Paragraph 1: (end military ops including in Lebanon: this is the one that may blow it up.)
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this M.O.U. declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain [from] the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
Paragraph 2:
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
Paragraph 3: (This ain’t final, more to negotiate.)
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.
Paragraph 4: (Immediate end of US blockade, Iran has 30 days. US to remove forces.)
Immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
Paragraph 5: (no charge for passage thru the strait. At least for 60 days, I suspect Iran/Oman will try and have charges after that.)
Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
Paragraph 6: (US pays 300 billion in restitution. This is why Iran agreed to no fees for passage, at least for now.)
The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
Paragraph 7: (End of sanctions.)
The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
Paragraph 8: (No nukes for Iran. Downblending in Iran under IAEA supervision.)
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on the statutory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
Paragraph 9: (No new sanctions, no new nuclear program.)
Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
Paragraph 10: (Again, end of sanctions: this time for oil products.)
The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
Paragraph 11: (Release of all frozen funds.)
The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
Paragraph 12:
The United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this M.O.U. and the future compliance of the final deal.
Paragraph 13: (Negotiation not over yet.)
After signing this M.O.U. and subject to the beginning of the implementation of Paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this M.O.U., and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
Paragraph 14:
The final deal will be endorsed by a binding U.N.S.C. resolution.
Commentary:
This is a decisive victory for Iran and a loss for Israel and America, though I’d argue that the US ending sanctions and military efforts in the Middle East is good for America. Still, there’s no question that this is the sort of deal that gets signed when one side (Iran) won and the other side (Israel and the US) lost.
I mean — 300 billion in reparations. The US end their blockade first. The US says it’ll get move forces out of the region. The US ends pretty much all sanctions and gives Iran back their money.
Massive win for Iran. Iran is now a great power in the region, and no one can deny it.
The obvious problem here is Israel. If Iran is serious about an end to violence in Lebanon, then this will wind up as a dead letter unless the US tightens Israel’s leash (which it can do, Israel is entirely dependent on US aid). Alternative the US could simply shrug, and make the deal only between them and Iran, and say “if Israel wants to keep fighting, it’s on its own.)
The question here is the power of the domestic lobby, and whether or not Israel has enough blackmail on Trump. (Signing this deal at all makes it look like the answer to #2, which I thought was “absolutely” may well be “nope, not enough.” We’ll see.)
The US is no longer a superpower. The world no longer has any superpowers. It’s still a great power with worldwide reach, but the days where it was the world’s “super cop” are over. It can still push around weak nations, but not strong regional powers. Took a little less than 30 years from the fall of the USSR for American elites to screw up a completely dominant position.
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This is a decisive victory for Iran and a loss for Israel and America …
No, it’s not. It’s not worth the bits and bytes it’s encoded upon. It’s impossible to strike a deal with Donald Trump. We know this. This is no deal. There is no deal. Instead, what it shows is, the enemy of our enemy is not our friend — once again. It shows Iran is completely unprincipled, that it has zero conviction and, like every other ruling class regime on the planet, is an opportunist, principles be damned. I mean, America is the Great Satan, right? Never to be trusted, right? Yet here is Iran’s ruling elite dancing with the greatest devil of all time — America the Great Satan. I was neutral on Iran prior to this so-called “deal”, but now, like with Russia and Ukraine too with Zelenskyy continually groveling at Trump’s feet, I now see Iran as I see Israel and Russia and Ukraine, an enemy precisely because Iran by feigning to do a “deal” with one of the most disgusting, despicable creatures to ever walk the planet, has legitimated him and platformed him. Anyone or any regime that legitimates Donald Trump is my enemy and an enemy of the people and by people, I mean decent, ordinary people everywhere.
sbt42
Prima facie, it’s clear that the US was spanked. It does appear however that this isn’t so much Iran telling the US what to do, as it is forcing Israel to look more like the clear bad guy, and the US to look more like its servant.
