Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Biden Administration Page 1 of 2

Democrats will not adapt to this defeat

By

On November 6, 2024

Comments

There won’t be any introspection.

Empires, like fortunes, are lost slowly and then all at once.

I’m afraid what is coming is going to fall on every American fairly equally like the snow on the graveyard at the end of James Joyce’s “The Dead”

Yes, the newspapers were right: snow was general all over Ireland. It was falling softly upon the Bog of Allen and, further westwards, softly falling into the dark mutinous Shannon waves. It was falling too upon every part of the lonely churchyard where Michael Furey lay buried. It lay thickly drifted on the crooked crosses and headstones, on the spears of the little gate, on the barren thorns. His soul swooned slowly as he heard the snow falling faintly through the universe and faintly falling, like the descent of their last end, upon all the living and the dead.

Democrats who have themselves not yet fallen into precarity or the economic abyss can not and will not accept that our system is completely rotten and we need to change course and leadership.
It took the GOP from 2008 to 2016 to admit that the Reagan/Bush playbook and leadership class was bankrupt and had to go.
It will likely take multiple election cycles before some figure or movement arises that can win a Democratic primary. And given that the Democrats have a long and proud history of sabotaging the most popular and most likely to win the general election candidates it might require a whole new party emerging.
Democrats had their chance at a new direction and likely multiple administrations and an even longer dominance of the Congress with Bernie Sanders but rejected the clear will of the overwhelming majority of the young voters of their party.
Those young voters are drifting away in multiple directions.
Of my comfortably retired upper-middle classic acquaintances none are even willing to admit publicly (some will in private) that the Democrats make poor tactical choices, much less admit that the whole party and every individual needs to really re-evaluate their approach and even core beliefs.
Trump is at least a wild card which presents some chance of positive change, but the odds of radically negative change are much higher.
Regardless, the status-quo has been thoroughly rejected by the majority of the American public.
That is a fact people need to accept in order to try and steer that majority in the least self-destructive direction possible.
It’s unfortunate that the members of professional-managerial class (and those of us who have pretensions to it) have never truly accepted the idea of majority rule.
We’re going to lose a war in humiliating fashion — with an outside chance that it will be over quickly — which will trigger economic collapse (and that’s if we don’t start nuking people).
Then and only then will our ruling elites turn on each other in something that will be like a post-modern parody of the first American Civil War.
Hopefully it’ll be over in 5-7 years and some of us will be alive to adjust to the new normal and enjoy a few decades of relative peace as we adjust to penury, plagues, and rapidly worsening climate change.
Jonathan Cook had some good observations:

Kamala Harris didn’t lose because she’s a woman or because she’s black.

She lost because, if your political and media system – rigged by donors – limits the choice to two hardline neoliberal candidates, with anything else denounced as “communism”, the most hardline, neoliberal candidate has an edge.

Over time, the system keeps moving further to the hardline, neoliberal right. You can’t stop that relentless shift by voting for one of the two symptoms of your diseased political system.

You have to rise up against the diseased system itself.

As did Freddie de Boer:

You can’t blame losing the popular vote and all seven swing states on Jill Stein.

You can’t blame losing the popular vote and all seven swing states on Putin and the Russians.

You can’t blame losing the popular vote and all seven swing states on Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

You can’t blame losing the popular vote and all seven swing states on Joe Rogan.

You can’t blame losing the popular vote and all seven swing states on Glenn Greenwald and The Young Turks.

You can’t blame losing the popular vote and all seven swing states on the decision to run with Tim Walz.

You can’t blame losing the popular vote and all seven swing states on the New York Times and its occasional Democrat-skeptical opinion pieces.

You can’t blame losing the popular vote and all seven swing states on Joe Biden for getting out of the race too late.

You can’t pull all the usual Democrat tricks. You have to actually figure out what’s wrong with your party, root and branch. Because you called the guy a fascist, again, and he walked right through that insult to the Oval Office, again. And the eternal question presents itself: what are you going to do about it?

The Senders stumble into the Terror Dome

By

On October 1, 2024

Comments

Soundtrack for this post.

William S. Burroughs postulated four political parties in his 1959 novel Naked Lunch: Liquefactionists, Senders, Divisionists, and Factualists.

Per Wiki:

The city is contested by four rival political parties: Liquefactionists, who want to merge everyone into one protoplasmic entity; Senders, who want to control everyone else through telepathy; Divisionists, who subdivide into replicas of themselves; and Factualists, who oppose the other three.

The Senders are a metaphor for mass media propaganda as practiced by Edward Bernays, Leon Trotsky, Joseph Goebbels, and American political consultants.

