Can Europe Win A War With Russia?

If Russia tries to invade the Baltics after it loses in Ukraine, the result will depend on whether the Europeans have let the Ukrainian army into the European Union.

Russia is failing badly in its war against Ukraine. Its original “three-day war” has become a grinding war of attrition, and Ukraine is now striking deep into Russia’s energy and military infrastructure.

Crimea is facing severe fuel and power shortages, and Russian resupply routes to Crimea are under growing pressure. Fuel sales to private motorists have reportedly been halted in Sevastopol, and Ukraine’s attacks on bridges, refineries, power infrastructure, and logistics routes are making Crimea increasingly difficult and costly for Russia to sustain.

Ukraine is also damaging Russia’s oil-refining infrastructure at scale. Russia has been forced to respond with fuel-export bans, emergency tax changes, lower-quality fuel blending, and other measures to manage shortages. Moscow itself has come under Ukrainian drone attack, and Russia is being forced to shift air defenses toward the capital, the Kerch Bridge, and other critical sites.

Russia still has missiles, drones, artillery, and manpower, but it is paying an enormous price for limited gains. Its economy is strained, its logistics are vulnerable, and its ability to protect critical infrastructure is being tested every day.

The EU is a vastly larger marketplace for Chinese goods than Russia. After watching Russia’s failed quick victory in Ukraine, its military incompetence, and the growing strain on its economy, China would be foolish to risk its far more valuable European trade relationship in order to help Russia in a wider war with Europe.

And China is not foolish.

Only the political elites, corrupted by the US, are salivating for war against Russia. My impression is that the proles who would do the actual fighting want no part of it, except perhaps in the Balkans.

Certainly the AFD in Germany, who may be in power sooner than many think, want no part of a conflict with Russia. Mertz and Macron are short-timers. Eventually von der Leyen will loose power. Hopefully, a new generation of leadership will not include such lunatic war mongers.

A generally worthwhile post, Ian, but I’m very confused and flummoxed by these lines, I think a word got transliterated there, maybe “won” for “lost”?
“Nor does history support “you can never beat Russia”, Germany lost in WWII, yes, but it won in World War one, nor was all of Europe fighting with it.”??!! I do not ken the claim here, 99% of conventional historians would disagree, and this is one of the times the conventional view is right.

See here: https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/map/german-territorial-losses-treaty-of-versailles-1919#:~:text=Germany%20lost%20World%20War%20I,economic%20provisions%20on%20defeated%20Germany.

The map tells the story, humiliated and destroyed at Versailles, huge territorial losses, including to not Mighty Poland, future Czech Republic, a small slice for Lithuania, more for Denmark, Belgium and tiny Luxemberg get German territory as well. Thus the resentment over having 100% of the War Blame put on them, the rise of the Freikorps and the Mustache Man and true annihilation (but the Nazi class mostly protected, soon in power again after 1945) in WW II. Demilitarized for years, savage blowback follows.

But back to your thesis, one error can be corrected. In recent months Harper’s did a Cover Story, Has Russia Already Won? I haven’t read it yet, but their coverage over many years since the 2014 Maidan Coup has been uniformly solid, Realist a la John Mearsheimer.

Your comprehensive list of their Alliances contra the Axis of Evil (UK/Macron’s France/Deutscheland as always/the Danes (whether they lose Greenland or not, should have concerns elsewhere), Mark Rutte fulminating on behalf of the Niederlands, a complete moron. US half in, half out, Trump has utter contempt for the Euro-Dwarfs and rightly so. US continues to run the Intell, targeting along with UK, Burnham bragged that Ukraine will get more slavish support from decaying UK whenever he belatedly picks up the Mace of power. US still in more to support Keynesian Militarism and the War Pig Lobbyists than anyone, they all make money from it. Lindsay Graham supposedly given $2.3 million personally from the Euro-Yorkies, Ursula, the usual suspects. But the Hopium is off the charts, as you note, they can never win. Shit, even the WaPo and Financial Times have admitted that Russia a few thousand meters away from taking all of the Donbass, some places like Kramatorsk and the area to the North and West of it will take a little bit later. The fat lady will sing, no later than 2027 I’d guess, probably not this year.

Galloway has many friends in France, Germany, etc. noted yesterday none of the youth will go. Shit, how many Ukrainians turned tail and fled to US, Poland, Germany, etc. etc? Very numerous, the country’s like 40 % smaller population-wise than it was in late February, 2022.

And now I’ll use my NAFO Not-Friends’ claims of 2023, turn their sword against them. There is always a homefront advantage, that clown Beau of the Fifth (State Department) Column, his podcast dead for couple of years now, loved to note, “The side being attacked has a giant advantage, can usually kill 2x as many of the Invaders as die on their own side.” I’m not a Military Expert but know that this view is widely shared, and mostly if not entirely correct.

But between a regional Superpower like Russia, for centuries, and a small, corruption-ridden, backwards, poor country like UKraine, all the billion$$$ in Ordnance and Material stolen from the taxpayers of the Agressive Powers, UK, France, Finland etc. etc. ad nauseum, gets destroyed with little effect. Donbas now NOT being bombed in the Russian-speaking areas, 16,000 dead Ukrainian Russian-speakers not inching up currently.

