The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Middle East Page 1 of 22

The Nuremberg Movement

It’s time to start a movement for new Nuremberg trials. After WWII many Nazis were tried for genocide and various war crimes, and they were executed.

I remember a long time ago my friend Stirling Newberry told me that western elites had only one moral rule, “Don’t be Nazis.” Anything short of being a Nazi was OK: mass murder that didn’t quite reach genocide, mass impoverishment, police states that didn’t quite reach “we are the Gestapo” levels, etc…

This struck me as not much of a red line, you can do a lot of evil without being as bad as the Nazis, after all.

But they’ve crossed even this red line. They’re Nazis. Trump, Trudeau, Biden, Harris, almost every leader and politician in Europe, outside of Spain and Ireland, certainly virtually every German and British politician, has aided and abetted genocide. We’re not just talking looking the other way, they’ve locked up those opposed to genocide and they’ve sent weapons and in many cases (Britain) they’ve actively defended Israel from those trying to stop the genocide militarily, like Yemen and Hezbollah.

Nor are we just talking politicians. One journalist was executed at Nuremberg, and most of the journalists in the West have covered for genocide now. The New York Times, the BBC, the Washington Post, the Atlantic, the Guardian, the Telegram, every major TV news show, etc, etc… They knew genocide was happening, they lied about it, they did everything they could to make sure it could continue.

And, of course, almost every Israeli politician and almost all members of America’s congress, many members of Britain’s and Canada’s House of Commons, most Germany politicians, most EU officials, and so on.

All of these people need to hang from the neck till dead. All of them. If we don’t have “supports genocide” as a red line, we have no red lines at all.

This isn’t politically possible now. They’re in power. But they won’t be in power forever. Never forget. Never forgive. And ensure justice.

Fair trials and if they aided genocide, hang them from the neck till dead. There is no statute of limitations on genocide.

And if you’re completely selfish, understand this. They think they can even commit genocide and get away with it. This time it was a bunch of brown people in another country, but having crossed that line, the next line is “what if we mass murder white people in the first world? Could be we get away with it? They let us make them poor and homeless, is killing them that big a step? They’re just useless eaters, anyway.”

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Real Time Iraq War Death Estimates Were Wildly Off

During the Iraq War, we were fed very low death estimates:

  • The Iraq War Death count had an upper estimate of 43,000 by the end of 2006.
  • The Iraqi Ministry of health and the US armed forces (really the same thing) said about 20,000 by the end of 2005.

But when the Lancet did a population study in 2006 they came up with about 655,000, and in 2013 PLOS revised that number down to 461,000.

Either way the Iraq War Death count was about ten times too small. The official count was at least twenty times too small.

The Gaza Health Ministry’s death count is simply not credible, especially as it has risen more slowly over time, which is the opposite of what one would expect as water and food, medical services and supplies and shelter have all become radically rarer as the genocide has continued. It is surely an undercount. The indirect to direct-deaths ratio is also likely to be higher than in previous wars. The US deliberately hit a lot civilian infrastructure in Iraq and dismantled the economic supply networks which had kept Iraqis fed, but it wasn’t going all out to kill civilians or trying to demolish every building in Iraq.

We are also now into the early stages of a famine, and the amount of aid that Israel is letting in is pathetically small, plus in most cases to get it Palestinians have to risk being shot, and all accounts are that a few hundred Gazans do indeed get shot every day trying to get a few scraps food.

The last official death toll number from the Gaza Ministry of Health was 59,866. Multiply that by ten, and you have a death toll of 600K, and that’s a conservative estimate, and is before the worst of the famine hit.

This is genocide. It is entirely deliberate and being done with the aid of most of the Western world. We now know that our leaders, had they been Germans in the 30s and 40s, would have gone along with the Holocaust and in many cases, enthusiastically participated. We also know that most of our journalists would have provided cover, along with most of our pundits. (Yglesias is a good example as is almost everyone at the New York Times, BBC, Washington Post and so on.) Britain, Germany and America in particular have gone after anti-genocide activists hard.

Out entire elite class is not just OK with genocide, they’re onside and actively helping it.

