Use comments to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.
Author: Ian Welsh Page 149 of 437
So, the temperatures in the Pacific Northwest probably cooked around a billion sea animals.
Dead.
A billion.
The town of Lytton, which reached Canada’s hottest ever temperature, later burned down: 90 percent of the buildings gone. (Back in the 80s, I drove through Lytton a few times, can’t say I know it, but I spent a lot of time in the country around it.)
We’ve already hit high enough temperatures to kill some animals outright.
Humans can get there as well: It’s known as the wet bulb temperature.
The wet-bulb temperature (WBT) is the temperature read by a thermometer covered in water-soaked cloth (wet-bulb thermometer) over which air is passed.
This is to see what temperature it is with evaporation. If the wet bulb temperature hits 35 celcius, humans can’t lose heat, even if they drink water, and will die.
This corresponds to 95 percent humidity, and 88 F (31.1 Celcius.) The lower the humidity, the more heat you can take before dying, a.k.a., “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.”
These are ideals, though, a lot of people die at lower wet-bulb temperatures, because they aren’t perfectly healthy or the heat just keeps going and going.
A researcher noted that just how bad high wet-bulb is:
“Even if they’re in perfect health, even if they’re sitting in the shade, even if they’re wearing clothes that make it easy in principle to sweat, even if they have an endless supply of water,” Horton said. “If there’s enough moisture in the air, it’s thermodynamically impossible to prevent the body from overheating.”
Coming to somewhere near you?
Most of these wet bulb conditions were concentrated in South Asia, the coastal Middle East, and southwest North America… A growing number of other regions are nearing this point: The Southeast US, the Gulf of Mexico and Northern Australia, all denoted by green on the map, are seeing higher daily maximum wet bulb temperatures.
Obviously air conditioning can protect you, but what if your AC goes out, or worse, there’s a brown or black out? A few hours later, you’re dead. Willing to bet your life on over-stressed power grids?
And, while a little misleading (they aren’t here in any great numbers, yet…), this is normal:
Originally, conditions like this weren’t expected until the mid 21st century, according to climate models. But they are actually already here.
Fun stuff, but what makes it even more difficult is climate instability; after all, much of the Pacific Northwest, especially along the coast, was known for its mild temperatures. (I grew up there, and can attest.)
The core thing to understand is less about heat specifically, and more that climate will keep getting more dangerous, and that you can’t count on government or corporations to keep you safe. You shouldn’t, if you can avoid it, put your life at risk by assuming “the power grid won’t go out when I need it most” or “there’ll always be a continuous supply of food.”
Expect that the highly-taut, over-efficient, no-slack, and unmaintained systems that run our society. optimized for maximum profit and not for resilience, will fail under shocks they were never designed to withstand — especially as our elites now expect such shocks, like Covid, to make them even richer and more powerful.
You aren’t precisely on your own, but don’t count on the normal of the past few decades to predict the future — except the normal of “no one with any power actually cares if you live or die or suffer, if they can make some money from your suffering.”
(My writing helps pay my rent and buys me food. So please consider subscribing or donating if you like my writing.)
There is a variant of Covid, called Lambda, which started in Peru in August, and is now showing up in multiple countries, including the UK and Canada. How dangerous it is is uncertain: It has some changes that might make it better able to avoid antibodies, but studies so far are inconclusive.
The spread of new variants beyond their initial country, however, is something which shouldn’t happen. Very few countries are quarantining properly. Where I live in Canada, quarantine is essentially voluntary: There’s a fine if you don’t, and people who can afford to travel can often afford the fine, plus not everyone gets fined.
This is ridiculous; quarantine should be mandatory, and if you break it, you get slammed back in with a guard on your door, and afterwards you get a trial and are thrown in prison. As a friend noted, if you aim a gun at someone and pull the trigger, but it turns out the gun wasn’t loaded, you still committed a crime even if you didn’t know it was loaded or not.
When the virus and virus variants spread, they have more chances to mutate further. It may be that Lambda’s changes in spike protein aren’t enough to defeat the mRNA vaccines yet, but the next variation off Lambda’s base might be.
Delta, likewise, should never have spread out of its country of origin.
We also do quarantine badly. Hotel quarantine is ridiculous in most hotels, because Covid is airborne and most hotels spread air between rooms.
This isn’t a difficult problem, however. Build a bunch of small huts in a field (you can even stack them), each with its own ventilation, and put people in there. Pre-fab companies and militaries are great for this. Build a fence around it and bring people food and have public health nurses visit every day. This is relatively cheap and keeps people from breathing each other’s germs, if set up with a bit of care. Have a few military police guard the place, that will keep most people from running.
