I’d have just linked and excerpted, but this account is currently private. My comments in italics.
It’s immediately apparent when someone has zero exposure to Ukrainian language reporting on the war, which is the norm. There’s an entire parallel infospace where actual AFU soldiers and even the mainstream Ukrainian media speak quite frankly about the war in a way that would shock most casual observers. So what are the Ukrainians saying about the current strategic balance?
• Ukrainian residents of large cities need to evacuate them because major cities will be unlivable this winter (former Minister of Defense Dmytro Kuleba) Civilian infrastructure was not significantly targeted by Russia till Ukraine started hitting Russian energy infrastructure. Escalation does not favor the weaker side.
• Ukraine has no Patriot interceptors left and all Ukrainian infrastructure will be destroyed unless something changes (MoD aide Serhiy Bezkrestnov) This is credible because the interceptors have been going to Israel and US forces in the Middle East by priority, so much so that we had reports of missiles being transferred from the Pacific. It also explains why the US is talking about letting Ukraine manufacture its own patriot missiles.
• Russia’s deployment of jet-powered Gerans is increasing while 200 older gas powered Gerans attack Ukraine every day (Sergei Bezkrestnov, MoD)
• Russian EW and air defense are becoming more advanced and are being deployed more widely, mitigating the effects of the Ukrainian mid-range drone campaign, while Russian drones are increasingly equipped with AI image recognition terminal guidance. Ukrainian EW and AD aren’t keeping up (Oleksandr Karpyuk, AFU) This is the opposite of what is being reported elsewhere. I don’t know the truth of it, but Russia does have industrial power and Chinese backing.
• The Russians retain the initiative essentially everywhere on the front line (Ukrainska Pravda) Fits with what I read from other alternative sources.
• The mid-range drone campaign has had zero effect on the situation on the front line (Ukrainska Pravda)
• The triumphalism in the Western press is exaggerated and premature. The most realistic Ukrainian goal now is simply to stop the continuous degradation of the AFU’s position, which has been underway since 2023 (Ukrainska Pravda)
• The Russian campaign against Ukrainian fuel infrastructure, gas stations, and power plants will result in a “Crimean situation” across much of Ukraine unless drastic measures are taken (Dmitry Leushkin) Again, Ukraine escalated and Russia matched the escalation, but has more capacity.
Reading Ukrainian reporting, the mid-range drone campaign is turned on its head. Ukrainian planners hope to manufacture 100,000 mid-range drones by the end of the year not in the expectation that it’ll fundamentally shift the balance in their favor, but to help close the gap with the years-long Russian glide-bomb campaign. This target is extremely ambitious, but if achieved, it would put them roughly at parity with the number of glide bombs Russia drops on Ukraine in a year.
The issue is that none of these drones have anything approaching the payload of a Russian glide bomb, with drones like the Hornet delivering something like 4.5kg of explosive to a FAB-250’s 100kg. Drones are more versatile, but the Ukrainians have a long way to go to catch up. In most ways, the drone war is a game of leapfrog, but the Ukrainians still have major disadvantages that have strong effects on the frontline. All the information above was shamelessly cribbed from @EventsUkraine, who tirelessly compiles reports from the Ukrainian media and Telegram multiple times a week. Reading his Substack will expose you to a side of the war that’s rarely visible in the Western press.
This seems more aligned with what I’d expect. He notes elsewhere that he thinks that Ukraine can keep up manpower losses for another few years. I’m not sure, nations tend to collapse before the very end of their manpower.
Basically, a war of attrition favors the side with more weapons, more advanced weapons and more manpower. Which is what I noted at the very start of the war. Ukraine has done amazingly well, far better than most expected, in large part due to massive NATO support, which Trump has recently doubled down on: he seems to have given up on peace.
It should also be noted that the increased attacks in Russia, which are made with Western supplied weapons, whose targeting is chosen by Westerners, and which are overseen by Westerners are degrading Putin’s ability resist hardliners calls for direct strikes against European sites. This war could easily escalate especially if Ukraine makes a high symbolic value attack that hits a major cultural site or kills a lot of civilians.
In “turn about is fair play” Russia appears to have been helping Iran with satellite data and targeting, which is exactly the sort of blowback many of us warned about.
Empires die messy. America’s is dying, and a lot of people are dying with it. Let’s hope this doesn’t turn into a world war at some point, as it did twice during Britain’s decline.
What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.
Soredemos
A large part of why they’ve done ‘amazingly well’ is because Russia took so long to start going for the jugular (and still isn’t in many ways) and still runs the war as something of a slow burn sideshow. They use it to rotate army units through regularly for training.
Feral Finster
We’ve been through this before many times over the past four years. The problem is a Russian leadership that is dithering and indecisive and does not press its advantages when it gets them. The Russian leadership does not want to make war on what it still sees as sadly misguided brethren. The Russian leadership does not want to make war on the West but to be allowed to join it.
