Yes, the Americans and Israelis are inflicting a lot of damage. But that damage does not appear to be degrading the military enough to really matter. It’s mostly hitting civilians. There is zero possibility of stopping Shahed drone production, they are made with fiberglass bodies, there are hundreds if not thousands of facilities which can make them. The US can’t interdict ground supplies from China and Russia, either, meaning that everything Iran needs to build more missiles, it can get.
And if you think China, especially, won’t send Iran everything it needs you’re whistling past the graveyard. China is winning big time from this war: its ships are allowed into the Strait and every single America ally in the East is seeing that the US not only can’t protect its allies, it can’t even protect its own bases.
Every major US base in the Gulf has been hit and as far as I can tell they’re evacuated. US forces in Iraq are being hit hard and can’t evactuate. Hezbollah is slamming the North of Israel hard, and so far they’re doing very well against Israeli ground forces (as expected, Israel ground forces are crap because they’re occupation troops used to beating up people who, at most, have some homemade weapons.)
The Strait is closed. It cannot be opened till Iran allows it. Period. Iran is hitting oil infrastructure across the Gulf and despite propaganda otherwise, no Gulf interceptors cannot stop Iranian missiles enough to matter, and they WILL run out of interceptors before Iran runs out of missiles, if they haven’t already:
The fire has spread to all fuel storage tanks at the Port of Salalah and has been burning for four hours so far. Containing the blaze is expected to take considerable time. https://t.co/HG7ap8o8hm pic.twitter.com/0vRfJ3fJud
— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) March 11, 2026
I see zero prospect of America and Israel winning this war, and if Iran has any sense they won’t allow a ceasefire till they have done enough damage that the US and Israel will be scared to start a new war.
Nukes? Tactical nukes won’t win the war. They’d have to hit Iran with the strategic nukes. All tac-nukes would do is turn the entire world against Israel and the US. Strategic nukes would be a war crime even Europe couldn’t ignore and turn both states into complete pariahs. They might win the war, but they’d lose the peace. And, again, Iran has everything it needs to make a few dirty nukes, and one hit on Israel renders the entire country uninhabitable.
Invasion? Impossible. Iran has a large military and perfect terrain. Any forces sent will be slaughtered. It won’t even be close, it will be a massacre, the worst US loss in generations.
The new leader of Iran is a hard liner and he had most of his family killed by America. The leadership in general knows their lives are on the line. If they don’t win in a way which makes it so Israel and the US aren’t scared to tangle with them again, the assassinations will start up again and there will be a third war. That’s unacceptable and their pain tolerance is FAR higher than America or Israel’s is. Trump is scared about midterm losses. Iran’s leaders’ lives are on the line and the lives of everyone they care about.
This war is a long way from over, but the math I pointed out at the start, that it was a race between Iran’s missile/drone levels and US/Israeli interceptor stocks is happening as I expected: Iran can go longer than the US can.
As Iran I would accept nothing less than all Gulf States and Saudi Arabia kicking out all US bases and the US withdrawing entirely from Iraq. That’s the very least I would tolerate.
In the larger strategic position, this is genuinely the end of the American global Empire. The US had a “one shot” military, to use Will Schryer’s term, and this is the shot. It has proved that the US can’t defend itself or its allies and it will take at least a decade to restock interceptors, if China allows that, which, if they’re smart (and they’re usually smart) they won’t. Remember, the US can’t make ANY advanced weapons without supplies from China.
I’ve lived a long time now and I’ve seen a lot of stupidity from America, but this war is the stupidest thing I’ve seen America do other than making the original decision to send its industrial base to China.
Empires die ugly, but America’s is dying. After this it will be a regional power.
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david lamy
My generation was the first one to be exposed to televisions as a child. Later generations are immersed in all nature of screens. The results are not pretty.
And Trump is still watching a lot of television …
ventzu
Ian – great assessment and fully agree.
This is existential for Iran, for Israel and for the US empire (nbnot the US itself). The US can only drop more bombs. But Iran, provided it has the supplies can continue to reciprocate on Israel. And with rising oil prices, Western economies are not going to be able to keep this up.
Iran’s best strategy is to keep going until the US withdraws fully. But that will also mean the end of Israel, the end of the petrodollar, and the end of US treasuries. So it is likely going to become more vicious still.
@different clue
From the previous post – the best thing I can think of is to inform as many people as possible that reopening Hormuz is bullshit, oil prices will go up, and it will have devastating impact on the economy. This is what I post on LinkedIn to worry the PMC.
The sooner the capital markets panic and collapse, the sooner this will retreat.
ventzu
Sorry meant to write:
The sooner the capital markets panic and collapse, the sooner the US will retreat.
Edmund Johnson
Thank you for your great coverage of this war, keeping us all well ahead of the curve. In all my other echo chambers I see statements like “The war will end soon because Donald Trump needs it to end”. They have no idea.
Mark Pontin
Some future Gibbon will get to write the Fall of the Moron Empire about this.
Operation Barbarossa was a paragon of solid strategic thinking and operational logistics, — aimed at what were might on paper have been arguably achievable goals, which were the seizing of the Baku oilfields, the Ukraine breadbasket regions, and industry in the Donbas — next to this clown show.
edwin
Empires die ugly, but America’s is dying. After this it will be a regional power.
Poor Mexico. So close to the United States, so far from God.