We have a pandemic turning into a plague (in the words of Umair Haque) because we have refused to take this seriously, all the way down the line. I know someone in Canada who got Covid, was told to quarantine, and no one else in the shared house in which they lived was contacted or told to quarantine. This is kindergarten level incompetence — truly shocking.
None of this was necessary. If we had properly shut down and not reopened too early, if we had actually tracked and traced, and had supported every country in the world to do this, while spreading vaccine knowledge around (all the garbage about how long it would have taken looks stupider and stupid, now that we’re up 16 months or so), we’d probably have it down to a few pockets now, at most, and would be back to our “normal” lives.
Instead, we have a disease that looks likely to be chronic and to keep mutating, which vaccine makers like Pfizer and Moderna will offer expensive booster shots to for years or decades.
Back at the start of the pandemic, Moderna was worth 80 billion; it could and should have been eminent domained.
And, as I pointed out at the start of the pandemic, all loans and mortgages should have been put in abeyance, including interest growth, and everyone who wasn’t essential should have been paid to stay home. Rich companies should have subsidized poor countries to do the same.
Blah, blah, blah. We’ve fucked up everything — really simple things that are part of how to handle a disease, things which were understood 500 years ago. Well, fucked up if you aren’t in the top .1 percent and have made out like bandits.
New Covid variants are happening and spreading because, overall, and especially in the West, our leaders are acting to make them spread.
If someone you care about died in anything other than the first wave (and even that is questionable), then your leaders are almost certainly responsible for that death. They refused to take the necessary actions to stop it. There are some exceptions (outbreaks which were stomped on quickly), but basically, almost all dead people after the first wave are the result of political malfeasance, rich people’s greed, and sheer bloody incompetence.
Rich people and politicians kill and impoverish you for money and pleasure. Covid is just a particularly stark reminder.
(Virtually everyone dying due to climate change heat waves and fires is also a victim of politicians and rich people. More on that later.)
(My writing helps pay my rent and buys me food. So please consider subscribing or donating if you like my writing.)
We live in a very, very rich society.
Oh, many people are poor, and real poverty, whether in the “Global South” or first-world backwaters, but our society throws off vast wealth. We could, essentially trivially, feed, house, and clothe everyone and give them a decent life. We have that sort of surplus, and far, far more.
In healthy societies, or societies where elites are scared of outside forces (whether human or natural), the emphasis is on growing the pie, on making the society stronger and richer so that it can survive the forces of which the elites and the population (perhaps) are wary. Unproductive use of resources is frowned on, something you can find even in English common law, where if land or property wasn’t being used, after a time it could be taken by someone who would use it productively.
In fantastically wealthy ages, where elites are sure they are secure from all enemies, they concentrate on fighting over the wealth, or, the pie.
The Gilded Age is a good example. The Americans and Brits of the early to mid 1800s were concerned with growing the pie; they didn’t feel invincible or untouchable. But after Britain had secured its second Empire, and painted more of the map than any other nation in history, and after the US had its civil war, broke the natives, and crushed the Spanish and Mexicans, the US and Britain felt they had it made. There were no real threats left.
So, the countries turned inside. They concentrated on taking from others, on amassing wealth. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil empire was created by by buying out (often at terrible prices) the existing oil industry. It wasn’t creation of something new; it was consolidation in one man’s hands, of what was already there, so that he could reap the benefits.
England’s middle class in 1850 was the envy of the world. By World War I, the average Englishman had been so impoverished that huge swathes of potential soldiers had to be turned away from service in the armed forces. The rich imtiserated the middle class, crushed the farmers as best they could, and fought amongst each other to see who would rule the roost. (In this, they were less collegial than our rich are — far more willing to throw former members of the elite out entirely.)
To put it simply, there was far more money and power to be gained by grabbing a bigger slice of the pie than by growing it.
In the US, this wasn’t fatal; there was a lot of stolen land, and there was still plenty of room for elites to grow new things, even if it wasn’t the emphasis.
In Britain, it led to a fatal decline which is still ongoing; we can see now that Britain probably won’t even stay the “United Kingdom” —- odds are good Scotland will leave, and to add insult to injury, they’ll lose Northern Ireland as well. It is even possible, in the next 40 years or so, that Wales might leave.
From the behemoth astride the world, to a pathetic country that can’t even keep its heartland together.
For our purposes, however, the point is simpler: If you want to rule over other people, you must, in the words of Lois McMaster Bujold, rule their imagination. The greatest of men and women could lose everything tomorrow if their subjects simply stopped believing in their subjugation — and who has how much is entirely a matter of convincing other people to give it to you and let you keep it. Even when it’s a matter of force, you must convince the enforcing class to do what you say and to point the guns and use the prisons on the “right’ people.