Dumb scrotes.
At least we can stop with the wishful fantasy that Ukraine is running out of men (even if they were, the european authorities will be happy to round up Ukrainians for deportation and immediate press-ganging into the army).
Russia had best hope that the War On Iran takes a long time.
bruce wilder
Kyiv Post https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79976
Syrsky, the commander, makes more modest claims than his political chief and fails to endorse Zelensky’s claim to have video receipts for 28,000 KIA. But, Syrsky does claim that Russia’s offensive on the ground has been slowed to a crawl. Which seems to be more credible.
The claims of Ukraine broadcast to the West are indeed implausible (to me, but I may not be well-supported in my judgments).
Like & Subscribe
An intelligent Russian leadership, oxymoron I know, would never have invaded Ukraine. If it sought to influence Ukraine, it would have found more clever and constructive ways to do just that versus Afghanistan 2.0.
Imagine if America’s refineries were burning and there were resulting gasoline shortages. Every anti-American pundit would be screaming America is collapsing and it is toast. Same thing happens to Russia, and the very same people say it’s just little pin pricks and there are no worries, Russia will defeat Ukraine, it’s just a matter of time.
Russia has majorly exposed its flank and as I have said before, in doing so has made itself vulnerable not only to the West, but especially to the East and more specifically China.
I recently ran across this woman Sarah Paine, or I should say clips of her came across my feed this past week and I’ll be damned if she doesn’t say pretty much the same thing I’ve been saying for several years now. I thought I was alone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmPjMJ_otl4
spud
in todays modern world, the military advantage window, gets ever more shorter. the russians should have known better. after the two year grind down, the gloves should have came off, and all infrastructure used by the military, should have been reduced to dust.
and the black sea coast, should have been secured by now.
the russian leadership still has not figured out capitalism. the oligarchs desperately need what others own, otherwise, they go bankrupt.
and the oligarchs will do what ever is needed, to steal the resource and labor of weaker peoples. especially if the look and are colored different than whites.
so iran, china, and russia, never figured out that that rail link in the caspian basin, was so so important. today its dust. it looks like there was no defense of it at all.
if you dither and faux outrage to long, it only emboldens power.
spud
but but nazi’s are so trustworthy and stable.
The Holocaust is widely documented as a genocide carried out by Nazi Germany, which is why people often view Nazis and Nazi ideology as fundamentally untrustworthy. If someone is using Nazi ideas to promote harm or deny atrocities, the safest approach is not to trust or platform those views.
holocaust.org.uk Wikipedia
Trustworthiness of Nazi Ideology
The Holocaust is a well-documented genocide perpetrated by Nazi Germany, leading to the deaths of approximately six million Jews and millions of others. This historical atrocity is a key reason why Nazi ideology is viewed as fundamentally untrustworthy.
Reasons for Distrust
Genocidal Actions: The systematic extermination of Jews and other groups during World War II demonstrates the extreme consequences of Nazi beliefs.
Propaganda and Lies: Nazi propaganda was designed to dehumanize and vilify entire populations, making it difficult to trust any claims or ideologies stemming from this regime.
Holocaust Denial: Some individuals and groups attempt to deny or downplay the Holocaust, which is a clear indication of their untrustworthiness. These claims contradict overwhelming historical evidence.
Conclusion
Given the historical record of violence, deception, and the promotion of hate, it is prudent to approach any ideology or claims associated with Nazis with skepticism and caution.
Wikipedia
Nazi ideology is historically distrusted due to its foundation on extreme antisemitism, racial superiority, and the systematic persecution of millions, including Jews, disabled individuals, and various minority groups. This ideology led to the horrific events of the Holocaust and the devastation of World War II, causing lasting trauma and condemnation worldwide.
Sky HISTORY TV Channel annefrank.org
Nazi propaganda dehumanized Jewish people and portrayed them as subhuman, which facilitated widespread acceptance of their persecution and ultimately the Holocaust. Additionally, the regime used euphemisms and coded language to obscure the reality of their actions, contributing to ongoing Holocaust denial and distortion even after the war.
againstholocaustdistortion.org El Pais
Nazi ideology’s modern implications include the widespread use of terms like “Nazi” and “Gestapo” as insults for oppressive regimes, and the restoration of historical memorials once destroyed by the Nazis, such as the Baha’i memorial in Bad Mergentheim, Germany.
bahaiteachings.org The Holocaust Explained
Even Nazi allies had significant distrust towards the Nazis, as the Axis powers lacked comparable coordination and ideological cohesion, often prioritizing their own national interests over the alliance. This distrust was evident in the varying degrees of cooperation and the fact that some Axis countries, like Italy, even switched sides during the war.
