My friends, this is it. America isn’t going to win this war, unless they use nukes, but even if I’m wrong and they squeeze out their .01% chance of success, it is over. The army is exhausted and can’t be re-armed in less than a decade, with Chinese help. The Middle East will be in ruins. The AI bubble will crash out without money and resources from the Gulf. Everyone’s going to turn hard from hydrocarbons to renewables, especially solar, and that means China is going to make absolute bank.
This is the second stupidest war decision I’ve seen in my entire life. (The first was Ukraine refusing a very generous peace deal and, as a result, losing the majority of its fighting and breeding age male population.)
The war is lost. It was lost the moment Iran proved it could keep fighting and wouldn’t accept a peace without achieving its aims. The Americans, with, it appears, help from NATO nations, are going to try and open the Strait militarily. They will fail and it will be a military clusterfuck of epic proportions. There is approximately zero chance of opening the Strait, and if they are stupid enough to try and land marines, those marines are DEAD.
I have never seen such military insanity in my life. If I were a colonel in the US army I’d be organizing a coup and I am not kidding. There are suicide missions and then there’s trying to land troops in the Strait while Iran has missile and drone dominance, thousands of speed boats and has mined the Strait. The US does not have air superiority, even, we just saw the Iranians hit an f-35, they’ve shot down at least eight aerial refueling planes, forced the US to keep its aircraft carriers far away, made it impossible to use most of the local bases and taken out almost all US radars in the area.
This is a loss. The smart thing for the US to do would be to just declare the war is over and evacuate the region. If Israel wants to fight on its own, let it.
But the Israelis almost certainly have video of Trump raping kids, and Americans can’t admit they’re losing, so the war will go on.
The oil field damage is severe enough already that it will take years to repair. Iran will probably retain control over the Strait permanently, deciding who gets to transit. Nations they like go thru free. Nations they hate have no access. Everyone else pays: after all Iran’s going to have a lot of rebuilding to do.
Meanwhile France, still under the delusion that it’s a great power, seized another Russian oil tanker. The Russians have said they’re considering military escorts in the future. This could go south in very bad ways, and France’s missile defense systems and interceptor stockpiles are not in any shape to fight a war with Russia. The EU has decided not to ease Russian oil sanctions and Putin, in any case, has said he doesn’t want to sell to Europeans any more because they’re unreliable.
Europe’s industrial base is evaporating. They’re so far behind in tech that they don’t even show up on lists of the top five tech leaders, even when you lump all of the EU together. (Top 4 are China/US/Japan/South Korea.) Trump just massively cut science and tech spending and scientists and academics are fleeing the US, often for China. Russia, by itself, produces more missiles, drones and artillery shells than all of NATO, which should tell you meaningless GDP is as a measure of state capacity.
The US is about to become a regional power. And I don’t think it will sustain even that. Iran has just taught everyone how to make tangling with even a medium sized nation unbelievably painful. The process of turning into porcupines should take five to ten years, at which point the US navy loses 90% of its power projection ability.
Further the loss of dollar hegemony will lead to a good 30% drop in the American standard of living. But America’s cost structure (if you need an MRI fly to China, stay in a five star hotel for a week and pay cash for your MRI. It’ll cost less than getting it in America) means that high nominal wages mean very little. Americans are going to strangle slowly to death. Meanwhile one-third of the world’s fertilizer supplies are about to evaporate, helium (used to make chips among other things) is about to become rare and expensive and China has put export controls on key elements like silver and all petroleum products. As the supply chain shocks multiply (who thought just in time was smart? Oh, all the usual morons) multiple countries will stop exporting key goods up to and including food.
US bases have been proven not to protect your country but to make it a target. Every American ally is noticing this and the Phillipines and South Korea in particular are taking note. Japan is still talking tough, but they’re being morons. They either get nukes and destroy their economy when China sanctions them, or they cut a deal.
The scale of this clusterfuck is mind boggling. America is destroying its ability to coerce other nations, destroying its economy and making having an alliance with it not just worthless but actively a detriment, while devastating all of its allies’ economies: Europe, Japan and South Korea are all going to take HUGE hits from this.
Meanwhile China’s oil stockpiles are at record highs, they spent the last 4 years buying 50% of the world’s grain supply and piling it up, and their hard move into renewables has proved to be 100% correct. As for Russia, another big winner, since their oil and gas, minus some minor damage from the Ukraine war is just fine, thanks.
