Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: Ukraine War Page 1 of 7

The Middle East Is Hastening Ukraine’s Fall & The End of the European Era

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On June 25, 2025

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The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

Rarely spoken of is the effects of the Middle Eastern wars on Ukraine. For a long time, Ukraine got everything it wanted, but since Oct 7th, it has been , or worse, on America’s priority list. Mossad has a great deal of influence in America, just short of control, almost certainly due to a sickening collection of videos and pictures, and Israel has received the first cut off everything it needed: most especially of interceptor missiles.

Even so, the reason that Israel and the US called for a ceasefire and Iran did not (though it accepted one) is that Israel was less than a week from running out of air defense missiles, and as best I can tell, the US could only have supplied about another 7-10 days worth.

What this means for Ukraine is simple enough, they’re being absolutely hammered by Russian missiles and bombs. They don’t have enough air defense, they don’t have enough missiles for the air defense, and there is no reasonable prospect of re-stocking. The West’s larder is empty.

The tempo of Russia advances continues to increase. It’s still slow, but it’s at least eight times as fast as it was a year ago, and as Ukraine runs out of men, weapons and ammunition (Western shortages go far beyond air defense), plus as morale continues to plummet in Ukrainian armed forces, the prospect of “big arrow” warfare grows closer.

As I’ve said before I expect that period will arrive next year. The fighting age male population is decimated, those willing to fight are or will be mostly dead, and Russia will win the war decisively, taking whatever they want to. The only danger of this not happening is Putin accepting a peace offer before that: like Khameini, he is very cautious, doesn’t like war and wants it over. If Zelensky ever gets his head on straight, or is replaced, he’s likely to accept a peace deal much short of what can be accomplished by arms and an unconditional surrender.

This will be a HUGE loss for the West. The first war they have decisively lost on the battlefield in generations. There will be no concealing it, and the inability to ramp up production of weapon systems and munitions will leave the collective West so weak that no one will be able to believe they could win a conventional war against China, or even Russia.

It will, psychologically, be the end of Western hegemony. For almost 400 years the West has been dominant, and since Industrial Revolution, overwhelmingly dominant.

That era is almost over. The economic aftershocks will be huge: the end of American dollar hegemony is likely within five years, ten at the most and the entire world except, perhaps, Canada, the US and Europe, will re-orient to China. The US will even lose South Korea and Japan as reliable allies, indeed, it arguably already has (more on that another time.)

This is a literal epochal period. The “nothing ever happens” fools are missing that this is the end of a literal era: the era of European supremacy (the US is just a European settler state and Britain’s successor.)

The new era will be multipolar only if China wants it to be. They are approaching “America after WWII” levels of industrial and technological power. However, for at time, they will probably allow a multipolar world, as they are smart enough not to want to be a superpower or “world cop.”

Normally this would cycle to a superpower period, but environmental issues are likely to short-circuit normal macro-geopolitical cycles. Everyone will wind up in survival mode, and the question will be who manages this best. Whoever does will lead the next cycle, which will occur long after most or all of us are dead.

So, as best you can, you may as well be interested. You are living in truly interesting times, which come around only every half millenia or so.

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Ukrainian War End Prediction

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On June 11, 2025

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When the war started, I predicted that Russia would win militarily. That was an easy, obvious prediction based on the fact that Russia is larger, has more industry, and that China would not allow sanctions to take out Russia, knowing it would be next, but would keep the Russian economy running.

This prediction is a little more risky because the war could end due to a peace deal. There’s no question that Ukraine is losing, and that the battlefield is getting worse and worse for them.

Russian forces are back within 300 kilometers of Kiev. While advances are slow, they are speeding up. The Ukrainians are running out of manpower, are considering mobilizing women for infantry, and have huge problems with desertion and recruitment. Russia has ramped up weapon production far more than the West.

So I’m going to keep this one simple: The war will end next year with the Ukrainian army collapsing. Ukraine will be forced into an unconditional surrender, and Russia will take what it wants.

There’s lots of ways this could go wrong. The Euros could rush in “peacekeeping forces.” Putin could agree to peace before then. The “Ukrainians” could provoke Russia into using tac nukes with their strikes of strategic nuclear infrastructure. Putin might die, and if he does he’ll be replaced by someone far more aggressive. So this isn’t a “sure thing” prediction, just a best guess.

