The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Electoral Politics Page 21 of 30

Trump Wins, Sanders Wins Michigan

Most of Detroit hasn’t reported in and Detroit leans heavily Clinton. Even so, this is amazing; polls were showing Bernie down 20 percent to Clinton.

I’m assuming this is based on trade. “Free” trade has destroyed Michigan.

As for Trump, well, no surprise.

Update: Note that a win here only keeps Bernie in the running. He needs to start defeating Clinton by significant margins in order to win. Still, I couldn’t see how Bernie could win if he couldn’t win a state like Michigan, which is almost tailor-made for his message, so this is good news. A couple polls off by 20 percent in his favor in big states and Bernie could still pull it out.

Second Update: Looks like a win for Bernie in Michigan, but note that Clinton won Mississippi with 86 percent. In other words, she won the most delegates today. Bernie MUST start knocking some out of the park soon.

African Americans voted 30 percent for Sanders–that’s his best showing yet.

19- 30-year olds showed up as much as retirees. Can’t remember the last time that happened.

Who is the Feminist Candidate?

This sort of thing is why feminists keep losing effective abortion access.

Abortion

And by “this sort of thing” I mean preferring the “identity” candidate over the one whose policies are actually good for the group in question.

“She is one of us, so she must be better for us.”

No.


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Trump Is a Consistent Right-Wing, Nativist Populist

Donald TrumpAre they trying to convince people to vote for him?

So, yes, a letter signed by NeoCons talking about what a disaster Trump would be.

I mean, it’s grand that they are against torture now, and I prefer the stance that demonizing Muslims is bad, ‘kay, but these are the the people who lied the US into the Iraq war and caused the rise of ISIL (among other things).

As Crowley writes:

Donald Trump calls the Iraq War a lie-fueled fiasco, admires Vladimir Putin and says he would be a “neutral” arbiter between Israel and the Palestinians.

So—cooling the conflicts between the US and Russia, acknowledging the truth about Iraq, and not taking Israel’s side.

Trump mixes up ideological certainties for elites. He’s not consistent with any elite consensus, he’s all over the place. Boot Muslims out, but be neutral between Israel and Palestinians?


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This is nativism. America is for Americans, and Americans aren’t Muslim. The constitution may disagree, but nativist sentiment agrees.

The Neocons bewail Trump saying he’d charge Japan for protection (which I disagree with), and while that’s inconsistent with elite ideology, it is consistent with nativism. Japan’s problems with its neighbours, including North Korea, are not America’s problems. Why should America protect them, or anyone else, if America isn’t receiving anything for it?

(As Japan, I’d negotiate based on use of the Okinawa base, and so on. Japan actually gives the US a lot already.)

Trump is not inconsistent. He is a populist nativist, and his policies track that pretty well. Because he is right-wing, he wants lower taxes on “good rich” (but not hedge funds), but populism has always been able to be both right- and left-wing.

The other populist in the race is Sanders. Note that while Sanders believes in a road to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and certainly wouldn’t be kicking large numbers out, Sanders voted against the 2007 immigration bill because it would have expanded guest-workers by 200K.

Current Americans, citizens or not, come first for Sanders. He’s not a nativist, but he is a populist.

 

 

Is Sanders Done?

Hilary won Super Tuesday in 2008.

Bernie’s best states are still to come. The worst sign is the loss of Massachusetts, but the race is not over yet.

I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but I’ve always felt that Warren was overrated, and I feel that her refusal to endorse a candidate vindicates that view. She may have stayed viable with Clinton as a result, but she will get only scraps on financial reform from Clinton.

The constant refusal of people and groups (like unions endorsing Clinton) to get behind and work for candidates who would actually act on their behalf is one of the reasons that one can often only shrug at what is happening in America. Clearly, based on actions, not words, this is what too many Americans want.


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Super Tuesday—Clinton and Trump Win as Expected

Feel free to use this as a thread to discuss the results. Remember that Sanders polls best in blue states, not red states. Trump will extend his lead, but by how much matters, because if he doesn’t wind up with a majority of delegates, the other candidates may well band against him to choose someone else.

