The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

The New Cold War Intensifies

We all know about American sanctions. They are enforced by removing people from the US/EU banking system, and the SWIFT transfer network.

Because this system was used by almost everyone for international transfers, the US could forbid trade between third parties: “you can’t buy or sell from Russia/Iran/whoever because we’ll cut you off from our system.”

American law only applies in America. If Russia and Nigeria want to trade something, that should have nothing to do with the US and it should have no say. But it has and entire countries have been devastated by it.

China’s had enough:

This week a Singaporean shipping company received a hefty fine in China, the fine was just short of 5 million RMB. What happened was, they had refused to fulfill a shipment from Shanghai to Panama and returned the goods because the Hong Kong shipper was included on a U.S. sanctions list. I hope you heard that, a Singaporean shipping company, nothing to do with the USA, refused a shipment that was sent from Shanghai, in China, to Panama in Central America, of products that were being shipped by a HK company that is sanctioned.

Had the goods been going to the USA, then this would not have been illegal, because the goods, or the company shipping them are sanctioned there and Chinese domestic law can’t change that.

However, the Shanghai Maritime Court ruled this as a breach of contract, China has not sanctioned this company, the US had nothing to do with the product, the shipping or the destination so, based on Article 12 of the new Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, the court ordered compensation for the loss of over RMB 4.99 million plus interest. It went on to the Supreme People’s Court which subsequently listed it as a typical case, stating it was the first judicial judgment confirming the mandatory applicability of the law.

What this means, if it continues, and the supreme court of China’s language indicates that it will, is that you’ll be forced to choose: you can either obey US sanctions, in which case you can’t do business with China, or you can obey Chinese law and that means you won’t be able to do business with America or its vassals.

It took China a long time to do this. Only recently did China decide that the US can no longer stop its technological and industrial progress: China is ahead in almost all techs, and in the few it’s behind in it doesn’t feel it must have US goods. China forcing even AI companies to use domestic chips was a tell.

Last decade I predicted that a likely outcome of the rise of China and America’s fall was a new cold war. There’s an entire topic category “New Cold War”.

And here we are, with it reaching the serious stage.

The bottom line is that while China is happy to sell to the US and wants to keep doing so, it no longer absolutely needs to. Nor does it need parts from the US. It’s the West that needs tech transfers from China.

And there’s no upside to helping the US other than sales because everything that makes the US stronger is used to hurt China or its friends. Notice that BRICS includes two countries currently at war with the West: Russia and China, America is trying to flip Brazil back to the hard right, and Trump is constantly sanctioning South Africa.

Helping America, if you’re China, is as stupid as it gets given America has clearly treated China as an enemy and is assaulting China’s friends.

In the last cold war Russia was the weaker side, economically, from the start to the end. In this war China is stronger in every way that matters: militarily, industrially and technologically. It also has a larger population.

The smart money is “always bet on the stronger side”. Sure sometimes they lose. But not often. And the West is now the weaker side.

Welcome to the end of the European centuries. We had one hell of a run, but our leaders pissed it away. Let us hope that China is a kinder hegemon than Europe or America ever were.

 

What I write here is for the benefit of everyone, but alas, I live in capitalism and I, and the site, take money to keep running. If you value the writing here and can, please subscribe or donate.

Previous

Iran Has Settled In For The Long Haul As Hardliners Take Control

Next

Another Big Profit Opportunity For Elites Is On The Way (Bonds/Carry Trade)

16 Comments

  1. Feral Finster

    Good. Let’s see if China actually sticks to their guns this time.

  2. StewartM

    Because this system was used by almost everyone for international transfers, the US could forbid trade between third parties: “you can’t buy or sell from Russia/Iran/whoever because we’ll cut you off from our system.”

    The flaw in the Reagan economy was that when you gut your own real economy for the paper one, you end up with few real things of worth anyone else would care to buy. So it eventually makes cutting the umbilical cord back to Mother US easier.

  3. spud

    “We had one hell of a run, but our leaders pissed it away.”

    i made a nice post today about clever, cunning and manipulative capitalists running apple.

    they must be bouncing off the wall in rage, picking up the phone, and demanding war with china.

    but OOPS, not so smart. they are arrogant, smug and constantly smirking. lenin just wiped away their arrogance. they shot themselves in the foot repeatedly. bill clinton gave them what they wanted, and they stripped america bare.

    all they have left is paper, stocks, bonds, copyrights and patents, and lots and lots of banana’s, i mean dollars. all of which will melt away right before their eyes, just as marx predicted.

    lets hope the big three, russia, china, and iran are done placating them. the only thing the 500 years plus trading empire has left, is nukes.

    i do not put anything past a capitalist. they will try, or use them. they are that desperate.

  4. spud

    the other day this pea brain told trump, just go take the straights, quite talking. he is also tough on russia.

    today the pea brain has run finland into the ground.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjzdustH8N4

    EXPLAINED: Is Finland Going To Be First European Economy To Collapse? | Times Now World

    Finland, once regarded as one of Europe’s strongest economic performers, is facing a prolonged period of weak growth, high unemployment and rising public debt. The Nordic country’s problems have built up over years, following the decline of Nokia and its paper industry, an ageing population and a shrinking working-age base.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added another major shock, disrupting trade and tourism across Finland’s 1,340-kilometre eastern border while increasing pressure to raise defence spending. Finland’s unemployment is now above 10%, while government forecasts see debt rising further in coming years.

    This explainer looks at how Finland went from being a European economic role model — and a vocal supporter of fiscal discipline during the eurozone debt crisis — to confronting unemployment, weak growth and rising debt itself. It examines the collapse of Nokia, the loss of Russian economic ties, demographic pressures and the difficult choices facing Helsinki as it tries to restore growth while bringing public finances under control.

  5. mago

    With a left and a right and an uppercut pummel the beast til he drops to his knees rope a dope dance like a butterfly sting like a bee apologies to Muhammad Ali.

  6. Dan Kelly

    BRICS is not a serious endeavor rather it is a silly acronym for public consumption.

    China’s strict domestic currency controls serve to strengthen the international markets of which China itself is a part.

    You also have to look at the deeply structured military-intel relationships.

    Australian billionaire Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest has explicitly structured his mining giant, Fortescue Ltd to both both sell and borrow in Yuan thus creating a currency hedge to his benefit.

    Most other Australian mining companies and other companies in Australia have begun doing same.

    China has been very aggressive and it has actually caused the Australian companies to band together to form a sellers cartel and ask the Australian govt for relief.

    But the point is that Fortescue and all these companies are still intimately tied to the western financial system.

    China’s strict domestic currency controls actually serve to strengthen the dollar as reserve currency.

    There is not going to be any ‘basket of currencies’ based on gold, lithium and gallium or any ridiculous enterprise such as that.

    Canada shares NORAD with the US and all of NATO’s military are deeply structurally embedded via LINK 16.

    So, back to Australia:

    At the same time many of its companies are increasing trade with China the state itself is increasing its NATO embeddedness. They have recently uprgraded Link 16 and they are taking on the nuclear subs which embeds them even deeper.

    The US has increased its troop presence and rotations in Australia and the US govt is debt financing raw earth mines in Australia…all with Australia’s blessing.

    Here is some info I gathered on the emerging digital payment framework and how west and east still meet in Hong Kong. Just as ‘BRICS’ was spread by Goldman Sachs, mBridge and its equivalents were spawned by the BIS.

    ‘The e-HKD may serve as the interoperability bridge between the Agora-SWIFT and mBridge-CIPS systems.’

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/08/open-not-ukraine-or-iran-thread-2026-172.html#comment-1397602

    Here is more info on how deeply structurally integrated things are and some of the fascinating dynamics currently at play:

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/08/iran-open-thread-2026-174.html#comment-1397525

    ‘The entire ‘Americas’ are under NATO protection including Greenland which is fascinating and serves to illustrate how there is room to maneuver locally even given the all-encompassing nature of the ‘security’ architecture.

    Canadian and US personnel work together inside NORAD and even independent Mexico – which is not connected via ‘Link 16’ – Mexico nevertheless works with US, Canada and others on continental ‘security’ via USNORTHCOM.’

    https://archive.ph/5bnhi#selection-939.0-939.35

  7. different clue

    Well! . . . here’s something America can still do.

    The First Horror Movie Written Entirely By Bots
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZzbxNoMjGM

    If China finds this sort of thing amusing, we might still be able to earn some sort of meager living.

  8. GrimJim

    Question on SWIFT for those more in the know:

    It is ostensible headquartered in Belgium. Is that where all the core data systems are?

    Would it be possible for Europe/NATO to seize SWIFT and change it from Dollars to Euros if, for example, the US were to invade Greenland?

    Or is it the programming controlled by the US from afar?

  9. Jan Wiklund

    The Nato countries believe that the have a trump card (no pun intended): listen to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VK3vx0T49So or read https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/p/nato-30-the-transatlantic-cage-and.

    The strategy seems to be 1. making havoc at the transport “chokepoints”, 2. destroy all oil sources except the ones controlled by US, and 3. getting monopoly of information through Palantir, SpaceX, Microsoft Office, and the like. The last point should have included SWIFT, but the Chinese CIPS has probably made it obsolete.

    It’s more necessary than ever to wean us from fossils.

  10. Carborundum

    Judging by the location and timing (October 2022), this sounds likely to be sanctions related to Russian military procurement networks.

    The key factor is that the legal dispute is because the company involved contracted to ship the goods and then did not. Had they taken a look at who was letting the contract and decided not to bid, this case doesn’t occur. (I would speculate that they may have been unlucky on the timing – Sinno Electronics was sanctioned Sept 30.)

  11. Feral Finster

    @spud:

    The sole priority of the european political class is The War On Russia, namely, in getting Americans to fight Russia for them.

    Everything the finns and germans and french and british governments do is with that war in mind. As long as they personally do not have to fight.

  12. cc

    Western money goes mainly toward destruction, terrorism, and tearing others down:
    – toward wars (ex. The West’s war against eastern Ukraine/Russia using the neo-Nazis of Galicia and press-ganged Ukrainian cannon fodder, against Iran/Palestine/Lebanon/Syria/Yemen in conjunction with the racist/genocidal Zionist regime, against Afghanistan, Libya, Syria using AQ/ISIS/HTS, against Venezuela, Cuba, etc.),
    – toward massively expensive war equipment built to be destroyed while destroying infrastructure, lives, and the environment.
    – toward Tonya Harding destabilization/subversion/spying/corruption/sabotage/regime-change/buying off foreign comprador elites

    and toward plutocracy:
    – inflating the US stock market to enrich the wealthiest 1%
    – paying usury (aka debt and interest) to profit the big banks and private equity, to enrich the wealthiest 1%
    – buying off politicians (legalized corruption, aka “lobbying”) to enrich the wealthiest 1%
    – keeping the 99% population entertained, ignorant, distracted, and divided.

    China’s money, in contrast, goes mainly toward long-term investments in critical industries, infrastructure, construction, education, technology, the 99%, the people, society, trade ties, BRI, the Global South, the Global Majority.

    If countries are now forced to choose sides, which will they choose? It probably comes down to how much their elites have been corrupted/subverted/Epsteined by the US/West/Israel, and how awake or asleep their people are.

    Will they choose the Empire and join the Dark Side, or will they choose to join the Resistance?

    Will they choose to join the “Resistance is Futile” Borg, or will they choose humanity?

  13. different clue

    Here is a Belle of the Ranch video explaining yet another way that Trump is helping the China aligned side win the new cold war faster.

    Let’s talk about South Korea shifting because of Trump’s weakness….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLHs_p9O6fE

    My theory of the Trump remains that Trump hates America because he suspects that at least half of America knows how dumm and stupid and smelly and evil Trump is … so he wants to get revenge on America for having that knowledge.

    I suppose conspiracy theorists could also speculate about how Trump may also be a secret asset or even agent of Russia, China, North Korea, etc.

  14. Mark Level

    Yeah, I’m with the other commenters and spud especially, good comments all ’round, I think it’s clear who will win, there is no Wunder Waffen that can dig “the West” out from its own massive brain-rot in the halls of power.

    My question is, George Galloway just noted that the installed (nobody cast a single vote for him) Epstein Cadre in the sinking UK, Andy Burnham, just bragged that the UK is “at war with Russia.” GG’s well-placed question now that he is in Exile (as am I) is why don’t the Russians, the world’s largest nuclear power, just lob a big ‘un into 10 Downing Street or elsewhere?

    Gonna echo Finster (& others) here– seems overdue to me.

    Oh, and by the bye, that Machiavellian clown Erdogan was siding with Ukraine, regularly poked the bear. (E.g. the worst Ukro-Nazis, actual Azov were given Turkish sanctuary, supposed not to be sent home. He did it with at least have a dozen of the most rabid. I guess that dream’s done now.)

  15. Feral Finster

    @Mark Level:
    The Russian leadership are incredibly naive, and they keep getting played for fools, over and over again.

    Anyway, Burnham simply points out the obvious, that I have said so many times: the uk political class has no priority other than the War On Russia, aided by the fact that Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. WWIII is literally the only thing on the uk and european political class’ Christmas list.

  16. Feral Finster

    @Mark Level:
    The Russian leadership are incredibly naive, and they keep getting played for fools, over and over again.

    Anyway, Burnham simply points out the obvious, that I have said so many times: the uk political class has no priority other than the War On Russia, aided by the fact that Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. WWIII is literally the only thing on the uk and european political class’ Christmas list.

    Erdogan also knows that Putin is weak and indecisive, while the West is strong, decisive and aggressive. He sees Russia as prey.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén