If you’re getting a bit tired of Iran all the time, so am I. We’ll see if we can slip in an article on something else.
In the meantime, Trump hit Iran’s nuclear enrichment site. As best as I can tell, the attack was ineffective and did essentially no damage. Even if it had, Iran’s highly enriched, 60 percent stockpile had already been moved. I’ve seen Israel claims they know where it was moved, but there’s a good chance they’re lying. If the Iranians are smart, they’ve split it up, and made sure that only a few people know where each package is, and further that no one knows where all the packages are, which doubles as, “If you hit it, you lose your spy.”
Iran’s parliament has passed a motion asking to close the Straits of Hormuz; it’s waiting for Khameini’s approval. Some ships appear to be already turning away. Parliament is also planning to vote to end Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Agency, which is exactly the right thing to do, as they’re both politicized and almost certainly spy for the Israelis and Americans. At least make your enemies work to get data on your secure nuclear sites and scientists.
Given the US couldn’t even stop the Houthi blockade, there is zero chance they can re-open the Straits of Hormuz with military force. It will stay closed as long as Iran wants it to. Among other things, very few civilian shipping companies are going to take the chance. One missile or mine is all it takes.
It should go without saying that Trump’s strike is a direct violation of international law, which requires the approval of the U.N. Security Council to declare war. Honored more often in the breach, etc. This is yet another nail in the coffin of the idea that anyone should pay even the least attention to international law, as the countries that created it sure don’t.
Meanwhile, the missiles keep raining down on Israel. While firm data is hard to get, I’m almost certain the “Iron” Dome” is not stopping most of them. Indeed, the WSJ reports that Israel is interested in peace.
Iran shouldn’t give it to them without conditions. They have the upper hand. At the least, they should demand a withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to the bombing there, and an end to the food and supplies blockade in Gaza, with immediate retaliation when they break the deal, which they always do.
A lot of my predictions about the Middle East have been wrong since October 7th. There are two reasons: I didn’t realize how cripplingly cautious the “Resistance” was (other than Hamas and Ansar-Allah), and I underestimated Mossad’s and American’s intelligence penetration of both — especially of Hezbollah. Fortunately, Israel has been at pains to teach everyone a lesson, and a lot of the overly-cautious Hezbollah and Iranian leaders are now dead.
There were a number of reasons for the intelligence penetration. One was that India’s intelligence was working with Mossad and had (has?) a huge network of spies in both the Indian tech diaspora and guest workers. The second is that Iran, in particular, has used Western tech — especially Western phones. (Admittedly, everyone runs Android or IOS, so it’s hard to avoid.)
Israel’s signals intelligence division (SIGINT), called Unit 8200 had been monitoring these targets for over a decade, compiling detailed itineraries — homes, workplaces, travel routes, and even bedroom locations. The precision of Operation Namiya (June, 2024) relied on a triple-layered surveillance ecosystem: Apple devices and unencrypted iPhones provided real-time GPS tracking.
General Soleimani’s 2020 assassination had already proven this vulnerability, yet Iranian officials continued using them. They also used Google/Microsoft Services: Gmail accounts, Cloud backups, and Android devices leaked metadata, revealing behavioral patterns and social graphs.
Regarding telecom backdoors: Iran’s telecom infrastructure, built on Ericsson (which exited in 2012 under sanctions) and Nokia hardware, remained vulnerable. Huawei and ZTE briefly replaced Western vendors between 2012 and 2016, but by 2018, Iran resumed purchases from European suppliers -— a fatal regression.
It’s clear that any country which doesn’t want similar issues has to rely on entirely non-Western tech from a trusted supplier — and even then, as revealed by the Hezbollah pager attack (which is really what defeated Hezbollah, along with knowledge of their missile stockpile locations), you have to secure the entire supply chain, including delivery, then check like a paranoid, because you have enemies.
It’s best to own your entire own tech stack, and a LOT of countries are going to be working feverishly towards this. Using Western tech this way is a great way to destroy markets for Western tech.
It should go without saying that every Western country is fatally compromised. The US knows everything they do. Even as a Canadian, I would want to get to a domestic stack, and Europeans are fools if they don’t, unless they intend to remain American satrapies for the rest of time.
Iran has finally thrown off its caution. I pray they don’t revert. They’re winning this war, and they shouldn’t let up until Israel is publicly humiliated and forced to actually stop their constant provocations and genocide.
As for TACO Trump, he wants the war over, and his attack was a PR stunt so he could declare victory and flex US muscles, worthlessly. I don’t think he has the guts for a real war, which is a good thing. (I could, of course, be wrong. The problem with Trump is that even he doesn’t know what he’s actually going to do most of the time. It is also amusing to watch Vance doing everything he can to distance himself from the attack, in preparation for running in 2028.)
Update: Iran says it has bombed Iraq, Qatar, Bahrein, and Kuwait US military bases.
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Z
Iran got the advantage at this point in time because the US of Israel has temporarily underestimated their capabilities and … hopefully … their gumption.
Iran shouldn’t stop until Israel is destroyed because giving them any kind of pause and Israel and their rabid attack Rottweiler, the US, will only regroup and learn from their previous mistakes and undoubtedly come at Iran again in some manner … almost certainly using asymmetric warfare, as they always do … but this time more effectively.
