So, this weekend there was a leak of a possible peace deal. Iran got most of what it wanted in this hypothetical deal. Israel said “we won’t obey any truce in Lebanon” and, well, that’s probably the end of it, though we’ll see.
I considered writing about it over the weekend, but so far every peace deal floated over a weekend has meant a manipulation of markets, some insider making bank by exactly timing it, and no peace deal.
The bottom line here is that if Iran is serious about a peace deal including Lebanon and Hezbollah, it can only happen if Trump is willing and able to discipline Israel. Doing so is in one sense easy: just stop sending them weapons and parts. They can’t go more than two weeks without US re-supply. (This is why Netanyahu has been saying Israel wants to be independent of the US.)
For whatever reason Trump won’t do this. It could be political fear due to the power of the lobby. It could be they have pictures of him raping kids. It could be, as a correspondent just argued, that in fact Trump is impotent and they can prove that and his ego can’t take it.
Whatever the reason is, it obviously exists.
Iran would like a deal, but it’s in no particular rush because the pain ramps up every week the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, and despite what various idiots say, the US is not immune to that pain.
Iran won the war. They want a peace deal that reflects that. They aren’t willing to give in peace what the US can’t win by arms.
As for the US, I think we’re looking at an opposition between American politicians fear of Israel and its lobby and their terror of what will happen in the mid-term elections. The Joker in the deck is the how many of them are subject to blackmail, because pictures of them raping teenagers trumps losing election.
Deleted AIPAC tweet
But be clear that the pain has only begun. It’s going to be even worse overseas. If Europe and large parts of Asia, including Australia, don’t start rationing soon, they’re not going to have enough energy to get thru next winter. That’s the sort of incompetence that leads to governments falling.
If the US was run by sane competent non-blackmailed people who cared about America, and not just their own class, Trump would be impeached, Israel would be reined in, and a peace deal would be cut. The US has lost, and the fallout from signing a peace deal which admits this is less than letting the Strait remain closed.
If this or another similar deal does pass soon, then it will be because Iran has cut Hezbollah loose and left them on their own, whatever they say. But trying to help Hezbollah isn’t just about doing the “right thing”, Hezbollah is an important proxy for Iran and they want to keep it around and not have to support it in a multi-year war against Israel.
And, again, their negotiating hand gets stronger every day. Sure, they’re suffering from the US blockade, but not as much as the US (and almost everyone else) is from theirs.
The only country which could compel Iran to make peace is China, and since they are run by competent people who think ahead, they’re one of the few nations that can handle the Strait being closed. Not, perhaps, forever, but certainly much longer than the US can.
Meanwhile America keeping the Strait closed (which is how it is perceived by many) is doing vast damage to America’s subject states. That too will have consequences: they may publicly blame Iran, but behind the scenes they know this was a US war of choice, that the US lost, and that the US doesn’t care what is happening to them as a consequence of not cutting a peace deal.
Losing wars has consequences. Failing to admit you lost a war has even worse consequences. The US has yet to figure this out.
What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.
Feral Finster
“Iran would like a deal, but it’s in no particular rush because the pain ramps up every week the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, and despite what various idiots say, the US is not immune to that pain.”
As long as the stock markets can continue to remain buoyant, nobody cares. Hence, Trump is in no rush to make a deal. Yes, millions will suffer and die, but neither Trump nor rich people anywhere care, as long as the police and army will shot when ordered.
Moreover, there is no deal that Iran can make that will satisfy Israel. This is why Trump sticks new conditions, such as requiring the remaining gulfie tyrannies to recognize Israel.
Feral Finster
“The only country which could compel Iran to make peace is China, and since they are run by competent people who think ahead, they’re one of the few nations that can handle the Strait being closed.”
China simply wants to sell things and make money, which is why they pressured Iran into the asinine ceasefire in the first place.
The Americans, by contrast, care only for power, domination and control, and are perfectly willing to harm others and themselves not to lose these things.
Bob
This is all so maddeningly insane.
I am tending to believe the story that the energy supply is about to drop off a cliff but no matter how bitter and cynical I am I can’t believe our useless governments are seemingly unaware of any potential problems. Don’t worry, book your flights to the Canaries! Arrange a dinner party!
Mark Level
Hi, Ian. As usual, you nail it, except for one typo (sorry for being pedantic, a former English and ESL teacher, I can’t help it.) 2nd paragraph after the Black box Massie-related Tweet, you say Israel being “reigned in”, you mean “reined in” the homonym for controlling a horse while riding. You can’t rule somebody in, though I suppose a Referee could rule someone in or out of bounds, e.g.
English has so many homonyms that contradict one another, used to teach my students that one can raise a lantern or fist, an army can raze a village, complete opposite concepts.