Update: The non-super-delegate delegate count after Super Tuesday is 543 for Clinton, and 349 for Sanders. On the Republican side Trump has 285, Cruz 161, Rubio 87, Kasich 25, and Carson 8.

Trump Wins in Nevada

Donald TrumpNot precisely a surprise, or anything. Barring an airplane accident, or some such, he’s the nominee.

Most polls show him winning against Clinton (and losing against Sanders).

Get used to the idea of President Trump, it is your very possible future. If he improves the economy (quite possible, politicians and central bankers have refused to do all the obvious things to improve it), he could be your President for quite some time.


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Clinton and Trump Win

Donald TrumpMargin is about 4 percent for Hillary. Trump’s victory is crushing.

Sanders won the majority of Hispanics, but African Americans broke hard for Clinton.

It seems unlikely that Sanders will win South Carolina, given the make-up of its primary voters.

Much of this depends upon whether Bernie’s momentum in the polls continues. African Americans are an important constituency, but if he can extend his numbers with Hispanics and women, he’ll be in good shape.


(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)


As for Trump, I don’t see a scenario that doesn’t involve his health, where he isn’t the Republican presidential candidate.

If he runs against Clinton, a lot of Sanders working class voters are going to vote for him, not Clinton, but his bashing of minorities may cost him the election. Unlike mainstream pundits, I am not 100 percent certain of that: After all, mainstream pundits also said there was no way Trump could win a primary.

(Update: I wasn’t going to comment on Jeb dropping out since he’s been such a non-factor, but I think it’s worth noting that he did speak out against Trump’s demonization of Hispanics and his anti-Muslim ban. That said, the fact that Trump said George Bush Jr. lied the US into Iraq and still won this primary is revealing.)

Can Clinton Win Using Super-Delegates?

Hilary Clinton Secretary of State Portrait

Hilary Clinton Secretary of State Portrait

Democratic party super-delegates are unelected officials, Congressmembers, and DNC members.

They are overwhelmingly in favor of Clinton. There are 712 of them, 2,382 delegates are required to win.

Super-delegates were put in place exactly and precisely to stop a candidate like Sanders, who has little to no institutional support. (Remember, Obama did have plenty of insider support.)

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, head of the DNC, said “Superdelegates exist really to make sure that party leaders and elected officials don’t have to be in a position where they are running against grass-roots activists.”

So, if Sanders wins the majority of elected primary delegates, but Clinton has enough super-delegate support to win, will she do it?

Of course.


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I have no doubt that Clinton would. She has wanted to be President for so long, and has run her campaign as a coronation. She feels entitled to it, and seems genuinely convinced that she would be a better President–and that people who vote for Sanders are fools.

So the real question is whether superdelegates pledged to Clinton would actually vote for her if it meant overturning the Democratic will of the party.

To do so would be disastrous. I suspect it would cost Clinton and Democrats the election. I’m not American, but if I were, I certainly would not vote for Clinton in such a situation. I think most of the young people who are strongly for Clinton wouldn’t either.

The effects would ripple forwards in time, as well, proving to youngsters that the game is rigged, and that Democrats can’t be trusted.

So many party insiders owe Clinton everything. Those who don’t are mostly aligned with Obama, who has appeared to back Clinton so far. Loyalty means a great deal to these people, it is the liquid coin of insider party politics.

I suspect they would not be so foolish as to throw the primary to Clinton, but it’s not inconceivable. I imagine the plan would be to use Scalia’s empty Supreme Court as blackmail. The Court has always been their go-to “you-have-no-choice but-to-vote-for-us-even-though-we-suck” issue.

I’d guess that super-delegates won’t be an issue in the end. They’ll go where the elected delegates are, or the issue will be made moot by Clinton winning or Bernie crushing her.

But there’s a huge landmine here, and it’s one that could damage the Democratic party for decades.

It’s also ethically despicable, in my opinion, but then that phrase describes everything about Schultz and other insiders who feel they run a political party for their own benefit, and not that of the country.

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