Hope that it becomes two regional powers. Spoken from the soon to be front lines in the great white north, perhaps also to fracture into multiple countries.
bruce wilder
I am sorry I still see no prospect of meaningful “regime change” domestically in the U.S., the “shaking of fists at the sun” in comments notwithstanding. Trump may well lose the midterms very badly, but, if so, it will be to CIA Democrats, who are no sane person’s idea of a lesser evil. As Ian has preached for years, most Americans live in a fantasy of American noble purposes, which fantasy is manipulated to support all kinds of evil. John Mearshimmer, the realist with a conscience, had this clip the other day.
https://substack.com/@medialens/note/c-225621856r=5r5t0s&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Global Financial crisis is the dark sun on the horizon, as the Gulf is the core of the dollar system. Time will tell.
Mark Level
This morning we’re 13 days in, past the 12 days they caved on under Khamenei, and the trajectory of things is clear and obvious. 13 in both Arabic and Hebrew is the numeration of the word “Achad”, Unity. Day 14, 15 and however many more spell defeat for the blundering Empire. The surah for Allah’s Unity begins, “Qol, hua Allahu Achad,” “Listen, He/ Allah is Unity (One/God)”.
Here’s one data point: the DoD told DJT and the other clowns that this would FAIL. General “Raisin'” Caine warned Donny he was stepping in it. But these people are high on their own (artificial) testosterone and imperial arrogance. I mean Trump had such a giant Triumph in Venezuela, right?
And it’s even worse than that– Who actually declared the War? Mercouris among others covered that the real decision was made by Donald’s idiot son-in-law and real-estate buddy Witkoff. Trump openly stated they would make the call, some tiny amount of sense in his broken brain might’ve sensed he’ll need scapegoats as this (inevitably, as you say) goes wrong, very wrong. Congress and the Senate, MIA (these are the real Missing in Action). The Dimmies knew he was going to attack the weekend of the 27-28, so they colluded with their Daddy R’s to make the vote to approve or not (which they would’ve thrown anyway) on Monday the 1st.
And those Dimmie assholes still (for the most part, a few smart ones have broken ranks) spew all the ignorant, genocidal hate against Iranians, though some have been smart enough to break for the exits– https://nypost.com/2026/03/06/us-news/aoc-omar-and-other-squad-reps-among-the-53-house-dems-that-voted-against-reaffirming-iran-as-a-terror-sponsor/
The garbage rag the NY Post of course blames “extreme left” (not) figures like AOC, Ilhan Omar, etc. But I have also seen Richard fucking Blumenthal point out the obvious, that the attack was made with NO strategy or plan beyond killing lots of people, has little or no (as Ian said, the latter) chance of success. And this turd Blumenthal has killed millions of Ukrainians over the last 4+ years, he is nothing like a dove. I’ve seen others that shocked me, as well–Mark Warner of VA, a conserva-Dem, never remotely a lefty or anti-war in the past, called this out.
david lamy makes a very good point. Of course Trump’s war was nothing but Spectacle, starting with the initial killing of 165 schoolgirls aged 7-12, plus 20-some teachers, then a double-tap killing of more, parents and first responders, 40 minutes later. At least the Pentagon can kill as viciously and indiscriminately as our Zio-Masters. Trump takes off the mask. I bet Kamala’s proud that she first promised, “the most lethal military ever” in all of human history, before the Donald echoed the same talking point. They’re trying hard, have already reportedly killed 100,000 in Iran, but in a country of 93 million, that is not hugely significant, at the moment.
How many Israelis are dead? How many injured? Those lives “matter” to the Colonialist Elites, the likes of Mark Carney and Macron, & MSDNC and all the Media Whores; I could be wrong but expect even this early, a higher percentage of Zionists are dead than Iranians. Since the support for this in Israel was at least 85%, likely considerably higher, I cannot shed any tears.
Oman hit. Military victories for Hezbollah (again) in Northern Israel. ventzu quite likely correct, the Markets can only take this for so long. However–
Iran’s demands are going to be quite large. One thing I’ve heard is reparations for all the damages in country, property destroyed. (They’ll never get reparations for dead school girls and civilians, not sure in an Imperial World anyone could or would calculate that.) The US will NEVER pay that, they’ll probably let their Arab family monarchies, UAE, Saudis, Qatar, be utterly destroyed and made uninhabitable before they’d fold on something like that.
One note of concern: Where is Ansar al-Allah? As MIA as Congress. Maybe (?) there’s not much ship traffic en route to Israel with everything happening near the Hormuz Strait? Or maybe somebody got bought off like Delcy Rodriguez and her brother who sacrificed the pawn Nicolas Maduro?
More data points: Empire bombed Iran’s biggest bank, they immediately retaliated and hit Israeli banks, the largest first. And “Pocket” shares they succeeded in a massive Cyberattack against Microsoft and the other Deep State Do Evil War profiteers. Wall St. won’t be the only ones demanding a climb-down?
As Alexander Nix noted, “Success has many fathers, and failure is an orphan.” I predicted Trump’s presidency Dead On Arrival by day 2 of the war, it was patently obvious. I don’t even see the passage of the Save America Act (sic– Save Trump 3rd Term Act) which will likely happen as allowing DHS/ICE to occupy all the polling places and openly end “Democracy” (long dead anyway) as particularly likely.
My prediction: as ventzu says, when the real puppeteers, Wall St., Retailers, Big Oil, etc. demand, Donald will declare a Victory Like Nobody Has Ever Seen Before, and pull out. NO formal admission of defeat, an orphan, and I’d bet the Gulf Allies will be left to have regime-change revolutions or burn to the ground, with all the Princelings hiding out in Switzerland, the French Riviera, etc.
Many Israelis are trying to flee, government restricting it to small planes for now. 1st World lifestyle gone, no more US-paid Universal free healthcare and schooling (for Jews, only torture and death for Arabs, including citizens). These people are pampered, weak and will not be able to live when their economy sinks to the level of, say, Ukraine. Israel may not be dead before the decade is out, but it will certainly be on life support.
