The math is simple. If Iran keeps firing, and the US/Israel does not take out the launchers and missile stockpiles in large numbers, Iran will run the US and Israel (it has its own variants, but the same supply issues) out of interceptors. At that point Iran hits everything it shoots at.
If Iran just keeps going long enough, it WILL win the war. The main danger is Iran’s leaders accepting a cease-fire too soon.
Well, confirmation from within the government:
“The U.S. is planning for a wider war,” said one U.S. official familiar with internal administration discussions, adding that the Pentagon was increasing the number of military aircraft in the region.But the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, cautioned that the expansion of U.S. operations will be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions and constraints on the ability to surge more troops and aircraft into the area because of battle damage.“We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” the official said.
You will notice that I said the main mistake the Iranians could make was going to peace too soon. At least militarily speaking, there were diplomatic reasons to do so, since both Pakistan and China wanted a peace deal, and Pakistan has a defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Iran needed to prove that they had made all possible efforts, to continue receiving the support they need from China and to keep Pakistan out of the war.
There were also significant internal political reasons. What most people don’t understand is that the supreme leader almost never over-rides government consensus. Elijah Manjier is reliable on this (part behind a paywall). He has a lot of contacts in Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.
The Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei, never trusted the Memorandum of Understanding negotiated with Washington that was too good to be true. From the outset, he reportedly expressed reservations about American real and honest intentions and questioned whether the United States would ultimately implement its commitments. Nevertheless, despite his scepticism, he did not impose his personal assessment on the country’s political institutions or prevent the agreement from proceeding once it had secured substantial institutional support equivalent to the majority of the National Security Council voting.
In doing so, Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly followed the political approach adopted by his assassinated father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the negotiations that produced the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Although the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei repeatedly warned that the United States could not be fully trusted, he allowed President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the majority supporting them within the Supreme National Security Council to pursue the nuclear agreement because they believed diplomacy remained preferable to confrontation.
This position reflected a broader principle within Iran’s strategic decision-making system. The Leader establishes the general direction of national policy, but crucial security decisions are debated within institutions that include officials elected directly or indirectly by the population and their representatives, among them the president, the parliamentary speaker and senior government and military representatives. When a substantial institutional majority supports a particular course, the Leader permitted that collective judgement to be tested, even where it conflicts with his personal assessment of the risks involved.
However, the MOU’s failure strengthens those in the government who thought it was a waste of time.
The damage extends beyond the current political leadership. Future Iranian governments, regardless of their ideological orientation, will judge the risks of dealing with Washington against the combined experiences of the JCPOA and the more recent Memorandum. Even officials inclined towards negotiation may conclude that engagement carries prohibitive domestic costs unless future arrangements include enforceable guarantees, simultaneous implementation and mechanisms preventing one party from receiving concessions before abandoning its own obligations…
…Yet diplomatic options have not disappeared completely. The Memorandum itself showed that both sides remain capable of negotiating when the military, political and economic costs become sufficiently high. Any renewed process, however, would require a substantially different structure based on reciprocal implementation, verifiable sequencing, the release of assets alongside measurable Iranian steps, and guarantees sufficiently credible to survive political change in Washington or Tehran.
Manjier’s connected. I’d assume the last paragraph reflects what the Iranian government wants said about any possible new agreement.
Meanwhile in the war itself the Iranians are concentrating on taking out US bases, radars, supply depots, command/communications centers and so on. They’re systematically degrading the infrastructure the US uses. Note that they have started attacking in Jordan, which they had rarely done before. Jordan could be considered the “last shield” before Israel, and Israel’s basing of US assets is the next big goal, I suspect.
It seems clear that Iran is taking apart US logistics and command and control, and depleting weapon stocks faster than the US is doing this to Iran.
Again, the simple math.
Anything can happen in war, but I don’t see any way for the US to win this war if Iran stays the course, and we haven’t even included all the shortages coming down the line, especially now Ansar-Allah has closed another strait. The only people with serious leverage over Iran are China and Pakistan (and Pakistan’s is limited. There’s a deal, but they’d have mass riots if they tried to attack Iran. Pakistan’s population support for Iran polls around 80%.)
If America were even marginally competently run this would be the point where Congress would impeach Trump. He won’t admit defeat and oil stockpiles are running low. He has no viable part to victory, but keeps acting as if he does. He’s turning a military defeat into an economic catastrophe thru his delusional disconnect from reality, or perhaps because he’s being blackmailed. Whatever the reason for his behaviour, he needs to go. (Yes, I’m aware this won’t happen, that’s the point.)
In all my life, and I’m getting old now, I have never seen a stupider war or an American elite more determinedly detached from reality.
What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.
x
spud
you would think of what the russians went through, minsk twice, plus more. it would have opened some eyes. but its not even opened enough eyes in the russian leadership, let alone other countries, except north korea so far.
the smell and thrill of being admitted into the davos elite, is just to strong for many to over come.
the elite are so so so far away from the average americans, and that elitism stretches all the way down to local levels, try talking at a town council, or a cop, and see where it gets you.
this is who the elites will listen to,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z14zDbdyfu0
Elon Musk Loses BIG In SpaceX Stock Crash As Alarming Congress Purchases Revealed
Elon Musk loses massively as his company SpaceX’s stock continues to crater while alarms sound over congress members buying up the stock and what that would mean for future government decisions or contracts for the company. John Iadarola and Yasmin Kahn break it down on The Damage Report. Leave a comment with your thoughts below!
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musk must have watched robinson crusoe on mars, when he first spoke about living on mars and mining, it clicked with me. i saw it on the big screen when i was a kid. of course i knew it was a fantasy, just like star trek and star wars. but people who are elites, might take it seriously, looks like he did. and you can see why the elites running america, are such morons.
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Elon Musk’s vision for colonizing Mars has been compared to the themes of survival and adaptation found in the story of “Robinson Crusoe.” He aims to establish a self-sustaining city on Mars, similar to how Crusoe adapted to life on a deserted island, with plans for a million inhabitants by 2050. Musk’s goal is to make humans a multi-planetary species, echoing the survival instincts of Crusoe.
BBC Business Insider
Elon Musk’s Vision for Mars Colonization
Elon Musk’s ambition to colonize Mars draws parallels to the themes of survival and adaptation found in the story of “Robinson Crusoe.” His plans reflect a desire to create a self-sustaining city on Mars, where humans can thrive in a new environment.
Key Aspects of Musk’s Mars Plan
Population Goal: Musk aims to establish a city with a population of one million by 2050.
Multi-Planetary Species: His overarching goal is to make humans a multi-planetary species, ensuring the survival of humanity beyond Earth.
Survival and Adaptation: Similar to Crusoe’s adaptation to life on a deserted island, Musk envisions humans adapting to the Martian environment.
Comparison to “Robinson Crusoe”
Aspect Elon Musk’s Mars Vision Robinson Crusoe’s Story
Survival Establishing a self-sustaining city Adapting to life on a deserted island
Population Aiming for one million inhabitants Crusoe’s solitary existence, later joined by Friday
Adaptation Developing technology for Martian living Learning to survive with limited resources
Musk’s vision encapsulates the spirit of exploration and the human instinct to survive and adapt, much like Crusoe’s journey.
Wikipedia codastory.com
Elon Musk plans to build a self-sustaining city on Mars that could eventually house one million people, aiming to make humanity a multi-planetary species. This city would require significant cargo deliveries, estimated at around one million tons, to ensure all necessary resources for survival and sustainability are available.