The Democrats and their allied Never Trumper Republicans are the heirs to this legacy.

The rise of the Internet, then the World Wide Web, and finally social media initially threw them for a loop and played a role in Trump taking over the G.O.P.

Their reaction was to impose a surveillance and censorship regime using the tech monopolies as bottlenecks:

Essentially the Biden administration’s communications policy has been to relentlessly and flagrantly spin, distort, lie

Unfortunately, combining surveillance and censorship with slick media campaigns using the power of celebrity to encourage supporters to form parasocial bonds with politicians is way too much power for anyone to handle.

Because there’s no way not to get high on your own supply.

As YouTuber History Legends said of the Ukrainian war effort:

The propaganda was too strong and too effective.

We have an entire army of NAFO trolls (on) Reddit and Twitter. People that believed 100% everything that was being said by Ukraine.

The Ukrainians will only show their successes to their population as if the Ukrainians are constantly winning.

At the same time we have a million Ukrainian men abroad. We have countless Ukrainian soldiers and enlisted personnel that are not at the front.

We have people in Kiev partying as if there’s no war happening.

The problem for Ukraine is that they haven’t managed to create (a) national feeling of it’s now or never. They always try to portray the war as ‘oh we’re winning. It’s fine.’

So everybody kind of kept their life going because everything is going well at the front but it’s not true and now it’s too late.

The disorientation goes to the top, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s new piece for Foreign Policy illustrates.

The Biden administration’s strategy has put the United States in a much stronger geopolitical position today than it was four years ago. [Really??] But our work is unfinished. The United States must sustain its fortitude across administrations to shake the revisionists’ assumptions. It must be prepared for the revisionist states to deepen cooperation with one another to try to make up the difference. It must maintain its commitments to and the trust of its friends. And it must continue to earn the American people’s confidence in the power, purpose, and value of disciplined American leadership in the world.

Meanwhile, air alerts over Israel:

All of Israel is covered by air alerts

Eyeless in Gaza, indeed.

Ryan Grim tweets:

This is either a complete and total failure to contain the conflict by the Biden administration -- or this is what the White House wanted and it's the most egregious lie told to the public since WMD. Either incompetence or duplicity--no 3rd option. Malevolent in either case.

Incompetence or duplicity? What do we think?

Let’s Talk About Joe Biden

By

On July 3, 2024

Comments

The debate made it clear that Biden is in serious decline. Remember that it’s not just about now, it’s about four years from now. The media has turned on him hard, and so have many in the Democratic party.

My first takeaway from the debate was that Biden if Democrats were honest and honorable, they would have already forced him to step down, using the 25th amendment. Being President is a hard job, and he’s not up to it. The Vice-President exists for a reason.

My second is that a constitutional amendment is needed to prevent anyone over, say, sixty-nine, from running for President.

The third is to ask, who’s been running America? I had thought it was no longer Biden, but what we’re hearing is that it is Biden, and that he’s erratic and angry and doesn’t understand much of what he’s doing. Biden has done some good things as President, mostly thru some good appointments, but when age related decline starts, it often moves fast.

As for what’s going to happen—I have no idea. I don’t much like Harris, among other things when she was a DA she deliberately put people she knew were innocent in prison. But she’s not senile, and Democrats are panicking. If Biden won’t go peacefully, they should twenty-five him, get Kamala a good running mate & pray a lot.

The other option being floated is a “speed primary”, get it done in four to five weeks, but that seems problematic.

Either way, getting rid of GenocideJoe and having a candidate who can distance themselves would be the smart political move. I imagine Trump will still win, but it might not be a complete disaster.

America’s in serious decline and this clusterfuck is just a symptom of the elite’s inability to govern effectively. This problem should have been dealt with before it blew up, but everyone was pretending there was no problem, despite dozens of clips of Biden’s decline making the rounds. The strategy was denial, denial, denial. “The Emperor’s clothes are the most beautiful in the world!”

But Biden himself played the part of the kid “The Emperor has no clothes” and the feeding frenzy has begun. There will be more leaks and bad press, the knives are out for him, because other Democrats think he’s going to take them with him. Just as bad for Biden, Obama, who made Joe President last time by arranging for him to win the primary, seems to have abandoned him. Not sure if the Clinton machine is still onside: Hilary is stupid and might be, if Bill’s making the decisions, they will jump ship

If nothing else, it will be quite the show.

Edit: Harris’s numbers are now trending better than Biden’s.

