In my Nov. 7 analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian War I missed two serious developments on the line of contact that I simply didn’t have the bandwidth to notice. After paying closer attention I came away with a big picture question: has Russia pierced the line of contact in three places or are my sources exaggerating? For the last two weeks there has been talk and rumors, some of which I have been guilty of passing along, that Russia achieved such a goal. But where?
Most observers are in rough agreement that the following five Kupyansk, Siversk, Lyman, Huliapole, and Constantinovka are under dire threat. Pokrovsk and Myrnograd are done. Finis.
But these three are the standouts.
The first, and most obvious, is in the immediate environs of Pokrovsk. As I noted November 7, west of Pokrovsk—is all open steppe land with little to no defensive terrain—all the way to Pavlograd. Will the Russians move forward? Doubtful. I stand by what I wrote two weeks ago: “Russia will consolidate its gains in and around Pokrovsk, after the Ukrainian soldiers in the pocket are killed or surrender. For some time after I foresee Russia utilization of tactical defense within an offensive framework.” But the Russians, when they are ready, will move across the steppe towards Pavlograd, en masse.
The second and most unlikely involves troops now taking Lyman, who afterwards will move south, in tandem with troops north of Pokrovsk, to encircle both Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two large towns serving as the final obstacles on the road to Poltava. This encirclement, if attempted, would make the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd cauldron look likes child’s play. It is doable, however, and an encirclement of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk might be just the right bait for the last of the Ukraines reserves; with only enough reserves to fight in one place, this is where they’d stand. Russia can afford to tease the Ukraine as it retains the strategic initiative. It can feint, sucker punch and attack pretty much with impunity at this point in the war. Yes, Ukrainian forces can mount local counter-offensives, but the days of counter-offensives across the entire line of contact are long past.
The third—which is the most serious for the Ukraine—is in the south, where an imminent encirclement of Hulyiapole, will wrap up the flank of Ukrainian forces in the south elimanating all resistance to Zaporozhye. This operations seems well on its way to success. The Ukrainians have no answer to the Russians here.
As I mentioned above there are other places the Russians are pressuring: Kupyansk, Siversk and Constantinovka. In all three places Ukrainian defenses crumble, Russia hammers supply lines, drops FAB-500 on mustering points, lobs Iskanders on ammo dumps and bridges, and hurls thermobaric bombs at makeshift barracks and more. The Russians are doing this as near to the line of contact as possible. Everything to a purpose: shattering the will of the Ukrainian soldier to continue the fight.
Meanwhile, Russia’s strategic bombing and drone campaign against the whole of the nation escalates sans mercy.
Of the three points I mentioned above, I see the Russians grinding away deliberately and slowly; advancing at speeds of their choice around the Pokrovsk environs, and in and around Lyman. In other words, more attrition. Maybe a feint at encirclement will draw in the last of the Ukraine’s strategic reserves, which would then be attrited away as the Russians have been doing so since 2023.
Poor US TV generals, still have no big flashy red arrows or armored movements to get their war porn on.
Only in the south might we see a real breakout; a breakout that posisbly rolls up of the entire Ukrainian flank to Zaporozhye. The Russians might be at the gates in two weeks. Maybe less, maybe more. Maybe we’ll see an operational pause and then a deliberate resumption of the churn.
One fact is beyond obvious at this point: the Ukraine has lost. The question now is: how much more will they lose.
KT Chong
After the Ukraine war, there will be many angry, disillusioned Ukrainian veterans — trained by Western intelligence agencies (CIA, MI6, etc.) and special-operations programs — who feel abandoned and betrayed by the West. Ukraine will end up like Afghanistan after the war, where the Mujahideen freedom fighters evolved into Al-Qaeda terrorists.
My guess: battle-hardened Ukrainian nationalist and neo-Nazi veterans (like Azov) will form their own criminal networks, becoming crime lords, gangsters and hired guns, and spreading havoc and instability across Europe.
And frankly, it’ll be the poetic karma Europe deserves. Europe wanted to “fight Russia to the last Ukrainian,” and if those same Ukrainians eventually turn their anger back on Europe, that’s exactly the blowback Europeans brought on themselves.
Sean Paul Kelley
@KT Chong: I’m slowly coming over to the view conveyed in this essay by Alexander Mercouris. If Russian attrition is as complete as it possibly looks to be and Ukrainian public opinion get lowers or even stays where it is, I do not think there will be any kind of insurgency, or ‘they stabbed us in the back’ type campaign in the rump Ukraine or in Western Europe. Here is the link: https://substack.com/home/post/p-178712551 Now, I could be wrong, have often be wrong, but I damned sure hope I am not wrong about this.