Inverse CNBC
In Robinson Crusoe, the survival theme is tied to European ideas of controlling nature: Crusoe’s shipwreck forces him to rely on his own skills to endure, and over time he “masters” the island. This self-reliant “dominion over nature” can be read as a small-scale version of colonial conquest, where an outsider imposes order and extracts resources from an unfamiliar land.
uniwriter.ai Studocu
Elon Musk aims to make the vision of Star Trek a reality through SpaceX by establishing human settlements on Mars and promoting interstellar travel. He believes that achieving this will help humanity become a multiplanetary species and explore beyond our solar system.
Wikipedia Yahoo
Elon Musk’s Vision for Mars and Star Trek
Making Star Trek a Reality
Elon Musk has expressed a desire to transform the imaginative concepts of Star Trek into reality through his company, SpaceX. He envisions a future where humanity can travel to other planets and even beyond our solar system. Musk’s ultimate goal is to establish human settlements on Mars and promote interstellar travel, which he believes is essential for the survival of humanity.
Goals of SpaceX
Musk’s ambitions include:
Colonizing Mars: Establishing a self-sustaining human settlement on Mars.
Interstellar Travel: Developing technology that allows for travel to other star systems.
Exploring Alien Life: Seeking out potential extraterrestrial civilizations.
The Importance of Becoming Multiplanetary
Musk argues that becoming a multiplanetary species is crucial for humanity’s long-term survival. He believes that colonizing Mars will not only extend human civilization but also provide a backup for humanity in case of catastrophic events on Earth.
Summary of Musk’s Vision
Aspect Description
Inspiration Star Trek and its vision of space exploration
Primary Goal Establish human settlements on Mars
Long-term Vision Enable interstellar travel and exploration of alien life
Philosophy Ensure humanity’s survival by becoming multiplanetary
Musk’s vision reflects a blend of science fiction aspirations and practical goals, aiming to turn what was once considered fantasy into a tangible future for humanity.
Wikipedia Yahoo
Elon Musk’s vision for Mars parallels themes in Star Wars, particularly the idea of creating a new home for humanity in the face of existential threats. Musk sees Mars as a refuge for human civilization, similar to how characters in Star Wars seek new worlds to escape danger and ensure survival.
Indiatimes
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and that is the mindset that rules us. so if you think these people have some sort of brake, you are only kidding yourself. its full steam ahead, period.
the north koreans know. the north vietnamese drove us out of south east asias continent.
out of south vietnam, out of cambodia, out of Laos.
Purple Library Guy
“enforceable guarantees, simultaneous implementation and mechanisms preventing one party from receiving concessions before abandoning its own obligations…”
You know, aside from being all pugnacious and ignoring reality, I find myself wondering if the Trump administration has enough competence available to it to even set up something like this. They just seem to have got rid of all the people capable of doing stuff like the nitty gritty of putting together the clauses in a treaty, sweating the details, making the parts fit together, any of the actual work that results in something implementable.
GrimJim
“You know, aside from being all pugnacious and ignoring reality, I find myself wondering if the Trump administration has enough competence available to it to even set up something like this. They just seem to have got rid of all the people capable of doing stuff like the nitty gritty of putting together the clauses in a treaty, sweating the details, making the parts fit together, any of the actual work that results in something implementable.” — Purple
Nope.
No competence left whatsoever.
They have purged or sidelined any of the “Deep State” bureaucrats (i.e., career bureaucrats) in favor of their own apparatchiks, who, if even remotely competent, are merely Mitreisende (“Bootlickers,” Nazi-style), who happily push the Great Leader’s whims (or the 2025 Agenda) regardless of whether it works or not.
And they will lick his boots and kiss his ass all the way down into the depths of Hell, taking the rest of us with them.
Nat Wilson Turner
This war has been so disastrously mismanaged by Trump et al that I keep thinking there is some agenda that I’m missing on the part of his Zionist masters —mass depopulation? Destroying the us empire? A banking showdown between the Silicon Valley bros vs the old line London/NY axis vs the Chinese banks? Wtf?
Mark Level
Yeah, Ian, from your keyboard to God’s (or dog’s) ears.
Just watching an Alex Christoforou and the Duran share, US “outraged” it’s so unfair that China and Russia helped Iran with targeting the base where most US troops sitting ducks in Jordan, at least 2 US troops dead (their job, and I’m sure this is an undercount) and many more injured. Other sites, Nima & Jacques Baud note that Saudis won’t take US bases, and many more. Bahrain will be extinct soon unless US stops its futile War. Will anyone in the Pentagon take the Weapons away from the Donald while you report US Missile (and other) Ordnance in a steep decline? Everybody knows, Nope. No brake, no reverse gear, can’t learn anything, it’s still 2003 & we are “the unchallenged Hegemon.” Don’t sample your own Hopium supply that’s a guarantee for psychosis and breakdown.
Wind sowed, Whirlwind being reaped. US provided Targeting for Ukraine for years, now the payback is here . . . Other news from Imperial Decline, per Christoforou, Democrats responding to their base in Congress are demanding that the “tribute” to the late Lady Lindsey Graham of the 25th (or so) set of “Bone Crushing Sanctions” against Russia need to be blocked, Oil bills coming due soon, and this would weaken the dollar’s value, and create massive Inflation in other areas not yet impacted . . . Some sense even the Trumpies see the Cliff Edge just steps ahead, no idea if they will stop or not.
Russia also warned Japan, since it’s providing drones to the drowning Ukraine Junta that if it doesn’t stop, they will pay a price, since Ukraine as we all (except the recently absent LAS) know, during 4 years, Ukraine only had one success against Russia, when the SMO started, Russia only had 125K troops deployed against 200K troops that Nato had built up there, so initial progress slow. Ukraine does not do force contra force Military attacks, it focuses entirely on . . . Terrorism against civilians and civilian infrastructure. Imagining this will break the morale and determination of the Russians, the effect precisely the opposite. Japan the one power to defeat Russia, c. 1905, their victory lasted some years, fewer than 20 as best as I recall.
Talk of coups, either against Zelensky of the Golden Toilets and Israeli and Tuscan Villas, also General Syrsky possibly to be the fall-guy. Kind of a Hitler “Final days in the Bunker” vibe . . .
I thank spud for the usual cogent thoughts and share, I agree that at one time Putin et al saw themselves as wanna-be Davos Elites, I think they are for the most part well beyond this by now. The only “Winning” seen is in Ghina, Russia, Iran, to a lesser extent the lands of Ansar al-Allah, the real Yemenis, not the UN recognized “government” run out of a Hotel Room in the small part of the country not in “Houthi” possession.
As to your take on Elon and the Robinson Crusoe nostalgia, I too as a young teenager, 12-14 at most really liked that story. Later on realized how sick it is. A white man stranded and forced entirely onto “his own” resources and ingenuity, alone on a “Jungle” Island, recruits a brown-skilled Native to be his slave, a real gift to the “darky.” A perfect fantasy bubble of creating a Hierarchical “Civilization” for emotionally retarded individuals which the likes of Apartheid Clyde (Elon’s nickname among the workers at his Tesla plant south of San Francisco and the bay) long for.
Trump doing a lot of “Losing, Bigly” lately. A couple Spanish players who won the World Cup deliberately shook the FIFA officials’ hands, snubbed Trump and walked right past him. Infantino (what a great name for a puffed-up Bully, literally the Little Brat, or alternately Pipsqueak) had to literally pull Trump off the Dais, and the Spanish team made sure to share a photo Sans the fat Orange Orangutan.
Back to spud, yes, the Vietnamese heralded the Empire’s degeneration into Nixon’s biggest paranoid fantasy, “a pitiful, helpless giant,” now it’s pitiful, not wholly helpless, but no longer a Giant in any case, except a Giant Stinking Turd.
