Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Protect Yourself from Retaliation After the Riots

In the years since the Ferguson riots, prominent protesters have been systematically killed. Nobody knows who is killing them, and police somehow can’t catch anyone.

The most likely explanation is that they are being killed by cops.

In New York, the man who filmed the choking death of Eric Garner was repeatedly hassled by cops, and is now in jail.

After the Minneapolis riots, the police will take revenge. If they know who you are, they will come for you. If they can find a way to get you legally, they will. If they can’t, they’ll take care of you anyway.

Fortunately, we are in the age of Covid-19.

WEAR A MASK. During the day, wear shades as well. Do not carry your phone, it is a tracking device which the police can use, retroactively, to see exactly where you were at all times. If you must have a phone, use a burner. If you are going to take pictures and video and upload later, make sure you don’t have people’s identifiable faces in them. Do your research into how to upload data safely, in a way you can’t be identified. To begin with, do NOT use a US-based VPN. I suggest a VPN from an unfriendly country: Vietnam, Russia, whatever.

Also, if you are willing to destroy property, make sure to destroy all surveillance cameras first. Every camera you destroy may save multiple people from jail or death.

Insurrections such as this one come to an end. The cops will want revenge, and they will take it.

Protect yourself.


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May 29th US Covid Data

There is a slight worsening in the rate of new cases. Given the fact that Covid-19 takes time to kill, that will not show yet in the data.


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The Minneapolis Riots

You’ve heard about them, I’m sure. A cop put his knee on a black man’s neck and choked him to death. Took his sweet time about it.

On video.

So, this is clearly murder. There isn’t any question about it. People who understand violence are saying that this is a slow blood choke, which is apparently really painful, so it’s also torture. Floyd wasn’t resisting, and even if he had been you don’t deal with a handcuffed man’s resistance by choking him out. (If you were actually scared, you wouldn’t do it slowly, over six minutes, either.)

As usual, the protest started peaceful, but unlike when white men with assault rifles enter the state capitol, the cops escalated things and pretty soon there was violence and rioting. An entire police station has been burned down (reasonable), a Target looted, etc… (Aside: According to a local, that Target was the store used by the corporation to test all new security measures, and was widely hated.)

The cop who killed George Floyd, Derek Chauvin, and the three cops who sat there doing nothing, have been fired, but not arrested or charged for murder. No one but a cop wouldn’t be charged for murder when there’s a tape of the act, no resistance, witnesses, etc.

The riots are a result of the murder, police provocation, and the lack of an arrest. If the police didn’t want riots they could have arrested Chauvin. If they want them to end, they need to arrest Chauvin. It’s that simple.

Well, and stop the constant beatings and murders of blacks by police; that’s the background of this situation.

Trump, never seeing a situation he couldn’t make worse, has threatened to send in the National Guard and shoot looters.

Alright, enough “background.”

Here’s the simple truth: Academic research shows that riots are actually an effective way to protest. They get results pretty often. The riot was justified and the looting is part of what happens in riots. As long as the US has the highest incarceration rate in the world, an oppressed minority kept down with violence and in poverty, and locks up black men at a ferocious rate, riots will happen because people hate being treated like shit.

My sympathies here are with the protesters primarily, though small shop owners who are looted are also victims. This mess can be stopped any time by arresting Chauvin, so the fact that it is happening is a choice. No justice, no peace.

Note: If you’re protesting in Minneapolis, remember to wear a mask so you don’t get killed afterwards like the Ferguson protestors AND don’t carry your goddamn phone. Don’t take pics of each other either, nor wear real distinctive clothes. It’s AFTER that matters. The cops will hunt you down if they can figure out who you are.


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May 28th US Covid Stats

And, we have officially passed 100K deaths in the 50 states.


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May 27th US Covid Data

Our benefactor writes

Lots of headlines that we have reached 100,000 cases. Not if you don’t include Guam, Virgin Islands, and American Samoa. Our announcement will be tomorrow. It’s an awful milestone. I expected the mortality rate to start dropping dramatically, given the increases in testing, but that’s not yet happening.


The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

 

Why Read or Write About the Grand Affairs of Humanity?

I’ve been thinking hard about why I write. It started as an attempt to fix the big things, by explaining what was wrong and how to fix them.

That didn’t work.

Really didn’t work. Almost 100 percent failure.

Unfortunately, much of my writing has continued in this mode: Explain the big wrong things. Didn’t work in the 00’s. Didn’t work in the 10’s. Unlikely to work in the 20s.

I’ve lost a lot of my heart for it. Explaining the world to people makes very little difference to the world, at least when I do it. Predicting trends and events years in advance, same.

So I’m going to change the emphasis of my writing. Oh, there’ll still be grand explainers, but I’m going to write them less with the hope that they’ll change the world, and more so that they help individuals and small groups navigate the world better. That way at least I’m more likely to help people

The big stuff is pretty much locked in now: We’ll see really bad climate change, we’re moving to a two-polar or multi-polar world, surveillance societies will be the norm until collapse, inequality will keep increasing in most countries, etc. Some is more locked in than other stuff; we could, in theory, reverse inequality (and we will, the question is when), but climate change is here to stay, and the international trade order is falling apart.

Back in 2000, when Bush v. Gore happened, my friend Stirling Newberry said, “We’re going to ride this bucket all the way down to hell.”

He was right.

But, as I emphasized yesterday, even in very bad times, some people are doing well, and others are doing better than they might have. Perhaps we’re unlikely to change the big picture, but more of us can change our picture and those of smaller groups.

