Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to move Palestinians out of Gaza and that there are about 1.7 to 1.8 million people to move. The pre-war population of Gaza was 2.3 million. About 100,000 Gazans managed to flee to the Sinai in Egypt (presumably a combination of bribes and sympathetic border guards who disagree with Sisi’s “let them die” policy.
So we’re looking at 400,000 to 500,000 deaths if Trumps figures are accurate. Yes, I know, Trump: but he’s been briefed and why use those numbers?
That is to say that the indirect death multiplier is almost certainly higher than average in Gaza. So let’s assume just slightly higher than average: an eight times multiplier.
Now do the math 8*60,000=480,000.
A reasonable estimate of the death toll in Gaza is thus 480,000 people. Almost half a million and about seventeen percent of the pre-war population.
The idea that the death toll was around 50K was always ludicrous, given the constant bombing, lack of food, destruction of hospitals, deliberate murder of doctors and nurses, disease and lack of water.
I would assume the death rate was accelerating and if the genocide had gone on would have continued to accelerate: starvation, disease and lack of water tend to work that way.
Meanwhile, having stopped most of the bombing, Trump wants the US to take over Gaza and rebuild it as a resort, as best I can tell. His son in law, Jared Kushner, in February of 2024 said:
“Gaza’s waterfront property could be valuable… It’s a little bit of an unfortunate situation there, but I think from #Israel‘s perspective, I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up.”
This requires either Jordan or Egypt to take the Palestinians, and neither of them want them, since they’re destabilizing and will also strain budgets. America can offer money, but America’s promises have become increasingly… erratic of late. Egypt, of course, already receives a ton of money from America in exchange for peace with Israel, but Palestinians being pushed into Egypt would violate the treaty which started those payments.
Bear in mind that Hamas is an offshoot of the Islamic Brotherhood, Sisi’s mortal enemies whom he couped in order to become “President.”
And the Palestinians may not all go voluntarily, so military force will be needed, presumably American boots on the ground.
This plan is very obviously ethnic cleansing, which is evil. It is, however, the lesser evil compared to Biden’s “keep them locked up and bomb and starve them all to death”, which would have presumably continued if Harris had one. Hard to say how this will play out, Trump might well let Israel go back to full on genocide, but so far it appears that Trump was the “lesser evil” at least as far as Gaza is concerned.
Egypt needs to be talking to the Chinese about aid, stat and figure out what they can offer the Chinese. Though a chance to poke a finger in Trump’s eye is likely appealing to Xi right about now. Trump has no respect for treaty obligations and will definitely threaten Egypt’s funding to force an acquiescence.
Meanwhile Turkey, Egypt and Iran all need to get off their asses and get nukes.
different clue
Unless Trump means to let a few hundred thousand Palestinians stay there while moving out 1.7 to 1.8 million people. Perhaps that is what Trump means and what Trump thinks.
Either way, essentially no Palestinians will leave willingly. When faced with that, what will Trump do or try greenlighting Israel to do?
I didn’t keep close track of Trump decades ago when he was building his Casinos in Atlantic City. I gather he tried and mostly succeeded pushing out a few hundred inconvenient people who were “in the way” of ” beautiful wonderful magnificent” project.
I feel confident that Trump would try evicting 1.7 or 1.8 million Palestinians from Gaza so that his son in law could make serious money Rivierafying that beautiful waterfront. And he thinks he can do it without emotion, just like those couple hundred Atlantic Citians.
If he tried ordering the U S Army to do it, through his chosen ( and Senate-ratified) creature Hegseth, would the U S Army say ” Sir Yes Sir” or would the U S Army say ” Okay, its Seven-Days-In-May time”? Donald “the Joker” Trump might well push it that far just to see what happens.
StewartM
Trump didn’t “stop the bombing”. Bibi had agreed to what Biden had always proposed, but waited until Trump was president and gave the credit to Trump, as he knew he had a friendly ear in the US so that the ethnic cleansing could continue. Geez.
j
Looks to me more like the genocide by starvation is being continued in Gaza, while the violence is being ramped up on West Bank. Ceasefire sure is one way to sell it.
Tc
Seeing as foreign aid from US is so unreliable, what’s to stop China from stepping in as Egypt’s sugar daddy? I suspect that is Trump’s game, as with breaking up NATO, also see todays increased rumors that some factions in whitehouse want to concede Taiwan to China in some sort of deal. Of course there would have to be all sorts kabuki before Egypt aligns with China, but I think US will be totally isolated by end of Trump 2.0.
Funny that nobody even dares suggest the Palestinians be relocated in Israel during bullshit rebuilding. Or, you could kick out all the illegal settlers in west bank and Im sure there would be plenty of housing for the Gazans. The starting position seems to be Israel gets off scott free. Doesnt even occur to anybody. Not that that’s a surprise. In Nov 2023 it was also unthinkable that the genocidal drooling dotard not run or even face a primary until 8 months later when the DD drooled all over the stage at the debates.
mago
Yeah, Tc whole lotta drooling going on.