If the US reneges at all on the terms of this arrangement, then it’s clear they’re being forced to do so by a third party. And the elephant in the room is that everyone already knows the identity of that third party. This would just make it obvious to whomever will author the history books.
I think I have to disagree with L&S above, because I think Iran is attempting to play the US as opposed to kowtow to it.
cc
Really do hope that the US actually stops attacking Iran, assassinating its leaders, and dropping bombs, releases funds/ships it seized, pays restitution for the destruction and killing, ends sanctions, and leaves the region.
But history shows that the US is not at all trustworthy, and Oliver Hua (Hua Bin) drew an interesting comparison to the years-long “negotiations” process to finally get the US to respect an armistice in the US war on Korea:
Excerpt:
“The armistice negotiations were extraordinarily prolonged, lasting two years and seventeen days, or roughly 747 days, from July 10, 1951, to July 27, 1953.
Premier Zhou Enlai once summarized this period: “We fought for three years in Korea and negotiated for two.”
The negotiation process was fraught with interruptions. Talks were suspended for 63 days when the American side bombed the Chinese and North Korean delegation’s quarters in August 1951.
Trying to kill the other side’s negotiators is not an Israeli invention.”
Lessons for Iran from the Korean War
The “forgotten war” in the 1950s is a blueprint for Iran
https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/lessons-for-iran-from-the-korean
elkern
Best news I’ve seen in a while!
Of course Israel will try hard to screw it up, by continuing attacks in Lebanon, yanking leashes on US politicians, and possibly far shadier methods – but each such step accelerates the decline of AIPAC control (yay!).
I share Ian’s surprise about Trump’s willingness to risk defying Bibi; it implies that the Epstein Tapes may include some embarrassing clips of Trump (say, with 15-17 yo girls) but nothing truly shocking (no 9 yo boys). Trump is not an “honest politician” – he doesn’t stay bought – (unlike Biden!), and in this case, that’s a Good Thing. Mossad may go for a “JFK solution” (pinning it on some queer brown BDS patsy?), but they’d have to take out Vance first, so the risks are squared. Hmm, watch for “Impeach Vance” moves from AIPAC Dems?
Liberal Dems are howling mad about how bad this deal is; they’re not exactly “wrong” about that, but they keep ignoring the real problems: WE started this (at Israel’s behest), and at this point, the only alternatives to a deal like this would be to invasion or nukes.
There will be more subtle resistance, too. Neocon moles have been burrowing into the US bureaucracy for a couple decades now, including the Treasury Dept, which controls the levers on Sanctions; they will slow-walk any concessions to Iran. The Pentagon will haggle about which bases to close; they may be glad to get out of Iraq but not the UAE.
Congress will never appropriate the $300B in Reparations, but Iran will be able to squeeze some of that out of the GCC, and China might help with some low-interest loans.
Bonus: likely net positive effect on US mid-term elections, by wrecking MAGA and shining light on AIPAC.
Of course, the most important Good Thing is relief for a billion poor people whose food supply would have been threatened by continued closure of the Straits.
spud
this gives the oligarchs and the zionists more time to try to get around irans missile advantage.
it surely is a embarrassment to the trading empire, that’s for sure. but i am betting the plotting is already started for the next round.
this is only temporary to them.
north korea knew better. north korea learned a valuable lesson from yugoslavia.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/1606912/a-clinton-war-crime-20-years-later/
A Clinton war crime, 20 years later
By Tiana Lowe Doescher
Published June 11, 2019 6:26pm ET
Twenty years ago today, ash settled over Serbia, then a republic of Yugoslavia, in the wake of more than two months of continued bombings by NATO. The campaign had been initiated by President Bill Clinton. NATO acted without the authorization of the United Nations. Its states justified what they called “Operation Noble Anvil” as a humanitarian operation to respond to the Kosovo War.
Of all the atrocities levied by the Clintons, perhaps none is more unjustified, brutal, and lasting as his Serbian legacy.