But basically, that guess is that the Ukrainian army collapses next year, and we see huge “big arrow” movement.

Putin is likely to remember the lessons of Syria’s frozen conflict, and of Russia and Ukraine’s fake peace of 2014/2015. No frozen conflicts, no fanatical enemies still able to fight. Russia has paid dearly to crush Ukraine, and it would be foolish to throw away what is being won on the battlefield at a fake peace conference with Europeans and Americans who have no intention of keeping any deal.

So, most likely, he will win the war and impose the peace. If he’s really smart, he’ll take Odessa and turn Ukraine into a landlocked state, even if that means some extra casualties and time.

Russia was always going to win the war. The questions are simply when, by how much, and what Ukraine is left with afterwards.

***

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Western Leaders Continue To Live In A Delusional LaLa Land With Respect To The Ukraine War

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On May 11, 2025

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Putin's Goals by GrimJim

Putin’s goals by GrimJim

So, the Europeans have said that Russia must grant an unconditional 30 day ceasefire, or they’ll ramp up aid to Ukraine and put on more sanctions, including some against Nord Stream II. They claim Trump is onside, but Trump hasn’t confirmed this.

The Russians have indicated willingness for a thirty day ceasefire, but they have a condition: for those thirty days, weapon shipments from the West to Ukraine must stop and Putin has straight up rejected the unconditional ceasefire.

What a surprise.

What Europeans want is for Russia, which is winning on the ground, to give them thirty days to rearm Ukraine. Can’t imagine why Russia won’t go for that.

The Euros are delusional. They have no leverage. They’ve already said they intend to end all energy purchases from Russia as soon as they can. (That isn’t yet, they’re buying tons of Russian energy still, it just goes thru India first.)

Why the hell would Russia agree to give Ukraine time to re-arm and entrench without something in return.

Once again, Russia’s best alternative to a negotiated agreement is to simply win the war. And while advances are still slow, they’re all on Russia’s side and the Ukrainian army is showing signs of being near the breaking point. They’ve also been pushed past almost all of their prepared defenses.

Personally, I think Putin is being incredibly generous offering a ceasefire at all. I think that’s a mistake.

But the Euros are living in LalaLand. They don’t have any real leverage and they keep acting like they do. Ukraine is losing. Nothing the US and Europe can do, short of declaring war, will change that fact. And since the Euros have admitted the Minsk accord were signed with the intention of building up the Ukrainian army for another war, well, why the hell would Putin want to make a new deal that creates another frozen conflict?

Just insane. Europe doesn’t get that they are a has-been power, in serious decline and that they just can’t push other nations around any more. They don’t have the muscle or the industrial base or the tech lead any more.

The war will be ended on Russia’s terms unless Putin is incredibly foolish. That’s possible, contrary to the Western narrative Putin isn’t a Hawk, he’s the least Hawkish person anywhere near power in Russia. If he was to have a heart attack tomorrow, whoever replaced him would be far more militaristic and far less restrained. Putin prefers peace. He’s just learned, probably, that peace can’t be made with the West, it must be imposed.

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Understanding America’s Betrayal Of Ukraine

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On March 6, 2025

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Let’s start with this: Ukraine is losing the war, and the longer it goes on the worse the peace deal will be. I absolutely agree with Trump that there needs to be a peace deal, and soon.

But the rhetoric coming out of the Trump administration and its proxies suggests that America owes Ukraine nothing, and that indeed, Ukraine owes America for all its support. This sounds reasonable, on the face of it, but only if you don’t know any history.

Let’s start with the 2014 Maidan protests which overthrew the Ukrainian government. They were a color revolution, heavily supported by the Americans and Europeans. Say what you will about Yanukovych, he was the elected President. There’s decent evidence that the sniper massacre was done by Maidan itself (see this academic study), and, post-coup, Ukraine was essentially run by Victoria Nuland.

The Maidan coup came in response to Yanukovych’s decision to accept Russia’s aid package instead of the West’s. This was the correct decision: Russia offered more money and aid with less strings, while the Western aid came with IMF restructuring. If you know anything about the IMF you know that their restructuring is always painful, and it doesn’t improve host nations economies. It does, however, increase inequality, and opens up the economy so foreigners can buy in.

