Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Iran For Dummies

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On April 23, 2026

2 Comments

~by Sean Paul Kelley

On the road to Meshed, 2006.

Between 1,000-2,000 non-Iranian born Americans visit Iran every year. In 2006 I was one of those Americans that makes up a tiny, tiny minority of Americans that have actually visited our bête noire, boogeyman, and our archest of arch foes. I was there when Iran was a founding member of the Axis of Evil. For 21 days I experienced it all first hand. Iran is more than the sum of the good, the bad, the ugly and the sublime: it is a civilization masquerading as a nation-state in a Westphalian world and deeply aware of the precarious nature of that fact.

Now that I’ve established my bona fides—you know, that I’ve actually visited Iran and also wrote my masters thesis on the ancient Persian city and one time capital of Khorasan and the Abbasid Caliphate, Merv—this endows me with certain privileges when it comes to discussing Iran. One of those privileges is the legit use of what scholars and philosopher’s call ‘argumentum ab auctoritate,’ in ‘Murican that means “argument from authority.” (And yes, I was showing off my knowledge of Latin, sue me.)

So, take it as gospel, I’m not claiming infallibility here, only that I am an OG authority.

A confession is in order: before I visited Iran in 2006 I had extremely wide and deep preconceived notions about what I would see and experience in Iran. Said notions were damn near hard-wired.

For example, I wrote in a travel essay for the San Antonio Express-News that I was completely wigged out by the picture of the Ayatollah Khomeini above the immigration line upon arrival. I shuddered, as if looking upon Old Scratch himself and thought to myself, “have I just bet my life on two-pairs with a 10 high? Fuck, I’d have been safer in Papua New Guinea.”

But I persevered through my very palpable discomfort.

By 2006 I had about 55 previously visited countries under my belt, including almost all of the ‘Stans, excepting Pakistan and Afghanistan. I had also covered most of Turkey and much of Anatolia. Also had been to Oman, the UAE and Bahrain. Oh yeah, and Azerbaijan, Iran’s confessional Shi’a confreres.

So, I had ideas and notions galore.

Piling Pelion upon Ossa (IYKYK) was a lifetime of American propaganda about Iran. And a lifetime’s worth a propaganda is hard to escape, no matter how open-minded a person you are. Yet again, I persevered and walked through my fear.

I add these far too verbose prefatory remarks because they produced a multitude of preconceived notions about Iran. Frankly, I’m too embarrassed to describe what my expectations were. I’ll simply be charitable and go with juvenile.

Esfahan

Stucco Mihrab in the Friday Mosque, 2006

No country has ever so completely and comprehensively demolished my preconceived notions of place, people and government like the Islamic Republic of Iran did. Iran detonated an ignorance obliterating nuke in my brain that to this day is difficult to describe.

With that said, I am now going to address, in often harsh and sarcastic ways, the seven most common arguments made about why Iran is such a terrible, shitty, murderous country and why we should destroy them.

Argument the First: Iran is a poor backwards country, populated by uneducated religious fanatics.

A simple four word Google search ( e.g. iran higher education statistics ) demolishes such ignorant balderdash.

Let’s do a little compare and contrast, shall we?

In Iran 61% of college age adults are enrolled in a university. The country ranks in the top 10 of STEM graduates, with a very strong emphasis on engineering. Women outnumber men in higher education enrollment standing at 60%.

College age adults enrolled in university vary between 41 and 43% of the population in the Home of the Brave. The United States also, like Iran, ranks in the top 10 of STEM graduates. But there is a caveat: the large, but presently shrinking, presence of foreign students majoring in STEM attending American universities. Moreover, in the United States, women outnumber men on college campuses by a 10% margin (44% vs. 34% for men).

Iranians uneducated?

Not so much.

I found, without exception, the Iranians I engaged in conversation to be not only well-versed with contemporary history and issues—great at geography too, one happily recited the state capital of Missouri (how many of you know it? And be honest)—and equally well-versed in their own 3500 years of history.

But it wasn’t just the depth of knowledge they had of their own history, but the sophisticated knowledge of the philosophy undergirding the European Enlightenment right up to Post-Modernity and the deleterious nature of Neo-liberalism.