There is no peace to be had with ethno-supremacists who believe that God has granted them power over you by any means necessary and detest your right to exist free of their subjugation. So, why pull off of them when you know you are eventually going to get sucker punched if you do? Finish the job before they finish you.
Z
Jan Wiklund
Sorry, the comment should be
Who is WSJ?
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About that WSJ article — Israel wants peace like a PETA member wants a mink coat. The temerity. The audacity.
Huckabee has been very concerned about Americans being able to evacuate Israel. Too bad. I’m pleased they are stuck there and Bibi is effectively holding them hostage so they can all be voluntary or involuntary human shields.
In fact, I am all for deporting to Israel all those in America with dual Israeli-American citizenship so they can be Bibi’s human shields as well. Let’s throw in all the Neocons too like Bill Kristol who still, after all these years, have some manner of influence and honey pots like The Bulwark continue to keep Dems tacking to the center right until progressive is in fact center.
Now, for a little nostalgia considering it’s pertinent. Remember this? I do. Like it was yesterday because, in fact, it is yesterday and we are back to the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bnpTK5mgZQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_4cg6GgorQ
Ian Welsh
Wall Street Journal
Feral Finster
“Iran has finally thrown off its caution.”
I have seen no evidence of this. Anyway, since Iran didn’t respond, Trump now is talking regime change.
If the victim doesn’t respond to provocations, that’s simply an invitation to hit harder.
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We have to ask, how does Trump expect Iran to respond or better yet, in what way and in what manner does Trump want Iran to respond? Or does that change by the day and hour like everything else with him?
Seriously, what does Trump want? He believes he has destroyed Iran’s nuclear program and presumably that was what the negotiations were about so what is left to negotiate? In his plaque-entangled mind?
We know Donny Dove didn’t really destroy Iran’s nuclear capability but according to Donny Dove’s Troof (versus Tweet), it’s mission accomplished.
Maybe he wants to build Trump properties in Tehran and he wants a gold-plated 787 versus a 747 and he wants Khamenai to do what Rubio has done and become his bitch and praise him and prostrate himself before the great leader of the world.
marku52
Cornered Trump could be very dangerous. Nothing in his second term has gone well. The tariff gambit blew up in his face. Instead of coercing use of the USD, the USD is falling as central banks flee it. His gestapo de-immigration force is achieving little, because he is exempting enforcing employment law on his big donor employers. He has not ended the UKR war in a day or even 100. His Big Beautiful Bill is in trouble because even some Pubs noticed it will absolutely explode the deficit. Debt financing is already bigger than the sacred defense budget, and as short term notes are refinanced, this will only get worse. We don’t even talk about annexing Canada or Greenland any more.
And if Iran closes the gulf??? Interesting times. A cornered Donny will lash out. Where? He has already started to splinter his alliance by attacking Massie and Paul, which will not sit well with MAGA.
Feral Finster
The United States attacked Fordow again this AM, so let’s please once and for all ditch the idea that this is a fake attack carried out for optics.
The United States and Israel see Iranian indecision and they smell blood.
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https://imgur.com/a/RT23uQO
Propaganda, anyone? They are trying to paint Khamenei as Hitler hiding in his bunker or Saddam Hussein hiding in his spider hole. They’re false comparisons but that matters not to the intended audience that laps it up.
Can you imagine being locked down in a bunker with Donny Dove for any length of time and you’re the one in charge of changing his diaper and preparing his McDonalds Happy Meals as the ground above you rumbles and roils? What a hell that would be or, we can always hope, will be. I think it would be great, if not gross, to see Rubio quite literally change Donny’s diapers in the bunker. Little Marko already does it figuratively but that’s no substitute for the real thing. Ain’t nothin’ like the real thing, baby.
Feral Finster
@marku52:
Don’t kid yourself. MAGA is first and foremost, a cult of personality. Emphasis on the word “cult”. No matter what Trump does, they are for it.
Trump could convert to Twelver Shiism and they would make their daughters wear headscarves. Trump could start touting the blessings of eating pet food and there would be a run on Alpo.
A human I know worked for public health during the pandemic and when Trump made his “bleach speech”, the phone lines were lit up with people asking questions, like “what’s the best brand of bleach to inject?” “where do I get needles?” “how much bleach should I use?”
Yes, I know Trump didn’t exactly advocate shooting up bleach, but some members of his cult thought so. Hell, the veterinary supply stores had to put up signs warning people that horse meds are not for use in humans.
Ian Welsh
About 90% sure they didn’t do enough damage to get the centrifuges. Iran was just being cautious in case the attack succeeded.
KT Chong
America is gonna be hit by a false-flag terrorist attack (if not a series) to drum up American support for the war on Iran. People need to know and be prepared so they won’t be manipulated and whipped into a frenzy.
Planter of Trees
As Douglas Adams once said, the purpose of the [galactic] president is not to wield power but to draw attention away from it. It doesn’t matter all that much what Zaphod Beeblebrox wants, what really matters is what the technocrats around him want, and what the imperial state needs.
It also matters what the Iranians really want. A lot of people are expecting the IRGC’s newly promoted leadership to rally, clean house, and counterattack. However, they have also lost a lot of old hands who remember the revolution and what debts the U.S. and Israel really owe.