If you think they wouldn’t do it to you, you’re in lalaland. They’ve proved they are OK with mass murder, and even if you’re white, don’t think it would save you. Look at Trump’s massive health care and food cuts, or Labour’s Starmer taking away aid from disabled people and cutting off heating for old folks, not to mention both being completely callous towards the exploding number of homeless people. In America far more homes are empty than there are homeless people, yet all the vast majority of politicians do is criminalize homelessness more and more.

You aren’t even the dirt beneath your elites’ fingertips. The only reason you aren’t Soylent Green yet is they haven’t been able to figure out how to make it pay. But your deaths mean nothing to them if they have any reason to kill you, no matter how slight. Your suffering isn’t a consideration either. They’ve spent 50 years systematically reducing pensions, health care and increasing poverty so they could make themselves richer.

You’re just sheep. They’ll sheer you as long as they can, and when they have any reason to, they’ll slaughter you.

And not only won’t they lose any sleep over hurting and eventually killing you, they’ll feel good about doing so.

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The Serious Starvation Deaths Are About To Begin In Gaza

I’ll keep this one brief. Almost no food or water has gone into Gaza for months. What I’m seeing is that it’s hit the crisis point. I’d expect a few hundred thousand more people to die in the next two to three months. The minimum death toll pre-Trump was about 400K as I read it, and probably more.

This is a holocaust.

There wasn’t much anyone who reads this site could have done about it, but I hope, for your sake, that you were consistently against it.

As for Israel, they have damned themselves and so has every politician and corporate executive in the world who could have done something and didn’t.

Forgive the lack of a long article with sources. We’re past that. Anyone who doesn’t see this and doesn’t expect it at this point simply doesn’t care to know.

Iran Screws Up & Gaza Death Toll

So, Iran has accepted the ceasefire offer. Iran was winning, as best I can tell. The Iron Dome could not stop their more advanced missiles and was days from running out of interceptor missiles (maybe two weeks if the US sent its entire stockpile). The US attack on Iran’s nuclear facility was a dud, the enriched uranium has been moved, etc…

I said that Iran had finally gotten over its caution, and that I feared it would revert, and so it has. It’s clear that the sooner Khameini dies and is replaced, the safer Iran will be — especially because that will be the end of the non-nuclear fatwa. (It should be noted that 60 percent-enriched is enough to create a dirty bomb which would render Israel uninhabitable, and Iran should inform Israel that it has created a number of them, ready for missile deployment.)

Iran could have kept going and insisted that Israel withdraw from Gaza and Lebanon (to be confirmed by Russian and Chinese satellites). Once again, Iran has abandoned its proxies as disposable proxies, not allies.

That said, this is an Iranian victory, just a very limited one. Israel and the US were the ones who begged for a ceasefire, not Iran.

Meanwhile, we have further confirmation that Gaza casualties are likely at least 377K.

A year ago, I estimated Gazan casualties at 500K. A new estimate has come out based on fairly conservative metrics, which puts them at a million.

(Source)

I find this estimate plausible, unfortunately — especially given the ongoing starvation campaign. (Regular reports now come in that the few aid stations permitted by Israel are being used to draw civilians in, then murder them.)

I reiterate that the only moral nation in the world appears to be Ansar-Allah’s Yemen. In a few years, everyone is going to be scrambling to pretend they were against this genocide or “didn’t know,” but we have the receipts.

There is no statute of limitations for genocide.

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TACO Trump Bombs Iran

If you’re getting a bit tired of Iran all the time, so am I. We’ll see if we can slip in an article on something else.

In the meantime, Trump hit Iran’s nuclear enrichment site. As best as I can tell, the attack was ineffective and did essentially no damage. Even if it had, Iran’s highly enriched, 60 percent stockpile had already been moved. I’ve seen Israel claims they know where it was moved, but there’s a good chance they’re lying. If the Iranians are smart, they’ve split it up, and made sure that only a few people know where each package is, and further that no one knows where all the packages are, which doubles as, “If you hit it, you lose your spy.”

Iran’s parliament has passed a motion asking to close the Straits of Hormuz; it’s waiting for Khameini’s approval. Some ships appear to be already turning away. Parliament is also planning to vote to end Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Agency, which is exactly the right thing to do, as they’re both politicized and almost certainly spy for the Israelis and Americans. At least make your enemies work to get data on your secure nuclear sites and scientists.

