France has been in a long decline. Money is constantly shifted the rich and to pay for it austerity is pushed. Most recently the French government wanted to, again, increase the pension age. This decline shows up in stats that most people ignore, for example, food consumption per capita:

As usual, France systematically understates inflation, so you can safely assume that the line hasn’t gone flat since 2004 or so, but continued to decline.

The war with Iran and Russia, meanwhile, has lead to increasing fuel shortages:

There are currently widespread riots in France. The triggering event was police brutality:

A high school student protested that the public school’s toilet was leaking and full of rats.

The protesting kid got beaten by the police until their mouth was bleeding, and even got shot right in front of their face. x.com/melenchon4ever

Several kids also ended up with their hands mutilated by the police. x.com/neruda57/statu

The peak of it was a kid getting drowned by the Police. x.com/alertesinfos/s

This police brutality awakened class consciousness among all the high school students in France.

> Intel started infiltrating. Some tried to deflect by pushing the narrative that this protest was caused by Muslim immigrants to scapegoat them for the unrest. x.com/abdoulafar7631

Rioting then spread to Spain and Belgium. Meanwhile there are massive protests in Albania, originally triggered by Kushner wanting to buy up a huge chunk of Albania’s seashore. This is so serious that when the Supreme Court ruled for Kushner, the protestors burned it down:


In India there are massive student protests. The government moved 50,000 troops and militarized police into Delhi and set up massive roadblocks. That didn’t stop the protesters, who used the roadblocks against the police and systematically slashed police vehicle tires. The roadblocks wound up actually slowing the police and military down.

The key thing to understand is that provocations happen all the time, the French police have never not been brutal bastards. Like a spark in a forest, it’s only dangerous if there’s plenty of dry tinder: people who are on the edge of rioting anyway because they’re unhappy with their lives.

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This is the start of a LOT more civil unrest unless the US and Israel end the Iran war. Fuel shortages will increase, food prices will jump this year and even more next year, and people who feel like they have little to lose will take to the streets. There isn’t a lot of trust left in the system: majorities believe that the people ruling them don’t care about them, and they’re right. If people believed in their rulers, this wouldn’t be happening, at least not yet.

So all of this will spread. In India I expect that there will be serious farmer riots in the next year, something that India is prone to anyway. In Europe, even after these protests are suppressed, there will be re-occurrences and they will become more serious and more widespread.

It’s always difficult to predict Trump, but the most likely scenario, supported by massive movement of ships, planes and troops, is that after the mid-terms the war will start up seriously again. The US and Israel WILL lose: they don’t have enough interceptors and munitions to win and the idea of invading Iran successfully is ludicrously stupid: it will not happen, and if it is tried, it will be a catastrophe.

But the Iranians have been warning that if there is an escalation, they will hit hard this time, and given how much they’ve increased attacks on tankers, their words are supported by their actions.

Meanwhile the Sauds are getting ripped up by Ansar-Allah. They are completely unable to defend anything from missiles and they’re doing badly on the ground. Egypt has said they’ll send troops, but for “defense only” and I doubt it will make a serious difference. So oil, fertilizer, helium and other resources from Saudi Arabia that aren’t already offline are at risk and there’s no reasonable possibility of fixing infrastructure, since Yemen can just blow it up again.

At the same time China keeps adding new items to its export bans. They’re particularly targeting Japan, but Europe and America are getting hit as well.

All of which is to say, this is just the start. Expect more civil unrest in more countries, possibly including your country. This entire mess has been handled very badly, with an emphasis on keeping oil prices artificially low and not in conserving inventories or making sure that affordable oil and fertilizer get to important sectors like farming. So fuel will go up, food will go up, prices in general will go up, there will be more unemployment and people will be angrier and angrier with less and less to lose.

The correct action would be to admit defeat and end the war, but until the US is under much more stress, that seems unlikely.

Brace yourselves.