The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Uncategorized Page 6 of 114

Short Take On Possible/Probable War On Iran

~by Sean Paul Kelley

I don’t know if we’re going to bomb Iran or not. I hope we don’t but hope is not a policy. All I’m left with is my personal experience in Iran and how I go about analyzing foreign affairs.

As many of you know, I’m a realist. Once upon a time, my realism was based on the correlation of powers and what the United States could and couldn’t do with its capabilities so long as they were in line with political adjectives that were achievable.

Today I’m a realist, a chastened realist; more a pragmatist who has withnessed war after war after war lost. I’ve witnessed “Western powers often wage wars disconnected from achievable political outcomes (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya),” instead of aligning the wars with achievable political aims. You know, the exact opposite of Uncle Carl Clausewitz!

Moreoever, my hardcore realism has ameliorated over the years after several long discussions with Ian. Ian’s never been afraid to upbraid me publicly and privately for my quasi imperial impulses. I’m grateful to Ian for helping me see the error of my ways.

But I digress.

I know for certain two things will happen if we attack Iran.

First, based on my experience in Iran, the Iranians will rally around their legitimate government and support it to the end. When I was there the Iranians were warm and engaging. Even the Mullahs at the mosques we visited. But when it came to the subject of US interference in internal Iranian affairs, all were a unified voice: stay out of our government. Seems like a reasonable request, if you ask me.

Take a close look at the photo. A young couple enjoying pizza with my father and I in 2006. This is who we’ll be kiling. They have faces and names.

Second, we will use an enormous amount of ordinance attacking Iran and leave ourselves even more vulnerable than we already are because we have such a shitty military industrial complex that can’t make anything without a long lead time and shit tons of profits. Our defense industry is dominated by general and flag officers on the grift.

Like I said, I don’t know if we’re just posturing or if we’re really gonna attack.

I hope we’re not but I’m afraid we are.

Nota bene: In the comments Nat mentions a depressing X thread worth a read. But if you really want to be depressed check this X thread out where Col. Wilkerson says, “I think Israel will cease to exist unless Netanyahu does turn to a nuclear weapon or two.”

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 15, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 15, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

They’re not capitalists — they’re predatory criminals

Why The Epstein Scandal Is Really A Billionaire Scandal – Barry’s Economics (YouTube)

Barry Ferns, Feb 8, 2026 [YouTube]

Everyone thinks Jeffrey Epstein was an aberration. The science says he was inevitable. This video breaks down the neuroscience, psychology, and economics that explain how extreme wealth concentration doesn’t just create inequality. but manufactures monsters.

00:00 – Introduction: The Elephant in the Room

02:04 – Part One: Power Rewires the Brain

03:30 – Part Two: The Empathy Gap and Isolation

05:19 – Part Three: Moral Licensing

08:13 – Part Four: Structural Impunity

10:50 – Part Five: Manufacturing Vulnerability

12.54 – Part Six: The Epstein Economy

15:53 – Stand-up Comedy Relief

The Epstein class and collapse porn 

Cory Doctorow, 09 Feb 2026 [Pluralistic]

… The latest batch of Epstein emails includes a particularly ghoulish exchange between Epstein and his business partner, the anti-democracy activist and billionaire Peter Thiel:

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00824843.pdf

The email is dated 26 Jun 2016, right after Brexit, and in it, Epstein writes:

  • “… return to tribalism . counter to globalization. amazing new alliances. you and I both agreed zero interest rates were too high, as i said in your office. finding things on their way to collapse , was much easier than finding the next bargain….”

This is a perfect example of what Naomi Klein calls “disaster capitalism.” It’s been the norm since the crash of 2008, when bankers were made whole through public bailouts and mortgage holders were evicted by the millions to “foam the runway” for the banks:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2012/08/how-treasury-secretary-geithner-foamed-the-runways-with-childrens-shattered-lives/

The crash of 2008 turned a lot of people’s homes – their only substantial possessions – into “distressed assets” that were purchased at fire-sale prices by Wall Street investors, who turned around and rented those homes out to people who were now priced out of the housing market at rents that kept them too poor to ever afford a home, under slum conditions that crawled with insects and black mold:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/10/01/housing-is-a-human-right/

Note here that economic collapse helps the Epstein class only if society has no social safety net. If Obama had supported homeowners instead of banks, there wouldn’t have been a foreclosure crisis and thus there wouldn’t have been any “distressed assets” flooding the market.

So it’s no surprise that the Epstein class are also obsessed with austerity. Peter Mandelson (British Labour’s “Prince of Darkness”) is a close ally of Epstein’s, and also a key figure in the crushing austerity agenda of Blair, Brown and Starmer. He’s a machine for turning Parliamentary majorities into distressed assets at scale….

The thousand-plus children that Epstein lured to his island rape-camp were often “distressed assets” in their own right: Julie K Brown’s groundbreaking reporting on Epstein for the Miami Herald described how he sought out children whose parents were poor, or neglectful, or both, on the grounds that those children would be “on their way to collapse,” too.

The Epstein class’s commitment to destroying “The Economy” makes sense when you understand that trashing civilization is “much easier than finding the next bargain.” They want to buy the dip, so they’re creating the dip.

They don’t need the whole number to go up, just theirs. They know that inclusive economies are more prosperous for society as a whole, but it makes criminals and predators worse off. The New Deal kicked off a period of American economic growth never seen before or since, but the rich despised it, because a prosperous economy is one in which it gets harder and harder to find “things on their way to collapse,” and thus nearly impossible to “find[] the next bargain.”