KT Chong
Source: https://substack.com/home/post/p-178712551
“As the Russian army advances west many of those with nationalist and anti Russian views who still remain, including in Kiev, will probably flee to Europe rather than remain. Whilst this is deplorable, should it happen it will reduce the pool of people who might support an insurgency still further.”
And what do you think those Ukrainians, after they flee to Europe, will do?
Sean Paul Kelley
@KT Chong: as I said before: I could be wrong, have often be wrong, but I damned sure hope I am not wrong about this. Other than that, I got diddly. If the Banderists–many of whom are Uniate Catholics–make trouble in Europe, Europe is in for a world of hurt and with the US slowly but surely leaving Europe, they’ll be stuck solving the problem themselves. Pray to which ever god(s) you believe in that doesn’t happen.
Purple Library Guy
Just considered a weird thing: Ukraine has been financed by the US and Europe to the tune of really big numbers . . . but a lot of it is loans. Any Ukrainian who, after the war is over, chooses to live in the bits that Russia conquered, is not in the part of Ukraine that is on the hook to pay back all that money.
Feral Finster
Ukraine will need a big shot in the arm, which is the impetus behind the “Trump Peace Plan”.
Of course, the europeans and Ukraine need the war to continue, so they are busy watering it down to make sure Russia does not accept. That french and british troops will be sent to Ukraine if peace breaks out is further assurance that there will be no deal.
Then the europeans and Zelenskii will whine to Trump that Russia doesn’t want peace. Trump will have no choice other than to escalate, unless he wants to be the one who “lost Ukraine”. Trump may be a moron, but surely even he knows that Biden’s popularity dropped like a stone during the evacuation from Kabul and never recovered.
It’s an obvious trap, and weak, stupid, easily manipulated Trump is stumbling right into it.
Mark Level
The denial and the rage by the Euro-Slugs that their “Precious” (as Smeagle put it) War against Russia is inevitably winding down as it was always would, just a matter of time, is making the worst Euro-Slug hated leaders of Jospep Borrell’s little Imperialist “Garden” (built on slavery and rapine, across Africa, Asia, the Caribbean and elsewhere) go mad with suicidal rage. Note I say suicidal not homicidal, because the wackos in charge, all hated by their own publics by now, will destroy (if they can and aren’t stopped) their own publics and future . . .
Starmer, who has something like 7% support from his public (it may be lower by now) is talking about forced conscription of youth, to put Imperial “Boots on the Ground”, also a goal of Little Napoleon Macron who announces they are sending troops toward Odessa and into an (imaginary) “demilitarized zone” that he fantasizes about in the small amount of Donbass not yet fully taken. Merz (also widely despised) and the Nazi-adjacent Fraulein Van der Lyin’ insist on stealing $10 billion Euros in Russian Frozen Assets to prop up Zelensky’s golden toilets and cocaine binges for a few more months (they think years.) There are some saner heads though, and Euro-Clear and the Belgians, who would be mainly on the hook for the billions stolen, are trying to apply a brake.
The panoply of Trump-Symp “Plans” that are thrown out like playing cards daily, 28 points, then 19 points, then who knows how many. But they have no credibility and will not be accepted by Putin or the Russians (who are not suicidal) and will go nowhere. It is little Marco Rubio who has betrayed DJT’s trust and his basic instinct not to flush billions more of ‘Murican $$$ down the Slavic crapper. It was likely Rubio or one of his toadies who released confidential Witkoff phone calls with Lavrov (or whomever) to force a war. Not a fan of JD Vance any more than of Rubio, but he at least has a grip on reality which the latter lacks. Mercouris just in the last 48 hours called on those stealing state secrets to be prosecuted, but the NeoCons can always protect their own.
There are lots of brain-dead little Tallifers out there, in the Dimmie Party (where there is not a single elected “representative” who will speak up to stop this madness, while their own constituents largely do not support it, not a single one with the integrity of a Marjorie Taylor Green) & the Elite Media and War Profiteers imagine this huge grift can go on for many more years. It can’t, the Euro-Imperial Slugs do not have the weapons or the troops to gain a “Victory” in Ukraine– short of Nuclear exchanges across Eurasia.
Would the likes of Von der Lyin’ and Merz go there? I’d like to hope not, but I frankly don’t know. “Whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad,” and that describes these Monsters to a T.
The cascading Collapse of Ukraine, similar to the collapse of German forces in WW I, and the Azov Leadership are emulating the 3rd Reich in their lunatic Burn It All Down antics as they start to realize the war is lost. KT Chong I think is mostly right in his claims, though obviously the Creme de la Creme like Zelensky et al will settle into their mansions bought with stolen money and hide out from any future justice. Many of the Azov biggies have also made major bank, but I guess we’ll see.
