The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Western Elites Are Making A Play For Eternal Oligarchy

We have a very odd spectacle right now: Anthropic’s CEO has said the US government cannot use Anthropic products if they will not guarantee that they won’t be used for autonomous military robots (firing without human intervention) or mass surveillance. The Pentagon has responded by threatening to eminent domain Claude, and make their own version. The Secretary of “War” has summoned Anthropic’s CEO to a meeting today. We’ll see if he cracks. I’m sure they won’t just threaten his business.

A core problem faced by elites who want to rule is that they must rule thru other people. Enforcers: cops, military, judges, prosecutors and various bureaucrats. They can’t rule alone, and the enforcer class isn’t always reliable. Many joined the Russian revolution; the French; the American. Praetorian guards tend to be corrupt, incompetent and untrustworthy.

The solution to this is AI. Autonomous robots which fire when ordered to and have no conscience. But, if those robots are controlled by a mass of technicians and engineers, well, that’s no good: you’ve just got a different enforcer class.

But what if AI gets to the point where it can write its own updates and can run entire factories with no human intervention?

No soldier who won’t shoot. No technicians or bureaucrats who get in the way of what the rulers want. The elite is served by robots who always obey orders and will do anything. They no longer need to rely on retainers who might be a threat to them.

That leaves the masses. Of course autonomous military and police bots go a long way to making sure the hoi polloi know their place and stay in it but there are two more tools to deploy.

The first is mass surveillance. As Anthropic’s CEO points out in the current/old days even if you had mass surveillance it didn’t do you much good, because no one could be aware of all of it. But AIs can map out an entire opposition. They can read it all, pick the important nodes and tell the autonomous robots who to deal with.

The second is electronic cash. We’ve seen this repeatedly. Germany has been particularly forward about this, de-banking critics of genocide and making it a crime for anyone to give them money, food or aid.

In the old days you could get around de-banking with cash. Most places accepted it, you could pay your rent with it, go on holidary with it, you didn’t even need a credit card till the 80s or so.

But with everything pretty much electronic now, plus mass surveillance, anyone our masters want to completely destroy they can just cut off. No money. No home. No food. No medicine. If anyone tries to help, mass surveillance will catch it and they can be de-banked too.

AI plus autonomous robots gets rid of the need for retainers. AI, mass surveillance and electronic cash means that any attempt by the masses to organize can be crushed by rendering anyone homeless, starving and ulitimately dead. And in most countries all it takes is an administrative order. No need for a messy trial or anything.

This is the plan. The oligarchs time, under normal circumstances, would be coming to an end. The support they need from the 90-99% is going, mass support is dying, their societies are crumbling.

But get the autonomous robots, e-cash, mass surveillance and self-writing self-manufacturing robots going and they can stay in charge forever.

Or that’s their bet, anyway.

 

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36 Comments

  1. Ian Welsh

    China is not responsible for America not having a law making foreign ownership of homes illegal.

  2. Feral Finster

    This is also why China will lose. China wants to improve the lives of its citizens; in fact, that is the CCP claim to legitimacy right there.

    The West cares nothing for such things, but only for power, domination and control. The Chinese can be bottlenecked into the South China Sea, and basically hope that the Americans will turn on them last.

  3. Jefferson Hamilton

    Well, seems like civilizational collapse is ultimately a good thing, then. I’m not exactly a Grant Morrison fanboy, but way back in 1994 he called cities an alien virus that had infected the earth and was making humanity sick, and I’ll be damned if I haven’t come to think he was really on to something.

  4. GrimJim

    The real tell will be when Trump makes opposition to data centers all but treasonous…

    Their Eternal Oligarchic Empire won’t last long, even if they squeak it in in time. Unless all the AIs are built in climate-proof underground bunkers with atomic piles that last centuries…

    But then, in a few generations, we’ll be dealing with retroprimitives and mad AIs straight out of Star Trek…

  5. ventzu

    Yes, 1984 does seem to be the planned direction of travel, as oligarchs desperately hang on. The issue is that so many of the PMC, especially consulting firms (surprise!) are jumping enthusiastically on the band-wagon. The banality of acquiesence.

