The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

America & Israel Don’t Get To Choose When The War Ends

So, Trump:

TRUMP SAYS “I THINK THE (IRAN) WAR IS VERY COMPLETE, PRETTY MUCH” – CBS REPORTER ON X, CITING AN INTERVIEW

Israel:

A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.
Talk of an endgame is early, and a decision about whether to stop the attacks rests largely with President Donald Trump, who continues to seek all-out victory. But in a telephone conversation Sunday, a senior Israeli official familiar with the planning and strategy for the Iran war discussed alternatives to Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.” The official requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the Iran situation.

and:

A senior Israeli official told The Washington Post: “For fear of an endless war, there is thinking of ending the war without toppling the regime.”

And this… not formally from Iran, but consistent with everything I’ve seen from them:

A senior Iranian political official: Trump is seeking, through intermediaries, to connect with us and Washington to end the war, but at the same time, he claims the opposite.

Trump states in interviews with American media that there is no specific timeline for ending the war, which contradicts the messages he is sending to us.

This American contradiction reflects a state of chaos and deep crisis that Trump is going through, where he has found himself in a major predicament without possessing a clear path out of this quagmire.

Tehran has firmly informed the intermediaries that it is not receiving any message from the American side and will not respond to it Iran has a firm and resolute stance with a strategic objective, which is not to respond to any initiative until the Zionist entity retreats and completely collapses after all the crimes it has committed in the region and the chaos it has caused in the world.

America and Israel are used to wars they can end any time they want. Afghanistan not worth it any more? Just leave. Israel wants a truce with Hezbollah? Make one then break it every single day.

They’re used to being so much stronger than their enemies that they can force a bad deal, or if they can’t, they can just walk away.

Not this time. They forgot that in a real war you either have to completely win or the other side has to agree to end the war.

General Mattis once said “No war is over until the enemy says it’s over. We may think it over, but in fact, the enemy gets a vote.”

Now here’s the problem Iran has, they can’t negotiate with the US.

I mean, they could go thru the motions: send some diplomats, talk about terms, but there is no deal the US (or Israel) has ever made with Iran which they’ve kept. Worse than that, during negotiations they’ve killed negotiators and leaders.

Not only is there no point in making a deal with the US or Israel, since they won’t keep them, doing so is dangerous. Negotiations are just a time for them to re-arm and find new targets.

Russia pointed this out years ago, calling the US “Agreement Incapable.” There’s no deal you can make with the US which they won’t break. This was true before Trump, but he’s ramped it up to eleven out of ten.

So Iran has to keep going. They have to win the war. What’s a win for them? Well, at the least, all US bases out of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. And now that they’ve taken out most of Israel and America’s radars:

Iran’s IRGC Aeroforce Commander: “From now on, no missile with a warhead lighter than 1 ton will be launched (against Israel). The frequency of launches, their intensity, and the scope of operations will increase significantly.”

And:

Iran Now quoting an Iranian military source: Trump’s claims that the war is nearing an end are a political illusion with no basis on the ground. Iran has categorically rejected all proposals for a ceasefire and says it will continue the war until its stated objectives are achieved. Any US attempt to occupy Iranian islands will face a severe and unexpected response, with consequences extending to countries hosting US military bases in the region.

Amusingly (but  unconfirmed):

Any Arab or European country that expels the Israeli and American ambassadors from its territories will be granted full authorization and freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow.

Then, of course, there is the election of the new Supreme leader: the previous leader’s son. Remember that his parents, his wife and his children were all killed. In fact, previous to Trump saying that he was unacceptable, what I had heard is that he was unlikely to be elected: even his father had been against it. But, as with Carney in Canada, Trump’s “endorsement” had an effect.

Iran let the US and Israel off the hook during the twelve day war. The US asked for a cease-fire and they agreed, then the US and Israel came back and tried again.

Iran must, and its leaders personally must, if they don’t want to be assassinated, win this war so decisively that neither Israel nor America will even think about attacking them again. Then, if the new leader is wise, they’ll get some nukes.

This war is, I suspect, far from over. This time America has really fucked around, and it’s really going to find out. Nor are the majority of its allies going to be happy about this as they run out of oil, gas and fertilizer. Further east-Asians have now realized that US bases don’t protect your country, they only make it a target. This is going to reign hell of the willingness of other nations to militarily cooperate with America.