…
Mark Level
I appreciate Ian’s judicious restraint in not doing any previous posts on this, and I think as usual Ian’s take is very solid, despite the Troll who had to immediately trash it with his State Dept./NED talking points. LAS doesn’t get paid like Rachel Maddow, say, does it purely for love of the game, hating 94% of the world’s populace, US makes up 4% of the world’s population or a smidge above that, never could’ve been the Permanent Hegemon forever.
Could’ve lasted longer but for deliberate Deindustrialization, Clinton’s shipping the Industry to Mexico (while destroying their economy, corn crops etc, shitty maquiladora jobs, people live outside in the boxes that have been emptied), & Ghina, early-on they had to put Nets outside the Apple phone factories, workers throwing themselves out windows to their deaths, but then created a middle class, as happened in the US once Unions got powerful and could do some pushback.
Pascal Lotez does good coverage in line, mostly, with Ian’s at his Neutrality Studies site, see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o6eOhj3vGQ
So I’ll reply to LAS first, then continue with a reality-based community take of my own.
First 3 lines up to . . .”no deal”; half-true, not bad for the source. It seems to assume facts not in evidence, however, that the Iranians are morons and don’t know Trump can’t be trusted. Absurd.
“Iran is unprincipled, that it has zero conviction, . . .is an opportunist, principles be damned.” Blinkered and wrong. I happened to be emailing with my retired “bourgeois” (yes he is, wouldn’t be ashamed of it, his life his choice) Iranian-American friend, he did say that he considers it an “extremist, fundamentalist regime”, he visits every couple of years with the wife, wouldn’t lie that women forced to wear Burkas or the head-covering (except in very conservative, mostly rural areas, US has the South where women treated like shit, cultures that are backward share features.) He doesn’t hate the majority of Iranians, he wouldn’t want the Shah back. A secular person, like me he doesn’t think highly of organized religion. (My opinion there is Marxist-adjacent, “opium of the people.”) We have a mutual friend, had in my case, he became a Trump CHUD out of hatred of Hillary, I ended all contact with him when he emailed me that because he is a “Feminist” (awfully “Woke” I would say; despite my take on KT Chong I am against the majority of Woke bullshit, especially scum like Ibraham X. Kendi, Dimmie Gerontocrats wearing Kenti Cloth and “taking a knee”, those who are capable of doing so, a few. I will dilate on this later, elsewhere) he believed that Iranians “throw gay people off skyscrapers”, murder women who are promiscuous without trial, just mindless CHUD slop. This guy used to say that “Dominion Software stole the 2020 election from Trump.” When I board-gamed with him and other friends, years ago, I told him once Dominion won the lawsuit proving that false, that if he ever repeated that idiotic lie in my presence I’d stop gaming with him (not the rest of the group). He valued my company enough to desist.
I have 4 words for LAS: Professor Sayed Mohammed Mirandi. A man who volunteered and fought and was hit with poison gas twice, when our former Strongman Sadaam was given poison gas by the USA, Rumsfeld, and Germany of course as well. A man of great integrity, wisdom, I don’t agree with him on everything (specifically he has every right to revere the late Ayatollah Khamenei, my view is closer to Ian’s expressed previously.) But in the rear-view mirror, Khamenei did, despite his stupid passivity about not getting Nukes, principled stand, set the “regime” (sic) up to win as they now have, mostly. (Always gotta put qualifiers in there, Everybody Knows US regime is “agreement incapable.”)
Will not even engage with LAS’s garbled “Enemy of my Enemy is my Frenemy” distraction, doesn’t matter, meaningless, his take wrong regardless.
“America is the Great Satan.” Obviously, alongside its Zionist Master, blind pig, savor the acorn.
“Zelensky groveling before Trump’s feet,” that’s gotta hurt, huh? As Slick Willie would say, “I feel yo’ pain,” but I can’t say that with any sincerity. At least your eyes are opening, do you see some light outside of Plato’s cave? Good on you.
