If you didn’t read my two previous piece, the second is about the math of missiles/drones vs. Interceptors. (Spoiler: Iran, if it keeps going, will run the US/Israel and Gulf States out of interceptors long before it runs out of missiles and drones.) The first was a general overview from day one.
I’m going to hit a bunch of different points in this post. First, Trump and Hegseth have said they are considering a ground invasion. This is beyond stupid. First, where will they stage the troops? There’s nowhere near that Iran can’t hit.
Second, have they looked at a topographical map of Iran?
Notice the mountains? Imagine trying to invade that.
The sheer stupid is beyond comprehension by anyone with a room temperature IQ. There is a hangover of people thinking this is 1991 and Iran is Iraq. Iran has better missiles than the US does. It’s larger than Iraq was, it has more people, it has allies. (China appears to be sharing real time satellite intelligence with Iran and has a land route which lets it ship in whatever Iran needs to build more missiles and drones.)
Americans seem to think they still have all the advantages they had in 1991: a military which is more advanced than anyone else’s (no), a much larger military than now, NATO allies who still have their Cold War sized armies, an enemy who will sit still for 6 months while they build up forces, etc… America then and America now are not the same, America is FAR weaker than it was and its allies are virtually disarmed. Only France is at all credible, and even they have a very small military.
A good summary of this is provided by Lee Slusher, writing before the war.
The Gulf States and Saudi Arabia are all being hit hard and the US is not protecting them. The UAE claims a 100% shootdown rate and Qatar over 80%. I believe neither, but even if true, irrelevant, because they will soon run out of interceptor missiles.
BREAKING: The UAE is projected to exhaust its interceptor missile stock within one week at the current rate of fire, and Qatar within four days; both are urgently seeking additional military support from the United States – Bloomberg
(Spoiler: no additional interceptors will be arriving. If there are any extra, they go to Israel.)
A Saudi analyst sums up what I suspect all of them are thinking:
America has abandoned us, and focused its defense systems on protecting Israel, leaving the Gulf states that host its military bases at the mercy of Iranian missiles and drones
Lie down with the devil, get up buggered, as the saying goes.
What the Gulf States, especially, are recognizing is that US bases don’t protect them, they make them a target and that the US doesn’t actually care about them and won’t bother to defend them. They’ve gone from satrapies under US protection (which they were, remember that Gulf 1 was to save Kuwait) to expendable meat shields for the Empire. They have to be thinking they’d be better off without the bases.
There have been hits on energy infrastructure. Iran says they didn’t do it, America says they did. My feeling is that Iran is telling the truth, not because I believe they wouldn’t lie, but because attacking oil infrastructure means their infrastructure becomes a target as well and that’s not in their self-interest. I suspect this is a false flag attack to try and get Saudi Arabia, in particular, to join fully in the war.
Translation:
URGENT | Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister to CNN: We are not responsible for the bombing of Saudi oil fields and we have informed our brothers in the Kingdom of that.
— Russian Market (@runews) March 2, 2026
Germany, France and Britain have said that they will help America militarily. I think the best response to this is Alemanno’s:
The most baffling thing about Europe’s support for regime change in Iran is that it contradicts its own interests. American war leads to: – higher energy price – influx of refugees – ensuing far-right surge – further damage rule-based order
Note also that Germany has almost no interceptors left (they went to Ukraine) and are within range of Iranian missiles. I doubt Iran will attack them, but they can. Germany might want to think hard about that.
Many people are saying this is 12 dimensional chess. The idea is to hurt China’s oil imports. Maybe (no), but it won’t matter much in the middle term:
Around 90% of Iran’s crude exports go to China, but the country is well prepared for disruption. Small independent refineries hold ample near-term supply, while Iranian oil already in transit could cover roughly five months of demand. China has also built large reserves—about 200 days of import cover—helped by discounted crude from Iran and Russia. Bottom line: even if Iranian flows are disrupted, the impact on China is likely manageable.
This also doesn’t make sense because the war with Iran, if goes on even another few days, means war with China is impossible. The interceptor stockpiles will take years to replenish, and China has way more missiles and drones (and the ability to manufacture them at scale) than Iran. By the time they are replenished, China will be so much stronger than the US that even American supremacists will not be able to pretend there is the least chance America could win.
The war, in the end, comes down to math. The US/Israel and whatever pathetic forces European allies commit are in a race: they have to take out launchers and missile suppliers faster than Iran depletes interceptor stocks. My bet is they lose that race, but that’s the race and if you think it comes down to anything else, you are mistaken, leaving aside the possibility of using nukes.