Good chance this is America’s last big war. They’ll push around some Lat. Am countries, but this is it. If it isn’t their last big war, they’ll regret it, there’s no possibility now of winning a war with China or Russia.

 

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32 Comments

  1. spud

    it looks like china and north korea were ready and willing to respond if nukes were used. also it came as a shock that it looks like russia came aboard later, most likely reluctantly, but they knew it had to be done, but that may have been the final blow.

    with Lebanon not only fighting off the fascists, but also invading unhindered northern Israel, must have been a shocker.

    india is toast, its alone, viewed as a backstabber. now okinawa has a lot of islands, if i lived there. i would move to the farthest one from the main island.

    the Philippines better start remembering how they were treated by the empire. south korea better remember that they used to be one country, and lets make nice till we are one again.

    japan better make nice and apologize for some of japans latest verbal abuse.

    Egypt better grow some balls and put pressure from the southwest. jordan is toast.

    the G-7 is about to employ the printing press at full speed to keep the stock market afloat, and GDP from falling. nether the stock market or GDP have little to do with the real economy.

    the bootlickers have no real idea how to respond any other way, and it looks like the public and the real economy is underwhelmed over the announcements, panic is setting in.

    iran better exercise their strength brutally. and get nukes.

  2. Mark Level

    QED. Trump was always an incoherent weather-vane in a hurricane, but now his at cross-purposes statements and diktats look more and more like a schizophrenic homeless person on the corner screeching at passers-by.

    Good on general Mattis. These people know the reality of war, unlike the clowns who let them run wild in Congress and the Senate. (But the person who claimed the handsome Generals would save us from Trump remains wrong. In fact, Trump has been firing anyone who’s acting in an autonomous-looking way inside the Military. I think those who see this as a plan to prevent a “Steal” (sic) in the midterms, obviously the desperate hope is to create a steal for the R’s, EAIAC.) Also, Due Dissidence covered yesterday that while the Dimmie Elected’s deplore ICE, they’re known to invest heavily in Palantir, can’t resist profiteering off of genocide and failed wars– now that Donnie denied his claims in 3 previous election cycles that he doesn’t do “failed wars.” In reality, he does failed businesses, failed relationships, and failed wars.

    Things the Donald is saying at the same time:

    I will only accept an unconditional surrender; and additionally having a role in choosing the next Supreme Leader. (Latter already failed.)

    We are not at war!! Trumpy spox people like Mike Johnson say that.

    “The War is very complete, pretty much” when earlier he bragged “I’m not bored, I don’t get bored” (with genocide, failed wars, Epstein antics.)

    Carolyn Leavitt was asked on Faux News by Maria Bartilomo if a Draft was being prepared, and she bragged the President “never takes anything off the table.” (Related news: somebody reported being in a Unit where suddenly nearly a dozen soldiers started smoking weed and were kicked out. He thought they wouldn’t smoke pot once freed. And let’s not forget the Colorado Congresscritter who joined 2 ICE-style thugs in violently assaulting a 42-year old Marine in the Senate when he simply stated, loud and clear, Americans don’t want to die for Israel, and broke his arm for shits and giggles.)

    Meantime their Arab Dynastic Dictatorships are making noise about heading for the exits. And I assume that for the time being, profiteers from both sides of the aisle are making bank. The first real Arab Spring removal since Assad in Syria was the Bahrain dictator, in exile abroad. Bahrain has a Shi’a population of nearly 50%, and when the city’s big targets were getting hit, they filmed it and whooped with gladness. (Just as that small group of Israelis were seen dancing gleefully when the Twin Towers came down.)

    Oh, and a correction: The other day I couldn’t recall the other big “guest worker” group beyond the Thais excluded from Zionist bomb shelters. It’s the Indians. So Modi’s recent fellatio of Netanyahu on a visit was truly sick and showed hate toward his own populace.

    DD did another piece on the Bomb Shelters. Arabs, even citizens, are refused access despite the “Universal Law”. There are over 1,000 bomb shelters in Israel, only 11 in Arab neighborhoods. Just over 12% of Haifa residents are Arab, generally refused protection.