Biggest factor, as you note, the Russian populace is juiced, ready to fight and die on your legs, not cringe and lose on your knees, have your children raped, murdered or enslaved, all your Land stolen, you become a Serf for the White Aryan self-imagined Ubermenschen of the collective West. Putin is the one who looks like a weak weenie now, the Hard Liners get more support every day. Mercouris defends Vlad P. by saying he is the one man stopping World War 3. Mostly correct for now, but he is only one man, not in his prime, that’s a Sisyphean Task, better to be strong, not a Neville Chamberlain-style vaccilator.

To Jan W, I echoed your point, it’s military Keynesianism plus the Hopium “the Garden always crushes the swarthy Jungle”, Rudyard Kipling, Charge of the Light Brigade, La Gloire Francais arrogant posturing. Tin soldiers and Nixon’s coming . . .

Jan Wiklund: ‘Perhaps they are not aiming at a war at all. Perhaps they are just running some war keynesianism.’

Yet once a EU military-industrial complex exists on that scale it will buy politicians to serve its commercial interests. (As, forex, happens in the US.)

And not only its commercial interests, but its commercial survival. To survive and continue to be profitable to shareholders, a EU-wide military-industrial complex must sell new weapons, if only to replace the previous generation of weapons it sold EU governments.

The most reliable way to persuade EU governments to buy new weapons is by persuading them to go to war so the old weapons are destroyed in that war.

But war-making is increasingly untenable in the 21st century, despite it being the ‘muscle memory’ that the West defaults to (‘Muscle memory’ in the sense that Western elites still assume they’ve something like the technological dominance in weaponry that Western militaries had from, say, the 17th through to 20th centuries). Not only drones and missiles are equalizers. The EU or US could be decimated for less than a $1 million with technologies that are readily available in 2026 —
https://www.technologyreview.com/2006/03/01/229580/the-knowledge/

While there are also the questions about the relationship of imperialism to capitalism that J.A. Hobson and V. Lenin raised in the early 20th century, the ultimate issue is the one Orwell talked about: –

‘The essential act of war is destruction, not necessarily of human lives, but of the products of human labour. War is a way of shattering to pieces, or pouring into the stratosphere, or sinking in the depths of the sea, materials which might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable, and hence, in the long run, too intelligent.’

It’s worth reading the rest of what Orwell was saying here…
https://www.abhafoundation.org/assets/books/html/1984/126.html

Essentially, it’s that if leisure, prosperity and security were enjoyed by all, a hierarchical society of the kind that exists in Europe now would no longer be possible. The people on top wouldn’t be the people on top any longer.

That a minority of human individuals with psychopathic, predatory traits seeks power over others is well known. That this minority has throughout recorded human history constituted the ruling class of most human societies has been a fact tacitly recognized but publicly repressed by our species. The problem is that technological advance now affords such destructive powers —nuclear, biogenetic, robotic—to this ruling class of rather stupid psychopaths as to lead to humanity’s extinction.

The goal ever always only was to drag America into the war, aided by Russian dithering, indecision and incompetence. The hope is that Team D (or Rubio) will be in the White House by 2030 and raring to go.

European strategy since 1917 has been to get Americans to do their fighting for them.

“Then we come to allies: Europe might have America, Russia might have China.”

Don’t kid yourself. China simply hopes that the crocodile will eat them last. China refuses to lend Russia money, lest American sanctions be applied, and refuses to cut of sale of drones to Ukraine, lest the West be angered.

I would quibble over the premise embedded in the phrase “preparing for war”. That implies a process beginning now and culminating in the future.

It seems to me rather obvious that Europe has been engaged in a contest for political domination of Russia and the Russian periphery or “near abroad” for an extended period already.

The coordinated expansion of the EU and NATO has been on-going and marked by considerable hostility to Russia. The Soviet Union and its alliance structure in Eastern Europe was a global superpower, commanding altogether massive populations and resource base. 21st century Russia is not that.

Geopolitically, the Russian Federation with a secure hold on Belarus and Novorossiya is a state configuration with sufficient resources to sustain a claim on great power status. From that base, Russia can be a dominant power in its region able to defend itself and influence its immediate neighbors. That is probably enough of a core to make it impossible for collective Europe to overawe Russia, but if Russia can be denied security in its hold on that core, Russia may be forced into the position of supplicant to Europe.

I don’t think China helps European Russia much in its contest with collective, neoliberal Europe. Without that secure core in Europe as its powerbase, Russia in Asia cannot be sustained against China. China will come to dominate Central Asia and Siberia in the natural course of things without China having to resort to arms. China isn’t going to help Russia enough to prevent a course of development that favorable to China.

As I have written before, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 was a desperation move geopolitically after a highly unfavorable series of losses, losses that have continued to accumulate outside the theatre of actual combat inside Ukraine, since the SMO was initiated.