To Purple Library Guy, agreed. These people cannot run things, it’s obvious. They can run things into the ground, that’s about it!! Empire circling the drain . . . Will anyone dance in its Ruins? I wouldn’t bet on it, Climate Change Acceleration may make that celebration short-lived. Perhaps the Greenlanders, Icelanders and Siberians and Inuit will ride it out? Time will tell.
“Western Civilization” as Gandhi noted with sarc, “a good idea” but ended badly.
mago
A case of hubris chasing phantoms with real world consequences.
Everybody’s talking nobody knows
Conflagrations expectations the world ‘s on fire and foxes rule the coop, although that’s giving more credit to the ruling dunderheads than they deserve.
Foxes are wily and wise while the idiots in charge couldn’t find their dicks in the dark. And that’s the only card they’re holding.
Their dicks I mean.
Duck me blind Jesus.
Carborundum
Overall, the weight of the Iranian response doesn’t seem very high. The US looks to be hitting somewhere around 80 – 100 aimpoints per day. I haven’t seen any credible counts of the number of aimpoints the Iranians have hit, but the scale of the attacks – a couple of ballistic missiles combined with a handful of Shaheds at the high end – seems pretty modest. I’ve seen no reporting indicating serious attempts at saturation attacks.
I do find myself wondering whether the American concept of operations has changed – we’re seeing surging of a number of significant platforms from Europe and CONUS, including tankers, additional F-35s and Wild Weasels. I know that some of these are replacements for aircraft that were rotated back for repair and maintenance, but I strongly suspect that we’re looking at material net gains in deployed air power. If I had to bet, it would be on the US seeking to force protected traffic through the straits, primarily by hitting Iranian detection and command and control resources.
Oakchair
However, the MOU’s failure strengthens those in the government who thought it was a waste of time.
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A portion of the dithering in Iran and Russia can be explained by this internal power struggle. For whatever reasons these nations are concerned about manufacturing consent for war not just amongst the people but in each faction of the ruling class. Western governments don’t give a shit about public opinion. Russia and Iran do.
Maybe Russia’s refusal to lay waste to Ukraine is because Putin and company are captured by the west. Even if that is the case the sociological result has been a domestic population that grows more militant by the day while the opposite occurs in the West.
If Iran’s Supreme leader had chosen to over ride the other factions his position would have been correct. The risk of doing that though was increased divisions and reduced solidarity. Likewise, because he did not override the other factions they now have to accept he was correct. If he had overrode them they could still sit and pretend he was wrong.
@Spud
As incompetent as the Western ruling class appears –how much of this incompetence is theater– we have to give them an A+ for propaganda.
@Nat Wilson Turner
I have similar feelings. The idea that the ruling class which controls the media, internet, banks, science, Hollywood etc is incompetent doesn’t hold water.
This is a ruling class that has shown it is capable of conspiring to turn pagers into bombs, orchestrating world wide color revolutions, rigging elections, creating controlled opposition several layers deep, and creating a pandemic. That is competence at the highest level.
The belief that they are bumbling idiots comes from the same source that portrayed George W. Bush as a common man. A cowboy working the ranch during the day and reading the bible at night.
different clue
Why would the Zionist masters want mass depopulation? Where would they want it?Why would Silicon techbros want a world of desperate long-term oil and natgas shortages when they are ramping up data centers which run on natgas ( and maybe oil if the natgas runs out)? How would traditional mainline banks benefit from a disordered world with less money to be made and fewer confident borrowers borrowing less?
Why does there have to be an agenda at all? At least on Trump’s part? And what has Trump ever managed well, except his own swindling and thieving? He’s managed the Reflecting Pool and the Grand Ballroom as badly as he has managed the Iran War, only the Iran War can get even worse because it will go on longer for higher stakes.
If one wants to consider agendas, why not consider the combination 2025 agenda and the Christianazian agenda . . . . to break government enough to make it unrepairable, and to break society enough that the Christianazians can take over the wreckage and institute their new Gilead Bible Republic of Christianazi Satanofascistan? That’s the Occam’s Razor answer, I would think.
Trump’s own innermost drive ( not well thought out enough to be an agenda) is to destroy America to get revenge on America for not worshiping and loving Trump as much as he feels he deserves. That’s really all the agenda Trump himself needs.
Maybe Lambert Strether was exactly right when he said ” this is the world’s stupidest timeline”.
The reason “Congress” can’t impeach and reMOVE Trump is because the Republicanfederates are unanimously in support of keeping Trump in office till the bitter end. ( And meanswhile, within the White House itself, who is Trump’s Mrs. Wilson? Who is Trump’s Colonel House).
And the reason the Democrats IN Congress won’t even try to impeach, however impossible the Republicanfederates would make removal to achieve, is because the Democrats are miserable little subhuman civility cucks. Impeachment wouldn’t be nice. ” What would Mister Rogers think?” Democrats are the Neville Chamberlin of the current drama. They are the present-day reincarnation of the worms that Hitler saw at Munich.
Mark Pontin
Hey, Ian —
This in the FT was pretty interesting —
Midwest sunset: Trump’s tariffs hit America’s farming powerhouse
The US is on the verge of losing its status as the world’s leading agricultural exporter
Archived — https://archive.ph/NIvLH
FT — https://www.ft.com/content/8aa89209-dc0b-4678-9b6a-01029398b304?syn-25a6b1a6=1
— and likely a bigger entry than people think when a future Annals of the Fall of the Moron Empire gets written.
Jan Wiklund
“If America were even marginally competently run” –
According to Nel Bonilla, https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/p/incompetent-or-imperial-rethinking, the Western elites *are* competent, but only at one thing: networking. They are marvellously good at delivering joint decisions, and at exactly the right time at that.
But they have no knowledge at all about what they are supposed to govern. I doubt that they even think it is preferable. They use their collectively preconceived imagination – or “idelology” – as the only rule, and that is good enough for them, sinve building their network is the only thing that matters.
I believe “Aurelien”, the retired British civil service man, says about the same thing but a lot more verbously: https://aurelien2022.substack.com/.
Mark Pontin
Different Clue: ‘Democrats are the Neville Chamberlin of the current drama. They are the present-day reincarnation of the worms that Hitler saw at Munich.’
Unjust to Chamberlain, who gets a more unfair rep among amateur historians than Herbert Hoover and with less justification.
[1] Everybody in the UK desperately wanted to avert a repeat of the bloodbath that WW1 had been for almost every family in the country. As even that old warmonger Churchill said, “Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.” As matters turned out, WW2 was indeed an even bigger bloodbath than WW1, with 75-80 million dead globally.
[2] Chamberlain’s Munich treaty bought Britain the time it needed to re-arm.
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Who needs missiles or any ordinance really, nukes included, when you have Donald Trump’s bluster. Welcome to 21st century warfare where it’s not bombs and bodies that win wars, but instead bombastic bluster. Apparently. Perception, managing it, is the most powerful tool in the arsenal.
I have to laugh at the Lib pundits playing up a few American soldiers perishing. Have they no shame? No perspective? I think they have neither and they are grifters cashing in on managing perceptions. When you are in a war, soldiers die. It’s not a major news story when a couple of soldiers die. If 5,000 died or 10,000 in one battle, THAT IS A MAJOR NEWS STORY, otherwise those playing up the death of a couple of soldiers are playing politics and grifting. Imagine these same grifting alarmists reporting on Normandy or Pearl Harbor. This “war” is a joke in comparison to WWI or WWII or Korea and Vietnam really.