Given the US couldn’t even stop the Houthi blockade, there is zero chance they can re-open the Straits of Hormuz with military force. It will stay closed as long as Iran wants it to. Among other things, very few civilian shipping companies are going to take the chance. One missile or mine is all it takes.

It should go without saying that Trump’s strike is a direct violation of international law, which requires the approval of the U.N. Security Council to declare war. Honored more often in the breach, etc. This is yet another nail in the coffin of the idea that anyone should pay even the least attention to international law, as the countries that created it sure don’t.

Meanwhile, the missiles keep raining down on Israel. While firm data is hard to get, I’m almost certain the “Iron” Dome” is not stopping most of them. Indeed, the WSJ reports that Israel is interested in peace.

Iran shouldn’t give it to them without conditions. They have the upper hand. At the least, they should demand a withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to the bombing there, and an end to the food and supplies blockade in Gaza, with immediate retaliation when they break the deal, which they always do.

A lot of my predictions about the Middle East have been wrong since October 7th. There are two reasons: I didn’t realize how cripplingly cautious the “Resistance” was (other than Hamas and Ansar-Allah), and I underestimated Mossad’s and American’s intelligence penetration of both — especially of Hezbollah. Fortunately, Israel has been at pains to teach everyone a lesson, and a lot of the overly-cautious Hezbollah and Iranian leaders are now dead.

There were a number of reasons for the intelligence penetration. One was that India’s intelligence was working with Mossad and had (has?) a huge network of spies in both the Indian tech diaspora and guest workers. The second is that Iran, in particular, has used Western tech — especially Western phones. (Admittedly, everyone runs Android or IOS, so it’s hard to avoid.)

Israel’s signals intelligence division (SIGINT), called Unit 8200 had been monitoring these targets for over a decade, compiling detailed itineraries — homes, workplaces, travel routes, and even bedroom locations. The precision of Operation Namiya (June, 2024) relied on a triple-layered surveillance ecosystem: Apple devices and unencrypted iPhones provided real-time GPS tracking.

General Soleimani’s 2020 assassination had already proven this vulnerability, yet Iranian officials continued using them. They also used Google/Microsoft Services: Gmail accounts, Cloud backups, and Android devices leaked metadata, revealing behavioral patterns and social graphs.

Regarding telecom backdoors: Iran’s telecom infrastructure, built on Ericsson (which exited in 2012 under sanctions) and Nokia hardware, remained vulnerable. Huawei and ZTE briefly replaced Western vendors between 2012 and 2016, but by 2018, Iran resumed purchases from European suppliers -— a fatal regression.

It’s clear that any country which doesn’t want similar issues has to rely on entirely non-Western tech from a trusted supplier — and even then, as revealed by the Hezbollah pager attack (which is really what defeated Hezbollah, along with knowledge of their missile stockpile locations), you have to secure the entire supply chain, including delivery, then check like a paranoid, because you have enemies.

It’s best to own your entire own tech stack, and a LOT of countries are going to be working feverishly towards this. Using Western tech this way is a great way to destroy markets for Western tech.

It should go without saying that every Western country is fatally compromised. The US knows everything they do. Even as a Canadian, I would want to get to a domestic stack, and Europeans are fools if they don’t, unless they intend to remain American satrapies for the rest of time.

Iran has finally thrown off its caution. I pray they don’t revert. They’re winning this war, and they shouldn’t let up until Israel is publicly humiliated and forced to actually stop their constant provocations and genocide.

As for TACO Trump, he wants the war over, and his attack was a PR stunt so he could declare victory and flex US muscles, worthlessly. I don’t think he has the guts for a real war, which is a good thing. (I could, of course, be wrong. The problem with Trump is that even he doesn’t know what he’s actually going to do most of the time. It is also amusing to watch Vance doing everything he can to distance himself from the attack, in preparation for running in 2028.)

Update: Iran says it has bombed Iraq, Qatar, Bahrein, and Kuwait US military bases.

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No, Iran Didn’t Target a Hospital (+Iran Update)

Israel uses hospitals as human shields for their military targets, which is what they claimed Hamas did.

#SorokaThe hospital is located between two major Israeli military sites: the IDF’s main intelligence headquarters and a central command facility, both of which are situated in the Gav-Yam Technology Park. These installations reportedly serve as critical hubs for Israel’s cyber operations, digital command systems, and military intelligence infrastructure (including IDF C4I and C4ISR systems). While the hospital sustained shockwave damage from nearby blasts, it was not directly hit, Iranian reports emphasize.

Sororka is the primary hospital for military casualties, I understand, but it wasn’t targeted. It got hit in the blast.

Now, of course, for Israel to be complaining about a hospital attack is ludicrous. Wikipedia has a list of Israeli attacks on Gaza hospitals. There are dozens.

My post on the initial attack on Iran noted how serious Mossad penetration was. What’s interesting about Iran’s missile attacks is that they seem to be prioritizing intelligence sites even more than strict military ones. They know their weakness and are working on it.

Iran has mainly been going after Israeli intelligence in the last couple of days: Mossad and 8200 bases throughout the country, from north through center to south. This seems to be their main focus now. I have no way to assess hits and damages, but these are large, extremely expensive, highly prized targets. They know where everything is – and if you remember the Hezbollah drone videos from a year ago, you can guess how accurate their information is.

Iran also has high-resolution satellites in space – this is Israel’s first war against an enemy with such capabilities. Israel has not reported a single IDF casualty since this war began, but tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians work in those places and in the other big bases that have been attacked.

Meanwhile, estimates are that Israel has less than two weeks left of interceptor missiles. If the US sends everything it can spare, well, that’s maybe two more weeks.

As I said previously:

This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority-targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.

And Iran has only begun to use its better missiles.

I don’t know how the math is working. Israel is sending its cops after Israelis posting video or pictures of attacks. Iran has shut down most outgoing internet. This makes sense for both sides, no reason to let enemies know how successful their attacks are.

Iran has also told its citizens to get rid of WhatsApp and Instagram, as both are easily hacked. Going forward, I’d suggest that all countries need their own OS and their own social networks, hosted in their own countries, at a minimum. China has this. Android and IOS are extremely vulnerable, no matter what apps you’re using. As I’ve been writing for years, carrying a cell phone is carrying a bug, tracking device, and surveillance camera with you at all times. (The best OS for privacy right now appears to be Graphene, which only runs on the most recent Google Pixel phones, I believe.)

As you’ve probably heard, the US is moving three aircraft carrier groups to the Middle East. It’s not clear if the US will join the war. In fact I doubt anyone knows if it will. Even Trump couldn’t tell you, because he changes his mind so often.

Absent the US getting involved, I put the odds in Iran’s favor, but it’s not a strong bet. It’s simply too hard to tell the actual situation. Some claim Israel has complete air dominance over Iran, others say that’s not true, and I don’t know. Likewise, lots of claims are made about how many launchers have been destroyed, but there’s no reason to believe either side on this. Attack volumes from Iran are way down, but is that because of strategy or capability? If it’s capability, they’re sunk. If its strategy, maybe not. It’s quite conceivable they’re holding back a lot as they degrade AD and force the Israelis to run through their AD missiles.

Do bear in mind that Iran has the simplest advantage: It’s much larger than Israel, has a much larger population, and it is an industrial state which has the ability to build its own weapons. China is not going to intervene militarily, but I’m sure they’ll sell Iran as much cheap materials it needs to build more missiles and drones. China has the cheapest and most extensive supply network for both.

The elephant in the room, of course, is that if Israel decides it is losing, it does have nukes, and if any country in the world other than US is psychotic enough to use nuclear weapons, it’s Israel.

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Iran-Israeli War Update

Let’s take this in steps.

Air Defense Iranian air defense was not active for the first attack wave. They were online for the second one, about six hours later. It’s unclear why. I have heard two credible claims. The first is that they were hit by a cyber-attack, but came online faster than the Israelis expected.

The second is that the Iranians deliberately played rope-a-dope. The first attack was largely a matter of stand-off munitions, which the Israelis have (had) very limited supplies of. The Iranians tanked that hit, counting on the fact that most military targets were underground and hardened. Then when the second attack happened, which required close in attack, the air defenses were turned on. Because they had not been compromised in the first attack (air defense use makes air defense visible) they were much more effective.

Intelligence Penetration of Iran This was obviously severe, given the number of senior personnel killed during the initial attacks, and given how much of the initial attacks were carried out by drones and automated anti-air defense inside Iran. But what needs to be understood is that Mossad’s networks are being severely degraded. Intelligence networks which are passive, which don’t do anything very active, can exist for years or even decades, but when they go live and are actually used for attacks assets are exposed. Reports are pouring out of Iran of raids on Israeli intelligence agents and collaborators, and while they may be overstated, I find them credible, because it’s how such things work. Israel has gone big, and they are burning assets.

Iranian Counter-Attack This was strong, but not as strong as it could have been. While there’s reason to believe that a lot of the missile launchers hit were dummies, the Iranians should have been able to launch about a thousand missiles in a salvo, and they didn’t. Air defense systems are very subject to be being overwhelmed by numbers. Now it’s possible that they didn’t because they wanted the data from initial strikes to pinpoint air defense, and that each wave was designed to “clear a path”, the first strike, even, hit hard: taking out a lot of military assets and state capacity.

It should also be noted that Iran has not used its most advanced missiles yet. The stuff being sent is mostly old crap that would have been decommissioned in a few years anyway, interspersed with some better missiles, but not the most recent varieties. Iran still has a lot held for future attacks.

If you need a little cheering up, this video compilation of hits on Tel Aviv (obviously partial), may help.

Here is some footage of destruction:

Some footage of destruction in Tel Aviv itself.

All of this is much worse than the previous Iranian attacks. Real destruction. I will point out that if Iran had done this after the embassy assassinations they might have restored deterrence and not suffered this particular attack. Cowardice has its price, and it is often greater than that of bravery.

Finally, from the IDF itself:

Israel does not have enough interceptors and air defense to stop the Iranians from completely devastating their country, which is why they are begging everyone to help them. Iran is already beginning to target Israeli Air Defense. US naval assets can only help so much, as they carry limited supplies and the US itself produces very few air defense missiles every year. Using them all up in Israel will make America completely defenseless in any other war (and Zelensky is already squealing.)

This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.

And What About Nukes? Well, I find this interesting. Directly contradicting Khameini in public is important.

Iranian Major General Mohsen Rezaei on Iranian Radio and Television:

We are still exercising restraint and have not deployed all our capabilities to avoid global chaos.

However, we may reach a point where we use new weapons.

We are seeking to form an Islamic army with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and several other countries.

We should move towards the atomic bomb, but according to the Supreme Leader’s fatwa, we do not currently intend to build nuclear weapons.

Iraq should know, it is their turn after us. Iran may be forced to take actions that could destabilize the entire region.

It is, of course, obvious that if Iran had nukes, much or most of this would never have happened. North Korean leaders do not worry about being murdered in their sleep by foreign missiles, drones and bombs.

The China Syndrome. All of the materials required to build drones and ballistic missiles are available, cheap, from China. China gets a lot of oil from Iran, uses Iran for transhipment, and is in general a major ally of Iran. It is also aware that taking out Iran is one of the steps before war with it. Just as I said that China would not allow Russia to be taken out by sanctions (and was right), I expect China in the case of any sort of duration of this war, and, indeed, after it, to supply Iran with everything it needs to ramp up production of missiles and drones. Since China’s production abilities exceed those of the West when it comes to these requirements, this is not a small thing.

No Army Means No Fall. Iran cannot be defeated by airpower alone unless there is a significant uprising in the country which the army is unable or unwilling to stop. One should never underestimate the CIA’s regime change abilities, of course, but if they don’t pull it off then this war is about reducing Iran’s power projection ability: doing enough damage that they surrender in spirit if not in fact.

The Khameini Problem. Nations rot from the top, and this is clearly the fundamental problem in Iran. Khameini is cautious, even timid. He has underplayed his hand every single time during this crisis, most importantly when not sending ground troops to stop the fall of Assad. This caused great problems with the younger members of the Revolutionary Guard, who are hardliners almost to a man. The elimination of senior members of defense and government is not strengthening moderates, it is strengthening hardliners.

Israel has said that Khameini is not off-limits for murder. If they do so, it will be a huge mistake. It will end the non-nuclear fatwa (though the Iraniams will lie about that) and put hardliners in charge. Ironically, the best thing Khameini could do for Iran right now is be Martyred. If Allah Wills It, let it be so. I don’t want to get too down on him, in many ways he’s run Iran very well, but he is a victim of Machiavelli’s dictum that when times change most leaders can’t change with the times and the virtues that made them good leaders in the past make them terrible leaders in the present.

The Russia/China Issue. Iran could have had a full military alliance with Russia. If they did, they’d be in a lot stronger position. Iran really wants to be an independent major regional power. The other option is to be the junior partner in a tripartate bloc with China and Russia. I understand why they want to avoid that, but being in the world’s strongest alliance (and yes, that’s what it would be) comes with an absolute ton of benefits. They need to reconsider this issue. They will get some support from Russia and China, indeed, a lot of support, but neither country is going to go all out for them. If either would, Iran would be in a lot less danger.

Final Ironic Cowardly Nazi Note. 

Most of Iran’s air and missile command was killed in an underground bunker during a meeting. Hezbollah’s senior leaders were killed in an underground bunker during a meeting. Israel knows Iran has missiles capable of doing the same thing to them, but they know that Iran won’t strike a hospital to kill them. They of course have destroyed many hospitals, in one were the high command of their enemies hiding.

May God grant the side of good, whichever side that is, victory in this conflict and bring an end to genocide.

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Israel Hits Iran Hard

The senior commanders of the air and missile forces are dead, and so is the commander of the Revolutionary Guard. Multiple nuclear sites were hit, plus civilian targets.

Iran previously threatened that if Israel hit their nuclear program, they would hit Israel’s nuclear sites in retaliation.

Iran’s leadership are incompetent. That statement will enrage some readers and commenters, but they have allowed their allies to be taken out one by one, they have not yet launched significant retaliation, and their current actions, sending a hundred drones to attack Israel, are pathetic. It is no favor to them to pretend their strategy is working; it is clearly failing.

They should have had a plan for an immediate, overwhelming counter-attack. Iran’s missile force is massive and has proven able to penetrate Israeli defenses.

Once again Iran has underestimated Mossad’s penetration of their services; the air chiefs were taken out in a meeting at an underground bunker — exactly what was done to Hezbollah’s leadership. Iranian air defenses don’t appear to have intercepted anything of significance.

The entire conflict has seen the “Resistance,” with the exception of Ansar-Allah, allow Israel to set the terms of engagement, choose when attacks happen, telegraph their own rare attacks, and allow complete control of the initiative to Israel.

If Iran isn’t going to fight, it should submit. Give up its nuclear program, then slowly be destroyed by Israel and the US over a period of years, until they fall like Syria and Libya did. (Remember always that Libya was taken out after Gadaffi gave up his nuclear program, and that Iran was invaded not because it had WMD, but because it didn’t.)

If Iran is going to fight, it needs to take the gloves off and seize the initiative. Hit unexpected targets. Don’t telegraph moves. Make sure its allies have real dangerous weapons. Get the Houthis some serious anti-ship missiles, for example.

By letting their allies be badly damaged (Hezbollah) or destroyed (Syria), Iran finds themselves almost alone in the conflict. If they had been launching missiles throughout the first year of the war and had rescued Syria, they would be in a vastly better position now.

They also have either been lying about their nuclear program (and have some nukes) or have been complete and utter fools by refusing to get nukes. The idea that they could insist on their rights under the non-proliferation agreement is absurd, and has always been ridiculous. They were never going to be allowed to operate an enrichment program for civilian use. They could either join the nuclear club or submit, because only nukes guarantee the continued existence of their country and form of government.

Trump claims the US was not involved (I’m sure they at least helped with targeting and intel), but has made savage threats. The US and Israel will dismantle Iran if it does not make it clear that the cost of doing so is more than Israel and the US can stand.

Hit back. Hard. Or submit. Or die.

Those are the options. Stop talking about Resistance and actually fight.

Remember what happened to Gaddafi. Does Khameini want to die after being sodomized by a knife?

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