Over the last year it’s appeared to me as if the IRGC leadership were being systematically sold out to Mossad by civillian leaders who’d just like to get back to making money, please. The West’s reported electronic intelligence might knock some holes in that hypothesis, although that could be parallel construction.
Iran’s diffidence in committing to a Russian alliance, revealed by Putin at the St. Pburg forum the other day, suggests that Iranian higher-ups were trying to hedge until an (illusory) normalization with the US/IS/Gulfies could be negotiated. Anyway, Khamanei seems to have finally woken up from his nap, so maybe action will be taken.
One last note: the BRICS strategic calculus is that the U.S. is very likely to go nuclear if pushed too far. Therefore, they and their proxies are playing for time at all costs. Their hope is that they can pry grandpa’s hands off the steering wheel without him crashing through the guardrail, as he has repeatedly threatened. It’s painstaking and might take the rest of our lives.
Soredemos
Sorry, but as of right now the Qatar attack looks like pure telegraphed symbolism. They’re trying to deescalate, at least with regards to the US. ‘You attacked some empty buildings, we attacked some empty buildings (also with slow and crappy missiles)’. Now everyone can pretend slap was met with slap and now honor is satisfied. Pathetic, if this is really the end of it.
I’d say the variables are Trump and his need to dominant and win, and Israel agitating for US involvement. But if Israel is itself trying to get out of the missile fight it can’t win, then this is likely all coordinated theater through back channels. Might be safe to invest in Nothing Ever Happens stocks.
Of course, the biggest thing of all will continue happening: the total extermination of Palestinians.
Z
The primary logical reason for Iran to agree to a cease fire would be to give them time to create a nuclear bomb. And that presumes that they couldn’t either get one from some other country or create one themselves without a cease fire.
The US of Israel will keep coming at them in some way or another until there either is regime change in Iran or Israel ceases to exist.
Z
Feral Finster
Plater of Trees wrote: “One last note: the BRICS strategic calculus is that the U.S. is very likely to go nuclear if pushed too far. Therefore, they and their proxies are playing for time at all costs. Their hope is that they can pry grandpa’s hands off the steering wheel without him crashing through the guardrail, as he has repeatedly threatened. It’s painstaking and might take the rest of our lives.”
Thanks to Russian dithering and indecision, the rulers of the West are convinced that nuclear war is survivable (for the rulers, and who cares about the peons, anyway?) and besides, they don’t have the stones to do it.
Mark Level
Sorodemos is correct and it’s mostly (if not entirely) mutually telegraphed “attacks” as a form of distraction, Spectacle between the US and Iran. Per Pepe Escobar and others, each side gave the other info on attacks coming in to minimize casualties or damage.
However, the exception to this is Iran hits major Izzy cities, Tel Aviv and Haifa (the latter has a large Palestinian population and is less racist and hellish than the rest of Israel) strongly and constantly, are destroying infrastructure and the economy. One of the Simplicius pieces Tony W. posted on Sunday also noted that Israel was spending $257 million daily over the last days since Iran retaliated, totally unsustainable. And yes, Nutanyahoo and company will never free their own remaining hostages, and are now holding the larger Izzy populace hostage (except for the very rich who can pay to escape covertly on yachts). Also airports hit, Ben Gurion closed down. Of their 3 ports only the smallest is semi-functioning at 30-40% capacity according to most credible reports.
In other words, 2-3 more weeks of this and the US’s “Aircraft in the Middle East” is listing, permanently disabled if not sinking outright. Thus, Bibi’s desperate overreach led them to beg Iran for “Peace” and mercy. The Iranian leadership would have to be suicidal to cooperate.
The second shoe to drop will be when/if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. I gassed up just today when running errands because I don’t want to wait 2-3 weeks when the price will be double or more. The funny thing is Escobar claimed Iran could allow the US to pay for shutting the Strait, imagining they would lose their oil profits, and the disaster for the West would be the same. (Makes more sense for Iran to do it, though, they could give safe passage to Chinese and other allies only if so.) The long-term plan to bottle up Chinese ships in the region cannot be achieved NOW while juggling the Israel ball and other over-commitments by the Empire.
I’m going to disagree with Marku-52’s comment, not the gist of it, but who/what is effectively bottling up the Donald. Yes, “Cornered Trump could be very dangerous.” But he has already been cornered by Adelson, AIPAC and the MIC which is why he flagrantly betrayed and shat on his MAGA base (which is fracturing badly) even with his fake, ineffective sneak attack of the 22nd in West Asia. He is dangerous mainly to the US because “the NeoCons have no reverse gear” (nor brake) as the Duran has often noted.
Also, one correction slightly off topic to Feral Finster. I am not per se an anti-vaxxer (only got one shot and booster, not vaccine-injured, nor did I ever suffer Covid, wore my mask publicly until it seemed unnecessary.) The “horse meds are not meant for humans” crack is ill-informed if you are referring to Ivermectin.
Ivermectin had been in widespread human use in many countries around the world for at least a decade prior to Covid-19, ironically (or not) in many countries that the US was sanctioning and keeping first-world medicines out of. It was used in those countries during Covid, as well as for other maladies, just because some RePug morons trumpeted it doesn’t mean it has or had zero value.