[TW: On October 30, 2025 Patriotic Millionaires posted a summary of modern studies which prove the corrupting power of wealth. But the problem of the psycho-pathology of the rich has been known for centuries:

[“It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God” is repeated three times in the New Testament, in Matthew 19:24, Mark 10:25, and Luke 18:25.

[In The Spirit of Laws, Book 5. Chapter 5, ”In what Manner the Laws establish Equality in a Democracy,” Montesquieu warned for “men of overgrown estates, everything which does not contribute to advance their power and honor is considered by them as an injury.…” ]

Why Do the Epstein Files Matter? An Expert on the Elites Explains Why

Mehdi Hasan and Team Zeteo, Feb 05, 2026 [via Naked Capitalism 02-10-2025]

In this can’t-miss ‘Mehdi Unfiltered’ interview, the Financial Times’ US editor and veteran columnist Edward Luce takes Mehdi on a deep dive into what it all means, and the who’s-who of those that appeared in the files, from Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, and Howard Lutnick, to Elon Musk, Noam Chomsky, and former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak….
During the wide-ranging interview, the Mehdi and Luce also discuss:
  • The world leader that could be brought down by the latest release of the Epstein files (hint: it’s not Trump!)
  • Epstein’s deep involvement with Israeli and Russian intelligence services
  • Why Joe Biden and then-Attorney General Merrick Garland didn’t do anything with these incriminating Epstein files when they were in office….

It’s an MRI of how things work in a culture where shame has vanished,” Luce tells Mehdi.

[TW: If a reader has access, hopefully they will post a report or parts of a transcript.]

The slow Epstein earthquake: The rupture between the people and the élites

Alastair Crooke, February 9, 2026 [defenddemocracy.press]

Americans Want Accountability With the Epstein Files. Elites Couldn’t Care Less.

Dylan Gyauch-Lewis, February 10 2026 [The Intercept]

The list of elites who maintained close relationships with Epstein is long and includes prominent politicians, media figures, academics, and business leaders. In contrast, the list of people who have faced any meaningful consequences, at least in the United States, is so far quite short. Recently, Brad Karp, a top Democratic Party fundraising “bundler,” was removed as chair of the white-shoe law firm Paul Weiss after his extensive ties to Epstein were revealed. Peter Attia, the celebrity doctor and a new hire at Bari Weiss’ CBS News, resigned from a protein bar company after emails showed him making dirty jokes with Epstein. The economist Larry Summers was deemed toxic after a previous DOJ disclosure, went on leave from teaching at Harvard, and was unceremoniously dropped by numerous institutions. So far, that’s about the extent of it.

To be very explicit, this lack of serious consequences is a choice that powerful people in the United States are making. Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, Prince Andrew is prince no more, reduced to merely Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor after King Charles removed all of his remaining royal titles; the former CEO of Barclays has been barred from the finance industry; the British ambassador to the United States, Peter Mandelson, has been forced out; Morgan McSweeney, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s chief of staff and a Mandelson protege, was forced to resign under pressure; and Starmer risks losing his post over the Mandelson appointment. In Slovakia, the national security adviser to the prime minister has resigned. Accountability, if you care to enforce it, is in fact possible.

But on this side of the pond, elites have moved to protect powerful people with Epstein connections (themselves included). Donald Trump is the most obvious example; for any other president, the relationship between the two men would have been a fast track to impeachment. The documents also reveal how many powerful people maintained relationships with Epstein years after he was convicted of soliciting a minor for prostitution in 2008: Among them are former presidential adviser and current podcast bro Steve Bannon, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Tesla et al. CEO and “MechaHitler” progenitor Elon Musk, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel, and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates. Extensive redactions to the documents by the Justice Department have slow-walked matters even further, but on Tuesday, Rep. Ro Khanna took aim by reading off the names of “six wealthy, powerful men that the DOJ hid for no apparent reason” on the floor of Congress.

[TW: I want to break this out, as snark:

It is worth being quite clear here: This does not mean everyone who makes any appearance at all in the files needs to be excised from public life. For instance, the political commentators Megan McArdle, Josh Barro, Ben Dreyfuss, and Ross Douthat recently recorded a podcast episode titled “We’re All in the Epstein Files,” which notes that they all are there because of tweets that a third party shared with Epstein, mostly via a newsletter sent out by Gregory Brown. That sort of thing is not the point. In order to actually clean house, we need to be clear where the dirt is.

[A poster on Facebook argued that instead, we should use the same approach that ICE is using against undocumented aliens — round up, arrest and detain in some unknown place, everyone who appears to have had some connection to Epstein and Maxwell. Without due process, of course. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.]

Epstein Files May Give ‘Blackmail’ a Whole New Meaning — What might Epstein buddy Leon Black have on Trump?

[Going Deep with Russ Baker, Feb 08, 2026]

Why Is Canadian Media Silent on Conrad Black Being in the Epstein Files?

