The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Super Tuesday—Clinton and Trump Win as Expected

Feel free to use this as a thread to discuss the results. Remember that Sanders polls best in blue states, not red states. Trump will extend his lead, but by how much matters, because if he doesn’t wind up with a majority of delegates, the other candidates may well band against him to choose someone else.

Update: The non-super-delegate delegate count after Super Tuesday is 543 for Clinton, and 349 for Sanders. On the Republican side Trump has 285, Cruz 161, Rubio 87, Kasich 25, and Carson 8.


How Much Property Is Ethical?


Is Sanders Done?


  1. tony

    Clintons are apparently using the secret service to effectively block voting at polling stations.

  2. Hugh

    Just wanted to point out that going into Super Tuesday with the frontrunners already defined, states representing all of 3.8% of the American population had voted.

    Additionally, Super Tuesday is essentially a Southern Primary. It seems strange, although predictable, that one of the most conservative regions in the country is allowed to have such disproportionate weight in the Presidential selection process.

  3. BlizzardOfOz

    @Hugh, interesting point. But remember, it also gives blacks disproportionate weight, since they are concentrated in the South — which is amplified by the fact that they block-vote like no other group. That’s what did Bernie in more than anything.

  4. anonymous coward

    It’s especially odd that the Democrats would let the “southern primary” have such an outsize influence on their nomination when they won’t win down here regardless of whomever they pick. Al Gore couldn’t even win TN, his home state, in back 2000. Seriously you guys, FWIW, I voted for Bernie today and donated last night. But I do it knowing it’s a completely futile gesture. Down here, it’s all identity politics along racial lines. The black vote follows whatever line put out by the black Democratic Party machine in the cities like Atlanta. )It was very disheartening witnessing even John Lewis join in the smear campaign against Bernie Sanders. I used to think Lewis walked on water, not just over bridges.) If you live down here, you know what that machine stands for is corruption with a capital C, not “betterment” or “empowerment” for their constituents. Identity politics as practiced by the Democrats is a spoils system. The constituents are left to pick over a garbage heap (but told over and over that Santa is coming, just keep voting for us a little while longer. One day we’ll deliver something for someone besides ourselves and our cronies.) Meanwhile the political class that deceives and enslaves them feasts on the spoils directed out of DC and whatever they can squeeze out of the local taxbase. Hillary is corruption personified and poses no threat whatever to the dominance of identity politics and corruption within the Democratic Party. So she’s going to win big in the South – where she’ll lose big in the general should she capture the nomination. Why do we do this? For f’s sake let the north and California vote first.

  5. mike

    “Remember that Sanders polls best in blue states, not red states.”

    Uh, have you any statistics to back that up? Have you looked closely at the poll results for all 50 states? Mapped them out? I don’t think most folks have. I think that’s just an assumption. Looks to me like Sanders is doing well almost everywhere in the country other than the NY-DC beltway and the south. If I’m not mistaken he’s ahead in every state west of the Mississippi, except for Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, that bit of the south west of the river. He’s strong in the blue states on the west coast, Calif, Oregon, Wash, but also doing well in the more conservative states out west, midwest, and north like Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Kansas, Nebraska. If I’m not mistaken he’s currently ahead in around 32 states, nearly twice as many as Hillary. If you make a map showing where he’s ahead it’s very interesting, and makes it clear just how limited Hillary’s support is.

    People shouldn’t believe this nonsense about the south determining things. It’s just the media back east. California alone has nearly as many delegates as the entire south, 546, and it’s Sanders country, this won’t be settled till June.

  6. karenjj2

    Useful link if you just want the numbers by state as they come in

  7. markfromireland

    @ Hugh – A question for you although anonymous coward above has mostly answered it:

    Am I right in supposing that Clinton is doing well in the primaries in states that aren’t even remotely likely to vote for her in the election proper? I’ve read about her having a “southern firewall” and if the election proper were a purely southern democrat affair she’d doubtless win it courtesy of the said “firewall”. But it’s not a purely southern democrat affair so I find myself wondering how viable her campaign is once it gets past the heavy petting stage and settles in to some serious electoral wooing.