As to your main point, all sensible, I think on your list of reasons for DJT to Taco it’s ALL, with the biggest one being his fragile Ego and having started a war that most (even that evil scumbag Robert Kagan) now admit is lost, not Fox News or foaming-at-the-mouth Hegseth, but all who are sane and somewhat informed.
I too ignored this, other than infrequent checks on news reports, ‘coz I know he’s incompetent and entirely owned. And I make it a rule never to believe anything the US Government says. There are very rare exceptions, but still–.
I think the most important thing for ‘Muricans in your post is that the European Slugs (the populace, not Kaja Kallas and that set) will know who starves and freezes them, US will, as you indicate, become as big a Pariah state in EUrope, the Global South, even Australia (a complete suck-up, but as you said, 3 meals away from a revolution, Lenin’s quip) and others will hate the US for doing to them what US did to Russia between 1991-97, complete impoverishment across the board.
It’s gonna get ugly. Oh, and not too off-topic, Tony’s very first curated link on Sunday about the up to 295K people leaving the US last year, found an excellent video here which I shared with a family member in Flori-duh, she wants to get out, but not necessarily out of USA. Link to follow. I think the 18-year old youth who got out is most inspirational but they all make good points: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgRXzOy_O9w
Kind regards, you have the best (imho) website covering politics, economics, philosophy, literature and so much else I won’t bother to list, your writing is nearly always deeply inspirational and spot-on.
Ian Welsh
Yes, homonyms are my writing kryptonite. I think in sound when writing. Thanks for the catch.
Ian Welsh
There’s a real economy, and it matters. Thinking only the stock market matters is falling for oligarch propaganda.
StewartM
For whatever reason Trump won’t do this. It could be political fear due to the power of the lobby. It could be they have pictures of him raping kids. It could be, as a correspondent just argued, that in fact Trump is impotent and they can prove that and his ego can’t take it.
Far for it be for ME to offer Trump a fig leaf of an excuse, but (as I said with Biden):
What could Bibi be threatening behind the scenes? A nuclear strike independent of the US?
Unless China has actually threatened this (as was mentioned I believe by Tony Wikrit) what nuclear power would respond to punish Israel for that?
I think it’s clear that Bibi, like Hitler (and I think the analogy is fully justified) is so-hell bent on creating his Israel uber Alles that like Hitler pre-1939, he’s willing to push the envelope again and again and risk catastrophic war to get his way. Like Israel today, Hitler’s Germany was the strongest individual military power in his region, and was not only not immediately threatened, but not conceivably threatened, by any regional power or combination of powers. Hitler could have hit the “pause” button post-Munich and probably kept all his gains. But no, Hitler kept pushing.
And Bibi too keeps pushing.
Feral Finster
“There’s a real economy, and it matters. Thinking only the stock market matters is falling for oligarch propaganda.”
That is not what I said. The oligarchs themselves care only for share or bond prices.
mago
Yeah, Mark Level, you got that write once again.
mago
“The US has yet to figure this out.”
It’s the Trump regime that has yet to figure this out, not the rest of us.
Am I rite or what?
As an aside, that word ‘regime’? It kneads to be retired.
Bob
@mago
Thanks haha
Like & Subscribe
The following is per AI. Is it true? Will it pass? Is Iran serious about it or is it yet more propagandistic trolling of Trump and Bibi? Never forget Tuco’s poignant quote from The Good, The Bad And The Ugly. “If you’re going to shoot, shoot, don’t talk.”
As of May 2026, Iranian lawmakers are reviewing a proposed bill that would formalize a €50 million (approximately $58 million USD) bounty for the assassination of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The details regarding this “Reciprocal Action” bill include:
Targets: The bounty also targets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the commander of U.S. CENTCOM.
Justification: Iranian officials, including Ebrahim Azizi (Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee), framed the measure as retaliation for the February 2026 strikes on Tehran that reportedly killed Iran’s then-Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
Status: The measure is currently a proposed bill under review by the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission and has not yet been passed into official law.
Context: This formal legislative move follows previous $40 million to $50 million bounties suggested by Iranian-linked groups like the “Blood Covenant” and the cyberwarfare group “Handala”.
U.S. Response: President Trump has previously warned that any Iranian involvement in an assassination attempt against him would result in the United States responding with “overwhelming force”.
For further updates on Middle Eastern security issues, you can monitor the Jerusalem Post or Iran International.
Like & Subscribe
I can guarantee 100% China would do NOTHING if Israel nuked Iran. For those who would give a shred of credence to such a claim clearly do not understand China. For that matter, Russia would do nothing either except maybe nuke Ukraine whilst all the fascistic anti-fascist anarchists-cum-communists cheered from the padded bleachers.
You know, I do wonder if Iran is wary of having to rely on Putin as an ally. I mean, Putin has regular weekly or bi-weekly conference calls with Krasnov and obviously has considerable influence with and on Trump as does Bibi. Also, consider Putin’s bizarre and inexplicable stance in regard to Israel and its genocide of the Palestinians. Just one more contradiction in a sea of them. Geopolitics is the worst of humanity writ large. It;s not meant to make sense. You just have to play the game and the ever-changing rules of engagement write themselves.
Krasnov is a perfectly-fitting name bequeathed to Trump by the KGB. Trump — The White Russian asset.
Pyotr Nikolayevich Krasnov (Russian: Пётр Николаевич Краснов; 22 September [O.S. 10 September] 1869 – 17 January 1947), also known as Peter Krasnov, was a Russian military leader, writer, and later Nazi collaborator.
Krasnov served as a lieutenant general in the Imperial Russian Army during World War I and later led anti-Bolshevik forces during the Russian Civil War, where he served as the ataman of the Don Republic until the Red Army conquered the region following their victory at Tsaritsyn.[1]
After the civil war, he lived in exile. During World War II, Krasnov collaborated with the Germans, who mobilized Cossack forces to fight against the Soviet Union in Operation Barbarossa. Following the end of the war, Krasnov was repatriated and executed by the Soviet authorities.
TM
Without any form of leverage against their masters, who cares what the European or American poors think?
Mark Level
Fun and puns with homonyms, not Pwns.
How much would wood a woodchuck chuck if a wouldchuck could chuck would?
Li’l Narcito resents Trump’s Taquitos, fully in the water or out, Get Your War On (a great series from the Bush Jr. era, look into it if unknown) or Run Away like the Crusaders do from the Killer Rabbit in Monty Python.
http://www.mnftiu.cc/category/gywo/war1/
marku
That mago, he has a real scents of humor…….
Back to reality, good article Ian. No point in paying any attention to anything coming out of DC. It’s all BS to front run some market somewhere.
Purple Library Guy
One barrier to reaching a deal is that the US is completely untrustworthy–“Not agreement capable” as I understand the Russians put it. Normally, international agreements are about what the parties will do going forward, on an ongoing basis. But even before Trump, the US had a habit of just ignoring their side of agreements, if they didn’t just unilaterally break them completely. There’s no point in signing an agreement with the US where they promise, say, not to attack you again, because they’re lying.
So the US side of any deal, from Iran’s perspective, would have to involve immediate actions that are hard to take back, such as unfreezing Iranian assets (which, if the Iranians are smart, they would immediately move to Chinese, government-owned banks). But the US is very unenthusiastic about the idea of agreements where they would actually have to live up to pieces they find inconvenient. And they are very unused to having to face reality. So, impasse.
Mark Level
LAS assuring us arrogantly if the Zios “Nuke Iran” (they’d have to deploy dozens of bombs, and even that wouldn’t be enough. You do know Persia is the size of nearly all of Western Europe, don’t you?) and what CHINA WILL DO, what RUSSIA WILL DO (anything you say on this topic is slanted so far as to be incoherent.) I’m going to start ignoring your silly Trolling like the rest of the bar here does. You’re about as credible as the departed (from power) Antony Blinken, reliably cracked, and with an equal amount of bloodlust.
ProNewerDeal
I am so tired & annoyed by the global economic & peace uncertainty caused by this 1 narcissist moron ConManD0n. This idiot may cause a global recession.
Ian, what do you forecast for the Iran War, US economy, job market, CPI-U inflation, & gas gallon price for the rest of the 2026?
Like & Subscribe
… they’d have to deploy dozens of bombs, and even that wouldn’t be enough. You do know Persia is the size of nearly all of Western Europe, don’t you?
Is your counter argument that it’s a silly thought-exercise and not worth a mention because Israel could never successfully nuke Iran because Iran is so large? If so, it’s a strawman argument and you are arguing with Stewart and Tony, not me. My argument is merely what China and Russia would do if Israel nuked Iran, not any claim about the feasibility of nuking Iran.
I was responding to the following comment made by Stewart, but so blinded you are by seething rage and hatred, you fail to see the context as you mischaracterize any and all of my commentary.
What could Bibi be threatening behind the scenes? A nuclear strike independent of the US?
Unless China has actually threatened this (as was mentioned I believe by Tony Wikrit) what nuclear power would respond to punish Israel for that?
I stand by what I said about China and Putin, and I say Putin in lieu of Russia because for now at least, Russia is Putin and Putin is Russia. Not as much with China. Whereas Xi is an authoritarian, he in no way exercises absolute power like Putin.
That aside, I find this argument about how large Iran is, well, ridiculous. Yes, it’s a large country geographically as is Canada, but like Canada or similar to Canada, the population is not spread evenly across the land mass. 75% of Iran’s population lives in its urban centers and those urban centers are scattered on a land mass less than half the land mass of Iran proper with the exception of Mashhad in the far east of Iran.