So the Iranian’s shouldn’t make a deal in your eyes? Okay, fine, but they know what’s best for them. Listening to the Duran right now while typing, Alex’s take, “Trump had no choice” is correct. They also know US Agreement Incapable. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXe–nzWPgI
LikeandSubscribe believes Iran shouldn’t take the $24-$48 billion in stolen assets back, take the “principled” stand and suffer. Dumb. That’s what Ian faulted Khamenei for viz nukes. They killed the weaker leadership, now smarter folks, IRGC in charge.
End to response to LAS. Now, JD Vance (the one genuinely intelligent, though totally evil like the rest, person in the Trump retinue) has long been foreshadowing the humiliation that Obama created the phony JCPOA, “weakly” say the CHUDs, returned a paltry $2 billion of the stolen assets. The feint used by Vance, it is the GCC, Gulf Cooperation Council, that will pay the “reparations”, LOL!! Meaning US will hand the first $24 billion over to Qatar and UAE, they will “pay” it back to Iran, like a bribe not to have their desalination plants and oil refineries obliterated. (Which Iran could do, would prefer not to.)
I agree now with Mercouris, Trump with the MOU knows he has lost, is walking away from his vomit and pretending it never happened, not going to go eat it like the dog in the Old Testament. But Duran is correct, don’t trust USA, use leverage, don’t concede temporarily as Putin did with Minsk 2 proposals, know your enemy will strike the moment you let your guard down. But as Alex says, Iran has “won the round,” there are other rounds coming, they won’t make Putin’s lawyerly error. No trust whatsoever.
In closing, Ian’s point that #2, the Zionist AshkeNazi Apartheid won’t comply, will keep slaughtering the Lebanese and leveling their homes, eliminating and burning down, murdering the Christian communities in the West Bank, have killed more Gazans now by a factor of 3 or more during the “Cease Fire” (there is no word for Cease Fire to the Zionist entity) than Israelis who died (at least 1/3- 1/4 killed by their own military) on Oct. 7,2023.
Battling that will be between Iran, now a “regional superpower” (correctly says the Duran) alongside the Yemenis, Hezbollah, etc. Israel is overstretched fighting on 7 or 8 fronts, their own miltary command has admitted as much, doesn’t matter. Iran has until now utilized only 20%+ of their Missiles and Ordnance, the stronger stuff will come raining down on Tel Aviv, etc. if Bibi and company keeps hitting their neighbors.
Bibi and Trump have alienated affections? I wouldn’t buy that one. Trump did publicly state to Bibi, “The whole world hates you” (the Zionist Entity, and Bibi as well, obviously), rare truth-telling. I put the odds at over 90% that to gain leverage, the ZE will release the pics of Donald with partially-clad teens. Will anyone except the stupidest CHUDs feel surprised or betrayed? Methinks not.
Oh, another snack from the Duran– Trump so stupid he signed the Capitulation in Versailles!!! Gotta snicker at that brain fart. Macron was there, knew how stupid that was historically, deferred to Daddy. Oh well. You can’t fix stupid.
I agree with Due Dissidence, IF/ when Bibi or whomever releases the Epstein files, the World would forgive DJT if he stopped their genocides. He won’t though, he’s not really in charge, and was so only briefly early in this term. The fat, en retard Orangutan is a liablility to the R’s now, he will be eased out, sooner or later. Due Dissidence’s Keaton said no way will DJT serve (sic) out a full term, that’ll be true.
Iran will continue to escalate as needed, the sick dream of exterminating a 5+ Millenia old Civilization died in its crib. US the “Pitiful, Helpless Giant” that Nixon feared in the 1970s, character is destiny.
60/40 odds US Empire now neutered in the “Middle East”/ Levant forever, will have to come home and bully Cuba, Greenland, Canada, etc. Failure all the way down, just like turtles. Little Marco’s dream of a renewed 1492, white Garden of Joe Borrell enslaves the savage, brown Jungle a fail. Not gonna happen, but they can turn Cuba back into a Gangster-run “Paradise” for gringos, cheap whores, poverty and misery. ReThugs will love that, no Dimmiecraps, including AOC, will even lift a finger to prevent that.