It is true that growing the pie requires a fair bit of ruling over other people’s imaginations, but real increases in societal wealth require actually dealing with the world as it is; conquering people who resist, inventing and building steam engines, figuring out how to grow more food on the same land, and so on.
Just getting people to give you more of what already exists, what was created by other people and is produced by a system created by humans of the past, however, is pure imagination work. If people believe it is true, it is. You’re only dealing with human psychology and mass psychology.
Of course, a real world still exists; sometimes its people who don’t buy into your story. This is why China and the US are going to cold war and maybe real war, because neither is willing to live in the world created by the others fictions and ideals.
Then there is nature. It doesn’t matter if you believe that carbon and methane heat up the planet. They do and they will. It doesn’t matter what you think about Covid, if you un-mask and don’t quarantine people who have it, or came in contact with those who do, and if you don’t contact trace, and so on and so forth, then it will act like any other pandemic disease and keep mutating and spreading.
You can’t just manipulate other people’s beliefs about Covid and expect it to go away.
And so, people who have spent their entire lives doing nothing but manipulating other people’s beliefs are incapable of dealing with Covid or climate change. Covid doesn’t “listen to them.” Covid doesn’t care what they say.
Same with climate change. The forest will burn, regardless of what you say to the trees or to the weather.
Our elites, trained only to manipulate other people, are incapable of dealing with real-world events that can’t be controlled simply by controlling other people’s beliefs.
And so we will burn, and cough, and Covid will become endemic as the world slides towards collapse.
(My writing helps pay my rent and buys me food. So please consider subscribing or donating if you like my writing.)
Since this blog started, I’ve used Feedburner to send out emails. Google bought it and recently shut it down. I’ve transferred over to a different service (follow.it) and, in the process, I messed up and entered the comments feed as well, so those of you e-mail subscribe will have received an email with recent comments.
SORRY!
It should be all fixed now, no more comments (you’re welcome to come to the blog and read them — some comments are great, but as I moderate very lightly, some are very unpleasant -— you have been warned!) and emails should go out once a day, if there’s a new post, about 8pm EST.
It’s a muted Canada day this year because of the discovery of dead children at residential schools for natives.
The residential schools were boarding schools for native children. The children were taken from their parents by force (some parents were killed for resisting). Once there, they were treated badly, not allowed to speak their native language, and inculcated in Christianity, which is why they were run by the Catholic Church.
The reasoning was that the only way to “civilize” the natives was to make them Christians, and to remove them from their culture.
So far, over a thousand children have been found in unmarked graves this year. More will be found. The BBC estimates 2,000 dead, but I’m betting it is more.
The children at these schools were abused, they were not treated with love, and when they returned to the reservations, many of them acted as adults who were abused children not treated with love; reservations have huge amounts of alcoholism, drug use, and abuse. This trauma, combined with the other generational trauma natives endured, plus the systematic mistreatment of natives on reservations, has lead to reservations being third-world enclaves in a first-world nation, and anti-native racism is rampant in Canada — especially in rural areas.
This has lead to a lot of canceling, some of it unquestionably justified, some of it less so.
The Atlantic Magazine wrote a good defense of John A. MacDonald (even if it was written by Frum), Canada’s first Prime Minister, for example: He supported residential schools, but in his time they were voluntary and his policies, for the time, were relatively enlightened towards the natives — including some attempts to feed them during the famine caused by the US genocide of the bison herds.
The key paragraph is:
This is not a “reckoning with history.” It’s a refusal to reckon with the actual possibilities open to the people of the past. This is not “moral responsibility.” It’s a flight from responsibility into rituals of self-purification through denunciation and destruction. It is easier to perform outrage than to improve outcomes in education, addiction, and economic development.
The real problem here is that modern day natives live in slums and are treated terribly. The simple fact of the matter is that a real attempt was made to genocide their cultures (that’s what compulsory residential schools were part of) and that putting them in reservations and treating even the adults like children (that was pretty much their legal status), then failing to care for them, makes Canada culpable for the state they are in.
There is no getting around this easily. What was done cannot be undone, but Canada could do what it can to make it right, and the simplest way to start would be with money. There are a million “status” Indians in Canada, and just giving them a boatload of cash is something Canada can afford to do, and should do. (We spend about $200 billion on various business subsidies, including for oil and gas; we can find the money.)
On their side, the natives need to understand that countries rarely self-dismember, and that turnaround (taking away the rights of non-natives) is a no-go, and would be stupid and self-defeating. Canada would have to give natives a fair bit of land, but that land would not be fully sovereign; they would not be separate countries. Something like provincial powers or even provincial status would be appropriate, but it must be done in a way that respects democratic and civil rights. If Indians want settlers off their returned land (settlers who have sometimes been there for over a 100 years), those people will need to be compensated, and it’s reasonable for the Canadian government to bear those costs.