I do miss my dogs.
KT Chong
If Trump wants to force Palestinians to leave their homes, why shouldn’t America be the one to take in Palestinian refugees? That seems to be the fair arrangement.
Soredemos
I think this raises the question of what Israel wants to actually do with Gaza, in terms of practical specifics. Just turn it into more of what Israel already has? Or a giant resort town?
Whatever they do, I’ll make a deliberate point of never visiting it. Shouldn’t be too hard to avoid.
Z
When people were crediting Miriam Adelson’s Personal Pedicurist for “getting tough” with Bibi and bullying him into a ceasefire, I thought to myself: just wait. Juuuuuust wait. Because I knew that it was all an act to give Toe-Jamb Trump the cover to later cede to Israel some greater gift. How would one know? Because Bibi would have had to buy off on the deal since Israel calls the shots and there would have to be some overall benefit to Israel for Bibi to agree to it.
So, the production team of Weekend at Biden’s, led by Count Antony Blinken, provided the bombs to Israel to level Gaza and now Toe-Jamb Trump is coming to “help” the Palestinians by forcing them out for their own “safety”, giving the ones who are still alive “a better life”. What a guy/goyim! The two administrations detest each other, but yet their actions are complimentary to each other’s because they’re not the ones moving the pieces, they’re only the bought off and blackmailed pawns for the greater Israel cause.
I guess to be super cynical, one could say that it is good for the US economy in some ways though. Money printed up to pay to build the bombs to blow the place to smithereens and now more money created to build back what’s been blown up. Consistent with modern US economic cycles, one might mention: blow up the economy with financial market bubbles and then rebuild it by blowing other bubbles, which are all facilitated by the Fed’s printing press or, to be more, accurate, their deft fingertips.
Z
Revelo
>why shouldn’t America be the one to take in Palestinian refugees? That seems to be the fair arrangement.
Also the only arrangement that will actually work long-term. Trump ran on limiting immigration but, like any politician, he can always break his promise. Allowing resettlement in USA is a way to depopulate Gaza (and West Bank) of everyone not fully committed to the idea of a Palestinian state. Israel can then legitimately claim Palestinians remaining in Gaza and West Bank are fanatics, which justifies resuming the genocide.
Mary Bennet
KT Chong, that is the one thing which would turn Trump’s core support against him. He ran on closing borders, no more massive immigration. Impeachment and removal from office would likely follow. It may be impolite to say it aloud, but Moslem migrants have, by and large, not made themselves welcome here.
I of course agree that the Trump proposed real estate deal is an outrage. I think it is his price for giving Bibi the war with Iran he so badly craves.
Paul Damascene
Watching the Orange One with Bibi, it occurred to me that the the Israeli Zionist crime family might be in the process of being shouldered aside by a US Jewish billionaire racketeers tired of watching the Israelis fuck things up.
Revelo
Perfect place in USA to resettle Palestinians would be Salton Sea area. Salton Sea was filled when the Colorado River overflowed in 1905, then it remained filled thereafter from irrigation runoff. In the 1950’s, Salton Sea was a popular resort area. Later, irrigation runoff declined and lake started to dry up and is now a pestilential slough. Because it is below sea level and near the Gulf of California, it would be trivial to refill it with sea water. Some of the sea water could be desalinating using solar energy, which is abundant in that desert area, to provide for a new city. Trump could arrange for his cronies to cheaply buy up the desert land nearby before announcing a Make Salton Sea Great Again plan, whereby a new city for Palestinians would be built using money that would otherwise have been used to rebuild Democrat-infested areas of Los Angeles which burned recently.
Revelo
According to Rezident (Ukrainian Telegram channel), Zelensky/Ermak offered USA to take Palestinians into Ukraine in exchange for more money and weapons. Zelensky/Ermak have previously offered to sell all of Ukraine’s mineral resources and government owned real estate for more money and weapons. Trump’s representatives were supposedly interested in all these proposals.
Z
The US Jewish billionaires love Israel. One of the biggest reasons they love it is that the NSA sends all the info they get from US citizens’ communications straight to the Mossad (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/11/nsa-americans-personal-data-israel-documents) and the US Jewish billionaires can therefore get dirt on whomever they want from the Mossad or, more likely, off of the plethora of intelligence, security, and/or surveillance private companies in Israel that are frequently run by ex-Mossad who can get that info from their contacts in the Mossad. Better that way than risk getting busted for bribing and/or blackmailing someone in the NSA or CIA.