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Russia also warned Japan, since it’s providing drones to the drowning Ukraine Junta that if it doesn’t stop, they will pay a price, …
Too funny. Vlad sounds desperate. Because he is. Putin is getting his Nicholas II on. Nick’s adventurism with Japan is part and parcel of what ultimately led to the fall of the imperial Romanov dynasty. Vlad thinks he will succeed where Nick failed. Alrighty then.
Trump and Putin are very much alike in certain ways. There is overlap from a Venn diagram perspective. Perhaps it’s the daily/weekly chit chats for which they are famous. They want to stay on the same page and reflect one another.
Mark Level
One Zionist Fanatic on here wishcasting, “Oh, the Iranian restraint in gradual escalation and attrition shows they are weak (Untermenschen), US does it right, see Bush’s ‘Shock and Awe,’ at the initiation of the Iraq Invasion (based entirely on lies, that’s how we do it), killing a hundred or so schoolgirls, then their families sends a clear message, surrender to pure evil and bare your throats for the knife, slaves. Uhhm, US still occupying Iraq but nobody even nominally sane (& even David Brooks, clearly not sane nor reasonable) considers Iraq, O.I.L. (original concept name, “Operation Iraqi Liberation”) a success.
“We” the Empire exterminate, and the little subhumans cry and bleed and we feel so good, so much power, We are History’s Actors, they are the cattle (goyim) we rape and steal from and slaughter, so much Winning!!” Uhhm in the short term, perhaps, not in the long.
I don’t need to prove “The Earth is Flat, the brown people appreciate our Power and serve us by dying quietly” is wrong, facts (not those filtered thru MICIMATT) seen over time do that for me. Will do a share from MoA–
“Considering the now lost KC135 tanker planes destroyed in SA today, and the strikes on the Jordanian bases over the weekend, it is estimated that the USAF and USN have now lost over 65 aircraft of various types on the ground and in the air.
KC135’s, KC130’s, KC10’s, KC46’s, HH53’s, F16’s, F15’s, F18’s, E3’s, P8’s, P3’s, A10’s, C130’s, C17’s, billions of dollars in aircraft losses, plus the loss of trained flight crews. Numbers of IDF losses is unknown, but must be substantial.
Thousands of Patriot PAC2 and 3’s, and cruise missiles have been expended, rapidly decreasing known inventories (and no Virginia there will be no Forge of Freedom replacements for these high tech weapon systems). The IDF has virtually no AAD missiles left, and is begging for missiles from the US and the Ukronazi and UK stockpiles (obviously the UK is worthless).
At least 60 MQ and Hermes drones have also been destroyed, and or downed and recovered by the IRGC forces.
One US CVN (USS Gerald R. Ford), and one navy dock ship have been heavily damaged by C809 anti ship missiles, and are now out of service for extensive repairs. Billions in repairs are now required to these navy ships.
Numerous oil tankers have been attacked by the USN and the IRGC, and VLCC’s are now basically useable in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea due to Houthi, IRGC and USN blockades. SA is now forced to use much smaller tankers in order to access the Suez Canal via Yanbu Port.
This situation is rapidly spinning out of control, with the US threatening to insert even more aircraft into the theater of operations, and base these aircraft in occupied Lod, making then vulnerable when parked wing tip to wing tip at IDF airbases.
Air power can not win wars, read the Post WWII Strategic Bombing Study Report…………..regarding the 8th AAF and Bomber Command attacks on Germany, Austria, Czech, and Romania.
DJT is now officially in a very tight spot…..how does he react ? Stay tuned sports fans!
Posted by: tobias cole | Jul 20 2026 18:03 utc | 6”
Mr. Cole brings the goods; Larry Johnson with Nima yesterday stated US can continue attacks for 2-3 weeks in “best case” scenario, after that cupboard very bare, years to replace everything that’s been thrown away, Mileikowsky brandished the pictures, Rapist Donnie complied . . . Iran with $600 drones takes out US radars and planes worth 1/4 million each.
Iraq benefits from its Allies experience, moving slowly Westward toward the ZAE itself, Heart, Guts and Fist of the Imperial Cancer. Jordan the last bulwark to take down before hitting the Center itself, Ukraine size relative to Russia about 1-20, ZAE relative to Iran 2 million, see “Statista”:
“As Israel’s population edged past 10 million people in 2025, the number of migrant workers and asylum seekers, mostly from Asia and Africa, now accounted for about two percent of residents. The other 98 percent was composed of various ethnicities and religions, including Jews, Arabs, Christians, and Druze.” Of course, only ONE group (okay, a few of their Capo proxies also have some basic human rights, Druze who kill their fellow Arabs mainly not killed, jailed, nor have their homes stolen) matters, suppose it’s 7+ million of the 10 million, has to “mow the lawn” annually and constantly murder Palestinians (ancestors of the Indigenous Jews of ancient times) and others, even treats the Mizrahi Indigenous actual (not Northern Euro/ Khazar Converso) Jews like shit.
7.5 million (but many who are rational and not genocidal have fled, tens of thousands in exile) vs., being generous I have heard mainly Civilian Deaths in Iran in latest unprovoked attack is bit over 60,000, original figure was 93 million at start of Operation Kill the Browns. 7.5 million to 92.9 million =12.3866666667 Size advantage. Oh, also a nearly 5 Millenia old Native Civilization vs. a transplanted Settler-Colonialist artificial Entity aged 78 years old.
Finally, Iran popular across entire Shi’a world, dozens of nations, see the millions who mourned Khamenai Sr. across the region, including in US-allied Turkiye; did the #s reach the 11 million who greeted Khomeini on his return from Paris in the 70s? I don’t know, but both figures are impressive. Iran has powerful, competent allies, China, Russia, Yemen, & most of RoW sympathizes with Iran, not the Empire of Lies and Genocide. ZAE’s Allies: Various sputtering Fascist South American Rentier states, e.g. Argentina, all of Europe nearly (not Spain, not mostly Ireland, not Italy for now) due to a Nazi Ruling Class, but Europe a pipsqueak, just a vassal, will be hit nearly as hard as the Global South by the Donald’s de-Petroleumization. “Drill Baby, Drill!” turned into Hormuz Strait spigot turned OFF, 20%+ of GCC supplies sidelined or blocked for years. Brilliant!!
Western Leaders’ Suicidal Ideation for their societies clear; see upthread discussion, Bill Gates, WEF and Big Pharma for years openly advocate Mass Die-Offs in the decaying West, ‘coz they are such “Nature-Loving” Eco-Tourist types. No dirty proles needed, all the Labor will be done by robots and AI and Data Centers, much more efficient, one-time investment, no salaries needed.
Huxley, Orwell, P.K. Dick and others had some pretty dark predictions but at this point all look far too optimistic.
Zionist Apartheid Entity despised along with Trump USA worldwide, a dying Empire crashing out with maximum murder, looting, sexual abuse of the weak, children, and genocide. World will say good riddance!! Nobody now writing about the greatness of the Akkadian Empire, few will for the “Western Order” in the future.
spud
Oakchair:
you mistake cunning, cleverness, and manipulation as being smart. fascism is simply the capitalists response to socialism.
so just like monopoly, which is pure capitalism, there comes a time when no one wants to play anymore, whats the point, except maybe one to two players, one or two players own it all game over. but the capitalists then turn to force to keep you playing a game that is not sustainable at all, its called fascism.
under fascism, the fascists are so busy killing off others, and jailing and killing their own people, gutting their own infrastructure and resources, that in the end, they can no longer field a offensive infrastructure, let alone a defensive one.
so today, america is having a hard time responding to iran, china and russia. the question that i and others asked bill clinton in 1993, is how are you going to defend yourself, let alone exert power if you gut your infrastructure of skills, R&D, machinery, factories, and spend huge amounts of oil shipping parts and crops, all over the world so that financial parasites, can make a few more pennies per unit.
now you know what fascism is.
lambert was wrong. we have been here before, many times in fact.