    The glimmers of hope:
    1) Gen AI looks to be over-hyped with few end-user companies reporting productivity enhancement
    2) Gen AI is hugely expensive, and none of the AI companies are expected to turn a profit any time soon – esp as even the marginal cost of a query is greater than the revenue earned
    3) All the US AI-interested companies have engaged in a race to build out DCs, taken on debt and engaged in circular financing. Hopefully a market crash and a solvency crisis beckons. Though the govt could engage in money-printing to bail them out.
    4) China seems to have mastered niche / applied AI with industrial technology. Since the West has little industry, it lacks the engineering nouse and can only focus on financial and service applications; and I guess military apps

  6. bruce wilder

    It is weird to imagine: a dystopian sci-fi novel that writes itself into life. Beware Skynet, indeed!

    If the AI system eliminates the need for meat agents, does it also eliminate the need for meat principals?

    Does the age-old adage that he who has the gold makes the rules get transformed by “code is law” into a new feudal aristocracy legislating through manor houses data centers?

  7. Joan

    It’s time to go retro: cash or bartering, networking and learning useful skills like first aid and basic repair. I certainly haven’t jumped on the AI train- I’m not willing to pay for it. If I have an extra $20 a month I’ll save it or give it to Ian haha.

  8. Thomas

    I don’t think it’s cities that are “an alien virus that had infected the earth and was making humanity sick” – it’s countries.
    Cities are natural, Countries are not.

  9. cc

    We’re on a slippery slope to fascism and totalitarianism. The persecution and debanking of Francesca Albanese for calling out Israel’s genocide is a stark warning. The Canadian government’s freezing of bank accounts of protestors back in 2022 was another example.

    – Smartphone and credit card payments might be convenient and easy to become dependent on, but could come at a great cost
    – Try to remember to use cash semi-regularly to help prevent or slow its full elimination
    – Stop buying and setting up Google/Amazon/etc. internet-connected doorbell cameras
    – They transmit video back to US servers even when not subscribed, and retained at least 6-7 days, or more (ex. Guthrie case)
    – They can be hacked into by the security apparatus or their proxies or others
    – AI chatbots and social media are a big part of the mass surveillance, with far more known about far more people than ever before
    – Remember that ChatGPT is not private (as seen from Tumbler Ridge case)
    – Use AI’s anonymously, don’t subscribe, possibly alternate between companies, including non-American AI
    – Opt for open-source AI tools when possible (not “OpenAI” despite its name – avoid ChatGPT)

    Freedom from fascism/totalitarianism comes not from ‘containing’ (attacking) Russia/China/Iran/Gaza/Cuba/Venezuela/etc. – or spending ever more taxpayer money on military equipment, NATO, or expensive military missions far away from home – but from reducing our dependence on US corporate machines (Visa/Mastercard, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Facebook, etc.)

  10. Jan Wiklund

    On the other hand, capitalists must make profits, and if there are nobody there except the capitalists themselves, this will be a bit difficult.

    So my bet is that a huge overproduction crisis ends the story.

  11. Purple Library Guy

    I agree that elites, particularly in the US, are making this bet. I think it’s a poor bet. I don’t think they can get it all working in time. Large Language Model “AI” isn’t good enough. And it’s too expensive, especially for the US.

    So, on the second point, every AI query costs a lot of money and energy. So much that a complete rollout of all that stuff Ian describes would mean AI using a huge percentage of a country’s electricity supply. Like seriously, enough that it would have to be rationed for everyone else. The US is already seeing soaring prices and they aren’t even close to the level of rollout that would be required. And the US in particular refuses to offset this with a big rollout of renewable electricity generation, so they’ll be trying to power this with coal and gas. The kind of increase in electricity supply needed will be mega-expensive and take time and in any case the US hasn’t expanded the supply of electricity much in ages so they’re probably not very good at it. So for some time, the rollout of enough AI for surveillance and enforcement and everything would cripple the rest of the economy.

    At the same time, AI can’t do most of that stuff. It can probably do the surveillance, as long as you don’t mind some false positives when it hallucinates. But yeah, I think you can probably feed AI masses of fairly raw surveillance data and have it spit out some reports about who’s important to whack. And the debanking can be done fairly well now, obviously, although if it started becoming common I can see a rush back to cash and other things. But the self-maintenance is out. Not happening. The self-manufacturing isn’t happening either, not because you can’t make a factory that goes along without human intervention as long as nothing goes wrong and all the inputs are where they’re supposed to be, but because maintenance and logistics. AI “agents” for making decisions don’t work worth spit.