    They complained and were told if they paid 50,000 Euros they could have a “private” one for them built. (If any survive the current war.) This was well covered by a Spanish reporter on sight, and before she even finished, her Studio “got the call”, the 2 speakers there called what she was saying a lie, and “disinformation”, shut her right down.

  3. Feral Finster

    I suspect that this is a *clever* ploy to get oil prices and the stock market under control.

  4. Nat Wilson Turner

    @Feral Finster thanks for the belly laugh! Keep clinging to that log as it goes over the shoot.

  5. Mary

    ‘I suspect that this is a *clever* ploy to get oil prices and the stock market under control’

    You are correct sir.

    I had a comment going about how maybe Putin did actually put down some red lines but before my comment was complete the rhetoric had changed. The war will last at least another week but maybe even longer even though we’ve already won, blah blah blah.

    Gas price was momentarily down, stocks were up.

    How much money ‘was made’ in even that short period?

  6. Feral Finster

    If you look at oil prices, the apocalypse was averted, at least for now.

    These kinds of stupid “will I won’t I” games are Trump specialty.

    And believe me, I’d love to be wrong.

  7. mago

    There’s no cure for stupid.
    There’s no getting around it.
    We’re all losers in this game.

    I’ve been in one place too long with my boots in solid air and now I’m gone, sadly gone. . .

  8. Eric Anderson

    Now, the domestic war begins. The christo-fascist MAGAs need to be so fully defeated, discredited and shamed that they climb back into the hell-hole they came from and pull a rock over the top for cover.

    Then, we drag the billionaires by their $1000 haircuts and stuff them into the same.

  9. Seattle Resident

    @MarkLevel

    That was GOP (Grand Old Prejudice and prime enablers of the present fascism) Senator Tim Sheehy from Montana, who had the unmitigated gall to break that Marine’s arm.

    I do fear that these psychopaths are going to go haymaker nuke(s) when the
    interceptors run out. My question is if the Russians and or the Chinese have communicated to the US/ Israel that they will likely provide similar backup to the Iranians should they go down that road?

  10. Some Guy

    I’m not sure Iran will win so convincingly Ian, but time will tell. Certainly, if they choose to, I believe they can keep the Strait closed, and that damage will get bigger and bigger with every day that passes.

    But, let’s be generous to the US/Isreal side and assume they are able to walk away some time in the next week or two and Iran agrees to cease hostilities.

    I think it is worth nothing, even in that (best case for US/Israel) scenario, just how different this Middle Eastern adventure will be compared to past ones. In the past, the US literally brought in, supplied and defended full on ground troops for years, in both Iraq and in Afghanistan.

    But even the craziest neocon warhawks aren’t imagining a full on ground invasion – that ship has sailed. So the whole episode makes clear that the US has fallen far in its ability to project force into the MIddle East compared to previous decades – the only question that remains, is just how far is far.

  11. bruce wilder

    This is Netanyahoo’s War; Trump is just his butler after all. I expect Trump does want the War to end, and is ready as always to declare that it has ended in the best deal ever, before a Global Economic and Financial Crisis ensues. But, does Netanyahoo want the war to end? And, how would Netanyahoo want his war — the war he has worked for, for over 30 years — to end? By Ian’s dubious criteria for “wise”, Netanyahoo is wise — he (reportedly) has nuclear weapons. I have no idea how he would use them, under what circumstances or to what ends. I fear we all may find out.

    The strategy and tactics of this war — ongoing for several years at least — have been Israel’s. The exploding pagers, the decapitation strikes, detaching Somaliland as a base opposite the Houthis, even the overthrow of Assad in Syria had a large Israeli contribution. The U.S. has acted like a ventriloquist’s dummy, mouthing the words, but there is little evidence of an American strategy in play. Netanyahoo has his hand up Charlie McCarthy’s ass: his allies control the Congress and U.S. elections, his allies control much of American news Media and social Media. Epstein was Israel’s guy. I cannot reject the hypothesis that Israel assassinated Charlie Kirk, if only because Bibi denied it twice. Israel has been highly successful in neutralizing the Arab monarchies and Türkiye over a long period of sustained effort. This has not been a short plan.

  12. Mary

    ‘These kinds of stupid “will I won’t I” games are Trump specialty.’

    The administration specialty.

    Stephen Miller writes most of Trump’s tweets.

    Steve Feinberg runs the DOD.

    It’s an intentional strategy of ambiguity. Trump actually plays his part well. This is slammed as frightening incompetence but the administration is fine with it:

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-trump-sidesteps-responsibility-for-deadly-strike-on-iranian-girls-school

    He just pieces together some things Miller or someone told him just before he goes on and he mixes it with something he may remember from one of the operational meetings he’s let in on.

    Ultimately, Trump is acting, he has always been acting. Trump is completely controlled and he lknows it and they know it.

    Trump can be removed rather easily if need be. He serves their purposes pretty well for now.

    https://youtu.be/voZmxaeYMoQ?t=48

    What a long long time ago. I imagine Norm didn’t know about the kompromat.

    ***

    Facism: A system of government marked by centralization of authority under a dictator, a capitalist economy subject to stringent governmental controls, violent suppression of the opposition, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism.

    ‘violent suppression of the opposition, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism’

    This doesn’t make sense when you add the little variable of ‘Israel’ to the equation.

    The typical example of a facist state doesn’t include one that is thoroughly occpied by another state and operating at practically all levels at the occupying stata’s behest.

    German ‘education’ and laws under the Nazis didn’t include a special carveout for the Romani.

    The Romani – and all minority groups including obviously Jews and any groups whatsoever that didn’t support the German state ideology at that time were persecuted.

    That’s the popular story anyway. So that then is the popularly accepted definition of a facist state.

    No other minority group has the power that the organized Jewish community has in the US.

    The organized Jewish community (not all ‘the Jews’) has more power than any other entity within the US. If you wanted to look at it from a religious angle the organized Jewish community has more power than all the other religious groups combined.

    One Of Stephen Miller’s Old Tweets Has Resurfaced After Trump’s Attacks On Iran—And It’s Aged Like Milk

    ‘To anyone still gullible enough to fall for scummy media hoaxes: Trump said warmongering neocons love sending your kids to die for wars they would never fight themselves. Liz Cheney is Kamala’s top advisor. Liz wants to invade the whole Middle East.’

    https://www.comicsands.com/miller-harris-trump-iran-tweet

    You see, they are just fucking with you. The Bush-Cheney administration was so Zionized it’s hard to know where to begin.

    Irving Lewis Libby ran Dick Cheney.

  13. Tallifer

    Peace with America ad Israel would suit the Revolutionary Guard fine: they ca go back to murdering their own people in the streets and dungeons.

  14. Feral Finster

    And just like clockwork:
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-netanyahu-says-strikes-breaking-040952456.html?.tsrc=1340&ncid=crm_-1285232-20260310-725–A&bt_user_id=ENgKOaAzy1OGFxr0iVNqdT2TdB3JxYKihmUxFT84PR9fjdLT35TGEP7krbMNKQC8Yu9rhaHbis6UPBBgzhoFo2%2B07ZZPv1P7tqy8z75%2Bp9CdglNz7Ogwic1Ylzkv1ED%2B&bt_ts=1773148668543

  15. Mark Level

    Thanks, SR, I did name Tim Sheehy in a prior post on this, ably covered by Due Dissidence. And when that coward ran away after breaking the Marine’s arm, when a crowd member (likely Anthony Aguilar, who was present) repeated at least twice, “He just broke a Marine’s arm!” then additionally called Timmy a coward as he scuttled by.

    Bruce Wilder has the best, most detailed post, yes, it’s right in the open. “Mary” makes good points as well.

    And Tallifer returns with their usual Comedy Gold. Just spits back Hasbara from Israel and the US State Department undigested, like a certain LAS.

  16. Mark Level

    Breaking news: in the last 24 hours Bahrain’s Oil Company declared “force majeur.” They will fulfill few, local commitments to provide oil on hand. The spigot is off. One step closer to global Depression, and pressure for Netanyahu/Trump to back the fuck off.

  17. marku

    Local status. I stand on a busy street corner with my “No War” sign, and wave at cars.

