Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: End of American Empire Page 1 of 12

America Almost Out Of Long Range Strike Munitions

By

On August 4, 2026

21 Comments

Why did Trump call off his big attacks? Why did the US stop attacking suddenly?

he U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar with the data, raising concerns about the military’s ​readiness for future conflicts.
The missiles are principally the Army’s surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The U.S. has used “virtually all” of these weapons, according to two of the sources.

There are also claims that the US is running out of long range air to ground munitions as well.

Combined these two things mean that if America wants to keep bombing Iran, they have to actually fly over Iran and put themselves in much more danger from Iranian anti-air, and by all accounts the Iranians still have plenty left.

This problem comes from the same place virtually all US problems come from: rather than optimizing for results (production) everyone optimizes for profits. Selling fewer missiles for much more money is a better business deal, yes?

And that the US cannot significantly increase the production is due to de-industrializing: sending most of America’s key industries to China, because hey, it doesn’t matter where things are made.

China is now the US in WWII. They could, in a war, easily retool to produce literally millions of drones. They can produce a hundred warships per warship the US produces. Etc.

These are systematic issues. De-financialization is politically impossible. Without de-financialization re-industrializing is not possible, as it would require companies to make far lower profits. Chinese companies are MUCH bigger than American ones, and make less profit (not revenue, but profit) and have far lower valuations.

In 2025 BYD sold 2.26 million cars. Tesla sold 1.64 million. And China has many auto companies.

The mindset for scaling and the mindset for profit-maxing are very different. American elites are all looking for moats: they all want to be able to charge more for a product than it is worth because no one is competing with them on price. (This is why Chinese EVs aren’t allowed in America: they compete on price and the American car industry would cease to exist on contact.)

America lost the Iran war over fifty years as it changed from an industrial power to a financial power. Power comes from what a country can actually do. What it can buy from other countries is a minor consideration unless it has the ability to force them to sell, and that ability comes from what the country can do. Against Venezuela and Cuba, the US is still strong enough. Against a middle power which prepared for war and knows how to use geography, not so much.

In general terms, everything that is happening was predicted decades ago by objective people looking at the trends. Power comes from capability, America was systematically getting rid of that capability to optimize for the number of rich people it could generate.

Military decline, industrial decline, technological decline: all of this comes from making profits the end-goal, rather than the mean by which worthwhile goals were achieved.

“We need to make a profit do X” is very different from “we do X to make a profit.”

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

“Nothing Ever Happens”

By

On July 27, 2026

16 Comments

Oh?

Almost everything is on track.

  • Covid?
  • The financial crisis?
  • This war? China officially leading the US in tech and industry?
  • Global warming coming on faster than expected?
  • Massive wildfires every summer?
  • Trump being President?
  • The Ukraine war?
  • That little genocide in Palestine?
  • The US being unable to build enough weapons?
  • The complete breakdown of international law and (more seriously) the WTO trade order?
  • A revolution in war making technology which has allowed middle powers to fight great powers?
  • Multiple payment systems challenging dollar privilege.
  • Serious collapses in animal and insect populations, so much so that bug splat doesn’t exist in much of the world any more and that I rarely see songbirds.
  • Constant, inexorable rises in food prices, even before the war.

Notice that food per capita line. Remember all the screaming about fertility rates and look at the births line (though I think the collapse is more severe than modeled.) Industrial output is still increasing, as the chart suggests, but China’s about to go over a demographic ledge and I expect it will peak within ten years of the chart’s prediction. Resources are very definitely being depleted, though less fast than predicted. Still, it’s happening. Just read in detail about oil production.

Collapse happens slowly, then all at once. The post-USSR order has collapsed. It’s gone. The trade order has collapsed. Military supremacy is gone. Every summer we get wildfires and smoke in major cities, which did not happen before about 2019. This is a textbook example of climate change re-ordering the environment. What will grow up afterwards will be a different mix of plants and animals.

Things are happening. Big things. If you want the official “big collapse” well, it’s not here yet for the first world, but the death by a thousand self-inflicted wounds continues. As much as I admire what China has done, and as impressed as I am by solar and so on, they are still an industrial society based on planned obsolescence and over-production and are about to hit a demographic cliff (good in the long run, but it will cause issues.) The only escape from much of the resource trap would be large scale off world mining. Musk isn’t going to manage it. The Chinese are taking a shot, we’ll see. That wouldn’t, by itself, fix ecological collapse, however and won’t supply all necessary resources. It’s also unlikely to come on line in time, if at all.

You’re living thru an epochal period, similar to the WWI thru WWII period: everything is changing, but this time including serious environmental issues. There’s also all the social issues related to AI, phones, the collapse of reading and reasoning ability in some societies, mass surveillance and the rise of authoritarianism, even as civil liberties are contracting in almost every country in the world.

The post-war and post-cold war orders are dying or dead. The negative consequences of the industrial revolution are hitting home after we got the goodies for a couple centuries.

Things are happening. More things will happen over the next couple decades. If you can’t see that, you’re blind.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

 

Text of the Iran/US MOU

By

On June 18, 2026

19 Comments

From Dropsite:

Paragraph 1: (end military ops including in Lebanon: this is the one that may blow it up.)

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this M.O.U. declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain [from] the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

Paragraph 2:

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

Paragraph 3: (This ain’t final, more to negotiate.)

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

Paragraph 4: (Immediate end of US blockade, Iran has 30 days. US to remove forces.)

Immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

Paragraph 5: (no charge for passage thru the strait. At least for 60 days, I suspect Iran/Oman will try and have charges after that.)

Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Paragraph 6: (US pays 300 billion in restitution. This is why Iran agreed to no fees for passage, at least for now.)

The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

Paragraph 7: (End of sanctions.)

The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Paragraph 8: (No nukes for Iran. Downblending in Iran under IAEA supervision.)

The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on the statutory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Paragraph 9: (No new sanctions, no new nuclear program.)

Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

Paragraph 10: (Again, end of sanctions: this time for oil products.)

The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

Paragraph 11: (Release of all frozen funds.)

The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

Paragraph 12:

The United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this M.O.U. and the future compliance of the final deal.

Paragraph 13: (Negotiation not over yet.)

After signing this M.O.U. and subject to the beginning of the implementation of Paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this M.O.U., and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

Paragraph 14:

The final deal will be endorsed by a binding U.N.S.C. resolution.

Commentary:

This is a decisive victory for Iran and a loss for Israel and America, though I’d argue that the US ending sanctions and military efforts in the Middle East is good for America. Still, there’s no question that this is the sort of deal that gets signed when one side (Iran) won and the other side (Israel and the US) lost.

I mean — 300 billion in reparations. The US end their blockade first. The US says it’ll get move forces out of the region. The US ends pretty much all sanctions and gives Iran back their money.

Massive win for Iran. Iran is now a great power in the region, and no one can deny it.

The obvious problem here is Israel. If Iran is serious about an end to violence in Lebanon, then this will wind up as a dead letter unless the US tightens Israel’s leash (which it can do, Israel is entirely dependent on US aid). Alternative the US could simply shrug, and make the deal only between them and Iran, and say “if Israel wants to keep fighting, it’s on its own.)

The question here is the power of the domestic lobby, and whether or not Israel has enough blackmail on Trump. (Signing this deal at all makes it look like the answer to , which I thought was “absolutely” may well be “nope, not enough.” We’ll see.)

The US is no longer a superpower. The world no longer has any superpowers. It’s still a great power with worldwide reach, but the days where it was the world’s “super cop” are over. It can still push around weak nations, but not strong regional powers. Took a little less than 30 years from the fall of the USSR for American elites to screw up a completely dominant position.

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Americans Today Have Little To Be Proud Of

By

On June 1, 2026

32 Comments

Pride in one’s nation is one of the weakest and most pathetic types of pride because a nation’s greatness is a result of so many different people’s contribution. Unless you are FDR level, you contributed very little.

But American pride in being American is ridiculous.

Americans have nothing to be proud of, not today’s Americans anyway. The people who made America great are all dead. The people in power today are those who threw away the greatness their predecessors: their betters, created. The same is true of the English. Victorians or even Regency English would despise their descendants pathetic weakness, foolishness and stupidity.

What are you proud of, exactly? Getting you asses whipped by Iran? Impoverishing 60% of your own population? Helping Israel commit genocide? Killing millions in Iraq for no goddamn reason, since Iraq never attacked America? Gutting the Bill of Rights? Having the most corrupt President in American history?

One can criticize FDR and the post-war liberals of the 40s and 50s and 60s for various reasons: but they built an America which was great in many ways: that worked for more and more people, that delivered a good life for many, and which became more fair over time (civil liberties, for example, and increased rights for women.)

Americans were given the best hand in the world: the industrial and tech lead, and they pissed it away. They literally, voluntarily, shipped their industry to China acting as if making a an extra percentage point more profit was all that mattered.