Nat Wilson Turner
@different clue — depopulation is one of the most obvious outcomes of this war https://x.com/afshinrattansi/status/2079188082998603843
Also, depopulation makes sense for a huge variety of reasons— climate change, resource depletion, replacement of human labor with automation etc etc plus lebensraum for the chosen etc
Feral Finster
1. “At least militarily speaking, there were diplomatic reasons to do so, since both Pakistan and China wanted a peace deal, and Pakistan has a defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Iran needed to prove that they had made all possible efforts, to continue receiving the support they need from China and to keep Pakistan out of the war.”
Neither Pakistan nor China care whether Iran made efforts at diplomacy or not.
The United States has myriad pressure points over Pakistan to drag them into the war. No , it will not be popular in Pakistan. Nobody cares.
China simply wants to be able to get back to selling things and making money and is willing to grasp at any straw.
2. As long as the US is not concerned with Iranian air defenses, they’ll simply resort to JDAM-equipped dumb bombs, of which they have a near-limitless supply.
Yes, more pilots will get killed, more wear and tear on airframes, more fuel used, etc.. Nobody cares.
Feral Finster
“You know, aside from being all pugnacious and ignoring reality, I find myself wondering if the Trump administration has enough competence available to it to even set up something like this. They just seem to have got rid of all the people capable of doing stuff like the nitty gritty of putting together the clauses in a treaty, sweating the details, making the parts fit together, any of the actual work that results in something implementable.” — PLG
The terms of any treaty were and are always irrelevant, because the United States never will abide by the terms of any treaty, as there is no treaty Iran can make that will satisfy Israel.
Feral Finster
“A portion of the dithering in Iran and Russia can be explained by this internal power struggle. For whatever reasons these nations are concerned about manufacturing consent for war not just amongst the people but in each faction of the ruling class. Western governments don’t give a shit about public opinion. Russia and Iran do.
Maybe Russia’s refusal to lay waste to Ukraine is because Putin and company are captured by the west. Even if that is the case the sociological result has been a domestic population that grows more militant by the day while the opposite occurs in the West.” – Oakchair
I won’t try to speak for Iran, but the Russian elite would gladly sell the entirety of Russia for a single scoop of gelato in Tuscany. Pistachio, if possible. For some reason, Russians love pistachio ice cream.
The Russian public generally support the war, but only as long as they personally are not too inconvenienced by it. This is the real reason Russia keeps dithering with a mobilization. The 2022 mobilization was incredibly unpopular and led to widespread resistance in Russia.
Ukraine doesn’t give a shit. They use Nazi methods fanatics with guns at the backs of press-ganged conscripts. Those methods work,
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Seriously? What was worthy of censorship in the two comments I posted? I attacked no one here and my points are as valid as anyone’s commentary.
Dan Kelly
I agree with Nat and Carb.
Does anyone remember when they first heard that the US is going to run out of weapons?
A year ago?
Two years ago?
Back in 2022?
Who is telling us that the US is going to run out of weapons?
Why, it’s the US’ own media landscape!
They have decided to let the world know how weak they are!
It’s pure incompetence!!!
Or it’s akin to the greatest trick the devil ever played.
Interestingly, China has been preparing for the US to launch an attack on it for seemingly forever and they have recently upped their game even more vis-a-vis this potentiality.
This according to ‘Simplicius the Thinker’ writing from his ‘Garden of Knowledge:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-new-third-front-china-quietly
Why would China be so concerned about a dying empire that they themselves largely control via their unparalleled dominance in rare earth processing and their decades-ahead technological lead?
A few possibilities off the top of my head:
China is just plain stupid,
China is fearmongering despite its dominance in order to further entrench its own military-industrial-technological-security-surveillance apparatus.
I will add here that this also makes a lot of Chinese very wealthy even given that the heights of wealth aren’t as high as in ‘the west’ or elsewhere.
It’s not like Jack Ma was ever hung in a public square.
Another very ‘conspiratorial’ possibility is that elements in both China and the US ‘work together’ at a level that is above and beyond what most are privvy to.
cc
Related to “or perhaps because he’s being blackmailed”:
The Strange Death of James V. Forrestal, the First US Secretary of Defense
Did Israel start its serial assassination campaigns of its American opponents much earlier than we assume?
https://www.unz.com/bhua/the-strange-death-of-james-v-forrestal-the-first-us-secretary-of-defense/
Is Trump also under Israeli threats to launch the insane war on Iran despite his campaign promises?
Ian Welsh
Nothing was censored. I simply was afk. If you don’t see other comments being approved, don’t leap to the conclusion you’ve been censored and even then, wait it a bit before jumping.
spud
the reasons why i consider trade evil, and free trade as economic suicide. because you have to deal with countries that export their unemployment, poverty, and deflation onto others. instead of making internal reforms.
other countries will do everything they can, to attain a trade surplus, no matter the costs to you and others, including themselves.
the smell of money from a trade surplus, is just to strong for many to ignore. we see that today from the trade surplus countries, germany, china, japan and others.
although keynes warned how dangerous that is, and the kind of friction it causes, like we saw, WWI, WWII, and today.
so by attaining that surplus in the end, ends in disaster. see germany and what they did to europe, and japan is losing ground rapidly.
china seems to not want to address this, instead they seem to think its sustainable. its not.
someday if china’s surplus persists, even countries that become free of the western oligarch trading system, will slowly start to find china is the new master.
so when you trade, it has to be for whats needed that you do not, or cannot produce. otherwise you will be a target, and if you free trade, you might as well jump off a cliff and get it over with.
Feral Finster
afk?
mago
Somehow I think Miriam Anderson’s money and Benny Yahoo whispering in his ear about how easy it would be coupled with the Venezuela caper had more influence on Trump’s decision than potential blackmail, but who knows? Also, he’s had a hard on for Iran and its oil since the 80’s.
I agree with L&S about the big sad over a couple of dead American soldiers. Over ten thousand Iranian civilians killed and a million displaced barely merits a yawn. It’s pathetic, especially considering the lack of concern for life amongst our masters who are intent on culling the herd as Nat and others mentioned.
Carborundum
To be clear, the US and Israel are expending interceptors at an unsupportable rate and it is cutting into their strategic supply (quite severely in Israel’s case) – the issue is that the Iranians aren’t going to suddenly gain the ability to unilaterally destroy everything at will if the US and Israel go black on interceptors.
Most of the real damage Iran has done to date has been with Shaheds, at shorter ranges. Those aren’t being targeted with interceptors – they’re being taken down with much more prosaic and cheaper systems that aren’t being talked about except in the trade press. I don’t see any indication that there’s shortages of those systems (there really shouldn’t be – they’re cheap like borscht in defence terms).
The Iranians must be holding a significant number of ballistic missiles in reserve, but they do not as yet seem to be deploying them in mass attacks like we saw last year. If I had to guess why, it would be due to a combination of wanting to keep some longer range deterrence against Israel (and distant US basing) and not having the accuracy and throw weight necessary to inflict sufficient damage to the types of targets they are most concerned with (IAF basing), but that’s a guess on my part.
The really key challenge in all this is that the dominant western actors (Israel and the US) are to a non-trivial extent insulated from the consequences of their actions, but also don’t have any obvious means of taking Iran out of the fight if they’re willing to keep taking hits. Iran obviously holds a lot of petrochemical infrastructure at threat, but they’re every bit as vulnerable as the Gulfies if they go down that route.