Ornament at Persepolis, 2006

I had a conversation with a Hojatoleslam (a clergyman one level below an Ayatollah) that meandered from John Locke, Adam Smith to Sarte, ibn Sina, al-Ghazali, back to Habermas, Schopenhauer and Godamer. We rounded off the conversation with a discussion of international relations, and he cited Hans Morganthau and Henry Kissinger’s PhD doctoral dissertation.

Here was no religious fanatic, clergy or not; no AK-47 waving, screaming zealot; this human was erudite, witty and, dare I say, quite urbane. Not an adjective many Americans would associate with a member of the Shi’a clergy, no?

The clergy of Iran are very well educated in all matters secular. They are so for a very good reason, too. And no, they don’t all attend meddressehs so as to memorize the Quran, although they are capable of delivering a masterclass of Quranic exegesis when called upon. And if you don’t know what the word exegesis means go stick your head in a Cuisinart. You simply don’t have the intellectual firepower to have this conversation.

Reason being for aforesaid education: these men are being groomed to lead a modern nation state. And let me stress the word modern. Iran as a nation is fully reconciled with all the varied and sundry accoutrements of modernity. Is it a reconciliation that would make Western Civilization happy? Most certainly not. But it ain’t our country. We profess, ad nauseum, to honor and protect self-rule and self-determination in theory. In fact: fuck no we don’t. But I digress . . .

Importantly, the revolution in 1979 is used as a constant cudgel and brickbat in Western media accounts as that which led Iran down the shit hole to backwardsdom, like Afghanistan, or Saudi Arabia. This is a seriously tragic misconception that I’ll address another time. Suffice it to say that the Iranian revolution was about reconciling Iran’s deep and rich past with modernity and all its complications, which is exactly what happened.

Argument the Second: but Iran is repressive country that imprisons so many . . .

. . . the next person who makes this wildly inaccurate assertion will have a nuke dropped in their crotch.

You want to talk repression, okay, let’s compare and contrast one more time.

Here, in the land of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness between 542-698 per 100,000 people are imprisoned, I won’t even bother addressing how racist our prison policies are. The number for Iran is half that. Yes, go google it before your pajamas rot. I repeat: half as many, 287-294 per 100,000 in prison.

Are some of them political prisoners? You bet they are, I carry no man’s water. But the reality of home is that there are American political prisoners also, although most that are persecuted escape to exile, eg. Ed Snowden.

And before you open your mouth and say some more stupid shit, let me offer you five words: Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib.

As Grandpa Bruce, a cowboy’s cowboy, used to yell at someone doing something stupid, “stop milking the bull!”

Argument the Third: Iran treats women like crap; remember they killed that girl who was protesting!

This is such a childish argument it beggars belief. It also deprives the young woman we’re discussing of her second most precious resource: her agency. First being time, obviously.

I will now admonish the children in the room, children who should be seen and not heard.

The adults are talking so Daddy will now spank.

Mahsa Amini was protesting and her protesting tragically ended in her death.

How many of us will see such noble ends emerge phoenix-like from such sacrifice?

That she died for her beliefs is honorable and worthy of my respect and veneration. What is unworthy of the woman is using her to score propaganda points. And yes, I’m aware of the hypocrisy of what I just wrote. It’s my essay. Write your own in opposition if you must. But be damned sure you’ve been to Iran before you do.

I digress . . . again. Guan Yin!

But it was the effects of her death that were most profound—and I’d hazard that while unhappy she had to die, she might find some measure of solace in the climate of change her death created. Fact is, her death had and has had profound effects on Iran. Her death galvanized hundreds of thousands of Iranian women in a way the regime could no longer ignore. And her death led to significant change in Iran’s enforcement and public perception of hijab.

For example: since 2022 many women in larger cities go without a head scarf. There is no need for me to provide you with a link. All you have to do is Google it. Or Tik-Tok it. It’s there to be found. I guaran-damn-tee-it!

I value intellectual honesty so it’s important to note that it is still illegal for women to go without.

But ask yourself, what unjust American law have you, or are you, willing to break, risking fines, perhaps prison, because it’s an unjust law? That’s a tough ask, ain’t it?