Dougald Lamont, Feb 09, 2026

[TW: In the 1990s I was writing about Conrad Black’s shady business dealings at his Hollinger media cartel empire — half a billion dollars “lost” in two years in the late 90s — and helping trace his links to the British establishment that included former high level managers from MI-5 and MI-6. Black was a financial backer of one of the most destructive US neocons, Richard Perle. In the 1980s, Black gained control of the London Telegraph media group, and directed it to support Margaret Thatcher and Benjamin Netanyahu. Black’s holding also included the Chicago Sun-Times and The Jerusalem Post. Hollinger had an International Advisory Board which included Perle, Thatcher, Lord Peter Carrington, and Henry Kissinger. On the board of directors was Leslie Wexner, the man who appears to have provided the first big tranches of funds to Epstein. Black was convicted of financial crimes in July 2007, and sentenced to over six years in prison. In the past few years, he has been writing opinion pieces for the extremist conservative Epoch Times. Conrad Black is not related to Leon Black.]

Former police chief says Trump knew of Epstein abuse in 2006

[Drop Site Daily: February 10, 2026]

Former Palm Beach police chief Michael Reiter told the Federal Bureau of Investigation in a 2019 interview that President Donald Trump called him in July 2006, saying Jeffrey Epstein’s sexual abuse of teenage girls was widely known in New York and Palm Beach, according to a new report from The Miami Herald. Reiter’s account directly contradicts Trump’s public denials.

Bondi’s Binders: Failed State Ragebait — Why was the Attorney General screaming at Congress?

Jim Stewartson, Feb 12, 2026 [MindWar]

…Bondi’s motivations for signing up to Trump’s organized crime government are numerous. Her conflicts of interest are extraordinarily clear.

First, she was the Attorney General in Florida from 2011 to 2019, leaving office just a few months before Epstein was arrested by Bill Barr. For eight years, Epstein operated in her state without interference from law enforcement. In 2013, Donald Trump infamously donated $25,000 to her campaign, after which she declined to prosecute Trump University on fraud charges.

Either she knew what Epstein was doing and chose not to do anything about it, or she was too incompetent to know the most infamous pedophile in the world was still behaving like a pedophile in her state. Either way, she is personally invested in Epstein just going away.

Second, Bondi’s lobbying work is precisely aligned with the Trump regime. She was a lobbyist for private prison contractor GEO Group, whose main customer is ICE. And she was paid $115,000 per month to lobby Congress on behalf of Qatar.

Another recipient of Qatar’s largesse is Kash Patel….

Pam Bondi should be in jail for covering up for Jeffrey Epstein’s heinous crimes!

Dean Obeidallah, Feb 12, 2026

The consensus by the corporate media was that she was doing all this in the defense of her beloved Donald Trump. But what those media outlets are missing is that Bondi’s unhinged level of defensives was because she is guilty—and she knows it. Bondi has long protected Epstein and the powerful men who raped children and were trafficked women. She must be criminally investigated to determine if she broke the law doing this!

Before becoming US Attorney General, Bondi served for eight years as Florida’s AG from 2011 to 2019. That is the very state and time that Jeffrey Epstein was running his sprawling child rape and sex trafficking ring. As Trump’s own first term DOJ told us in a 2020 report, after Epstein was released from prison in 2009, he returned to his lavish lifestyle and was able to “continue his abuse of minors.”….

Attorney for Epstein Survivors Warns That Justice Is Impossible With Bondi as AG

[The Intercept, February 13 2026]

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Trump’s Religious Liberties Commission Implodes Over Zionism

POTUS Trump’s Religious Liberty Commission is tearing itself apart in a fight about zionism.

The leading dissident, Carrie Prejean Boller, the 2009 Miss California USA is a right-wing Catholic who picked a fight with zionists at a meeting of the Commission.

Here’s how NBC describes the dust-up:

A member of the federal Religious Liberty Commission has been ousted after a hearing this week that featured tense exchanges on the definition of antisemitism. The ousted member, Carrie Prejean Boller, had defended prominent commentator Candace Owens, who routinely shares antisemitic conspiracy theories.

Prejean Boller, a model turned conservative activist, denied that Owens had ever said anything antisemitic, quoted a Bible verse that attributed the death of Jesus to Jews and pushed back on the idea that some people mask antisemitism in their criticism of Israel.

“No member of the commission has the right to hijack a hearing for their own personal and political agenda on any issue,” said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, chair of the commission, in a statement Wednesday. “This is clearly, without question, what happened Monday in our hearing on antisemitism in America. This was my decision.”

Boller fired back on X.com that Patrick could not fire her, only Trump could.

Patrick’s tweet got over 4.4 million views and Boller’s reply 2.3 million views. This is the mainstream of 21st Century American political discourse.

Boller spoke to Yair Rosenberg at The Atlantic:

“It is not a biblical mandate that I have to worship Israel,” Carrie Prejean Boller told me today. The former Miss California USA turned social-media influencer was dismissed from President Trump’s Religious Liberty Commission yesterday after drawing charges of anti-Semitism. But, she wanted to make clear, she regrets nothing—and has no intention of disappearing without a fight.

On Tuesday, the Religious Liberty Commission held its fifth hearing, in Washington, D.C., to discuss anti-Jewish prejudice. Meetings of blue-ribbon panels are typically sleepy, stage-managed affairs designed to serve the purposes of whatever administration put them together. But Boller had other ideas. She repeatedly interrogated the participants about their opinions on anti-Zionism, which she distinguished from anti-Semitism, and complained that other panelists had called Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, the wildly popular podcasters, anti-Semitic.