Although I dissed on someone who recently blamed America’s poors for the carnage of US foreign policy, as did others, I am going to somewhat revise what I said. This does not mean that I generally support “Kissing Up, Kicking Down”, which has been the ‘Murican Way since at least the Clintons’ Era. Max Blumenthal said on his “emergency” Grayzone broadcast while the attack on Iran was starting (which I believe Tony W. also put a link to on the weekend ) that sadly, though the Dems and Rep. Massie’s attempt to rein in Donny via the War Powers Act will likely fail UNLESS a large # of Americans use a strategy done against Nixon c. ’74 of surrounding the White House and locking the Monster in its box.
He doesn’t think this will happen, however, despite widespread opposition to another war, a World War with possible nuclear annihilation, by the American public, which will likely ramp up when the price of gas doubles, triples, or . . . sadly, ‘Muricans are just too propagandized, depoliticized, overwhelmed and frankly ignorant to do such a thing, he thinks and I agree. And some of that conforms with the offensive statement, can we expect the poor and beat-down to be smarter than the Elites on political issues? (They may be on say, Cop Violence, which effects them directly, see the Freddie Gray riots in Baltimore, but on International relations they are going to come up short.)
Trump is a dead man walking, he’s been put into a corner by his backers but even moreso by his massive stupidity and laziness.
Some time I might offer to Ian an extended post on how EVERY US Pretzel-dent since Harry Truman with one exception (Eisenhower, a man who knew War well, at first-hand, and didn’t play it as a Spectacular game) has had their administration destroyed by Foreign Policy over-reach and ignorance, Carter (somewhat well-meaning, but the puppet of Brzenski) who was at one point less violent and insane than the rest included. If someone as smart (& thoroughly evil) as Bush Sr. could not escape that systemic trap, Donnie has NO Exit, obviously. (This is by no means an esoteric subject, either, anyone who is fairly familiar with American Presidents since 1945 should know this and might be capable as I am to write such an obvious piece.)
A month after Oct. 7, 2023, Will Menaker of Chapo Trap House joked that the US-Israeli 2-headed monster was a “Murder-Suicide pact.” Readers here can judge which is the Suicide and which the Murderer. If US leadership had a lick of sense or desire to survive, it would remove the Zionist Albatross from around its neck. It won’t!
The sand is dropping out of the hourglass, while the Empire is plunging into another quicksand quagmire. It will not end well for US, it will end up reasonably well for most of the rest of the world (UK, Germany, Ukraine, Israel and other US proxies excepted.) Rabid dogs will die naturally even if they are not put down first.
mago
One reads diverse and contradictory opinions some from supposedly informed sources. Not being a fly on the wall in war rooms I have no idea and if I were one in DC circles I’d still be clueless.
Some say Iran follows the Russian strategy of go slow and methodical playing the attrition game so as to wear down the enemy and keep allies in your corner. Rope a dope bro.
Others say over caution is a losing strategy. Strike hard and fast and knock ‘em out.
Still others say, Iran lacks its much vaunted military hardware as well as cojones.
What I know is the USA of Israel is dominated by nihilistic thinking. These fools know jack about cause and effect and the consequences of their actions.
Jesús or Buddha might say forgive them their sins, for they know not what they do. My view’s neither that vast nor that kind.
I remember that clown John McCain bouncing across a stage in his blue three piece singing Bomb Bomb Bomb /Bomb Bomb Iran.
Are you cheering from your grave Johnny? Dennis Wilson’s rolling over in his.
elkern
“Trump announces Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire”.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/irans-next-move-world-awaits-100630491.html
Looks like Iran’s attack on the US base in Qatar was Kayfabe, and so was the US attack on Iran. (As per Soredemos & others in comments above).
US likely dropped real bombs on Iran, and may well have caused significant damage to the enrichment sites, but it sounds like US notified Iran of the attack, giving them enough time to evacuate people (and maybe a large portion of their uranium). Notifying Iran of the attack would have made it much easier for them to shoot down our planes, which implies that Iran agreed not to shoot at them!
This also implies that Israel’s attack on Iran did NOT actually derail the negotiations between USA and Iran. Even better, Israel was probably NOT in on the charade.
The big question now is whether Israel will really go along with the ceasefire. I have my doubts.
mago
Brian Wilson, not Dennis. Sheesh
Jessica
1:11 am June 24th GMT
Reports on Twitter quoting Fars, the Iranian press agency, that no ceasefire has been agreed to, though Iran did say that it would stop if the Israelis do, but so far the Israelis are still attacking.
The Iranians seem to be concerned that the “ceasefire” is a ruse.
The price of oil was down about $2.50 and inching farther downward but has gone back up about $0.40 in the past few minutes.
Some Guy
“One last note: the BRICS strategic calculus is that the U.S. is very likely to go nuclear if pushed too far. Therefore, they and their proxies are playing for time at all costs. Their hope is that they can pry grandpa’s hands off the steering wheel without him crashing through the guardrail, as he has repeatedly threatened. It’s painstaking and might take the rest of our lives.”
Yes, this is the impression I have been getting as well. BRICS seem to be mostly playing for time in most instances (not all, in particular the Russian invasion of the Ukraine).