While Ukraine’s decision to fight the Russians as a cat’s paw for the US was arguably worse it lacks the awe-inspring scale of this bout of epic stupidity.
As Mencken wrote,
“the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
And here we are. Americans elected the stupidest President in history, a known rapist, a pedophile being blackmailed by a foreign power, a con man, who is also suffering from dementia and all of this was known before he was elected to anyone paying attention.
America’s empire was doomed by Reagan and Clinton. Trump’s just bringing it to a messy end. But the decline could have taken another twenty years and been much, much less painful. Trump has decided to end it in the most spectacular and stupid manner unimaginable to anyone with the intelligence of a door-mouse. Meanwhile, Europe’s pygmy leaders are feeding Europe’s economy into a woodchipper, foot first and greasing the gears, “why is this machine so slow!? What can we do to speed it up?”
Welcome to the end of Western hegemony. It’s stupider, more venal and more darkly funny than I could ever have imagined.
Had a lot of subscribers unsubscribe recently. I assume it’s the economy and/or hating my coverage of Israel. If you value my writing and can, please subscribe or donate.
bruce wilder
Ukraine . . . losing the majority of its fighting and breeding age male population.
Ukraine’s demographic deficit was extremely severe to begin with. The draft age was set at 26! — surely one of the highest lower age limits in the history of warfare. There were very few young men available, so few they deliberately refrained from any effort to recruit them. It is quite peculiar to be fighting a war with an army made up of middle-age men in large part.
Feral Finster
1. The Americans and Israelis will not hesitate to go nuclear. No, Russia and China will do nothing.
2. “The first was Ukraine refusing a very generous peace deal and, as a result, losing the majority of its fighting and breeding age male population.”
Why do you say that? The war has gone splendidly, as far as the West and the rulers in Kiev are concerned. Better than anyone could have predicted, thanks to Russian dithering, indecision and incompetence.
Before the war, Zelenskii was the increasingly authoritarian ruler of a corrupt, backward Nazi-infested shithole. Come February of 2022, he suddenly transmogrified into The Moast Democractic Ruler Evah, like Solomon, Pericles, George Washington, MLK and Jesus Christ, rolled into one. Ukraine was so democratic that it no longer need bother with pesky elections, terms of office, freedom of speech, assembly, the press or religion.
Just as quickly, the Azov, who had been holding neonazi “music” festivals in Kiev as recently as September of 2021, transformed overnight into high spirited young patriots, bonafide freedom fighters, no less. Not the first time that nazis were rehabilitated, the moment they became useful.
The rulers in Kiev continue to enjoy The Good Life, complete with streams of western cash and fawning Vogue covers. They never want this war to end.
Sure, the war sucks for the poor dumb Ukrainian farmboys that get press-ganged at literal gunpoint into the army (I’ve known some), but who cares about those dumb cattle? Nobody in Washington, nobody in Brussels, nobody in Kiev.
Champers all around!
Mark Ohe
Your quip about losing a lot of subscribers recently is probably due more to your misguided opinion that, “The first [stupidest war decision] was Ukraine refusing a very generous peace deal and, as a result, losing the majority of its fighting and breeding age male population.” The fact is, it was not a “peace deal.” It was capitulation. And apparently just about everyone saw that, except you. Unfortunate, because the bulk of this post about the attack on Iran seems on the mark.
Mark Ohe
@ianwelsh.net
Your quip about losing a lot of subscribers is probably due more to your misguided opinion that, “The first [stupidest war decision] was Ukraine refusing a very generous peace deal and, as a result, losing the majority of its fighting and breeding age male population.” The fact is, it was not a “peace deal.” It was capitulation. And apparently just about everyone saw that, except you. Unfortunate, because the bulk of your post about Iran seems on the mark.
Ian Welsh
Sorry Mark, that’s been my view for years now and the subscriber losses are “this month”, so no, it’s not a factor. You’re obviously a new reader or a drive by, or you’d know that.
The March deal was better than they’re going to get by fighting and wouldn’t have cost them so much. Hundreds of thousands are dead, millions have fled the country.
But far be it for me to stop you from getting exercise by jumping to conclusions.
