Short Take on Iran, Russia and the Ukraine: Cui Bono?

Actually, I don’t see Ukraine suffering at all from this. Quite the opposite, in fact. Iran will no longer be able to supply Russia with Shahed drones, and Russia either has to divert its own resources to support one of its purported allies, Iran, or it will have once again failed to aid one of its allies as it did with Syria, Venezuela, and now Cuba.

As far as the Middle East sucking all of the oxygen out of the room re: providing anti-air defense support, U.S. support for Ukraine has been laughable at best. But Europe and others are distancing themselves from Trump/US regarding Iran, and I don’t see what’s happening there in any way affecting continued European support for Ukraine.

vmsmith: If Iran has chosen to attack the energy infrastructure of the Arab states then it it’s more likely Russia will donate free of charge several 100’s drones each month. Degrading Qatar and Saudi gas and oil production is a win for Russia. The EU will lose it’s second biggest gas supplier over summer. The time when you fill up your storage tanks in preparation for winter. Russia could make the cost back with ease due to higher prices.

Higher energy prices = higher living costs in the West = upset voters.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/02/energy-prices-surge-as-tanker-disruptions-facility-shutdowns-rattle-global-supply/

“Saudi Arabia intercepted Iranian drones that attacked the Ras Tanura oil refinery near Dammam and the refinery was shut down as a precaution, Saudi state television reported. Market attention has focused on whether the conflict will widen to other oil-producing countries in the region. ”

“The strait is also a key route for liquefied natural gas. European futures contracts for April delivery shot up to 45.46 euros (US$53.26) on the ICE commodities exchange after QatarEnergy said it would stop its production of liquefied natural gas. The state-owned firm blamed the war for the decision.

Qatar is a major gas supplier for Europe, which relies on shipments of liquefied gas, or LNG, to replace supplies of Russian pipeline gas lost due to the invasion of Ukraine.”

Prices on Gas is up 40% in EU. It looks like a smart move to burn the energy sector of the Gulf. Iran will of course also suffer but for them it win or die at any cost. Prince Fat-Ass of Saudi may feel the pain.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/india-europe-feel-fuel-crunch-as-gulf-gas-supplies-disrupted-amid-war

“The Dutch TTF natural gas contract, considered the European benchmark, shot up more than 33 percent, having rocketed almost 40 percent on Monday.”

The US is claiming that Iran is engaged in indiscriminate unprovoked attacks. So the US will protest anything with a straight face – rules for thee, but not for me.

I also do not think Ukraine will collapse as a battlefield foe because of this. They are manufacturing their own drones too. When the West stops supplying interceptors civilians will suffer more, but it won’t cause a battlefield collapse.

The reason that imagery looks surreal is because it is AI generated. A large, large majority of what is circulating right now is either AI generated, mis-specified (i.e., not actually from this conflict), or old. I think I’ve only seen three pieces indicative of ballistic missile attacks involving more than one or two vehicles; even the drone attacks have involved small numbers (I don’t think blue/green forces have been *that* effective at attriting them).

This is a qualitative shift from last summer – they are much more heavily weighted towards drones than they were. Everything looks less cohesive, much smaller scale, more scattered targeting, with what I think are indications of rushed mission planning.

I suspect we’re going to see a more pronounced shift towards counter-value targeting. It looks to me like there’s already been some of that, but as Iran starts feeling the need to have more painful effects I think they’re going to end up shuffling closer to redline targets. Classically this would be oil-related infrastructure , but I’m sure there’s lots of other things in this bucket.

Mary, Mary, quite contrary, how does your garden shmoe? There’s a ton of “Slava Ukraina!” trolls carpet-crawling out from the woodwork to say the South will Win, Dixie forever, yay Stepan Bandera!! NAFO has declined in #s but still has the desperate dregs.