I have to say, if you went back a decade and said to yourself, ‘how would China like the next decade to go from a geopolitical standpoint’ what would you come up with that hasn’t already happened?
The US is sinking into kakistocracy and deeper and deeper levels of incompetence, while alienating even its closest allies, to no apparent purpose. Europe is in the process of deindustrializing itself. NATO and the Russians are wearing themselves out and depleting their store of weapons in the Ukraine. The US, Israel, Iran and other parties are beating on each other in the middle east. The West has sacrificed whatever remaining claim to represent a ‘rules based order’ or international law or whatever phrase you want, disgusting the world with its support for ethnic cleansing in Gaza.
And all the while China sits back and builds alliances and its manufacturing capacity and eliminates the areas where it used to be dependent on Western technology.
I’m not saying that they are making all of this happen, but it just seems a long time since the US was going to ‘pivot to Asia’ – that is all – they can’t even ban TikTok, lol.
Jessica
1:25 AM Iranian foreign minister now saying that Iran has stopped military action on Israel for now.
I know that there is the fog of war but this also seems to be the fog of Trump.
someofparts
Tucker Carlson did an interview with Pavel Durov, the owner of Telegram. Durov said he couldn’t stay in Russia without letting them have backdoor access to the platform. When his attorneys check out U.S. policies they learned that not only are engineers that work for platforms here required to give the government access to information if it is requested, but the law also includes a gag order that prohibits them from telling the people they work for that they did it, with jail time the penalty for breaking the gag order.
someofparts
Iran’s Bushehr plant was not hit because Russians are there. Heard that they contacted Washington and Jerusalem to let them know that an attack on that plant would be a direct attack on Russians.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/situation-irans-bushehr-nuclear-plant-is-normal-russian-official-says-2025-06-20/
They are also using China’s Beidou satellite system for targeting and whatnot. Seems the agreement was initiated eleven years ago.
https://geospatialworld.net/blogs/chinas-beidou-gives-iran-what-us-would-not/
someofparts
As to the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz, I read that China has been stockpiling and should be okay, but Europe and the rest of Asia will be hit hard. I was also wondering what the gulf oil monarchies think about it, and what sort of talks they may have had with Iran about it.
someofparts
Skeptical about a ceasfire. Not seeing anything about it in the Iranian press.
KT Chong
China has over one BILLION barrels of oil in its strategic reserve. So no, China is not worried about the Iran-Israel/US war hurting its energy imports in the short and medium terms.
(The US has less than half of that, only about 400 million in its strategic reserve.)
Again, what has been flying the radar in America and the West:
China is also very close to making the important breakthroughs in thorium-based energy. China’s target date for full-scale implementations and the beginning of exports is 2030. China has enough thorium reserve—over one million tons, the world’s largest reserve—to meet its own energy needs for an estimated 25,000 to 60,000 years; (the wide range is because the calculations took into considerations of China’s growing energy needs and future advances in technology that will make thorium energy even more efficient.) That’s cheap, clean energy that’s gonna save the planet.
China is prepared to share its thorium energy with the Global South and its strategic partners (including Russia), which will last all of them between (conservative) 6,500 to (optimistic) 19,000 years. Let’s just say in 6,000 years, either we will have built Dyson Spheres in every star systems that we had colonized, or we will have already been long extinct. So, there is no point for China to hoard all those thorium for itself.
And, there are strategic reasons for China to share: the foundation of America’s hegemonic power is oil: the control of the global flow of energy through petrodollar (i.e., the basis of America’s sanction regime) and maritime chokepoints, (hence, all the US based all over the world.) Once China exports thorium reactors and technology, countries—especially in the Global South—will become dependent on Chinese energy infrastructure and expertise. The thorium revolution will create new spheres of influence aligned with Beijing instead of Washington. That is how China will destroy America without firing a single bullet or fighting a single war.
2030 is the key milestone in China’s roadmap for its thorium energy to become commercially viable. It’s not even a secret, but people in the West just have not been paying attention. It’s gonna be good for China, good for the Global South, good for the planet, good for humanity — but REALLY sucks for America.
KT Chong
i.e., China will become a net energy EXPORTER soon, by around 2030. People would ask: “where will China get so much oil?” Um, the keyword here is “energy”, not “oil”.
KT Chong
As for US allies like EU, Canada, Australia, Japan, etc., “No soup for you!”
Soup = thorium energy.
As China races toward commercializing thorium reactors by 2030, one thing is increasingly clear: U.S. allies—like the EU, Japan, Australia, and Canada—won’t be allowed to have any.
Why? Because it’s not up to them.
The US will try as hard as possible to hold on to its fading petro-based power, by forcing its allies to continue to use fossil fuels and avoid (and even ban) thorium-based energy, at the economic expense of its allies who will suffer high energy costs (compared to countries that switch over to using thorium-based energy,) declining competitiveness, and de-industrialization.
The U.S. can’t stop China’s thorium revolution, but it will try to drag its allies down with it.
It’s gonna suck to be a US ally.
Soredemos
Ceasefire is apparently real. Iranian media is saying it’s in effect.