NGG
Well said, Ian.
brtrain
“If I were a colonel in the US army I’d be organizing a coup and I am not kidding. ”
Parameters is the professional magazine of the US Army War College. In 1992 they published an article by CJ Dunlap, “Origins of the Military Coup of 2012”, describing the installation of a military government in the USA… after a disastrous war against Iran (though he puts the disaster down to US military forces acting like policemen and humanitarians and not like professional soldiers).
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol22/iss1/8/
spud
Ian:
agreement, but reagan was the direct results of the imbecile carter. see paul volker and alfed kahn, two really really stupid greedy bungling creatures.
its time russia and china picks up the power that was laid at their feet by the actions of the american government from 1993 on wards.
you made a fine argument on why most asset classes are facing a liquidation scenario, and why two large cans of corned beef and fresh water to drink has more value than manipulated so called assets.
the current russian government never understood that modern russia is a direct results of the communists, not the capitalists.
they maybe learning now. hard to tell.
if a soviet ship was ever seized, stalin would unleash a Zhukov on the idiots that seized it. see 1938 and japan.
Mao did not hesitate to send troops into north korea, nor did stalin hesitate to send in the migs.
the migs devastated american jets. china’s numbers were over whelming.
perhaps the U.S. armed forces will face a crumbling in the near future, and press gangs will appear.
slavery and mercenaries, make any country that relies on that, extremely vulnerable.
Feral Finster
The irony is that a majority of Ukrainians favor a peace deal, even though saying so out loud is sure to attract the tender mercies of the secret police.
You can bet your last Gryvnya that I’ve spent more time in Ukraine than most here.
Feral Finster
“Meanwhile France, still under the delusion that it’s a great power, seized another Russian oil tanker. The Russians have said they’re considering military escorts in the future. This could go south in very bad ways, and France’s missile defense systems and interceptor stockpiles are not in any shape to fight a war with Russia.”
The French are betting that Russia doesn’t have the stones.
cc
Canada should start the process of turning into a porcupine, but it seems Carney wants to join the coalition of the suicidal to try to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and forcibly restore the flow of spice …
From Denis Villeneuve’s Dune Part 2:
Emperor: “There is a massed armada in orbit. You’re facing a full invasion, Fremen.”
Paul Atreides: “If the Great Houses attack, our atomics will obliterate all spice fields.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVkdKVLqgR0
Emperor Trump-anyahu: “As a servant of the Imperium, you will bow at my feet.”
Paul M. Khameini: “You have to answer for my father.”
Emperor Trump-anyahu: “Do you know why I killed him? Because he was a man who believed in the rules of the heart. But the heart is not meant to rule.”
Does Carney see Canada as amongst the Great Houses of the Empire? He also still foolishly supports the Empire’s other war of aggression, against Russia, using Ukraine. Does Canada under Carney still join the US in sending Canadian warships and warplanes off the coast of China between its mainland and its island province? Didn’t he also quickly welcome the Empire’s murderous raid and abduction of Maduro and his wife?
GrimJim
Unfortunately, the leadership cadre of the US military, that which was not already Evangelical Nutcases, has been thoroughly purged of anyone who is not a MAGA-adjacent believer.
The many complaints heard about how leaders are claiming the Iran war is ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ are merely the damn fools among the leadership who could not keep their mouths shut. They are essentially all like that.
So no, no military coup. We’re all seriously screwed.
cc
Mispelled Khamenei above.
And of course, the Israeli Zionist settlers and IOF, mostly white, mostly from Europe, or Europe via the US, are the brutal, sadistic Harkonens sent by the Empire to terrorize the natives and ensure control of the spice so essential to the Empire.
mago
Word on the street, or maybe in the alleys, is that Putin’s dead and Netanyahu, too. Can Trump be far behind?
Doesn’t matter. Everybody dies and the beat goes on.
The four horsemen galloping to a neighborhood near you.
Now!
joey_n
To think it was last week (the 9th IIRC) when Putin said he (or Moscow) would be willing to work with the Europeans on gas supplies if the latter showed any willingness toward it, and that it wasn’t too late to change course. (How) does one contradict the other, or are they not mutually exclusive?
mago
Happy equinox by the way.
It’s the beginning of spring and the time of new beginnings.