When someone says something deeply ignorant they should be called out. And all you basement-dwelling fascist nostalgists need to put your wheezing bourgeois bodies on the line, travel to Ukraine and sign up. As I’ve pointed out (echoing the great Norman Finkelstein), nobody from NYC’s “Little Odessa” massive Diaspora is going to die for a Fascist Fantasy. (Wo)man UP!! Nobody else gonna do it.

Speaking of nostalgists, the AI story is pretty desperate. We’re only 4 days into the possibly World War, as I type. ventzu makes a very important point, the Zionists are trying out their Final Solution in Gaza and the West Bank right now, starvation, rapine, murder. Even Trumpy says they “can’t” annex the West Bank, but if the Euro-slugs have any say, the genocide in Palestine will be completed. Yet millions in the diaspora in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and across the world (South and Central America, USA, etc. I taught many wonderful Palestinian students in Northern California, I only knew one who was a total asshole, spoiled little prick with oppositional defiant disorder, story was he had 5 sisters, the only boy, a little Princeling like the Shah). As Ali Abunimah observed (I repeat myself) the Colonial Racists can exterminate millions but rarely all. Ancient societies have resources to survive.

Dubai hit hard, all the millionaire colonial expats are fleeing on the earliest flights out, if there are any, speaking of carpet-crawlers wincing in the light.

Will the Saudi Princelings see some revolts? What about among the massive East Asian indentured slaves in the Gulf Monarchies, who are something like 75% of the population? Jordan secure?

The Saudi Princelings were betting on USA, but it’s looking pretty sketchy under Trump domestic crackdown and senile, endless bad moves. And hey, Cat’s out of the Bag, our insane Ambassador to Israel (who’s looking forward to seeing all the “filthy Jews” “burn in the Lake of Fire forever” when 900-foot Jaybus returns for revenge) told the Press that Israel has an Old Testament Land Deed to East Asia from the Mediterranean to the Euphrates, “they can take it all” were his exact words I believe. And yes, Northern half of KSA was on that map, including Medina and Mecca.

“Nothing to see here” denialism from the dead-enders, pathetic given the Chaos unleashed. And yes, I agree with whomever (in this thread or the last?) observed the fat Emperor Slob won’t be welcomed in Ghina, he invited himself like the pig that he is. I expect a self-respecting leader with his hand on the tiller like Xi will not spare time on him, just like Antony Blinken was laughed at and told to go away. Somebody’s “not holding any cards”, as Vance & Trump noted to the Green Goblin in February of last year, the Empire holds Lotsa cards no doubt, but most are bad. It’s not the early 90s, we haven’t even taken Greenland yet.

Thanks to Mark Level for being the moral voice of reason here.

Mark, are you in the northeast area? I’d love to meet you sometime to discuss the insanity of the world.

If interested, send Ian your details and I’ll do same.

Nothing is gained here.

You know, it’s funny: Given your overall tone and style, I’ve long thought that you yourself live in a basement!

Oh how wrong we can be.

By the way: What’s the last war/warmongering military adventure you fought in and on whose side did you fight?

Thank you as always for your thoughtful comments.

Sean Paul Kelley, the offer is extended to you as well.

Actually, I will be in Texas – though not planning at this point to visit San Antonio – but I will be in your ‘neck of the woods’ this summer.

If you’re not jetting off to somewhere around the globe and if you can take some time off from attemtping to short and long the world, I’d love to meet and buy you a beer.

Just let me know Sean Paul.

@vmsmith:

“But Europe and others are distancing themselves from Trump/US regarding Iran…”

Sayasaywhat?

Hi, Mary. No, I live nowhere near the Northeast, never wealthy enough (until recently, but no desire) to live there, did visit friends in Vermont around 2004 and did a fun day-trip to Montreal.

Nope, I don’t live in a basement, 2nd floor apartment in New Mexico, clean air, surrounded by beautiful mountains, lotsa ravens here.