Ian Welsh
AFK = away from keyboard.
I do not approve comments 24/7. I sleep, I go out, etc… (I usually don’t carry my phone, even if I do, I don’t approve comments on it.)
StewartM
I just was in yet another Lend-Lease argument, over aviation fuel and additives deliveries to the USSR, on a YT thread.
Suffice it to say that my opponent was insulting and arrogant (he called me a Russian, a commie, an idiot, etc) while telling me that Lend-Lease started in 1939 while the Soviets were attacking Poland, invading the Baltic States, Bessarabia, and FInland. (In the real world, as opposed to his fantasy world, aid from both the UK and US started after the German invasion on June 21st, 1941). He also denied vehemently that the US needed the USSR to win the war, that we “saved” them and that FDR was a dolt, and that we could win WWII on our own, despite what our military leadership actually thought.
In short, he struck me as a Ken Hovind, a Young Earth Creationist, treated Drew, a young atheist who grew up in an evangelical family:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdyjN_zCO_M
I mean, over-the-top ignorance that’s too stupid to know that it’s stupid.
But one of the things I’ve also learned is that all those quotes on how vital Lend-Lease was by Soviet leaders (Stalin, Khrushchev, Zhukov) all came from….RADIO FREE EUROPE. They were outright propaganda! They’re either mis-interpretations or mis-translations of what was actually said, or inventions (Zhukov denied ever having said what was attributed to him). Since the early Cold War Days, movement conservatism has trumpeted the US as invincible and omnipotent.
This propaganda has been running US foreign policy since Reagan. I just saw a video of Trump dissing Canada, saying “we don’t need Canada”, just like we don’t need China, or Taiwan, or Europe. This is even true despite the fact that the US is far weaker now than then, relative to the rest of the world, and maybe in absolute terms too.
I can’t think of any other reason why our leadership is so incompetent other than the relentless propaganda they get as ‘education’. That, and the fact that now they, including our business leadership, have no connection or experience whatsoever in actually producing a product or service; they’re all paper manipulators.
Feral Finster
@StewartM:
Between 70-90% of German casualties (depending on who counts and how) were on the Eastern Front.
As to how a US and uk were going to mount an invasion of europe with perhaps three times more defenders, aircraft, a Kriegsmarine with fewer constraints on construction, etc, and how they were going to supply that invasion force over beaches remains to be seen.
Keep in mind that the Allies were very concerned that Stalin might sign a separate peace with germany, once germany had been driven from the territory of the Soviet Union. Odd, if the Soviet contribution were so negligible.
And then there is Operation August Storm, the Soviet invasion of Manchuria. The US and its little british catamite sure were clamoring hard for that, and when they got their wish, it scared the bejeezus out of them. Remember that, as late as September, 1944, USN intelligence considered the Kwantung Army to be the most powerful land army in the world.
That was surely a gross mischaracterization, but the speed and overwhelming power of the Soviet advance sure gave the Americans and british the willies.
Mark Level
Good points from Oakchair, as usual. Especially this, responding to population culling by
“@Nat Wilson Turner
I have similar feelings. The idea that the ruling class which controls the media, internet, banks, science, Hollywood etc is incompetent doesn’t hold water.
This is a ruling class that has shown it is capable of conspiring to turn pagers into bombs, orchestrating world wide color revolutions, rigging elections, creating controlled opposition several layers deep, and creating a pandemic. That is competence at the highest level.” No error detected. But the MICIMATT assures that however many x they pull this shit, the Playbook was revealed with the fake WMD scam in 2002-03, surprisingly they didn’t even bother to plant something, which they would’ve had the ability to do. Couldn’t be bothered I guess.
Diff Clue somewhat correct, but all the ChristoFascist KlanMaga stuff is just Trump Red Meat for the base, appeals to bruce wilder types when ICE blows away lesbian mothers or Veteran’s Admin nurses, it brought in votes BUT as Trump becomes Herbert Hoover (which he himself predicted 6 weeks ago, then did), as you point out, he has no Strategy, never has and never will. Never read a book in his life, maybe his ghost-written “Art of the Steal” to see if it came out good. According to the Libs, one of his wives said he liked to read Hitler Speeches, likely true, but it didn’t fully stick. He can go to Stephen Miller or Steve Bannon for that. Gets his beliefs straight from Fox News, he’s dumb as dirt. If there were a Svengali behind him, say General Dan Caine, possibly something workable could be instituted, but believing he’s a Jenius, never gonna happen. You make good points about the DimmieCrap phonies though, better late than never to come around to that obvious fact. The DimmieCraps are purging their party of evil “Socialists”, “Anti-Capitalists,” if choice was between the former, (nobody awake votes Dem except in true insurgent cases, Mamdami, that woman in Michigan etc.), hopefully they vote al-Sayed there rather than the $5 million paid off fat Zionist lady there who shrieks “Israel comes to me in my dreams!!!”
Mark Pontin, of course!! It’s a feature, not a bug. Joe spat all over his voters who opposed Genocide, Kamala shrieked “I’M Speaking now!” when somebody objected in Michigan. “The President he’s got his war, folks don’t know just what it’s for”– Les McCann and Eddie Harris at the Montreaux Jazz Festival 1969, and nothing has changed. Voters matter UNTIL they put you in office, then they’re just garbage to piss down on from your Olympian Heights of Pure Power.
Jan W., of course– they’re little Networking Hall Monitors, they respect their Equals, collaborators in the Politricks scams, take all the legal bribes, barely work a day in your life, your symp Aides write all your policy positions, you feast with the Oligarchs, brandish your Rolex . . . 1 day you’re a Dimmie Operative, then you move up into the Big Leagues, the Daddy Party, there is no real difference. Club is small, you might get in as an Intern, never get paid nor a Made Man.
Finster likely right, however over 80% of the Pakistani populace hates the ZAE, and thus by transitive power its Siamese Twin, USA. The bill comes due at some point. Many have noted that Iran given all the US Military Locations in Lebanon, by . . . Private Lebanese Citizens who don’t want 40% of their country handed over to their Butchers. No need to give the Lebanese a Darwin Award, they’re smarter than that. Thus we get our Military “Heroes” killed and Hegseth can showboat by lauding their “sacrifice!” 19 year old Texan Isabella Gonzalez, just graduated High School last year, now she’s dead cannon fodder. No need for ICE officers in Texas to do the dirty deed, in that case the Admin would be lauding the murder, “perfect victims,” brown people more expendable on either side of the gun barrel.
Lie and Suborn with the usual Russophobic Mania, Putin equals the Czar, I wanted the Czar to keep the Serfs in slavery so my ancestors could keep their Dachas and serfs, it’s so unfair those dirty Commies!! 1917 an awfully long time ago, until you build your time machine it’s out of your hands. Also, my biggest belly laugh was at your thinking the threat against Japan inconsequential. Bad old history there, naturally you side with the Japanese as an Ethno-Supremacist culture, never apologized for killing millions of Chinese, Manchurians, Okinawans, Filipinos and other “subhumans”, raping Comfort Women, etc. 8 decades later, a society with very few children or young people, elderly comfortable people dying off slowly, but . . . still pro-Fascist, no learning or growth even after the beloved US Atom-bombed 2 of their cities, mainly to “Warn the Russians,” who were warned and developed their own Nukes with their own bought-off German scientists in the matter of a few years. Japan a Vassal to US like Australia, UK, etc. People who don’t respect themselves can’t be respected by others!! (At least in my world, that may not apply in your case.) Then the Troll gets all paranoid, “Why am I being censored?”– Ian did you a favor in censoring that first “I hate most white women” post, you demanded it be shared and it was. Didn’t make you look much better to me, maybe there’s an audience for that here somewhere, though I didn’t see anyone chiming in their approval on that one.