I’d wish that the public would wise up and start to oppose Empire. But I’m not naive, not Dr. Pangloss, there is next to no community in US, the same Thugs will rule for the foreseeable future, Dimmy varietal, R’s will take a serious hit til Dimmies fuck it up and do nothing (rinse, repeat).
US will recalibrate. Certainly hope that before Cuba (a very small, but emotionally freighted target) or Mexico get attacked, the Trump Cult goes for Canada. That would be poetic justice given Carney’s current action. Once Canada is taken, Greenland falls into the Empire’s lap.
Having spent significant time in Mexico and Latin America, I can’t see the Empire (under Trump-Miller, at least) wanting to take over and rule lands where most people are brown, so I’m guessing Canada will be most likely consolation prize for future Empire. I hope the rural people there have the toughness and resiliency of the Iranians.
spud
canadians should say goodbye to alberta, the cuban people will pay a terrible price for the empires loss from this war.
Carney should have never bootlicked about being a reliable nato member. he has not learned a thing. appeasement never works.
canada needs to start buying chinese weapons. forget the grippen, sweden went fascist.
KT Chong
Iran possesses “carrier killer” hypersonic missiles, i.e., Fattah-2. They can glide, maneuver, evade, and change trajectory at Mach 15. They are essentially uninterceptable. Yet Iran has not used them to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier. Iran is saving Fattah-2 for “special occasions.”
If Trump decides to declare “Mission Accomplished” and attempts to retreat without sending ground forces into Iran, that is when Iran will sink a U.S. aircraft carrier, kill thousands of Americans, and likely follow up with America’s favorite tactic — a “double-tap” strike to maximize the body count. Iran will make it politically impossible for Trump to walk away.
Why? Here is the calculus:
If Iran allows America to walk away now without suffering a crippling defeat, Iran is finished. Iran will be left with a burning, decapitated country — cities, infrastructure, oil fields, and refineries in ruins — with no chance or hope of rebuilding anytime soon. On the other hand, America will retreat, regroup, replenish its munitions, and reload. In 6 to 12 months, America will attack again. That will be the end of Iran.
Iran cannot allow America to walk away without losing. Iran must force Trump to commit ground troops because that is the only scenario in which America will be defeated.
Iran will not allow America to tuck its tail and run like in the Vietnam War. By forcing American boots onto the ground, Iran ensures a definitive, grinding defeat for America — so that America will never try to attack Iran again.
cc
“As US missiles leave South Korea, the Philippines asks: are we next?
South Korea couldn’t stop the pull-out. Now, Manila must figure out if it is indeed a strategic partner or just another supply depot
The United States has begun pulling missile-defence systems from South Korea to feed its war with Iran, prompting fresh questions in the Philippines about Washington’s military commitments to the Asia-Pacific.
The transfer of Patriot batteries from the Korean peninsula, accompanied by reports that parts of a THAAD anti-missile system were also on the move, did not directly affect the US military presence in the Philippines.
But the episode has forced a question that Manila would rather not have to ask out loud: if America’s assets can leave South Korea, what exactly is anchoring them anywhere?
Analysts say the answer reveals much about the nature of US alliances in Asia and the limits of what treaty partners can actually demand.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung confirmed on Tuesday that Seoul had formally opposed the transfer – and failed to stop it.
“We have expressed opposition to the relocation of some air defence batteries by the US forces here for their own military needs,” he said.”
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3346226/us-missiles-leave-south-korea-philippines-asks-are-we-next
That suggests that the US is desperately running out of Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles and/or launchers to protect Israel and US military bases around Iran.
MoA also makes this assessment:
“With at least four THAAD ballistic missile defense systems in the Middle East disabled, the U.S. is scrambling to find replacements. It is now dismantling THAAD and Patriot system it had stationed in South Korea.”
“Now, suddenly, the U.S. needs those systems for its own purpose and South Korea is left on its own. It is another country that learns the real value, i.e. none, of U.S. promises to protect it.
A Patriot system from South Korea is now being set up in Turkey to defend a U.S. early warning radar station from attacks by Iran. It is unknown yet where the THAAD system will go. But as Iran was able to destroy at least four of that kind it is unlikely to survive any exposure.”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/03/war-on-iran-bank-attacks-mine-fakes-price-manipulation-more-thaad-to-destroy.html
Meanwhile Western mainstream news media keeps the population of Oceania in the dark and only gives us pundits out of Washington DC, former US generals, and other members of the security-military-industrial complex.
mago
So the UN Security Council almost universally condemned Iran for bombing military facilities and infrastructure, including civilian, but nary a peep about Israeli and US instigating the war, nor their bombing of schools, a desalination plant, hospitals, police stations and civilian oil facilities. Let’s not get into the atrocities in Gaza. Talk about blaming the victim.
Andrew Korybko was almost crowing about the motion while casually mentioning the beating that Iran is taking. He’s got his finger on the pulse of many situations, but his style and opinions can be off putting, unless you’re a fan boy.
Anyway, there’s some major ugly going on and it’s quickening muy rápido. Honest reporting is scarce, but it’s available here and a few other places like NC. Thanks Ian, much appreciated.
StewartM
The Cap Weinberger “Be all you can be” military that was built using with overpriced and high-tech hardware, whose aim was to pad profits for the MIC for domestic political purposes (those profits cycle back into rightwing political causes and candidates) and for short-term “show the flag” military operations overseas for the greater good of Exxon-Mobil and United Fruit is showing its weakness.