Back in 2008 there was a brief Georgian/Russian war. Georgia had regions which were ethnically Russian, and they were de-facto independent, and recognized as such by Russia. When Georgia invaded South Ossetia, Russia counter-invaded. At the time, I wrote an article for FireDogLake predicting the next Russian war would be over Crimea and Sevastopol. Sevastopol is Russia’s main Black Sea port, and a Russian “hero city,” — much beloved. Ukraine leased it to Russia, and if Ukraine ever moved to kick the Russians out I predicted the Russians would go to war rather than comply.

Put simply, Sevastopol was and is a key Russia interest.

After the coup, Ukraine threatened to end the Russian lease. Russia invaded Crimea, and took it over. (Don’t cry too much, most Crimeans, except the Tatars, would much rather be Russian). Meanwhile, the East of Ukraine went into revolt, because they are mostly, actually Russian and had supported the ousted President. A small war was fought over that. The Russians intervened, routed the Ukrainians, and they set up a peace deal called the Minsk accord, which basically gave Donetsk and Luhansk semi-autonomy.

Notice that without the coup, which was backed by the US, there would have been no 2014 war between Ukraine and Russia, no loss of Crimea, or and no semi-independence for the far East of Ukraine.

The coup was anti-democratic, overthrowing a legitimately elected government which was accepting the best deal offered. (And folks, I’ve studied IMF deals. They are always bad. Always.)

Of course, having lost a war and territory, Ukraine now becomes very anti-Russia, at least in the West of the country. Understandable. Then there’s a HUGE military buildup. And, although Minsk was sold as the end of the matter, it was negotiated in bad faith by the West. This has been confirmed:

The West didn’t want peace, it wanted a chance to build up the Ukrainian military for the next round.

That next round came after Ukraine spent a lot of time shelling the hell out of Luhansk and Donetsk; this was a violation of the Minsk agreement. Then Ukraine and NATO started talking about Ukraine joining NATO, which Russia had made clear was a red line.

Now here’s the thing: Absent the US backed Maidan coup, there would be no Ukrainian war. It wouldn’t have happened. Additionally, absent the huge build up of the Ukranian military, again US- and EU-backed, there would have been no war, because Ukraine wouldn’t have risked it.

The US used Ukraine in a proxy war, after an anti-democratic coup. The West genuinely believed that sanctions would break Russia and allow Ukraine to win the war, and hoped that the loss would cause a break-up of Russia. Unfortunately for them, China needed Russia as an ally, and kept the Russian economy running, and it is Europe that was damaged by the sanctions, while Russia’s economy is, overall, booming.

Back near the start of the war, a peace offer was on the table, far more generous than anything Ukraine can expect now. Boris Johnson, Britain’s Prime Minister, with US support, told Zelensky not to take it — NATO would back him to the hilt, and Zelensky could win the war.

Fast forward: Ukraine is losing the war. On a map, Russian gains over the last year aren’t all that large, but the Ukrainian army is running out of manpower, and is being pushed past its line of prepared defenses. When the Ukrainian army breaks, and it will, the Russians will start making huge advances very quickly.

Now, Trump comes in, and acts as if America had nothing to do with all this and, further, acts like Ukraine has taken advantage of American generosity instead of Ukraine being an American proxy, which has been devastated after an American coup pushed it into a war with a much stronger country and America and the UK told Ukraine not to take a better peace deal.

Trump’s attempting to get Ukrainian minerals in “repayment” for America pushing Ukraine into a war it couldn’t win, and is not even offering security guarantees in exchange. I loathe Zelensky, but he’s right to reject this one-sided “deal.”

This is despicable. This is honorless. The very least Ukraine deserves from America is a sincere effort to cut, for Ukraine, the best peace deal they can get.

Now Zelensky is delusional. Threats to fight on and a refusal to negotiate are insane. Russia’s BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) is to just continue the war, win it, and impose an unconditional surrender. Think Japan and Germany at the end of World War II.

But American negotiation seems to be about making the best deal for America, not for Ukraine.

My suggestion would be that Zelensky ask the Chinese to host negotiations. Yes, they’re Russia’s ally, BUT they’ve always supported a peace deal, and more importantly, they’re the only nation which really does have leverage over Russia; without China, Russia cannot survive economically. And, unlike America, China has said it is willing to put peacekeepers in Ukraine. Russia is NOT going to target Chinese troops.