    It seems to me that all Trump would have to do eviscerate her campaign is tour the states reciting a list in each state of employers that have gone out of business as a direct result of Bill Clinton’s evisceration of American manufacturing – all he has to do is remind voters of the Clintons’ boast that if you elected him you got her for free (remember her health care “reforms”?) and ask them if having seen both employment opportunities and wages hit the bottom of the barrel they really want to have what’s left of the barrel dismantled around their ears.

  8. different clue

    I can perhaps see Rubio agreeing to drop out because he is so young he will decide he can try again in the future when he will still be sort of young. But I cannot see Kasich or Cruz dropping out. Cruz is too self-righteous and mean to ever drop out and Kasich will be deeply embittered
    by efforts to drive him out and he will stay in to get revenge and prove a point. If there is one thing we in the MidWest do well, it is bitterness.

    I hope Sanders and his supporters keep at it right up to the bitter end. If they lose fair and square after all that, some of them be reconciled to it. If Clinton is anointed and coronnated in 2016 the way Obama was anointed and coronated in 2008, many Sanders supporters will be bitter and unreconciled to that. Perhaps a nominee Cruz or Rubio could terrify them into voting for Clinton, but a nominee Trump would merely disgust them into wanting the whole system burned all the way down. Trump will get a large Burn This Mother Down vote in addition to getting a large White Grievance Nationalist vote and a large pro-torture vote if Clinton is unfairly anointed and coronnated at the Convention.

  9. Ivory Bill Woodpecker

    I finally figured out what Trump reminds me of.

    Money and power, but no class–he resembles a Mob boss.

  10. Starveling

    Honestly I’m half-tempted to vote Trump as a pure Spite vote if Clinton gets the nom. God save us all.

  11. Chris Collins

    Looking at the media tonight I’m relly not sure what’s happening but here are some takeaways.

    A number of moderate conservatives are outright saying they will vote for Clinton over Trump (and maybe over Cruz)

    There is a much larger number of the GOP who have vowed not to back anyone if Trump is the Nominee.

    A third party bid from leftovers of the GOP is likely, several seem to think a new party can be formed and a majority of former republicans lined up behind them in months.

    Cruz has surprising numbers in national polls vs Hillary but his actual on the ground support seems to not line up with polls at all.

    A number of GOP pundits have come out with plans for the future (trying to avoid the doom and gloom of the weekend media coverage) the problem is they all have different ideas.

    It seems at the very least the GOP as it has been known since the Reagan era will be either radically changed or a dead man walking this time next year.

  12. Some Guy

    Reading the interviews with voters, I’m struck by how many Clinton voters are voting for her even though they prefer Sanders policies.

    Historically, this lesser-evilism is of course a powerful force, especially in 2 party America, but if Trump were to defeat Clinton in a general, it would destroy that dynamic for a long time on the Democratic side and support levels for the establishment stooge de jour could unravel quickly given such a thin basis of support.

    On the other hand, if Clinton gets elected, that too could destroy the ‘take the safer pick’ since Clinton will face the same obstruction Obama did, will undoubtedly incur more disasters on the foreign policy front, and is likely to see some level of cyclical economic downturn on her watch if elected, plus the ongoing drumbeat of neoliberal economic failure (for the 99%).

    The Democratic establishment is currently on track to win this battle, but the war doesn’t look too good going forward.

    On the Republican side, even the battle looks pretty grim for the establishment types. Rubio falling under 20% in Texas was important as it means he is shutout of delegates in one of the biggest states. Neither Cruz or Rubio will drop out before the 15th, and after that Trump may be pretty much nominated.

  13. that Jim

    mfi: you are correct, with two exceptions. If you look at the vote counts in the states Clinton won, the Republican turnout runs 160-200% of the Dem turnout; in the states Sanders wonthat’s reversed (tho by a smaller margin). The exceptions: MA, where Clinton ekes out a small win (20k votes out of 1.16M), where Dem turnout crushes the Reps, and OK, where Sanders wins by 10 points but the Dems are outnumbered 3:2.

    Sanders’ position will never be worse than tonight.