If the US loses this war it is America’s last great hurrah. Everyone will move away from them: they can’t defend their allies, they can’t be trusted to negotiate or keep agreements, and their military will be defenseless for years against the signature weapons of modern warfare: drones and missiles.
Empires die ugly. But America’s empire is dying.
And finally, Iran is in the right here, morally. We all know it.
Update:
Take your pick for a ground invasion of Iran:
Amphibious assault from the south — through waters mined to fuck, with trillions of missiles aimed at them, followed immediately by a wall of mountains where two battalions can hold off an entire corps at the narrow passes
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) March 2, 2026
This site is only viable due to reader donations. If you value it and can, please subscribe or donate.
different clue
This gives fresh currency to the sometimes-bruited-about question of whether Trump is really a secret Russian agent tasked with destroying America from within.
My own theory remains that Trump hates America because he is uglier and smellier than America is, and he knows it, and he knows that at least half of America knows it, and he knows that at least half of America knows that he knows it. And he hates us for it. So he wants to destroy our country and kill us all if he can.
At the very least he wants to bankrupt America and drive it into liquidation the way he did with so many of his businesses.
spud
Ian:
America is FAR weaker than it was and its allies are virtually disarmed. Only France is at all credible, and even they have a very small military.
100%!!!!!!
now is not the time for appeasement. appeasement means rearming time, and who knows what the empire might come up with to tackle the missile threat, and of course more outright belligerence.
lets hope china understands, i am not so sure russia does.
i think the empire will use nukes soon, hope not, but the rich are clever, cunning and manipulative, but smart they are not. parasites and leeches feed till they die.
cc
Thanks Ian, good post.
> I suspect this is a false flag attack to try and get Saudi Arabia, in particular, to join fully in the war.
Israel comes to mind – sounds exactly like what they’d do.
> Germany, France and Britain have said that they will help America militarily.
Let’s hope Carney has the sense to keep Canada well out of it, like Chretien wisely kept Canada out of the 2003 US/UK invasion of Iraq. Freeland-Trudeau or Poilievre would probably eagerly jump in just to try to please and appease Trump.
The foolish Iranian diaspora should remember how the US stirred up sectarianism to help destroy Iraq, arming first one side then the other. Iran, with so many different groups to turn against each other, would be completely balkanized and turned into another destroyed failed state set back decades like Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine were.
bruce wilder
From Iran’s perspective, the U.S. and the E3 are proxies for Israel and Iran’s war is with Israel.
I understand hoping that Iran really does have a large and capable horde of well-secured missiles and drones and that Iran’s leadership understands that it may be able to win the objective of permanently curtailing U.S. bullying by the simple expedient of outlasting U.S. munitions and then punishing some combination of U.S. troops exposed in the region, the Israeli principals and by-standers (the GCC, China, Japan).
I think it is a tougher puzzle for Iran than it may appear from our distant arm chairs. The Iranian regime may be brittle. The perception that it is may not be entirely an Israeli / Trumpist delusion. It has taken some heavy hits.
Iran does not have strong allies. To term China a definite ally is an exaggeration. China and Russia are potential allies and China has a stake in how the war is prosecuted and China has done some important work reconciling Iran with its Gulf neighbors. But, China’s stake is not compatible with infinite Iranian freedom to engage.
cc
Today’s post at moonofalabama suggests the timing of this latest unprovoked US-Israel war of aggression is connected to Trump’s upcoming visit to China in four weeks (March 31 to April 2)
“China, on the other side, will want to avoid a loss of Iran. Its interest is to see the U.S. bogged down in the Middle East and with its arsenals empty. Everyone and everything that helps to that will be in Beijing’s favor.”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/03/u-s-china-and-the-four-week-time-frame-for-the-war-on-iran.html
That goes with what Ian wrote as well, that the longer this US war against Iran continues, the more impossible a US war against China becomes.
Poul
A guest of Daniel Davis’ Deep Dive argued that the best strategy for Iran (if they have the political will and the resources) would be to continue the attacks of the Gulf States after the US and ISrael has run out of interceptors. The goal would be to force the Arab states to remove all US bases in return for peace. That would shake up things in the region.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkHEw7mL36s
Mary
‘Only France is at all credible, and even they have a very small military.’
