Open Thread

Secretary Kennedy – I know it’s the weekend, but don’t you have something more important to do ?

I went down to the local store
to get myself some grits
but my EBT card don’t work no more
being poor’s the shits
dumpster diving’s not a sport
but whatcha gonna do
when it’s your last resort
you’ll end up eating poo
going hungry hurts the heart and mind
nobody’s living free and easy
it ain’t right and it ain’t kind
It’s just mean and sleazy
hungry on the mean streets
even rats are growing slim
Halloween’s all tricks no treats
yeah, it’s looking kind of grim
here in the land of the not so free
begging for a scrap, begging for a dime
they’ll throw your ass in jail
and you’ll be doing time
eating shit for real with the devil on your tail
ain’t it grand living in America
going hungry in America
living on the streets of America
where there’s a dumpster waiting for you and me
glory glory hallelujah
they’re gonna give it to ya
straight up where the sun don’t shine
don’t you worry don’t you mind
OD on fentanyl and you’ll be just fine.

Ok. Probably shouldn’t hit send with this cheap rhyme, but hey, I’m old enough and reckless enough to not give a flying fock.
Enjoy what your life and what you’ve got while you’ve got it.
Everything fades away.

Wait, no. Can’t leave on a downer note. Be kind, tolerant, patient and don’t take it personally. Give fealty love and devotion like our canine friends. Be a noble friend to all. Something like that.

Oh look, it’s more AI-generated slop from Oakchair. Let’s play a game and see how much we have to read before we find a lie or a distortion.

Well, will you look at that, there’s one at the very beginning. Guillian-Barre Syndrome (GBS) is an extremely rare side effect of the influenza vaccine. But what Oakchair doesn’t tell you is that the risk of GBS from influenza infection is significantly higher than the risk from the vaccine. (See: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-abstract/58/8/1149/355966). A lie by omission is still a lie.

If we typed “Create an anti-vaccine post with some vaguely condescending quotes at the beginning and end” into Chat GPT and pasted it into the open thread every week, that would be functionally identical to Oakchair’s participation on this blog.

. . . ” That’s why people refuse to take the topic seriously and troll. ”

I know you are, but what am I?

I know you do, but what do I?

Oakchair,

It would be really cool if you would directly engage with the counterclaim from NR that the risk of developing GBS following an influenza infection is significantly higher than the risk of GBS following an influenza vaccination. NR provided a link to a study to back that up and below I’m pasting the abstract (summary) that clearly states that this is the case.

*************************************

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is the most common cause of acute flaccid paralysis worldwide, and is thought to be immune-mediated. It is preceded by upper respiratory or gastrointestinal infection in about two-thirds of cases and is associated with some viral infections, including influenza. GBS has also been associated with the 1976 swine-influenza vaccine. Thereafter, some studies have shown a small increased risk of GBS following receipt of seasonal and 2009 H1N1 monovalent influenza vaccines. Studies over the years have also shown an increased risk of GBS following influenza infection, and the magnitude of risk is several times greater than that following influenza vaccination. Because GBS is rare, and even rarer following vaccination, it is difficult to estimate precise risk. We try to shed light on the complex relationship of GBS and its association with influenza and influenza vaccines over the past 35 years.

Thanks to mago for the “State of the Union” update, though that drug called “Exceptionalism” has kept blinders over many people’s eyes during their entire existence. It’s getting hotter in Hell USA, some of the little doggies in the coffee shop refuse to admit it and say “This is fine.”

Thanks to KT Chong for the take on the “Piece (of ass, the younger the better) President’s” war fever. He seems to be teeing up on Venezuela soon, but thankfully there aren’t any competent players in his NatSec Reindeer Games, so I doubt in the long term it’ll go better than his last shambolic effort, late in term 1, “The Bay of Piglets.” Even Wikipedia can’t much polish that turd into anything appetizing, see the link if you’ve forgotten “Operation Gideon.” Sick how these idiots focus on Biblical gobbledy-gook, Netanyahu’s recent “Gideon’s Chariot” debacle caused many IDF deaths, maimings and suicides, with negligible if any success. Bay of Piglets here– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_(2020)

Mercouris devoted some of his podcast time yesterday to this topic, thinks there won’t be any success, or if there is it will be temporary and Pyrrhic. He next moved on to Zelensky’s madness (Trump is insane, I think Zelensky has backed off on the coke he was obviously using a couple years’ back, but he seems utterly bonkers, beyond even Trump level) regarding the ongoing Russian victory in Potrovsk, 80% captured. His scriptwriters tried a Narrative Victory, geolocation showed that the Elite Team flown in on a Blackhawk helicopter at night was several miles North of areas the Russians currently fight for. Nonetheless, they sent in a swarm of drones and missiles, the helicopter was destroyed almost immediately and the 10 men on it were all eliminated, badly wounded or captured (per Russian video contradicting the Ukrainian video) as to be expected.

