The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: 4

America Psychopathy Continues To Stun (Cuba Edition)

So, as you probably know America is stopping all fuel from reaching Cuba. They’ll be out in days. Tomorrow the jet fuel runs out, so no more international flights.

But the real issue is that no fuel means no diesel tractors, no distribution of food, not enough refridgeration: in a word, famine.

This is deliberate US policy. Mexico has a sent a couple of ships full of food with a military escort, but that’s irrelevant: without fuel the food will not get where it needs to go and cannot be preserved. She doesn’t have the guts to send oil, which is understandable.

This is the problem with the fall of the USSR. No one these days has the balls, desire and ability to stand up to the US when it pulls shit like this. Russia’s busy and a lot weaker than it used to be, plus they’re basically just off-brand capitalists now, China doesn’t care and doesn’t have a navy with enough projection power yet, and the EU are spineless (that may be changing somewhat, but not fast enough.) Everyone else is too weak and too scared.

An international convoy system, with each convoy guarded by military ships from multiple countries might work, but I see no sign anyone is even talking about it, let alone organizing.

So Cubans will starve if Trump keeps this up and Cuba doesn’t capitulate and let America choose its government.

This is a direct result of Trump getting away with his naval blockade on Venezuela: in that case not letting them send oil out. No one did anything to stop America or to even impose a cost, so on to Cuba.

China could simply cut off all access to some key manufactured goods like magnets or any of hundreds of other goods where they’re the only supplier, including goods that the US has to have to make weapons. But this doesn’t really matter to them, so they aren’t. Or a coalition of other countries could all sanction the US at the same time, but again, no.

Perhaps your question is “why should they?”

I’m glad you asked, imaginary but helpful reader.

Because Trump started with Venezuela, then went to Cuba. Who will he go to next? There are four strategies for dealing with bullies:

  1. Join them and beat up their victims. (We’ll call this the NATO strategy.) If you help them, and kiss their ass enough, maybe they won’t attack you. Works surprisingly well, until it doesn’t. Ask Denmark about that. Or Canada. Or, well, the EU as a whole.
  2. Fight back. If you’re too weak, get together with your friends. Even if you lose, make them hurt. And you might win (Vietnam says “Hi! America still cringes every time they hear our name!”)
  3. Scurry like rats into corners and hope they don’t pick you as their next victim.
  4. Ignore them if you’re as strong or stronger than them. Bullies only attack those weaker than them. You aren’t. Who cares who they beat up as long as it isn’t you?

Most of the world is picking : “scurry like rats!” China isn’t, they’re picking “Who cares if they beat someone else up, they can’t do it to us!”

There’s a lot to be said for , as long as you’re sure you’ll never be weaker than the bully (a safe bet for China right now) and don’t give a damn about anybody but yourself.

But , “scurry like rats, hoping you aren’t the next victim” is stupid. Each successful victimization just whets the bully’s appetite and the more cowardice he sees, the more he pushes people around. Victims multiply.

Don’t want America, under Trump or another President to revisit the Greenland situation with an amphibious assault one fine morning?

Send those convoys to Cuba or find some other way to hurt America in general and Trump in specific. Not because you care about Cubans or, heck, human welfare. Gaza has revealed you don’t give a shit. But because you’re protecting yourself by protecting others, setting the precedent that the powerful can’t just pick you off one by one.

But that would require statesmen with guts, wouldn’t it?

Ain’t none of them in the EU with any power.

So I guess the Cubans will starve, just like the Palestinians, in a 100% manmade famine which the US either caused (Cuba) or which couldn’t have happened without American assistance (Palestine.)

Remember, the Athenians in the Melian dialogue were right “The powerful do what they will, the weak suffer what they must” but so were the Melians when they pointed out that with every atrocity the Athenians were alienating others, and that they, too, would suffer.

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Random Late Saturday/Early Sunday Quick Hits

While researching a post I promised on why France collapsed so quickly in World War Two I came across this video on the Russo-German Reinsurance Treaty. Do yourself a favor and watch it. It will give you a much more balanced view of the man Bismarck–you’ll not be looking at him through the lens of World War Two or World War One for that matter.

Finally, I think all of us can agree that Disney Star Wars has been 90% joke. All except for Rogue One and the recently completed season two of Andor. As the Critical Drinker says, season two is “the kind of TV your sitting on the edge of your seat in complete silence knowing this is the kind of TV that comes along once every 5-10 years.”

I’ve re-evaluated my favorite Star Wars movies–not a single TV show, not even the silly Mandalorian makes the top five, except Andor. Obviously A New Hope is number one. Rogue One is number two, Empire Strikes Back is number three, Andor both seasons are number 4 and number five is a toss up between Return of the Jedi or Revenge of the SithWhat say you people?

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 29, 2024

By Tony Wikrent

 

Strategic Political Economy

A Newly Declassified Memo Sheds Light on America’s Post-Cold War Mistakes 

[Slate, via Naked Capitalism 12-27-2024]

…The newly discovered memo, written in March 1994 by Wayne Merry, chief of the U.S. Embassy’s [in Moscow] internal politics division at the time, didn’t make the same impact as Kennan’s for two reasons. First, Merry did not go public. Second, unlike Kennan’s memo, Merry’s was at odds with U.S. policy and was ignored, then buried, and its author was blackballed, by the policymakers at the time. In fact, it was buried so deeply that it was declassified just last week as the result of a lawsuit filed under the Freedom of Information Act by the National Security Archive, a private research firm at George Washington University.

Looking at it today, more than 30 years after the fact, it’s a remarkably prescient document that should prompt several lessons about how to run foreign policy.

Merry’s memo, titled “Whose Russia Is It Anyway: Toward a Policy of Benign Respect,” was written as Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s experiment with democracy and free-market economics was in heightened turmoil. The party of his prime minister, Yegor Gaidar, the architect of his economics policy, had recently lost an election—the result of popular discontent with the policy’s extreme inflation and displacement. Yeltsin mobilized tanks in downtown Moscow to put down an attempted putsch—launched for a variety of motives—in Russia’s Parliament. Yet, to the frustration of specialists in the U.S. Embassy, including Merry, many senior officials back in Washington saw Yeltsin as a still-strong figure and his “shock therapy” economics—which they had been pushing, along with a bevy of academic advisers, many of them from Harvard—as a success.

Merry stressed the urgent need for a course correction:

Democratic forces in Russia are in serious trouble. We are not helping with a misguided over-emphasis on market economics. There is no reason to believe the Russian economy is capable of rapid market reform. There is reason to fear that an intrusive Western effort to alter the economy against the wishes of the Russian people can exhaust the already-diminishing reservoir of goodwill toward America, assist anti-democratic forces, and help recreate an adversarial relationship between Russia and the West.

The West, Merry continued, should focus more on helping Russia develop “workable democratic institutions” and a “non-aggressive external policy.” U.S. interests “are directly tied to the fate of Russian democracy but not to the choices that democracy may make about the distribution of its own wealth” or “the organization of its means of production and finance.”….

 

With Help From NAFTA 2.0, US Strikes Brutal Blow Against Mexican Food Sovereignty, Health and Global Biodiversity

Nick Corbishley, December 24, 2024 [Naked Capitalism]

…Mexico has lost the dispute settlement panel brought by the US and Canada over its attempt to ban imports of genetically modified corn for direct human consumption. On Friday (December 20), the arbitration panel ruled in favour of the United States, asserting that Mexico’s 2023 decree banning the use of genetically modified (GM) white corn for human consumption violated the terms of the trade agreement.

It wasn’t even a close run thing: the panel’s three judges agreed with the US on all seven counts in the case. The panel has given Mexico 45 days to realign its policies with the ruling. Failure to do so could result in stiff penalties, including sanctions.

As we’ve noted before, this case may be an important battle for Big Ag lobbies and biotech companies but it is an existential one for Mexico, for whom corn is the cornerstone not only of its cuisine and diet but also its culture….

 

Support for Luigi Mangione Reflects Working Class Weariness of Top-Down Violence

Megan Thiele Strong, December 28, 2024 [Common Dreams]

Some fear the positive regard of Mangione is indicative of a shift into a new era where violence is glorified and humanity is lost. As a sociology professor who teaches Poverty, Wealth, and Privilege, I disagree. This failure of subsets of the public to broadly denounce the actions of Mangione does not herald a cultural shift in appreciation of violence….

Second, the working classes are weary from surviving an unnecessarily violent and unjust society. We live amid staggering class, race, and gender-based stratification and life and death stakes everyday. The ruling class profits from our blood, sweat, and tears. And yet, when one of the elite passes, they want us to give them more. They ask us to give them our love. Yet, they remain calloused to our pain and ignore our pleas for fairness.

We all deserve the same sanctity of life given to wealthy insiders. However, when it comes to many of our social systems, such as healthcare, respect and care are not institutionalized; instead, harm is normalized. We see “out-sized returns” to private equity investors….

Our healthcare system is not pro-health. The World Health Organization (WHO) names universal healthcare as a worldwide goal. The United States has not complied. Most Americans are insured through private companies. Many Americans struggle to pay for healthcare, they postpone receiving care, and are in medical debt. The healthcare system has practices, such as using AI to deny a high number of healthcare claims, which put profits over people. There is something deeply inhumane and harmful about this disregard for health in a healthcare system. It may not be illegal, but it is savage.

The elite and their apologists ask, “How could they not be appalled by Thompson’s murder?” Instead we, as a community, might ask, how are the elite and their apologists not appalled by a harm-rich system that normalizes the idea that humans are only as valuable as their economic worth? Decades ago, Larry Summers, currently on the board of directors of OpenAI, famously wrote that people who produce less are more expendable. This classist ideology pervades our healthcare system….

 

Global power shift

The Plan To Carve Up the World Is Underway

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