If you’re unwilling to walk and chew gum at the same time, we’ll never agree on a damn thing. So, as I am nothing if not considerate, and have no interest in wasting your time, I advise you to stop reading this. It’s only going to get worse for you.

The second most beautiful mosque in the world.

Argument the Fourth: they mowed down so many protestors who wanted a new . . .

. . . I’m going to throw the next person who shouts this slogan in an industrial-sized microwave oven, set it on defrost, and thaw out their brain.

Protestors risk their lives in any and every country the protest in. Seriously, you read a history book lately? How many African-Americans were slaughtered during our Civil Rights Movement? How long did it take? Still ongoing in reality.

And what about those middle-class white kids gunned down at Kent State over Vietnam?

Protestors die. It happens. Any protestor unaware of the potential for death is a fool. Even successful revolutions eat their own children. So, please, check yourself and that moral high horse you’re on at the door—so sorry to mix metaphors—because a.) that fucker’s dead and b.) it smells very bad.

Argument the Fifth: but they are divided. So many Iranians hate the regime.

Hell’s half-acre, that’s about as dumb as asserting Jessica Simpson has a PhD in Astrophysics.

A query if I may: as a percentage of the population, what percent of Americans hate their ruling regime?

I’d wager it’s closing in on 45%. What say you?

Now, close your eyes and imagine the president is a female Democrat? What’s the percentage now?

Gotcha, didn’t I?

Second, let me guess: you think bombing the Iranians will divide them, shatter the state apparatus like we did in Iraq and let loose chaos, perhaps? Aside from your utter lack of any semblance of morality and/or ethics—the strategic stupidity on display is galactic in size.

The idea that our efforts will degrade support for the regime to such a degree that the people stab it with their steely knives and really kill the beast this time (apologies to Don Henley) is barely worthy of a first grader.

But I still gotta ask: we’re six weeks into the war. How’s that idea working out?

I’ll give you a hint. Actually, I’d rather slap you upside the head like Gibbs would Tony on NCIS but I can’t reach you through wi-fi. I’m just not able to spontaneously disembody myself and reembody at will.

Sublime.

So, the hint comes as a question.

What happens when you bomb elementary schools, killing hundreds of little kids?

Peeps in any nation be getting unified.

Why?

Well, anger towards an outsider—the other—is a universal, time-tested human unifier.

And Iranians are pissed and more unified than ever.

Argument the Sixth: but, but, Iran is an Islamic religious tyranny!

Attend: the constitution of the Islamic Republic mandates two seats in parliament be held by Christians.

Feeling dumb now, aren’t you?

This will make you feel superhumanly dumber: one seat is mandated for Persian Jews.

You read that right: JEWS.

If you don’t believe me, google it.

Final Argument: but you can’t drink alcohol!

Who gives a shit about alcohol when opium is everywhere. Trust me on this.

Losing Patience With Moral & Intellectual Morons

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On April 22, 2026

9 Comments

Let me spell this out clearly: you can love someone and still hold them to account, including sending them to prison or even executing them. You can refuse to rape and torture and still put criminals in prison. You can treat people well and know that doing so brings out the best in most people, and that most people rise to meet your expectations while noting that it doesn’t work on everyone.

People who are so lost to cynicism that can no longer see the good, can no longer feel compassion for those they consider evil, and who think the only way to defeat evil is to do evil, are lost, stupid and as dangerous as the evil they think they’re fighting.

People who think violence or coercion are never justified (as opposed to being rarely justified), are also stupid, and allow much evil to be born or persist.

There are positions between these two extremes. This is not a binary.

Stop being fools.

Germany Wants to Double Down on Failed Policies

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On April 21, 2026

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The neoliberal era, which is dying but not yet dead, has been extremely tiresome for anyone with an IQ higher than a tomato, and even a scintilla of intellectual honesty.

Witness the current German chancellor, Merz, intent on doubling down on the same policies which have failed to work for generations:

“With 450 million consumers, we are already larger than the United States. We must break free from what is holding us back. We are being slowed down by labor costs, energy prices, taxes, and social contributions. We must push through reforms, and overcome resistance.”

My bolding, of course.

