The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Age of War and Revolution Page 5 of 31

2025 Is The Year The US Empire Acknowledged The End of Hegemony

Let’s keep this brief. In 2025 the US:

  • Gave up trying to win the Ukraine war;
  • Turned NATO from a vassal protection scheme into a vassal looting scheme;
  • Slashed scientific spending massively;
  • Lost a trade war to China;
  • Doubled down on the AI Bubble, in a race it will lose;
  • Was humiliated by China’s rare-Earth sanctions, realizing it couldn’t build weapons without China;
  • Pivoted hard to trying to hold onto Latin America, after almost all Latin American countries had replaced the US with China as their main trade partner;
  • Went to war with their own university system;
  • Realized (this is now widespread) that dollar hegemony is almost over;
  • completely destroyed what remained of their moral soft power to enable a genocide in Palestine, making everyone realize America is run by people who might as well be Nazis;
  • Was governed by the most corrupt and stupid President of the 20th and 21st centuries; and,
  • Gave up on solar and renewable energy.

Some of this is sort of admirable. Ukraine can’t be won, so you might as well not pretend it can be and acknowledging the end of dollar hegemony is wise. Pivoting to the Americas won’t work in the medium run, but it’s at least an acknowledgement of actual power realities.

However basically the US now knows that it is weaker than China. China has a larger navy by ship number, and it won’t be long before they have more tonnage (if they wanted to, they could have larger navy by tonnage in two years, they have the capacity.) The Chinese and Russians have more advanced missiles and drones, and far more production capacity. The Chinese are ahead in almost all tech areas with only a few bastions (civil aviation, chips, space launch being the most important ones) remaining and all those bastions are under assault and WILL fall. There is precisely no question that in 10 years, perhaps even five, China will be equal to the West or ahead in every important technology and almost all non-important techs.

What people are not understanding is that while the US may be able to turn Venezuela (MAY) their days of throwing their weight around are almost over. The drone/missile revolution and China’s advances in making them cheap and abundant mean that sitting offshore and freely bombing other nations is a strategy whose best-by date is now in sight.

The US/West had already lost years ago in the most important sense: all the important trends (tech, industrial capacity, military build capacity, shipbuilding) were running against it and there was zero possibility that those trends would change. For over 20 years I have pointed out that US policy and international trends meant the US dollar would lose its reserve and default trade status, now it is becoming common wisdom.

2025 wasn’t the year the US lost, but it was the year when everyone with two brain cells to rub together and even a smidgen of objectivity realized it.

The US is still a great power, and ex-hegemons do not go gracefully into that long night. America will kill and impoverish a lot of foreigners and Americans as its decline accelerates.

But it is all over but the shooting, and 2025 is the year it became impossible to argue otherwise without people laughing in your face.

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American Sanctions Are Now Benefiting Countries

The war against Russia was a big bet on sanctions. The Russian military was always stronger than Ukraine, but the West believed that sanctions would destroy the Russian economy, enabling a win and hopefully weakening Russia so much that it could be broke up.

Instead Russia’s economy has performed better since the war than it did before. Sanctions encouraged re-industrialization and Russian and Chinese businesses replaced Western ones.

Venezuela has been under sanctions ever since Chavez launched his Bolivarian revolution. Every year there are more sanctions. For a while, it worked. But…

That’s right, the most sanctioned country in South America has the highest GDP growth. It’s not doing as well as it was a couple years ago, but it’s still growing fastest.

This explains, in part, the desperate attempt to overthrow Maduro and install an American backed government.

The simple truth is that America and Europe just don’t matter much any more:

No one needs the West any more. They’ve got China. Thus the oil blockade, which is a simple act of piracy. Sanctioned ships are only sanctioned by the West, not by the countries that Venezuela is sending oil to like Cuba, China and Iran. This is a last ditch effort to collapse Venezuela’s economy, in a way that failed with Russia. The bet is simple enough: you can’t really mass-seize Russian ships, because Russia is a great power and anyway, increasingly oil is shipped by land. Venezuela has one major weakness left and Trump, led by the nose by Neocons and Cuban exiles is making a last gasp government change effort.