Rabbits multiplying and the greening of the lands
Go forth and procreate as best ye can little children
Bears awake from hibernation and stumble about in search of roots and grubs and ants while the masters of war kill one and all in foreign lands
Wake up wake up and gather what you can before it’s too late
Before it comes home in ways you cannot understand
Cheerful equinox to all.
someofparts
I see a lot of gardening in my future. Over in comments at NCap people were joking about what to call our future gardens. Can’t call them Victory Gardens like in WWII. Suggestions ranged from Resistance Gardens to Defeat Gardens.
Jefferson Hamilton
“Everyone’s going to turn hard from hydrocarbons to renewables, especially solar”
I think everything you said was basically right except this. I mean, maybe they will try, but there are no “renewables” (which aren’t actually all that renewable) without hydrocarbons (as Thatcher said, there really is no alternative), there is no such thing as an “energy transition” and never has been, and this whole thing is going to put a serious crimp in hydrocarbon availability worldwide. This is the beginning of a step down in global economic complexity, I think. We have not even begun to unravel the many deleterious effects it’s going to have on everything and everyone. China will weather it best, of course, but if push comes to shove they won’t be sharing.
Nat Wilson Turner
you really should save some blame for GW Bush as well. Presiding over 9/11 (and the ensuing cover ups), the GWOT, patriot act, etc. A massive drop off in our empire’s life expectancy happened between 2001-2008
Bob
Sorry again but there’s no such thing as “renewables”. Wind turbines and solar panels are fossil fuel energy products. The real work of industrial civilisation is done by deisel machines. Offshore windmills made out of fossil fuels are falling apart the minute they’re erected. There isn’t enough copper to make the cables. If the British government is successful in increasing the percentage of electric cars, the chance of a grid collapse goes up. Industrial civilisation can not run on electricity.
That other stuff, sure.
Jan Wiklund
Jefferson & Bob: the first wind turbines and the first solar panels were certainly produced by diesel and other fossile fuels, like the first steam engines probably were produced by horse power or something. But there is no reason why they should stay so. The more electricity you produce with wind and solar, the more you can use it to produce more of them. And they are actually MUCH cheaper to use than oil, not to speak of nuclear which is the most expensive of all.
As Nathan Rosenberg said (Inside the black box: Technology and economics, 1982): all great inventions save something: energy, labour, raw maerials. They are cheaper than the old. And wind turbines and solar panels are.
Like & Subscribe
It is quite peculiar to be fighting a war with an army made up of middle-age men in large part.
A traditional war, yes, but war is no longer traditional. Asymmetrical warfare is now the name of the game and drones are a large part of that. Just ask Iran. Like Iran, Ukraine is fighting an existential war. This is why Russia has been unable to conquer Ukraine. Something that often fails to get mentioned if it’s mentioned at all, is the devastation Ukraine has wrecked on Russia’s energy infrastructure over the past couple of years. It’s impressive and not a lot of soldiers are needed for the job.
Like & Subscribe
Can Trump be far behind?
We can always hope and dream. We have the fireworks ready for the day and we don ‘t do fireworks as a matter of course but this is an exception. Hell, we don’t celebrate the 4th of July either but THIS, THIS we will celebrate like faux patriotic crackers celebrate the 4th.
We’ll be blasting this on repeat for days on end. It’s a celebration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M
Of course, that’s just the beginning. After the celebration the hard work begins of rounding up MAGA and the Dem Party establishment and putting them to good use in work camps while the worst of them are publicly prosecuted in public tribunals and adequate eye-for-an-eye justice is administered for their complicity in crimes against humanity.
Mark Level
I thank cc for the Dune and Atreides family anthology. I read that series more than 30-some years ago. Russell Dobular of Due Dissidence often says a message of the series is that the oppressed and spatially isolated regions that are colonized by Settler-Colonialist projects over time develop into a hardier and stronger group and come back to dominate the invaders. I think this is a decent analogy, and though it doesn’t always apply, I think in this case, for a variety of reasons, it will.
So I noticed on the last thread that LAS has another Ukraine Dead Ender pal, good for him. Ian curtly rebutted his nonsense, and as to L&S’s claims that having an older (mostly above 40) army is a “strength”, it’s not quite as insane as his claim that Hitler punked Stalin with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, all of us who know how WWII ended know how absurd that is.
