Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

America’s Responsibility For The Gaza Genocide

Let’s keep it simple. From retired IDF general Yitzhak Brick:

“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the U.S. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”

Note the source here is a pro-Israeli one. Brick goes on to say:

Brick went on to explain that President Joe Biden’s demand that Israel permit “humanitarian aid” to enter Gaza means that he is demanding that Israel keep Hamas fully supplied with food, water and fuel.

His demand that Israel minimize Palestinian civilian casualties endangers IDF soldiers and renders the expansion of the ground offensive into central and southern Gaza, where the bulk of Hamas’s force is now located, almost impossible to carry out

So Brick isn’t putting responsibility on the US because he’s against the war or the atrocities. He’s all in.

The genocide is not possible without America’s support. That makes Biden and any politician who isn’t willing to stop sending Israel weapons and ammunition 100% a participant. If I supply the gun without which a murder cannot happen, knowing that it will be used for murder, I am directly responsible for the murder.

If Harris is not willing to cut off the supply of weapons and ammunition, she is not against the genocide, no matter how much she bewails the deaths.

And not just the deaths. It has become undeniable that Israel is systematically torturing and raping Palestinians, most of whom are non-combatants.

Palestine is the moral litmus test of the day, just as Iraq and South African apartheid were in their day. Eventually everyone will either pretend they were against it, or mea-culpa “how could I have known?”

But just as with Iraq, everyone who wanted to know, knew.

You’re either against genocide, rape and torture or you aren’t and there are no excuses which make any of it acceptable.


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Intelligence v.s. Judgment v.s. Creativity

There’s a lot of worship of intelligence in our society. Some of it is justified but much isn’t.

I’m reasonably intelligent: I’m at the level where I’m startled if someone is much smarter than I am; it doesn’t happen often.

But it does happen. There are people who make me feel stupid.

Intelligence is essentially two things: ability to perform mental operations, and speed of operation. A smart enough person can perform operations a less smart person can’t; can more swiftly learn how to do operations available to both, and processes faster.

Intelligence at its highest levels leads to polymaths: people who have mastered multiple subjects. All that speed matters.

Generally speaking, though, a smarter person will just get to the same conclusion a stupider person who knew the same things would get to faster. Think the kid at the front of class putting his hand up first.

Intelligence is not judgment or creativity.

Creativity is the ability to come up with new ideas or new combinations of ideas. Intelligence is a multiplier for creativity: the faster you perform mental operations the more ideas you can come up with, but if you don’t have creativity to multiply by, intelligence matters little.

Plenty of creative people are not at the highest levels of intelligence, especially if the type of creativity is largely artistic. But even many extremely intelligent scientists are just grinds who rarely come up with anything new: they work thru the implications of other people’s ideas and the current scientific paradigm in their field.

Judgement is the ability to know what ideas and mental operations are useful and appropriate. People without judgment apply the processes and paradigms they have learned and come up with “correct” answers which are wrong in the real world, or which are harmful.

For the paradigm of this think Larry Summers. Brilliant, but no judgment. He’s a reliable indicator of what you shouldn’t do because he applies the economic paradigm without any judgment, and since economics is a crap discipline to start with, being based on faulty axioms, he produces very intelligent garbage results. He’s a GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) machine.

Judgment tells you what old and new ideas are fruitful and what they’re fruitful for. Ideas are tools, you have to use the right ones for the job. World system analysis is worthless for day trading. Marxist class systems don’t explain societies well where the major cleavages are not along class lines, and so on. (Although they often claim to.) Keynesian economics doesn’t deal well with supply issues: it’s demand related, since that was the problem Keynes was dealing with at the time.

Intelligence is a multiplier for judgment, but if you have bad judgment, intelligence makes you more likely to get the wrong answer. Intelligence is jet fuel for foolishness.

Intelligence without judgment leads to ideas which fail to achieve their goals.

Intelligence without creativity leads to fast orthodox solutions.

Intelligence without creativity or judgment leads to new foolish ideas.


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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – August 18 2024

by Tony Wikrent

 

Strategic Political Economy

The world will lose $4.7 trillion of revenue in the next decade to tax havens. How did we get here? 

[The Business Standard, via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2024]

 

American Pharmaceutical Companies Aren’t Paying Any Tax in the United States

Brad W. Setser and Michael Weilandt [CFR, via Naked Capitalism 08-16-2024]

It is an undisputed fact that American pharmaceutical prices are the highest in the world…. However, those high prices do not translate into high reported profits in the United States. Rather the contrary: large pharmaceutical companies generally report losing money in the U.S….

So high prices strangely seem to correlate with large losses. This, of course, is a clear sign that pharmaceutical companies live in a world marked by transfer pricing and tax arbitrage….

The average effective tax rate paid in the U.S. (so U.S. tax paid versus global profit) was only 3 percent from 2018 to 2022, well below the typical effective tax paid in the US before the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (see the work of Senator Wyden and his staff for more details).

