“As far as I’m concerned, it’s over,” Trump said at the ongoing Nato summit in Ankara when asked if the truce with Iran was now finished.
“It’s just a waste of time dealing with them,” AFP reported.
He blasted Iran’s leaders after Washington launched strikes on the Islamic Republic and Iran said it targeted US bases in the Gulf.
“They’re sick, there’s something wrong with them,” he said.
Treasury also re-instated oil sanctions on Iran.
The simple calculus is that the US was trying to re-open the Strait through Oman waters, and while they got a few ships thru, the Iranians stopped most of them hit some. As long as the Strait stays closed, the US is under pressure, because there is a physical economy, and reserves are running down, leaving aside shortages in fertilizer, helium and so on.
Iran just needs to keep the Strait closed to put pressure on the US homeland. As usual, the US can’t be hit directly by its enemies, so this is Iran’s way of hurting America even though its missiles can’t reach American cities.
On the other hand, the US can directly hit Iran, and if they didn’t actually want peace on the terms of the MOU, which apparently they didn’t (though I think this is a factional dispute inside the administration), then going back to hitting Iran makes sense.
Problem is that if the Iranian military does what it’s threatening to do, which is to blow the hell out of oil infrastructure in the Gulf States, the shortages will last years.
And the US isn’t leaving Iran with a lot of other options in terms of escalation.
Anyway, we’ll see what happens. Trump’s decisions have the consistency of runny jello, the real question is if the Iranian hard line faction wins their internal debate and is given the green light to go all out.
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bruce wilder
Have you seen a report of a specific ship actually sinking?
Ian Welsh
You’re right, hit, not sunk:
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-east/tanker-set-ablaze-struck-projectile-strait-hormuz-iran-mourns-khamenei-rcna353264
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Don’t worry, tomorrow the “bruce (haha)” will be back again and then off again the next day and then on again the next day and off again the next day and back and forth we will go into infinity. Trump is McLovin’ this. It so feeds his narcissistic ego. The news hangs on his every word and action.
I have to say, it was awesome to see the Iranians stoning that billboard of Trump and then tearing it down and destroying his effigy. We need more of that or even some of it here in America versus these monotonous, boring content creators screeching every day that Trump is dying or he’s panicking or he’s collapsing.
Me? I’m still waiting to see if Iran’s leadership makes good on its threat to put a micro drone in Agent Orange’s navel. What are they waiting for? Orders from Putin?
Purple Library Guy
Trump: “They’re sick, there’s something wrong with them. They . . . FIGHT BACK!”
Bill
Unfortunately, it seems the only thing that will stop the US-Israeli war machine from attacking Iran is for Iran to have nuclear weapons like the US-Israel side. I know Iran has frequently said it does not want them. If Iran wants to keep it’s religion and society, it seems they will need to go the North Korea route with these horrible weapons
Mark Level
bruce is right, LAS is also right, it’s a distinction with little difference. If the ship is hit but not sunk, it’s still not getting out with oil any time soon, if ever.
Orange Neo-Caligula holding his breath until . . . Oh, continuation of last thread, he’s holding other people’s breaths, they’re the ones that will starve, freeze, die outdoors during “Imaginary” (say the Rs) Climate Change and wildfires, become homeless or die. I should buy a Lottery Ticket today. Just made 2 new friends returning home with a.m. coffee, and LAS saying sensible things.
Oh, an additional update from previous thread, posted here for convenience– https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-fetterman-graham-platner-bernie-sanders/?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us
Fetterman a Genocidal, Brain-Dead Lunatic calling anyone “a dirtbag,” is quite rich. But the Maine Establishment Dimmies will almost certainly do his bidding.
Fetterman at least has a defense if he lives long enough that there are War Crimes trials for Genociders. Didn’t know any better, the mental capacity of a sponge. “I love Izrael!! More dead Palestinian women and babies, yayyy!! USA!! USA!!
Feral Finster
I have said all along that there was zero possibility that the United States would carry out any of its obligations under the MoU but would use it as an opportunity to get oil prices under control, regroup, reload, fine tune the algos, and then take another swing.
cc
Exactly 3 weeks ago, on June 17, Trump said “We run out of reserves in about four weeks”.