In some ideal sense, the best outcome for Germany (leading the center of collective Europe) would be an alliance of resource-poor Germany with resource-rich Russia+ Novorossiya and Russia’s gateway to Central Asia and the Caspian region. That’s been true since the 19th century when Welsh miners were sent to the Donbass and the Rothchilds went to Baku for oil.

In every instance, pursuit of the obvious opportunity for a Russian-German economic alliance has escalated into horrendous, mutually destructive war. The Hapsburgs turned against their Russian alliance in the Crimean War to keep their Sickmen of the Balkans dance with the Sultan going; the German Empire, despite Bismarck’s best efforts, planned a conquest of the east and brought down the Romanovs; twenty years later, the Nazis trashed their own lifeline to Russian food and oil to gamble on a plan to exterminate Jews and Slavs wholesale. I dare say there’s a pattern in place. Merkel, the latest rational German statesperson, failed.

The hostility against the Russians in Eastern Europe is a major factor in the geopolitical contest from the Baltic to the Caucasus in organizing popular contests for power along lines of pro-Russian and anti-Russian cleavage. Collective Europe has been ruthless in these contests for local power — installing the French ambassador as President of Georgia for a time, cancelling a Romanian Presidential election, coming close to a ban on the AfD in Germany. Russia seems to have lost loyal Armenia, at least temporarily. I don’t think the extreme measures taken to push out Russian-speakers from the Baltics are much understood in the U.S., but the tenor of propaganda from Timothy Snyder or Anne Applebaum is hard to mistake.

The gamesmanship of the geopolitical contest between collective Europe (institutionally, EU plus NATO) and Russia entails a show of escalation potential on both sides. It is built into the game that Europe has to make a show of escalation potential as a current move in the game already being played.

I seriously doubt the Europeans have any idea of what kind of military capability, defensive or offensive, they should invest in. Almost no one in leadership in Europe has any experience fighting a war or has experience being shot at. And, the technology of war is undergoing an epochal transition (hardly a secret in itself but it does compound the natural political tendency to choose bad generals and useless equipment after a long peace). Peacock feathers may be displayed to frighten with dazzling effect. Who knows? I half expect the Russians or Ukrainians to deploy robot dogs of war at any moment — and the revulsion and fear that follows such a nightmare may be beyond anticipation.

Europe has a lot of levers it can pull, far short of conquest or continuous combat, if the levers can be made to seem legitimate. I don’t think Russia has great options in reply and its propaganda apparatus (at least as far as reach into the West is concerned) is very weak, so dressing up retaliation in carefully crafted theatrical stage sets may not be persuasive among the audiences where it could undermine the ability of Western leaders to act aggressively.

Worse, my sense is that patience at home in Russia is wearing out. Russia, Oleshniks notwithstanding, remains militarily disadvantaged by its positions. Its critical frontiers are largely naval and it is neither equipped nor positioned well to project naval power.

I don’t think Russians like to think of the Russian Federation as a second-rate power at best and the strategic patience exercised by Putin (which I regard as approximately his best option in the hot war with Ukraine) is hard to sustain support for indefinitely without visible results. We do not know casualty rates for either side for sure, but the most believable guesstimates imply a considerable strain on a country, especially one already in a demographic deficit. The Russian people, I expect, will want some dramatic demonstration of Russian power to force Zelensky or his successors to a settlement, even if a settlement is a long time coming after it seems to become (from a Russian POV) an inevitability.

Maybe a Ukrainian collapse is coming soon . . . how would we know? And, how do the Russians manage the political theatrics if it (or a simulacrum) does come about?

Of course, the meatspace of nation-states is already obsolete so . . . The Liquidation of the West:

https://open.substack.com/pub/schwabianobserver/p/the-quiet-liquidation-of-the-western?

Wow, the NAFO Trolls are really out in their multitude, the worst, below LAS, Tallifer has crawled out from under his/her/their rock. Laughable; you’ve been wrong about everything over the last 3 years, but now your Imaginary Pony “Victory” will be materialized out of a Cocaine Cloud?

If Ukraine is “winning bigly,” why do they continue to have to dragoon men and even male children off the streets, throw them violently into vans, give then 10 days of military training at best, when 3-5 years would be needed, throw them out onto a Front Line to die; at one point 2 years ago, there was a group whose average lifespan when activated was 8 hours!!

I will grant the obvious, the Ukrainians have their little Narrative/ PR ”victories,” not actually taking territory, but billions of $$$ of German, UK etc. made drones, fired NOT against the Russian Military, but in Terrorist events against civilians, as was practiced in the Donbass, post-Maidan. I bet all you racist NAFO scum are giddy about the murdered children, that speaks to who you really are. See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Starobilsk_strike

Wikipedia US-State Dept. owned and directed, “maybe” 21 children and youths killed, 42 more injured!! Wow, brilliant, that will make the filthy Russian scum surrender and bare their necks to be gashed open, right? Uhhm, not hardly.