Another Troll on the last thread pushed his Narrative that we should not listen to the former NatSec experts who opine online. Fine for him, no worries. But since these people have changed their tune, and had a “Come to Jesus” moment, and provide useful inside information that generally comes to pass just as they predict, I will continue to consult their shared data.
Which leads me to point out a central reason why China-Russia-Iran will prevail even beyond their numerical and economic strengths (the latter just now ramping up for Iran after the USReal carpet bombing, they are charging tankers up to $2 million to pass through the Strait, also those who pay in remimbi get discounted access.)
What the Eastern Allies have is something unknown in the Western Axis of Zio-White Supremacy: in a word, “Patience.” Very ancient cultures have more experience than a brash, what’s our next quarter’s profits Idiocracy whose main tool is a Hammer to smash, building is no longer done nor even considered.
So the Duran (who never worked for the Deep State, though Mercouris certainly has some direct connections with powerful people in the Western Axis as well as the Eastern Allies) had on a financial expert, Ray Zacarro. Some points he made: Mercouris noted petrol hasn’t jumped a lot in price in the UK yet, perhaps 15% and Zacarro noted in USA it’s already +33% and despite defensive Treasury fuckery, and profit-taking from the Trumpy Regime, it will go much higher, quickly. The Trump voters aren’t, like the smug PMC Dimmie hangers-on, wealthy and don’t have any financial cushion. So time is not on the MAGA base’s side, poverty and deprivation coming soon. Zacarro was asked by the Duran if he thinks the US Crash will be on a scale of the Greenspan-Summers ’08-09 Mortgage scam “Recession”, he said no, many times larger.
And here’s an excellent point from MoA’s Bertrand, again pertaining to “Patience”: “Destruction of Iran on the scale envisaged will take years of hard pounding. Again, it is planned – you don’t ask Congress for an installment of $200 billion for a war you plan to wrap up in a month. Again, Trump’s taunts about having already won, objectives being achieved and about possibly finishing soon, are all just smoke and mirrors. The scale and horror of what is planned for Iran has to be obfuscated to limit a public revulsion that would be echoed in parts of the state apparatus.
Netanyahu yesterday revealed an interesting part of the endgame – construction of an oil pipeline that brings Iran’s oil out to be shipped from a Mediterranean terminal in Israel. That is a breathtakingly audacious plan, but absolutely aligns with Netanyahu’s and Trump’s actions.”
The Western USRael Axis has already exhausted its ordnance, and Iran has destroyed multi-million $ radars across the Gulf Region, hit at least one Israeli oil field as well as pounded Haifa, Tel Aviv, etc. And in recent days they were still only using 2 decades or more older weapons, the bigger, newer stuff is coming soon. Qatar has admitted 17% of its oil capacity wiped out for the time being, won’t be online again for years (if ever).
I’m going to praise the Ukraine-Banderist dead-enders and thank them here: Thank you for destroying the West Axis ordnance stocks with 4+ years and billion$ flushed down the toilet while the Ukrainian populace all fled (the smart ones, with resources, anyway; same thing evidently happening in the Zio-State now, lots fleeing to Portugal and elsewhere, the richest all have dual citizenship passports). And just a reminder, nobody in the Russian government claimed on Feb. 24, 2022 that they would take “Keev” “in 3 days”, if memory serves that over-hype (to then show the Russians were failing) came from US (failed under Biden leading to the shambolic Afghanistan Cut and Run to Pivot to Ukraine) General Mark Milley. As Tulsi & J.D. Vance both know, others are now pretending is not the case, the US does only Failed Wars. And the Donald does everything on a gargantuan scale, this “War” (or not-war, or already won-victory) will fail bigly.
Will the Whores in Congress really give these clowns $20 Billion more “Supplemental” to fail longer and dig deeper into a quagmire. It’s quite possible. But at the same time, Americans will be losing what little health care they already have, losing housing and becoming homeless, I will bet that in 4 months (assuming the Trump Team are stupid enough to persist for that long) there will be large-scale civil unrest and rage at the Oligarchs.
No Patience in the West. Just mindless destruction, endless Shock and Awe!! But it’s admitted that Russia (not Ukraine) creates more ordnance, weapons in a month than the rip-off US Nat-Sec Profiteers create in an entire year. So yes, Ian is correct, these clowns can persist or if wise back down more quickly. What they can’t do is win.