A Very Good Sign: Kamala Harris Is Going Right at Corporate Greed 

Nick Hanauer, August 16, 2024 [The New Republic]

… Greedy CEOs have milked the average American household for $12,000 since the pandemic. As a businessman, I can explain how they’re doing it. …if you compare corporate profits in 2019 to the last four years, you’ll find corporations have gouged their way to an almost unbelievable $1.5 trillion in excess profits since 2020—that’s in addition to their pre-pandemic profit rates.

That means the average American household has paid an eye-popping $12,000 in higher prices solely to pump up quarterly corporate profit margins. To put that figure into perspective, $12,000 could buy the average American household more than two years’ worth of groceries….

Over the last two years, CEOs learned they could get away with padding their profits by keeping prices high. We have really great evidence that this is what’s been happening, because CEOs admitted this is what’s been happening.

For example, Procter & Gamble chief financial officer Andre Schulten bragged during a 2023 earnings call that even though the company’s input costs to make diapers had decreased, they were still keeping consumer prices high….

This corporate embrace of price gouging is a new and troubling development in American capitalism. And this is an area I know something about.

I’ve founded, financed, and/or run 43 different companies, spanning a dozen different industries…. I’m deeply acquainted with all the tricks of the trade when it comes to corporate profit margins.

But I’ve never seen executives exult in raising prices like this….

The chasm between corporate costs and profits has never been greater in my lifetime:

Immediately before the pandemic, corporate profits were 9.7 percent of the total gross domestic product. From 2020 to 2023, they spiked to an average 11.2 percent of annual GDP. The disparity between those two numbers amounts to a jaw-dropping $1.5 trillion more of our economy that was transferred over to corporate profits in the last four years.

That money was picked directly from the pockets of American families, who each paid $12,000 more to plump the profit margins of corporations (and that’s not even counting the excess APR rates that have cost the average credit card user $946 over the same four-year period)….

 

Global power shift

China is on track to overtake France and the United States as the world’s leading source of atomic power 

[BNE Intellinews, via Naked Capitalism 08-15-2024]

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

The Narrative Noise To Signal Ratio Is Deliberately Out Of Control

When I saw SPK blogging here, I couldn’t resist the Auld Lang Syne and asked Ian for permission to post sometimes. I wrote for the Agonist in the 2000s.

I’ve followed Whitney Webb since she wrote for MintPress News and find her to be an extremely informative and critical voice, especially about the nexus of tech and finance. Her work frequently frightens me and if I were a Titan of Silicon Valley I would certainly want her silenced.

Her post on Twitter earlier this week caught my eye because it revealed a sort of fuckery that was new to me:

Whitney Webb

Instead of blanket censorship, I am having YouTube bury all my actual interviews/content with videos that use short, out of context clips from interviews to promote things I would never and have never said. Below is what happens when you search my name on YouTube, every single one is a scammy video using my words and likeness to shill everything from shitcoins to insane predictions I’d never make. Collectively, they have gotten millions of views.

YouTube seems to be adopting an AI version of “security through obscurity” to bury the work of Webb and other dissenting voices. This approach won’t work if it’s your only means of concealing valuables or trade secrets.

But if the only goal is to make it harder for Webb’s audience to find her work, it’s a nasty new wrinkle.

Coming in a context of other tweets about Germany’s up is down policies declaring Jews who oppose genocide in Palestine to be anti-semites, a nominally left wing publication disinforming their readers about Brazil’s Lula, relentless economic gaslighting, a seemingly cooked-up online conflict between Black Americans and Palestinians, and the MI6 blaming Russia for the UK’s recent racist pogroms, it was like being the narrator of an H.P. Lovecraft story who’s just discovered some horrible new tentacle of Cthulhu but you know you’ll sound crazy if you try to explain it to your friends or family.

The End Of Presumptive Anti-Semitism

Let’s start with something very simple: Israel is committing a genocide is Palestine, and the Israeli state was founded by terrorists and has always been based on ethnic cleansing.

After World War II there was a huge backlash against anti-semitism: prejudice against Jews, because we had seen it end in Germany’s gas chambers. The Zionists used that in their project to take another people’s land for their own: to stand against a Jewish country after the Holocaust seemed wrong.

But this is a case of kindergarten ethics: two wrongs not making a right. The Zionists (not the Jews, the Zionists) stole another people’s land and did so violently.

Then, especially from the 67 on, they engaged in vicious apartheid, and continued to steal the land and homes of Palestinians.

May story of Palestine

After the first Intifada they started routinely killing Palestinians, along with other atrocious behaviour.

I have stated and firmly believe that the current death toll from the Gaza war is in the hundreds of thousands. You can check out the methodology here. They are certainly nowhere near as low as the official death count of something over 40K.

This is the result of deliberate starvation; attacks on hospitals till there is only one left slightly operating; cutting off medicine and water; herding refugees into high density camps then attacking them; shutting off water, and policies intended to lead to plague. All of these policies are entirely deliberate and done with knowledge of their certain effect.