Now I’m completely in agreement with Finster’s very well-informed comment, yes, Putin’s brain is Western-captured, “Why do they hate us, I don’t understand? We’re a rich, sophisticated country and are very Western in most ways, Techno music popular in Clubs, world-class ballet, stores brimming with consumer goods, why can’t you just leave us alone?” George Galloway currently living with wife and younger children near Moscow, mentions how rich, cosmopolitan it is. He must be lying, right? Same attested to by Larry Johnson, Scott Ritter, and former CIA official Ray McGovern, who speaks fluent Russian, who have been there as well.

This Western fantasy goes back centuries, the Anglo-French Alliance in Crimea failed badly, bad luck, their Navy was bottled up in a Harbor during a giant storm, all the ships sunk, Florence Nightingale famous for treating some war survivors, etc. Hard to believe Putin doesn’t know the history, impossible in fact. He keeps wanting to play by Marquis of Queensbury Rules, slow-grind, as noted, the Hardliners will dominate soon, the sooner the better.

If Russia’s “losing” so badly, why is there not even a Draft? Much less dragooning healthy young people forced to the Multiple fronts? And how many of you cowards have skin in the game? I understand the ones like LAS, and the Nazi Family-aligned Chrystia Freeland in Canada, here grandpa was a cheerful, warm old man who from roughly 1937-45 ran a Der Sturmer knockoff newspaper, the paper plant stolen from a Jewish family who fled and survived, the family also awarded a house taken from Jews liquidated at a Concentration Camp. Grandpa wasn’t prosecuted after the war, was in Ukraine after all, Western Ukraine where Banderist “Aryan” “Kill the Slavs” ideology dominates, Galicia. The Der Sturmer Editor was hung by the neck at Nuremburg, fair enough. And we have our own “Toria” Nuland, Nudelman too goofy a name, “New Land” suggests stealing from the Untermensch, see Anne Apfelbomb as well (misspelling deliberate), her husband Tweeted “Thank you, USA!!” when Biden admin bombed Nordstream. Then took it down half an hour later. So great that 10 months later, the IMF and World Bank announced Deutscheland dropped a notch to the 5th largest economy, Russia rose a notch to 4th largest.

As to Finster’s musing whether US/France/UK et al will someday swallow Ghina after eating the smaller allies, Iran, Pakistan, Russia etc. that will never happen. Whose running the Pentagon now? Why no massive Victory on Kharg island and stealing all the Iranian oil? Not too easy to invade and control a massive country, the size of most of Western Europe. You’re 100% correct on the “Drag the Americans In” strategy though. If elections even allowed to occur under Trump 47, the Dems would be all in for a World War with Russia, but to repeat myself with what bodies? With what weapons? US weapons stocks pretty depleted, EUrope continues to pump in drones, but US giving Ukraine only Strategic Targeting Data for the terrorist attacks.

I challenge the Banderist Peanut Gallery, please share with me ANY frontline in which the Zelensky Regime has gained territory in the last 6 months to year? A single one, please? I won’t hold my breath obviously.

Great Reality-based Community comments from bruce wilder, spud, Oakchair as always, great post from newbie rkka as well.

In closing, I want to hear about all that territory gained, y’all are so certain, where is your actual evidence? You’re like the Pentagon clowns who got trapped by their Arrogance fighting the Taliban for 2 decades, never recognized the truth of how people in a Bronze Age Culture and economy wearing sandals could defeat them. Never learned the lesson of the Vietnam War either. Biden surrendered, US fled with their tails between their legs, and only for one reason. To start the now failed Invasion and Break-up of Russia.

Oh, one time the Russians did lose a war was the Russo-Japanese war of 1904–05. But that was a short victory, just over disputed islands mainly. That victory got utterly reveresed in 1943–45.

LAS always gets upset when I want to send him over to his NAFO buddies in Lawyers, Guns and Money. But they have grown up a bit, threw the We Will Destroy Russia and Kill them All pacifier aside; I just looked and they have the most recent 10-12 articles all about how bad, dumb, stupid Trump is. Fair enough, I agree with much of that. But just doing Identity Politricks gesturing, they know Ukraine is toast, I would assume. No longer doing absurd posts from the dude who spent 2 months in “Keev”, never saw a single Nazi. To be fair, perhaps he was a blind man.

In closing, I’ll quote Jello Biafra, “Nazi Punks fuck off.” (None of you will go to Ukraine and fight, will you? You want other people’s children to do so.) LAS, you mentioned having children, have you asked them to go? Did any bite? I’d love to hear your updates on the frontlines if so.

Do you clowns of the Ukraine/Russian descent imagine that you’re going to get your old Dachas, Farmlands and enslaved Serfs back? Sorry, clowns, not going to happen.

It’s been my understanding that Putin was fighting this as a war of attrition and that the AFU is simply running out of warm bodies. Short of NATO boots on the ground, I don’t see how this ends any other way than a Russian win. And I don’t care how you feel about Putin, but the Banderites are out and out Nazis. And if you think that’s hyperbole, look up Stepan Bandera and what he and his followers did.

@clkern:

“Military Keynesianism won’t work in Europe because they don’t have the primary resources – mainly metals & petrofuels – required for such a project. ”

Europe can buy resources. Yes, China will be happy to sell.

Short-sighted? Yes, but the Chinese claim to legitimacy is based on rising standards of living.

The West is indifferent to such things, as its rulers care only for power, domination and control. In other words, they are perfectly happy to impoverish their populations or worse, if that means that they personally retain power.

I’m fairly certain, nay sure, that if Iranian drones were hitting D.C. and other major cities in America and oil refineries and military manufacturers like Lockheed Martin, the Russophiles would be declaring America defeated. Hell, America bombs the bejesus out of Iran but fails to elicit a capitulation and instead America’s standing in the Middle East is diminished versus maintained or bolstered, and the Russophiles have claimed America is defeated. Not even Chas Freeman makes that claim. He is of the opinion Iran didn’t win the war or isn’t winning the war, but instead not losing it, not yet at least, and in fact perhaps it, Iran, has elevated its power position in the Middle East. In the least, a reordering of the power structure in the region is in process.

The cognitive dissonance is so thick, you need a chainsaw to cut through it. It’s positively palpable, especially for the brainwashed Russian people who haven’t fled the country. They have been told Russia is winning the war and victory is any day now and yet gas lines everywhere and fires and black rain in Moscow of all places.

Shorter LAS: “Lookit all the smoke, Ukraine has WON!!!” Gaza has been bombed flat and the Zionist IDF/IOF control 57% of Gaza, yet people still survive and stay on their land; just watching the Grayzone now, the MoU between Iran and US is mostly enforced, 100s of Lebanese returning to their badly damaged villages in the Southern Beirut suburbs and trying to fix their houses, businesses, etc. but by your braindead metric, “Israel has won!!”

And where’s all those hundreds of square meters that Ukraine is taking back? I asked, crickets, you know you have nothing but the desperate, “Look over there, a shiny thing!” None of your buddies came up with anything either, I’d be shocked if anyone did.

” . . .the brainwashed Russian people who haven’t fled the country”!! You are comedy gold, friend. Not you nor any of your Troll pals rebutted my shared take by everyone who visits Russia that it’s wealthy, people have good morale and are genuinely patriotic. Russian speakers in Ukrainian territory (apart from Zelensky and the top Azov hooligans) would be beaten badly if they spoke one word of Russian, more likely the men would be castrated and the women raped, then killed. The Banderists (your heroes) filmed themselves torturing and castrating captive Russian troops. That’s how Nazis behave. And that claim is not coming from ME, it comes from “The Mozart Group’s” main commander, British mercenary and US Marine Andy Milburn, who commanded Ukrainian troops who lost his job when he went on a Military nerd podcast, got drunk on good whisky with the 2 hosts and admitted of Ukraine, “It’s a fucked up society,” “They film themselves torturing people even though we told them not to,” “They’re violating the Geneva conventions.” And that was like 3+ years ago!!

You’re a genocide apologist on a par with the likes of Flori-duh Rep. fat Randy Fine, congratulations, you’ve earned it. But the tide is turning, Mamdami (who you lied would never do ANYTHING progressive) and his Allies changed the face of NYC politics in the last week, being a Genocider is no longer popular, Dan Goldman out, beat by the less odious (still somewhat genocidal) Brad Lander, a fellow Jew.

You can’t have it both ways, sorry. Either you think that murdering children in a school is good (the case I cited) or you could step away from that steaming pile of shit, but no, you practically embrace it.

Cheerleading murdering children because of their ethnicity is not somewhere most Normies would go.

DMC, 100%.

Waiting for all those NAFO trolls to respond to me on the great Ukrainian Victories this year, only the 2nd most fanatical, Lie and Suborn, did so. Tallifer shot their load, knows better than to return and take a 2nd dump.

Came out and said if you blow up one important piece of infrastructure you have won a War!! Essentially saying that when Timothy McVeigh bombed the Oklahoma City Alfred P. Murrah Government Center, killing lots of children in daycare, killing 167 and injuring 684, it didn’t ignite the Right Wing Rebellion against the overly kind federal government, we’re living under Fascism now, but not due to Tim McV., the 2 party duopoly got us there eventually.

By LAS’s metric, Terrorism is noble and good, doesn’t matter how many or who you kill, it creates positive social change. Wow, just wow!! But unlike Andy Milburn, who certainly has actually killed people, and been shot at himself, terrorism is just a cute game and a P.R./Narrative effort, good clean fun to LAS. I doubt he’d have the balls to do such a thing himself (hell, he said he stopped being a CPA, which I commended at the time, must have limits somewhere) he fantasizes about murdering filthy Orcs (Ukrainian soldiers also call them “faggots”) indiscriminately. He’s akin to Andrew Tate. When Trump came to power Tate went online and recorded himself saying of the brown people, the Greenland population, etc. while lifting weights, “Invade their countries!! Blow up their shit! Take their shit!” A black man hopped up on steroids cheering on that level of thuggery against non-white people.

