute property rights.

    The Mont Pelerin Society, formed in 1947, played a crucial role in promoting these ideas among policymakers and economists. Superficially, this ideology appears anti-authoritarian, championing individual freedom against state coercion. However, in practice, right-wing libertarianism has often led to extreme inequality, corporate dominance, and conditions ripe for authoritarian governance.
    …

  26. different clue

    I once thought of a good book title. The Road To Serfdom Is Private. If someon wanted to write a semi-satirical book under that title, they could give themselves a satirical pen name like Friedpoor Nyuknyuk. Or some such thing.

    I don’t know if a good book could be written for that title. But if it could, I have hearby given away the title.

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