Further, if China promises to rebuild Ukraine, it will do so, and do so quickly and competently. The Chinese are the best in the world at building roads, railways, ports, power plants, and all other types of infrastructure.

Ukraine’s government was effectively controlled by the West, and pushed into a war it couldn’t win. They need to end their Western alliance, and cut the best deal they can get. That means, especially, not letting Trump negotiate, because he’s not negotiating for them, but for America.

It’s a bad hand, an awful one. But it’s the hand Ukraine has to play.

As for American claims that Ukraine used them, rather the other way around, they are without merit and beyond dishonorable.

Let’s give Kissinger the final word:

“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

 

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Understanding the Russian-American Ukraine Peace Negotiations

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On February 19, 2025

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Let’s take a look at these negotiations in more detail. First, a summary of Secretary of State Rubio’s:

  • Ending the conflict in Ukraine will require “difficult and intense diplomacy” over a long period of time.
  • Ending the conflict in Ukraine will require concessions from all sides and is only possible with their consent, the conditions must be “acceptable”
  • Trump wants to end the conflict in Ukraine fairly and not allow it to resume “in 2-3 years”
  • The EU must be at the negotiating table at some point, as it imposed sanctions against Russia
  • The future of the negotiation process on Ukraine will be determined by the willingness of the parties to “keep their promises”, this will be shown in the coming weeks
  • Ending the conflict in Ukraine will open the way for Russia and the US to cooperate in economics and geopolitics
  • There have been no significant US-Russia contacts for almost three years, the meeting in Riyadh laid the foundation for future interaction
  • Work to restore the activities of Russian and US diplomatic missions could be quite quick
  • Restoring the normal operation of the US and Russian diplomatic missions is the “next stage” of the negotiation process between the two countries, since the US considers it impossible to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine without the normal operation of diplomatic missions

This is all remarkably sensible, actually, and the idea that the two great powers with the most nuclear weapons did not have regular diplomatic contacts was always dangerous and stupid.

As discussed here before, the American intention is to make Europe provide peacekeepers and pay for reconstruction, and America hopes to force Ukraine to sign over a large amount of mineral rights, though Zelensky has, quite rightly, so far refused to do so.

Meanwhile, there’s this piece of wishful thinking:

The United States is trying to “break up” Russia’s alliances with Iran, China, and North Korea. This was announced by Keith Kellogg, the US President’s special representative for Ukraine, during a conference in Munich, CNN reports.

Some commenters think that this is what America and Russia want — an end to the above alliances and:

What Putin wants: No NATO membership, (non-negotiable), 4 oblasts in Ukraine and Crimea, including territories not currently occupied by Russia

What Trump wants: Break ties with China (non-negotiable), join US sanctions on China

I’m reasonably certain ending the alliance with China and joining US sanctions on China is a non-starter, and if that’s non-negotiable, then there isn’t going to be a deal. China, North Korea, and Iran all helped Russia when Russia desperately needed help. It is no exaggeration to say that if China had not supported Russia’s economy, the anti-Russia sanctions would have worked, and Iran and North Korea provided weapons and munitions the Russians desperately needed while they were ramping up domestic production.

While simultaneously trying to cut this deal, Trump is turning on long-term allies, threatening them with sanctions — and in the case of Greenland/Denmark, even saying he refuses to rule out using military force. America’s record of keeping agreements is abysmal.

Over the decades of observing Putin, I’d say that he values reliability more than almost anything else. The Iranians, North Koreans, and Chinese are reliable. America is not.

In negotiations there’s a concept known as BATNA: your Best Alternative To A Negotiated Agreement.

Russia’s is simple enough: It’s winning the war. Unless America is literally willing to go to war with Russia, there’s nothing they can do to stop Russia from winning, and then impose a peace after a Ukrainian unconditional surrender.

What’s America going to do, impose more sanctions? The Russia economy has done better under Western sanctions than it did before the sanction regime. Send more military aid? Cupboards are damn near bare. The only viable threat America has is to hit deeper into Russia, and that’s a real threat, but since such weapons are aimed and fired by Western specialists, that risks war with Russia.

What can America offer as an ally that China can’t? Only a removal of sanctions. That would be valuable mostly if it meant repair of NordStream and renewal of gas to Europe, but America wants to keep Europe as a captive customer for U.S. LNG (which is twice as expensive).

It’s hard for me to see why Russia would agree to get rid of reliable allies, and turn on China in exchange for an agreement from America which Putin must regard as unreliable. Sure, he’d like a negotiated peace, and an end to the war, but Ukraine’s army looks close to collapse. When that happens, Russia will suddenly start taking huge swathes of Ukraine. And “No NATO” is entirely achievable in an unconditional surrender.

Plus, Europe’s politics are changing. Parties which oppose hostility to Russia are coming on strong, and Europe is furious at Trump’s actions, and the words of his proxies. Right now, Europe is still full-on in support of Ukraine, and generally supports an anti-Russian stance, but time is likely to break that unity of hatred.

It’s not that Trump is wrong to want to break up the Russia-China axis. Pushing Russia into China’s camp was one of the greatest unforced errors of post-Cold War diplomacy, and an error I’ve written about in the past. With Russia in China’s camp, anti-China sanctions cannot work, because Russia is a land-based supplier of the food, mineral, fuel which cannot be interdicted.

But the ship has sailed. You can’t undo almost 50 years of anti-Russia policy overnight, because the last 50 years have proved to Russia that America can’t be trusted to keep agreements and, overall, China is far more reliable.

Suppose Russia cooperates against China, and America does manage to take out China. Who do you think would be next? Who does Putin think would be next?

So if joining anti-China sanctions really is non-negotiable, then these talks will fail. My guess is that this negotiation point isn’t actually required or non-negotiable, and that Trump really wants this war over one way or the other. But if this requirement is non-negotiable, the war will continue.

Meanwhile, restoring proper diplomacy between Russia and America is a good thing. We’ll see what comes of it.

 

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Europe and Ukraine Aren’t at the Peace Table; That Means They’re on It

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On February 17, 2025

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Russia and America are going to have a peace summit about the Ukraine war — without Ukraine or any European country. This is slightly less ridiculous than the previous peace summit, which didn’t include Russia because Russia can fight on without anyone but China’s support, whereas if the Ukraine tried to fight on without US support, it’s cooked.

Well, sort of. Ukraine is cooked any way you look at it. It was always going to lose the war, and that hasn’t changed.

What’s amusing about the what’s being floated is that Europe is supposed to send the peacekeepers and pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine and the US is supposed to… well, maybe get some of Ukraine’s wealth, though Zelensky has quite rightly refused to sign that deal.

Interestingly Zelensky had, at first, expressed willingness, but when he got to the White House, it turned out that he was being offered nothing in return. It seems the Trumpian right feels that Ukraine has been taking advantage of America and owes it.

So, the US, which was the primary actor behind the Maidan coup and Ukraine’s actions since then which contributed to the war, who was almost certainly responsible for cutting Europe/Germany off from Nord Stream gas through sabotage, wants the Euros to foot the entire bill for ending the war.

Any European leader willing to chew down on this has less than zero self-respect.

And the sheer chutzpah of saying that Ukraine has taken advantage of America reminds me of the guy V.P Cheney shot apologizing to him. None of this would have happened if the US hadn’t pushed for it every step of the way, and the US and UK were responsible for Ukraine not taking an early, far better peace deal.

The issue, of course, is that neither Europe nor Ukraine can sustain the war without American support. It’s lost, but the Euros could veto the deal if they could keep the war going alone and drag it out enough that it was worth Putin dealing with them.

There is another way, of course. Europe could offer Putin an end to sanctions and repair of NordStream. They could ask China to be the peace guarantor, which makes sense because China is, actually, the only country Russia has no choice but to listen to. They could cut a deal with China at the same time.

Then they could leave NATO and build their own militaries up. Kick out 90% of all American diplomats and all remaining post-USAID NGOs at the same time, to help avoid the inevitable coup attempts.

All this requires is either a modicum of self-respect or a scintilla of self-interest. When Europe’s power has disintegrated to the point where they don’t even have a seat at the table on how a war being fought on their soil should be ended, it’s either a wake-up call, or the end of Europe’s significance.

More realistically the best hope is that multiple European governments fall and are replaced by those who have enough pride or self-interest to strop grovelling.

Europe has no prospect of being what it once was. But it could be a regional great power. It’s that, or returning to what it was for much of history, a meaningless Eurasian peninsula full of barbarians.

 

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Trump’s Laughable Sanction Threats Against Russia

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On January 24, 2025

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The US thru a kitchen sink of sanctions at Russia after the start of the Ukraine war, including freezing their foreign assets. The result?

The number is exaggerated, given Russian inflation, but even inflation adjusted, Russia’s doing fine.

It is impossible to choke out Russia with sanctions if China isn’t willing to go a long. (India not cooperating is the cherry on top.) Cannot be done. Impossible.

In fact, sanctions against Russia have been a huge favor to it, forcing a vast surge in import substitution, improving its industry, creating a booming economy whose only real problem is inflation. Russian oligarchs have been forced to spend their money and effort in Russia instead of wasting their money in the West. Meanwhile the sanctions have damaged Europe massively, though somewhat to the benefit of America, since much energy-intensive industry in Europe is shutting down and moving to the US.

If Trump wants peace for Ukraine with Russia he’s going to have to offer a good deal. Threats won’t cut it. Or just wait for the Russians to win and impose a peace.

Since Trump appears to be reducing aid to Ukraine, that will happen sooner than otherwise. Perhaps it’s his real strategy, or more likely, he’s simply incoherent. Russia halting along the current lines would be stupid of them, since they’re advancing inexorably and all reports are of significant Ukrainian manpower shortages.

Trump’s always been a bully, but Russia isn’t one of America’s vassals or satrapies. It’s a junior ally in the Chinese sphere, and Trump doesn’t have the economic or military leverage to make it do anything. The only country in the world which can force Russia is China, and China isn’t going to help America v.s. Russia under any likely Trump policy regime.

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What Does Ukraine Look Like Post War If Russia Imposes The Peace?

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On November 22, 2024

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If you want to demilitarize a country you can do it by treaty, or you can do it by fact. Germany was demilitarized after WWI, but it retained the ability to build a large military and eventually did so.

The Russian view is that Ukraine needs to be demilitarized, de-Nazified and made neutral, it will otherwise remain a threat to them.

The demilitarization strategy is fairly simple: kill or disable everyone who can and will fight. This has been a grinding war, but at almost every stage Russia has had air, drone and artillery supremacy. It has taken great care to disperse attacking troops and to keep its own casualties down.

Casualty ratios are a matter of great dispute, but I cannot imagine that the side with air, drone and artillery superiority is taking the most casualties. I would guess the exchange rate is between 3:1 and 6:1. Once again, we won’t know until some years after the war.

Ukraine’s population is crashing. Pre war it was 42 million, as of 2023 it was probably 28 million and there’s no way it is not even lower now.

So to a large extent Russian tactics support the goal of demilitarization. Even if Russia could do “big arrow”, why do them before the Ukrainian military is ground to dust and Ukraine is demographically exhausted? Win the war, but fail to end Ukraine’s ability and willingness to fight and there’s just going to be another war.

Which is why anything but a neutral Ukraine, genuinely neutral, or a Russian satrapy is also unacceptable. Ukraine wasn’t and isn’t part of NATO but that didn’t keep NATO from using it as a cat’s paw against Russia. If Russia wants a defanged, safe Ukraine on its border, it’s no longer just about staying out of NATO, true Austrian cold war style neutrality will be required.

And the since the neo-Nazis who are influential in the military and government, despite their small numbers, will never not be hostile to Russia, Ukraine has to be be de-Nazified. Out of the military, out of power, and either dead or in prison for a very long time.

Demographics isn’t the only thing which creates capability to fight, of course. The more of Ukraine that Russia takes, the weaker Ukraine will be in the future. What is particularly important is to take the entire coast and landlock the Ukrainian hump, but farther West Russia takes land, the less of a threat Ukraine is to the Russian heartlands.

Smaller population, worse geography, no Nazis anywhere near power, no allies to feed it weapons and help it fortify, and genuinely neutral: these are Russia’s post war goals for Ukraine.

These are maximal goals, and they require a completely defeated Ukraine, likely one that signs an uncoditional surrender. If they can be accomplished with a negotiated surrender, fine, but if Russia is wise it will fight till it gets the terms necessary to defang Ukraine and make it useless as a Western catspaw.

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