McKinley Salad days all over? Or a Civil War first? It won’t end well for US populace until they revolt, don’t see that in the next 2-4 years, might get there eventually, but I’m hoping to escape first.
ventzu
It is a win for Iran, but as you have previously noted, the US can throw it out during actual negotiations. It is hard to believe Trump will stick to this MoU, esp given the backlash.
The risk for Iran is if this re-starts in a couple of months time the Iranian people will be fatigued and have lost the stomache for a restart, and to go through a blockade again. Whereas now they are all-in to finish this off.
GrimJim
Iran knows that Trump will never honor a deal. He is the personification of the US’s inability to honor any treaty save in the breach.
They also know that Israel will never stop attacking Lebanon as long as it exists.
So they know this is a non deal.
Thus just gives them a breather while also helping the West cut its own throats.
You think the crash was going to be bad before, with the war slowly draining reserves till things blew, just wait till you see how parabolic it goes when this “deal” falls through when everyone partied like the war was over…
different clue
There are coatholders outside Iran who would like to “fight the power” to the last Iranian. Iran owes them nothing . . . not entertainment, nor validation, nor anything else.
The IranGov will do what the IranGov does. No foreigners are going to come rescue us CounterTrumpers from the evil Trump. It would be nice if they would, but they won’t. We will have to counter the Triple Nazi Revolution Regime in this country as best as we can all on our own. That might begin by recognizing that the KlanMAGAs, the Christianazians and the Silicon TechBros are the Revolutionaries here. Then we can accept that we have to be CounterRevolutionaries, if we can be. We can’t even begin to have a hope of tearing down and destroying the Triple Nazi Coalition Revolution if we won’t even admit to the fact of what we are facing here.
The Persians invented chess. The present day IranGov is staffed by people who descend from that Persian Civilization background, even if they may hate many pre-Islamic aspects of that Civilization. The IranGov may be smart enough to play a long game which we are not even smart enough to see.
GrimJim
Holy crap, just noticed Trump signed the MOU at Versailles.
Now it is also cursed…
Forecasting Intelligence
Where is this 300 billion coming from?
This so-called “deal” is a page and a half long and is nothing of the sort.
Smokes and mirrors! I could go further into it but can’t be bothered.
Old Jake
Israel has stuff on Trump. So they can torque him into supporting whatever they want. Until he goes so far off the deep end that his party is defeated, and perhaps he is impeached and removed. Which leaves Israel where? Oh, but he’s not the only one they have stuff on, is he? Cut off one head, two more take its place.
Emotionally I’d like to see Israel removed from the map. Method to be determined. Rationally I think any actions that would accomplish that would have unforeseen (or maybe predictable, as humans are) effects.
StewartM
The question here is the power of the domestic lobby, and whether or not Israel has enough blackmail on Trump. (Signing this deal at all makes it look like the answer to #2, which I thought was “absolutely” may well be “nope, not enough.” We’ll see.)
Echoing L&S, and thinking of a Quora answer explaining by a New Yorker about Trump stiffing those who did work for him and his properties, often driving them into bankruptcy, and recounting how a contractor who had been warned about working for Trump had responded “Nothing to worry about, we got our lawyers draft it and everything’s all in writing and legal”. Guess what? They were stiffed by Trump and driven into bankruptcy, all that notwithstanding.
The only thing that would make me concede that “Operation Epic Clusterfuck” wasn’t due to Epstein blackmail is for Trump to actually rein in Israel, and really do it rather than say he’s doing it while shipments continue. You’re absolutely right, Trump (or any other US president) has the power to shut it down. The only thing left for Bibi is to go the “Samson Option”, but that would make Israel uninhabitable for years.
We have credible testimony that Trump’s name is all over those file. We have women coming forward saying “yep, he was involved” in sex with underaged girls. Trump *personally* intervened on the congressional vote, calling MTG and other Republican congresscritters who were voting to release the files, telling them not to vote for release.
So who’s Trump trying to protect? Bill Gates? Prince Harry? Noam Chomsky? Trump doesn’t give a flying f**k about any of those. In fact, he doesn’t give a flying f**k about anyone but himself, including probably his family members. Classic sociopath.