Video of Boller’s interjections went viral, sparking furious recriminations on the right. “I’m with her,” declared former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. Boller took to social media in her own defense and began resharing others’ support for her conduct, including Owens’s claim that the two women were being assailed for refusing to “support the mass slaughter and rape of innocent children for occult Baal worshipers.” Boller’s performance raised her profile—her previously marginal X account increased its following 20-fold. “Be a good Goyim and give me a follow,” she posted Tuesday afternoon, inaccurately using the plural form of the colloquial Hebrew word for “non-Jew.” Yesterday, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, the chair of the Religious Liberty Commission, announced that Boller had been removed, saying in a statement that “no member of the Commission has the right to hijack a hearing for their own personal and political agenda on any issue.”

Trump influencer Laura Loomer chimed in (600K views) to claim that the White House ordered Boller’s removal from the Commission:

For those not following this administration closely, here’s some background on Loomer and her role in Trump 2.0 (“chief loyalty enforcer”) from PBS last summer:

Laura Loomer has successfully lobbied to remove aides from several key government roles, including the National Security Council. Despite her close alliance with the president, she’s drawn some foes within the Republican Party, including Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Laura Loomer: “I’m not working for President Trump. I’m not getting paid by President Trump. I’m not in the Trump White House. I wasn’t even on the Trump campaign. And yet I feel like every single day it’s a full-time job just to make sure the president is protected and that he’s receiving the information that he needs to receive.”

The open war over zionism on the right side of the political spectrum is a dramatic contrast to the more subdued conflict between Democratic party voters (who overwhelmingly oppose Israel) and their elected officials (who overwhelmingly support Israel).

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 08, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

[X-Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 02-07-2025]

Sheila of the Most High
@sheilatebra
Just read this beautiful story  I live in a 12-unit apartment building. For two years, I didn’t know a single neighbor. We’d pass in the hallway. Nod. Maybe say “hey.” Then disappear into our separate lives. That was normal. That was city living. Then someone new moved into Unit 3. Her name was Diana. She was maybe 70, recently widowed, moving to be closer to her daughter. The first week, she knocked on every door in the building. “Hi, I’m Diana from Unit 3. Just wanted to introduce myself.” Most people were polite but brief. We weren’t used to this. But Diana didn’t take the hint.

 

Trump not violating any law

‘He who saves his Country does not violate any Law’

Trump Stuns By Saying ‘I Don’t Know’ When Asked Directly NBC’s Kristen Welker ‘Don’t You Need to Uphold the Constitution?’

Joe DePaolo, May 4th, 2025 [mediaite.com]

The Crime of Witness

Fintan O’Toole, February 26, 2026 issue [The New York Review]

Renee Good and Alex Pretti were murdered for daring to interfere with the Trump administration’s efforts to normalize abductions and state violence….

Watchfulness is the most dangerous form of resistance because it obstructs the Trump regime’s project of habituation. Fascism works by making the extreme normal. Habit, as Samuel Beckett has it, is a great deadener. It has been obvious since the start of Trump’s second term that he is trying to make the sight of armed and masked men with virtually unlimited powers one to which Americans are accustomed.

First by dispatching National Guard troops to Los Angeles and other cities, then by sending ICE contingents to Washington, Memphis, Nashville, Atlanta, Charlotte, New Orleans, Brownsville, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Newark, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, the regime is redefining not just legal and political norms but normalcy itself. It is making the threat of arbitrary state violence routine, stitching it into the fabric of daily urban life. The hope is that most Americans can be schooled to go about their mundane preoccupations even while they are being visibly occupied….

This procedure of habituation is also a process of escalation. Authoritarian takeover in a long-established democracy must be gradual. And the gradations are primarily moral. The populace must be desensitized. People must get used to images of little children being kidnapped by unidentified masked agents. They must become acclimated to young women being grabbed and hustled into unmarked vans by faceless men; they must learn not to acknowledge abduction.

They must become familiar with official disappearances—an idea once confined to the outer darkness beyond the southern border but now fully domesticated. They must get used to killing—first to the out-of-the-way obscure deaths of migrants: thirty-two people died in ICE custody in 2025, often because of the authorities’ refusal to treat acute medical conditions. And then they must get used to the public, open, and flagrant killings of American citizens. In this logic of escalation, a cold-blooded summary execution is not an accident. It is a climax….

How Germany Went from Street Protest to Silence

Sharon Kyle, Jan 30, 2026 [LA Progressive]

The Step‑by‑Step Collapse of Moral Resistance. In 1930, Germans still filled the streets. By 1938, open opposition had vanished.

Classified Whistleblower Complaint About Tulsi Gabbard Stalls Within Her Agency

Dustin Volz and C. Ryan Barber, Feb. 2, 2026 [Wall Street Journal, via Letters from an American]

…A U.S. intelligence official has alleged wrongdoing by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in a whistleblower complaint that is so highly classified it has sparked months of wrangling over how to share it with Congress, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the matter.