The “keep the oil flowing and we don’t want any stinkin’ green energy” Reagan economy is likewise showing its imbecility. It’s now showing how incompatible it always was even with the desire to continue US military adventures like this one. The US military is the biggest user of oil in the world.
The Reagan move away from an industrial economy that actually made stuff to a deregulated financialized one based on paper manipulations, fraud, and ponzi schemes, means that the US can’t build hardware anymore for its high-tech military and also is far more at-risks from the financial shocks of war. The fact that the US workforce has no leisure time and crappy expensive healthcare means we have an unhealthy population where even the young people aren’t fit for military service, and the immigrants who would be we’re beating up and putting them in concentration camps.
And the US has always been an Israeli lapdog, even when Israel attacks our ships and shoots our soldier we whine only the mildest of protests. Since 1957 they’ve been an aggressor state, attacking all their neighbors.
All these mutually contradictory facets came to be when we handed over the reins of leadership to those who saw as “rational” decisions that only were “rational” within the scope of their own lives, aka Sterling Newberry’s “the death bet” calculus.
Like & Subscribe
Things are getting so bad in America, we are seriously thinking about moving to South Africa. SA has better schooling and healthcare and it’s much more affordable. If not SA, perhaps Haiti.
https://www.latintimes.com/some-white-south-africans-are-reportedly-leaving-us-return-home-amid-safety-concerns-i-dont-595588
A number of publications are carrying this story, but I chose The Latin Times because it’s perfectly, and ironically, appropriate.
Oakchair
What America is most exceptional at is propaganda. They’re so good at it that they brainwashed the Soviet Elite and convinced them to destroy their own country.
Exhibit B of this is Iran’s 2024 presidential election where the candidate who ran on closer ties to the West and making agreements with America won 55% of the vote.
This helps explain Iran’s behavior before 2026. Iran was not a united country; it was not a country filled with people opposed to the West. It was a country divided and filled with people whose minds were colonized be the West.
Iran had to keep doing negotiations, had to keep pretending peace was possible. Because the first step towards their survival and victory was a war for their social consciousness.
On another note the book Dune parallels much of current events in part because it always did.
The oppressed spiritual Desert people verses the Empire of materialist pdf iles.
The “spice” that all of Humanity needs and which the ability to destroy it is the ability to control the world.
The vital importance of water.
What we need now is a Butlerian jihad.
“Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind.”
Let’s expand it to include
“Thou shalt not make a screen in the likeness of a painting.”
“Thou shalt not make a portable in the likeness of a book.”
“It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for Godly men to admit a rich man upon the Kingdom of Earth.”
cc
“What are the Chinese saying about the war?”
“Open mocking at the sputtering US war machine – “20 years to replace Taliban with Taliban and 8 days to replace Khamenei with Khamenei”””
https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/what-are-the-chinese-saying-about
“Never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake. And Washington is making the mother of all mistakes.”
Further signs that “Operation Epic Fury” may well become known as “Operation Epic Fuckup”.
DanFmTo
One note, do you think Iran bombed the Oman oil facilities? They denied it and I’m inclined to believe Oman would be very far down their target list for something like that, given Oman’s role as the Switzerland of West Asia.
different clue
Statements like ” the war will end soon because Donald Trump needs it to end” somehow remind me of when China invaded/attacked Vietnam when Vietnam was supporting whatever counter-Khmer Rouge forces might be existing in Cambodia.
I dimly remember China blaming Vietnam for China’s need to invade Vietnam with the statement: ” Vietnam has lifted a huge rock and dropped it on its own foot.” It appears that is actually just what Trump has done. And just because he needs it lifted off does not mean anyone will help him lift it off.
Purple Library Guy
The post mentions Hezbollah vs. Israel on the ground. I haven’t heard much of anything about that. Anyone have any decent sources?
different clue
Here is a little story:
” Al Jazeera
Follow
Iran’s president sets terms to end the war: Is an off-ramp in sight? ”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-president-sets-terms-end-154129665.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
That sounds promising to an American Okayness Ordinarian like me. But how many of our rulers are Okayness Ordinarians? The IranGov will have to keep fighting until the brute-force economic situation tortures the oligarchs into ordering the US Gov to accept Iran’s terms. That is when the oligarchs will find out if they are strong enough internally to dictate terms to the KlanMaga Church of Christianazianity and its tens of millions of members. The best approach for the oligarchs to take would be to seem to surrender to the Christianazians long enough for the war to utterly destroy the lives of 250 million Maintreamal Normie Americans so totally that the Mainstreamal Normie majority is ready to accept the physical extermination of millions of Christianazians if that is the price of getting back to some kind of normal. If it is a matter of KlanMaga Christianazians against the entire population-mass of Mainstreamal Normie America, that is a Civil War of Political/Cultural decontamination and disinfection that Mainstreamal Normie America could win . . . If a preponderant majority of the Armed Forces are on Mainstreamal Normie America’s side.
But of course, it is Pezeshkian who is offering these terms. And it is not Pezeshkian’s decision. It is the Supreme Leader’s decision. So if the IranGov can bring the KlanMaga Christianazian Trump Regime to a surrender abject enough to satisfy the Supreme Leader, then a surrender can go ahead.
Otherwise, not. And till then, not.
And of course, if the Christianazians could be “eliminated” . . . or literally eee-LIMinated if necessary , then Mainstreamal Normie America would still have to solve the Oligarch problem. But that is another problem.
Mark Level
spud & I are in agreement, once again. An Albertan 5th column. Oil fields run by Cletuses? What could go wrong?