Nazi ideology is very hard to kill, evidently. Something I saw in a 2024 Harper’s issue recently is that 50% of ‘Murican youth and young men age 13-39 don’t believe the original Holocaust (ok, the 4th or more, Armenia was prior, plus the Congo and many other places) occurred. Angry Incels, or—?
The biggest irony, which many have pointed out prior to me– those who claim to “love” Ukraine (& tacitly the Banderist ideology) are the ones who fed them into the wood-chipper. They will never see that, they are too deranged with Russophobic rage, racism and hate. Tallifer (who will likely weigh in soon) and the other keyboard commandos via projection have destroyed those they most claim to “love.” Sickening and sad.
Mark Level
Oh, listening to George Galloway’s “MOATS” now, and he added another tidbit. His claim is that half of the prostitutes in Euro-bordellos now are Ukrainian women (& Starmer had his own little “friendships” with at least 3 Ukrainian rent-boys). Yes, you whinging “Till the last Ukrainian” fanatics, you should be really happy that you helped Ms. Lindsay Graham (spending money to “Kill Russians” is the best thing possible, not for health care, roads, etc.) destroy that country. Brilliant!!
bruce wilder
I keep reminding myself that war is a means of persuasion. There are a lot of parties to persuade, only a very few of them in Ukraine. I was interested in the speculation about Ukrainian reaction to losing is likely to be in the OP. It is a country that had a huge demographic deficit before 2022, compounded now by a diaspora that is unlikely to see much reason to return. Who, if anyone, is going to want to lead Ukraine in surrender? Will the Russians be foolish enough to seek a Quisling?
I presume the Russians are willing and able to rebuild their four oblasts, though the effort will be huge. But, who is going to rebuild rump Ukraine? Private equity?
I have been on X-twitter a lot over the last ten days for reasons and am feeling the brain rot. It is disturbing how many European leaders cannot see their way to restoring relations with Putin’s Russia. I am not sure Putin wants normalization with Europe. The wave of Russophobic sentiment across Europe in 2022 shocked many Russians who would otherwise be more skeptical of Putin. It solved a lot of political resentment problems for Putin, just as war mobilization has solved economic problems since.
The OP’s speculation on how Ukrainians who remain or return to rump Ukraine choose to narrate the war to themselves afterward was interesting. But, how will Russians narrate the war to themselves afterward?
Purple Library Guy
It occurs to me that one reason the Europeans don’t want the war to end is they’ve gotten the bit between their teeth on massive military spending based on the idea that as soon as the Ukraine war is over, Putin will start aggression further west. So, when the war actually IS over and Putin doesn’t because he has no interest in that, where does that leave them? The longer they stall, the more that agenda becomes hard to reverse.
different clue
The only way the RussiaGov could avoid a nasty AfterPeace in Banderakraine is if it resists the temptation to break through too fast. So far they have resisted that temptation. So far they have made each “breakthrough” small and slow enough to renew the wellsprings of Ukraine’s rage and keep Ukraine fighting.
The only way there will be Peace there is if if Russia can keep Banderakraine fighting to the very last Azovist and the very last Svobodian. I suspect the RussiaGov knows this and will keep the front line mostly static so that Banderakraine keeps fighting to the very single last single fight-capable Banderakrainian.
It reminds me of something I learned on a PBS TV show about Harry Truman once. Back in WWI, when Harry Truman was a Captain of Artillery, he wrote a letter back to his mother in Missouri when the Allies had pushed the German forces right back to the German border. The PBS program read a part of that letter to us, the TV audience. I forget the exact wording but Captain Truman had written his mother basically this ( and I paraphrase): “Germany must not be allowed to surrender. The Allies must carry the war into Germany itself and conquer and destroy it and its Army until it begs to surrender. Otherwise, the Germans will bide their time, rebuild themselves and start another war in 20 years.”
Well, you could say that Truman was wrong by a year. So what’s a year? If the Russians are thinking in longest-term, they will do it the Truman way. And when Ukraine is finally so destroyed and depopulated that the survivors beg to surrender, the Russians must demand that Ukraine’s remaining ” national patriotic heroes” be the ones to make the surrender. It must be the surviving Grand Old Men and Field Leaders of Bandera, Svoboda, and Azov themselves who must sign the Instrument of Surrender.
Sean Paul Kelley
@Different Clue: the Russians are already considering plans for just this eventuality. I’ll try to dig up a link.
Sean Paul Kelley
@Purple Library Guy: agreed 100%.