It takes all kinds. But some kinds have to be kept at a safe distance.

If I weren’t a free speech absolutist, I might email Ian and request LAS’s removal from the site. I won’t go there, though. I have seen others banned for language on a level with LAS’s. He is a great negative lesson about what happens to people who go down a Rabbit Hole of Ethnic Hatred and longing for bloodshed and carnage. Don’t even see his confederates coming back on here arguing, they spew their hatred then tag out. Persistence is a virtue until it isn’t. LAS not exactly winning friends and influencing people here.

@spud:

This would require Russia to act with an assertiveness that they have entirely lacked so far.

The Russian leadership does not want to fight. That alone causes the West to smell blood.

hate greed and warfare are the norm
all hail your god and king
bow down and give respect
cause you ain’t seen nothing yet

On the “Germans beat Russia in WW I”–yes, they did. They lost the overall war, but they beat Russia. Which is to say, they creamed the Russian army and successfully signed a favourable peace deal. Could they have CONQUERED Russia at that time? Well, now, that’s a very different question. So perhaps rather than saying it’s impractical to DEFEAT Russia, it would be more accurate to suggest that it is incredibly difficult to CONQUER Russia. Just too damn big.

As to the current war, Russia is winning, but I’d have to say I don’t think they’re real happy with how it’s going. The damage Ukraine is doing to Russia is real, the damage they’re doing to Russian logistics in Crimea is serious and could lead to a Ukrainian offensive with some success in that area. They have had some success in counterattacks in Zaporozhia. Drones have allowed them to hang tough on the defensive for far longer than they could have without that huge technological shift on the battlefield. It is not going all Russia’s way, or how the Russian high command would prefer it to be going. They’d really prefer all that stuff wasn’t happening.

But that said, Russia has nonetheless done FAR more damage to Ukraine and the Ukrainian armed forces than Ukraine has done to them. At the moment, Ukraine and Russia are attacking each other with similar amounts of long-distance drones, but Russia has much better defences so does not get actually hit with as many. Still more than they’d like, but not as many. But on top of that, Russia is still doing damage with bombs dropped from planes, missiles, and even some old fashioned artillery. Ukraine doesn’t have much of any of that. They do have some missiles, mostly from the Brits, but not in comparable numbers. Where Russia has lost serious logistics capability in one place on the front, Ukraine’s logistics and military capabilities and manufacturing have been seriously eroded over the whole country.

And the attrition at the military level continues at a solid pace. Some hackers claim to have gotten hold of Ukrainian casualty numbers; apparently 2.4 million Ukrainian troops dead or missing, 400,000 of which are from so far this year. I don’t think Ukraine is replacing troops at a rate of 400,000 per half-year. Already I hear some sections of the front are held almost entirely by a few drone squads. At some point men, materiel and/or logistics erode to the point where sections of the front just can’t be held. Probably if they mount a serious counterattack around Crimea, that just accelerates the time when that happens, even if the counterattack is tactically successful.

As to a possible more direct war between Europe and Russia . . . I think they would find themselves dealing with the same problem Russia has, only much worse. Drones favour the defence massively at the level of taking territory. In such a war, Russia would be on the defensive, and Europe would be getting creamed by drones as they tried to advance. The difference being that Russia is fundamentally much stronger than Ukraine, and so the drone revolution on the battlefield can drastically slow the Russian win but cannot in the end stop it. Whereas Europe is not fundamentally much stronger than Russia in military matters, and so trying to take the offensive against a Russia with, now, much more experience in drone warfare than Europe, would lead to European armies being fed into a meatgrinder. And I don’t think Europe has the stones or the unity to keep up an aggressive war of attrition for all that long once the casualties start mounting up.

This is a very good thing, because if Europe attacked Russia and Russia felt really threatened, there would be a nuclear war and we would all die. It really creeps me out that hardly anyone seems to notice this problem any more.

Almost nobody in Europe is planning to INVADE Russia or nuts enough to want a war. (If some fascist lunatics do so, they are concealing it carefully.) Europeans are preparing to RESIST a Russian invasion. They think that there is a significant danger of one, especially if Russia wins the war with Ukraine. I think that they are correct, though I suspect there is some excessive alarmism.

A defensive war is easier to prevail in than an aggressive one, as the war in Ukraine has already shown. In any case, almost anything is better than being conquered by Russia.

This site has a lot of astute political analysis, but I do not understand its frequent hostility toward Europe.

I live in Finland, and there is a lot fear here that Russia might invade Finland, starting from the sparsely populated Fnnish Lapland. Do you think Finland is not a part of Europe either?

In any case, if Russia would conquer a Baltic or Nordic country, it would only be a matter of time before it would advance southward to the rest of Europe.

Europeans are fast losing faith that U.S.A would help to defend them. There are even fears that U.S.A. would itself attack them, as Trump has often talked of annexing Greenland. Therefore an increase in military spending is a minimal sensible precaution.

You wrote that “They need to fix their society and economy, and starting wars they can no longer win won’t do that.” But the globalist Professional and Managerial Caste (PMC) that rules over EU-rope sees that the other way round: conducting and escalating a war aganst Russia gives them the opportunity to declare a state of emergency – following the playbook written by Carl Schmitt – and to finish political opposition and civil and political liberties; therefore they do not need to win the war. War is merely a means of securing domestic control.

Ian has competently rebutted Mika Oksanen, I will simply note that the claims by M.O. (method of operation; paid?) are an absurd trope that we will hear from the likes of Tallifer and the stupidest of the NAFO dregs.

The misogynist Troll Dave Sim, a far-right loony from Canada who for 30 years had a very successful, clever Fantasy-Parody comic, “Cerebus”, loved to troll the Libs in the 1-3 pp. of commentary he would add to every issue. He dangled something that was half-true or somewhat true, scored some decent hits overall, anyway here’s his take:

The Libs wake up and while preparing breakfast “believe 6 impossible things” before taking the first bite.

Well this is what folks like Tallifer and M.O. are doing. They advocate 2 lies, which totally contradict one another, do not see the category error. Simply:

1. Russia is totally weak and ineffective, it is about to collapse any day now. Early in the war they had no soldiers or weapons, they were “fighting with shovels”, also “washing machine chips” used to run their planes, etc.

2. Russia is the German Reich rehabilitated, ruthlessly driving Westward to take over plucky little Ukraine, then Poland, then blah blah blah . . .

BOTH of these cannot be true at the same time, in fact neither is true. But Narrative Rules, just keep repeating Ukraine will Win, NLP (Neuro-linguistic programming) sometimes spurs individuals to making money, getting laid, or whatever. It does for individuals. As a military Plan it is dogshit, however.

Many good responses since I last commented. I first want to thank Dan Kelly as well as Purple Library Guy, they are both on fire (in a good way) and make excellent points. PLG’s first paragraph clarified what I partially misunderstood from Ian in the original post, my thanks to him. See here– “On the “Germans beat Russia in WW I”–yes, they did. They lost the overall war, but they beat Russia. Which is to say, they creamed the Russian army and successfully signed a favourable peace deal. Could they have CONQUERED Russia at that time? Well, now, that’s a very different question. So perhaps rather than saying it’s impractical to DEFEAT Russia, it would be more accurate to suggest that it is incredibly difficult to CONQUER Russia. Just too damn big.

As to the current war, Russia is winning, but I’d have to say I don’t think they’re real happy with how it’s going.” All solid logic but for one very big flaw. Yes, Russia got sidelined and had to pull OUT of WW II due to the heavy losses its lousy army, navy etc. was taking, instead left the field and the serfs and Bolsheviks and others put their energy into a domestic Civil War against the Czar, leads to October 1917 Revolution some time later. This was the ONLY smart thing to do at the time, if it had stayed on the battlefield it would’ve had large amounts of territorial losses. PLG’s point that they would’ve just retreated East as was done countless x before also correct.

Where he blunders though, is in saying that “They lost the overall war, but they beat Russia. Which is to say, they creamed the Russian army and successfully signed a favourable peace deal.” Well, sort of true for a very short time, temporary and Pyrrhic “Victory.” Germany’s favorable peace deal was blown up at Versailles as we all know, by the other “Great Powers”, the biggest Loser, the first to see exhaustion & starving, rebelling troops. Dog-eat-dog, kick the weakest in the teeth, that’s good realpolitik 101. (Ukraine clearly headed this way currently, at least the sane can see it.) The “Stab in the Back” somewhat true, thus you have the rise of Hitler and Fascist Jag-off Fantasies, Banderists in W. Ukraine have always been thus.

To my comrade and friend mago, I’m not offended by your criticism, there is a small thread of truth in what you say, but I think you misunderstand me. I’m not “sugar-coating” anything, please go back and read what I have been saying about Putin and the Dual Loyalty Zionist crowd inside Russia who Dan K so eloquently and clearly calls out. I have been saying I have Zero respect for Putin, he needs to be couped, he’s garbage, I compared him to Joe Biden in his shambolic term. When you have rotting meat in your fridge, throw it out, you don’t want maggots. Is that “sugar-coating”? Not hardly.

On the other hand, mago, I want to thank you for a recent reply to the biting fly LAS when he (pointlessly, how many here take him seriously? 1? 2? No more than that) attacked you, you shared the 3 modes of effective action, the last being “secret.” Well done. What is secret is not the famed Hermetic Obscurantim per Obscurantis (otherwise known as “throwing dust in the eyes of the profane”), it is doing the hard work to grow wiser spiritually, learning a kind of metaphysical ju-jitsu so your “opponent” never lays a fist on you.

See William Blake’s comment viz Swedenborg, “Opposition is true friendship.” Iron sharpens steel. The method of dialectical argument and dialogue leads one onto higher truths, even if Dialectical Materialism is bullshit. I learn from my actual enemies, as well as my friends, hopefully we all do. The only thing LAS has taught me is that stupidity is blind, but very energetic.