Wikipedia United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Distrust Among Axis Powers
The Axis powers, primarily consisting of Nazi Germany, Italy, and Japan, exhibited significant distrust towards one another. This lack of cohesion stemmed from their differing national interests and ideologies.
Key Points of Distrust
National Interests: Each Axis country prioritized its own expansionist goals, often at the expense of the alliance.
Limited Coordination: Unlike the Allies, the Axis powers did not engage in regular high-level meetings or strategic coordination, leading to misunderstandings and conflicts.
Italy’s Shift: Italy, initially a key ally, switched sides in 1943 after Mussolini was overthrown. This change highlighted the fragile nature of the alliance.
Examples of Distrust
Axis Power Actions Reflecting Distrust
Germany Often acted unilaterally, disregarding Italian and Japanese concerns.
Italy Refused to transfer Jews to German custody until German occupation in 1943.
Japan Focused on its own territorial ambitions in Asia, often ignoring European strategies.
The distrust among the Axis powers ultimately contributed to their downfall, as they were unable to present a united front against the Allies.
Wikipedia The National WWII Museum
Distrust among Nazi allies during World War II stemmed from conflicting interests and ideologies, particularly between Germany and Italy, as well as the non-aggression pact between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany. Additionally, the invasion of the Soviet Union by Germany in 1941 created significant tensions, as the two nations had previously been bound by a temporary alliance.
The National WWII Museum U.S. Department of State
Italy’s switch of sides in 1943 weakened the Axis powers’ cooperation significantly, as it led to the loss of a major ally and disrupted their military strategies. This shift contributed to the overall decline of the Axis alliance during World War II.
Wikipedia United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Nazi Germany’s ideology was primarily based on nationalism, racial superiority, and anti-Semitism, while its allies, such as Italy and Japan, had their own distinct ideologies focused on fascism and militarism, respectively. Despite these differences, all Axis powers shared a common goal of territorial expansion and opposition to communism.
United States Holocaust Memorial Museum The National WWII Museum
—————-
its all right here. i simply state that fascism, is the capitalist response to socialism, and that fee trade is fascism.
“all Axis powers shared a common goal of territorial expansion and opposition to communism.”
Purple Library Guy
A lot of comments here talking up what Russia obviously could be doing but aren’t, thus proving how weak and incompetent their leadership is. Nobody seems to be able to agree on what Russia ACTUALLY IS doing, despite apparently every freaking squad in the armed forces on both sides constantly releasing bleedin’ video. If we can’t agree on what is actually going on, I’m going to need to take evidence free claims about what could be going on but isn’t with a mountain or so of salt.
cc
Ron Unz has a very intriguing suggestion for how Russia could end this US/NATO proxy war of utilizing Ukrainians as cannon fodder: a simple duel without bloodshed.
Would a Billion People Watch the “High-Tech Duel” That Decided the Ukraine War?
https://www.unz.com/runz/would-a-billion-people-watch-the-high-tech-duel-that-decided-the-ukraine-war/
It could help end the West’s Slav-against-Slav bloodshedding, and would be watched by the world.
Purple Library Guy
A note on the destruction of infrastructure: That Russia is blowing up a lot of infrastructure that the Ukrainians need in order to transport their troops and weaponry is a sign that the resistance is a lot stronger than they’d like. Because if you can take territory WITHOUT destroying that stuff, it makes it much easier to CONTINUE advancing. This way, when they start taking the turf where they’ve blown up all the gas stations and so on, they’re the ones who will be trying to move their stuff forward with no gas. They’ve decided the tradeoff is worth it because Ukrainian defence and counterattacks and medium range drone attacks are strong enough to force that decision. Presumably until now, they thought it wasn’t worth it.
There are often reasons not to escalate, or not to commit every troop you have at the same time, so on and so forth.
cc
“NATO HQ” vs “Russian Hypersonics”
For that matter, since Iran has hypersonic missiles as well, couldn’t they also declare a similar duel, perhaps against another vassal HQ in their region that has been assassinating and mass-murdering Iranians/Palestinians/Iraqis/Lebanese/Syrians/Yemenis for so many years/decades.
Announce that the HQ in question, and some reaonable radius of margin around it, should be completely evacuated during a given window of time.
“Iron Dome” vs “Iranian Hypersonics”
Either event would draw enormous world-wide audiences. Huge shows without blood-letting to end the bullies’ relentless tormenting and blood-letting.
Feral Finster
@PLG:
“That Russia is blowing up a lot of infrastructure that the Ukrainians need in order to transport their troops and weaponry is a sign that the resistance is a lot stronger than they’d like.”
That Russia has been dithering for four years while that infrastructure has been continuously used is a true testament to Russian unwillingness to fight. An I.V. Stalin would have and had no such qualms.
The Ukrainians even transport troops and equipment on scheduled passenger trains, because they know that the Russians do not attack those.
Is it cynical for Ukraine to use civilians as human shields? Yes. And it works.
