The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Risk and Reward As Perceived in American Strategic Culture

~by Sean Paul Kelley

How does the way an individual perceives time affect the way they approach risk? And can the way individuals perceive time and risk be applied on a macro scale?

Let’s take a look.

Sociologist Phillip Zimbardo developed a five way typology of how individuals perceive time. People who inhabit certain zones have certain characteristics unique to their typology. Diane Maye, commenting on attitudes toward risk by the US military at The Strategy Bridge writes, “future-oriented people tend to be more successful at achieving their goals, whereas people who frequently reminisce about the past can be overly nostalgic or fearful.” Makes sense, no?

What about those who live in the present? How do they perceive time and more importantly how do they approach risk? This type inhabits what Zimbardo calls the present hedonistic mode, and as Maye elaborates, “[are] more likely to engage in risk-taking behavior.” Maye adds that “the present hedonistic person “lives in and for the moment” and demonstrates a “lack of regard for future consequences.”

I can’t think of anything that describes the outlook of most Americans with more accuracy than this. America is a nation riddled with a present-mind perspective. Our media diet is now totally skewed towards immediate gratification with absolutely zero thought for the future. No one reads long-form essays any longer, much less books. Tik-Tok, X and even the nightly national news is geared towards quippy repartee, not well-informed consideration. Balance and objectivity in reporting just takes too long, especially when you can strike a pose, Right or Left. Such a thing is much easier and much more rewarding to ones endorphin producing centers. Intellectualism is so passé.

Indeed, one of the greatest losses of the last several years was NPRs shift from a medium whose central bias was intellectual, to one that skews left is overtly political. All part and parcel of the slippery slope towards an all pervasive AI-driven society concerned only about its own immediate gratification.

This typology can just as easily be applied to our national approach to such existential matters as voting, domestic economics, and foreign risk, mainly in the context of our conduct of war, best summed up as “bomb first, analyze the loss later.”

The consideration of risk and reward became uncoupled from each other during the Reagan Administration, when the debt markets were restructured drastically by a crucial innovation: MBSs, mortgage-backed securities and junk bonds–supposedly to democratize finance–and the equity markets were deregulated and then a Bull’s ass was set aflame by Greenspan’s long era of easy money. The spread between them only grew worse under Clinton, doubly so under Baby Bush, Obama and aren’t even spoken in the same sentence under our new Maximum Leader, Trump.

Americans, however, are soon going to learn that when you sow the wind, you reap the whirlwind. The consequences of which will be grim.

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17 Comments

  1. bruce wilder

    The culture was designed to purpose to produce domesticated livestock.

  2. marku

    “I’ll be gone, you’ll be gone”

    DGAF

    The plain and expected result of the neoliberal framework where every result is evaluated in money.

  3. Indeed, one of the greatest losses of the last several years was NPRs shift from a medium whose central bias was intellectual, to one that skews left.

    Huh? You have to be kiddin’. The exact opposite is true. NPR has skewed right. So much so, I’d characterize it as centrist-right but certainly centrist in the least. The closest thing you will get to the left in the media is Democracy Now and that’s not even left — it’s liberal.

  4. What about those who live in the present? How do they perceive time and more importantly how do they approach risk? This type inhabits what Zimbardo calls the present hedonistic mode, and as Maye elaborates, “[are] more likely to engage in risk-taking behavior.” Maye adds that “the present hedonistic person “lives in and for the moment” and demonstrates a “lack of regard for future consequences.”

    Indeed, carpe diem is a zionist trap and Good Will Hunting (Robin Williams) was propaganda meant to ensnare unwitting, innocent, naive Americans in a “here and now” orgy of hedonistic delights.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi0Lbjs5ECI

  5. spud

    NPR never went left. the true left values labor rights as supreme.

    Lincoln,

    ‘Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. Capital has its rights, which are as worthy of protection as any other rights.”

    after WWII and because of new deal/fair deal legislation, americas markets were considered the safest in the world. from 1993 on wards, they became buyer beware. a typical casino you see in westerns, riddled with scandals, crashes, bailouts of unsavory market actors, to the detriment of millions.

    today the markets exhibit a classic ponzi scheme, way way over valued, basically producing nothing but higher stock prices, all based on dodgy paper assets, and over leveraged beyond all reason.

    this can go on almost forever, wash, rinse and repeat. but for every washing etc. the wash has less bang for the buck. till it does not work anymore, the pigeons have been plucked till they have nothing.

    then the saloon owner heads for his office to clean out the safe, and make his getaway, if he timed it right.

    bitcoin is losing big today again, the sheriff must ride to the rescue before closing.

    as steve keen has said, i would never own a stock and bitcoin is a ponzi scheme.

  6. Purple Library Guy

    This is kind of interesting. I’d have liked to know what the five things are in this typology, because only three are obvious. On the matter of past orientation, the quote “whereas people who frequently reminisce about the past can be overly nostalgic or fearful.” raises the question of just how much nostalgia or fear is “overly”. There does seem to be a good deal to fear.

    Meanwhile, some of the mentions of “left” are problematic to me. I have become very uncertain what the hell Sean Paul Kelley means when he says “left”; I’m not sure he understands what he means when he says “left”. In this case, the mentions themselves are sort of irrelevant to the topic and just seem to be a kind of mild drive-by smear . . . of whatever it is that Kelley means when he says the word. Certainly I’ve never heard a leftist refer to NPR as “left”, so again, I’m fairly mystified what that might be.

  7. Sean Paul Kelley

    @Purple Library Guy: here is the link to the story: https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2016/3/22/the-game-of-risk You can find the typologies there.