Here is a great article outlining all of this. Yes, the claims about a boots-on-the-ground invasion are true and fact considering Iran’s terrain. Not as much size mind you, but terrain most of all.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/20/a-simple-visual-guide-to-iran-and-its-people
The following quote from that article is of note in this debate.
Other populous cities across Iran include: Shiraz (1.7 million), Tabriz (1.7 million), Karaj (1.6 million), Qom (1.4 million) and Ahvaz (1.3 million).
I would say add Mashhad to that list and coupled with Tehran’s nearly 10 million, 7 nukes would murder 20 million Iranians and effectively level and end Iran as we know it, despite Iran being so large as you continually parrot.
That would be awful, nay horrible. I condemn it in advance if it’s being considered as I have condemned America’s and Israel’s illegal war of aggression on Iran and as I have condemned Israel’s clear genocide of the Palestinians and as I condemn China’s clear genocide of the Uyghurs and as I condemn Russia’s illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. All of those things deserve, in the least, condemnation as a matter of principle and yet you support half of them, whilst only condemning half. YOU are inconsistent, principally speaking. You may be IQ smart, perhaps, but clearly you are lacking in the “other” intelligences for which there are no current measurement processes let alone consensus acceptance that “other” intelligences exist that could possibly be measured.
Mark Level
Just one calm and measured response to your silliness, LAS. I am not “blinded by rage and hatred” toward you, I think very little of you and would not expend that amount of energy. So your sure prediction was just a pointless “thought exercise”? Good enough.
There was a bunch of dumb LibLabs on eschaton years ago, some would respond whenever I disagreed with their Let’s Bomb everyone, Russia, China etc. with actual “rage”, I generally just ignored it, eventually just stopped commenting there, because as the saying goes, Against Stupidity, the Gods contend in vain. Nothing more to say to you, your shifting words, your projection (“blinded . . .with seething rage and hatred”, lol) expose your psyche to all who bother to read.
Uhm, yes, I am IQ smart, thank you. I taught high school (mainly) professionally in Northern California for 32 years, I was widely liked by students, with few exceptions, I was liked by my colleagues except some of the Right Wing and suck-up (to admin) ones. Some admin hated me but they feared me as well, because I was a well-known successful union leader, many respected me as well and treated me so even when we disagreed. One ally I had was a very conservative Republican Assistant Principal, his colleagues consistently came after him because he had absolute integrity, he never lied as they often did, he was on the side of teachers and students as well as his fellow admin (when they were driving in the proper lane, not when they were wrong.)
Once we had both been transferred away from our first main school to the other “bad” High School, both for political reasons to disrupt the power we had (it had the reverse effect for both of us) I dropped into his office just to visit him during a break. I was kind of grossed out to see a piece of art with Christian Crusaders on his wall. But he wasn’t a Hegseth type I knew, he was just conservative. We remained friends and allies.
In 2021 with other senior staff, I was offered a Golden Handshake of 2/3 of my next year’s wages, about $67K (spread over 7 years.) I took it in a heartbeat, sick of the endless NorCal wildfires, and a toxic District Culture which was Kiss Up Kick Down at the District Office. My friend, A.V. had earlier got stabbed in the back by an Asst. Superintendent, he had worked in bargaining (with one of the bargaining units), then left to work on another assignment for the district office in the p.m. She slandered him and claimed he had “cut”, simply wandered off and not done his job, though he had an email from another admin that disproved this.
He had to sue the District, they crumbled after some months, he got back his pay, his reputation, and presumably damages. He contacted me on Facebook and we caught up on the phone, I shared my congratulations.
People find their own level (pun intended) and other friends and allies at that level. Your level is known to most if not all here. You’re not worth “rage”, you’re like a small, biting fly. Once you ragefully accused me of “slandering” you, I only criticize your silly ideas, and as said I will mostly ignore you as irrelevant in the future.
I’ll end with something from the Bible: “He that is righteous is righteous still. He that is filthy is filthy still.” I know little about you personally, nor do I care to. I cannot say you are filthy, but your writing is racist, openly biased and silly. Therefore I don’t take you seriously. Oh but since you’re such a great China and Russia expert, you must know Jeffrey Sachs? If so please say hi to him for me the next time you’re at a U.N. confab. together.
anon
So long as Israel exists there will never be peace in the Middle East. Israel is a genocidal apartheid state. Even so-called “liberal Zionists” don’t see what is happening in Gaza as a genocide. America will never reign in Israel. When Netanyahu dies there will be someone like him or worse to take his place. It’s obvious that an entire generation of American politicians have been blackmailed by Israel. Either they were videotaped in one of Epstein’s mansions or they bore their political careers as more important than standing up to genocide. When the American left’s biggest “progressive” is sellout AOC, there is no hope to fight the Israel lobby.