So, let’s demolish this. We’ll start with productivity versus corporate tax rates:

 

So, the lower the tax rate, the lower the productivity increase (and thus competitiveness.) This is correlation, not causation, but it does clearly indicate that lowering corporate tax rates doesn’t automatically increase productivity. Looking that this table, you’d assume the opposite.

What actually matters is how much of profits are kept inside the company and used for investment in the business. High tax rates on non retained earnings, combined with high tax rates on dividends and executive income encourage firms to reinvest rather than disburse. The neoliberal story is exactly wrong: high tax rates on corporations and high progressive taxes on income and wealth encourage growth. You want ordinary people to pay to lower taxes, so they buy products, and you want high income people to pay high taxes so they don’t take wealth out of the companies they own and run, but rather insist those companies re-invest.

Now let’s look at wages:

There are some ups and downs, but generally speaking during the earlier periods wages increase at a higher percentage of productivity.

Now there are two important recent breakpoints. First is the tax changes of 2000: you’ll notice that wage increases and productivity increases from 2000 to 2020 are abysmal. Corporate tax rates were dropped from 40% to 25%: if neoliberalism worked, then reduced taxes should have led to more investment, instead it lead to more stock buybacks and more executive compensation, in part, because at the same tiem they changed tax laws in ways that made stock buybacks and stock options for executives far less taxed.

So the freed up money, instead of going to reinvestment, went to shareholders and executives.

They also made it so that investments in other countries, not Germany, were taxed less than investment in Germany.

I want to say that the sheer stupid is breathtaking, but of course, this wasn’t done to improve Germany productivity and ordinary people’s wages, it was done to make the rich in Germany even richer.

The actual strategy which works, if anyone cares, is high corporate taxation, with tax relief if money is spent inside Germany to improve a company’s productivity: if it’s actually reinvested.

So the tax changes of 2000 hurt productivity and hurt wages and made Germany’s rich even richer. Quelle surprise.

Now let’s take a look at what happened post 2020 – a radical change. This is German de-industrialization. There’s a massive inflation shock, both from increased energy prices due the Ukraine war and pipeline destruction, plus inflation from Covid and corporate price gouging. Wages rise because they have to: after years of slowing wage increases, Germans need enough money to pay for housing and food. Corporations have to pay more or people won’t work.

Productivity actually DROPS. This is the energy shock that has caused so much German industry to relocate out of the country or to shut down entirely. It’s not just that China has advantages, it’s that Germany shot itself itself in the foot going along with anti-Russian energy sanctions and not fixing the pipelines.

Merz is in a panic. His actual constituents, Germany’s rich (he doesn’t give a damn about ordinary people) are in trouble. So his idea is to reduce taxes and force down wages.

Never improved Germany’s economy in the past, of course, quite the opposite.

So what will happen if he reduces corporate taxes? They’ll move industry out of the country faster because he hasn’t dealt with energy prices. (He mentions them, but he has no plan.) Reducing individual taxes might allow for decreased wages, or at least decreased wage increases, but if German companies aren’t competitive with Chinese companies, any extra consumer spending from reduced taxes will flood out of the country, and in the long term reduced wages means less potential domestic income.

Again:

Germany companies won’t invest more in Germany, they’ll invest more outside of Germany, including in China, if taxes are reduced without any legal changes to force reinvestment in Germany.

The actual solution is to force reinvestment in Germany thru tax changes that make foreign investment less profitable, and targeted tariffs, subsidies and industrial policy to make German goods more competitive.

Oh, and to end the Ukraine war, fix the pipelines and get energy costs down, though that may no longer be possible, as Putin has indicated Russia is no longer interested in long term energy deals with a Europe who hates Russia.

There is no cheap source of hydrocarbons any more and that situation is just going to get worse, even leaving aside the shock from the Iranian war. So Germany’s ultra-double-fucked. They need to figure out how to build nuclear fast and cheap and double down on renewables, primarily solar and perhaps tidal (the exact opposite of what right wing fools want.)

There’s no easy way out. Reducing taxes without restructuring taxes to force domestic investment will accelerate de-industrialization. Lower taxes on individuals might help lower wages somewhat, but will damage the German state’s fiscal ability at a time when massive public investment in energy is required.