Addendum 2: One thing about Harris is that she’s less pro-Israeli. To win, Democrats need Muslims. Trump is hardcore pro-Israel. If Kamala became president and pushed back against Netanyahu in some way that matters, she’d get a lot on the left and among Muslims. Heck, if she’s good enough, I’d endorse her (not that my endorsement matters). Always go with the person who isn’t pro-genocide. (I recognize she’ll probably bow to the pro-Israeli lobby.)

Your support makes it possible for me to write, if you like my writing and want more, please SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

The Weird Pro-Biden Messaging

By

On January 17, 2024

Comments

Democrats, Democrats never change.

It’s all, “well yes, Biden is bad, especially that *cough* Gaza thing, but, ummm, Trump will be worse. So hold that nose, crawl up to the cesspit and vote Biden.”

I mean, I’ve always been anti-lesser evil, but is there any line?

We’re talking a full blown genocide, with deliberate starvation of the population. Only one working hospital remains in Gaza and it is under attack as I write this. If you want to, and you have a strong stomach, you can find such fun videos as a father who is a doctor amputating his own daughter’s leg, on his kitchen table, without anaesthetic. (There is no anaesthetic left in Gaza, all surgery is without anaesthic. Welcome to Hell.) Babies died abandoned in incubators and Palestinians running to get food from aid trucks are gunned down by quad-copter drones.

Israel couldn’t do this without the US, which has been in constant bomb and missile airlift mode since it started. Further, the only person who could stop the genocide with a single phone call is Joe Biden.

But sure, vote for him because Trump would be worse. Vote for a genocider.

There will be some commenters, I bet, who say, “but Trump would be worse: he’d support the genocide and do other bad things.”

Possibly true.

“Vote Beelzebub, he is 3% less bad than Satan.”

Let’s explain basic politics in a democracy (the same rules apply in non-democracies, with slight adjustments.)

You have power if you can deliver voters, volunteers or money in sufficient quantities to make a difference, and no one can get those voters, volunteers or dollars without going thru you.

That is it, that is all. If you want to have influence on policy, you must have enough voters/money/volunteers who will only make that difference if they get what they want and who will absolutely work against you if they don’t. Doesn’t matter if it’s single payer or “don’t genocide”. If enough people won’t say “you don’t get what you want from me if I don’t get what I want from you” then you have no power. None.

The right has power because they will absolutely vote against and work against people who cross them and are loyal to those who do what they want. Say what you want about Trump and the right: he gave them the abortion ban they’ve been wanting for generations. He did that. They got what they wanted from him, the single most important thing they wanted.

“Progressives”? No principles. They believe in nothing. There is no red line they will not cross, no slight or betrayal they will not forgive if it is wrapped in a smarmy right wing Democrat’s lying lips.

Fortunately, in this case, there are lot of Muslims in Michigan, a battleground state. And apparently there is a red line for them, “you killed my relatives!!!!!” So there’s a good chance Biden will lose, even if the usual suspects whine that he’s better than Trump, even if he did everything he could to make a genocide happen.

But until there is a voting/giving/volunteering bloc with actual principles which aren’t garbage and which they can’t be cajoled out of with empty promises and lies and “but he’s even worse!”, no one’s getting a better country or world, for that matter.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

The Debt Ceiling Crisis Is Just Politics

By

On May 24, 2023

Comments

So, let’s state what should be obvious.

  1. Republican Presidents since Reagan have all increased the deficit more than Democratic ones.
  2. Republicans have always raised the debt ceiling when Republican presidents are in charge; therefore,
  3. The “debt ceiling crisis” is just partisan politics and has nothing to do with the deficit
  4. Republicans and many Democrats want spending cuts which affect ordinary people, rather than repealing tax cuts or, say, cutting the “defense” budget.
  5. Biden’s record is that he likes the idea of cutting things like social security; so…
  6. A lot of Biden’s “resistance” is Kabuki
  7. The constitutional argument is unclear, but as a practical matter, the Supreme Court cannot enforce a decision which says the debt ceiling is constitutional.
  8. So, ultimately, whether the President decides to obey the debt limit is entirely a political decision, he can easily say that based on the constitution he has no right to do so-he must pay all obligations.
  9. If Biden does ignore a Supreme Court decision it will increase the disintegration of the current political order and set a precedent.

I would note that the idea that the Supreme Court is the final arbiter of constitutional issues was not clear to the founders, and is something the court arrogated to themselves. It is not clear that they should have that power.

As for the rest, Biden will do what he wants to do.

 

Donors and subscribers make it possible for me to write, so if you value this writing, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE

Commentary on Biden’s Speech

By

On April 29, 2021

Comments

Biden’s turning out better than I expected on domestic economic issues, though that isn’t a high bar. This speech (full transcript) is very interesting, though the question of how much he can get through Congress remains. My telegraphic thoughts on reading it.

The IMF predicting six percent growth isn’t that impressive, just because after Covid there was always going to be a boom.

Getting rid of all lead pipes is really good and has needed to be done for decades.

Getting high-speed internet to every home is good. Hope there’s some price controls in there, because the ISPs definitely rip people off (I’ve seen profit numbers as high as 97 percent.) They also need to be sure it actually gets built; money has been given to providers to build before, and they haven’t bothered.

Upgrading the power grid is absolutely necessary. We’ll see what the details are. It needs to be done in a way that forces proper maintainance. PG&E has let literally thousands of fires happen because they’d rather pay dividends than fix their infrastructure.

The green plan is pretty good. Insufficient, but better than anyone else has done. Half a million charge stations, more energy efficient buildings, planting over crops and some industrial policy to create green machinery in the US. Someone has finally got it through their thick skull that most of the jobs required in upgrading buildings and so on can’t be offshored and outsourced, something I and others have been arguing for decades. Happy about this.

Some stuff about $15/minimum. Doubt Manchin will let it through, but if I were Biden, I’d use it as a cudgel for 2022 to get a majority he can use. Really, even $15 is stupid. It should be about $22 and indexed, ideally to the increase in CEO compensation.

A lot more money for research. Excellent.

Universal pre-school. I think it’s a terrible idea, but I know most experts disagree. Have to take the kids from the parents and soon as possible and train them to be obedient workers.

Two years of free community college; give workers slightly better, but non-elite jobs.

Some ACA fixes, none of which will make it good or people not hate it, because insurance companies controlling what you can get and whether it gets paid for is always going to suck.

Allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. See if Congress lets it through, but a good thing.

Top bracket for those earning 400K or more up to 39.6 percent. No way Machin lets this through, but a good market for a start. It should be 90 percent, of course.

The fixes to capital gains are great, and something America (and most other countries) have needed for ages. Taxing capital gains less than income was always ridiculous and unfair.

Lots of red meat rhetoric against CEOs and execs. Nice.

China cold war still on: China must play by American rules, and the US military will stay in the East. (More on this in future pieces, this is important.)

Red meat on Russia. Self congratulation on Afghanistan (earned, but continuing drone bombing it is bad.)

Gun control talk: wants the loopholes closed and background checks on everyone (I doubt this can get past Congress. If it does, the Supremes will veto it.)

Immigration: don’t blame me, I sent a bill and Congress won’t pass it. Also we should help nations where we’re getting a lot of refugees from so they don’t need to flee to  us.

Call back to FDR. They clearly want to make Biden the next FDR. He ain’t that, but domestically he’s the start of the end of neoliberalism, perhaps, and if so, that’s enough and more than I expected. None of this stuff is exactly radical, or sufficient BUT it is a reversal of trend, and that matters.

(Writers need dental care, so subscriptions and donations help.)

The Logic Of Bootlickers Is The Logic Of Too Many Americans

By

On January 21, 2021

Comments

This is sweet and lovely in the purity of its boot-licking authoritarianism:

The account then goes on to insult those who do not worship at the Biden altar.

The authoritarian personality is simple: it slurps up; kicks down. You know the type. You’ve seen them wherever you’ve worked, and you loathe them.

What is true is that Biden, Harris and Pelosi people are good at politics. They are good at seeking and getting political office.

But this is a category error; a profoundly stupid and harmful one.

First, this says nothing about their intelligence. Trump became President, is he smarter than you? (Or, if you’re dumb, smarter than many philosophers, scientists and so on who never earn any political office?)

What about George Bush Jr. smarter than you?

These people are good at getting political office, that doesn’t mean they are good at anything else. Pelosi is good at raising money and intra-caucus politics, but the House Democrats haven’t had a great electoral record while lead by her. She also passed almost all of Trump’s bills, including terrible ones like massive tax cuts and so on. She has renewed the Patriot Act multiple times. She refused to reign in George Bush when she got a majority in 2006.

She may be a good politician, but so what?

Harris did terribly in the primaries. She attacked Joe Biden as a segregationist (he was) and earned the VP slot, as best I can tell, by a campaign of backstabbing all the other possible candidates. She helped keep people known to be innocent in prison when a prosecutor.

Biden, in addition to being a segregationist, was one of the main Democratic boosters of the Iraq war. He was a driving force behind the bankruptcy bill which made it impossible to to discharge student debt. The Patriot Act was based on a bill he tried to pass in the 90s. He threatened Cuba with devastation if they dared give Snowden asylum. He’s apparently a great boss and a loving family man, but he’s filth. He’s also a known plagiarist.