The filing of the complaint has prompted a continuing, behind-the-scenes struggle about how to assess and handle it, with the whistleblower’s lawyer accusing Gabbard of stonewalling the complaint…..
A cloak-and-dagger mystery reminiscent of a John le Carré novel is swirling around the complaint, which is said to be locked in a safe. Disclosure of its contents could cause “grave damage to national security,” one official said. It also implicates another federal agency beyond Gabbard’s, and raises potential claims of executive privilege that may involve the White House, officials said.
The complaint was filed last May with the intelligence community’s inspector general, according to a November letter that the whistleblower’s lawyer addressed to Gabbard. The letter, which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal, accused Gabbard’s office of hindering the dissemination of the complaint to lawmakers by failing to provide necessary security guidance on how to do so….
Spencer Ackerman, 05 Feb 2026 [FOREVER WARS]
…Wyden is a longstanding member of the Senate intelligence committee. He takes seriously its responsibilities to stop the intelligence agencies from using their operational secrecy to break the law, violate peoples’ privacy – or worse – and enmesh the country in dangerous misadventures both foreign and domestic….
Interviewing Wyden is a maddening mixture of candor and obstinacy. He has a security clearance to lawfully access classified information. The reporter interviewing him does not. He wants to tell you what he found, but that would break the law and get him, at a minimum, thrown off the committee. You as the reporter are trying to absorb what little Wyden is telling you. You are primarily attentive to the vastness of what he leaves unsaid. You try to improvise clever ways to ask, and reask, questions that might clarify what he means, and/or yield leads for other ways to investigate it. Usually Wyden says he can’t answer those, either….
All I can tell you is that Wyden’s record of warning that there is deep and constitutionally-serious dirt being done by the intelligence agencies in secret is unblemished. Never once in the many years I have been reporting on Wyden have I ever encountered a warning of his to be hyperbolic, let alone baseless….
Phil Stewart, Erin Banco and Jonathan Landa, February 4, 2026 [Reuters, via Letters from an American, Feb 6, 2026]
A team working for President Donald Trump’s spy chief, Tulsi Gabbard, last spring led an investigation into Puerto Rico’s voting machines, said Gabbard’s office and three sources familiar with the previously unreported events.
The sources said the goal was to work with the FBI to investigate claims that Venezuela had hacked voting machines in Puerto Rico, but added the probe did not produce any clear evidence of Venezuelan interference in the U.S. territory’s elections.
Hunter Walker, 02.06.26 [Talking Points Memo]
On Jan. 6, 2026, a group of election conspiracy theorists released a report detailing allegations that the 2020 presidential results in Georgia’s Fulton County were “falsely padded” with questionable ballots. A little over three weeks later, FBI agents raided the county’s offices and seized 700 boxes of voting records….
The “Fulton County Report of Investigation of the 2020 General Election” was billed as coming from the “Election Oversight Group” and dated Jan. 6, 2026. EOG is a supposed watchdog group that has repeatedly filed complaints against election officials in Georgia and produced research documents based on thoroughly debunked allegations. Some of the group’s past work was cited by Trump and his attorneys in 2024 as he defended himself against Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation and pressed his ultimately successful case for presidential immunity. There are indications this more recent EOG report also made its way to Trump’s team and even that it may have influenced the mysterious investigation that led to the Fulton County raid.

Homeland Security is targeting Americans with this secretive legal weapon 

[WaPo, via Naked Capitalism 02-05-2025]

BREAKING: DOJ Empowers Board of Immigration Appeals to Strip Due Process From Migrants 

[Migrant Insider, via Naked Capitalism 02-06-2025]

The Paramilitary ICE and CBP Units at the Center of Minnesota’s Killings 

[Wired, via Naked Capitalism 02-06-2025]

In ICE’s War, the Public Is Winning — Feds stockpile 35,000 munitions in Minneapolis – but suddenly withdraw

Ken Klippenstein, Feb 04, 2026 [via Naked Capitalism 02-06-2025]

Gregory Bovino reported to Corey Lewandowski, not CBP chief

[X-Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 02-06-2025]

Wait! The public face of nationwide immigration enforcement, Gregory Bovino, said in a newly discovered email that his boss wasn’t the head of CBP. He reported to Corey Lewandowski instead.

Emails reveal possible command structure for immigration Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago

Mark Rivera and Barb Markoff, Christine Tressel and Tom Jones, February 4, 2026 [abc7chicago.com WLS]

Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino said his boss was not the head of CBP, emails newly obtained by ABC News show.

Accountability for ICE and CBP

Garrett Graff, February 01, 2026 [Doomsday Scenario]

On Friday, I testified in front of Governor J.B. Pritzker’s “Illinois Accountability Commission,” the state government body he set up after the Trump administration’s “Operation Midway Blitz” attack on Chicago last summer and the precursor of the even larger federal occupation of Minneapolis that we’re experiencing now. The body’s goal is to both document what happened to Chicago, with an eye on future prosecutions, understand the role of various Trump officials in this federal occupation, and offer recommendations about how to fix immigration enforcement going forward.

I was called as the commission’s expert witness on the history of problems, corruption, and training within CBP and ICE — a story I’ve covered for more than a dozen years, as regular readers of this newsletter know. To prepare, I spent the last week re-reading and re-familiarizing myself with DHS scandals and waves of corruption and mismanagement — and found myself horrified anew.

It was the first time I’ve ever sat down and tried to organize and explain all of the last twenty-five years of DHS and immigration enforcement since 9/11 and painted a complete picture of what’s gone wrong with ICE and CBP. Overall, the totality of the criminality inside CBP in particular is so much worse than I even realized….

ICE’s Private Prison Contractors Spent Millions Lobbying to Force Banks to Give Them Loans

Biplob Kumar Das, February 5 2026 [The Intercept]

Some of the largest banks in the nation for years have eschewed the business of private prison giants like GEO Group and CoreCivic, the two firms that operate more than half the private carceral facilities in the country, including many U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention centers.

The moves to “debank” the companies, which have been dogged by reports of rights abuses, came after the banks’ reviews of their environmental, social, and governance policies, which included site visits and meeting with civil rights leaders. According to a nonprofit report, the moves by banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, cost the prison companies billions in potential financing.