What is my “Military” service?– well, there’s some borderline stuff there. I was in High School during the Vietnam War, I supported the Viet Cong (quietly, didn’t want to get beat up) once I saw friends’ older brothers coming home as basket cases, psychopaths, drunks and junkies. So “the glories” of service didn’t appeal to me.

Forced to drop out of college at age 19 due to threats from my right-wing dad, spent a year toiling in the packing center of a pre-Amazon, very dull, then I went to Western Louisiana and worked in the oil patch, toughened up, had to fight with Redneck workmates who attacked me, I was in the “Merchant Marine” in the Gulf of Mexico, posted on a large freight boat taking oil pipes, drilling mud, groceries etc. first from Morgan City, Louisiana (named for the Pirate on the Rum Bottle), then the Hellish Port Arthur Texas, where my brown Spanish skin exposed me to the first serious racism I’d ever experienced (it was no stigma in the Chicago area.)

How’s this for being under fire, or nearly so? 1983-84 I took a trip from Texas to Nicaragua overland (my girlfriend along the first half of the trip) across Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, picked coffee as a volunteer for 11 weeks, interrupted when I had to leave for boozhy Costa Rica to renew my visa (beautiful place also). En route my girlfriend and I were rousted off a bus by Guatemalan Child Soldiers, little runts holding big Semi-Automatics, larger than themselves. The people there, as in Honduras, had severely stunted growth due to poverty after Eisenhower couped their government, for years in the 50s, children in that region had about a 50% chance of death before age 12 from poverty and hunger. The kidnapped boys were probably about 14, yanked out of theaters or on the streets (like your beloved Ukrainians– oop, they prefer to grab minorities, Russian-speakers, Moldovans, Romanians, Hungarians etc. to be the first cannon fodder to die. But down to Ukrainians by now I’d bet, the poor only at least, they’re “civilized” to that extent.) It was scary being near those child soldiers, but Diane and I survived.

Later when I reached Nicaragua and worked with the Central Sandinista de Trabajadores (Sandinista Workers Union) picking coffee on the small mountain, along with mis hermanos y hermanas nicaraguenses, many Internationalistas from Germany, France, Canada, and elsewhere, we heard the Blackbird Jets break the sound barrier flying overhead. The first finca I worked at was perhaps the country’s largest, it was simply known as “The Finca” and it was threatened with Contra attacks. Us Internationalists had the choice to go out and sit in a trench to guard the camp or not (some Intys were pacifists, not me, I’d read Malcolm X by then) and one night when I was guarding, there was a false alarm. I waited it out, ready to fire, then the threat fizzled, somebody claimed it was “un mono”, a monkey, though I’d never seen any monkeys while picking. Oh, I got one injury there, a giant about 18 inch cienpies (centipede) iridescent green-blue, fell onto my arm and got a nasty bite. Also there was one death when I was there, on Christmas Eve, the next morning we saw a guy who got too drunk, one had to walk over a wall above a little lake from one part of the camp to the other, fell in. They warned us about over-indulgence, the guy was literally blue, it was sad.

The 2nd finca I picked at was much smaller and had seen an attack nearby about 4 days before I got back from renewing my Visa, a mother and 8 year old daughter were killed (that might warm your heart, how dare those brown people try to have sovereignty?) Most of my previous crew were there, they’d shifted when the first spot was picked clean. Also the Contras had burned some farmland nearby, which I directly witnessed en route, as well as interviewing a young soldier who’d been in a battle the day prior at the hospedaje we both stayed at.

Safe trip back north to the Texas border. At the border, the “authorities” treated me with suspicion, all those stamps from 5 Latin American countries. They were a bit suspicious of me, “You know there’s wars down there, don’t you?” I blandly replied, yes I noticed. I was briefly threatened with a cavity search by one guard, he though I looked “energetic”! I told him it was coffee, plus being back on US soil. He desisted.

I am in my late 60s now, I took my risks, I did my “service.” Actual service on the side of the oppressed, not on the side of the Epstein Class and the oppressors and white supremacists.