KT Chong makes a good point, as often. Unsure if the Persians have a saying that “Revenge is a dish best served cold.” I’d bet they have some equivalent.
cc, I saw the same MoA posts. What are all the Imperial Satrapys learning: very simple, the USA Security apparatus has NO fealty to anyone but Israeli Jews. (Not Jews in general, Israelis exclusively.) Some of this is of course the White Supremacy that these people are Northern whites from the Baltic and Polish/Russian areas beyond the Pale. And the other piece is of course the Jewish, Zionist billionaire bullies in the USA, who can buy and own people. Look at who is put in the MICIMATT centers of propaganda, losers like Brett “Bedbug” Stevens who has written dozens (if not hundreds) of editorials for the NYT singing the praises of Jewish genetic superiority, Higher IQs, etc!! (The fascist Tiger Mom some years back married a Jewish man and bragged that her spawn were the true Ubermenschen ‘coz they were from the 2 Elite Genetic Groups, + raised without empathy or kindness to become pure Predators who will rule the world.)
Mago’s right of course, the UN have been US/Zio Imperial Whores for decades. The Biden Admin and Blinky made sure that the UN is seen as the garbage that it is, and would die, after of course using the UN to destroy UNRWA and replace 80 food and relief sites with 1, won by the fake Celeb-run “World Central Kitchen.” But hopefully we all recall that Israel showed their contempt for the Celeb Chef by twice exterminating his employees, including White people. (Which, the first time, occasioned a 1 day frenzy of condemnation and threats of sanctions, etc. by even right-wing figures like Joe Scarborough. Thrown in the Orwellian memory hole the following day.)
So now Donald’s Bored of Piss (in Pepe Escobar’s words) will rule even more nakedly for hoped-for extermination of all Palestinians in the region. Here’s the rub though, all those stupid US-installed Family Dictatorships kicked down $1 billion to Trump personally (NOT to the US government) alongside Mark Carney and some other losers. Canada will last some time (how long uncertain), but all those Family Dictatorships are falling soon, if they attack Iran their desalination plants, oil refineries etc. will be destroyed, their entire countries will be extinct, a few survivors living in Gaza-like poverty who can’t get out.
Stewart M, good point. LAS, I had wondered at your several days exile from this site, glad to see you back. I’m sure the triumph of Russia (& incidentally China) by the Donald’s fecklessness must be among the worst traumas of your life. And I wish you condolences (& no, this isn’t snark, I am sincere.) To show my sincerity, you and one other hater both called me “cowardly” for not wanting to stay in the Empire, but you are showing good sense and 2 wrongs don’t make a right, so I will not condemn you for reaching conclusions similar to my earlier ones.
As to your choices, I’d recommend South Africa over Haiti. I have a Puerto Rican sister-in-law and family in Florida; I once rode out a Gulf of Mexico hurricane on an oil-rig service boat. Beyond increasing hurricanes with Climate Change, Haiti could work if you or your wife already speak French. Adapting to Creole would not be too difficult. But I think South Africa is a better choice because just today the Due Dissidence podcast did a segment on White South Africans brought to the US as favored “refugees” from a “genocide” Trump imagines is killing them. (Actually, only like 57 “genocide” refugees flew in on one plane, with expedited passports and welfare aid when here. It was only people from like 6 families, the “genocide” is imaginary. ) But in fact, as you probably know, Nelson Mandela never took back all the lands stolen by the Boers nor have the nominally “left” governments since. White land ownership is something like 72% being an extremely small minority in the country. (I assume you have the ability to do your research and pick safe areas to live in, as I expect you know that many Cities are highly dangerous for white people.) Best of luck as a (soon-to-be) fellow expat!! I’d encourage you to watch the segment if DD clips it. Their main source was a man who immigrated to the US in 1977, he now recognizes that this country is vicious, toxic and not worth spending time in.
KTC, Due Dissidence did a short segment on the Chinese copying DJT the God-King’s being surrounded by Zionist End Times Lunatics in the Oval Office, laying hands on the God King that Jaybus will grant the US a great victory, and the “filthy Jews” burn eternally in the Lake of Fire. Incoherent!! The Chinese wear costumes, pray around a robot, etc. it’s supposedly a “business technique” for profits, makes more sense than the Trump gibbergabber.
Oh, and the day closed out with Max Blumenthal and Aaron having John Mearsheimer on the Grayzone, a day or two apart from the 20th anniversary of Mearsheimer and Walt’s stellar “The Lobby”, refused by the Atlantic and handed over to the London Review of Books, soon expanded into a book. Max did a great joke, Trump having hands laid on him, when he’s laid hands on so many women.
The actual Left is so much more fun than the miserable Righties. But I’ll close with respect for certain Righties– Tucker Carlson, even Megyn (White Santa) Kelly have turned on Trump, many more will follow. Oh, and more Max– I wondered at the attack on Oman’s oil facility when the Omanis were aiding Iran in negotiations. Max and Aaron among others noting this was likely a Zionist false flag.
Let’s recall what Kissinger said. It is dangerous to be an enemy of the United States but it is fatal to be an ally of the U.S.
Senator-Elect
Agreed on the stupidity of this war, for all concerned, but not on the post’s main argument. I’m more inclined to agree with this analysis: https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/escalation-ladder.
It’s hilarious that Trump wants Iranians to rise up against their government when that is what’s needed in the US itself, where so many are miserable because of their evil overlords. The collective action problem reigns supreme.
Carborundum
If Iran is going to so deter the US and Israel to the point that they won’t tangle with them again, they’ll have to go to economic warfare (i.e., demonstrating that they can and will do large scale damage to shipping and oil infrastructure). They don’t have sufficient combat power to face down US and Israeli forces directly.