Dan Kelly, a shame we don’t live near enough to make a bet. US is soon out of weapons, the fricking Daily Telegraph is covering this, WaPo says the Pentagon is “concealing” the lack of capacity from the Admin, don’t want the Fat Orangutan to stroke out too soon; NYT also. These are not symps for the Iranians, they’re crying “come back” after horse already fled the barn, futile, but don’t want to get caught out for lying when the consequences hit home, very soon. When you’re waging multiple faraway Wars at once, eventually it doesn’t work, especially when your domestic War Manufacturing is a Gold-Plated Scam on the taxpayers. “Have you ever bean to China?”, asking in the tone of that “expert” British twit Douglas Murray who was paid to symp for the ZEA. He has a degree in English, which made him an International Affairs Expert in his own mind. See here, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE8Sd-pJmzE
I have “bean” thru the Beijing Airport twice (en route to Thailand), do not claim expertise beyond reading, but millions lifted out of poverty in a generation, bullet trains, virtually no homeless, huge industrial cities. They are a designated “rival power” because they’re better than US, and any society with a Social Safety Net, Health Care and Education free must be quashed because “Capitalism is the Best Ever.” Jack Ma wasn’t hung in a public square, but he paid some price, do you think US is better because the Scammer Rick Scott of Florida could steal billions from Medicare, forced to pay back 1//4 of the amount stolen in the biggest fraud settlement in US history (at that time) and continue to have a political career for 3 decades after, call for the deaths of Palestinians, Iranian schoolchildren and American poors? Which system is better? I know and the World knows. I will read the Simplicius piece later, he is usually pretty insightful.
cc, good share– yes Forrestal was onto something he shouldn’t have known. Dosed with LSD and then “suicided” out a window or off a roof? MK-Ultra; but why him?
Mark Level
I commend Carborundum for a more fact-based 2nd post; I know he doesn’t respect me, and actively hates me, I am Goyish (at best a 1/3 chance given my Spanish heritage that my ancestors were Jews, unlike most of the Ashkenazis), also I am a damn good Qabalist, studied and taught it for 4 decades, not that that means anything to the Zionist Crew, as I would never applaud a genocide or the destruction of nearly 200 UNRWA relief stations to feed civilians, as Carb did a couple years back. I also keep the Covenant, but not my choice, Midwestern boys born in the late 50s victim of that mutilation without their consent. Still, unlike say LAS you value your credibility which is a positive.
I also read the Simplicius piece recommended by Dan, more importantly. It was very good, very well-informed that the Chinese (like the Iranians) have mapped out every contingency including the very worst and most apocalyptic, are prepared for any- and everything. I didn’t see anything (admittedly I’m not a subscriber, perhaps this was in the 2nd half of the post?) suggesting collusion between the failing US Hegemon and the Chinese. Why would they need to bother? Don’t turn your back on a freak who loves stabbing others.
At this moment, it looks like the next World War hits the Mideast first, the Russians roll up their (overdue, even in my eyes) Victory further East in Asia after the Trump-Hoover Depression hits worldwide (except for a lucky few, China, Canada, Russia). I could be mistaken, so many conflicts, US starts too many fights everywhere, as does the UK Nostalgists, the ZEA, etc. Scorpions often sting themselves to death in their fury at all perceived “threats.”
Dan Kelly
‘Jack Ma wasn’t hung in a public square, but he paid some price, do you think US is better because the Scammer Rick Scott of Florida could steal billions from Medicare…’
I don’t see the point of the comparison Mark.
I hope you are right and I am wrong about the weapons stocks.
I’m usually wrong so that’s a good sign…
I admit I don’t always read all your comments Mark because as I said once before they prompt so much in me and I have to process and reflect and these things take time…
I did want to say that POS Chris Christie did forbid ‘red light cameras’ and the like which is a positive from a civil liberties perspective.
He also cleaned up the Passaic Valley Sewerage Commission which was a den of corruption although some may liken it to old ‘Tammany Hall’ machine politics that is probably better in many respects than what we have now.
But I do not think a sewerage commission should necessarily be run like that so good for Christie.
I hope you are well Mark…that the move is going well.
Dan Kelly
‘admittedly I’m not a subscriber, perhaps this was in the 2nd half of the post?) suggesting collusion between the failing US Hegemon and the Chinese. Why would they need to bother?’
Yeah, I was going to mention that. I don’t like those things where they give away a little bit then ask you to subscribe but I also understand that is where we are at.
Subscribe to Nat Wilson Turner!
The Simplicius piece actually gives a good amount before the request.
And I didn’t post it to substantiate the speculation that suggests ‘collusion between the failing US Hegemon and the Chinese’ rather it would substantiate one of the other speculations, i.e. that China is simply entrenching its own intel-surveillance state using the US’s stupidity as a means for doing so.
That’s how ‘it’ works, right?
‘Collusion’ is also a problematic word here and one I never used myself.
Carborundum
I did not say that. That’s the second time in my recollection that you have falsely asserted that I said something that I did not. I don’t know what’s going on in your life that makes you project stuff like this, but my advice would be to take a beat and get out in the green for a bit.
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I did not say that. That’s the second time in my recollection that you have falsely asserted that I said something that I did not.
Welcome to the club. A club we never asked to join. We’re not alone, bruce is also a member and there will no doubt be others.
Ian, sorry for jumping the gin, so to speak. Almost immediately after posting the reactionary comment I realized Nat’s comment posted not because you moderated it, but because Nat is a contributing author and thus his commentary bypasses moderation.
Mark Level
Carborundum: Okay, you implied, not straight-out “said it.”
I wrote a post about the Blinken Butt-boy and celebrity chef Jose Andres having “come to the rescue” with one group, “World Central Kitchen”, after the Blinken-Sullivan Zionist Cult helped destroy nearly 200 (I recall the number as around 185, might be off by a bit) UNRWA food pantries across Gaza and Palestine. 1 Kitchen to replace 185, spread famine and kill people, mainly civilians, elders, women, children, by the hundreds of thousands. When the Ben Gvir fanatics did what we all expected, sent drones to kill the 9 workers from the ONE facility, hunting them down, one by one, even the Zionist loonies like Joe Scarborough lamented the killings because– 8 of the 9 “aid workers” deliberately slaughtered were White. There was 1 Palestinian security guy, also killed.
I ridiculed Andres’ naivete, and his deliberately murdering 9 of his own “charity” workers, he lauded his murdered victims as “the best of humanity” (which they likely were; he however is anything but), see here– https://apnews.com/article/memorial-world-central-kitchen-workers-gaza-israel-fd668fad5de83377c129ab832d699c70
And it happened a 2nd time, a few months later, he sent more well-meaning chumps to their brutal death, oh well!! Your response to my first post was pure Straw-manning, you claimed that I was pro-Genocide and had praised the slaughter, obvious to all (others called you out as did I) that nothing I have written on this site ever was pro-Genocide, obviously.
I haven’t forgotten your ridiculous smear, I laughed it off at the time and do so now, but hey, good effort. I don’t ask for an apology, I don’t believe you arecapable of that. I welcome your hate, I am a (sometimes) humble goy, I expect your contempt, as I do from Crypto-Fascists like LAS. You got what you clearly wanted, the destruction of UNRWA aid centers and more starvation of Indigenous people.
Oh and to Dan Kelly, yes, deadline for my next move looms soon . . . Feeling the crunch, but hope to get out of USA before we drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and what’s on sale at the gas pumps is poor quality and damaging to engines. We’re 3-4 weeks away from that at most.