Now let’s talk about anti-semitism v.s. anti-Zionism.

One is ethnic hatred: “Jews are evil.” The other opposes a political movement, “there should be a Jewish apartheid State on land taken from other people.”

Zionism started with ethnic cleansing and has moved on to genocide. To not be anti-Zionist is to be, at best, a moral imbecile and more commonly is a depraved political stance. That stance starts at “I’m OK with genocide” and ends with “I support genocide.”

The next issue is that accusations of anti-semitism have been weaponized. I lost my patience when they were used to take out Corbyn, who was in no way anti-semitic and if there were a Holocaust would be one of the people willing to die to try and stop it. We’ve seen how every protest against the Gazan genocide has been labelled anti-semitic.

So ordinary, moral people, have stopped having a default belief in accusations of anti-semitism because the vast majority of such accusations are now attempts, in effect, to use the Holocaust and people’s repugnance at what led to it to justify ethnic cleansing and another genocide.

Further if there is a rise of anti-semitism in the world, it can be laid 99% percent at the feet of Israel, Zionism and those who cover for the Gaza genocide. When a country wrapping itself in the fig-leaf of “we’re the Jewish nation” undeniably commits a genocide then accuses those who protest of hating Jews and Judaism, some people will fail to make the Zionist/Jewish distinction. “They say they’re Jews, and that Judaism permits this, so  Judaism is bad,” such people will think.

The greatest enemy Jews and Judaism have and the greatest creator of anti-semitism in the world is Israel. And anyone and any nation supporting them is helping create more anti-semitism.

All ideologies aren’t bad, though all can go bad, but Zionism was born with ill will: it was always the project to steal the land and homes of another people.

To Sum Up

Zionism is an ideology which starts with ethnic cleansing as its base. Evil.

Judaism is a religion, which, like almost all religions, can be used to justify evil, but is pointed more towards the good. Hillel’s “Whatever is hateful and distasteful to you, do not do to your fellow man” would have prevented this entire sickening mess, and is far more representative of Judaism than the Zionist perversion.

Jews are an ethnic religious group (there are lots of secular Jews), who are no more intrinsically evil or good than any other group.

Anti-semitism is bad, like all racism.

Anti-Zionism is good, like all opposition to ethnic cleansing and genocide.


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Short Take: Symposium on the Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion

Over at Responsible Statecraft there is a symposium on the Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion and what it means down the road. I read all the entries and there is a general consensus that in the long run the incursion is more likely than not a strategic mistake. And then every single one of the commenters (except one) adds their “but” to the conversation. Obviosuly, I tend to see the world as John Mearsheimer does, but found the symposium a useful tool to gauge the thoughts of International Relations scholars across the spectrum. As I said, there is a general consensus. Give it a read, it’ll only cost you 15 minutes, tops.

The Short-Sightedness Of Destroying BioDiversity

I ran across an article on a century old collection of grain seeds. Seems that saving them may turn out to be important:

A UK-Chinese collaboration has sequenced the DNA of all the 827 kinds of wheat, assembled by Watkins, that have been nurtured at the John Innes Centre near Norwich for most of the past century.

In doing so, scientists have created a genetic goldmine by pinpointing previously unknown genes that are now being used to create hardy varieties with improved yields that could help feed Earth’s swelling population.

Strains are now being developed that include wheat which is able to grow in salty soil, while researchers at Punjab Agricultural University are working to improve disease resistance from seeds that they received from the John Innes Centre. Other strains include those that would reduce the need for nitrogen fertilisers, the manufacture of which is a major source of carbon emissions.

“Essentially we have uncovered a goldmine,” said Simon Griffiths, a geneticist at the John Innes Centre and one of the project’s leaders.

“This is going to make an enormous difference to our ability to feed the world as it gets hotter and agriculture comes under increasing climatic strain.”

If some obsessive, one individual, hadn’t collected these seeds, then an institution had kept them safe, we’d be a lot more likely to starve in the future.

The most bio-diverse land ecosystem are rainforests, and we’re cutting them down, destroying entire ecosystems. Destroying ecosystems is like burning your house to save on heating bills. Leaving aside all the climate change issues, and that collapsing ecosystems may lead to collapse of life support for humans, each animal, plant, microbe or insect we make extinct has the potential to have genes which could lead to scientific advances: not just in food crops but in medicine and if we don’t have civilization collapse, for gene therapies and enhancements of incalculable value to humanity.

Increased longevity, faster healing, improved immune systems, greater heat or cold tolerance and far, far more could be lost because of this short sightedness.

It took hundreds of millions of years to create such a diverse web of life, and on the human scale, once it’s gone, it’s gone and we aren’t getting it back.

We should either stop (we aren’t going to) or at the least preserve samples of everything we can, in vaults designed to run for at least centuries with minimal human support and without requiring more than simple maintenance. If we’re young enough, the lives we save might be our own, if not our grandchildren and later descendants will thank us, and, just perhaps, we might may be able to bring back to life some of the species we are currently genociding.


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