Please feel free to share your “service” if any. (& apologies to the regulars here who are re-hearing what I already shared). Don’t ever expect to see the Northeast again, if you made it to beautiful Santa Fe, don’t think I’d meet you for a discussion. Fascist-Stans do scare me a bit, my name’s not on your beloved Myrotvorets, the Ukraine “Peace Maker” death hit-list, not that I’m important enough to rank for some posting. The late Henry Kissinger was on that list, Max Blumenthal’s wife Anya Paranpil also is, I don’t rank. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrotvorets

Oh, and I have time in closing for better doggerel. (Not living in the basement: I taught English, Spanish, sociology, psychology, history, Economics (ugh!), ran 2 different Libraries the last 12 years of my career. So here’s the corrected poem:

Mary, Mary, quite contrary, how does your garden grow?
With Flaming Hells and cockel shells
And pretty children’s skulls all in a row!

(The Flaming Hell is Ukraine, congratulations on the futile deaths of millions. The skulls need not be just Palestinian & Iranian childrens’, they could also be the adult Russian speakers killed, burned to death in the Trades Union Hall in 2014, the Maidan coup. I held elected positions with my Union over many years, never support the slaughter of innocents or other workers like your type. Oh, but I know, “It’s for their own good,” right?

Thanks SPK, and thanks for your enormous energy with all the recent posts!! I owe you a coffee or adult beverage if we ever cross paths. I’m in New Mexico now as noted, hope to be living in Mexico once my lease expires in June. Won’t share a destination here (don’t want those Myrotverets folks tracking me, though I’m just a humble, retired High School Teacher) but Ian can share my email with you, in case you’re ever in my neck of the woods.

Oh, and Mary, one thing I forgot to mention. Even the European Commission in 2014 condemned the murder of the Russian Speakers as a crime. Nobody was ever punished though I guess, # dead was in high 40s or low 50s. What’s your take, was that a crime or did those “scum” get “justice”? Please share.

Mary: “Everyone is abiding by the sanctions including Chinese state energy companies.”

Not really. China is actually NOT abided by the US sanctions on buying Russian oil, at all.

Russia produces ~9-9.3 million bpd of crude oil, with ~5-5.5 million bpd used domestically for refining and consumption (including ~4.8-5 million bpd primary refinery throughput), leaving ~3.8-4 million bpd available for total exports (seaborne crude + pipeline crude).

Exports total ~3.9 million bpd on average (early 2026 data):

• China buys ~2.1 million bpd on average or 54% of all Russian crude exports.

• India buys ~0.7 million bpd or 18%, but has began to fall sharply, i.e., India has recently betrayed BRICS and taken the side of U.S. and Israel — IMO India has chosen poorly.

• Turkey buys ~0.25 million bpd or 6%.

• Europe buys ~0.2 million bpd or 5%, mostly to Hungary and Slovakia but the Druzhba pipeline has halted due to an airstrike on Ukraine’s Brody pumping station… by Russia.

• Others (Brazil, Singapore, UAE, etc.) buys ~0.65 million bpd or 17%, for refinement and transshipment to other BRICS countries, which are anti-US and anti-West and really do not care much for US sanctions, (except India, which has recently turned coat.)

China actually wants to buy more oil from Russia to offset Venezuelan + Iranian supply disruptions. It’s Russian production and logistic bottlenecks — not China’s willingness — that cap further Chinese purchases of Russian oil. China has negotiated / is negotiating to absorb whatever India, Hungary and Slovakia have stopped buying from Russia. China is projected to increase its purchase of Russian oil by (at least) ~0.2-0.4 million bpd in 2026.

China is already the biggest buyer of Russian oil, and Russia is already the biggest seller and exporter of oil to China — and China is eager to buy even MORE from Russia, whatever Russia can sell to China. So how exactly is China “abided” by US sanctions?

This was perhaps the best scenario to get the Epstein empire to collapse.