Thermobarbaric
General Surovikin (aka General Armageddon), the man responsible for the planning and construction of the three tiered defensive lines in the Donbass LOC that resulted in the devastating failure of the 2023 UKR counter offensive, has written an article listing 10 target groups that he says would speed up the collapse of the Ukraine and bring an end to the war.
10 goals in Ukraine as the only alternative to the global war
https://topcor.ru/72657-10-celej-na-ukraina-kak-edinstvennaja-alternativa-globalnoj-vojne.html
PS: The original article is in Russian but the link offers English translation on my browser.
Feral Finster
I read Russian just fine. I’ve been saying similar things for four years now.
bruce wilder
The strategic problem with taking down Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in a series of targeted, catastrophic attacks is that the aftermath is going to be chaotic and restoring the infrastructure will be enormously costly and time-consuming.
If the infrastructure is brought down in areas Russia intends to annex, restoration will definitely fall on Russia.
Otherwise, failed infrastructure and the humanitarian crisis it creates could become the pretext for an intervention by the EU.
There is no assurance that the AFU remain sufficiently intact to be able to negotiate credibly.
bruce wilder
On reflection, I think I largely agree with Like & Subscribe. From the Orange Revolution 2004 onward, Putin has been playing a losing hand, sometimes very clumsily. I would quibble with L&S on whether Putin counterfactually could have found clever alternatives to war, because I think he conspicuously tried many gambits, an array in fact from propaganda abroad (RT and Sputnik), to massive investments in bypassing Ukraine for gas transit (NordStream, TurkStream), to the Minsk Accords, to offers of economic cooperation with Ukraine very competitive with EU offers).
I am not especially well-informed or in a position to offer definitive judgments on some of the particulars of Putin’s strategic and tactical management. I cannot begin to understand the rationale behind Russian secret services (or their Western counterparts) carrying out esoteric poisonings. Dioxin poisoning? Skripal is too murky for me.
I can only note some political and economic skirmishes. The Lithuanian dairy war. Serbia and Kosovo. The complex struggle in the internal politics of Georgia or Armenia.
Isolated to a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, sure Russia is bigger. But, it is not a conflict between those two states. Russia has been facing the hostile intent of the EU / NATO and the latter weighs considerably more, even if you allow for being resource-poor and crippled by advanced neoliberalism. Whether Putin and his regime are skilled players may not matter much, if the EU / NATO are determined and ruthless enough. It will be a close contest if Russia ultimately prevails, with big risks of irrational gambits by either player triggering escalation.
I think the current leadership of the EU in particular are practically fanatics, willing to suppress democratic norms to harden their polities against being persuaded by Putin to switch the game toward some cooperative frame that would permit negotiating a settlement. I was shocked by the Russiagate gaslighting in the U.S. I am also shocked by how far the EU has moved toward authoritarian measures, criminalizing expressing sympathy for “pro-Russian” views and doing heavy-handed election interference in many states.
My prior is that Western and Central Europe are economically better off in a mutually beneficial relation with Russia. I get that that is not what many European leaders believe; their view of Russia as an inherently aggressive imperial state blends with a dark, ulterior interest in seeing Russia broken as a state and dismembered. Detaching Ukraine from Russia and consuming its resources is a goal for the EU, but with more bites to follow.
I do not think the War in Ukraine is going well for Russia. Wars of attrition that take more than four years are not obviously winnable by the nominally more powerful Power. And, it is hard to tell in this case, whether that’s Russia or the EU / NATO acting thru proxy. Russia is under a lot of pressure to find a tactical change to crack a hard nut — and it is not clear which nut they should focus on — Kiev or Brussels.
I doubt whether Putin sees the SMO as a “wrong move” even though I see it as unwise. Even though he hasn’t gotten a settlement, he has convinced most Russians that Europe is a fanatic enemy and that has enabled a reinvigorated military and shifted gears for the Russian economy, advancing Russia ahead of Japan and Germany in terms of real output in global rankings. Those are not stable end-points without a favorable resolution to combat in Ukraine.
Like & Subscribe
According to Jamison Firestone, the Ukraine invasion was purely Putin’s idea — nobody in his inner circle knew it was coming or expected it. THAT fits. It explains why it’s been a miserable failure thus far and why Russia will lose the war in the end.
Here’s a video of Firestone discussing it with Scaramucci. Scaramucci looks like he just rolled out of bed (that crazy hair) but nonetheless, Firestone’s story is fascinating to say the least. Tune to 16:20 but listen/watch the whole thing if you can find the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUYuYpG6OFQ
bruce wilder
Thanks for the Scaramucci / Firestone video. It was indeed interesting.
Unfortunately, I don’t have enough live brain cells to sort out the Bill Browder story — too much yarn! The good kleptocratic oligarchs vs the bad kleptocratic oligarchs? Just gives me a headache.