When will the likes of Thiel and Musk be fleeing to their Australian or Kiwi bunkers when the US Ship of State starts taking on water? I’m no prophet, they might last until the July 4 “Celebration” of beating the Mad King George and ramping up our genocide of the Native Americans. A celebration in a broken-down insane asylum, yay!!
Not much longer than that, I’d predict.
different clue
I was going to say what GrimJim beat me to saying . . . that the Project 2025 Party, under TrumpAdmin Cover and with TrumpAdmin help, purged out the sort of colonels or generals who might organize a “save the Constitution” coup and replaced them with Rapturaniacs, Armageddonites and especially Christianazians. ( The Christianazians are different from Rapture-Arma groups in that the Christianazians believe in forcibly insituting a Thousand Year Rule of Gilead Christian Righteousness FIRST, and if they are sucCESSful eNOUGH . . . THEN Christ will come again and reward them for their efforts. Hegseth is a Christianazian.
I remember when the DemParty nominee was definitely Harris and the Rep nominee was of course Trump . . . that various Left Identified people launched their Abandon Harris movement in order to punish the Democrats by getting Trump elected. Trump was the President they wanted for America for ‘altruistic punishment’ reasons and they don’t like being reminded of it now. ( If any Leftists feel like replying to that they should remember the old folk saying: ” Its the stuck pigs that squeal and the stuckest pigs squeal the loudest”).
What will Canada’s role and place be in a “twilight of the West” future? Perhaps Canada can become less Western by settling up with its Colonial First Nations victims and “going Indian” at least to a point.
Meanwhile, when life becomes so unliveable for so many within the borders of the US, many millions of Americans will try surging over the border like the Huns, German Tribes, and other barbarian peoples of old. Maybe Canadians need to get ready for that too, with Big Beautiful Walls, Big Beautiful Minefields, hundreds of thousands of cross-firing machine gun emplacements, etc.
Here is a picky-poo quibble: Dormouse is spelled ” Dor” mouse, not “Door”mouse. A tiny thing, to be sure.
Here is a bunch of dormouse images
https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=AwrheoMs775pZAIAC1ZXNyoA;_ylu=Y29sbwNiZjEEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Nj?p=dormouse+image&fr=sfp
spud
when you look at today’s war on iran, you will see that actually iran is a first tier nation, and that the U.S.A. is a second tier nation.
its quite easy to see, i predicted the results in the 1990’s, from 1993 0nwards, i said its all down hill from here.
bill clinton free traded away americas wealth, plus unleashed financial parasites onto us.
so really iran is a advanced tier one economy, and the U.S. is the 1914 ottoman empire. on its last legs.
unable to manufacture, religious fundamentalism and finance ruled the empire.
The Ottoman Empire had a liberal trade policy that allowed for free trade, particularly through agreements known as capitulations, which began in the 16th century. However, this openness ultimately contributed to deindustrialization as it exposed local industries to competition from European imports, particularly after the Treaty of Balta Liman in 1838, which favored British merchants.
Wikipedia
Overview of Free Trade in the Ottoman Empire
The Ottoman Empire had a complex relationship with free trade, particularly from the 16th century onward. The empire’s trade policies evolved through various treaties and economic reforms, impacting its economic structure significantly.
Key Treaties and Policies
Capitulations: The Ottomans signed several capitulations, starting with France in 1536, which allowed foreign merchants to trade with reduced tariffs. These agreements laid the groundwork for a liberal trade policy.
Treaty of Balta Liman (1838): This treaty with Great Britain marked a significant shift. It abolished Ottoman monopolies and granted British merchants equal access to markets, effectively creating an open market environment. However, it was criticized as an unequal agreement that favored British interests over local industries.
Economic Impact
Deindustrialization: The liberal trade policies, particularly after the Treaty of Balta Liman, contributed to the decline of local manufacturing. The influx of cheaper British goods undermined Ottoman industries, leading to deindustrialization.
Integration into Global Markets: The Ottoman Empire became increasingly integrated into a European-dominated world market, particularly as a supplier of raw materials like cotton, especially after the decline of Muhammad Ali’s industrialization efforts in Egypt.