Zelensky says the Russians don’t have a huge cauldron and aren’t winning, the maps are all wrong, the Ukrainians are taking back land, blah blah yadda yadda. If a bear is charging toward you in the woods, just pretend it’s a small kitten and you will be fine. Meantime many professional soldiers on the Ukro side say what much of the professional military commentariat do: that Ukraine is collapsing slowly, may last until Spring, but likely not much longer. Some high level officials admit the truth, some are even defecting and leaving the country.

Meantime Trump’s popularity has tanked at home, there is no consumer confidence and people (apart from the 0.1% and Zionists paying $7,000 a pop for online/ podcast Hasbara) aren’t spending money. Xi cornered King Donald in S. Korea and the US has credibility only with insane fascists (Merz, Von der Lyin, people straight out of 3rd Reich Central casting.) The other day 1 IDF soldier was shot and Israel attacked and killed at least 104 in Gaza, reportedly 62 were children. But Peace Pres. Donald says his “Cease Fire” (for one side only) is holding. No word on the “Board of Peace” meeting, nor will Hezbollah, Al-Qassam, et al disband. No appearance of Bush Jr’s shoe-cleaning boy Tony B.liar turning up in Gaza either . . . funny (not really) that he’s now a Trump bff. Trump said the Bush Forever Wars were a mistake, helped him beat Shrillary, but now he pushes multiple, episodic Forever Wars. More time on camera is victory enough for him.

Donny’s great at declaring victory and greatness. But it’s all sand castles and kayfabe. The Right Wing imagined they’d get Greatness, they get a fatter Emperor Norton.

Just to clarify my earlier comments, an unconditional probability estimate in the neighborhood of 1% is not useful. For someone who contracts GBS, due to infection with influenza virus, whether from vaccine or natural contagion, the probability of GBS became 100%. The useful thing to know would be the circumstances — the preconditions — that elevated risk from < 1% (useless information) to 100% (very relevant to behavior and choice).

I’ve noticed that “elite overproduction” seems to be getting referenced a lot more in political discussions. I associate the concept with the historian Peter Turchin. I am sure it is not original with him. Turchin’s own handling of the concept is too clunky for my taste. But, I have noticed that the concept seems to be expanding as more of the American Empire’s political dysfunction is attributed to “elite overproduction”.

Turchin links “the wealth pump” and “elite overproduction” as co-explanators of political instability and (violent) conflict. The first immiserates and the second creates a case of too many would-be leaders competing for power and position. Both processes imply consequences for social mobility.

Where I first noticed the concept expanding significantly was when I saw it being linked with emerging idiocracy. People are connecting “elite overproduction” with disparate trends like college grade inflation, the rapid decline of literacy among entering college students, the loss of trust in public institutions and loss of institutional competence, Harvard gutting its PhD programs, the feminization of professions and some corporate business, the neo-feudalism ideology some think has emerged in Silicon Valley, the AI mania, the cryptocurrency fad, and probably a bunch of others I am missing.

My image of historical “elite overproduction” was the British Civil Wars of the 17th century or the 18th century French Revolution.

In the caricatures of those periods I have in my head, I associate the old regime with incompetence and the new men with education and competence.

So, the idea that “elite overproduction” might introduce as candidates for roles of authority and responsibility many more candidates ill-suited and ill-trained and ill-prepared was an “aha moment” for me when I suddenly saw that aspect highlighted frequently. It does seem to explain a lot.

Maybe that is just my naivety, but it seems especially interesting right now.

NR and Oakchair, it really is a delight to observe your jousting. As the degenerate imperium shrivels up, I appreciate this recurring episodic treat while it lasts.

It is estimated that Tehran, thke capital and largest city in Iran will run out of drinking water in 2 weeks. This is according to an article linked by Climate and Economy, A couple of years ago Cape Town was in a similar situation. Need I mention which side of the world power struggle these countries are on. Need I mlention that going forward the water situation is not likely to improve for either Iran or South Africa.