–
A Bloomberg graphic posted by MoA in early June had estimated global (as opposed to just US) oil inventories reaching a breaking point by September in terms of keeping pipelines and refineries operating.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/06/war-on-iran-economic-reality-will-force-trump-to-defy-the-lobbys-pressure.html
Carborundum
I don’t think it’s accurate to say that only a few ships made it out. Keplr is reporting 77 crossings on July 6th and 7th, most outbound. It looks to me like the bulk of the traffic is south of where the Iranian channels are said to be located. Still way, way down from pre-war norms, but not 0 either.
https://x.com/Kpler/status/2074803095721144539
Mark Level
Assuming 77 tankers get out, that’s something, not 0, but not Salvation either. I listened to Amy Goodman this morning, only one segment, technical problems at their site after that, but news that the bombing of Iranian Infrastructure led directly to Bahrain and UAE Shelter sirens, going to get hit hard. AND, the biggie: CentCom looking at pullout from nearly all of the former bases in Western Asia, leveled to the ground. We’re going to have bases IN Israel instead!! At same time R’s stirring to create full integration of US MIC under our Death Cult Masters, there will be no possibility of removing that Albatross from the US Neck.
I have predicted, correctly so far, that US will hold on to Iraqi bases, closest geographically and barring a full-scale popular uprising and expenditure of asymmetric warfare, keeping that will be costly and time- and resource-consuming.
Colonel Doug MacGregor on with Danny Davis notes US short of missiles, the whole thing may be aspirational Hopium. Whomever is directing things (Trump obviously a senile front-man at this point, let him babble and make his Bitchy Attacks on everyone not in his cult), they are still overextended and dysfunctional. Trump-announced plan to withdraw from Europe cancelled by the higher-ups, these people CANNOT think outside of the box. Fact that senile early Boomers like Trump, Kellog’s Korn Flakes who believe we are still the Superpower or Hegemon we were in the 1980s-90s. Those days are gone, as is these old men’s ability to get it up without massive Viagra dosages.
Iran not negotiating on any level with bad-faith US (this is beyond Trump.) Finster correct, cynical at the right level and not Nihilist in the least. MacGregor thinks Israel MUST fully destroy Iran to survive; given the difference in Size, ZE sees their rich and people with dual passports fleeing, 2 million Zionist Monsters at most, vs. 91-93 Million massive, mountainous nation, huge production of Missile Batteries underground, while US pays for billion$, poor quality crap like F-35 shit planes. If Erdogan really wants to buy that shit, he is an ignorant sucker, he gains “Daddy’s” favor, it freaks out Bibi & Co., but unlikely to be a Wunder Waffen, not unlikely impossible. Iran the size of most of Western Europe. As in Vietnam you can kill hundreds of thousands, millions, but you can’t kill them all. Gulf States a different story.
Taking my cue from Wilkerson, MacGregor, Larry Johnson etc. I think Israel is on its last legs. They can provoke the entire destruction of the Gulf States, Saudis, Qatar, no water, desalinization plants, unable to get oil out. Their former Allies!! Lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas. Lie down with rapists, wake up with a burning, infected anus.
Lastly, the Shoe about to drop and Fat Lady near singing in Russia, Ukraine, so losses across the board coming. Kissinger spilled the beans, it is fatal to ally your country with the US, even moreso with the Zionist Entity.
Realists like Mearsheimer demonized, ignored. Let psychos like Hegseth, Bibi, etc. run wild, result will be a Fuhrer Bunker, RoW united against US/ZE.
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Carb, WHAT ships are making it out? Only the ships that Iran approves?
bruce wilder
??? am I being referenced somehow? meaning?
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Sorry, bruce, it was a purposeful typo. It’s meant to be “truce”. Whenever I see the letter string “ruce”, you come to mind.
Mark Level
bruce, ICE killed another man today, driving to work, he’d lived in the US for 35 years, it was the same set-up as Renee Good, except he was driving to Work, not school, on the 6 months Anniversary of her killing. In Houston, see the report from Democracy Now!, see here– https://www.democracynow.org/2026/7/8/headlines/ice_agent_fatally_shoots_mexican_father_during_houston_traffic_stop
I’m wondering if you can Mansplain this one as well as you did with Renee Good (she was a lesbian mom of 4, lover had pink hair, gross!) and Alex Pretti, he kicked out a taillight before being shot 5 times in the back while legal-carrying a gun he never brandished or threatened anyone with, but you think destruction of gov’t./cop property carries a Death Penalty without trial punishment?
I doubt this man is Gay or destroyed property, but hope you will report back to us as to whether this 3rd (not just the 3rd, but the 3rd I’m referencing) case was all justified? Oh, it was exact same M.O. as Ms. Good, he tried to turn away from them, shot dead with pretend “bodily injury” case.
Feel strange being on the same side as LAS, but on specific issues I will take (temporary) allies where needed.
mago
Scum, cheaters, liars, they’re sick there must be something wrong with them says the toad shitting on his golden throne.
The mirror on the wall asks who’s the most evil of us all.
And the billion eyed fly launches off disgusted.
If the technology and its users still exist when the nuclear dust settles, however crippled and deformed, nobody’s gonna be talking about who’s got the biggest pair. It’s gonna be about raw survival.
Smoke in the air, trouble and turbulence everywhere.
Lawyers and Jesus aren’t going to help you here.
Suerte a todos.
Don’t gamble on the future.
Dan Kelly
I just did a search for ‘Mark Level’ at Ian Welsh’ site on google AI (yeah, I know, but I gotta see what’s out there)…and Mark, you and your body of work here are recognized by the machine!!!!
Congrats man.
The algo don’t know me.
Carborundum
If one consults the viz that Kpler posted, the red triangles are tankers. Overall, it looks to me like something on the order of twenty or so tankers went outbound over the course of those two days. Keep in mind, we have no idea how big these tankers were. There’s all sorts of ships in and out of Hormuz and no guarantee that these are VLCCs – though the Saudis are apparently messaging that they shipped something on the order of 34 million barrels through Hormuz since the ceasefire in mid-June (material, but quite a bit lower than their normal volume).
The maps I have seen of the Iranian channel show it running north of Larak Island, while the vast majority of the transits shown in the Kpler video run south of it. Eyeballing it, I think they’re mainly running in the usual shipping channels, which would be consistent with the Kpler post mentioning IMO routing. No idea what this might mean for payment of Iranian tolls.
bruce wilder
Mark Level —
If you are interested in a further explication of my views on a particular topic, you might wait for a related subject to come up in a post and solicit my opinion, should I uncharacteristically fail to express myself.
Attempting with provocative insults to hijack threads on unrelated topics demonstrates bad manners.
Mark Level
Thanks, Dan, I will look into that, and I appreciate your spade work, and sense of curiousity!! My curiousity is the one thing that keeps me growing and lifelong-learning.
If I ever write my Autohagiography (I already have a great title), I might slip some Ian Welsh stuff into the content. Not the petty arguments we sometimes have here, like “When are ICE killings a GOOD thing?” or “Should all Russians be slowly raped and tortured and starved for ending Fascism at the cost of 23 million lives?” or “Why do Russians, and Palestinians, and Iranians have no right to self-defense” (hint: it’s coz some folks perceive them as non-white).
I hope you’re not pulling my leg, but you seem like a decent guy, and a fellow survivor of Brit attempts to exteminate us “White Chimpanzees”, so thank you. In addition to my one professional Translating Credit in publishing, from Spanish to English, a German Mystic and Mason’s metaphysical rant, Logos, Mantra, Magic, this would be a 2nd star to wear on my vest, kind of like the Bunk House Boys’ Patches that Dale Cooper is awarded in Twin Peaks. Pretty good for a 10% Spaniard and Sardinian, 1% Mongol, 89% White Man, as I have been assured in recent months that my Culture doesn’t exist and never has, though my Spanish ancestors beat my White ones to immigrating to the US by approximately 250 years (1880s for the Germans fleeing failed Revolutions after 1848, subtract 250, you’ve got your answer.
Cheers!!
Mark Level
Shorter Bruce Wilder: “Brownish peasant, if you wish to supplicate my attention, you must do it on an appropriate thread.” Got it, White Boss-man.
Here’s the thing, Cobarde, Go Big or Go Home! Frigging come out and say it, “that dirty Mexican with no criminal record after nearly 35 years in the Belly of the Beast deserved to be Executed for Driving While Brown” and take your Trifecta. Or wuss out, raise your regal nose to the air, “I am not subject to questions from the Plebs.”
You have an easily documented record of White Supremacist, Trump-Loving ICE Cheering on Condecenscion. Put up or shut up, Smart-ass! If you think the regulars on this site are ignorant of basic pattern recognition, I once considered you smart, sorry you have experienced such a sudden collapse.
I’ve been here a century and a half before your ilk, you don’t get to tell me I have no right to be here. I wouldn’t say that to you, but that’s coz I’m not a Racist Essentialist.
TM
Iran’s acquiescence to the MOU only makes sense to me as a position of weakness. Even idiot amateurs like myself could see this coming. Meanwhile, the Palestinians are displaced or dead. Cuba and Venezuela are being punished and extracted to the maximum. Colombia has just elected a Milei-esque buffoon who will commence the usual destruction and despair on behalf of his American masters. There are no reliable partners or allies for these people that can reverse the pressure.
We speculate on US weakness, but the power of the dollar combined with the fragmentation and lack of global solidarity means the old quote “I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half” is ever more true (and globally true).
Without actual solidarity (action taken, at personal risk) the Americans can simply keep conflicts bubbling and probing until logistics and intelligence services overwhelm an isolated victim state.
bruce wilder
Mark Level — you have no right to abuse and harass me. No one made you the judge of me. You are creating enmity where none need exist.
Ian Welsh
OK, no more of this little war. No further negative comments about each other will go thru.
Try and address arguments more than people, please. I know I’m not always perfect on this myself, but if we don’t, the comments section will become useless. No one actually wants to read flame wars and personal feuds.
spud
i predicted months ago on this site, that iran can use the caspian sea basin, to escape the blockade.
bill clinton understood this well, its why a think tank under him, laid out what the caspian sea basin represents to the oligarch led recolonization’s efforts over the world.
looks like russia and china might, just might, understand how sitting on the sidelines, will only speed up their demise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4koOaWLbEg
‘BIGGEST MISTAKE’: Putin, Xi ‘OFFICIALLY ENTER’ Iran War As Trump Blows Up Russia-China Rail Link
The recent escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict has shifted focus from traditional military targets to critical infrastructure, with the United States reportedly striking the Ag-Tekeh Khan railway bridge in Iran’s Golestan Province.
This bridge, a vital link in the China–Turkmenistan–Iran rail corridor, serves as a key trade route supporting China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s logistics, especially after maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The attack underscores how the conflict now threatens global supply chains and strategic partnerships among Iran, China, and Russia, raising the stakes beyond the battlefield.
——————-
What we are witnessing today, is the last gasp of bill Clintons attempt to recolonize the world for capitalism.
Bill Clinton’s free trade policies, particularly through NAFTA, aimed to create economic growth and strengthen ties between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. However, critics argue that these agreements often favored corporations and led to job losses in the U.S., contributing to economic inequality and undermining local economies, which some interpret as a form of economic recolonization.
 Wikipedia epi.org
Bill Clinton’s administration implemented free trade policies, notably through the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), with the intention of fostering economic growth and enhancing trade relations among the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
• Economic Growth: The primary aim was to stimulate economic expansion by reducing trade barriers.
• Strengthening Ties: Clinton sought to solidify partnerships with neighboring countries to create a more integrated North American economy.
Despite the intended benefits, Clinton’s free trade policies faced significant criticism:
• Job Losses: Critics argue that NAFTA and similar agreements led to substantial job losses in the U.S. manufacturing sector, as companies relocated to countries with cheaper labor.
• Economic Inequality: The agreements have been linked to rising economic inequality, as benefits were perceived to favor corporations over workers.
• Local Economy Impact: Many local economies suffered due to the influx of cheaper imports and the outsourcing of jobs, which some view as a form of economic recolonization.
Perspectives on Economic Recolonization
• Corporate Favoritism: Critics contend that these trade agreements prioritized corporate interests, undermining local labor and environmental protections.
• Global Competition: The shift towards a global market created intense competition, often disadvantaging American workers who could not compete with lower wages abroad.
In summary, while Clinton’s free trade initiatives aimed to promote economic growth and international cooperation, they also sparked debates about their long-term effects on American jobs and economic equality, leading some to interpret these policies as a form of economic recolonization.
 Wikipedia epi.org
Bill Clinton’s free trade policies, particularly through NAFTA, are associated with a net loss of 700,000 U.S. jobs due to increased competition and outsourcing. While trade increased significantly, many argue that it contributed to rising income inequality and job displacement in certain sectors.
 epi.org Council on Foreign Relations
NAFTA has been linked to growing economic inequality in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, as it primarily benefited investors and corporations while failing to provide adequate protections for workers, leading to job losses and wage suppression for many. In Mexico, rural farmers were particularly affected, as they struggled to compete with subsidized U.S. agricultural products, exacerbating income disparities.
 epi.org Council on Foreign Relations
Critics argue that free trade agreements can lead to increased corporate influence over government policies, often prioritizing business interests over local economies. Additionally, they may result in job losses and economic displacement in vulnerable sectors, as local industries struggle to compete with cheaper imports.
 bbvacib.com wita.org
Carborundum
Iran can only get about a sixth of their production to the Caspian due to pipeline bottlenecks. Not sure what the capacity of the regional partners would be to absorb that for transshipment.
spud
Carborundum:
Iran’s Oil Transportation to China
Iran has developed a rail corridor to China that facilitates the transportation of various goods, including oil. This corridor is part of a broader strategy to maintain trade despite challenges posed by maritime blockades.
Route: The rail corridor connects Xi’an in China to Tehran, passing through Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
Operational Since: The corridor became fully operational in June 2025.
Transit Time: The rail route significantly reduces delivery times from approximately 30-40 days by sea to about 14-15 days by land.
Oil Transportation Capacity
Attribute Details
Typical Freight Train Capacity 60,000 to 70,000 barrels of oil
Conventional Oil Tanker Capacity Over 600,000 barrels (up to 2 million for VLCCs)
Increased Freight Traffic: The number of freight trains transporting oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to China has tripled since the initiation of the U.S. maritime blockade on April 13, 2026.
Limitations: While rail transport is growing, it cannot fully replace maritime routes for large-scale crude oil exports due to capacity constraints and logistical challenges.
Iran’s rail corridor to China is a strategic alternative for oil transportation, helping to mitigate the impact of maritime blockades. However, it is not primarily designed for large-scale crude oil transport, and traditional shipping methods remain essential for significant export volumes.
Moneycontrol investing.com
Carborundum
The key rate limiting factor is how much rolling tanker stock China and Iran own. It’s not a lot, at least compared to the size of this flow – that, along with the length of the rail link (most Chinese refining capacity is in the east of the country), make this a pretty low capacity, high friction option (for extra fun, they need to cope with different rail gauges, I think at the Iranian frontier). Don’t get me wrong, we know that they are using this link – but it’s not going to solve their problem and it is somewhat vulnerable to disruption.
spud
Carborundum:
the rail link is just another example of how important the caspain region is to russia, china, and iran.
it was never going to be nirvana, its a escape valve that helped to keep some money flowing into a country that was being strangled to death.
i think russia and china, let alone iran, really have never understood what they are up against. the defense of that bridge should have been well understood by all three in advance, it was not.
different clue
Its 3 days later and Belle of the Ranch has a video about Iran’s winning and the USA’s Trump losing so far.
“Let’s talk about Breaking News and Trump’s Iran demand being an admission of failure….”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BicHXKZ9Fk
Trump will be kept in office till his death just like Woodrow Wilson was. This could be good if it can be used to exterminate the Republicanfederate Party from existence.
This would create a vacuum into which the DemParty could delaminate into two or more successor Parties. The ClintoBamacrat Party on the Right could keep calling itself the Democratic Party. In the Center could be a Social Democrat Party. On the Left could be a Democratic Socialist Party.
Plus smaller and fringe parties, to be sure.