  14. suttree

    I’m registered Green Party.
    I’m willing to cast my last – naively optimistic – vote for Sanders for President if he’s on the ticket.
    Otherwise, pitchforks, lampposts and Trump – I’m in.

  15. BDBlue

    I guess now we see how serious Sanders is about trying to become the nominee. Whether he is in it to win it, as they say. He’s 74, I hope he’s decided to go for it, but we’ll see. He’s going to be under enormous pressure to either 1) drop out or 2) seriously dial down his criticisms of Clinton so as not to “damage” her (because without him pointing it out, voters would apparently be too stupid to notice how tied she is to Wall Street, her foreign policy record, etc.). I think he’d be crazy to drop out now given the next couple of weeks are his low point in terms of what states are voting and he’s been on an upward national trajectory, but who knows?

    I wouldn’t rely too much on where Clinton is winning the primaries in making an “electability” argument. Obama won the nomination in 2008 largely in non-Dem states, with Clinton winning most big “blue” states and swing states. He still won in November. The response will just be that those Sanders states will go Dem, they “always” go Dem. You know, until they don’t.

    I think the true danger signs and the better argument on her electability are the head-to-head polls and her downward trajectory in terms of approval/support. Although many Democrats I know can’t actually envision her losing to Trump. Limited imagination that lot.

  16. V. Arnold

    Clinton, the harridan, is a proven entity leaving absolutely no doubt where she stands! “We came, we saw, he died!” said she, laughing like a hyena.
    What more do you (or anyone) need to know?
    This is a seminal moment for the U.S.; not a time to be stupid!

  17. LorenzoStDuBois

    My comment: the BLACK VOTE.

    Although black people as a demographic are historically the most left-wing group, and black activism right now is vibrantly radical, black voters are overwhelmingly going for the Establishment, corporatist, pro-bank, pro-prison, pro-war candidate.

    This is a fact whatever “movement” is happening together with the Sanders candidacy MUST reckon with. What is the reason for this?

    White people like me have to be respectful and not be telling black people I think they’re voting against their interest, as I don’t have any skin in this game, no pun intended, so it’s not my problem if Clinton actually had a better chance of stopping Trump. (big if)

    Still, I know a lot of younger black people hate Hillary, and I do believe in the black misleadership class theory: black people out of necessity built powerful non-state organizations to further their interests. These organizations have grown old, stale and comfortable. The Clinton campaign’s top down strategy of getting union leadership endorsement despite rank-and-file disatisfaction probably also applies to black organizations.

    Would different leadership in these organizations have tipped the scales?

  18. Thanks for the delegate count. I was looking for that all evening yesterday and was only able to find that Clinton had won 7 states while Sanders had won only (at that point) 1 state.

  19. anonymous coward

    Well, this sheep isn’t voting for any more Clintons ever. In fact I won’t be voting for any more Democrats ever, if Bernie is not the nominee. (Voting is probably soon to go out of fashion altogether in this country, so that’s not such a dramatic statement as it may appear) The only reason I entertained the idea of voting for Sanders, and I am late convert, is that he wasn’t a Democrat. I used to remonstrate with myself about my voter apathy if I may be allowed to use such a big word by pointing at the example of my Congressman, John Lewis. John Lewis is yer Representative, I said, so how can you really complain about the system? It’s giving you all the quality of representation you could ask for, it’s just all the other Congressional districts that are fucked up. However, watching Lewis get in front of cameras this campaign season and pretend that Bernie Sanders is actually lying about having been involved in the civil rights protests of the Kennedy/Johnson years has swept aside the last stay against my total disgust and rejection. He’s doing this in the context of Mayor Kasim Reed’s remarks that Bernie Sanders is exactly the same to him as Donald Trump, in other words Bernie’s just another racist cracker. And Lewis then pipes up on behalf of a thoroughly corrupt local machine (google for terms: Dekalb county, GA corruption bribery, extortion county CEO Burrell Ellis, Lee Mays, streetcar boondoggle, Atlanta Public Schools scandal) and in support of a woman who was a Goldwater Girl back in the historical period in question. Asked about Sanders civil rights involvement Lewis said “I never saw Bernie Sanders.” Implication: Sanders is liar and a racist just like Mayor Reid told you. Disgraceful. I still believe he is a Good Man. But prolonged contact with a corrupt system has twisted him and brought him down to the point where he can’t recognize and join forces with another good man. Hillary represents the Identity Politics spoils system, the black Democratic Party machine in GA and elsewhere isn’t interested in how the economy functions, how wealth is generated they just see Wall Street making an ill-gotten mint and want to know “Where is our slice of that?” (not that they’re going to share it out with their voters, mind you) Bernie threatens the both the Golden Calf of Wall St. and the death grip of Identity Politics on the Democratic Party – because he doesn’t pander to it which is the same thing as being against it. From the point of view of the corruption machine, Bernie has to be stopped, and sadly John Lewis has covered himself in shit this time, instead of glory.