‘i think the empire will use nukes soon, hope not, but the rich are clever, cunning and manipulative…’
Macron says France will allow temporary deployment of nuclear-armed jets to allied nations
France’s president also said the country would boost its number of nuclear warheads from the current level of below 300, in the first such increase since at least 1992.
https://archive.ph/VW51e
I still don’t believe everything I think but…
Feral Finster
The Iranian diaspora no more cares about Iran than the Cuban diaspora cares about Cuba.
jose
The Ghost of Khameni is managing the middle east.. I predict Shia produced revolutions in some gulf states will successfully induce regime change. The oil in those states will go to the EAST and dollar for oil swaps will end..
Purple Library Guy
Well, Trump has succeeded in one way. We’re not talking much about the Epstein files, are we?
So far it’s working out pretty well for Russia. Price of oil going up, and nobody has any interceptors to spare for Ukraine.
ventzu
Iran seems to be keeping up the pace of missiles. They seem to know exactly where to hit; US casualties are thought to be much higher than reported. And the Iranian people seem to be rallying around the government – perhaps part of the motivation for Khameni to be content with martyrdom.
Alastair Crooke believes that the US / Israel have not entered Iranian airspace in any significant way, and are relying on stand-off attacks and cruise missiles. On the other hand there have been reports of B1 bombers flying from the US, so not really clear.
I wonder how long the US and its ME allies can take this level of hits. If Iran manages to cause significant damage to the British airbase in Cyprus too . . .
This is existential for the US as an empire. If a humiliating loss becomes apparent, will they go nuclear, and what does Iran do then?
Mark Level
Just a short couple comments today, busy with “normal” life—
1. I like your Russians with Attitude take on the impossibility of successful “boots on the ground” attacks/ incursions; mainly for this section: “Amphibious assault from the south — through waters mined to fuck, with trillions of missiles aimed at them, followed immediately by a wall of mountains where two battalions can hold off an entire corps at the narrow passes.” I like this for the historical irony– the only part of Persian history I have deep knowledge of is the failed battles with the Greeks at Thermopylae (possibly somewhat fictionalized even though written by someone within living memory), and a Naval failure when bottled up behind Sardinia for the Persians (few could compete with Greek seacraft), this latter could’ve been observed by one of my ancestors as I’m 1% Sardinian. History sometimes repeats, sometimes rhymes, sometimes mirrors I guess and this would be the latter.
2. Saw a superb Grayzone with Blumenthal and a lefty Iranian Ali Alizadeh, of “Jedaal TV.” Extremely knowledgeable man and I have reconsidered my ungenerous and mistaken take on the Supreme Leader Khamenai. First, I mistakenly underestimated his age, 86, he died as a martyr, deliberately, this is called “Walking the Walk.” Deeply inspiring that he played to the religious sentiment by not “cringing in a bunker” like the Trumpies lied, sadly a large # of family members also killed including his 4 month old great granddaughter in his office, working, at least a dozen of his children and grandchildren also killed. His long regime began when they won the US-initiated War with “our guy” Saddam in a victory, they refused to use poison gas though the Germans provided it and the US funded it. A sincere humanitarian, he also directed in the prior war in June that no civilians be targeted. Completely the opposite of fascistic Ethno-States like the Zionist Entity and Ukraine. Refused to develop or use Nukes out of genuine humanitarianism, it was clearly naive, but as we all know, those now in power are set free to do what Groucho Marx advocated, “When circumstances change, my opinion changes”, likely Nuclear weapons will be developed based on the Darwinian necessity to survive. Not a good look for the region or the world, but who is ultimately responsible? Netanyahu and Trump.
3. I shouldn’t boast over seeing the obvious, but petroleum prices up immediately (Lloyds of London pulled the plug of all people, now the Russians won’t be the only fake “Shadow Fleet” without “proper”–London-issued insurance.
4. Jimmy Dore also did good coverage today, Scott Ritter was very measured and didn’t do any loud-mouthed bloviating as typical. (I should go buy a lottery ticket!! Lucky day clearly.) Dore had Max on, 2 commitments (at least) in one day. Jimmy played Pete Hegseth drunkenly (at least he didn’t vomit) responding to a question with complete incoherence of the press corps, What is the next step? basically. His response was, Don’t you remember all the great things il Duce has said, we won’t get bogged down with boots on the ground, we don’t do stupid wars, blah, blah. Meantime the Donald telling major press that he might do “Boots on the Ground.” Pentagon, General Kaine, had things leaking like a sieve, in days prior to the cowardly sneak attack, he doesn’t want to take the blame. It belongs on the senile God-King and his Ashkenazi puppet-master (who today bragged he’d been working on this for “40 years,” an important # in Hebrew mysticism.)