This 3-page court opinion releasing Liam Ramos is one of the best ever written!

Dean Obeidallah, Feb 02, 2026

Homeland Security is targeting Americans with this secretive legal weapon

John Woodrow Cox, February 3, 2026 [Washington Post]

In October, a retiree emailed a DHS attorney to urge mercy for an asylum seeker. Then DHS subpoenaed his Google account and sent investigators to his home….

“Unconscionable,” Jon thought as he found an email address online for the lead prosecutor, Joseph Dernbach, who was named in the story. Peering through metal-rimmed glasses, Jon opened Gmail on his computer monitor.
“Mr. Dernbach, don’t play Russian roulette with H’s life,” he wrote. “Err on the side of caution. There’s a reason the US government along with many other governments don’t recognise the Taliban. Apply principles of common sense and decency.”
That was it. In five minutes, Jon said, he finished the note, signed his first and last name, pressed send and hoped his plea would make a difference.
Five hours and one minute later, Jon was watching TV with his wife when an email popped up in his inbox. He noticed it on his phone.
“Google,” the message read, “has received legal process from a Law Enforcement authority compelling the release of information related to your Google Account.”
Listed below was the type of legal process: “subpoena.” And below that, the authority: “Department of Homeland Security.”
That’s how it began. Soon would come a knock at the door by men with badges and, for Jon, the relentless feeling of being surveilled in a country where he never imagined he would be….

Yet Another Sign that the Trump Administration is Laying the Groundwork for Election Intervention?

Bob Bauer, Feb 05, 2026 [Executive Functions]

For many years, in both Democratic and Republican administrations, the Department of Justice has published a manual for its prosecutors entitled the Federal Prosecution of Election Offenses. It is now in an eighth edition, published in December 2017. It is a remarkable document—and it articulates principles of federal prosecution that the president is currently rejecting….

The department has pulled the 2017 manual from the website of its Election Crimes Branch. With the midterm elections only months away, journalists and responsible members of Congress should press the White House and the Department of Justice to explain why….

‘Beyond Crazy’: FBI Summons State Election Officials to Secretive Meeting After Trump Threat to ‘Nationalize’ Midterms

Stephen Prager, February 06, 2026 [CommonDreams]

Bannon floats big lie to prepare stealing of 2026 elections

Heather Cox Richardson, Feb 05, 2026 [Letters from an American, February 4, 2026]

Last week’s release of some of the Epstein files has shown just how thoroughly Bannon plays his audience for power. Even while he was portraying himself to his audience as a populist defender, he was working closely with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein to launder his image and craft political messages.

On Tuesday, Bannon echoed Trump’s lie that undocumented immigrants corrupt the polls, saying that only about 20% of real voters select Democrats. This lie about undocumented immigrants voting has been part of the Republicans’ rhetoric since 1994, the year after Democrats under President Bill Clinton passed the National Voter Registration Act of 1993, the so-called Motor Voter Act, which made it easier to register to vote at certain state offices. In 1994, Republicans accused Democrats of winning elections by turning to “illegal,” usually immigrant, voters.

Republican candidates who lost in the 1994 midterm elections claimed that Democrats had won only through “voter fraud.” In 1996, Republicans in both the House and the Senate launched yearlong investigations into what they insisted were problematic elections, one in Louisiana and one in California. Ultimately, they turned up nothing, but keeping the cases in front of the media for a year helped to convince Americans that Democratic voter fraud was a serious issue.

Judge Incredulous as Trump Lawyer Asks Him to Create New Law for Mark Kelly Retribution Crusade

Kate Riga, 02.03.26 [Talking Points Memo]

“You’re asking me to do something that the Supreme Court has never done — that’s a bit of a stretch, is it not?” the George W. Bush-appointed judge asked DOJ’s John Bailey.

The Trump administration tried during the hearing to argue that the diminished speech rights that apply to the active duty military — meant to preserve obedience and discipline — should apply to Kelly, who is retired, as well.

Strategic Political Economy

Pay No Attention To The Pillaging Behind The Curtain

David Sirota, February 03, 2026 [The Lever]

Have you noticed that the “news” is now almost 100 percent anything other than the unprecedented financial pillaging of the entire country, at every single minute of every single day? Have you noticed how life is becoming unaffordable for almost everyone around you, and yet this is barely a topic of national conversation, buried under the spectacle of violence and political theater being manufactured by the party-media complex?

  • This is no accident — it’s part of an ongoing effort by both parties and their media machines to help their donors depoliticize the systematic looting of America. They are trying to make politics, voting, and elections about literally everything but the Great Fleecing. Why?

Blinders on. Because they do not want the public to believe that elections can change the economic superstructure that enriches the oligarchs and corporations. They do not want the political conversation to be about how nobody can financially survive, because if the political conversation is about that, then the general population might develop expectations. Expectations that democracy is an actual system rather than a slogan. Expectations that voting can create actual mandates. Expectations that elections result in politicians getting into power and materially improving people’s lives — or facing the prospect of being quickly thrown out of office….

How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism — Macroeconomics is the driver, not median voters.