    I won’t be voting for Trump either. I could give lots of reasons there. I may say things like “Bern this mother down!” at times, but my desire to stick my finger in the eye of Democrats for being a corrupt corporatist sellout party doesn’t extend to deliberately blowing up my country.

  20. MojaveWolf

    @anonymous coward: THANK YOU!!

    Seriously you guys, FWIW, I voted for Bernie today and donated last night. But I do it knowing it’s a completely futile gesture. Down here, it’s all identity politics along racial lines.

    I saw people saying this on twitter after I got home last night “I voted even tho it didn’t matter I wanted to show support” & while the good intentions were cool & all, as a practical matter you guys helped save this campaign (no, I don’t work for it & have nothing to do with any official anything & am a registered independent or “decline to state” as they say in Cali, but this is my campaign, and yours, cause it really does matter who wins this one as far as the whole future of the world) The people who stayed home cause they didn’t see the point hurt us badly. Three main reasons why you rock and are just as important as the people who voted in districts where someone took the delegate by one vote (this actually happened yesterday):
    1. Delegates in primaries are proportional by vote total. It matters a hell of a lot how much we win or lose by.
    2. Momentum. Things like what happened in Alabama & Georgia look really bad. (I grew up in Alabama. I love a lot of things about the place but do not regret at all moving away) Fortunately we had extra big wins in some other places to make up for it, but those margins coulda been & shoulda been better.
    3. Popular vote optics–someone is going to be ahead at the end of the day in actual counted votes. That someone is going to have a powerful argument that they should be the nominee, even tho the idiot state govts that went to caucuses screwed up the usefulness of this metric to some degree. It would be really, really good if that someone was Bernie.

    @Tony–yes. That is an outrage. I’m not just pissed that he did it but pissed that no one appears to be doing anything about it & the MSM was mostly not covering it when last I paid attention. Furious making.

  21. MojaveWolf

    @Some Guy
    Reading the interviews with voters, I’m struck by how many Clinton voters are voting for her even though they prefer Sanders policies.

    I noticed that on the progressive station on the radio last night. The media drumbeat of electability combined with the fact that she actually is really sharp & super intelligent, even if her judgement is shit. She is quite honestly the best presidential debater I’ve seen in my life, except a couple of times when she’s gotten rattled & nasty this go round, I think both because Bernie’s jabs about her policies hit home and because she as much as her more obnoxious supporters really believe she’s entitled to the resume stuffer position. Also, she can be charming. We forget that on the blogs I read cause we all hate her, but a lot of the time she comes off very likable, and people already predisposed to like her–most Democrats prior to this election–are going to latch on to that. The support is for her, because they believe in her ability & her electability & cause they want a woman president. I even agree we are way overdue. That is what’s keeping her afloat, combined with at least a few people who believe her “policy shift” & this idiocy that “they agree on nearly everything.”

    If sh beoth just came out and said, “here’s what I plan to do” and was honest about it, and the media analyzed both platforms fairly for likely outcomes, or maybe even if they didn’t, he would win 70-30 or 80-20 across the board.

  22. ks


    Well said though it’s sadly amusing how well the same charade works over and over and over again.

    I must admit I get a kick out of the blame being placed by some here on “identity politics” for poor old sheepdog Berine’s decline while Trump is playing the identity politics game to the nth degree but, as usual, the “identity politics” label only applies to some.

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