The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Electoral Politics Page 22 of 31

Is Sanders Done?

Hilary won Super Tuesday in 2008.

Bernie’s best states are still to come. The worst sign is the loss of Massachusetts, but the race is not over yet.

I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but I’ve always felt that Warren was overrated, and I feel that her refusal to endorse a candidate vindicates that view. She may have stayed viable with Clinton as a result, but she will get only scraps on financial reform from Clinton.

The constant refusal of people and groups (like unions endorsing Clinton) to get behind and work for candidates who would actually act on their behalf is one of the reasons that one can often only shrug at what is happening in America. Clearly, based on actions, not words, this is what too many Americans want.


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Super Tuesday—Clinton and Trump Win as Expected

Feel free to use this as a thread to discuss the results. Remember that Sanders polls best in blue states, not red states. Trump will extend his lead, but by how much matters, because if he doesn’t wind up with a majority of delegates, the other candidates may well band against him to choose someone else.

Update: The non-super-delegate delegate count after Super Tuesday is 543 for Clinton, and 349 for Sanders. On the Republican side Trump has 285, Cruz 161, Rubio 87, Kasich 25, and Carson 8.

Trump Wins in Nevada

Donald TrumpNot precisely a surprise, or anything. Barring an airplane accident, or some such, he’s the nominee.

Most polls show him winning against Clinton (and losing against Sanders).

Get used to the idea of President Trump, it is your very possible future. If he improves the economy (quite possible, politicians and central bankers have refused to do all the obvious things to improve it), he could be your President for quite some time.


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Clinton and Trump Win

Donald TrumpMargin is about 4 percent for Hillary. Trump’s victory is crushing.

Sanders won the majority of Hispanics, but African Americans broke hard for Clinton.

It seems unlikely that Sanders will win South Carolina, given the make-up of its primary voters.

Much of this depends upon whether Bernie’s momentum in the polls continues. African Americans are an important constituency, but if he can extend his numbers with Hispanics and women, he’ll be in good shape.


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As for Trump, I don’t see a scenario that doesn’t involve his health, where he isn’t the Republican presidential candidate.

If he runs against Clinton, a lot of Sanders working class voters are going to vote for him, not Clinton, but his bashing of minorities may cost him the election. Unlike mainstream pundits, I am not 100 percent certain of that: After all, mainstream pundits also said there was no way Trump could win a primary.

(Update: I wasn’t going to comment on Jeb dropping out since he’s been such a non-factor, but I think it’s worth noting that he did speak out against Trump’s demonization of Hispanics and his anti-Muslim ban. That said, the fact that Trump said George Bush Jr. lied the US into Iraq and still won this primary is revealing.)

Can Clinton Win Using Super-Delegates?

Hilary Clinton Secretary of State Portrait

Hilary Clinton Secretary of State Portrait

Democratic party super-delegates are unelected officials, Congressmembers, and DNC members.

They are overwhelmingly in favor of Clinton. There are 712 of them, 2,382 delegates are required to win.

Super-delegates were put in place exactly and precisely to stop a candidate like Sanders, who has little to no institutional support. (Remember, Obama did have plenty of insider support.)

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, head of the DNC, said “Superdelegates exist really to make sure that party leaders and elected officials don’t have to be in a position where they are running against grass-roots activists.”

So, if Sanders wins the majority of elected primary delegates, but Clinton has enough super-delegate support to win, will she do it?

Of course.


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I have no doubt that Clinton would. She has wanted to be President for so long, and has run her campaign as a coronation. She feels entitled to it, and seems genuinely convinced that she would be a better President–and that people who vote for Sanders are fools.

So the real question is whether superdelegates pledged to Clinton would actually vote for her if it meant overturning the Democratic will of the party.

To do so would be disastrous. I suspect it would cost Clinton and Democrats the election. I’m not American, but if I were, I certainly would not vote for Clinton in such a situation. I think most of the young people who are strongly for Clinton wouldn’t either.