If so, I’m going to invoke a stupid meme-y internet phrase and say that Iran is the most cucked fucking country on the planet. The ‘Axis of Resistance’ is a dead joke, being generous and assuming it was ever alive to begin with (Hezbollah = BTFO, Syria = BTFO, Iran = BTFO. Only Yemen stands alone as an enemy of Israel and genocide with any backbone.
Iran was winning. They. Were. Winning. They entered the ceasefire with a rapid series of piledrivers. Israel would have been exhausted and rendered defenseless in days instead of a week plus at that pace. Iran could have closed the strait, it could have for real started hitting US bases. Millennium Challenge 2002; they could have fought and sunk a US battlegroup. Instead they’re giving up. And who knows how far back this kabuki goes. Probably the entire nuclear site bombing was orchestrated.
Maybe this is all hyperbole on my part, maybe it all falls apart in a day or two and we resume the previous escalation.
But as of right now it’s impossible to think that Israel is anything but victorious. It’s parried multiple foes in sequence. It’s undermined by spywork every foe in its path. Beyond absurd, this tiny parasite nation. Arabs suck at fighting and Persians are cowards.
Gaza will be a graveyard and Israel will continue to dominate until its own internal contradictions tear it apart or a collapsing US is forced to withdraw support. Maybe in the end the only thing that can kill Israel is Israel. Because clearly a retarded transnational alliance of cucks can’t do it.
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I don’t think the ceasefire was real at all. It was yet another lie from Bibi and Donny to perpetuate the narrative that the ruling regime in Iran is backsliding and hostile and cannot be trusted when in fact that’s pure projection on the part of Bibi & Donny and they are the ones who are hostile and cannot be trusted. As we see from the headlines this morning, the narrative is that Iran broke the ceasefire that never was.
The Dems simply have no credibility at this point if they ever did. How can Donny be a Russian asset and yet be Bibi’s puppet on a string unless, of course, Putin is an Israeli puppet too? The Dems have to reconcile this and the only way to reconcile it is to come clean that if Trump is anyone’s asset, he’s Israel’s asset versus Russia’s asset. Afterall, he can’t serve two masters. The Dems would then have to come clean and admit Israel has been interfering in America’s elections for decades now and finally do something about it.
None of that will ever happen hence I have less than zero hope. Bernie was out on the stump recently when he received the news Donny bombed Iran and he played that up to the crowd with the messaging being “vote Dem in 2026 and 2028” as if that is any kind of solution considering voting Dem in 2020 gave us Donald Trump in 2024. What was laughable was, in the background at that rally behind Bernie were signs saying no to oligarchy. Bernie is so antiquated in every way. Bernie, we are well past oligarchy now. We are in full-blown autocracy and your braindead friend Joe who cheated you and Garland, the descendant of Holocaust survivors, greased the skids for Trump 2.0. They could have prevented it and instead slow-walked Trump’s prosecution for treason — a slam dunk case if ever there was one because it was clearly treason.
The inner most core of the Dem party wanted Trump as POTUS in 2024. Never again. Never vote Dem again. I won’t. Voting accomplished nothing at this point except your complicity.
someofparts
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/israel-orders-attack-on-iran-after-iran-allegedly-violated-ceasefire-it-never-agreed-to.html
“One way to make sense of the ceasefire whiplash of the last 24 hours is that it was an Israel ploy”
Z
This is one of all-blessed Israel’s favorite tactics: when they are on the brink of getting badly damaged, perhaps KO’d, they have their rabid attack Rottweiler, the US, all of a sudden act as if they are objectively refereeing the bout … the US just wants peace, they care so much about humanity! … and get them to step in to be “peace makers” so that Israel can regain their bearings and later sucker punch their opponent while the US is holding their opponent back. Of course, they are also greasing the compromised managers of their opponent with bribery, blackmail, and/or threats to them and their families.
And meanwhile, in the background, the Jewish Supremacist Zionists continue on in their industrial scale murder of Palestinians and their rabid attack Rottweiler, the US, bankrolls and arms their systematic slaughter of the Palestinian civilians, the majority of them women and children.
Z
someofparts
Quotes from the NaCap post I linked to in my last comment –
“For those a bit behind the state of play, last night US time, Iran attacked an emptied US air base in Qatar, and according to some accounts, also a covert US base in Syria that is protecting oil (which is being largely if not entirely trucked into Israel). Iran warned the US of the attack. Trump then grandly announced a ceasefire starting at 4:00 AM, when the Iranians said they were not given any agreement and appear not to have even been given a heads up.”
Interesting to be a fly on the wall in Syrian national government headquarters this morning. I heard they were objecting to confiscation of their oil by western powers … and now this.
and this from “former UK diplomat Ian Proud” –
“That attack, which appears to have been carefully choreographed to demonstrate an Iranian response with limited scope for escalation, would have raised concerns in Doha and other Gulf States of the economic cost to them of entanglement in Netanyahu’s war.
It is interesting that the Iranian and Qataris this morning have spoken and reaffirmed the importance of their ties.”
and from Channel 12 television in Israel –
“Iran’s direct attacks on Tel Aviv turned this city, which was a symbol of vitality and energy, into a city without inhabitants, triggering a wave of mass emigration.”
“The city that was always known for its hustle and bustle is now deserted, with families, young couples, and students leaving.”
