The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Sanders and Trump Win in New Hampshire

Donald TrumpNo surprise, the polls were leaning strongly to both of them.

Things get interesting from here for Sanders, but Trump will be moving to strength. New Hampshire is prosperous and has done well since the financial crisis; that’s not true in most of the upcoming states.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)

I think Trump will be the Republican nominee. On the Democratic side, the Clinton campaign is beginning to panic and lash out. Bernie’s national numbers keep trending up. The question is mostly whether they’re trending up fast enough to allow him to win.

Trump’s nasty endorsement of torture puts him even further beyond the pale than he was before, but he continues to be to the left of Clinton on most domestic policy.

Update: Exit polls show Bernie taking 49 percent of non-white voters. 85 percent of voters under 30. 55 percent of women. I suspect he’s the next Democratic nominee.


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  1. V. Arnold

    I find Trump to be a genuinely scary guy; but, he’s showing us the real attitude of U.S.’s citizens, towards racism and bigotry. A divided population can be manipulated and controlled by the deep state, as intended.
    I don’t know if it matters, but it’s been reported NH hasn’t elected a president in 28 years. It ain’t over till it’s over; we’ll see…

  2. Spinoza

    This is entirely anecdotal but every conservative I know likes trump and every liberal likes sanders.

  3. V. Arnold

    And don’t forget the democrat’s “Super Delegates”; they can over-ride a popular vote.
    Democracy? Not hardly…

  4. Lemonhead

    Let’s remember who is behind every article bashing Trump since he announced he was running.

    It’s not hard… look at the author anytime you’re at Salon or Huffpo or any other leftist shill site.

    All similar sorts of names.

    Yeah… cultural Marxism, neo-liberalism, all serving one master.

  5. Ivory Bill Woodpecker

    *sigh* These riffraff concerned with “ethnicity” keep showing up here.

    As for exit polls, I rather doubt their accuracy.

    Let’s see how Sanders does in states which are not Paleface Bantustans.

  6. Ivory Bill Woodpecker

    Plus, New Hampshire is an “open primary” state, which leaves open the possibility of GOP ratf**king.

  7. S Brennan

    Trump may have won, but Bernie Sanders sure as hell lost BIG TIME.

    FACE IT [D]’s, your votes don’t matter…to those who do.

    After Crushing Defeat, DNC “Quirk” Still Gives Hillary More New Hampshire Delegates Than Sanders:

    Read more:

  8. knfd

    IIRC isn’t the Republican result purely advisory? Because if it is then–

    Democratic primary: Delegate elections don’t count
    Republican primary: Convention results don’t count
    General: Votes cast for anyone but Democrats and Republicans don’t count (legal barriers to entry + de-facto legal non-recognition of third parties)

    So just where is the popular representation in this system? I’m not seeing it anywhere.

    It looks like just another crummy 3rd-world authoritarian pseudo-representative system parading around as democracy.

  9. Some Guy

    S. Brennan, please don’t spread that superdelegate nonsense. If Sanders wins the regular (voted for) delegates, he’s the nominee, period.

    The nihilistic side of me could almost wish that the Dems might try to override their voters in choosing the nominee, but it’s not going to happen.

  10. S Brennan

    Some Guy;

    Who the eff are to tell me not inform people that:

    New Hampshire has 32 delegates, but only 24 delegates allotted by voters. With a ~62% to ~38% split, Sanders got 13 and Clinton got 9, with 2 still to be decided by party officials, however, 8 more delegates or 25% of the delegates belong to Democratic National Committee party officials.

    In 2008 the super delegates overrode the popular vote to put in place the greater corporate lackey, I have no doubt they will do so again.

  11. Escher

    Wait a minute… Ivory Bill…

    I’m onto you!

  12. Ivory Bill Woodpecker


    Yes, I am a hobbit of the Arkanshire, the last state in which, maybe, the literal ivory-billed woodpecker was last spotted.

    Or if you meant Bill Clinton, I am not he, but I hold fairly good memories of both him and Hillary.

  13. Kim Kaufman

    If HIllary thinks she can win with superdelegates if Bernie has otherwise “yuge” votes from the 99%, I expect there will be trouble in River City, i.e., the Dem convention next summer. My understanding is that Hillary actually had more popular votes than Obama in 2008 but he gamed her otherwise to win the nomination. That was then. I don’t see that happening this time. Who would vote for her in the general if she’s so completely disdainful of the 99%? I could see a “yuge” Bernie write-in – except that, unfortunately, he probably wouldn’t go for it.

  14. Some Guy

    “Who the eff are to tell me not inform people that…”

    Hey, I’m just Some Guy, but I did say please 🙂

    But your comment, “In 2008 the super delegates overrode the popular vote to put in place the greater corporate lackey” is wrong – seriously, you can look it up. Superdelegates have never overturned the elected (pledged) delegate winner, and they never will, they are irrelevant.

    Your suggestion (and Kim’s) that Obama somehow cheated Clinton (in this respect) is just an echo of some feeble Clinton talking points from 2008 that didn’t hold up to any serious scrutiny (she claimed she had received more votes overall, while omitting to note that votes aren’t counted in the caucus states which Obama dominated). Clinton’s talking points were an attempt to convince superdelegates to overturn the pledged count because she ‘really’ won, but nobody took her seriously then, and they won’t this time either (or maybe they will, in case all hell will break loose and the Republic candidate will cruise to victory no matter who they are) but I really don’t think so, the Dempublicans are dumb and corrupt, but they’re not *that* dumb.

    My point to you was that the media is putting out charts showing the super delegates in the total to make it look like Clinton is cleaning up, or to push a narrative that she really won Iowa and tied New Hampshire*. By talking up the super delegate tally, you are playing into that Clinton supporting narrative.

    * Just google ‘2016 primary’ and look at what google puts up as the delegate totals on the Democratic side, and note that somehow on the Republican side they only show the elected ones.

  15. As is typical of “progressives”, Sanders said from day one that no matter what happened he’d support Clinton if she’s the nominee, no conditions imposed. So why shouldn’t the party override the popular vote if necessary? At the least there won’t be any penalty coming from him, and he’ll tell his supporters to fall into line.

  16. nihil obstet

    On superdelegates — I don’t like the structure, but I’d believe that a political party has the right to organize itself as it wishes. One of its main goals would obviously be to attract members. If it gets too far out of line, the citizens will reject it.

    However, in the U.S., the government is complicit with the two major parties, so that the parties are in effect a branch of government. Gerrymandering divides the districts between the parties. Ballot access is tightly controlled.

    In the real world, the votes of the people are restricted by the two parties. Therefore, if legal access effectively kneecaps third, fourth, fifth, whatever parties, then democratic rules must apply to the major party selection procedures. Superdelegates are corruption.

  17. Some Guy

    S Brennan – not sure what the point of your link is. Yes, Clinton and Obama agreed not to participate in Michigan or Florida primaries, and yes, once Clinton realized she might need those votes after all, her team tried to change the agreed upon rules to get those votes to count, even though Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot for the (unsanctioned) vote in Michigan and there was no campaigning done in either state.

    It was a standard attempt by Clinton to change the rules in her favour to compensate for her inability to get people to actually vote for her, and it failed, just like any scheme to use the superdelegates to gain the nomination this time around would fail. To quote from your link, ““This was their [Clinton’s] last big chance to move the goal posts and it failed,”

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