We’ll see if it succeeds. My money is on “no”, though they can cause a lot of damage along the way, and probably hope that seeing the damage, other countries will be dissuaded from outright hostility to America.

My bet is that it doesn’t work: Chinese and Russian anti-ship and and anti-air systems will be sold in vast quantities to developing countries and increasingly America will find itself unable to enforce blockades. It couldn’t even defeat Ansar-Allah, after all.

The twilight of Empire is an ugly time, but this is America’s twilight.

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Western Leadership Is The Most Worthless In My Life

Which is saying something,  because worthless has been in charge of the West for generations. There are no leaders in charge of any major Western country who aren’t functionally morons.

Europe is run by utter idiots who want war with Russia, refuse to acknowledge that Ukraine is losing, are actively speeding up their loss of industry and imagine they can bully China and think America was their friend before Trump.

Trump is the stupidest president of my lifetime. No one else even comes close. Reagan with Alzheimers was better. Congress is a sewer of morons. Every major American politician, even AOC and Bernie, are functionally psychopaths. (Yes, both Bernie and AOC have repeatedly voted to send more money and weapons to Israel.)

Britain’s Starmer is the stupidest PM of my lifetimes and stunningly incompetent and evil. Yes, his job is to make rich people richer and suck off Netanyahu, but a competent pol would do that without destroying Labour as a party.

Macron has accomplished nothing for France except to make it weaker and its citizens poorer. Germany’s government is presiding over the destruction of a German industrial base that is 150 years old and one of the greatest in the world: the very foundation of Germany’s power and affluence.

Australia is acting as if America is more important to them than China with a military buildup, which is insane since Australia’s future is with China, or it has no future. Japan is antagonizing China, again, insane, without a serious plan. Either make nice or try and get nukes, there are no other paths.

Everyone is destroying free speech to symp for a genocide. Everyone is immiserating their own populations, setting up serious future political instability.

The US is all-in on AI, spending trillions it does not have, driving up energy prices, and creating a larger more concentrated bubble than the real-estate bubble which caused the 2008 crash. If AI is everything they say, it will utterly destroy the US economy by replacing 30% of workers, and if it isn’t, it’ll never pay back all the resources spent. Plus China will win the AI race anyway, since no one with sense will pay for a proprietary model when Chinese open source models are about as good and mean you can’t suddenly be hit with a massive price increase or rate restrictions.

Politicians are either ignoring climate change and doubling down on fossil fuels (which are more expensive than solar) or using climate change as an excuse to immiserate their own people.

Britain is destroying their own farmers.

Meanwhile morons are constantly whining about fertility rates when humanity is in population overshoot so severe that it is causing the second fastest great extinction in Earth’s history. Most countries would be better off with fewer people, but because they don’t know how to stabilize an economy whose population isn’t always growing leaders and their intellectual dupes are panicking.

Only China is handling this with some grace, but they’re not Western. They’re trying to increase fertility somewhat but have accepted there will be population decreases and are moving hard on robotics to care for an aging population and reduce the need for workers.

There isn’t a single major challenge that the West is facing that our leaders are not actively making worse, not better. Not a single one. It’s extraordinary. Even Nixon managed to sign Clean Air and Water Act and to pivot on China. Reagan reduced nuclear weapons. Clinton made everything worse long-term, but was able to manage the economy during his Presidency, at least, so that it felt good to ordinary people, including pushing oil prices under $20/barrel. George Bush Sr. managed the collapse of the USSR with grace. Biden had good anti-trust policy and half decent industrial policy. Trump has done nothing good of significance. Nothing. Even when he has a good idea (tariffs, reduction in H1-B Visas) he fucks it up completely because he can’t execute and has the attention span of a coked up flea.

This reminds me of the Weimar Republic or the late Roman Empire. Most things can be fixed in principle: in theory. Nothing can be fixed in practice because leadership is beyond corrupt and incompetent, high on their own wealth and convinced they are the masters of universe and that reality is what they want it to be.

Prepare, if you’re in the West. By all means feel free to keep working at the politics, but don’t count on it. Instead prepare as individuals and groups. Government isn’t going to save you, not in the West. Your leaders are the number one danger to you, more than any outsider, “terrorist” or “foreign enemy.” Treat them as such, and protect yourselves from them.