Bottom line, I’m not sure how likely that is, given the fragmented nature of the Iranian response. They’ve been hitting a wide range of targets, fairly lightly, which I don’t think is as potent as completely obliterating something significant as a capability demonstration would be.
StewartM
The thought just occurred to me, as some people call this war yet another distraction from the Epstein files:
Maybe there’s another, related, cause? If, as it seems, Epstein was running a honeypot to blackmail US elites, including Trump, and making videos of their misdeeds, maybe this is as simple as Bibi ordering Trump to “do as I say or I release MY files”? Trump couldn’t stop that.
(Of course, Bibi could see that it gets done with the necessary ‘plausible deniability’ so there seems no direct connection. But he could get it done).
And a problem may be that Trump might have done similar, unrelated misdeeds in Russia and Putin has videotape too? And Putin is Iran’s nominal ally.
If so, Trump’s in quite the pickle, no? The only thing that could save his sorry hide is that neither Bibi nor Putin would want to kill the goose that keeps on laying all those golden eggs.
Seattle Resident
@Carborundum, As far as direct combat power vis-a-vis US and Israel, I believe the Iranians with their combination of thousands upon thousands of drones plus the deadlier weapons they’ve haven’t really used yet (plus the missiles, intelligence, and radar they’ve received from China and Russia), as well as close to a million people (including reservists) in the armed services, they are more than ready to tangle with US/Israel in direct combat if need be. Even Iran’s foreign minister said they are waiting and ready for American Troops if they come. I would also add that they are much more willing to take the pain of warfare than US/Israel: Iran had about 500K killed in the Iran/Iraq war and rumbled for about 10 years. Col. Larry Wilkerson said that if the US attempted a draft – 90 percent would not show up and run away to Canada and Mexico. Israel has lost something like 2 million people, particularly the professional class. Maybe if enough homes get blown to bits, they’ll come out of their bomb shelters looking for a fight.
I’m sure Iran would like to win via economic warfare, but is more than ready to rumble on the battlefield if they have to.
As far as the slow roll out of missiles against Israel – conserving till the THAAD batteries run dry and then will start to roll them many more of them, particularly the deadlier ones. And from some of the video I’ve seen recently, they may be doing that now.
Then again, if US/Israel pull the nuke cards, that might be their best shot at stopping Iran militarily. But I suspect Iran has game planned this out and will likely have either a deadly enough missile combo or a dirty bomb capable of devastating Israel. Hard to push for a Greater Israel project if they get a Greater Crater project to rebuild the country out of, assuming they can find people with the will to do so.
different clue
Here is a little movieclip from Better Call Saul featuring ” Mike versus Tuco”. It is only a few minutes long and they are fun-filled viewing-pleasure minutes. Here it is.
“Better Call Saul – Mike vs. Tuco (S2E4) | Movieclips”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_g7D_FSjFk
I offer it because I think it is a little bit metaphorical about the current action between Iran and the US. Let Tuco “represent” the US and let Mike “represent” Iran, especially towards the end where Mike sees a police car in the middle distance. So he decides to respond to Tuco in a way which will get Tuco to react to Mike’s response in a way which will attract the police car’s attention. Let the police car stand for ” global public opinion finally having enough” and maybe even “mainstreamal normie America” reaching its tolerance load limit ( if it has one).
( The big difference is that Iran is punching back as well as making very sure the world onlookers see that it is getting punched, metaphorically speaking).
different clue
Here is a video presenting an American Air Force and-then American AeroSpace Company person discussing some technical events involving the sending of a very particular kind of plane to the Greater Iran Theatre . . .which make him think the TrumpAdmin is seriously planning for submarine nuke-missile launches against Iran.
If Carborundum finds it worth his time and interest to watch-hear it, he may ( or may not) choose to say whether this video points to things as concerning as I, a civilian layman, think they could be.
“Americans See What’s Coming And They’re Getting Prepared”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xth-13y0mjI
( That particular part of the video goes from timepoint 3:31 to timepoint 9:53, with videomaker Jay Reed his own self giving some commentary after that).
Carborundum
Reporting filtering out that the Qataris downed two Iranian Fencers making a run at al-Udeid day before yesterday, something like two minutes before they would have been in position for weapons release. (For reference al-Udeid is where the CAOC is.) Definitely attempting to restore some sense of deterrence.
Analytically, I really don’t think this is Iran running a deliberate dope on a rope strategy. The Iranians have taken much too much damage for this to be their deliberate option. The US and Israel are so far down their target lists that reporting is that they’re hitting Basij checkpoints in Tehran, which is about as tactical as it gets. My view, this is one of those walks like a duck, quacks like a duck situations – they got decapped early and have been on the back foot, having their assets systematically dismantled, ever since. I think their priority is conserving what strategic military capability they can. Look to them conserving the high value stuff and using the low value, high number, easily replacable stuff to do the heavy lifting.
No good sense of why one would deploy E6Bs to the Middle East. I don’t know what they get out of being in theatre if they’re on a nuclear deterrence mission and there is reporting indicting that they have deployed out of CONUS on a few occasions previously. Maybe the thinking is augmenting comms? We’ve certainly seen a lot of hits on SATCOM terminals (to the point that I think SATCOM and radar-warning are the primary targets the Iranians have been going after). My assumption was that the US would be making up the difference with wired connections (these are not austere operating locations and they are well connected into international comms), but maybe there’s some reason they need satellite / broadcast links.
Ian Welsh
Problem is, whatever their target list is, it doesn’t seem to include launchers:
“the number of Iranian missile launchers has held steady after a week of unrelenting airstrikes, according to Israeli and western estimates”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/iran-s-missile-launcher-arsenal-holds-steady-despite-strikes?taid=69b31c74e4ff75000100152d&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
As far as I can tell, the Israelis and US aren’t taking out the military targets they need to take out, whatever the claims.
