I’ll keep this one short. Israel just hit a major Iranian oilfield. Iran has said it will now hit Gulf oilfields in retaliation. Ali Larijani, probably the last person in the Iranian administration who could have negotiated an off-ramp, has been assassinated.
This war is about to enter the economic devastation phase.
Unless you live in China (bought half the world’s grain production for the last 4 years and massively increased its fuel stockpiles) you’d better start preparing. Stock up on food. Check your local power grid to see how reliant it is on natural gas and oil turbines (Europeans, this is you.) Buy medicine. Acetaminophen, for example, is basically 100% a petroleum product. Figure out how to stay warm or cool and how to cook — can you still get some solar power and batteries. India mostly relies on gas for cooking, and it’s going to run out soon.
Australia’s got maybe 3 weeks of petroleum left. The Gulf States aren’t going to be able to run air conditioning soon. Everyone’s going to start putting export bans on key supply chain items soon. The Chinese have already banned export of natural gas and oil, but this will spread to food, key medicines, etc, etc… if the war goes on much longer.
Don’t assume this is all going to work out, even in most countries which can keep the power on and enough food, there will be price increases. A lot of the world economy is based around oil, gas and… fertilizers. About a third of the world’s fertilizers come from the Gulf, thru the Strait. Even if the war ends in a couple weeks, there will be aftershocks, and, of course, companies like supermarkets will jack up prices then keep them up even after the shock, just like they did during Covid.
But over the next few months expect shortages and increased prices and in some parts of the world straight up energy brown outs.
Unless you’re Chinese or Russian, don’t expect your government to do anything competent to protect you. Even if it can, it won’t, unless you’re part of the 1% at least.
Prepare. Perhaps we’ll be lucky, but don’t be count on it.
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Jefferson Hamilton
You can really only do so much to “prepare.” At this point, the only proper preparation was to, a.) become truly rich ten years ago, or b.) move to China. If you couldn’t do either of those things, there is very little “preparation” you can do, because it’s a long descent, to decidedly not coin a phrase, not a temporary blip.
cc
The US-Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran already involves how many different countries? US, Israel, UK, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Cyprus, the US submarine unprovoked sinking of an unarmed Iranian ship near Sri Lanka, …
The US and nearly all of 32-member NATO have long been arming, funding, and providing military planning and intelligence to Ukraine to use it as a proxy tool and cannon fodder against Russia.
The US has also gone after Venezuela and Cuba, and is apparently in military operations with Ecuador, with allegations of Colombia being impacted.
And the US is escalating its arming of Taiwan province while ostensibly recognizing a One China policy, while Japan threatened involvement on that, too.
Indi from Sri Lanka (https://indi.ca/the-ramadan-war-comes-home-to-sri-lanka/) also reminds of these other government overthrows, “the Empire securing backup aircraft carriers for this war now (look at Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh also. No point couping India, they’re already retarded).”
Now US is trying to round up NATO and other countries as a posse to help it fight in the Strait of Hormuz …
Is the US trying to start World War 3?
The US-Israel assassinations of 86-year-old Khameini (who had a fatwa against nuclear weapons) and of Larijani (“probably the last person in the Iranian administration who could have negotiated an off-ramp”), and their assassinations of negotiators in general, also suggest that the US is intent on starting a world war.
Start a world war, get others to fight and destroy each other, try to get Russia and China to fall for the trap, and sit back in distant North America? Then, like they did in WWII, hold back and only step back in near the end to claim the glory, the spoils, and global dominance when everyone else is badly hurt? Is that the US recipe for renewal of their hegemony?
Bob
There is no one in any government in Europe with even a handful of braincells. I would even daresay the UK, where I have the misfortune tp be, isn’t being governed in any meaningful sense. I don’t think the mechanisms exist for the state to respond to any emergency or crisis. If such mechanisms exist, I find it hard to believe there are adults possessing sufficient intelligence and good character to manage them responsibly.
It’s just a total shitshow.
I hope everyone remembers the Israelis and Americans are entirely responsible.
Bob
Addendum – obviously the Americans and Israelis are not entirely responsible for the lack of government in the UK (although partly, I guess). But they are responsible for global shitshow that we’re in.
NGG
The Mad King now wants an additional 200 Billion from Congress to continue the Iran War. Not to mention 40 Billion to Argentina to bail out Scott Bessent hedge fund pals. And heaven only knows how much the Venezuela and Cuba adventures are costing. He has turned into a war monger. Heaven help us all.
mago
Cue the song: you ain’t seen nothing yet and baby I’m gonna give you something ain’t never gonna forget cause you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Stock up on dog and cat food, too because our animal friends are helpless and need protection just like grandma and me and you.
spud
just look at gold and bitcoin tanking. in a deflating economy, assets you thought were safe, can’t pay bills or put food on the table unless you liquidate them.
looks like liquidation is happening to me.
could rebound, but i bet food and fuel will be at a premium in the near future, and many asset classes will fall, and maybe really fall hard.
what is deflating you say, wages. but price inflation has not abated, its accelerating, making asset classes very unstable except manipulated paper, which the federal reserve is doing all in their power, to maintain levels, yet try to control inflation.
keeping interest rates high will only exacerbate the wage deflation. yet the wars and the balance of payments(which will explode beyond all reason with the war)will fuel the flames of price inflation.
any country that sides with the oligarch empire, their leaders might get the Mussolini treatment.