    I get about 30-40 thumbs up or happy honks, once in a while a thumbs down or “fucking idiot”

    In a blue corner of a red county in SW OR

  18. different clue

    @Eric Anderson,

    That is the right general attitude and correct approach. Bipartisan liberal cucks and kumbaya pacifist cucks would disagree, of course.

    How to carry it out in actual practice and detail? Different groups/people will have different approaches. The different TAGs should respect eachother and eachothers’ TOCs and just do what they do without the egotistical poaching of members and supporters from eachother. Let the different groups do their different things and let Darwin sort them out. ( Of course we can all spend a comment or two or three criticizing or condemning a point of view and its supporting groupload of people if we think they have worked out badly. Everyone else does and I will too from time to time).

    Here is my different thing. I will vote Blue no matter Who in 2026 to try expanding a cleared-of-Republicans space to move around in and do things in. If Republicans are minoritized enough, that buys some space and time for people to invent something better than the current Clintobamacrats to work through. People who think they can conquer and declintaminate the DemParty should be left alone to try and do that. Let Darwin bless any success they might have in that regard.

    As this whole post expands upon, once you step into a bear trap, you don’t get to decide when the bear trap opens it, or what the owner decides to do about you in his/her bear trap. The only way the US can walk away from this one is by gnawing its own foot off and limping away at best.

    So, supposing that one thing the IranGov will try to keep doing will be to keep oil shortaged enough to keep the prices rising, what can members of the Blue Team inside America do to leverage that IranGove strategy? Waste as much oil and oil product as possible in every possible way so as to make any shortages even more shortaged. The goal should be to make life impossible in Trump Country, and even compromise bare human survival in Trump Country if possible. And keep that level of price torture and survival-compromise in place till the smart people all start fleeing Trump Country and the long-term depopulation of Trump Country begins and speeds up.

    Those parts of America which vote Gilead Christianazi MagaKlan in 2026 , after everything that they have seen happen, should be targeted for special boycott and avoidance. I would hope our Canadian and other Foreign Friends looking on would see the Civil Cold War nature of unfolding events here and decide to devote special boycott attention to the Klan Maganazi counties and congressional district areas, so as to weaken that side. But that is up to them how they decide to understand, analyze and intervene into our domestic affairs here . . . or not.

    NaziKlan MAGAmerica needs to be depopulated and weakened enough that it is reduced to a tiny rumpload of Congressional districts and a few lonely Senators. Its influence within American politics and culture has to be burned down and cauterized.

  19. John

    When you construct a machine which has no limits to its acceleration and no brakes, you can be quite sure it will destroy itself in one way or another. When there is a relationship between or among nations in which there are no limits on the requests or demands or diktats, you can be quite sure it will destroy itself in one way or another.

  20. elkern

    I dunno. Israel’s goal in this war is pretty clear: to end Iran’s ability to support Palestinians or otherwise resist Israeli expansion. They might accept a puppet regime, but completely wrecking the state of Iran would be preferable.

    The Islamic State of Iran is powerful today largely because they inherited a technologically advanced society from the former Shah – and then chose to keep it going. If they had torn down the universities in a fit of religious zeal – like the Taliban did – then Iran would not have been able to provide Hamas and Hezbollah with modern weapons.

    Reinstating the Pahlavi “Dynasty” (only 2 monarchs, barely 50 years) would just invite another Revolution, so it provides only temporary protection for Israel.

    Destroying the economic, technological, political, and social infrastructure of Iran would provide somewhat longer insurance for Israel. This is exactly what was done to Iraq, Syria, and Libya; it will be decades before any of those countries can rebuild to the point where they could independently design, build, and deploy modern weapons. This is Israel’s Plan A for Iran also.

    US motivations are far less clear. ALL of the ‘justifications’ for the US attack on Iran are blatant BS – the inconsistency of the excuses reinforces this. Yeah, sure, breaking Iran would postpone China’s plans to build railroads to Africa, but there’s no sign that the US (esp current admin/regime) is capable of the long-term planning and action to exploit any such “success”. It’s pretty obvious that we’re just following Israel’s lead in Iran (Rubio’s explanation is the least false!). Our laughable campaign finance “laws” have allowed Zionists to fill Congress with puppets; and Trump can’t resist the ghosts of Sheldon Adelson and Jeffrey Epstein.

    But Trump isn’t an “honest politician”; he doesn’t stay bought. Is he ornery enough to remind Bibi that bribery and blackmail have limits? If he comes to see that continuing the attacks will just piss off his fans, he’s quite likely to cut some kind of deal.

    Unfortunately, that just makes Israel’s policy of decapitation more important. They will keep killing leaders and negotiators precisely because that leaves no one for Trump to deal with.

    Trump might still just “declare Victory and go home”. The surviving Iranian military Command structure *might* let him get away with it, tacitly refocusing their attacks on Israel. Trump could make that more likely by (slowly?) withdrawing US military assets in the region; Congress would scream & holler, but I’d bet that 70% of voters would cheer. (note: US oil majors might not like it, but Trump would view that as payback for their insufficiently enthusiastic response to his Venezuela adventure)

    The big question, of course, would be the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran allows some traffic through – likely starting with Chinese-flagged ships? – global Oil Markets will stop holding their breath. Trump would crow about oil prices coming down from whatever peak they hit (“Victory!”).

    Ah, well, maybe this is just my terminal optimism is acting up again. The quickest cure for that would be Israeli nukes.

  21. responseTwo

    American hubris is finally realizing its a “loser”.

  22. different clue

    Here is a Black content creator’s video about why Black America will do nothing in support of this war or its aims. That will be a further crack opening in the American Domestic Front.

    ” Black People Are Not Responding. Here’s 6 Reasons Why ”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3sQsBucW_E

    How unanimous is this view throughout Black America? I don’t know. Time will tell.

  23. Mark Level

    So Hegseth and the other insecure 7th graders who run the Admin put out a White House “video” stealing from Tropic Thunder, Breaking Bad, Top Gun, some comics, and other drek to illustrate Donny’s amazing “Victory.”

    Obama was shite but at least he graduated from middle school, wouldn’t have pulled this kind of absurd shit. This is from a humor Lib website, I have to say I can’t believe how far underground the Trump Cult is.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isyt89VgsMg

  24. Carborundum

    I don’t think this will really get to a cessation of hostilities with clear winners and losers. My best guess would be that the US and Israel will try to get to some state that they can pass off as some sort of “victory”. Iran, on the other hand, really seems to have been trying to conserve capability and is thinking about how they maintain deterrence in the immediate neighbourhood / homeland (the big thing out of the past couple of years is how their strategic perimeter has contracted). I think they will perceive their strategic imperative as getting one last painful lick in to demonstrate that fucking with them has higher costs than has thus far been apparent. In their shoes, I’d take a real hard run at shipping.

  25. KT Chong

    • The official statement from Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to Trump: We, not you, decide when the war ends…

    Al Jazeera: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6rNjIp8h6I

    • Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz:

    CNN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kUzY72GZ0I

    i.e., no one is coming in… or leaving. Ever. Iran is going full scorch earth.

  26. mago

    Peace on earth
    Good will to man
    Glory to the new born king

    Sorry. Christmas is gone and Easter’s yet to arise.

    Wake me up when lions lie with lambs and forked tongued demons drop their evil ways. In the meantime I’ll keep on sleeping and dreaming of better days and better ways while I’m busy dying.

    Probably better to leave it and not hit send, but I never learned nothing about anything anyway.

    May darkness turn to light, and may all those battling with weapons have a playful exchange of flowers. (Quoting Shantideva.)

    Lights out. Sleep tight. Don’t let the bedbugs bite. Good night Marie.

  27. Poul

    My take on the oil price is that the $120 per barrel was the panic stage – buy anything available. But when the strategic reserves were released prices went down again. However that is only for a short time. The reserves cover around 21-30 days of export from the Gulf and the closer we get to them expiring the higher the price will be. As you can only release reserves once.

    If the war is still on in a month $120+ will be back until we hit demand destruction levels.