Carborundum
That was exactly the reporting that led me to believe that the Iranians are focusing on preserving their high end strategic capacity. Israel and US had significant success in the first wave of strikes, but since then the Iranians are not exposing the TELs, particularly for their MRBMs. This is borne out by the much smaller number of ballistic missile launches than seen during the campaign last summer.
The big potential development I see out there is what the Iranians decide to do with some of their anti-ship systems. All of the reporting I’ve seen on ships hit in the Gulf either mentions being struck by generic “projectiles” or SOF limpet mine attacks. They have a significant number of reasonably sophisticated anti-ship missiles that could be deployed much like the Shaheds have been – they don’t require big TELs and the shoot and scoot potential is reasonably high. However, I haven’t seen any reporting that indicates this deployment. Are they still operational? Held in reserve? Open question.
Feral Finster
@StewartM:
Not only are you assuming facts not in evidence, if Russia did have kompromat on Trump, they would have used it a long time ago.
That said, Trump acts like Netanyahu’s prison bride. Not Putin’s.
Feral Finster
@ mago:
“So the UN Security Council almost universally condemned Iran for bombing military facilities and infrastructure, including civilian, but nary a peep about Israeli and US instigating the war, nor their bombing of schools, a desalination plant, hospitals, police stations and civilian oil facilities. Let’s not get into the atrocities in Gaza.”
The Council members crave American carrot and fear American stick, that’s why.
Nothing more.
StewartM
Feral Finster
Oh, Trump goes out of his way to assuage Putin too. There were plenty of opportunities for Trump to commit misdeeds at all those beauty pageants in Russia he attended, and there have been rumors of that already. People have openly wondered if Trump is just enamored of strong men like Putin, but I think that’s barking up the wrong tree. I think Trump’s compromised in many ways.
Poul
Likely we will see Trump pick military options with low chance of success rather than accept defeat. Until defeat is rammed down his troat.
https://x.com/admcollingwood/status/2032533144063320290
“Two days ago, I wrote that the strategic situation in the Iran War would force Trump to increase his risk appetite, and that this would include a limited ground invasion. Now, everybody is talking about exactly that. Here, I explain why, and why it will make things much worse for the US.
As is now well understood, Iran has responded to the US’s and Israel’s counterforce attacks (on military units, civilian and military command and control, and dual civilian-military infrastructure like oil refineries) with countervalue attacks (on US allies in the region and by blocking the Strait of Hormuz). Even Iran’s attacks on US military assets are aimed at enhancing this countervalue strategy: every THAAD taken out makes Iran’s remaining arsenal or missiles and drones more likely to score hits and inflict pain. (Let us give great credit to @policytensor
and @JucheRespecter
, both of whom said before the shooting started that exactly this would happen. Although, to be fair, the CIA and Pentagon apparently did, too, but were ignored.)
Despite the US scoring a more tactical victories, pounding Iran, killing huge swathes of its leadership class, and doing great economic damage, these have not obtained the strategic goal of regime change. Iran, on the other hand, is moving closer to its strategic goal of inflicting so much economic pain that the US stops.
Now the war has started and Iran has the bit between its teeth, Trump cannot pull his P.T. Barnum show to declare victory and move on. As I have written for 12 days now, despite the glib assumptions of many commentators who should know better, if he tries this while Iran is still firing, he loses his presidency and the US suffers a massive strategic defeat.
But what he is doing now isn’t working, either. So what can he do? Negotiate with Iran? Yes, in theory, but Tehran’s minimum asking price would probably look like exactly the strategic defeat he would suffer by unilaterally withdrawing while Iran was still firing (I will write about this in another thread).
Therefore, it is my view that Trump is likely to see escalation as not only the best of a bad set of options, but the only one which holds the chance that he comes out a Winner. This will require him to take riskier gambles than he would like, but even a long shot gamble holds the prospect of a win that accepting defeat doesn’t.
What does escalation mean in this sense?
First, he will shift the bombing from tactical to strategic. That is to say that USAF will move into countervalue territory, too, in the hope of matching the economic pain Iran is inflicting on the world.
The problem here two fold: one of operational feasibility and one of outcome.
On the former, while it was expected that the USAF would push Iran’s A2 overage farther and farther back before destroying it altogether, it seems that the Iranians are also pushing the USAF’s basing farther and farther back. This requires more refuelling, less time over target, and thus a much reduced sortie rate. This is not helping the US gain persistent air supremacy.
The risk, therefore, is that by moving into the strategic bombing sphere, Trump risks more ‘accidents’ like the one that led to a last tanker over Iraq, and even shootdowns of the big, heavy, slow, B52s, which he would need to be able to send directly over Iranian cities for a serious strategic campaign to work.
Furthermore, it is unlikely to work. Strategic bombing has a record no better than any other type of bombing in forcing regime change on its own — i.e. 100% failure. Indeed, it is likely to strengthen Iranian resolve even more.
Regarding the second abovementioned issue, the outcome, such a step would probably make things worse for the US. Iran can respond by counter-escalating its own air attack campaign. Given the US’s GCC nation allies and Israel are far more vulnerable on this front that Iran is, this does not seem like an attractive exchange. Iran would maintain pain tolerance dominance, but the situation would now be much worse for the US, and the global and local economic pain much more acute.