Planter of Trees
If Iran pushed the standoff until the U.S. hit the oil cliff, it would also cause catastrophic damage to their East Asian customers, who would hardly thank them. The Chinese government among others certainly pushed for Iran to reach an accommodation, however temporary. If the U.S. is still game, look for a resumption of hostilities after midterms.
Speaking of midterms, that’s another reason for the Iranians to cool things off: they have done well against a U.S. executive run by the Trump syndicate. The Dems are not any friendlier to Iran, and they don’t go around torpedoing strategic alliances to stunt for a know-nothing domestic audience.
The Iranians are under no obligation to clean up our mess for us.
mago
Ain’t gonna fly in Kokomo, no no no
Trouble on the left trouble on the right and there ain’t no in between
Diplomacy’s a fantasy, whatcha gonna talk about with a couple of Jewish real estate dudes and an evangel?
It’s a pity it’s a shame to kill a people and their animals and destroy their fields and homes
Gotta be some envy and jealousy in there beyond a water resource grab
Lebanese food is better than any kosher meal your best chef could conjure up Ben Givir, so just eat shit and die.
Btw, although I promised and posted in a thread here yesterday that I took a vow to refrain from voicing my opinions, I lied. Maybe that qualifies me for some kind of political office. (Actually I was once offered to run for a County Commissioner seat which I wisely declined.) ciao for now.
NGG
My Take — Somehow Trump has finally faced reality. I think it is telling that he did not want to be the next Herbert Hoover. Continuing this standoff would have resulted in a world-wide depression. Now the U.S. is only facing a recession. The GCC countries now realize that U.S. bases only make them targets — the U.S cannot protect them. This war and the U.S. failure to defeat Iran – which was a stupid idea in the first place – has changed the entire world order. The U.S. withdrawal from the ME – in the long run will be a good thing – let those countries figure it out. And Israel — needs to stop the territorial land grabs,and find a way to finally work with their neighbors. If they don’t – they will face difficult times. Watch and see. Reality is difficult to face.
Mark Level
So I need to add a few new “orts & scraps” (as Yves of NC says) to my earlier commentary. This was a day to news-binge, as we would all expect, things are moving fast, a Century in days to quote something (possibly wrongly) attributed to Lenin.
Sbt42 joins me in calling bullshit on LAS. He’s reliably wrong on here, that’s been his history. Thought I was a Marxist when I am an Anti-Authoritarian, Anarchist when younger. (My dad was a fascist, loved Nixon and hated blacks and hippies when I was a teen. Hippies were already past their expiration date, I became a punk in ’77. My converting to Anarchism was reflexive, but a good choice in the long run.)
cc, thanks for your usual erudition, I was unaware of the granular level you share, obviously the Zios learned their perfidy from someone, who better than biggest bully on the block?
spud, 100% as usual. I had a friend who was slightly more politically sophisticated than me when the Germans and other Euro-slugs set up their Serbs vs. Croats vs. Bosniaks divide and conquer to destroy one of the last actually Marxist, populist governments surviving in the area. My friend warned me directly, this “humanitarian” intervention sham will be used to start dozens of new Regime change wars. Even I was propagandized enough to believe that only Ratko Mladic and the Serbs, Milosevic, were commiting tribal atrocities in the set-up war early on, only learned of Michael Parenti’s smart take 3 or so years later. When Clintons bombed the Chinese embassy, killing hundreds of their staff, I was appalled.
I think it was Judge Nap and Max Blumenthal who covered that the DimmieCraps are outraged that Trump has now reset to his “anti-War” feint that put him in office in 2017. They’d like to keep killing the Brown People. Not so much out of genuine bloodlust, but just to be anti-Trump, & for their War stocks profits. They are outraged, we’re abandoning Israel, we love our AIPAC $$$!! Beyond that it’s like what DC shares, if Donnie makes the first actually good call (forced by his advisers, doesn’t want to be blamed with Israel for a worldwide Depression, starvation etc.) in his entire 2nd admin, they can’t have that!!