Thomas Ferguson, February 3, 2026 [Boston Review]

…The Democratic Party’s historic links to working-class Americans had been fraying for a while, but Jimmy Carter’s decision to replace G. William Miller with Paul Volcker—well before the nineties—transformed a slow downward spiral into a catastrophe. Stanley Kelley’s dissection of how Volcker wrecked Carter’s reelection effort in his important 1983 book Interpreting Elections was a fine start. It should have been aggressively followed up by studies of how the Great Volcker Deflation destroyed the Democratic brand as the heartland collapsed over the next few years. The fact that a Democrat appointed him is rarely pondered by political scientists.

Together with colleagues like William Greider and Joel Rogers, I have worked through the dismal details (including opinion polling), so I will simply dismiss the idea that any appeal to the median voter was responsible for any of this. Carter’s decision reflected massive pressure from financiers and financial markets in a panic over what in hindsight was a trivial uptick in the government deficit. Ever since Democratic financiers and business groups lined up behind fiscal austerity, their demands have defined the party’s center of gravity.

This was certainly the case in 1984. Almost everyone agrees that Walter Mondale’s promise to raise taxes doomed his bid for the presidency. But as Rogers and I document in Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics, Mondale made that decision after two key Democratic financiers, Robert Rubin and Roger Altman, flew out to Minnesota and pressed him to drink from the poisoned chalice.

The story four years later was similar, if less melodramatic. Under pressure from the party’s financial bloc, Michael Dukakis resisted calls for stronger fiscal spending that might have helped workers whose jobs were disappearing amid the first great surge of imports and overseas investments by U.S. firms. He lost in a landslide. Two of the most prominent Democratic financiers supporting his campaign were, once again, Rubin and Altman, while Larry Summers, closely connected to Rubin, advised the campaign. Thereafter the Democratic elite’s emphasis on austerity, lower taxes, financial deregulation, and the benefits flowing from free trade, unrestricted overseas investment, and a high dollar has barely shifted. Their indifference to investing much in average Americans, reconstructing heartland communities, or coping with falling rates of unionization reflects a policy fixation rivaling that of an Egyptian dynasty. Its devastating long-run effects on the party’s position in the Midwest and South are only now being widely recognized.

So much, then, for median voters. This is how money-driven politics works….

Right now, Democratic congressional leaders clearly think that Trump is so vulnerable that a repetition of 2025’s across-the-board shift to Democrats is likely in the upcoming midterm elections. They talk far more boldly than they act while reveling in crypto cash and other streams of political money. But they and many others have a long history of underestimating Trump’s economics and its appeals, as well as how swiftly and convincingly he is able to dramatize those doctrines as populist and outflank Democrats on the left. With Trump’s ostentatious overtures first to Zohran Mamdani and now to Elizabeth Warren, so reminiscent of how he used to talk up Sanders, the shape of things to come is obvious. As the administration revs up cascading streams of tax rebates, prescription drug price cuts, and other (short-term) goodies for an electorate that considers the Democrats more corrupt than the Republicans, these calculations on the part of Democratic elites can easily prove as misguided as they were in 2016 and 2024….

Open Thread

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 01, 2026

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 01, 2026

by Tony Wikrent

The Crisis, No. 8 — The empire of exit and the conspiracy against America

Mike Brock, Jan 29, 2026 [Notes From The Circus]

The Director of National Intelligence stood in the parking lot of the Fulton County Elections Hub while FBI agents loaded boxes onto trucks.

Tulsi Gabbard, in a dark blazer, watching men in windbreakers carry cardboard boxes out of a building where American citizens cast their votes five years ago. Hundreds of boxes. Computers. Tabulator tapes. Voter rolls. Seized and loaded.

The Director of National Intelligence has no legitimate role at a domestic law enforcement action. The intelligence community’s remit is foreign threats—the enemies beyond our borders, the spies and saboteurs. An FBI raid on a county election office is a domestic matter, whatever pretext is offered. And yet there she stood.

Senator Mark Warner named the only two possibilities: either Gabbard believes there is a foreign intelligence angle and failed to brief the intelligence committees as required by law, or she is turning the intelligence community into a partisan instrument. There is no third option….

The same week that agents loaded Georgia’s votes onto trucks, the Financial Times reported that Trump administration officials have been holding covert meetings with separatists from Alberta.

Alberta. The province that sits atop the Athabasca oil sands—the third-largest oil reserve on Earth. The province whose eastern border is a thousand miles of prairie, whose western edge rises into the Canadian Rockies, whose people have chafed for decades at Ottawa’s carbon taxes and equalization formulas. Alberta, which has never loved confederation the way Ontario loves it, which has always felt more kinship with Texas than with Quebec.

The Alberta Prosperity Project—a fringe group seeking independence from Canada—has met with State Department officials three times since April. They are now seeking a meeting with Treasury. Their ask: a $500 billion credit facility to bankroll the province if an independence referendum passes.

Five hundred billion dollars. To break apart a NATO ally.

The State Department’s response: “The department regularly meets with civil society types.”

Civil society types. That is what they call people seeking foreign backing to dismember a neighboring democracy….

Tulsi Gabbard Drags U.S. Intelligence into Trump’s Election Fraud Campaign 

[Spy Talk, via Naked Capitalism 01-30-2025]

Today Fulton County, Tomorrow???

Joyce Vance, Jan 30, 2026 [Civil Discourse]

[TW: Provides a screen shot of a social media post Trump reposted, promoting the conspiracy belief that Italy was paid by Obama to use military satellites to hack US voting machines in 2020 and literally switch votes from Trump to Biden — all under the direction of the Chinese government.]