The price tag for all of this will be in the hundreds of billions. Canada can afford it, and it is the right thing to do, but it must also come with genuine reconciliation over time.
In the meantime, Canada is right to be ashamed, and the Pope needs to get off his ass and apologize as well — because the Catholic Church are who perpetrated the actual administration and the actual, day-to-day abuse. (This reminds me of the dead bodies found buried secretly near Irish Catholic-run orphanages.)
Like every other state in the Americas, Canada is a settler state. We were built on conquest and genocide. I have little patience for constant self-whipping over the fact; it is what is, and most people still alive today had nothing to do with it.
But we are responsible for our behaviour today, which is still very bad, and we are responsible for making right what can be made right — things that were done by those who came before us, those who created and maintained this country on land stolen from the natives, while they continued to hurt those natives, pretending instead that they were caring for them.
(My writing helps pay my rent and buys me food. So please consider subscribing or donating if you like my writing.)
So, Chris Avellone, for those who don’t know, is (or was) a famous game writer. He wrote much of Planescape:Torment, considered one of the best role-playing games of all time. It often sits at #1 on “best of” lists.
Last Year, Avellone was accused of inappropriate behaviour with a number of women. Game companies he’d been working with dropped him like he was greased shit; he became unemployable.
Now, I don’t know what Avellone did, or didn’t do, but what I do know is that if being cancelled means you’ll never have a good job ever again, you’ve got two choices: You can grovel (which rarely seems to work), or you can fight.
Well, or you can slink away, I guess. If you never need to work again, that’s an okay option, I suppose. Otherwise, your future is minimum wage McJobs.
Avellone has chosen to fight. I’m not sure it’s the smartest way (libel lawsuits are hell), but it’s the way he’s chosen.
Big names like C.K. Louis, the comedian, often bounce back fairly easily.
But the effects on mid- and low-level people are often catastrophic. Every time their name is entered into a search engine for the rest of their lives, what’ll come up is their alleged offense. Anyone who hires them knows that they are opening themselves up to a PR hit, so they don’t.
I’m not super-opposed to cancelling. For a long time, too many mid- and high-level celebrities lived in bubbles. The grapevine for insiders always knew about their issues, but outsiders were kept ignorant, and in the worst cases, young women were fed to them. This is certainly the case for Bill Cosby.
Cosby went to jail, eventually, and without the pile-on, that might never have happened.
But inappropriate behaviour and criminal behaviour are two different things, and the penalty of “will never have a decent job ever again” seems a bit high. Even when it doesn’t hit quite that level, as in the case of Alexis Kennedy, the hit can be harsh; his company went from expanding and illustrious to a small shop that will do one artisan game at a time. His little company had sponsored and helped multiple even smaller companies; all of them, save one, felt they had to give up the sponsorship, thus losing important help and money.
I feel a bit bad about Kennedy, because for about the first week and a half I shrugged and assumed it was true enough.
I looked into after a bit, because I admired Kennedy’s writing. The initial accusation was of being a sexual predator, but nothing that came out over the next couple weeks supported that. He had given his girlfriend a job at his firm (she begged him to), then when they broke up, he stopped praising her work and started criticizing it harshly. By all accounts, he was something of an asshole boss, though, and it’s equally possible that his praise was fake as it is that his criticism was motivated by the breakup.
He met his next girlfriend at work and, apparently, they flirted outrageously at a work event (she’s happy, they’re still together). He also apparently sat too close to some women for their comfort. There were some other offenses, mostly amounting to “an asshole boss who doesn’t follow his own procedures,” but nowhere was there any indication he was a sexual predator. No accusations of rape; not even an accusation of pressuring women for sex. He certainly seems to have weaseled on some things, but a lot of it came down to “he says/someone else says” about accusations that were almost all, at worst, “harsh language” and “two inappropriate relationships with juniors that they admit were consensual, and the unhappy one begged him for the job.”
But he still got cancelled.
I suppose this post would end better if I had a rousing finale about how I hate cancel culture or how it’s overall good, but really it’s just mob behaviour, little different from the social dynamics that used to be far more common in villages and institutions and rare outside of them. Sometimes the target “deserves” it, sometimes they don’t, and rather often, the person is disagreeable in some way. But the punishment is either disproportionate or they are accused of something they didn’t do because what they did do is shitty, but not something people feel they can hurt them for.
So I guess my non-rousing finale is, “Don’t believe it until you’ve done your own research.” Don’t become part of the mob, letting your emotions get away with you or shrug and assume something is probably true. It may be, it may not be, but you don’t actually know.
(Avellone’s Personal Post on the accusations.)
(My writing helps pay my rent and buys me food. So please consider subscribing or donating if you like my writing.)