Knowing how the world works, how governments, large corporations, and billionaires work, and knowing how non-human systems like the environment work, will be useful to those people. You may not be able to change the world (though keep trying if you want, someone will), but you can adapt better or worse to it.

This doesn’t mean I won’t keep writing the bigger pieces. I’ve spent most of my adult life building a world model of which I’m proud. It’s different in some ways from anyone else’s (this doesn’t mean better, though I hope it is better than most), and I want to get it out into the wild. My book “The Construction of Reality” is part of that (and stuck at the editor who is overwhelmed thanks to Covid-19), and there will be other books, long essays, and so on.

Maybe that world view will find an audience in the future or be useful to the future, maybe it won’t, but I want to give it a try.

But on the blog, I’m going to shift the emphasis in articles to not just what’s going to happen but why and try and pull out more of the reasoning so that readers can learn to do the analysis themselves, and can use it plan for and react to the world’s changes over the next few decades.

Things are going to be bad–really bad–for a lot of people. The time is past where most of that can be stopped, and the odds of stopping that which can still be stopped are, in most cases, small, and beyond the reach of individuals.

What is not beyond our reach is helping ourselves, those we care about, and–hopefully–some people beyond that circle.

And it’s in hope of that, and of a future where people and their leaders are willing to do the right things, the good things, that I am going to reorient my writing.

Be well.


The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

May 26th US Covid Stats

Our benefactor notes that the US should hit 100K deaths on Thursday or Friday.


The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

Telling an Adventure Story with Your Life

One of the most popular articles on my site is The Philosophy of Collapse and Decline, whhich about how to live in a civilization where you know bad things are going to happen, and you can’t stop them.

This is a topic I keep thinking about. At one point, I threw myself into the fight to stop evils like climate change, massive increases in inequality, a surveillance society, war, and increasing authoritarianism.

Lost those fights. Pretty much all of them. Not just me, us.

While some things will get better, there’s a lot of bad shit coming down the line. Most of is either unstoppable, or stoppable by having worse things happen. For example, facial recognition may be stopped or very delayed if no Covid-19 vaccine can be created, since people may be wearing masks in public most of the time.

Yeah, didn’t see that coming.

Totalitarian states, likewise, may be stopped by economic collapse caused by bad-case climate change.

Mmmmmm, fun stuff.

I don’t want to tell people not to fight the big fights. The best way to lose big fights is to not fight.

But the fact is, we’ve already lost some of the most important ones, for example, climate change. We ain’t stopping that, it’s happening–anyone who says otherwise is expecting a miracle. Now, I’m willing to give Fate, God, or the Wyrd a chance, but I’m not big on counting on any of them, so yeah, happening.

When people look hard at the crap rolling down civilization’s hill, when they do the work, and have their “Oh SHIT!” moment, they tend to lose said shit. Depression ensues, or all the stages of grief.

Go ahead and do that, because generally you have to go through it.

But what’s at the other end? There’s all of the, “Well, love and sex and cookies still rock,” (Hey, try all three at the same time!), and if that’s your path, go chill in the Philosophy of Collapse and Decline with the Chinese gentlemen (and, today, women) getting drunk on fine wine, composing poems, and admiring beautiful men, women, and mountains (sometimes, yes, all at the same time.)

Another model is the adventure hero(ine) model.

I read a lot of fiction as a kid, heck, I still read a lot of fiction (gestures expansively at the many thousands of books I’ve had to abandon over my life). Now, there are angsty protagonists, having a shit time as they labor through their lives, yes. There are the hopeless schmucks of literary fiction, endlessly examining their navels.

But there are also protags who look at bad shit and think (and feel, more importantly), “This is an interesting challenge! How can I manage this?”

Then they manage it and often have fun doing so.

The world is always going to hell, yup. Just depends where you are, when. Roman empire is collapsing, other places doing great. America is booming in the 50s, Chinese are starving. It’s the 60s, there’s a Rock and Roll invasion, dope, LSD, lots of sex, and, hey, the Vietnam war and lots of Vietnamese dying, some being burned alive.

Someone’s always having a shit life. Someone else is always having a good life.

Now, I’m not suggesting you become an asshole: You don’t have to make someone else’s life miserable for yours to be good. You don’t have become the sort of prick who doesn’t understand that other people are suffering.

But perhaps, just perhaps, because the world is going to hell, it doesn’t mean you have to go to hell. Perhaps you can say, “Well, people lived through World War II and some of them even had a good time, and goddamn, I’m going to be one of those.” Perhaps you can look at the challenges and think, “How do I get around this? Is there a good life for me and mine to be had anyway?”

The first art of winning your fights it to choose your fights, “Jet Li or Woody Allen, hrrrrm?”

You’re one person, there are over seven billion people in the world, and a lot of them are a lot more powerful than you. Events like climate change have momentum that an individual can’t stop (you can still contribute), but there are fights you can win, and there are good lives that will be possible even as the world goes to shit.

This is how adventure heroes act, think, and feel. “Well, that’s terrible, but hey, I have a plan.”

And I’d like to encourage some of you reading this to do that. You can’t save everyone, but you may be able to save yourself and some others, and have fun doing it. Heck, maybe you can even look stylish doing it.

And the mountain, wine, and beautiful men or women will all still exist. (So will the cookies, unless we go full Mad Max, in which case, well, remember, apocalypse in style!)


The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

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