-Cause Europe to deindustrialize by getting them to cut off their cheap supply of fertilized and oil. Check.
-Cause NATO to waste half a trillion+ and their military supply in the Ukraine war. Check.
-Cause the Empire to become even more arrogant as they see no negative effects of destroying GAZA, Lebanon, Syria, Venezuela etc.
-Cause energy prices to skyrocket because the arrogant Empire thinks war with Iran will be easy and quick. Check.

What are the odds Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, and Saudi decide the price of boot licking the Epstein empire is still worth it?

Likewise, if energy prices triple (already up 60%) in Europe what are the odds the masses decide the beatings aren’t improving moral?

“As noted previously, the sand-n—-rs don’t get protection from the Empire like their beautiful northern European Ashkenzi Ubermenschen, they are hung out to die from Iran blowback; wouldn’t you concede that the Middle Easterners will be many times more likely to jump ship than the Euro-Empire Nostalgists ever will? ”

No. If TSHTF back home, the gulfie tyrants will simply bugger off to europe or Miami or wherever, not to Russia.

The last thing the gulfies want is for their assets to be seized, their accounts frozen, their trophy properties taken away, all of which and more will happen if they dare defy the Americans.

A week or so ago, alt-media made much of the Saudis’ alleged refusal to let the US use their airspace. Needless to say, the Americans weren’t going to give them a choice. I called it at the time, but it required no special powers of prediction. It was blindingly obvious.

Similarly, Spain will quickly be brought to heel.

SPK, su espanyol no es tan mal; no me veo errores, tenemos de compensar aqui con tener un teclado que no tiene una llave de enye!! Espero ver un email de vos desupes que Ian repartir el mio. Por cierto esperamos de encontrarle directo, cara a cara, para discutir las cosas. Y nuestro sabor de la musica esta semejante, tambien– estaba un gran fanatico de el Enemigo Publico tambien.

No response from Mary with her child skulls; not surprised. At least she’d be popular during Day of the Dead festivities.

Finster I never thought much less stated that the Saudis and other US-installed Family Dictatorships would decamp to Russia or China. I’m talking about changing strategic relationships, yes I’m sure those pampered princelings prefer “the West” though most USA is pretty ghetto now, frankly, decaying industry and infrastructure, fat, dumb people some clearly at death’s door, beggars everywhere, Civilizational Fail. When they lose Dubai I dunno where they’ll decamp to if they leave, not my concern. USA might’ve been more glamorous back when Osama bin-Laden lived here and had a crush on Whitney Houston.

Spain may or may not be bought to heel after expelling the US military so as not to be hit, time will tell. I’m disappointed in Ireland, they know better. Saw a clip today of Nelson Mandela alongside Khamenei when he was released from jail, they were both IRA supporters, knew who the Genocidal top dogs were. Once upon a time there was a “3rd World” genuine coalition, my sense is that will come back even though we now call it “the Global South.” Iffy term, Iran is South of Russia but not much else. Same, N. Dakota is South of Canada, little else.

Recap — in case it was not clear enough:

One month ago: Trump publicly claimed that India agreed to halt Russian oil purchases entirely — a claim that India initially did not confirm nor deny.

Two weeks ago: Modi visited Jerusalem and overtly embraced Netanyahu, with rhetoric sharpening against Islam/Muslims and making pacts with Israel on defense tech (drones, missiles), amid the Israel-Iran escalation — effectively ending India’s decades-long non-alignment pretense.

One week ago: New data revealed that India had cut Russian crude by 40%, pivoting to more expensive American and Gulf oil despite the discount advantage Russia offered. The data confirmed Trump’s claim a month ago and signaled India had subordinated its energy pragmatism to alignment with US-Israel interests.

This week: U.S. submarine torpedoes IRIS Dena in Indian waters. India has stayed silent and not issued any statement to condemn or protest the attack, despite the Iranian ship was invited by India as a naval guest.