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We Don’t Have To Live In Hell

A friend of mine once used the metaphor of “The Lords of Hell” to describe most of the world. There are a few people with lots of money and power, a few billion people who live in constant fear of not having enough, and a billion or so who don’t have enough. There is more than sufficient food in the world to feed everyone, but people go hungry. The entire western world has more empty homes than it does homeless people, yet there are increasing numbers of homeless. It costs less to give everyone health care than it does to “optimize returns” yet sick people go without medicine and help, and the disabled at left to rot with the least possible care in many countries. (Britain has literally stopped paying for wheelchairs for many disabled.)

Over the years my writing has had many themes, but they all boil down to one Ur-Theme.

We don’t have to live in hell. It’s a choice.

We have other choices. There are ways to make the economy work for everyone, and ways that we, the human species, can live well without driving mass numbers of other species to extinction. Indeed, by destroying the environment and extincting other species, we damage the very ecosystem which, long term, makes our own prosperity and well-being possible.

The worst lie in the world is always some version of “there is no other option. This is as good as it can be.”

It has many variants. “Capitalism is the only thing that can work.” “Some people must be homeless and poor for the economy to work.” “We need that oil no matter how many species die.” “People will only work if they’re driven by fear.” “Rich people are job creators”. “Human nature means we’ll always be evil and mean.” “Everything has to be owned by someone because commons don’t work.” (They have worked for hundreds of years at a time.)

Many, many more.

They are all lies. As humans we have an angelic nature as well as a demonic one. One of the most useful books to read in this regard is “A Heaven Made In Hell.” The author studied how people act after great catastrophes. Strangely enough behaviour like looting occurs far less than people helping each other, coming together and fixing things. In fact, people who go through this often find it was heavenly: for once almost everyone is taking care of everyone. Trust and community flourish.

There is great joy in helping. Great joy in care. Great joy in not being scared all the time. The best economies are always full of optimism and hope and have a rising tide that lifts all boats. (Rising tides don’t lift all boats unless we make sure that no boats have holes in their hulls.)

China has, recently, proved this yet again, despite some significant flaws. (FDR proved it before, and he was not the first.) We can take care of each other. We can live without fear that one bad bounce means homelessness, misery and death.

It’s a choice. We have made other choices far too often, but we can choose to be happy, prosperous and realistically optimistic because we take care of each other.

And while my writing often seems negative, this is the hope that underpins my criticisms. There is no point in criticizing something if some law of nature means that it must be so. But there is, despite claims otherwise, no law of nature which says we have to be bastards to each other or to the species we share this world with.

And in that is a genuine hope.

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Revisiting The Ivy League “Super Conformer” Thesis

Back in 2021 I wrote

What the Ivies have tended towards for generations now are “super conformers” — straight As and spent all their time in adult run extra-curriculars. People who spent all their time doing what authority wants. But in the past, they did seek out a few of the very smartest, too.

But, with the triumphal fall of the USSR and the “End of History” the Ivies decided that the system no longer needed smart people and stopped looking for them, they wanted nothing but super-conformers. But every system needs some smart people who aren’t entirely conformist.

This was anecdotal but fit everything I was seeing. Now here’s another data point:

This tracks my interactions with Ivy League grads exactly. Some of the older ones are brilliant, but anyone younger than their later 40s is a drone. Perhaps an intelligent drone, but a drone nonetheless.

People who are super conformers can’t actually be good analysts or creatives, because they can’t think original thoughts or challenge consensus views. And if you can’t do that, you can’t do paradigm changing real things or say “uh, boss, what we’re doing won’t work.”

American elites didn’t want any non-conformists any more. They wanted smart yes-men. So they lost Russia and sold their military, technological and industrial lead to China. They got filthy rich in exchange, in dollars that in 20 years won’t buy anything that matters internationally, leaving them as the equivalent of rich Indians in 1990. Yeah, you have servants and gold toilets and a mansion, but you run a country that doesn’t actually matter, and outside your gilded circle your society is a garbage dump. (If you visited India in those years you know that’s barely a metaphor. It’s just a description.)