America’s always been evil. All Empires are, and so are all settler colonial states. It’s just the way it is. But Americans of previous generations were competent, and starting with FDR, they at least took care of their own people. They were an American Athens, where immigrants were welcome, where people could make something of themselves, where the world’s great scholars and scientists wanted to be.

America had it all, and pissed it away.

No country, like no person, is of a piece. There is always good and evil, things to be proud of and things to be ashamed of.

But everything great in America was created by people who are dead or old, or are downstream of the post-war liberal period. The tech for the internet was created by post-war government agencies. The world wide web was invented by a government scientist working in an agency created by post-war liberals. Modern GUI interfaces were created in the early 70s and everything that flows from all this, including cell and smart phones is a result of technologies created by government or Bell Labs.

The great tech revolutions of the 80s, 90s and 2000s were all matters of exploiting fundamental discoveries and work done in the post-war era and the cupboard is now bare. America is cutting spending on research, burning its seed corn, even as China ramps up research. America is impoverishing its own people, even as China forces housing prices lower and works to improve wages and living standards for the majority.

To be proud of being American today is pathetic. What is there to be proud of? Destroying the bill of rights? Having a president who openly takes bribes in office? Losing the the tech and industrial lead? Making most of the population poor? Being the attack dog of Israel, with most politicians doing the bidding of a foreign country to the detriment of their own people?

Everything great about America is a legacy of the past, not a product of the present and being proud of being American is like being proud your parents left you a billion dollars, and you’re now worth a hundred million.

 

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

The Law Of Elite Consequences Continues To Demolish America

By

On May 8, 2026

23 Comments

There’s a lovely quote in the WSJ that encapsulates everything wrong with America in the last 50 odd years:

Many of the investors, bankers and corporate chieftains who took over the Waldorf and Beverly Hilton this week have become desensitised to President Donald Trump’s whims. The stock market hitting new records, even if investors are attempting to pull tens of billions of dollars from some private funds, has helped those spirits.

Financiers largely brushed off concerns that have dominated conversations on Wall Street in recent months, including the ongoing war with Iran, which has driven up petrol prices across the US and is now dividing policymakers at the Federal Reserve over whether they can eventually cut interest rates.

“Does anyone really care if the Strait of Hormuz is open?” one high-powered banker posited.

Counterpoint:

Back in 2009 I wrote a post called Essential Insanity, trying to diagnose what was causing American problems. It had three main points: here’s the last one:

The second type is worse, in a sense. When Diamond wrote his book on why societies collapse he came to the conclusion that it occurred when elites weren’t experiencing the same things as the majority of the society–when they were isolated from the problems and challenges the society was facing.

For 30 years, ordinary Americans haven’t had a raise. And despite all the lies, Americans are beginning to get that.

But, for the people in charge, the last thirty years have been absolutely wonderful. Seriously, things haven’t been this good since the 1890’s and the 1920’s. Everyone they know–their families, their mistresses and toyboys, their friends–is doing well. Wall Street paid even larger bonuses for 2007, the year they ran the ship into the shore, than they did in 2006 when their bonuses equalled the raises of 80 million Americans. Multiple CEOs walked away from companies they had bankrupted with golden parachutes in excess of 50 million. And if you can find a senator who isn’t a millionaire, (except maybe Bernie Sanders) you let me know.

Life has been great. The fact that America is physically unhealthy, falling behind technologically, hemorrhaging good jobs, and that ordinary Americans are in debt up to their eyebrows, haven’t seen a raise in 30 years, and live in mortal fear of getting ill–because even if they have insurance, it doesn’t cover the necessary care–means nothing to the decision-making part of America because it hasn’t experienced it. America’s elites are doing fine, thanks. All they can taste or remember is the caviar and champagne they swill to celebrate how wonderful they are and how much they deserve all the money federal policy has given them.

This is the second insanity of the US: The decision making apparatus in the US is disconnected from the results of their decisions. They make sure they get paid, that they’re wealthy, and let the rest of society go to hell. In the end, of course, most of them will find that the money isn’t theirs, and that what they’ve stolen is worth very little if the US has a real financial crisis.

During the Covid pandemic, Western elites got richer. A lot richer. The worse everyone else does, the better they do.

This is the fundamental disconnect in the West: the people who are making the decisions do well no matter how much ordinary people are hurt; no matter how much they weaken their own countries. In fact, it’s worse than that: the worse their countries and citizens are doing, the better they do.