Neoliberalism failed to do anything but make the rich, richer. If Merz happened to want to actually rescue Germany from de-industrialization he’d have to raise corporate taxes and change taxation and compensation rules to force reinvestment in Germany, while massively increasing public spending on energy. Any corporation which won’t reinvest needs to be taxed into the ground, and that money should be used for the energy build-out.

Taxes on the rich, including a wealth tax, should be increased. (No, they aren’t leaving the country in large numbers. Where would they go? China won’t take them if they can’t bring their money with them, and maybe not even then. America is no longer attractive, and the rest of Europe is doing badly too.)

In general, laws need to force Germany corporations and rich to invest in Germany, and make it so they can’t move their resources out of Germany. (Or perhaps not out of Europe.) None of this is ideologically, and thus politically, possible.

Merz won’t fix anything. Instead he’ll make everything worse. If the German hard right gets in power they might cut a deal with Russia, and that would help somewhat, but they won’t fix anything fundamental either.

A complete revision in economic ideology, of the same magnitude as the New Deal is required, and Merz and the opposition parties are incapable of that.

Germany, and Europe, will continue an inexorable decline.

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Russo-Ukraine War: Strategic Pause

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On April 20, 2026

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~by Sean Paul Kelley

Amidst the chaos, propaganda, and war porn that is our attack on Iran news of the Russo-Ukrainian war has been hard to come by. One thing is certainly clear after my deep dive into recent developments along the front is that there is a strategic pause on the part of Russia and to a lesser degree that with the Ukraine.

First, the lines have not moved much in the last few months. There are a few reasons for this. One is the Russians are having a tricky time consolidating some of their gains. The reasons for this are two fold: one is it it’s the mud season. It’s rainy and it’s thawing and that is not a good combination for an offensive mechanized or infantry. And two, when your opponent knows the lay of the land better than you do – they are after all fighting in the Ukraine – they take advantage of it. The Ukrainians have done just that.

There’s a bigger reason for the moderate successes that the Ukrainians are having. The Ukraine has ceased launching large offensives– mostly because they don’t have large scale units to launch large offensives with any longer, those units have been attrited by the Russians. The AFU underwent a serious reorganization on operational levels-there are now a handful of semiautonomous Corps running the war. No longer being micromanaged from Kiev makes for quicker decision making and faster counter-attacks.

Considering the Ukrainians know the lay of the land, their drone production has either apparently grown a bit, or it stayed steady because the drone wall has kept the Russians from concentrating their forces. If you can’t concentrate your forces, you can’t pursue a serious offensive. Then again it is the mud season so the Russians might just be consolidating their lines and waiting till things dry up to bring up reinforcements.

As History legends noted in his Q&A yesterday, Russian columns are identified sometimes 10 klicks from the front and the drones descend on them and wreak havoc. Moreover, the Russians had seen a great deal of success sending 6 to 8 men teams to assault Ukrainian positions, but this success has been transitory as of late as the Russians have been sending in teams of 3 to 5 men only to get obliterated by drones. The Ukrainians are making excellent use of first person, drones, and other drones as well.

This aids the Ukrainian small scale counter-attacks. This is smart from the point of view of the Ukrainians having less soldiers. And as I said before they know the lay of the land and they can use the geography to their advantage, mud thaw and all.

The Russians don’t yet have an answer to the wall of drones, but I have heard some rumors that the Russians have developed an FPV drone operated with a fiber optic cable that is automatically reeled out and reeled in like an open face fishing rod. I would certainly like to see one of those because that’s a pretty clever innovation. It would literally be like fishing. You just don’t want to get tangled up in brushes or trees on a tree line, which is where most of the individual soldiers are to be found.

The Russian army, smaller than official Russian claims, but larger by far than that of the Ukraine needs to find an answer to this. I’m extrapolating from some of Legends comments here but it seems to me the Russian answer to the drone wall, which for all intents and purposes equates to short range air superiority, is to find a way to dominate air space between the lines, No Man’s Land, which now stretches some 10 kilometers in places. But that’s a tech issue, not a man power issue, which Russia might be facing in the near future. It makes one wonder if a Russian version of the A-10 Warthog might accomplish under such circumstances? But I digress . . .