What I have seen over and over again thru my adult life is that being right against the consensus is a career killer. (It sure did nothing for my career, but I’ve seen it in plenty of cases so this isn’t just “Ian is a bitter failure!” Heh.) I remember a study looking at media pundits who got the Iraq war right: people in the system already—fired, laid off or never promoted again. Pundits who got it wrong, but with the consensus? Their careers did well, thanks.

Incentives like this are picked up on quickly. You want everyone to be wrong with the elite consensus? You’ll get it! (See Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein for the centrist pundit versions.)

And this is just as true in most corporations. Look at all the morons jumping on the AI train. Spending trillions rather than just waiting and buying the tech once it’s clear which models work (and probably just using a Chinese open source model.)

Now, of course, this “be wrong with the crowd” incentive has always been most of the case in the sense that being wrong against the crowd would get you fired, and being wrong with the crowd wouldn’t usually hurt your career. But there was a time when the mavericks who were right against the crowd were rewarded and glorified, and that mattered.

Post collapse of the USSR and during the “End of History” era (Fukuyama is the poster boy for “got everything wrong but said what elites wanted to hear so was rewarded far beyond his merits”) elites didn’t want to hear anything but how everything they produced, including their shit, smelled like roses. There was no competition, so they didn’t have to be competent or care about results.

Or so they thought. Turns out that Russia wasn’t down permanently, just for a generation or two, and that China was real competition, but being smart they followed Deng’s prescription “Hide your strength, bide your time” and sucked up to American elites, whispering “send us your industry and we’ll make you rich and you won’t have to put up with uppity American workers and unions!”

American elites got what they wanted. The pure peace of being able to smash anyone who contradicted them, the joy of forcing workers to work for less and less and shut the fuck up about wanting to share in profits, vast wealth, plus two generations of courtiers who were entirely yes men, telling them how wonderful they were. “Oh no my lord, your shit smells like lilacs! Yes my lord, I’d love to lick it up, it tastes like bacon!”

China got what it wanted: the tech and industrial lead and the end of American hegemony.

No leader worth his salt doesn’t have a few people around him saying “you know, Jack, I don’t think this is a good idea.”

It’s been a long time since America had any leaders worth their salt.

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Higher US Profits Are WHY The US Can’t Compete (American won’t re-industrialize)

A couple weeks ago we discussed why money still flows into America: returns are higher.

Generally US assets are highly valued and money tends to flow into the US over other countries. This is because US assets out-perform. The Chinese stock market, like the US market of the 50s and 60s, trades sideways. The US stock market since Greenspan never stops going up: crashes are just speed bumps. Likewise, US housing prices just keep going up, and so on.

On its face, money flooding into the US seems odd. After all, it’s not even close to the world’s most dynamic economy. China is ahead in 80% of technologies, the world’s largest manufacturer, and increasing its lead. In the last 3 years it has increased the numbers of cars it produces by five times, surpassing the US, Japan, South Korea and Germany, all of whom it was behind.

This is a good thing (sort of) if you’re rich and own a lot of assets in the US. It is a bad thing if you don’t, and you’re American. (Europe is similar, but in some ways better for ordinary people.)

American companies just aren’t competitive, because they are always seeking higher profits, which means higher prices, and they actively work to make sure there is no real competition inside the US. Everyone wants to be a monopoly or part of an oligopoly. They want a “moat”, something that means other companies can’t compete with them and government refuses to regulate price gouging.

That produces higher returns, but if you’re going up against a country which has actual competitive markets you’re screwed because they have lower prices and always will. This is the argument for tariffs, to keep American companies competitive in America against cheaper foreign goods. To re-industrialize it would have to be profitable, and it isn’t. The US market is increasingly only America and whatever allies can be convinced to tariff China (which many do, but will they continue to do so?)

Plus, even then, American companies won’t invest unless they can make profits higher than what Chinese companies would accept.

American companies are all financialized. They’re looking for unfair profits, they’re not actually competitive and worse, they don’t want to compete.

OTOH, a lot of Chinese companies are sharks. They compete savagely and they are willing to cut profits razor thin to gain market share.