Conclusion
The Ottoman Empire’s approach to free trade was characterized by initial openness that later led to significant economic challenges. While it aimed to foster trade and economic growth, the resulting policies often favored foreign interests and contributed to the empire’s economic decline.
———————–
so is iran first tier and advanced?
Iran’s healthcare system is based on three main pillars: the public-governmental system, the private sector, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The Ministry of Health and Medical Education oversees healthcare services, which include a network of public hospitals and clinics providing primary care across the country.
Wikipedia GOV.UK
Overview of the Healthcare System in Iran
Iran’s healthcare system is structured around three main pillars: the public-governmental system, the private sector, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME) plays a crucial role in managing healthcare services, medical education, and health policy formulation.
Key Features
Healthcare Delivery
Public Hospitals: Approximately 749 hospitals are affiliated with the MOHME, providing a majority of healthcare services.
Private Sector: There are around 166 private hospitals, primarily serving wealthier individuals.
NGOs: Various charitable organizations also contribute to healthcare delivery, particularly in specialized areas like children’s health.
Accessibility and Coverage
About 90% of Iranians have some form of health insurance.
Public health services are accessible to most of the population, with a network of health centers and clinics in both urban and rural areas.
Health Indicators
Indicator Value
Life Expectancy 75.5 years
Healthcare Spending (% of GDP) 6%
Per Capita Healthcare Spending $346
Number of Doctors 100,000
Number of Nurses 170,000
Hospital Beds 120,000
Challenges
Since 2020, Iran has faced significant challenges, including a medical crisis characterized by medication shortages, rising treatment costs, and a mass exodus of healthcare professionals. Despite these issues, the country has made strides in improving health indicators and expanding access to healthcare services.
iran has managed to do this under constant warfare and economic sanctions.
Iran’s social welfare system includes various programs aimed at providing support for the poor, elderly, and disabled, primarily funded through state oil revenues. The Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare oversees these programs, which include social insurance and assistance for employed persons, self-employed individuals, and housewives.
Social Security Administration sciencespo.fr
Overview of Iran’s Social Welfare System
Iran’s social welfare system has evolved significantly since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The government has aimed to provide social security and welfare services to its citizens, focusing on various aspects such as health, education, and financial support.
Key Components
Component Description
Social Security Organization Administers social insurance programs, covering employed persons, self-employed individuals, and housewives.
Health Insurance Offers medical benefits to employed persons and certain vulnerable groups, including students and war veterans.
Pension Schemes Provides old-age, disability, and survivor benefits, with contributions from both employees and employers.
Educational Support Expands access to education, particularly for women and rural families, improving overall educational attainment.
Challenges and Developments
Economic Hardships: Over the past two decades, Iranian households have faced declining economic welfare due to inflation and poor policy decisions. The welfare index for urban households has decreased, indicating a drop in living standards.
Inequality Issues: Despite efforts to improve social justice, income distribution remains uneven, with significant rural-urban disparities. The Gini index, which measures income inequality, has shown stability at high levels.
Corruption and Mismanagement: Systemic corruption and misallocation of resources have undermined the effectiveness of welfare programs, leading to a decline in real incomes and increased poverty rates.
Conclusion
Iran’s social welfare system aims to provide essential services and support to its citizens, but it faces significant challenges, including economic instability and inequality. Continued reforms and effective management are crucial for improving the welfare of the population.
—
Iran’s research and development system is primarily organized under the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (S.P.N.D.), which focuses on advancing military technologies and has been involved in nuclear weapons development. Additionally, Iran has made significant strides in various scientific fields, including biotechnology and nanotechnology, despite facing international sanctions.
Wikipedia iranwatch.org
Overview of Iran’s Research and Development System
Iran has developed a robust research and development (R&D) system, particularly in the fields of science and technology. This system has evolved significantly despite facing international sanctions.
Key Organizations
Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (S.P.N.D.): Established in 2011, this governmental agency focuses on advancing military technologies and has been involved in nuclear research and development.
Biotechnology Development Council: Formed in 1999, it oversees the development of biotechnology in Iran, emphasizing strategic planning and implementation.
Nanotechnology Research Centers: Iran has five specialized centers, including one at Sharif University, which focuses on nanoscience and technology.
Achievements in Science and Technology
Education Growth: The university population in Iran surged from 100,000 in 1979 to 4.7 million in 2016, contributing to a rapid increase in scientific output.