Every disaster is used to allow more looting. Are there oil shortages? Raise prices even more than costs? Food? Same thing. Are some companies going bankrupt? Buying opportunity! Are citizens desperate? Great, they’ll work for less.

Life is good for our elites and the more they destroy our countries, the better life is for them.

Of course they don’t care that Trump is driving America and the West into the dirt? Why should they? They don’t think it effects them. Of course, in time, it will, but they don’t see that or they don’t care: after all India’s richest people live great lives, who cares if India is a corrupt shithole?

So sorry about high gas prices, high food prices, high health care costs and no future for you or your children. None of that matters. Trump’s getting rich being President and so are American elites and in the eternal honest words of George W. Bush “who cares what you think?”

You don’t matter. It’s been 60 years since anyone in power in America cared about America or Americans. Europe’s leaders are about the same.

Suck it up buttercup. Life’s getting worse and no one with the power to change that cares, because they’re doing more than just fine—they’re the richest rich in the history of the world, and life is good.

 

Everyone reads these articles for free, but the site and Ian take money to run. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Iran Has Broken The US Middle East Raj

By

On May 7, 2026

14 Comments

It turns out that Trump’s plan to help ships go thru the Strait was ended when both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait refused to let the US use their airspace or US bases in their countries to launch attacks.

The reason is obvious—Iran has repeatedly said that if the war restarts they will hit the Gulf States much harder than before, going after oil infrastructure in particular.

America has proved it can’t protect its Gulf allies. It’s low on interceptors, and what they have goes to Israel. Even with interceptors attacks get thru.

Bases have gone from defending countries to being liabilities. Being American allies drew the Gulf states into a war that devastated them. The Sauds and Kuwaitis have nothing to gain from letting the US launch attacks from their territory. The lesson was painful, but it has been learned.

This also puts an end to the idea that countries can’t deny the US. They just did, as did Spain.

The US Empire is dead. Officially dead. It does not come back from this because the new way of war centered on drones and missiles means that it is impossible for the US to protect its allies.

Likewise the US can no longer guarantee free navigation. This has been obvious for a couple years: if they couldn’t even defeat the Yemenis, they weren’t going to stand a chance against any real nation.

It’s over.

Again this doesn’t mean the US isn’t still a Great power, especially regionally. It can still shove around weak countries which aren’t willing to bear the heavy cost of standing up to it, like Venezuela.

But as time goes by the missiles and drones will spread from China, Russia and Iran to everyone else. Aircraft carriers will be forced way back, reducing sortie tempos, and blockades using ships will become harder and harder. Probably the best way to do a blockade against a far away country will be drone carriers, but even they will be vulnerable to counter-strikes.

This is also going to be a huge problem for the American military industrial complex: their weapons suck. No one is going to want to buy them. The key weapons needed are missiles, drones and air defense and all of those are cheaper and in many cases better from other suppliers.

At this point without data centers the US wouldn’t have essentially zero GDP growth. The stock market is being held up by a few major internet firms who are engaged in a massive circle jerk of financing their customers purchases. Chinese AI is behind American, but 95% cheaper, open source and will converge on the same general abilities, but better for real world tasks involving robots, autonomous vehicles and so on.

If you need to buy something you don’t want to get it from the US. Odds are China has it for less and at least as good, possibly better.

The world doesn’t need American goods. Everyone’s going to move off oil as fast as possible and it’s China that sells that stack. American weapons are crap. American alliances do nothing but give you a nuclear umbrella you can’t trust the US to deploy.  Trade is increasingly moving off the dollar and on to the Yuan, so sanctions will work less and less well and in less than five years will be basically useless except against vassals.

All that will be left is a wasting ability to use a legacy 90s tech military against the weak, and that’s going away too.

The US Empire is cooked. America’s elites were handed one of the strongest hands in history and pissed it all away in three generations. Truly late Roman Empire levels of incompetence.

Everyone reads these article for free, but the site and Ian take money to run. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

American Elites Have Reverse Empire Dysmorphia

By

On May 6, 2026

14 Comments

There’s a clinical diagnosis called body dysmorphia, where people think there’s something wrong with their body when it’s fine. Colloquially, some people refer to “reverse body dysmorphia” where someone thinks their body is better than it is.

In late middle aged men this often exhibits itself as thinking that they’re stronger, tougher and better in a fight than they are, feeling they’re as good as they were when younger. Some find out the hard way they’re wrong, picking a fight they can’t win.

This applies to American elites. They think America is as powerful as it was back during the Gulf War: able to crush opponents. It leads to constant incorrect decisions. The first major one was believing that sanctions would destroy the Russian economy and lead to victory for Ukraine.