“Safe rooms have become a rare commodity, shops are empty, and even parking spaces that the city government declared free have remained unused — because the city is running away from itself.”
this –
“Recall that Alastair Crooke has also pointed out that Israel’s raison d’etre was to be a safe place for Jews. That is no longer true and may never be true again.”
and this –
“Many commentators, particularly Alexander Mercouris long form, have pointed out that the US bombing nuclear sites and the IEA not saying a peep shreds whatever little cred it had left. Even the Russians, which are nuclear-non-proliferation hawks, are pushing back against IEA demands”
and from Andrew Revkin on Twitter –
“A significant increase in GPS jamming and spoofing incidents along the Iranian coast is raising serious concerns about maritime safety in one of the world’s most critical shipping channels. According to the Maritime Information Cooperation & Awareness Center (MICA), approximately 970 ships per day have experienced GPS interference in the region since June 13”
and finally:
“Iran has seen its regional popularity explode since Israel began its aggression. The popularity among the people of the region is unprecedented. If the US wanted to isolate Iran, Israel’s aggression has had the opposite effect. Also unprecedented and perhaps unexpected, after the efforts by the West to orchestrate internal divide in Iran, national cohesion within Iran is at its highest since 1979. The Western-backed opposition were completely overwhelmed by the backlash from Iranian society. Their isolation will not recover.”
marku52
I suspect China and Russia told Iran to take the ceasefire, and so they did. We have no idea how many AD radars and missile launchers Iran has left, so they may have been equipment limited as well.
And there was always the risk that NuutanYahoo, seeing that he is losing, uses nukes.
And that’s bad for everyone. Totally spiraling out of control. So I think China and Russia told Iran to take the deal. And doubtless offered some benefits for doing so.
Less bombing and killing is good. Now what happens in Gaza?
someofparts
from L&S – “The Dems simply have no credibility at this point if they ever did.”
If that is how you are thinking, this should be something to look foward to –
from another post at NaCap –
“Nihilists at Google Wrecking Existing Business to Chase AI Growth”
“But first I want to touch on an idea that Naked Capitalism readers have seen recently in another context via Curro Jimenez: nihilism.
Curro was quoting the French sociologist Emmanuel Todd’s analysis of Israel’s recent behavior in Gaza and Iran and this quote jumped out at me: “Perhaps in the unconscious depths of the Israeli psyche, being Israeli today is no longer about being Jewish — it’s about fighting the Arabs.”
I would argue that for Pichai and those remaining at Google under his leadership, being Google today is no longer about being the dominant search engine — it’s about fighting OpenAi/ChatGPT.
On Wednesday, I’ll be applying Todd’s formulation to the current leadership of the Democratic party which is no longer about being the party of the working class but rather it’s about fighting off the progressive wing of the party.”
someofparts
Related to Trump in particular, and strategic thinking overall, let me apologize for drawing so heavily on NaCap this morning and share quotes from another post over there that I find very clarifying. (Lambert left, YS hired new people who are posting great stuff) Also perhaps of passing interest to MLevel who will be heading south of the border soon.
“How the 2018/2019 US Tariffs Against China Boosted Exports and Employment in Mexico”
“Although the Trump approach to tariffs is still a moving target, this post illustrates a core principle he repeatedly violates, called obliquity. … The core idea is in a complex system, trying to cut a straight or simple path through it is destined to fail, and likely to backfire. That is because the system, as in the terrain, is too labyrinthine and responsive to interaction to be mapped.”
“So given Trump’s strong preference for aggressive frontal attacks, failure is almost guaranteed”
“Obliquity is characteristic of systems that are complex, imperfectly understood, and change their nature as we engage with them. Forests have all these features.”
“Forests are not the only systems structured in this way. Obliquity is equally relevant to our businesses and our bodies, to the management of our lives and our national economies. We do not maximise shareholder value or the length of our lives, our happiness or the gross national product, for the simple but fundamental reason that we do not know how to and never will. ”
“success in challenging and dynamic circumstances requires commitment to high level goals and adaptability about the means, which includes discipline about questioning easy immediate moves. As we have seen, Trump does not stand for anything save his overlarge ego and relentless pursuit of grifting opportunities.”
Z
Some day, and it unfortunately might not be in the distant future, on the course we are currently on, all of mankind will probably be destroyed in a nuclear holocaust and how fitting it is that the Jewish Supremacist Zionists will have driven humanity to that fiery apocalyptic hell.
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The common wisdom, one that I sometimes mindlessly accept, is that if Iran has a nuclear weapon then all-blessed Israel will defer to that and pull back on Jewish Supremacist Zionists’ ambitions to rule the world. But that’s a mighty generous assumption considering that one of their doctrines (the Samson Doctrine) states that they will attack anyone who threatens their existence and the purpose of their “existence”, as they see it, is to rule the world and they are so psychotically selfish that they always have to have their way and so disrespectful of humanity that they’ll never stop trying to rule over us unless they are destroyed.
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They need to be disarmed and disbanded and the only country that has a chance of accomplishing that is their rabid attack Rottweiler, the US, and the majority of the politicians in the US have more allegiance to Israel than they do to US citizens and humanity as a whole because Jewish Supremacist Zionists have leveraged up the tension between their bribes and blackmails … their juicy carrots and their hard sticks … be a multimillionaire or be humiliated … to such an extent that they have completely aligned Jewish Supremacist Zionist’s interests with our elected officials’ personal interests.
