The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Covid–19 Page 6 of 21

Taking Omicron Seriously

Omicron is insanely contagious. Where I live, cases are doubling every three days. There are places where the doubling rate is two days.

It appears optimized for blowing through vaccines and natural immunity, which is to be expected. We partially immunized the world, but didn’t wipe out Covid, and it mutated to adapt. Because, in many places, a majority had vaccination and natural immunity, the virus adapted to this.

I quoted this May 2021:

The first big breakout variant, the UK strain, was specifically adapted against masks. It was much more contagious, so minor mask lapses were more easily exploited. It spread more evenly, relying less on super-spreader events, and was more infectious to children, who mask poorly.

The next big breakout was the South African strain, which was part of the family of Covid strains that contain a mutation colorfully labeled “Eek,” which evades antibodies, especially from natural infection or weaker vaccines, because that was/is becoming a bigger impediment than masks.

Now that MRNA vaccines are becoming the tool of choice, if the virus is allowed to continue to circulate in a partially-vaccinated Western population, it is only a matter of time before that becomes the biggest impediment to Covid’s success, and viruses are selected for resistance to it.

(Cue swelling music). LIFE, LIFE finds a WAY!

So, that prediction (not mine, but adopted by me because it made sense), came true.

Now, it’s still unclear how virulent Omicron cases are, because there are a lot of confounding factors. While vaccines don’t protect nearly as much against it, they do make you a lot less likely to die or wind up hospitalized. My sense is that it’s probably about as virulent as the original strain, but not as virulent as Delta.

Omicron appears to be excellent at re-infecting. Odds are you can get it multiple times.

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We also don’t know, yet, how much Long Covid it produces. Bear in mind that, in about half of those people with symptomatic cases of original or Delta, there’s lung scarring even if they don’t have “Long Covid” symptoms. Brain damage is pretty common too, and Covid often damages kidneys. People who are young and fit have gotten this; I have an acquaintance whose brain damage was so bad he got aphasia — he now sounds like a stroke victim and is in speech therapy.

So I’d take this seriously, especially since we don’t know Long Covid works. It may be that your chances of getting it increase each time you have Covid, or just that you have a chance each Covid infection. While Omicron does defeat vaccines better than previous strains, mRNA vaccines (ideally three doses) do provide protection; ventilation will work, etc.

Omicron should never have happened. There should have been a coordinated global effort to eradicate the virus, using basic epidemiological principles that have worked where applied, like in China and New Zealand, combined with travel bans, quarantines, and worldwide vaccine rollout.

Sadly for you and me, but not for our lords and masters, Covid was hugely profitable to the richest people, so it was allowed to spread. Billionaires have seen their wealth double and you just can’t pass up that sort of profit event, certainly not for something as trivial as millions of people dying and possibly being crippled for life. “Hard decisions,” y’know?

(One silver lining of all this is that Omicron is so contagious it seems to be busting through elite cordons. Bill Gates is in isolation now, and if he gets it and dies, it will be exactly what he deserves.)

The deaths and suffering are about a lot more than Covid, as well. To use the simplest example, a lot of surgeries and procedures have been delayed during the plague, and people are suffering and dying because of that. Where I live, I’ve seen response to cancer discovery go from about two months from initial finding to surgery/treatment to well over four months (not sure how much over four months yet, finding out the hard way). That will turn some people’s treatable cancer into a death sentence. The same is true of heart issues, and so on.

This is what our elites do. They make themselves richer and more powerful, and they do so by hurting and killing other people. Whatever you think of the CCP, and there’s a great deal I do’t like, after initial denial and foolishness, they treated Covid seriously and not primarily as a profit event. Since a few Western states did likewise, we know this isn’t a case of “only totalitarian governments can,” but it’s still an indictment that a single party authoritarian state has handled the plague better than almost every “democratic” nation.

Grim news for the Christmas season, and totally unnecessary, but like with climate change and ecological collapse, it’s where we are. Because we let our elites kill us, but never even consider returning the favor.

Be as well as  you can be, and I hope you remain untouched by all this.

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Get Ready for More Shutdowns

Omicron is VERY contagious. Where I am, we have doubling of cases every three days, and that seems typical.