Russian official pronouncements say they are recruiting 25,00 to 30,000 soldiers a month. If they were doing that they would have an army of 700,000 men plus on the front lines in the Ukraine. With that many soldiers they could walk over the Ukrainians. But that isn’t the case.

Adjacent to Russian recruits are casualties. Russian KIAs are much less than the Ukraine claims. The most recent transfer of dead bodies between the Ukraine and Russia handled by the Red Cross was 1000 Ukrainian bodies to 41 Russians. That’s a KIA ratio of almost 25 to 1. This occurred on April 9. These numbers, if this ratio holds up, are absolutely surreal. How the Ukraine can continue to fight is a question for historians 100 years hence.

That said on January 29 of this year 1000 bodies were returned to the Ukraine and 38 were returned to Russia. Between December 19 and the 20th of 2055, 1003 bodies were returned to the Ukraine and 26 were returned to Russia. In June 2005 under the auspices of the Istanbul Deal up to 6000 bodies were returned to the Ukraine none were reported to have been returned to Russia.

I’m not accusing the Red Cross of accounting fraud, but the numbers for Russian KIAs have to be larger. If the 41 bodies transferred in January are the result of the capture of Pokrovsk then damn, that’s simply generalship on a galactic level. Alas, those numbers won’t hold up, but if they did that means we’re looking at a ratio of about 9000 Ukrainian KIA to 104 Russian KIA. My guess is it is more like the 12-1 range based on personal observations and conversations with Russians in Russia.

In reality, the Russians are doing a better job of collecting their dead and wounded (and those of their foes). Moreover, as Ian mentioned to me, “doing a better job of collecting dead implies control of the ground where the casualties happen.” That does not bode well for the Ukraine. I hate to make assumptions, but that’s my bet. And they’re using the Red Cross numbers to score propaganda points.

Regardless, I don’t expect to see much movement either way on the front lines– except for a few skirmishes here and there – until the mud season dries up and summer arrives. Then Russia will begin it’s assault on the big banana.

 

Did Gen. Caine Defy A Presidential Order Saturday Night and Deny Trump the Nuclear Codes?

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On April 20, 2026

14 Comments

~by Sean Paul Kelley

Kerry Burgess on X is reporting this: “General Caine cited Article 92 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice on Saturday night, as he refused Trumps order to execute a nuclear strike on Iran.”

Gen. Caine is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and therefore not in the direct chain of command. Would Trump even know that? Probably not.

But this story is gaining traction, from Sky News, the Mirror, and the Daily Express.

I’m speechless.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 19, 2026

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On April 19, 2026

20 Comments

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 19, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

 

War

House rejects resolution to end U.S. war with Iran by one vote

[Drop Site News, April 17, 2026]

The Republican-controlled House voted 213–214 on Thursday to defeat a resolution directing President Donald Trump to withdraw U.S. armed forces from hostilities against Iran, one day after the Senate rejected a similar measure 52–47. Only one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.), broke with his party to support the measure. One Democrat, Rep. Jared Golden (Maine) voted against it; Rep. Warren Davidson (Ohio), who had previously voted to end the war, voted present. The resolution, introduced by Rep. Gregory Meeks (N.Y.), would have required congressional authorization to continue military operations under the War Powers Resolution.

 

The Iran war’s fertilizer shock is hammering American farmers, and 70% can’t afford what they need for this year’s growing season

[Fortune, via Naked Capitalism 04-17-2025]

 

Top oil companies pocketed $30 million per hour in war profits during first month of Iran conflict

[Drop Site News, April 16, 2026]

The world’s top 100 oil and gas companies earned more than $30 million every hour in windfall profits during the first month of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, generating an estimated $23 billion in excess earnings in March alone as oil averaged $100 a barrel, according to analysis by Global Witness using Rystad Energy data reported exclusively by the Guardian. Saudi Aramco stands to make an estimated $25.5 billion in war profits in 2026 if the $100 price holds, while ExxonMobil is on track for $11 billion, Chevron $9.2 billion, and Shell $6.8 billion—with three Russian state-linked companies, Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil, projected to collect a combined $23.9 billion, boosting Vladimir Putin’s war chest for the conflict in Ukraine.