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We need another Jesus, someone with enough power and love of humanity that they can and are willing to destroy themselves in order to save the rest of humanity, and they’ll probably have to be Jewish, on the inside of it all, to do it.
That seems to be the juncture of where we are headed.
Z
Soredemos
If Iran is so scared of Israel’s nukes and views them as a trump card, then why fight Israel at all? Why spend twenty-five years building a meaningless Axis of Resistance? Either fight Israel, or don’t. If they can’t be beaten because they have nukes, either get nukes of your own, or give up and subordinate yourself to their domination like all the peon Arab states did.
Fight or don’t fight. But pick a fucking lane.
Z
If anyone … but who would? … doesn’t understand the dangers of having Wailing Wall-ating, decades long amphetamine addicts ostensibly running our country, let me present you with the following sorry exhibits:
1. Speed Queen Nancy P akaFuture First Trans-Human Speaker of the House
2. Lead Stiff of Weekend at Biden’s aka Fourteen Hundred Dollar and Zero Sense Joe aka Genocide Joe
3. Bibi the Butcher’s Butler aka Miriam Adelson’s Personal Pedicurist
4. Let Them Eat Shit Mitch
Our rulers will keep these mofos ticking until they blow up; though, in the case of Bibi the Butcher’s Butler they’ll probably shoot him and blame it on the Iranians because he annoys them too much and they can leverage it to bomb Iran more.
Z
Forecasting Intelligence
Iran has folded.
This article hasn’t aged well.
Ian Welsh
Iran didn’t fold, Israel did. Iran was foolish enough to accept the ceasefire, which I said they might and would be a mistake. This article was fine.
Soredemos
All I see so far is that Iran said ‘we’ll stop shooting if you don’t violate the ceasefire’, Israel immediately violated the ceasefire, and Iran is sitting there doing nothing.
Iran doesn’t understand the Terry Pratchett principle of:
“Why are you kicking a man when he’s down?”
“Best time.”
Iran will never get this kind of opportunity again. Israel will refill its missiles, come up with better counter measures, and simply build better shelters and hide equipment more. Iran’s next missile war will be less effective.
Planter of Trees
Feral Finster: I don’t place much hope in the Russian grand strategy. IMO the Russian attitude is the result of their awful losses during the 20th century. They’re terrified of rolling the dice again only to crap out. The West on the other hand is flush and eager. A nervy gambler who wins enough high-risk bets can clean out the competition no matter how much he’s also lost.
Another problem is that patience is a two-edged sword. BRICS may dream of American overextension and collapse, but Washington doesn’t have to commit in order to defeat them. They only have to undercut them here and there, until their attempts at coalition-building and economic development fall apart.
Take the results of Russian hedging in Syria and Iran. Russian forces coordinated closely with U.S. and Israeli forces in “deconfliction centers” rather than risk an incident in the course of defending their supposed Syrian allies from Western proxies and direct Western aggression. It all seemed so prudent and responsible at the time; in hindsight Russia merely cooperated in the slow dissection of Syria. Now Russian officials complain that Assad and Khamenei were unduly supicious and noncommital!
Anyway, Russia/ BRICS clearly hope to avoid direct conflict altogether and simply negotiate a better cut for themselves with a hypothetical future, much weaker, U.S.A. This has the unfortunate effect of implying that at present, BRICS are weak and can be taken to the cleaners.
Curt Kastens
that the word cease fire even leaves the mouths of Iranian Government officials now makes me doubt my doubt that B2 bombers flew over Iranian air space.
That the the Iranians are trying to deescilate implies that they did not think that they were winning and they have know more about the situation than we do.
Z
The foil to the BRICS’s strategy is that the US probably has an unmetered money hose running straight from the Fed into Larry’s and Stanley’s Asset Inflation Factory BlackRock that they use not only to inflate their assets but also to depress the prices of oil and whatnot through the almost totally unregulated gazillion dollar global derivatives markets. It keep the value of the dollar steady because no one knows how many they are actually creating … they are being pumped into the system outside of Fed’s Open Market machinations … so they don’t get devalued, as they rightfully should, and that allows our rulers to move the price of commodities per their wishes through futures contracts. As long as they can keep Saudi Arabia happy and on sides with their oil production then they can depress the price of oil and never have to pay for their military misadventures.
For instance, one would have thought that Iran threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz would have caused the price of oil to jump, but, in the end, it hardly moved at all.
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If they bet big on the wrong side of the market and incur huge losses, no worries, the Fed’s unmetered money hose covers it through BlackRock and probably a spiderweb of their subsidiaries to keep Larry’s and Stanley’s fingerprints off of it. If they bet big on the winning side, they collect.
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Anyway, that’s my theory. To think our rulers haven’t thought of it is a rather fantastical notion and what and who exactly would prevent them from doing it?
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Musk even mentioned once during his DOGE audits that he had found fourteen (14) “magic money computers” at the Department of Treasury and other government agencies “that create money out of thin air”, but then he hasn’t mentioned anything about it since. I’m not surprised by any of that.
https://fortune.com/2025/03/19/elon-musk-doge-magic-money-computers/
Z