I’ll close with a link to Bernhardt at MoA, he’s of course posting just as Ian is at this time, see here– https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/06/ukraine-isnt-winning.html

For those who can’t be bothered to read him (he does make some semantic errors, Moral for Morale, etc) I’d cut/paste the following gem:

“The Ukrainian army is in its ever worst position. Moral(e) is terrible, losses are high and the recruitment methods are getting more and more brutal.

The Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Syrski has long insisted on creating new ‘assault’ brigades instead of filling up the shrinking regular brigades which attempt to hold grounds.

A recent investigation by the Ukrainian outlet Babel reveals murder and torture in the recruit training camps of the 425th Assault Regiment Skala (Rock) (machine translation):

A battered head, torn hands, a chiseled lower back, dirty and broken fingers. In this state, 35-year-old Oleksandr Semenov came to the hospital in Kropyvnytskyi in January 2026. He said that he escaped from the 425th separate assault regiment “Rock”, where he was abused, beaten, tied to an ATV and dragged on the ground. In a video taken by local doctors, the man said that he witnessed at least nine suicides in the unit, briefly described their circumstances and named one of the dead. The video at Babel’s disposal was filmed on January 23, 2026, and a few days later, Oleksandr Semenov died in the hospital. The official cause of death is pneumonia.

“The Rock” is the largest assault regiment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Unofficially, it is also called “Syrsky’s”. It is not part of any corps, but is directly subordinate to the high command. “The Rock” took part in the most difficult battles of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Despite this and combat merits, the regiment is often criticized by the military, journalists and relatives of those who got there. Due to accusations of heavy losses, the regiment has gained a reputation as “meat”. However, “The Rock” loses people not only on the battlefield, but even before combat — during military training – it counted 26 deaths.
…

The newly recruited soldiers, snatched from the streets, are living in guarded tents. Going to the toilet is only allowed in groups and under the eyes of an armed soldier. Grounds around the training camp are mined. Torture is routine. People who try to flee will be shot and/or get brutalized to death.

Strana reports that the “Rock” is far from the only such unit.

The mass death of Ukrainian soldiers due to torture while in training is probably what the State Department considers as ‘winning’.

Russia has meanwhile initiated a new campaign against Ukrainian transport infrastructure and logistics. Targets are locomotives, truck depots, large post office warehouses (which run Ukraine’s military logistics), oil storage facilities and petrol stations of which more than 150 have been destroyed so far.

The slow squeeze continues. Ukraine isn’t winning.”

THIS is Tallifer’s and LAS’s brave new world of “Winning, so much winning you’ll see you might get tired of it” as the Donald would say. Beyond Orwell’s Foot kicking a face eterntally, it is a Zionist Rape and Torture dungeon for Palestinian men, women, and children, transferred to the Slavic hinterlands. Zelensky’s promise to become Big Israel will never be fulfilled but they sure are trying.

This is why the trolls will never put any skin in the game beyond keyboard commando activities. (Yes, I do kca in response, better than the alternative of staying silent.)

Peace!! Peace to the Cottages, War on the Mansions and Billionaire Bunkers.

@Feral Finster, comment to me: It doesn’t sum up. Why should they take the risks? They will win little if they win and loose great if they loose.

The need for public investments, on the other hand, is real. Without it they will be left behind and end up as some Latin American republics. But the bourgeoisie hates public investments, unless it’s armaments. War is the only thing that can’t be done by private businesses, so far.

@PLG:

“But that said, Russia has nonetheless done FAR more damage to Ukraine and the Ukrainian armed forces than Ukraine has done to them. ”

Nobody cares about Ukraine or Ukrainians. What Russia has done is the equivalent of kicking a dog that nobody cares about or even likes very much. This assures the NATO countries that they are off limits, so party on!

Mika thinks he is a Russian whisperer. Russia is always about to collapse but at the same time poised to overrun us all ZOMG.

@jan W:

“@Feral Finster, comment to me: It doesn’t sum up. Why should they take the risks? They will win little if they win and loose great if they loose.”

If you’ve ever seen a dog bark at the mailman, you’ll know why. The dog wants Master to fight the mailman, while the dog barks joyously from a safe distance.

Because Russia is seen as the anti-europe, the anti-Christ to the european Christ, if that were not racist, sexist and homophobic.

Because empire. Europeans cannot and will not fight themselves, but they love seeing the Americans sock it to third world countries, and they can stand back and kvetch from a safe distance.

It’s not so much letting NATO put nukes in your country as letting the US put nukes in your country. The weapons all have American PAL lockouts, with NATO’s role being weapons delivery. I don’t know whether all of the bases where nuclear weapons also host nuclear capable US aircraft in addition to the NATO aircraft tasked for nuclear delivery or not (i.e., whether the US could unilaterally deliver the weapons without NATO / host nation permission).

As a technical note, all of the deployed weapons in Europe are B61 gravity bombs – no missiles.

L&S:

“Nazis …it’s complicated. And besides, the Csto Institute says so.”

I’m sure it wouldn’t be nearly so complicated if it were Trump (“most evil peraon who had ever lived!”) or another tribal enemy.