No matter how much politicians don’t want more closures, this is going to overwhelm ICUs and force closures — unless politicians are willing to see people dying in the streets (which some may be).

So, expect new closures, soon. I would suspect that most governments will try to hold off until after Christmas, but even that may not be possible.

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Elementary School Covid Outbreaks in Ontario

So, for a couple years now, almost, I’ve been warning about schools and Covid.

https://twitter.com/Billius27/status/1467528981754826755

In Ontario, teenagers can be vaccinated and children under 12 only became eligible November 24th.

Vaccines do reduce cases; children are not immune, and they do spread it to others.

Ontario’s overall policy has been deranged. Currently, large sporting events and casinos are operating. Before they were, R wasn’t over 1, now it is.


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In any case, if you reside somewhere where children aren’t vaccinated and can reasonably, and you can legally keep your kids home, I’d do so unless the schools are properly ventilated (almost none of them are). Remember, again, that long-Covid is a thing, and could fuck you or someone you care about up for life, even if you don’t die from Covid.

Generally speaking, the most important thing is that Covid is airborne. Proper ventilation is a must. Buildings which just centrally recirculate air are delivering Covid directly to you, which is why most hotels aren’t a good place to quarantine people.

Personally, I’ve been keeping outside air circulation going where I live since Covid started, since otherwise I live in a central air building. Insufficient, but better than nothing.

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Be well and be safe.

 

 

A Few Words About the Omicron Covid Variant

We don’t know a great deal about this with any certainty yet.

It appears:

  • To have milder symptoms in the young. We don’t know if it does in the old.
  • To be more transmissable.
  • Less cough, no loss of taste.

Many are suggesting this is a good variant: mild, everyone gets it, gets immune — or it turns into a new flu.

Maybe. (“Appears” is the word I used for a reason.)

What I want to know is how deadly it is for the old, how long any acquired immunity lasts, and whether it spawns long Covid.

If it does spawn long Covid, how does that work? If you don’t get Long Covid the first time, can you get it another time? If you can, and Omicron is chronic and widespread, the odds of eventually getting Long Covid go way up.


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And, of course, if Covid, in general, continues to mutate fast, will a high virulence variant lead to other variants? If so, the next one might be high virulence with worse symptoms.

In the meantime, I’d suggest being careful, still. N95 masks, and let’s see how this plays out.

Once More Unto Covid and Schools

Given the state of testing, all numbers should be assumed to be significant understatements, yet…

Colorado, “more than half of all outbreaks are in K-12 schools.”

US overall:

“Well over a quarter-million children contracted COVID just last week, according to a joint report from the Children’s Hospital Association & the AAP which tracks all cases at the state level. It is the highest number of child COVID cases ever reported.

More than 18,000 Mississippi students have caught COVID-19 in the first month of the school year.

Florida:One out of every four COVID-19 infections recorded by the state in the most recent seven-day period were 19 or younger.

Texas schools have amassed more than 50,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in students in just a couple of weeks. More than a dozen school districts have closed temporarily as a result of the disease

Modeling of how many students can be expected to be infected under different conditions:

What matters the most is proper ventilation, but I’m guessing the assumption is that most schools have done nothing about this and will do nothing.

It’s unclear what percentage of children get Long Covid. I’ve seen numbers as high as ten percent, but it seems likely to be less. Assume, say, five percent, and that your kid WILL get Covid if sent back to school. Sound like a good chance to take? And that assumes the damage is easy to spot, and you won’t realize it exists later, as with more subtle brain or heart damage.

This looks like mass-insanity to me, a crime of vast proportions. Despite all the squealing, not going back to school won’t cripple kids for life, and won’t expose everyone in their family and social circle to Covid when they get it, crippling and killing many of them.

But I guess we’re just going to keep doing Covid the stupidest, longest, and most inhumane way we can. It’s who we are; it’s who we elected, and I daresay, it’s what we deserve.

But the kids don’t deserve it, it’s just their bad luck to be born into a depraved, incompetent, psychopathic late-imperial society.


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As Employers Cut Their Own Throats: How They Could Save Themselves

From the Washington Post:

You will remember that employers squealed they were having trouble finding workers, so Republican states ended extra EI benefits.

The end result? No more workers, but businesses were harmed by reduced spending.

Whoops?

One of the many fundamental “errors” in neoliberal thinking is that you want workers and recipients of government aid to not have a lot of money. After all, they’re a cost.

But every business’s employee is a bunch of other businesses’ customer, and every aid recipient is also a customer. Smart businessmen, or ones who have learned from experience (a.k.a., those who remembered the Great Depression) know this, and want high wages. It’s not a competitive disadvantage if everyone has high wages. Likewise, generous government benefits are good for business.

So smart businessmen want a high minimum wage without exceptions, and generous benefits.

One of the few real insights of modern economics is “marginal” thinking. For decision making, it doesn’t matter what the average cost of something is; what matters is the cost of the next unit — the next widget you make or the next employee. This means that supply matters a lot. For a job for which 100 people are applying, every open position puts employers in the cat seat.

If there are three, a lot less so. If there is one job-seeker per three open slots, well, you’re going to have to raise wages, both to compete and to increase the pool. I recently read an article where a homecare business was complaining that there was one person per ten open positions, but they also noted they paid a couple dollars less an hour than retail and menial labor jobs.

Anyway, even if the Covid death toll seems large, it’s the effect on marginal workers that matters. Add to that that many workers who kept their jobs are not going back to offices and the geography of jobs has also changed. People who run businesses in fancy, high-priced suburbs without any real transit, can’t expect nearly as many cheap workers, because they can’t afford to live in that suburb and traveling to it is hard. You create enclaves that price out blue collar and service workers, you need to go to them, and not vice-versa.

In the larger picture, an ongoing pandemic that just keeps killing and killing, and is killing the poor and minorities in much higher numbers, is naturally going to lead to a tighter job market. While the rich have gotten a lot richer because of Covid, the long-term affect is going to be higher wages.

There will be attempts to avoid this, as with making homelessness illegal, mass-evicting people, then throwing them in prison and using prison labor, but even that has its limits, when there are just less people.

This is a lesson Europe learned during the Black Plague (the people who survived were treated much better than those who lived before), but Europe didn’t fuck up the Black plague deliberately because it was making rich people richer.

Our wealthy are fundamentally stupid in fairly awe-inspiring ways, because they’ve spent the last 40 years destroying the very environment they will need — social, economic, and physical — for their own future prosperity, and indeed, survival. They think their money will protect them from the wasteland they’re creating, but that’s a bad bet.

Oh, I guess the older ones weren’t stupid, but if you’re filthy rich and not at least 60, I wouldn’t be fucking up Covid, destroying the social fabric of the West by encouraging right-wing authoritarianism, destroying democratic legitimacy, and crashing biodiversity while screwing up the climate.

Might come back to bite you on the ass. If you actually care about your kids (obviously you hate everyone else’s kids), you might find all this foolish, too, if you weren’t someone whose only talent is making money by hurting other people.

Anyway, one of the few silver linings coming out of this will be increased wages, unless the rich and their politicians can move hugely to forced labor. Understand that forced labor is the play: That’s why they’re cutting benefits, to force people back to work. It just didn’t work. That’s why they’re criminalizing homelessness, and there will be more policies along this line.

You’re a unit of production, expected to work for poverty wages, and they want to keep it that way even during a plague, even if they have to force poor people to keep working and send your kids back to schools w/out masks or proper ventilation.

This is who the rich are. Who we are, as a group, is people who accept this or even support it.

Meanwhile, employers of low-wage workers should be asking governments to increase the minimum wage significantly ($24/hour in the US, minimum, with automatic increases based on cost of living), not to help workers, but to help themselves. They could ask for transition subsidies for a couple years, and most of them would be fine, and making more money.

But we’ve trained our employers to be idiots, concentrating only the bottom line and not the top line.


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China is “Totalitarian,” We Couldn’t Do Zero-Covid

Oh?

Here’s a report on how New Zealand handled their latest outbreak. Their contract tracers contacted 13,000 people and stopped 110 chains of transmission (in a week.) They tested ten percent of Auckland’s population in a week.

The outbreak has been going on for only ten days, which means they caught it early and jumped on it. They tested wastewater and found infections only in two cities; those two cities get a 14 day lockdown (because that’s the virus cycle) and the rest of the country ten days, which is long enough for anyone who has it to show symptoms.

There is some opposition, but overall support is very high. Communications are clear and not constantly changing and, most importantly, are backed by success: The government says what it will do, does it, and it works.

New Zealand is not yet high-vaccination. The doctor whose account I am summarizing notes that Taiwan has also done very well against Delta.

So, we now have accounts of three countries that have done well: China (yesterday’s post), New Zealand, and Taiwan. All used the same essential playbook: Jump hard on the first reports of infection, lockdown, and quarantine. China’s lockdown was more local than New Zealand’s but China is a much larger country.

China is totalitarian, and Taiwan and New Zealand are democracies, but they are all following essentially the same playbook, because it is the playbook that has been proven to work.

As with much of what is wrong in the world, Covid is a problem because we refuse to do the right things that we know work, and, in this case, that are proven to work.


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Herd Immunity & Multiple Covid Waves Is a Monstrous Policy

Folks, what your leaders are doing to you (us), and what many of you think is necessary or good, is monstrous. Long Covid in people aged 16-30.

Researchers at Haukeland University Hospital in Bergen, Norway, have followed 312 Covid-19 patients for an entire year. 247 of them home-isolated, while 65 were hospitalized.

The results of their study were recently published in an article in Nature Medicine.

At six months, 61 percent of all patients had persistent symptoms, the researchers found.

Among those who home-isolated, 52 percent still experienced various symptoms after half a year.

Only sixty days, rather than six months, total population, not just 16-30.

Our team just published a paper on this subject out of our Arizona cohort, led by Dr. Melanie Bell. We found that 60 days post-SARS-CoV-2 infection, a total of 77 percent of participants were still reporting symptoms. None were hospitalized for their infection. https://t.co/qDTMx9boMR

For all that we squeal about China, and bad, and fascist, and so on, here is the Chinese response to their latest “wave”. (We wouldn’t even call this a wave, the number of infections are so small. Remember, Chinese population is 1.4 Billion.)

China’s health authority reported on Monday that there were no new locally-transmitted cases of COVID-19 for the first time since July, offering more signs that the current outbreak which began late last month may be tapering off soon.

The latest outbreak was driven mainly by infections first detected among a few airport workers in the eastern city of Nanjing on July 20. Since then, more than 1,200 people in China have been confirmed to be infected.

The outbreak has spurred local authorities across the country to impose tough counter-epidemic measures including mass testing for millions of people to identify and isolate carriers, as well as treat the infected.

No one has died in the current outbreak, which has largely focused on the cities of Nanjing and Yangzhou in the province of Jiangsu, near the financial hub of Shanghai.

Across China, new local cases fell to the single-digits last week, after peaking in early August.

But over the weekend, Shanghai placed hundreds of people under quarantine after infections were found in cargo workers at one of its two airports, sparking concerns of a fresh outbreak in the city.

Shanghai has reported no new local infections since then. (my emphasis)

This is what properly done zero-Covid looks like. You quarantine, lock down when necessary, and so on.

On August 23, 2021 (one day), according to the New York Times, the US had over 150K new cases. During the entire last outbreak China had under 1,300.

The “Fascists” in China take better care of their people in a pandemic than the “free” Americans (or Canadians or Brits or Germans.) Even places like Australia have fucked up, because they do not properly quarantine or close soon enough when quarantine fails.

Covid is a test of nations, and virtually no western nations have passed. We are incapable of collective group action to protect our societies, even from a plague.

And because this is not the cold, because it cripples a lot of people for some period afterwards (we don’t know how many, or for how long, but we know it is not a trivial number) the idea of just letting multiple waves rip through society until everyone is sort of immune, even if that would work, is monstrous.

Indeed, because immunity to Covid, both from vaccines and from natural infection wanes over a period months, herd immunity as a policy probably won’t work; all that’s really going on is praying that eventually the dominant Covid strain becomes one that is mild, and then we just live with it.

Your lords and masters run societies in ways mean to kill you or hurt you terribly. They are acting worse than the totalitarian CCP.

As long as this set of elites stays in power in the developed world, you can expect you and those you care about will suffer and die, so long as it makes elites richer (which Covid does) or helping you inconveniences you (which is why enhanced employment benefits were cancelled in so many states when bosses whined).

It’s you, or it’s your elites. So far, in vast numbers, it is you.


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