5. Europe’s hit the hardest with Hormuz Straits closed now, may have to go with a begging bowl to Russia to open the one Nordstream pipeline not taken out by Biden. China’s potentially harmed, but less so. Japan utterly doomed.
mago
Mary Mary quite contrary
How does your garden grow?
With silver bells and cockle shells
All lined up in a row
Sorry. The doggerel just popped into my mind.
Good on anyone who examines their thoughts and mind rather than going automatic.
Yes, Iran holds the moral high ground in this wild crazy conflagration, but to hear western leaders and lap dog influencers (wtf is that anyway? Social media whores?) Iran is the devil’s spawn for daring to fight back.
Nobody wins if everybody loses, and we’re all so screwed.
Still the sun rises and the sun sets and we’re blessed to witness that if we are able.
Hasta la victoria hermanos y hermanas!
spud
maybe tony blair will be told soon he has worn out his welcome, or like all cowards, run for the hills before he is told.
i am betting he is a target.
different clue
Well . . . let’s look on a possible bright side, if there could even be one. If gas goes up to $10 per gallon and stays there and never comes down again, then America’s mainstreamal normie majority will start to learn about conservation living.
Conservation now, Conservation tomorrow, Conservation forever!
Lernnit Livvit Luvvit.
Jan Wiklund
Concerning the idiotic European response, there are two possibilities:
1. That US have them in a stranglehold. That is Cory Doctorow’s opinion: https://pluralistic.net/2026/02/26/hanged-for-a-sheep/#as-for-a-lamb. Europe has bought into US digital services which US can cut off at any moment, and if they do, everything in Europe would stop. So they don’t dare to do otherwise.
2. That the Europeans are colonial racists and white suprematists that feel close to other white suprematists. That seems to be the opinion of professor Linus Hagström at the Swedish University of Defense, https://www.aftonbladet.se/kultur/a/oEpMrR/svensk-sakerhetspolitik-linus-hagstrom (sorry, in Swedish). Nato is, according to him, just identity politics and has nothing to do with pragmatism or interests, which he feels lie elsewhere.
Of course both can be right.
Sunny Runny Burger
As usual I think people are talking about the wrong things and making the wrong assumptions but of course it might be me that does so instead. In fairness it’s not like anyone can be certain.
A zionist (US/UK/FR/IL, doesn’t matter who) attempt (possibly unsuccessful if we’re very lucky) to use nukes looks like an almost certainty to me and seems likely to have been the main intention all along (this cart has horses at both ends or is it the other way around? 😛 ). The war against Iran being another deliberate and manufactured excuse/”rationale” for using nuclear weapons and a second attempt since they so far haven’t managed to make it happen in the war against Russia (and they’re still trying there too).
»»» They are gambling on shocking the world into subservience and fear «««
Hiroshima and Nagasaki repeated –they “learnt” the wrong lesson from that.
Iran is also a path to attack Russia from the south (an idiotic idea, but then again all of it is) more so than attacking China from the west (also extremely stupid in all ways).
They can’t admit to any of this and yet haven’t managed to come up with any cover stories that passes the slightest scrutiny even by their own propaganda press (although any such “slight scrutiny” is still quickly quenched).
My best attempt at “when” continues to be that it happens during spring or summer (just as in the ex-“Ukrainian” scenario where the same applies). This year that could be as early as in a months time, perhaps even slightly less, since it seems spring will come early (arguably already starting in parts of Europe).
No matter what I doubt Trump or any other US government representatives (if any still exist in a month) will be welcome in China. That meeting and any other old schedules are no longer of any importance and likely to be void.
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
Separately: everyone should be acutely aware that over at MoA “b” (or whoever “b” is now) suddenly a few weeks ago apparently became an apologist for zionism and pedophilia and arguing against his own previous writing.
Mark Level
Thanks to (relatively?) new commenter SRB, a very astute take. As to your closer, I saw that b. did a commentary about 2 weeks back, basically “What’s wrong with raping some bitches and peddling some bitch slave ass?” Not entirely shocked, he never moderated some rampaging misogyny and homophobia from long-time commenters like “William Gruff.” Impersonating a Billy Goat, the actual ones are quite horny and will fuck other goats (including other males), a fence post or whatever else. He’d rage on about killing the “sodomites” and whatever else.
b. is old, a german angry that some of his family had their property in Deutscheland damaged or expropriated after the War (War criminal legacy?), he was at least smart enough to take over the moonofalabama site when the genuinely Left previous owner died off. Bertolt Brecht wrote mordantly and wittily against Nazi savagery from exile, never glamorized or supported it, so tres ironic.
b. is old, bitter, angry, and lives in Flori-duh, so can’t say I’m suprised he was either blackmailed or his truest self came out with advanced age. Some young revolutionaries become bitter old fascists, John Dos Passos a prime example. As a certain obese God-Emperor says, “Sad!!”