  28. different clue

    Here is an interesting article from the Independent called: ” Putin gives Trump easy way out of confused Iran war strategy – and he might take it
    As Donald Trump delivers bafflingly mixed messages about the end of the Iran war, he has suggested he may lift oil sanctions on Russia, but that will suit only one man – Vladimir Putin. World affairs editor Sam Kiley asks: whose side is the US president really on?”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/putin-trump-iran-war-oil-sanctions-russia-ukraine-b2936030.html

    What would Putin have to offer to the IranGov to induce it to accept any such a thing?
    Perhaps extending the IranGov quiet time and support to keep the war going longer in order to achieve deeper attrition and degradation of various American military and civil capabilities?

    There was an interesting comment deep in this item’s thread which I will copy-paste offer here for people who might not wish to read that far.
    “andrew5500
    Putin doesn’t want Trump to flounder too soon, before his admin can finish wrecking the foundation and reputation of the US permanently.

    An administration full of people Putin can extort with Epstein videos only comes around once in a while, after all. Trump’s fuckups risk putting a new generation of non-compromised Democrats in power for decades, and Putin really doesn’t want that.
    u/_L_R_S_ avatar
    _L_R_S_

    15h ago
    Strategically this is gold dust for Putin. They had already lost influence in the region when Syria collapsed, but Iran is not Syria. There is no rebellion or rebel groups. The Kurds are a non-starter. THey have zero influence or support beyond their tribal areas.

    If Iran was going to fall, it would have fallen. Iran was never going to fall to revolution as long as the people are fed, watered and kept in check by the security regime. Putin knew this and he can play the long game supporting the new Iranian leader, because unlike Trump neither of them have elections to worry about.

    Putin gains billions from the rise in oil prices.

    The only minor downside is the inability of Iran to support Russia’s war economy in the short term. Putin can live with that.

    It also allows Putin to come onto the world stage and pretend to me a mediator. The deep irony of that.

    The USA and the utter morons and sycophants Trump has around him have achieved the following.

    Replaced a bad leader in Iran with a much worse leader who is going to live longer.

    Massively harmed Middle East economies in the very states they need as allies.

    Harmed global trade and the global economy.

    Boosted Russia.

    Alienated even more of their NATO allies for no reason other than social media likes from their base.

    Made the Iranian air force and navy utterly impotent. They were just impotent before, but at least now they’re totally impotent. Combined with hugely frustrating their nuclear ambitions what were apparently “obliterated” months ago when they attacked last time.

    This will go down as one of the most disastrous and stupid political and military strategic decisions of all time.

    Trump wants a legacy. He’s got it now. ”

    What if Trump really has been a Russian asset all along, even though Hillary said he was?

  29. different clue

    And speaking of Iran, here from the InterestingAsFuck subreddit is some audio-video shot in Tehran titled: “Randomly asking people out in Tehran – a look at everyday life you rarely see in the news”

    https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1rqoip0/randomly_asking_people_out_in_tehran_a_look_at/

  30. someofparts

    Getting it right and getting right to the point, as usual. Posts like this are the reason I’ve kept checking in here, lo these many years. Thanks Ian.

    It’s odd to hear talk about what Trump or Israel are going to do, as if they were still calling the shots. Folks are in a Wylie E. Coyote moment, and are in for a shock when they look down.

  31. TSC

    How can US even expect a ceasefire from a person when they just killed
    his

    Father: Ali Khamenei

    Wife: Zahra Haddad-Adel reported killed in the initial bombardment.

    Son: Mohammad Bagher, Mojtaba’s teenage son, was also a victim of the strike.

    Mother: Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, died from her injuries on March 2, 2026.

    Sister, Hoda Khamenei, brother-in-law Mesbah Bagheri Kani, and a 14-month-old niece were also killed.

    And Mojtaba Khamenei himself was reportedly wounded in his legs and arms.

    Imagine yourself in his place. I would fight to death against the aggressors.

  32. different clue

    @TSC,

    You may be right. But the Islamic Republic leadership collectives have been very coldly pragmatic in playing the Long Game.

    I suspect Ayatollah Khomeini felt very deeply bitter against Saddam Hussein but when the time came that there was no other way out, he agreed to “drink from this poison chalice”.

    The chance exists that if Ayatollah Khamenei and the IranGov achieves a satisfactory level of genuine enduring victory before “the death” has been reached, that he may accept it. But the victory would have to be very real and far-reaching.

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