But there was one stunning exception!! “We came, we saw, he died!” Hillary cackled over lying to Qadafi and murdering him with a bayonet up his ass, but she actually sympathized with Donald!! She shared a story from the time Ehud Barack was in power, said “Our planes are on the tarmac”, demanded the US join in, Bill and Hill demurred. This must be the first time I have ever said something positive about that Power Couple, but Hillary didn’t like the pipsqueak Zionist state ordering them around. And Trump’s equally arrogant, old golf buddy with Bill and Bloomberg, birds of a feather.
Diff Clue makes one more very solid good point, Marandi and others have shared that large groups of Iranians ARE demonstrating on the street against any settlement with the Great Satan. This doesn’t mean LAS correct, it just means that unlike the DimmieCraps in USA, the Left in Iran actually has political power and influence, will not allow the country to look weak or not be prepared for the expected stab in the back. Wise. Also good point about chess, DC.
Old Jake, agree with your preference. That said, who is the weaker man? Trump, or Bibi? Both weak and cowardly, Bibi has way more racist, genocidal bloodlust, Trump a little queasy about mass-murder and speaking to the parents of dead soldiers in term 1, also “I prefer pilots who don’t get shot down.”
Trump heads the Big, dying Hegemon. All the actual power is in his hands, or those that control him. But those who control him are universally Zio’ed up, so we’ll see. If Bibi or his extremist replacement (from the Left or Right) prevails, there will be worldwide famine, mass die-off of humans, US and Israel will take all the blame. It’s a real crap shoot though (almost literally crap).
Listening to Due Dissidences’ take on Trump’s hilarious presser, a full hour of self-praise while Howard Lutnik laughs along like Ed McMahon, and little Marco seethes behind him with tight-lipped rage. The best line against Trump was from Steve Doocy, asked him “Who said in 2020 that people in the US demanding the destruction of Iran even though Iran has never attacked anyone?” It was the great man, Donald himself of course!! Donald didn’t appreciate the little jape at his expense, said to Steve just before his departure, “Well Steve, you really shot your wad didn’t you?”
More entertainment tomorrow, as Daddy says, his administrations are always “Great TV,” ever since NBC made him a viable presidential candidate back in the 2010s with The Apprentice.
elkern
NPR headlines (10 PM US Eastern) reported that Vance postponed or cancelled plans to fly to Switzerland (on Friday?) for “logistics” reasons, which set my tinfoil hat spinning.
Vance is Trump’s insurance against being removed by pro-war fiends; and Vance is smart enough to know that puts him in danger. Bizarrely, Pakistan might be a safer place for Vance to meet with Iranians than Switzerland…
Carborundum
The notion is that the Gulfies and East Asia will fund the bulk of the $300 billion.
The thing that makes this a strategic wound* of the highest order isn’t anything mentioned here. It’s the stark demonstration that the US—supposed guarantor of global security—will come to your globally strategic neighbourhood, make the security situation significantly worse for you, *maybe* marginally better for itself, and then fuck off over the horizon and demand that you pay for the privilege. We’ve seen this before at the regional level with peripheral “allies”, but this is global and affects everyone. All the while with its navel gazing populace and leadership not even noticing the gaping self inflicted wound to its credibility or the contempt with which the rest of us are increasingly viewing its “citizens”.**
I remember saying 20 years ago that the US was going to have difficulty when the world went back to multipolar norms; I didn’t expect that it was going to attempt to cling to unipolarity by deliberately shearing off all its friends to create unipolar theatre.
* Let’s be clear, this isn’t some sort of Iranian military masterstroke. This is self-inflicted.
** This is a significant difference – while dislike of American policy has been common among aligned populaces, dislike of Americans as people has been less so, but will become more and more common as more and more of us realize that the only thing that will stop this bullshit is the American people, but they either don’t have the stones to do so or actually like fucking the rest of us over. Hope you like being fucked back.