  8. Sorry, I meant Dead Poet’s Society, not Good Will Hunting. I got my Robin Williams’ movies mixed up.

  9. Carborundum

    The article doesn’t seem to mention the complete typology. This came up on a quick search:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2024/03/06/5-types-of-time-perspectives-and-which-is-healthiest/

  10. Purple Library Guy

    Hmmm . . . so, looking at Mr. Kelley’s link and then searching up another thing or two about the schema, I notice little is said in it of people with relatively balanced time orientations, although I would expect that to be a substantial portion. The median or norm or what have you is often less interesting than the outliers, but what I notice here is that the disadvantages of each extreme are significant, while the advantages would mostly still work reasonably well if less dominant. This may be a case where the ancient Greek ideals around being well-rounded and moderate might be the way to go.

    The disadvantages of a too-strong present or even past orientation are fairly obvious. Our culture, while being actually really into the present, still in theory strongly valorizes the future orientation, so there’s a temptation to hold that up as an ideal. But while being able to plan and look forward is important, a lack of grounding in the present and past can lead to endless planning and work towards a future that will never happen, towards purposes that are not really what we want or wise things to desire, and which we will be unable to enjoy should we achieve them. Even in the military setting, whether tactical or strategic, working always towards future goals without putting them in perspective with the present and past can lead to a techbro military, full of unworkable gee-whiz ideas that fail to take experience into account.

  11. StewartM

    You fail to mention Ayn Rand’s effects; she’s still really admired among the upper echelons. (I remember once when I stayed at a ritzy hotel in Jupiter, Florida, on the beach, because of a company-paid course I was taking, the car I pulled up behind had “AYNRAND” as its license plate). When you say that it’s “immoral” to think of anyone’s good but your own, by necessity that means that you think the universe ends with your own demise. Or at least you don’t care about what happens after that. (And yes, I’ve had conservatives tell me EXACTLY this).

    Given the fact that “money equals power” and “money equals market ‘votes'” in our culture, and couple that with the fact that richer tends to equate with ‘older’, when you combine Rand’s philosophy with demographers you tend to get a time perspective of ten years, maximum.

  12. marku

    I think the confusion over NPR is that while they are culturally “left” (Trans rights, LBTQ etc) they are economically hard right libertarian. You will never hear an article praising labor rights, for example.

    In this way they suit their corporate masters, in a sheepdog fashion.

  13. Jan Wiklund

    If only it had been just the US! The description applies to Europe as well. Not that trigger-happy, but no thought of tomorrow.

  14. bruce wilder

    five time factors: future, past positive, past negative, present hedonism, and present fatalism. A separate scale was developed to measure transcendental future orientation, to keep the ZTPI to a manageable length.

    ZTPI results indicate whether your time perspectives are weighed too heavily in any one or two time zones. This information gives you a good idea as to how to gain temporal balance. For instance, if past negative and present fatalism are the high scores, then boosting past positive, selected present hedonism and future time perspective orientations will help correct the imbalance.

    positive = good; negative = bad; desideratum = balance

    So, pretty standard generic pop psychology dreck, but maybe not without usefulness in generating useful insight

    For the vast majority of Americans, politically, the experience they are trying to rationalize or make sense of is a high degree of learned helplessness. As a member of various nested political collectives each with some degree of presumed agency and desired direction for the whole society and whole political culture (imagined prospectively in detail as the experience of individual, family, community, locality), I think the universal sense — progressive, conservative or (with important qualifications attached) centrist — is of not being able to get what you want, indeed what you think everyone “should” want together as shareholders in a common democratic enterprise.

    Americans are encouraged thru propaganda to believe the “other” group is preventing a good society from breaking out by their “bad think”. Someone has read an Ayn Rand novel and is forever immune to supporting effective aid to the homeless. Or, maybe the social paralysis is rooted in some college student having learned to say “settler-colonialism” correctly (grammatically) in a sentence.

    I think the fatalism of individual psychology is a product of failed, collective political processes. Democracy, as social machinery, has seized up. The cultural vocabulary and expectations of democracy are still current, but the reality of collective choice is a completely non-responsive, irresponsible government.

    The absence of a populist or socialist “left” from the American spectrum is a by-product of this learned helplessness. Actually solving an economic problem or changing a policy direction is by its very nature going to register as “left” but we cannot have that. There can be no alternative to the pointless controversies of the neoliberal right v the neoliberal left/center. For this state of affairs to continue, there must be no self-conscious responsibility or political memory. (False) hope and inertia are rooted in denial and amnesia about what came before, even if by your own hand (that is by the Party you aligned with).

  15. Feral Finster

    @Jan Wiklund:
    The way the europeans see it, take away the United States and they go from the Empire’s Special Little Buddies to a old folks home for metrosexuals, flavor-challenged has-beens that never shut up about long-past glories.

  16. bruce wilder

    @Jan Wiklund:

    As long as some important remnant of the social welfare state remains intact, most Europeans are simply not that concerned about the democratic deficit in their own governance. The eastern half never thought voting should matter anyway, but for the rest it is shocking in a way how complacent people can be.

  17. bruce wilder

    Chris Arnade, who “walks the world” taking photographs and writing observational essays, has a lot to say about the atomism of American life and urban/suburban landscapes. I thought it is an interesting view alongside the OP.

    https://open.substack.com/pub/walkingtheworld/p/america-and-public-disorder?

    Maybe it reads for some as right-wing, because it proposes an authoritarian paternalism that neoliberalism made alien to American politics.

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