Carborundum
The person who made the comment you find objectionable was NR, not me.
https://www.ianwelsh.net/irans-likely-response-to-the-attack-on-their-embassy/
StewartM
Feral Finster
I agree with everything you said (the Wehrmacht lost well over 80 %, pushing 90 %, on the Eastern Front; however the Luftwaffe lost 72 % of its personnel fighting the West). Our military knew its limitations back then. Both the US and USSR had about 13 million men in uniform, but the US had to create a large navy, a large merchant marine, and a large air arm, plus create and maintain air and naval bases all around the globe (each base needing construction workers, mechanics, medical staff, etc.). All that ate up a lot of manpower, and there’s only so much you can draft before you start hurting production, which you definitely don’t want to do.
All this meant that the US could only field a bit more than 2 million men in the army in ground combat units.
The Soviets, by contrast, didn’t need to put resources into their navy and had only a tactical air force. They were also either fighting a war on their own soil, and later near by in Eastern Europe. So they could put a much larger fraction of their 13 million men into ground combat units, having more than 6.5 million at peak strength.
So our military leadership, being so much smarter than our brain-dead leaders of today, knew that keeping the Soviets in the war was at the very least, highly desirable and probably absolutely necessary to win. Lend-Lease aid must be viewed to that lens. And moreover, the UK and Commonwealth got almost 3 times more than what the Soviets did, but you almost never hear right-wingers yap about the US ‘saving the Brits’ because everyone knew the British saved themselves in the Battle of Britain, just like the Soviets did at Moscow and Stalingrad).
But increasingly I and discovering that most of these arguments like the ones I faced are revisions of Cold War propaganda; often disseminated by programs like Radio Free Europe (the Stalin quotes, the Khrushchev quotes, the Zhukov quotes about how Lend-Lease was so necessary all ran through that filter; Zhukov denied ever having said what was attributed to him and the Radio Free Europe version of Khrushchev’s memoir’s isn’t accurate either). I also see that sources and scholars making these claims usually commit the same errors, such as not including Soviet pre-war inventory, making mis-statements about Allied deliveries that don’t match Lend-Lease records, and even simple math mistakes (??). A prime example of all three of these things is Boris Sokolov, who wrote a 1994 article claiming that Lend-Leave aviation fuel made of 58 % of Soviet supply, about twice the maximum possible percentage even considering the light Lend-Lease gasoline fractions. Sokolov’s biggest source of error? He calculated his results wrong!
Now, call me suspicious, but I can’t see how a whopping mistake like that got past the reviewers. Sokolov’s numbers are ubiquitous, you see them say on Google searches. I suspect the calculation error was deliberately done to make the Lend-Lease contribution seem to be as massive as possible.
Carborundum
If one needed an indication that the regional powers are unsure that this is going to end cleanly: https://globalnews.ca/news/11976591/saudi-arabia-nuclear-pact-us-uranium-enrichment/
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So our military leadership, being so much smarter than our brain-dead leaders of today, knew that keeping the Soviets in the war was at the very least, highly desirable and probably absolutely necessary to win. Lend-Lease aid must be viewed to that lens.
This mentality persists to this day, in my opinion, despite propaganda to the contrary. Nothing is more emblematic of this than George H.W. Bush’s Chicken Kiev speech in Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was a speech against independence. Imagine that, an American president telling another country seeking independence to give it up and accept tyranny instead.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-the-supreme-soviet-the-republic-the-ukraine-kiev-soviet-union
Yet freedom is not the same as independence. Americans will not support those who seek independence in order to replace a far-off tyranny with a local despotism. They will not aid those who promote a suicidal nationalism based upon ethnic hatred.
Let the hypocritical irony of those words resonate fully, for Poppy Bush described America precisely. America, now more than ever, gained its independence from a far-off tyranny only to replace it with a local despotism replete with suicidal nationalism and ethnic hatred and let’s not forget, Poppy Bush had no problem with Trump, the quintessential despot if ever there was one.
Poppy says independence is not necessarily freedom and that’s true, but freedom is not only a state of mind and an abstract destination requiring eternal vigilance, but it also involves a process and a large part of that process is gaining independence from tyranny.
Poppy preaches tolerance, and of course when he preaches it he is advocating tolerance with Gorby’s reforms, but he does not extend that tolerance to the various former Soviet republics seeking independence, understanding that there will be growing pains involved and yet, like a child learning to crawl and walk, tolerance and patience is necessary to allow that process to unfold and manifest with nasty falls and scrapes and bruises along the way.
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I guess it’s about time Yemen start developing its nuclear program as well. A nuke in every pot as Herbert Hoover proclaimed and also Henry IV of France.
Carborundum
Given what was unfolding at the time in that un-fondly remembered garden spot known as the former Yugoslavia, I’d say Bush’s statement had considerable merit.
different clue
In a better timeline, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics might have been able to transition into becoming a Federation of Social Democratic States. Oh well . . .
different clue
Here’s another straightforward Belle of the Ranch video called:
“Let’s talk about how the Iran war is more opposed than Vietnam and other numbers….”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpSsb2bkWEE
Here is a chance for DemSocs and semi-real Dems to run on ” Surrender with Dignity” in 2026. The war will still be going on by the 2028 election ( if there is one) and that would give the Dems and DemSocs another even better chance to run on “Surrender with Dignity” ( or some cuter better phrase if they wish).
It could also provide an opening to begin introducing concepts of American Okayness Ordinarianism to the public and see how far it can be advanced. We could even have Little Red MAOKA Hats.
MAOKA? Make America O K Again. MAOKA.
Mark Level
LAS, bringing the laffs as usual!! You’re hilarious.
Here’s a chunk of Fool’s Gold for you to savor: Christofouro on the Duran reports that, failing and flailing as the Ukraine military is, General Syrsky the fall-guy and fired; he’s replaced by someone called Drapaty, Commandante in Chief, who says “Russia is a nation whose leadership means it has no right to exist”!! Precioso!!
It’s summer here, flies always get in when the cat’s going in and out to the balcony. It’s like one of the flies deciding “the giant in this apartment has no right to exist.” It’s like a pathetic CHUD imagining he can be adopted into the Trump family and be an instant Billionaire!! It would be like me imagining I’ll soon have a date and relationship with Sydney Sweeney. (I would never go there; I’m sure she’s a bubbleheaded moron, and way out of my league. Most Celebs are demented anyway.)
Keep on dreamcasting, LAS!! Oh, and Poland’s about to send all their male Ukrainian bodies back to go straight to the front as they’re angry about the recent Nazi reburials and rhetoric. More dead Ukrainians, last one coming soon . . . must feel so heart-warming.
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Given what was unfolding at the time in that un-fondly remembered garden spot known as the former Yugoslavia, I’d say Bush’s statement had considerable merit.
Careful, Carb, you are treading on precarious ground. There are more than a few here who will argue that a genocide did not occur in the Baltics subsequent to the death of Tito and Serbia should have been left to resolve the matter of a fractured republic however it deemed fit. You have to appreciate that Parenti and Poppy Bush were on the same page, in this instance at least. Established tyrannies should never be challenged and instead reformed because without fail, what replaces them through independence inevitability is despotism of another stripe.
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Sorry, correction, I meant to type the Balkans, not the Baltics. 🤣
Regards,
Pinky Herman
Carborundum
The people who believe that spent those years (if they were alive at all) safely across the Atlantic from the carnage. They can their with a set to .
Carborundum
Hmmph. Ever done that thing where you do a bit and it doesn’t work? Insert [redacted] in a couple of places and it might be funny. Stoopid html and stooped angled brackets…