GOP Opens Up Its Midterm Elections Playbook in Minnesota

Gabrielle Gurley, January 29, 2026 [The American Prospect]

Last October, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson announced that the Justice Department wanted state registration data and that federal officials refused to explain why. “Other secretaries of state—both Democrats and Republicans—have asked them that. They won’t tell us,” she said.

Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada

Ilya Gridneff and Myles McCormick, Jan 28 2026 [Financial Times]

Monopoly Round-Up: Why ICE Polices in Minnesota, and Not the Corporate Board Room

Matt Stoller January 26, 2026 [BIG]

Law enforcement budgets show we defunded those who police corporate America, while ramping up coercion on working people….

…I want to focus on the raids of the Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Minnesota, where the Trump administration sent ICE officers as part of a crackdown. The net effect was controversial killings of several U.S. citizens by ICE in the last month, including one yesterday, along with broad anger among locals.

At almost the same time, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where global elites meet, billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin remarked on the oppression he felt during the Biden administration during its “regulatory onslaught.” Griffin, worth $50 billion, and bailed out during the great financial crisis, cites the challenge to the Spirit-JetBlue merger as particularly galling.

I was going to write about weird economic statistics, but I think the way we use policing resources is a much more appropriate topic based on this explicit power of state coercion that we’re seeing, contrasted with Griffin’s anger at extremely mild attempts to check corporate power….

This moment is a good one to think about how we allocate law enforcement resources. The immigration raids we see are dramatic, but do not seem to me to be the best way to achieve their stated goal of mass deportations. If the administration truly wanted to deport undocumented workers, they would crack down on the companies, like meatpackers and large farms, who hire them. But doing so would require policing of corporations and employers, which the GOP generally seeks to avoid. These large made-for-TV cracking of heads strike me as a brutal communications strategy.

And that’s true for a lot of the choices we’ve been making in policing for decades. Indeed, the era of rising corporate power from the 1980s onward was characterized by a broad defunding of the police who investigate and regulate the behavior of political and economic elites. At the same time, we have increased policing resources to impose order, if not actual policing of bad behavior, on working people. In essence, there is now a zone of elite impunity for the Jeff Epstein class, but poorer Americans are increasingly subject to a host of restrictions and state violence….

Let’s contrast the $175 billion pot of money with that of the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division, the ‘white collar policing’ of the entire corporate world in our $30 trillion economy for monopolization and consumer abuse. In 2026, the FTC will get $383 million, and the Antitrust Division budget will receive $250 million. There are about as many people at the FTC as there are guards for the Smithsonian museum complex. We have a few dozen, at most, looking at health care, a $5 trillion sector. In other words, the Federal agencies looking at all of corporate America have just 0.5% of the resources that DHS got in additional money solely to deport people. And this puny under-funded group is what Griffin was complaining about as tyranny….

The Staircase of Oppression — Watch the boot ascend.

Hamilton Nolan, Jan 28, 2026 [How Things Work]

…The first step is the scapegoating and persecution of the most vulnerable. We are already there…..

The determination to crush this resistance fuels the next step up the staircase. In America, the government has not fully taken this next step, but it is clear that many in the administration would like to. Opposition has been formally classified as domestic terrorism. Government databases of protesters are being built. The FBI has opened an investigation into the Signal chats that activists use to follow ICE agents. All of these things are flirtations with criminalizing activism.

If this step is taken in earnest, you can expect to see arrests and prosecutions of protest organizers and activist leaders; aggressive mass arrests of street protesters; and even more outright violence used by police to crush protest actions. Activists will be treated as criminals and targeted and sent to jail. The circle of government oppression, which started out by including immigrants and minorities, will be expanded to include regular people who take action to stop that oppression. The criminalization of protest—justified by the argument that impeding law enforcement is itself a serious crime—gets us much closer to real authoritarianism….

Now, imagine peeking down at all of this chaos from the next step up the staircase. That is the step where the powerful people and institutions reside: Elected officials, businesses, very wealthy people, established legal and cultural organizations, and so on. This is the group that collectively held much of the political, economic, and social power before Trump’s race to authoritarianism began. As they watch the brutal oppression of immigrants and minorities play out, and they watch the subsequent protests play out, and they watch the government deciding if it can disregard the Constitution in order to crush that dissent, this already-powerful group must make a choice. Their choice is to either use their power to stop what the government is doing, or try to keep their heads down and protect their own little kingdoms and hope that all of this madness won’t affect them too much.

I expect little courage from the already-powerful, and, in aggregate, they have so far justified this expectation….

…The final step up the staircase is almost trivial. The government need only say: Have you funded the opposition? Then you too are a criminal. Have you used your media outlet to support the opposition? Then you too are a criminal. Has your business made statements in support of the opposition? Then you too are a criminal. Have you made a movie sympathetic to the opposition, or spoken out in an interview? Then you too are a criminal.

Have you, a politician of the opposing party, taken actions that can be interpreted by us as impeding the ability of the government to carry out its vital law enforcement actions? Then you too are a criminal….

What I am saying is that the collective instinct of the powerful to protect themselves ends up having the opposite effect. They refuse to throw their own power behind the opposition to government oppression, and thereby prevent the opposition from being as powerful as it could be, and thereby allow the boot of authoritarianism to step smoothly up the staircase, right to where they are. It would have been wiser for them to do everything in their considerable power to hold the line, to fight back, to fund the activists on the front line, to speak out firmly, to take strong legal and political action against the oppression, to refuse to do anything at all to help the government do its work….

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

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