Z
Z
Of course, Zelensky and Yermak are willing to take Palestinians in to help their homies in Israel. And, of course, they are willing to sell all Ukraine’s mineral resources to their homies Larry Fink and Stanley Fisher (former head of the Israel central bank and his homie Yellen’s former second at the Fed) from Larry’s and Stanley’s Asset Inflation Factory BlackRock. And, of course, the man who sponsored Zelensky in the first place to become president was Zelensky’s, Yermak’s, Fink’s, Fisher’s, and Yellen’s homie Kolomoisky. And, of course, the top three foreign affairs officials at the State Department during the Weekend at Biden’s Administration, the crew who pushed so hard for the war with Russia and have given so much US money and weapons to Zelensky to continue the war, were Zelensky’s, Yermak’s, Fink’s, Fisher’s, Yellen’s, and Kolomoisky’s homies Count Antony Blinken, the Uncrowned Queen of Ukraine Victoria Nuland-Kagan, and Wendy Sherman.
And Miriam Adelson’s Personal Pedicurist and Bibi might just take Zelensky and Yermak up on their offer.
Of course …
Z
KT Chong
U.S. foreign policies have a history and pattern of backfiring over time; recently, the backfiring—or karma—has come much sooner. For instance, U.S. support for Afghan Mujahedeen fighters against the Soviet Union ultimately led to 9/11 and 20 years of the War on Terror.
I’ve imagined how the Ukraine War could backfire on the U.S. and NATO. The CIA has been training Ukrainians as spies, infiltrators, assassins, special forces, and urban guerrilla fighters. Many Ukrainians are already involved in various crime syndicates across Europe. When the war is over and settled, many disillusioned and experienced Ukrainian fighters may end up in crime syndicates and mafia gangs across Europe, further destabilizing the region. Over time, many of them will realize that the US and NATO had manipulated and used them as the tools to weaken Russia, and they may become vengeful against the US and EU. I imagine this would be the karma for the EU and NATO—much like how the migrant crisis is the karma for NATO’s destruction of Libya.
Now, Zelensky has supposedly offered to accept Palestinian refugees in exchange for more money and weapons for Ukraine. Palestinians, who must blame Europe (and America) for being complicit in the Gaza Genocide, will no doubt become another destabilizing force in Europe.
KT Chong
Mary Bennet: “KT Chong, that is the one thing which would turn Trump’s core support against him. He ran on closing borders, no more massive immigration. Impeachment and removal from office would likely follow. It may be impolite to say it aloud, but Moslem migrants have, by and large, not made themselves welcome here.”
Of course I know Trump is not going to accept any Palestinian refugees into America. I was just pointing out the sheer arrogance and hypocrisy of demanding other countries to accept Palestinians especially because it’s AMERICAN that created and exacerbated the problem.
Common sense—the sense of basic human decency and fairness—dictates that if Trump wants Palestinians to leave Gaza, then it is America that should have to take in those refugees. That’s only FAIR.
Z
The notion that Israel’s rabid attack Rottweiler is truly going to own Gaza once they rebuild it is a fanciful one, I must say.
Instead, it’ll work like this:
1. The production team of Weekend at Biden’s supplies the bombs and support to Israel to kill Palestinians and level Gaza. (CHECK)
2. Miriam Adelson’s Personal Pedicurist runs the Palestinians out and commits to rebuilding Gaza (and the Palestinians who don’t leave on their own or can’t be rounded up will be killed by bombs that he is supplying Israel).
3. Once it is rebuilt and redeveloped, some future administration … whether it be democrat or republican … will renege or renegotiate in some way on whatever sham agreement Trump made to make the territory the US’s … which was never meant to be upheld, only to be consistent with Trump’s “America First” marketing ethos … and the land will end up being Israel’s one way or another, possibly by them “purchasing” it from the US with money the US will provide them in some fashion or another.
This is why you saw Bibi smiling like a butcher’s dog when Trump announced his plans …
Z
Revelo
> Palestinians, who must blame Europe (and America) for being complicit in the Gaza Genocide, will no doubt become another destabilizing force in Europe
USA will be okay with this. Before abandoning Ukraine, USA must be absolutely sure that Europe will never unite against USA and become a fourth major pole of power (after China and Russia) and cut deals with those other poles independently of USA. So USA needs to guarantee permanent disunity, internal disorder and weakness in Europe. Ukrainian terrorism and mafia activities certainly helps with this. Eventual Palestinians exodus from Ukraine to Germany and further west also fits with USA goal. In fact, after resettling Palestinians in Ukraine, then arranging peace in Ukraine, USA could arrange a swap of Ukrainians in western Europe for Palestinians in Ukraine as part of the peace deal, so as to speed up this exodus of potential troublemakers to the EU.
Purple Library Guy
One thread I’m seeing running through the comments here is lots of people who seem to be thinking of themselves as benevolent, figuring they should be deciding what happens to Palestinians. I guess Palestinians being in on the decision making is off the page, huh?
Fact is, the Palestinians have had people from around the world trying to tell them what to do for decades. They have gotten very used to ignoring those people. Anyone who was willing to leave and a lot who weren’t, left decades ago. They’re not moving, and anyone whose plan involves paternalistically telling them “Oh, we can settle you in (Africa, a crappy piece of California, Egypt, whatever)” is going to find out that that isn’t happening.