COVID-19 Response: Iran developed its own COVID-19 vaccines and testing kits, showcasing its capabilities in biotechnology.
Aerospace and Defense: Iran ranks 13th globally in aerospace technology and has made strides in missile technology and military drones.
Challenges
Despite these advancements, Iran’s R&D system faces challenges such as:
International Sanctions: These have limited access to global research networks and funding.
Resource Allocation: There are ongoing issues with funding and infrastructure that affect the efficiency of R&D activities.
Iran’s R&D system continues to adapt and grow, focusing on both military and civilian applications, while striving to overcome external and internal challenges.
looks like a tier one country to me.
bill clinton said the era of big government is over, and turned governing of the nation over to corporations.
no wonder iran looks ferocious in this war.
so iran is fighting a near peer nation, just as the ottomans were near peer in WWI
i think north korea is going to surprise us in the near future also, if we have one that is.
different clue
Here, from the WorldNews subreddit, is a GreekCityTimes story called: “Europe faces new wake-up call: Tehran’s 4000km missile reach exposed in Diego Garcia strike”
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1rzspq7/europe_faces_new_wakeup_call_tehrans_4000km/
Hopefully this will deter every single EUroGov from doing anything to force the Hormuz strait open. The least-bad outcome would be keeping the strait sealed up tight all the way through America’s midterm elections. Hopefully gas prices will become unaffordable in Trump Country. The Dems will miss the opportunity to run on “finding a dignified surrender to Iran” to get the strait open. What the Dems “will” run on is anyone’s guess. Possibly they will run on a “kinder gentler Project 2025”, and then a “kinder gentler Project 2026″.
Will a majority of Black American voters still vote Democrat? Or will a majority of Black American voters work on creating a Black America First Party and see who else, if anyone else, supports it as well? A massive ” sit-out-the-vote” campaign by Black America to see if non-Black America can elect Democrats all by itself might be a first political science experiment in that direction.
Roslyn Ross
The Ameraelis will no go nuclear. For a couple of reasons.
They do not know if the Iranians have the capacity for a ‘dirty’nuclear bomb and they do not know if the Iranians would destroy Dimona and other nuclear sites, thereby activating a nuclear bomb they did not have to make, and nuclear weapons not only destroy Iran, they destroy the Straits of Hormuz, much of the Middle East and send radioactive materials literally around the world which Americans would not like.
Such destruction is not conducive to business, marketing, making money or keeping the oil and gas flowing so the world can keep doing business and Western nations can actually survive.
And the Israelis are evil, devious, dishonest pricks who would be prepared to cut their losses in Iran so they can keep exterminating goys in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria.
I could be wrong of course since, as some general said, when the first shot is fired the plans go out the window.
Roslyn Ross
“Netanyahu yesterday revealed an interesting part of the endgame – construction of an oil pipeline that brings Iran’s oil out to be shipped from a Mediterranean terminal in Israel. That is a breathtakingly audacious plan, but absolutely aligns with Netanyahu’s and Trump’s actions.”
Which just shows how removed from reality he is. As if anyone is going to invest in such a pipeline and as if such a pipeline could be built or remain functional if they managed to do it.
If Iran were defeated and that is not likely, there would still be millions of Iranians bent on revenge. And there would be a return to Shia and Arab guerilla warfare which would make life impossible for Israel, if it still exists, and the Ziojewraelis would keep on leaving. So, no boots for any ground to protect such a venture and who would build it? Oh, desperate Filipinos and Indians? Possibly. But that just opens holes a mile wider in terms of securing such a construction project and keeping it operational.
As the Queen said in Wonderland: I can believe a dozen impossible things before breakfast.
Roslyn Ross
The US needs to look after itself and its people and restore function and a decent quality of life for everyone if it is to even survive. An angry, heavily armed, desperate society can quickly turn to chaos.
As it is, along with most of humanity, even most Americans loathe Israelis and want the vile little State of Hate destroyed so the chances of American money continuing to flow into Israhell is decreasing by the minute. No US support and no Israel. That simple.
Roslyn Ross
Re: unsubscribers.
Ignore it. You have street cred I do not but the same thing happened to me starting about six months ago. I think the Ziomolls subscribe and then dump the site to try to destroy confidence. Not relevant. Keep up the good work.