Jan Wiklund
Here in France where I live we should expect some fighting in the streets, like under the Yellow Vest rising a few years ago. The government buckled somewhat and gave in to some of their demands. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_protests.
Perhaps it would be grander this time since more people will be affected.
someofparts
So banishing Ed Snowden to Russia doesn’t turn out to be the flex our rulers thought it was and the surgeon is going to save me just in time for me and the cat to starve – alrighty then
GlassHammer
Ian,
The tough part is Climate control for whatever dwelling you find yourself in because that takes the largest share of power. You need to get a bit lucky here with the seasons. I would recommend getting caulk and weather stripping because it’s much cheaper to retain the climate in your own home by sealing leaks than generating more power.
I would also recommend getting a portable power station (one of those large lithium iron phosphate batteries) of whatever wastage you can afford. You can charge it on non peak demand hours (when your electricity provider charges less per watt) then charge other small devices during peak demand hours. Doing this dance can slightly lower the cost. Also helps a bit during blackouts.
You also need to think about more basic solutions to tasks that would normally take power. Like air drying clothes on a line or rack. Spot treating clothes vs washing them to reduce the use of a washing machine.
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I guess this means I will have to abandon the alkaline diet I just started. Son of a bitch. Humans ruin everything.
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He has turned into a war monger.
He is, but then again he isn’t. Trump is both everything and yet nothing. Well, nothing except one thing — he’s the greatest, bestest narcissist the planet has ever experienced up to this point in history.
Trump is anything he has to pretend to be in order to continue to attempt to satiate his prodigious, ever-burgeoning ego. Warmonger, peacemaker, feminist, you name it, Trump will feign it, no matter how unconvincingly, so long as it feeds his obese ego.
Trump is Anthony Freemont in The Twilight Zone episode It’s a Good Life. It’s such a perfect metaphor for what we are seeing transpire. I’m certain Rod Serling would agree and the irony is, most people can’t see it yet it’s as plain as day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rjJ-5Sc53I
KT Chong
“Even if the war ends in a couple weeks…”
Like, how?
America is not going to be able to win or unblock the Strait of Hormuz in a couple weeks.
Iran refuses to surrender or even negotiates — every time Iran had tried to negotiate peace with the US, Trump assassinated Iranian delegates and leadership in the middle of the negotiations, (which is dishonorable and pure evil that no one has bothered to point out — Americans have no honor.) Iran would be really stupid to ever negotiate with America again.
So? How will the war end in a couple week? I can’t imagine a realistic solution based on the current trajectory. Can you?
Feral Finster
@Bob: “There is no one in any government in Europe with even a handful of braincells. ”
Europeans like being slaves, sort of like how a dog doesn’t really want to be in charge, he just wants more treats and maybe to eat off the dinner plates.
DMC
It will end when the US and Israel run out of interceptors, or shortly thereafter. They will have to sue for prace on Iran’s terms because they won’t have a choice. Consider that neither of the aircraft carriers sent to the Gulf theater are currently on station and that all the major US radar installations have been destroyed.
KT Chong
TRUMPFLATION or DRUMPFLATION:
• Stagflation (slow growth + high inflation)
• Energy shock
• Food inflation/crisis
• High unemployment
• AI and asset bubble collapse
• Banking and financial system crash
Definition: A situation in which all of the above crises occur simultaneously.
Historical parallels:
• The 1970s featured stagflation and an energy crisis
• The 2008 financial crisis saw asset collapse and a spike in unemployment
• COVID-era disruptions briefly impacted supply chains, inflation, and markets at once
“Trumpflation” or “Drumpflation” = all of these crises happening at the same time.
Frank D Shannon
Sorry, I was being a jerk on twitter.
Ian Welsh
Frank,
remind me of your twitter handle and I’ll unblock you. Thanks for apologizing. (Blocked too many and I can’f find any way to sort and find you.)
Ian
mago
Nothing to do with the stupid and hugely consequential not to mention catastrophic bombing of Iranian oil infrastructure, but wishing L&S a long and healthy life, both physically and mentally.
Remember, when symptoms present, it’s too late.
Whoops. Never mind.
Better judgment says don’t submit, but screw it, we live in ragged crazy times.