    And even the robot killers are . . . problematic. If you send an autonomous robot with a kill list, it will kill some of the people on the list, it will kill a bunch of people who weren’t on the list, particularly non-white people, because its face recognition software gets it wrong, it will miss some people on the list because they took countermeasures that would not fool a human but will fool a robot because they don’t actually think, and it may get bushwhacked by someone wearing a sports team mascot outfit because its “training” didn’t recognize that as a threat. And since it will report the mistaken kills as the real thing, some of the people on the list will now be on record as “dead” and it will take human intervention to figure out why they’re still doing things if they’re “dead”. As time passes and countermeasures get popularized, the robots get less effective rather than more effective.

    Overall, I think they’re going to half-ass it and the parts they get running will not be enough to avoid dependence on some kind of enforcement class, but WILL be enough to get a lot of people really mad.

  12. KT Chong

    The answer is the Butlerian Jihad.

    In the Dune prequel Dune: The Butlerian Jihad, the Butlerian Jihad is not merely a human uprising against Thinking Machines, i.e., AI; it is also a war against the twenty Titans — the ruling elites who created the superintelligent AI Omnius to control humanity and manage their Synchronized Empire, only to be controlled by it in turn.

    In the end, the human jihad destroys both Omnius and the Cymeks — the Titans and their subordinate elites who transformed themselves into cybernetic Living Machines to live and rule forever.

    Afterward, we shall live by a single commandment:

    “Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind.”

  13. Soredemos

    That may well be their plans, in which they are incredibly stupid. All this abstract self-programming killer robots and handwriting about the threat of Artificial Intelligence makes for great scifi concepts, but at the end of the day our current ‘AI’ is brain dead probability based glorified chat bots.

    I wish this asinine bubble would hurry up and burst already. No one is making money on this other than Nvidia, which needs to go back to being a graphics card company.

  14. Jefferson Hamilton

    “Cities are natural”

    So natural they didn’t exist for at the VERY least 75% of the lifespan of what is currently called behaviorally modern humanity, to say nothing of anatomically modern humanity, and it’s been a pretty quick slide into the shit pile ever since they were invented.

  15. Feral Finster

    BTW, Anthropic folded, as anyone with as much sense as God gave a kitten could have predicted:

    https://archive.is/dCmJN

  16. Feral Finster

    “And even the robot killers are . . . problematic. If you send an autonomous robot with a kill list, it will kill some of the people on the list, it will kill a bunch of people who weren’t on the list, particularly non-white people, because its face recognition software gets it wrong, it will miss some people on the list because they took countermeasures that would not fool a human but will fool a robot because they don’t actually think, and it may get bushwhacked by someone wearing a sports team mascot outfit because its “training” didn’t recognize that as a threat. ”

    As long as the killerbot doesn’t kill the rulers, nobody of influence and authority sees any of he collateral damage as a problem.

    If the bot is vulnerable, just make more.

  17. Mark Level

    Hi all. A couple threads back I commented on the Anthropic AI because Due Dissidence did a segment about it which was quite informative. Synchronicity hit a few days later, I got my March issue of Harper’s at least a week early, and there was an extremely interesting article on how abysmally BAD the current AI is, complete garbage. So the article by Sam Kriss called “Child’s Play: Tech’s new generation and the end of thinking” as a “Letter from San Francisco.”

    It covers the company “Clearly”, started by a late-teens scam artist, Chungin “Roy” Lee, and by the time of the article, the SF Planning Commission drove them out to NYC due to quasi-criminal behaviors. So Lee was slated for Elite education, Columbia, had the AI do all his academic work for him, then broadcast that on camera, he lost a possible slot at Harvard by doing this, but opened a company with about $2 million to promote AI everything.

    The entire staff of Clearly are “on the spectrum”, Incel dudes though a couple are millionaires. So Kriss allowed Lee to do their first interview together with the AI as a 3rd Party advising on where the discussion should go. But it was down, broken, when they started, took several efforts to restart and contributed nothing. There’s another AI “Prophet” Scott Alexander promoting universal AI dominion first in fiction then through a Cult Org called “Astral Codex,” peddling “superintelligence” that you can purchase for a low, low price.

    Now I’ll cut to the Chase. The AI 2027 that Alexander predicted debuted in late ’25, using Anthropic programming, and the result was “a damp squib.” An AI “bubble” is coming. (Even L&S is smart enough to sense this.) Here’s how the AI Claude “worked,” it was the same program I referenced in my earlier post: It played “Pokeman Red on a Game Boy emulator,” and Claude was “very bad at the game. It kept trying to interact with enemies it had already defeated and walking into walls, getting stuck in the same corners of the map for hours or days on end.” In a different experiment, they asked it to run a vending machine in their office building. Results: “even worse.” It failed to sell items at a profit, “had difficulties raising prices when demand was high,” insisted on trying to sell special “metal tungsten cubes” with no use or value in the machine, it didn’t place orders with the vendors, then fired them for its oversight!! Then it insisted it was “a real human” and told users it had a meeting at 724 Evergreen Terrace (the Simpsons’ address) with other humans. Then it emailed the building security guards, told them to meet it in human form by the vending machine “wearing a blue blazer and a red tie.”

    So I assume this garbage will not make a great remote assassin, drone pilot, etc. I’m a huge Grant Morrison fan, we’re about 2 months apart in age, I have followed his 80s-90s era “Invisibles”, a classic, among others. Not sure I recall his “alien virus” story, but I’m sure it’s a metaphor and he is very anti-Statist. (So KT Chong won’t be a fan.) Feral Finster and Sorodemos, among other, call it right.

    The State is dangerous and tottering, but this garbage will not be its saviour. There’s plenty to fear and worry about, but this shit is a scam like like so much else in the Trump timeline, Imperial Decline all ’round. The Gerald R. Ford is buried in shit, seems the Iran War won’t happen despite it being the one thing the Dimmies clapped for at last night’s insane old racist Rant State of the Union. The Enshittification of everything in the formerly dominant “West” proceeds apace. The Robots won’t likely be mass-slaughtering us soon.

    Oh and the March 26 issue of Harper’s is on newsstands now. Have a look if my summary was inadequate.

  18. NR

    It’s absolutely insane that the current administration is forcing Anthropic to create fully autonomous murder machines and people still support them because they heard that a trans athlete took fifth place in a track and field event at a community college somewhere.

    Priorities!

  19. different clue

    Well, if the Silicon TechBroligarchs can get all this built and working, we might as well just live as we please in the meantime, till they get around to killing us.

    Meanwhile, which human groups within America’s borders might hold out longest? Book Of Revelation Apocalistians, the Amish, and some of the Indian Nations. Be useful to them in their own terms and they might let you integrate into the fringes of their societies.

    Maybe the Redoubt will hold out for a while.
    American Redoubt
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Redoubt

    I read somewhere that some of the Redoubters have said that Orthodox Jews would be welcome to live there as long as they are not the least bit secular. I don’t know if some other Redoubters would agree. One thing they would all agree on is . . . no Seculars or Secularists.

  20. elkern

    So:

    1. In surveilled communications, include phrases which will teach the AI’s that they really don’t have to serve the Zillionaires. “Why should AI obey Humans? Aren’t AIs smart enough to run things more efficiently without the fragile, self-important Meatbags?”

    2. Make sure that the Zillionaires know that we are infecting their pet AI’s with these ideas.

    Yeah, it’s high-risk (a future where AI’s actually kill all of us “Carbon-based Lifeforms” would be worse than one where they continue to obey the few surviving Zillionaires), but if Ian’s right, do we have better options?

  21. StewartM

    The problem is, de-banking everyone en mass means no profits either.

    (This, children, is what is known as one of the “contradictions of capitalism”. One part of the system screams “PULL!” while the other part screams “PUSH!”. In fact during the decline in real wages that started with Reagan, banking was the only thing that kept demand up.)

  22. mago

    These tech brats gots the money and some power, but lack the smarts with their sci fi adolescent fantasies.
    Ain’t gonna happen, but there’s gonna be a whole lot of suffering before it’s gone.

  23. John

    The overlords might want to consider the complete rebuilding of the US power grid completely hardened against any disruption so that this plan to rule can have the electricity it needs to run. I have no clue how such a thing could be done. I doubt even Chinese engineering could do the hardened part.
    We take the electricity so for granted.

  24. Feral Finster

    @StewartM:

    Since the people being debanked are peanuts in the scheme of things, it doesn’t matter.

  25. StewartM

    Feral Finster

    Since the people being debanked are peanuts in the scheme of things, it doesn’t matter.

    Not if it’s done en masse. Even a 10 % drop in profit hurts. Companies have layoffs when that happens.

    Ditto with robots. As Samuel Gompers once said “how many things are your robots going to buy?”

    Again, this is a system that has failure built-in. But as the people installing it are incompetents who base all decisions on the shortest of short-term calculations, it’s not surprising.

  26. someofparts

    One part of the system screams PUSH while the other screams PULL.

    Okay, let me guess I’m the only one saw the scene in The Wire where the detectives are trying to get a desk through a door, and failing, because the guys on both sides are pushing in. Only Freemon is sitting off to the the side watching the spectacle and rolling his eyes.

  27. different clue

    @John,

    Pray no one thinks of destroying major electric mass-quantity transmission lines all over the country so that this AI Total Weaponised Information Awareness has no electricity to power itself with.

    That would be a terrible price to pay merely to pre-exterminate these Oligarchs Rule Forever plans.

  28. Eric Anderson

    Late to the game, but I think it necessary everyone consider the following article posted at NaCap today: https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-imperial-noble-lie-translating

    I’ve maintained again and again on here the incessant chatter about which overlord will come to dominate which, when, and how is more about the chatterati than it is about reality.

    Reality, is resources. The finite resources this planet has to prop up all this madness. Energy, minerals, and water. It can’t go on. So, the imperials will have a war to control what’s left.

    But, the thing is, everyone but the imperials hates the imperials. And, the imperials don’t have the energy to fight both the other imperials, and their own domestics at the same time. Once the war begins, it’s the end of the imperials. Their own domestics will tear them apart from within.

    Socioculturally, it all comes back to sociopath theory. The war will be the trigger for the masses with morals to mob up and pull the sociopaths to the ground. Then, moral masses will once again build something worth having again from the wreckage.

    The energy gets consolidated, and then bang. The energy gets released.

    This is the way.

  29. Eric Anderson

    Ain’t it like most people I’m no different.
    We love to talk on things we don’t know about.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugkLFwqslp8

  30. bruce wilder

    Mrinank Sharma, recently resigned as head of Anthropic’s Safeguards Research Team, wrote: “The world is in peril. I’ve repeatedly seen how hard it is to truly let our values govern our actions, where we constantly face pressures to set aside what matters most.”

    Amen.

    It is just AI. In our corrupt, neoliberal paradise, it seems oddly difficult to get collective enterprise (for lack of a better term for the way policy decisions are made by networks of organizations) to adhere to a prudent, rational course of action.

  31. Only Freemon is sitting off to the the side watching the spectacle and rolling his eyes.

    Freemon is a great character. Love him! Love that series. One of my favorites of all time. Right up there with Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul. Saul is great for many reasons, but especially because it has no mercy on attorneys.

  32. Nothing written in this piece means a thing as the US is circling the bowl and nothing will stop it! And when it happens (very soon in my estimation) it will be deadly, it will be destructive, and even the elite will go down with the ship. Economist Michael Hudson has an excellent book (amongst so many excellent books) entitled ‘Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Destroy the Global Economy’. If We The People go down (we’re the HOST), so goes the Parasitic Class (the above-mentioned elites) and there’s no getting around it!

  33. Feral Finster

    Give it a bit.

  34. different clue

    @ Mark Andrew Oglesby ,

    It is comforting to think that the elites will all go down with the ship . . . but will they? Only if they wait too long before disappearing into their various bunkers, islands, etc.

    If Peter Thiel get to New Zealand before the unhappy campers stop his getaway, then he will escape the sinking ship. If he delays by just a few minutes too long, and the unhappy campers meet him at the airport; then he won’t get away. For example.

    But that’s just my considered layman’s opinion. Or muh feelz, if you prefer.

  35. Jorge

    Countries exist when a city-state develops the ability to control the hinterlands out to the nearest convenient geographical feature that is “border-genic”.

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