The second major error was the second Iranian war. They thought they could easily beat Iran and overthrow its government. Instead all their local bases were smashed, they Strait of Hormuz was closed by the Iranians, their carrier groups forced back, and their one attempted ground action in Iran, to seize Iran’s enriched uranium reserve, was a bloody fiasco.

Since then they’ve tried to escort out ships and retreated. They’ve put on a blockade of the blockade, and Iran hasn’t buckled and Trump in particular keeps spouting on about how Iran is essentially already defeated and eager for a deal even as Iran has repeatedly refused negotiations.

The world economy is shuddering, the price of oil and its distillates are soaring, American farmers can’t afford enough fertilizer and Russia and China turn out to be two of the nations most able to weather the storm.

Woops.

And American elites keep talking like there’s a military solution when there isn’t. They keep talking like Iran lost the six week war, and not them. They keep offering peace terms which amount to “give us what we can’t win on the field of battle”.

They think they’re still America in the 90s. They don’t get that America is about half de-industrialized and that its military is set up to fight wars of the 90s, not modern drone and missile wars.

They have Empire dysmorphia, thinking they’re still in their prime, when they are no longer a hegemonic power, but only a Great Power. They can push around weak nations like Cuba or Venezuela, but not great powers, and Iran is a great power, as they proved by beating the US.

As long as America keep thinking they’re the only big dog, with the possible exception of China, they’re going to keep walking chin first into fights they can’t win, and their collapse is going to accelerate as a result. Their sanctions on China completely backfired and instead of China’s old stance, which was to trade with the US and let it slowly decline, China has pushed on ever tech lead that the West has.

Europe is similar. They don’t get that they aren’t even a Great Power any more. They are just weak, corrupt, sclerotic nations without any significant resources, who even added all together aren’t in the technological race. They’re deindustrializing. And they keep talking tough and making enemies.

Insanity. Sheer insanity.

Everyone reads these article for free, but the site and Ian take money to run. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

China Thinks Ahead To Reduce Its Reliance On Petroleum

By

On April 16, 2026

27 Comments

Near the start of the war I noted that the real issue with petroleum shortages wasn’t gasoline, it was diesel, bunker fuel (ships) and jet fuel.

Diesel is, despite what many say, feasible to get off of: even some of the massive machines used for mining are already being switched over, and China is moving hard on electric freight trucking.

Hitachi Electric Excavator

But large freighters and super tankers are a lot harder. Electric can work for coastal freighters, but it doesn’t work for long haul shipping because you need constant recharging.

Enter Green Ammonia. This is part of China’s push on hydrogen tech. It’s currently more expensive than bunker fuel, but projections show it might hit parity by 2030, at least for the Chinese, since they’re scaling it hard. It’s made from hydrogen extracted from water, and nitrogen extracted from air, and it has zero emissions (though that’s not what this about.)

What’s important here is that if your shipping fleet uses Green Ammonia, it doesn’t matter if the supply of hydrocarbons is cut. It can still move. China’s been buying up ports all over the world, refueling can occur at them, and it works almost as well as bunker fuel, so you can make long trips across the Atlantic or Pacific if needed. (Indeed, if it’ll reach price parity by 2030, we can assume it will be cheaper by 2035, given the Chinese record on scaling.)

That means the only major vulnerability left is jet fuel, and I’m aware of no real substitues that can scale in the immediate term, though there are efforts underway. Fundamentally, however, air shipping is far less important than ocean shipping, and air travel is a luxury good. Nice to have, but not necessary to have. Jet fuel is important, strategically, for the military.

The point here is that China thinks ahead. They look at strategic vulnerabilities and they do something. This is, in part, about de-carbonization, of course, but strategically it’s a movement towards more self-reliance and less vulnerability. It also emphasizes that hydrocarbons are a wasting asset. You cannot, long term, base your economy on them. You must find a replacement if they’re your main source of foreign exchange.

The world’s changing, and in part it is changing because China is changing it. The great tech revolution of the last 40 years was telecom/chip based, but the fundamental blocks of our society remained hydrocarbon engine based. It’s China, more than anyone else, who is moving as fast as it can to an electrified economy that is not reliant on hydrocarbons, a change in the economic engine which has run our societies since the 40s or so. (The switchover from a coal/steam based economy started much earlier but took a long time.)

China makes the future, the rest of us fight over the bones of the past.

Everyone reads these article for free, but the site and Ian take money to run. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Page 1 of 12

Next

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén