The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Elementary School Covid Outbreaks in Ontario

So, for a couple years now, almost, I’ve been warning about schools and Covid.

In Ontario, teenagers can be vaccinated and children under 12 only became eligible November 24th.

Vaccines do reduce cases; children are not immune, and they do spread it to others.

Ontario’s overall policy has been deranged. Currently, large sporting events and casinos are operating. Before they were, R wasn’t over 1, now it is.

(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)

In any case, if you reside somewhere where children aren’t vaccinated and can reasonably, and you can legally keep your kids home, I’d do so unless the schools are properly ventilated (almost none of them are). Remember, again, that long-Covid is a thing, and could fuck you or someone you care about up for life, even if you don’t die from Covid.

Generally speaking, the most important thing is that Covid is airborne. Proper ventilation is a must. Buildings which just centrally recirculate air are delivering Covid directly to you, which is why most hotels aren’t a good place to quarantine people.

Personally, I’ve been keeping outside air circulation going where I live since Covid started, since otherwise I live in a central air building. Insufficient, but better than nothing.


Be well and be safe.




Fundraising Update: Slow, But Hit a Tier


Open Thread


  1. GlassHammer

    Some schools in the U.S. are still offering online programs but those are a pain for parents and suboptimal for the kids.

    I highly recommend a homeschooling program that has been approved for use in your state/County.

    And if your kids are in highschool, it’s never too early to enroll in online college courses which normally allow them to learn from home for a few hours of the day.

  2. Watt4Bob

    We’ve lost so many teachers in Minneapolis/St. Paul that they are offering rewards for new-hire substitute teachers.

    They’ll give you a new television if you apply.

    Both my wife and daughter taught last year, My wife at a private collage and my daughter at a public high school. Their experiences were generally miserable.

    The kids are taking advantage of every excuse offered by the pandemic in order to shirk responsibility for their education, and acting-out in accordance with the political bent of their parents.

    School administrators have been effectively outed as the useless careerists they are, and own at least half the blame for the misery endured by classroom teachers.

    Teachers are quitting in droves and who could blame them?

    What are we going to do when nurses decide they’ve had enough?

  3. Astrid

    A friend and her husband caught Covid from her daughter in early October. Both parents were double vaxed, mostly WFH, and did grocery pick up and outdoor dining to minimize risks. Daughter was supposedly scrupulous with her (non-N95) mask wearing. They have plenty of friends who got Covid and it seems to be a bummer but no big deal with that group

    We haven’t communicated since her announcement in October. I made the mistake of privately offering her my oximeter and zinc and ivermectin stash (with the caveat that while the efficacy is not fully understood, it’s highly unlikely to cause any harm at normal doses), so she probably thinks I’m a horse dewormer nutcase now.

    Ian mentioned that he doesn’t want to hear vaccine skepticism, so I understand if he doesn’t publish this comment. But given that the vaccines are not sterilizing and may not even reduce rate of spread for Delta and Omicron, why would vaccinating the under-16s make any difference for schooling? If I had kids (and I’m so grateful that I do not) I would definitely home school them.

    I’m thinking about taking ivermectin prophylactically for the Christmas vacation. My in-laws are the sort of careful that still loosely wears homemade masks and does indoor dining, and two of the family members will have taken a cross country flight the week before (I sent N95s, but I my in-laws didn’t bother wearing any of the 50 N95s I gave them in August).

  4. GlassHammer

    I will say that while last year’s online learning programs were awful for the kids and parents (because it was a chaotic mess to make online plans from scratch) improvements are being made just slowly, very slowly. So a year from now (if we are still in this a year from now) I think it might be sufficient for most parents and their kids.

  5. Art

    As far as hotel/ motels go almost all of the mid and low cost units use a dedicated, one room only, modular AC unit. Typically on an outside wall and under a window. Most recently built ( under 40 yo) hotels have gone this route because it makes individual room temperature control much easier and if an AC unit goes down you are only down one room; as opposed to an entire wing.

    The last hotel I stayed in with a central AC system was a large downtown facility in NOLA in the 80s.

    Best strategy IMHO is:
    Get everyone vaccinated to the extent allowed. I have the Moderna two-step and have a booster scheduled. If they have a second booster we will do that also.

    Wear a mask (N-95 much preferred) inside and where there are people.

    Meet people in sunshine. A local PhD in micro and specializing in virology suggests that the virus is highly vulnerable to UV and sunlight.

    Limit trips out and schedule trips to places likely to have crowds during off times. Around here Tuesday morning is an off-time. If you can talk to store managers most, so far, have been happy to suggest what days and times are least busy. They seem enthusiastic about people shifting to less busy days.

    Avoid unvaccinated people. Particularly indoors and in large groups. Recreational visits to random preschools and GOP conventions are off the itinerary. For sure a profoundly sad and heartfelt loss. LOL.

    Maintain good general mental and physical health. Go for a walk in the woods. Eat healthy. Exercise. Stay in touch with family and friends. Love on your furry friends. Get plenty of sleep.

  6. Adam Eran

    One interesting take on the whole thing: Michael Lewis’ The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

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