The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

May 28th US Covid Stats

And, we have officially passed 100K deaths in the 50 states.

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May 27th US Covid Data


The Minneapolis Riots


  1. Dr. Chris Martenson has dropped another video, today, dissecting the Lancet ‘study’ that provided a pretext for the WHO “temporarily” suspending randomized clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine. It’s currently on youtube, entitled, “Garbage ‘Science’: Be Wary Of What You’re Being Told”.

    He is not alone. There has already been a letter with, I’ll guess, 40+ coauthors to the authors of the Lancet ‘study’. (In fact, the bulk of this show was going through this letter).

    At 4:40, he shows 5 bullet points with his conclusions. #2 says:

    “The Lancet hydroxychloroquine study is pure garbage. It was either politically derailed or money/pharma conflicts of interest took over. Or both.

    #3 says:

    “It will be retracted. It will bring shame on the involved parties including B&W hospital and the Lancet.”

    At 35:40 he shows 3 instances where Fauci and WHO have embraced the same BIG LIES.

    On the plus side, at 37:28, he shows a quote of the Spanish FDA, essentially disputing the study.

    Also, at 38:10 he starts showing a paper by a Yale Epidemiology professor Dr. Harvey Risch, “Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High-Risk Covid-19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis”.

    So, all is not lost, even if nobody should be holding their breaths for Donald Trump to put on his big boy pants and actually fight for hydroxychloroquine.

  2. bruce wilder

    I have looked in vain for news reporting that would explain the steady rise in new case numbers in Los Angeles where I live. Where are these cases?

    I have seen an explanation for New York’s apocalypse. Cuomo sent Covid-19 patients to nursing homes. Classic.

  3. Hugh

    bruce, less social distancing starting about a week or two ago?

  4. bruce wilder

    @ Hugh

    Going from personal observation, this last weekend marked a significant relaxation of the norms of reduced public activity and social distancing. Legally, a wider variety of retail stores were allowed to open. I saw several “crowds” form (outside — nothing allowed inside) at places in my immediate neighborhood. A late-night pizza shop had a small but tightly packed group sort of partying outside the door. A store selling high-end basketball shoes had a huge line outside of ghetto fashionable types. Quite a few but better distancing at a bakery. A neighbor had a small party on his lawn. That kind of thing.

    LA has a huge homeless population, a known endemic reservoir for diseases of poor hygiene, so a strict stay-at-home policy was never possible. I do not know if that is a factor.

    I think it is hard to find any marker in the data on new cases for any policy intervention. You can tell any counterfactual story, as always. Exponential growth did not continue after lockdown, but exponential growth never continues for long no matter what and even in the short-term does not continue unaided by human behavior. Scientists do not know the value of parameters needed to write a precise counterfactual useful for policy purposes.

    Given the close ties of locals to China and Korea, I thought it strange that LA did not have a huge outbreak very early. Density is very high in some poor parts of the city. Construction never completely stopped. LA is nothing if not vast, too: a continuous mostly “suburban”-density blob that continues over what? 4000+ square miles of 15+ million people from Ventura to Orange County to Palm Springs even. Even at a lowish Rt it could be a grass fire seeking an end to the meadow and not finding one for a long time.

  5. gnokgnoh

    Bruce Wilder. Many of your questions will likely remain forever unanswered, because we never had a common strategy across the country for fighting COVID-19. Data will be wonky, with 50 or more different approaches and definitions for everything, even as seemingly straightforward as what a COVID-19 death is. As with the flu, the virus gets you through respiratory or heart failure or immunity-system responses. If you don’t test a victim who has a heart attack at home, you don’t know. We read story after story of states that are suppressing data by simply not testing sufficiently, before, during, or after the disease. In FL, Santis allegedly had his new health officials (politicos) literally change the data manually, after firing the real one. This is Brian Sims’ argument from the PA House in his rant yesterday. Their governance is illegitimate, so they feel it unnecessary to serve their community.

  6. S Brennan

    Metamars; I need a link, utube is sending me to the CDC website when I use those search words.

    Yes Mr. Orwell; your world has been created, not by the communists, they are long gone sir, no, it’s ungoverned capitalism that has brought forth a Ministry of Truth…

  7. S Brennan


    My previous post is being screen for content violation; got it thanks!

  8. Steve Ruis

    I am curious as to how we are “crushing the curves.” They seem to be descending much slower than those in many other countries. Your data are much more helpful than most others but there isn’t a common comparator for the data being offered.

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