Additionally the Chinese just move faster, and they have 90% of their own stack in China, while the US has less than 50%. America, ironically, needs China’s help if it wants to rapidly re-industrialize, it needs aggressive anti-trust enforcement, and it needs to change various laws to make financialization far more difficult.

Start with just outlawing PE. Get rid of stock buybacks. Stop pumping the stock market. Ruthlessly go after everyone deliberately raising real-estate, rent, food and other prices.

Slash, in general, all excess profits (like healthcare). Crash the cost structure. Free up consumer demand.

Everything’s being spent on AI, which is increasing energy costs for every other business in the country, and draining investment from anything actually productive. and the US cannot win the AI race, it’s impossible. At best it can get a draw and I doubt it’ll even get that. Chinese AI is open source and uses far less energy, plus the Chinese are building new energy like crazy.

To re-industrialize and compete with China is impossible for the time being. Not in theory, it’s possible theoretically, but it is impossible in practice.

Why? Because NO ONE in power or who can get into power wants to give up their outsized unfair financialized profits.

This is why it’s all Kabuki bullshit. China will keep pulling away. The US cannot compete, because the US refuses to compete. Its only effective policy is to loot its vassals, but that won’t save it.

To a large degree this is why I don’t bother with wonky analysis any more, except occasionally to show it’s pointless. The game is over. The US lost its last chance in 2009, everything since then has just been playing out a game the US cannot win because its elites will never allow the policies necessary to win.

The only way out is thru. The US economy will have to essentially collapse, this type of elite will have to be driven entirely out of power and replaced by industrial elites. Only IF and THEN will it be possible to re-industrialize. That is, best case, a decade in the future, and will start from an even worse position than now.

By then we’ll have even worse climate change and cascading environmental problems.

The next 40 years are going to be UGLY for most of the West.

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The Loss Of American Dollar Privilege Is The Second Most Important Factor In US Decline

Dollar privilege: everyone using the dollar for trade, and the US controlling the system that moves currency around the world is important. When it goes away, and it will in the next five years, I’d guess, the US will take a huge hit to its ability to command the world’s resources and will lose most of its ability to sanction anyone outside the US vassaldom area. (And the vassals will find it easier to leave if they choose.)

But to see the loss of dollar privilege as primary is a huge mistake. It’s downstream from the only thing that really matters: actual national capacity.

Industrial output, tech, secure resource availability (people, food, energy, rare earths, oil, uranium, etc.)

Fundamentally everything flows from having the most industry and the tech lead, combined with enough resources to make use of that industry and tech lead. Dollar privilege happened because after WWII the US controlled over 50% of the world’s manufacturing ability and was the most powerful non-Soviet state in the world. As such, in a cold war situation, it took charge and created a “free” world in the image it wanted. That certainly included controlling money and money flows, and if you wanted or needed anything you either had to get it from the US and over time its allies (Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) or from the USSR. When the USSR went away, the US was able to go hog-wild with sanctions, because there was not alternative to using their system and buying from them and their allies.

Now there is. Almost everything you want you can get from China, Russia or some nation outside the “West”. There are exceptions, but they are small in number and that number is decreasing every year. It won’t be long before China delivers satellites to orbit cheaper than the US and had domestic jets that don’t have to buy jet engines (one of those last things) from the West. And hey, virtually everything the Chinese sell is cheaper than if you buy it from the West.

But this is not just about civilian stuff. The fact is that China’s military tech is now more advanced than America’s in most areas. Better missiles. Better drones. Better jets. On top of that they have far more capacity to build ships and drones and missiles and weapons and ammunition than does the West.

Industry/tech (and the resources to use them)=military power. America had a tiny army before WWII, but was able to ramp up seemingly overnight because it had more industry than anyone else. There is zero possibility of America winning a conventional war against China. Zero. Cannot happen. The last chance of doing it was a “resource choke” but that can’t be done now because Russia isn’t going to cooperate. It required Russia as an ally.