 

Iran used Chinese satellite to monitor and target U.S. bases, leaked documents show

[Drop Site News, April 16, 2026]

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force acquired a Chinese spy satellite in late 2024 that it used to monitor and help target U.S. military bases across the Middle East during the war, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, citing leaked Iranian military documents confirmed by Fox News. The IRGC purchased the TEE-01B satellite from Chinese company Earth Eye Co for roughly $36.6 million, paid in renminbi, according to the report. Time-stamped coordinate lists, satellite imagery, and orbital analysis show Iranian commanders used the satellite to surveil Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 13, 14, and 15—the same days President Donald Trump confirmed U.S. aircraft at the base had been struck—as well as Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, the U.S. Fifth Fleet naval base in Bahrain, and Erbil airport in Iraq around the time of IRGC-claimed strikes on those facilities. China’s Foreign Ministry denied the report, calling it “not true.”

 

How Much Has the War in Iran Depleted the U.S. Missile Supply?

Garrett M. Graff, April 14, 2026

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

 

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025

 

Caught in the Crackdown: As Arrests at Anti-ICE Protests Piled Up, Prosecutions Crumbled

A.C. Thompson [ProPublica] and FRONTLINE, and Gabrielle Schonder [FRONTLINE], April 14, 2026

  • Protesters Detained: ProPublica and FRONTLINE found more than 300 people who were arrested during immigration sweeps and accused of crimes like assaulting or interfering with law enforcement.
  • Cases Collapse Under Scrutiny: Over and over, cases against protesters fell apart, often because statements made by the arresting officers were debunked by video footage.
  • Chilling Effect: Experts said arrests, even without convictions, can quash dissent. “I don’t want to be assaulted again. I don’t want to wind up back in federal prison,” a protester said.

 

 

DOJ fires US immigration judges who ruled for pro-Palestine activists

[Jurist News, via Naked Capitalism 04-16-2025]

 

 

Luigi-Inspired Arsonist Threatened “Our Way of Life,” Feds Say

Ken Klippenstein [via Naked Capitalism 04-15-2025]

 

 

 

Oligarchy

The Shocking Secrets of Madison Square Garden’s Surveillance Machine

[Wired, via The Big Picture, April 18, 2026]

Famously vengeful Knicks owner Jim Dolan has long spied on people at his iconic arenas. He has turned MSG into one of the most aggressive private facial-recognition operations in the country, using it to ban critics and lawyers at the door. Private-sector dystopia that most fans never see coming.

[TW: As the classic thinkers of civic republicanism warned, the morbidly rich suffer extreme psychological damage because they lose the capacity for self-discipline, destroying any basis for one of the key components of civic virtue. This happens because the morbidly rich can afford to surround themselves with sycophants who are unwilling to call out the excesses the morbidly rich indulge in. This is why Locke’s concept of venerating private property must be forcefully opposed by the civic republican principles of General Welfare and the civic virtue of subordinating private interest to the public good. The preservation of a republic requires that the absence of civic virtue among the most powerful, the morbidly rich, must be countered by the extension of the Constitutional guarantees of individual liberty to the states (which conservatives and the (anti)Republican Party have been and are now contesting), AND private actors such as corporations and the morbidly rich.]

 

 

Billionaire Adelson Pours $40 Million To Back GOP—Soros Gives $50 Million To His Democrat PAC

[Forbes, via Naked Capitalism 04-17-2025]

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Open Thread

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On April 18, 2026

30 Comments

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Brief Strait Of Hormuz Update

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On April 18, 2026

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End of Negotiations (update):

IRNA News Agency reports that Iran will not join a second round of negotiations in Islamabad, which Trump claimed would take place tomorrow, due to the the US’s excessive demands, shifting positions and the ongoing naval blockade, which it views as a violation of the ceasefire.

After the Lebanon ceasefire, Iran decided to open the Strait. Trump then said the blockade of Iranian ports would continue.

And:

Update:

Iran has not agreed to a new round of talks with the U.S., citing pressure and “unreasonable demands,” and says negotiations will only continue if those stop, with the message conveyed via Pakistan (Tasnim).

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