Feral Finster
@Jan
Not to mention, european strategy since 1917 has been to sidle up to the Americans to get them to do their fighting for them.
Europeans may be old and crap soldiers, but they are masters in the arts of the courtier, at whispering campaigns and dancing attendance, at prancing pageantry and colorful outfits, at being the ears of senile monarchs and pretending that the emperor is not buck-ass naked.
marku
The Houthis might have attacked the Saudis oil platform in the midst of all the chaos.
No love lost there….
Like & Subscribe
… he was at least smart enough to take over the moonofalabama site when the genuinely Left previous owner died off. Bertolt Brecht wrote mordantly and wittily against Nazi savagery from exile, never glamorized or supported it, so tres ironic.
What? He didn’t take over the site from Bertolt Brecht. He hitched a ride on William Montague’s coattails and filled the vacuum created by Montague’s abandoning of The Whiskey Bar. Montague’s followers flocked to Moon of Alabama to discuss Billmon’s latest considering Billmon stopped allowing commentary. Moon of Alabama unethically used The Whiskey Bar’s tagline.
The elusive “author” of that blog, Moon of Alabama that is, would often name drop Billmon as though Billmon was affiliated with Moon of Alabama in some way until Billmon one day kindly made it clear he was not and demanded the so-called “b” stop using his name and referring to him.
Fyi, Billmon could hardly be described as “left”.
You have me on tenterhooks waiting in anticipation for you to reveal what other languages you speak. I mean, Yiddish, who would have thought? I bet you speak more languages than wars Trump has ended, when the final tally is in which may be a while at this rate.
Feral Finster
Air Superiority
Today, the first clear evidence of U.S. air superiority, at least in the vicinity of Tehran, has emerged.
A JDAM failed and was recovered intact in the Narmak neighborhood, northeast of Tehran, approximately 100 km from the Caspian Sea.
It was likely launched by B-1 bombers that departed from Diego Garcia yesterday.
Since a standard JDAM has a range of 15-25 km, this technically demonstrates incontestable air superiority over the Tehran area.
The aircraft could release the bomb from well outside the reach of most Iranian short- and medium-range air defenses.
Iran probably anticipated this scenario, but it does nothing to improve its position.
I believe Iran is now relying solely on drones for airspace patrol, after likely losing most or all of its radars, probably on the first day of the conflict.
Although it still has an air force, without functioning radars, its fighters can do very little.
In this situation, the U.S. and Israel can operate heavier bombs, inflicting greater damage on Iranian bases, penetrating tunnels that aren’t that deep, and destroying some of them.
Another possibility is that Iran is concentrating its remaining air engagement assets in other regions, such as near Iraq and Kuwait, where three F-15Es were recently shot down.
With established air superiority, we can expect far more intense bombing campaigns against Iran.
Even so, Tehran continues to launch attacks on U.S. bases in the region.
PS: In an asymmetrical war, there is no way to prevent the air superiority of a military machine like the US. The battle for Iran will be to prevent air dominance.
https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2028944638518624662
Adam Eran
Just a note about “saving” Kuwait in the earlier Gulf Wars. Kuwait was slant drilling into Iraqi oil formations, and Saddam wanted to punish them. He asked the US if they minded and got a non-committal (“We have no opinion about that”) response. So he invaded and set the Kuwaiti oilfields alight. The US used this as a pretext for Gulf War I. It’s hard to overestimate the perfidy of this move, but that’s why Larry Wilkinson says he believes the US foreign policy establishment doesn’t have an operating brain cell.
different clue
I had read rumors and reports of this going to start, and it looks like it has.
” EXCLUSIVE: Thousands of Kurdish fighters launch ground offensive into Iran against regime, official says
The report comes as Washington weighs support for Kurdish groups and Trump speaks with Kurdish leaders about the war with Iran; U.S. official speaking to Fox News confirmed the report ”
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-exclusive-thousands-of-kurdish-fighters-launch-ground-offensive-into-iran-against-regime-official-says
Before Trump, CIA was considered part of the Deep State. Did the Trump 2.0 Group conduct enough purges and re-staffings throughout the CIA to where they could get themselves a new CIA who would back this? Or is this a Legacy CIA gift which was years in the making?
Why don’t the Kurds just give it up? Why do they keep trying to have these rebellions? Easy I know for my non-Kurdish self to say.