To return to our initial point, dollar privilege is a lagging indicator. You get currency domination after you’ve already won, and you lose it after you’ve lost. Once you are no longer the world’s leading industrial and technological state you will lose it, the only question is when. America could have kept it for quite a long time if America’s leaders hadn’t abused it with constant sanctions because while currency privilege has advantages it’s also damaging to the actual productive economy of whoever has it and China is going to great lengths to avoid this.

But as it stands everyone with sense wants out, so the US will lose dollar privilege soon thru most of the world, without, if China can manage it, China creating Yuan privilege.  America may retain it in relation to the usual vassals: the anglosphere, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Europe, but once the alternative exists (and the Chinese and Russians have and are building those alternatives) and has reached critical mass, one by one even the vassals will move to using other systems in addition to SWIFT and will make themselves largely sanctions proof.

This is another “last days of the American Empire” thing, and thank God. Dollar privilege has been used, literally, to kill many millions of people thru the world, and to impoverish hundreds of millions. It will be a great day for every non-American when it ends.

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American Will Try To Maintain The Monroe Doctrine. Can It?

The Chief of Staff hints as much:

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs hints at military combat deployment “in our own neighborhood.” GEN. DAN CAINE: “ We haven’t had a lot of American combat power in our own neighborhood; I suspect that’s probably gonna change. We’ll see what we’re ordered to do.”

Venezuela is the current target, but there have been rumblings about Colombia, and you just know every slavering knuckle dragging neocon wants another crack at Cuba.

China gets a lot of resources from Latin America, and they want more. America regards Latin America as its backyard, the place where it has a right to overthrow governments at its whim, and where no other great power is allowed.

Obviously most South American countries not currently run by US aligned regimes aren’t too thrilled with the danger America constantly represents if they do anything the US doesn’t like. So they’ve been increasing their ties to China.

America is weakening. It’s falling behind China militarily, economically and technologically, and it will continue to do so. What it does still have, however, is far more military projection ability than China, and Latin America is nearby.

The US can’t offer Latin American nations as good an economic deal as China: America doesn’t need as much resources, its goods are more expensive, it charges more for loans and it no longer build bridges, ports, hospitals, railroads and so on.

Any sane Latin American country is going to want to move under China’s economic sphere, and most of them have. Even Argentina, an American lackey. (Milei talked big about cutting trade with China till he got in power, then he backed down fast.)

Worse, China has cheap effective drones and far better missiles than America, including anti-ship missiles. Plus air defense systems.

So the window for using military force to get friendly governments in charge of Latin American countries is closing. The longer the US waits, the harder it will be and before long it’ll be impossible. Bring those aircraft carriers close enough to be useful, start a war, and you’ll eventually lose one once China has finished arming its allies. (Plus Russia will happily sell as well, especially once the Ukraine war is over. Revenge is a dish best served cold and with a side of missile.)

This, it should be clear, is a desperation move. It is an attempt by a great power in serious decline to hold on to some remnants of its empire. It is part of a general move to try and tax vassals at a ferocious rate (that’s what the 5% of GDP on military goods is, a tax. Buy American weapons!) At the same time the US is trying to remove industry from its vassals and re-shore it. These efforts will succeed for a while and fail in the longer run, but they’re what the US has, since it can’t actually generate real growth (not fake GDP growth, but the real thing) itself any more.

In the medium run, the US will not be able to keep the Monroe doctrine running. The military advantage has just moved too much to new weapons which are cheap and effective at damaging the US military projection stack. If the US couldn’t even keep the sea lanes open against the Ansar Allah (the Houthis), when real countries, even developing ones, get their hands on enough Chinese and Russian missiles, drones and air defense, it’s all over.

Then, slowly, the Chinese will overthrow most of the puppet states, because they just have more resources and offer a better deal and will be seen as friendly. Countries near China may be scared of it, countries in Latin America know they’re far enough away that what it offers is a far better deal with far fewer chains than the US can, or ever did. (The same is true of Africa.)

This all falls under “Empires do not go quiet to that long night”. It could be very bloody. But the end is not in question. I doubt they’ll even hold on to Mexico. The way they’re going, America might eventually even lose control of Canada. Incompetence, greed and denial are powerful drugs, and America is high on all of them.

The long night approaches for the American Empire. Other than Europe and Japan’s comprador leaders, few will miss it.

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