The effects would ripple forwards in time, as well, proving to youngsters that the game is rigged, and that Democrats can’t be trusted.

So many party insiders owe Clinton everything. Those who don’t are mostly aligned with Obama, who has appeared to back Clinton so far. Loyalty means a great deal to these people, it is the liquid coin of insider party politics.

I suspect they would not be so foolish as to throw the primary to Clinton, but it’s not inconceivable. I imagine the plan would be to use Scalia’s empty Supreme Court as blackmail. The Court has always been their go-to “you-have-no-choice but-to-vote-for-us-even-though-we-suck” issue.

I’d guess that super-delegates won’t be an issue in the end. They’ll go where the elected delegates are, or the issue will be made moot by Clinton winning or Bernie crushing her.

But there’s a huge landmine here, and it’s one that could damage the Democratic party for decades.

It’s also ethically despicable, in my opinion, but then that phrase describes everything about Schultz and other insiders who feel they run a political party for their own benefit, and not that of the country.

First National Poll Shows Bernie Up Over Clinton

Sanders-021507-18335- 0004

Sanders-021507-18335- 0004

Fourty-seven to fourty-four. Within the margin of error, but given the very well established trend, I’m inclined to believe it.

Clinton went down fighting against Obama (which I admired), and I’m sure she’ll go down fighting against Bernie, but at this point, absent some shocking news, I think she’s done.

I really don’t understand Clinton’s campaign. She seemed to feel so entitled to people’s votes that she didn’t even bother to pander and lie. No you can’t have a $15 minimum wage, universal health care, free tuition, Glass-Steagall, or most other things.

I’m glad she told the truth, mind you, but it’s still strange to see someone so blind to political realities.


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Clinton has run almost entirely on her biography, on being “capable,” without seeming to understand that her biography includes a lot of actions that primary voters might find objectionable.

She has assumed that women would vote for her, in effect, because she is a woman, and that minorities would stay massively in her column.

Right now only African Americans are holding steady for her; the numbers on virtually every other group are breaking for Bernie.

This is going to get super-ugly, because Clinton can’t win based on who she is, or on her platform, so she’s going to have to fling every piece of mud she can find and hope that something sticks.

She can’t even run on being more electable, because polls are increasingly showing Bernie does better against Cruz or Trump. He even does better than her in a three-way competition with Bloomberg.

This is going to be the most interesting election season of my life. I suppose it already is. Get out the popcorn, and roast your weenies. We may be roasting on fires in the antechamber of Hell, depending on who wins, but at least it’s fascinating.

Trump Says He Would Put a 35 Percent Tax on Goods from Mexico

That would be illegal under NAFTA, and long odds under the WTO. Certainly under TPP, if it’s in force then.

Someone should straight up ask Trump if he’s willing to leave those treaties.

If he is, and the Dem candidate is not, he will win the election.


(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year.  If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)


Once more, Trump is a nativist populist. If he wasn’t so racist and for torture, I’d be pushing him hard. As it is, he’s beyond the pale, but a lot of working and middle class folks aren’t going to give a damn.

Bernie Sanders is now even with Clinton in Reuters Tracking Poll

44.6 for Hillary. 44.3 for Bernie. Statistical dead heat.

More interesting is that a month ago Sanders was at 30.7% vs. Clinton’s 50.3%.

Internals show men do more go for Bernie.  Under 30s go massively for Bernie, women are only slightly for Clinton.  Blacks are -20 for Bernie, so that’s a major challenge for him.

But this is why Clinton’s campaign is lashing out.  Bernie is now officially a threat

I agree with Pachacutec that Bernie looks stronger in a general than Clinton.  The more people hear of his message, the more they like it, and Clinton has high fixed negatives.

Trump vs. Sanders. Socialist v. Nativist Populist,  looks likely.


(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year.  If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

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