Option two for escalation will be a ground invasion. The third-rate minds in the White House will incorrectly zone in onto the closure Strait of Hormuz as the strategic pivot of this war. Get that open, they’ll tell Trump, and we can pound Iran at leisure, and at the very least smash the country to bits. And, with the inevitability of a river reaching the sea, they will conclude that a ground invasion is the only way to finally do this. After all, the US Navy has already (correctly) made plain that it cannot achieve it through escorts and convoys. So what’s left? Boots on the ground.
The US has forces just for this (which will make it a more tempting option). Its large Special Forces corps (SEALs, Green Berets, et al) can go in first, and secure drop zones and beach heads. They would then be followed by elite units like the US Army Rangers, 82nd Airborne, 101st Airborne, and the US Marine Corps. They would secure key logistics corridors, and wait for the heavy boys to join up. A zone as deep as, say, Shiraz and Zahedan might be taken.
Let us ignore for a second whether this is militarily feasible or politically tolerable (I have serious, serious doubts given Iran’s topology and my limited knowledge of US politics), would it actually solve the strategic problem the US faces?
No!
If the US somehow forced the Strait open (not a certainty), Iran could simply switch to systematically destroying the region’s oil infrastructure to achieve the same end. Then, it wouldn’t matter whether the Strait was open or not: no oil or gas would escape. And it is the flow of oil itself, rather than the specific means of stopping it, that is the strategic pivot of the war.
I think it was @ripplebrain
who pointed out that here we should be grateful that Iran has the opportunity to shut the Strait, because it means that it does not have to do permanent catastrophic damage to Gulf oil infrastructure (and thus the global economy) in order to pursue its strategic aims in an existential war. A US ground invasion that prised open, or looked as though it was about to prise open, the Strait would remove this option and force Iran to do the worse possible thing for the West while it still could.
If you think oil is going crazy now, wait until the Iranians think a ground invasion might be successful in opening the Strait. They would inevitably respond by hammering Saudi, Bahraini, Qatari and Kuwaiti wells and terminals, and the markets would start pricing in many months and even years without significant amounts of Gulf oil. $100 a barrel would feel like a sweet summer of innocent youth compared with the economic storm unleashed.
Here, I have explained why the current option suite available to Trump likely makes escalation, in both the air war, and by opening up a ground component to the war, the most attractive course of action to him. Then, I explained why such escalations would probably not only fail to achieve US strategic victory, but make the situation significantly worse.
The only way the US gets out of this with a win is destroying the Iranian capacity to fire missiles or drones. I concede that this may happen. But we are not close to this point yet. This leaves Trump mired in a quicksand surrounded by mines: stay still and destroy your presidency or try to escalate but probably make things even worse. He’s damned if he stays and damned if he moves.
His fault.”
LIke & Subscribe
Likely we will see Trump pick military options with low chance of success rather than accept defeat. Until defeat is rammed down his troat.
Donald Trump would never accept and/or admit defeat and since he is the “leader” of a cult, the reality that cult has created will never see a defeat as a defeat and instead will see any and all defeats as victories. You live and breath in this fictitious reality and no matter how hard you try to disavow it and pretend you don’t, your efforts are to no avail. THAT reality prevails. Perception is the most powerful elixir ever prepared. No amount of facts can mitigate its potency. This is not a good time to be an intelligent, independent, reflective and introspective critical thinker. Maybe no time has ever been good to be that, but most especially not this time.
different clue
@Like & Subscribe,
The way to kill a perception is by killing every person who holds it.
The way to kill a cult is by killing every member.
Not that I would be so politically incorrect as to suggest we should kill a perception or kill a cult. I would never ever suggest such a mean and impolite thing.
I am only saying that if someone wanted to kill a perception or a cult, someone would have to kill every holder of the perception or member of the cult in order to do it.
different clue
Belle of the Ranch offers a video called:
“Let’s talk about Trump saying experts couldn’t predict what every expert predicted….”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7P4Ftk7kUtk
She zeroes in on plain open-view evidence that the expert battle-planners at DOD predicted this result and pre-prepared for it as best as they could by moving mobile anti-missile and anti-drone defenses to Iran-adjacent countries and by removing what American troops they could from some Iran-adjacent places. She finishes up by offering a few reasons to choose from for why Trump appears not to have known that the IranGov would respond in just this way.
The higher Iran can make oil go and the longer Iran can keep it there, the more unhappy and then disorganized and then de-laminating American society will become . . . IF Iran is able to take a “boil the frog slowly” approach. As long as not one single other CountryGov will help police or force the strait, then Iran can work on boiling it slow for a while. The longer Iran can absorb attacks from the Israel-US side without the strait re-opening, the deeper the oil shortage and the higher the price. If the IranGov thinks that way about it, perhaps it will respond just enough to keep America attacking and attacking for as long as Iran can stand it and keep the strait closed.
Perhaps several to many months of rope-a-dope.
If that is what the IranGov tries to do, I would re-offer my suggestion that American non-supporters of Trump help the process along by buying and wasting as much oil product as they can afford to help keep the price up. I would refine that suggestion to say that any such counter-Trumpers should separate their oil use into two categories:
bare minimum survival and political pain-causing through price-torturing. If gas for drivers were to reach $10.00 a gallon and stay there, counter-Trumpers would want to already know how to survive in that situation. At 10 bucks a gallon, counter Trumpers would have no more need to try deepening the shortage to raise the price, if the shortage and the price really truly reaches that level and stays there a good long while.
The hope is that tens of millions of Magas in the field decide to blame the Trumpers and the war supporters for their pain instead of blaming the war opponents and the counter-Trumpers. But that is a desperate hope and a gamble. One never knows how tens of millions of magaTrumpers would respond and against whom.
Oil-wasters and raise-the-pricers should be as silent and stealthy as they can be about what they are doing if that is what they decide to do. At least they should not talk about it in public.