Being able to get political power implies nothing more than an ability to get political power. Becoming rich implies nothing more than an ability to become rich.

Being good at A does not mean you are good at B to Z.

It certainly doesn’t mean your getting political power or money is good for anyone else. In most cases, the rise of most billionaires has been bad for other people. They have made money because they found a way to impoverish other people. Of course, there are exceptions, but they are exceptions.

Grow some self-respect and a spine. Your leaders are only better than you in one sense: they are better predators than you are.

“Oh, I so admire the wolf,” simpered the sheep.

In fact, much of why you aren’t them is because you have morals. You aren’t willing to lock up people who know are innocent, like Kamala. You aren’t willing to destroy a foreign country and kill a million people like Biden. You wouldn’t go along with Trump’s massive tax cuts like Pelosi.

You have some ethics; some morality. You wouldn’t run a huge scheme to defraud millions of people and/or steal their homes like almost everyone senior on Wall Street. There are limits on the evil you are willing to do for money or power, and that means, in America, you can’t have either.

Whenever someone who has ethics gets anywhere near power, (Corbyn or Sanders) everything possible is done to destroy them. The media lied over 75% about Corbyn. Every single candidate dropped out in a period of a day to deny Sanders the Democratic nomination; an effort coordinated by Obama (who may well be smarter than you, and whose evil was carefully concealed behind his smiling sociopathy.)

The elites have spent the last 50 or so years driving 97% of Americans into the dirt, and rewarding themselves with billions. They are predators, and nothing else. You are the sheep, and the cops and military are the sheepdogs: still animals, and discarded the moment they aren’t useful. (Check those military veteran homeless stats.)

Biden, Harris and Pelosi (who cares about Carville?) aren’t smarter than you, odds are, and unless you’re Stalin reborn, they’re worse people than you in every way except their ability to get and hold power and use it against the American people and foreigners.

Hopefully they’ll be less evil rulers than Trump (though note, he didn’t start any new wars), but that’s not a bar.

Have some self respect. Your system elects not the best of you, but the worst.

Thinking the worst are the best: that’s the problem. They’ve indoctrinated you like farm animals “they feed us, and I’m sure the beating are because they love us, and I’m sure when they loaded Thelma and Fred and George on the truck last week and they never came back, well they were taking them to a better place.”

Except you don’t even get that good a deal, since they’re happy to see you starve and don’t try and heal you when you’re sick.

Grow up.

These people feed on you, and that’s all you are to them.

All the content here is free, but subscriptions and donations do help, a lot.

 

 

50 State Protests Fizzle + Biden

By

On January 20, 2021

Comments

The plan was to have right wing protests at all 50 states. I thought that would likely happen, but it has fizzled: almost no one showed up.

I’m not sure if this is due to the disruption of the communication system between right wing activists, or if their will has been broken.

The fizzling is good news. I still see the conditions for a right wing insurrection, but I’d love to be wrong and I’m happy to be wrong about the 50 state protests.

Just as important, perhaps this will convince Biden and Democrats not to do a Patriot Act II: because whether the right has it in them or not, left-wing demonstrations do continue.

As for Biden, he’s stopping the Keystone XL pipeline (the right thing to do, which I say as a Canadian, and Trudeau was a fool to throw good money after bad on it.) Biden is also due to rejoin the Paris agreement. The Paris agreement has always been bullshit, no major nation has come even close to meeting its agreed goals, but Biden does seem serious about the environment, so we can hope for some improvements in US policy.

He’s also, apparently, going to get rid of the border wall, though that’s more show than meaningful. (Plenty of miles of border wall was built before Trump.)

The original optimism on anti-trust has faded, given Biden’s appointments.

As for Trump, it appears he’s going to be made an example of by being driven into real bankruptcy. The bank securing his loans has said they will no longer do business with him. He embarrassed his fellow elites, then he tried for an extremely incompetent coup and made them feel scared. They won’t forgive him for this. As with Martin Skrelli, you can hurt the hoi polloi all you want, but there’s a certain style required.

The next four years, I am quite sure, will be very unpleasant, and not particularly better than the last four years. Biden will be worse for many foreign nations than Trump was (and better for a few, like Iran.)

In the meantime, congratulation to the winner, and to Harris, who won nothing but whose machinations carried her next to the Presidency and who stands a good chance of being President, even before 2024.

Update: The NYTimes has a list of Biden’s first executive actions.

All the content here is free, but subscriptions and donations do help, a lot.

Page 1 of 2

Next

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén