Long term readers will know that I’ve been negative on Britain for a long time. Corbyn was their last chance to turn things around, but Corbyn lacked the necessary ruthlessness to win, and was destroyed by absolutely bullshit allegations of anti-semitism. Starmer became Labour leader after him, on promises of left wing policies which even a child should have disbelieved, and ruthlessly purged Labour of all left wingers.
Conservatives ran stupid governments with horrid policies which led to inflation and continued de-industrialization, and Starmer backed into power. His policies are worse than the Conservatives, with draconian cuts to social welfare policies like child support, heat for old people, and wheelchairs for cripples. The last British steel plant is shutting down, and the next party to rule Britain (as I also predicted) seems likely to be Reform:
It showed that if a General Election were held tomorrow, 25% of UK voters would choose Reform, 24% chose Labour and 21% would vote for the Tories.
The party topped a Find Out Now Westminster poll last week, with Farage’s party on 26% of the vote – outstripping the Tories (on 23%) and pushing Labour into third place (on 22%).
While this is even or only a slight lead, Labour’s policies, which include selling a big chunk of the UK to Blackrock, will continue to be extremely damaging and unpopular, so I expect Reform to continue its rise.
Reform’s policies, should it come into government, will be absolutely disastrous, Trump/DOGE style shoot yourself in the foot, then realized there’s still plenty left to blow away.
Meanwhile Wales. Wales, which has been under English rule for over 700 years now pols in the 30s for support for independence. Scottish support is in the high 40s, sometimes spiking over 50, with support for going concentrated among the youngest Scots. Northern Ireland is around 40% for joining Ireland.
Again, as things become worse, I expect these numbers to increase. In twenty years, I don’t expect there to be a United Kingdom (the union of Scotland and England.)
There’s no easy recovery from what has happened to the UK as there’s no prospect of a government which will seriously try to re-industrialize. As China continues its rise, and as the US dollar loses its hegemonic status, the City of London financial center will continue to weaken and, well, the UK will have less and less the world wants, which is bad since the UK can’t even feed itself, and has limited natural resources, especially if Scotland leaves.
It’s over. The English had a good run from 1500 to 2000 or so, but all nations face periods of decline and poverty. Britain’s will soon be upon them, and given how authoritarian England is becoming, it won’t even have a lot of freedom to offer. If you’re British, and can, get out. Now.
Jefferson Hamilton
“Get out now.”
And go where, though? Canada? Where in the anglosphere (or even Europe) is not having massive problems? I’m sure even NZ is cracking even though it doesn’t get much of the headlines. China doesn’t want you.
Mark Level
Woah, Ian, Woah!! You neglect to mention one of Starmer’s “greatest” achievements, which will save not just Imperial Britannia (Long May She Rule) but another great Spartan War state, that of Ukraine, dedicated to the conquest of Eurasia on behalf of “the white race”, Aryans, and the Noble Lost Cause–a 4th Reich with Germany is the goal, as in the early 40s, the Russians aren’t the only dirty Slavs who will be defeated under the boot of the Master Race, Poland, Romania etc. will also be on the chopping block!!
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/17/what-has-the-uk-promised-ukraine-in-starmers-100-year-deal
Starting with a “100 year deal”, only a Century of unified fascism is thoughtful and realistic, no need to over-promise as the 1,000 Year Reich promised only lasted 12 years (1933-45.) Well, except for the Rump Nazis in Canada, Argentina, Chile, Ohio and Illinois, but these people never managed full rule.
So Starmer’s gutting of national health, safety, infrastructure is all justified by following the policy of the Tories (as Starmer brags to the Labour constituency) and propping up Europe’s “Sick Man” for another century of war with the evil Reds.
I love this paragraph– “Starmer also pledged 3 billion pounds ($3.6bn) a year in military aid “for as long as it takes” and announced 40 million pounds ($48.7m) for an economic recovery programme to provide additional support on grain verification and trade, but it is unclear when the economic aid will be paid to Ukraine.”
Where’s the money coming from? And where will it go? My prediction: to more nice mansions for Zelensky & his family members in countrys not yet covered. He has Florida property, City of London, Israel (for his mom), Tuscany, and elsewhere, gotta get this brave hero up to at least a dozen properties to reward his courage against renascent Communism and the “yellow hordes” of the East (which is Red, never forget!!) For those with long memories, Zelensky and the evil Putin at one time had something in common, they both appeared in The Panama Papers as people with assets hidden abroad to dodge taxes.
What about troops? The Brits have next to none. They have “more Admirals than ships”, as the joke goes.
Shifting away from sinking Britannia, Z. finally folded and signed “the Ukraine Minerals Deal” with the US. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/after-trump-bullies-zelensky-during-white-house-meeting-us-ukraine-sign-minerals-deal-1733283 Trump promised they would repay the $200 billion we’d given them to terrorize Russian speakers & Muscovites since Nuland’s 2014 Maidan coup, I’m assuming, which won’t happen, it is now a $0 repayment (just like what the Mexicans paid to build Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Wall” in term 1), BUT–
Interesting coincidence, the signing yesterday was on the 50th anniversary of the US’s miserable defeat in Vietnam (as someone on NCap pointed out yesterday). So much for Trump’s promises to be a “Peace President.” The insane plan is that the US will take over and profit directly (a “business deal”) from Ukrainian infrastructure including gas pipelines ultimately served by the enemy, Russia, and also take back the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power plant which the Russians occupy, and have temporarily shut down as the Ukrainians constantly shell it. (I wonder if the shelling will stop if the Axis decides it should be preserved for them?)
Everything that hasn’t already been handed to Blackrock, et al will now be US-“owned”, Trump Gaza failed (for now) but Trump Ukraine is coming and it’ll be BIG, baby, BIG!! Another Taj Mahal, no doubt. The Ukrainians will continue losing territory and being thrown into a wood chipper, and IF (which won’t ever happen) they prevail in 20 or 30 years, “as long as it takes” will be a Serf/Servant class in their own ruins. Will the Donald or JD allow Starmer and the Brits a little slice of the pie? Methinks we all know the answer to that, they agree with Vicky Nuland on one thing, “Fuck the EU.”
Shifting to World geopolitics, this means the obvious– All of Biden’s Wars are now Trump’s Wars. An old dog cannot learn a new trick!! The US will get bogged down in Eurasia, attacking Iran is not worth the effort and the Zionist Entity will be run as a secondary concern, not quite primary, financially at least. The biggest winner is Ghina, no way can the Empire run 3 wars at once. Also, any actual boots on the ground in UK will be a mix of Euro-chihuahuas who are “morally” committed to impoverishing their deindustrialized economy to an Endless war with EastAsia, plus a few high paid US Mercenaries (Eric Prince needs to make a living) to direct the carnage.
The MAGA voters got as thoroughly betrayed as the Bernie voters who sucked it up for the Bidet . . . Obama famously joked “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up,” on many occasions. Well, whichever choice we make, we get the same shit sandwich, now the Orange, wet one instead of the dry, white one. Plus ca change . . .
Daniil Adamov
And if Scotland does leave, what do you make of its prospects as an independent nation?
Ian Welsh
Scotland’s chances depend on the competence of their leadership at the time, I don’t know enough to guess. They seem less insane than English leadership, anyway. They’ll rejoin the EU if it hasn’t collapsed.
Mark Pontin
That’s me warned then
I don’t know what Scotland or Wales are going to do, though. Scotland’s deficit was revised up from £9 billion to nearly £18 billion in 2023-24, making Scotland’s deficit per person around £3,200, which is £1,300 higher per person than the UK average. It’s in substantially worse shape than the UK.
Then, if it leaves, what currency does it use? Scottish nationalists tell themselves stories about maximizing energy exports in a way that London doesn’t let them do now. But the offshore oil and gas fields are to a large extent played out and how will that work alongside Scotland’s Net Zero pretensions, anyway? More relevantly, over 60% of Scottish exports are to the rest of the current UK, while under 20% are to the EU. So, whether Scotland keeps sterling or joins the Euro, London has the capability to make Scotland pay and pay.
Here’s a reasonable discussion of the issues —
https://econreview.studentorg.berkeley.edu/scot-freedom-the-economic-implications-of-scottish-independence/
Indeed, as the lights keep going out in the gardens of the West — to precis a WWI-era politician — those in power in London a decade from now may *prefer* Scottish secession since it will give them a chance to cut off the payments now supporting Scotland and just extract every last bit of profit from it. Why wouldn’t they?
Along these lines, two more observations.
Firstly, on the ground in the city-state of London, it’s striking how many people here are Italians, etcetera, since things in much of the EU and wherever else in the world they came from are worse. London is bustling for the moment, though of course London is not the UK.
Secondly, the City does see dollar hegemony winding down, and so the largest Chinese embassy in Europe is now here and the world’s largest renminbi trading center offshore of mainland China. Likewise, China is using London to unwind substantial amounts of its holdings in US Treasuries. Will Beijing allow the City to exploit the offshore renminbi trade to the same extent that the City exploited the US dollar? Why would Beijing do that? you might reasonably respond. Still, China is a much larger country than the US with a much larger population and will likely loom larger over the world, so a smaller slice of a bigger pie may suffice for the City.
Overall, the hope — perhaps delusional — among those in the City not in denial about dollar hegemony’s end might be summed up along the lines of ‘we don’t have to outrun the bear, we just have to outrun the other guy’ — that is, elsewhere in the West, not excluding Trump’s US.
In other words, if the City can just keep playing butler to the world and if in these increasingly risky times the world’s wealthy continue to need somewhere to stash their money from governments elsewhere — and they will — and if the UK makes the best deals it can simultaneously with China, the EU, the US, India, the City hopes it will come through, and thus the city-state of London as a whole.
But even if that’s not delusional, it won’t help the UK more generally. Also, the real-world issues–the 40 percent of food supplies being imported, the likelihood of climate-driven catastrophe elsewhere in the world, war between the ME or between India and Pakistan, whatever. — mean things could go south next week.
The world is a tinderbox.
edwin
Re Scotland
Craig Murray is involved with the Scotland independence movement. More information can be had from https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/?s=Scotland
I assume that like most independence movements there is a whole lot of ways that things can go sideways or backwards and you just don’t know until it happens.
Revelo
>And go where, though? Canada? Where in the anglosphere (or even Europe) is not having massive problems?
Europe includes Russia. Excellent future if you have useful skills and are willing to learn the language (it is not difficult to become intermediate level conversational, certainly far easier than Chinese) and are a normal heterosexual. If you are a single younger man, easy to get a girlfriend/wife and start a family. Even if you lack valuable job and language skills , you can probably get a less desirable job in the factories as long as the war is ongoing, and learn the language in the meantime. I would strongly advise a $50K starter fund, to support you until you settle in.
Feral Finster
Starmer know full well that the only thing that matter is keeping the American Empire going full steam.
Students of the “Looney Tunes” canon may recall a little yappy dog that follows Spike The Bulldog around, singing Spike’s praises, getting Spike into fights, and getting slapped around by Spike.
The UK is that little yappy dog.
NR
Excellent future if you don’t get tortured and killed by Russian soldiers, you mean.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-bentley-torture-death-soldiers/33127501.html
Mark Level
I want to thank NR for the link to the Russian story– I noted especially this sentence: “The four men have been charged with abuse of power, torture that led to a death, desecration of a body, and conspiracy to hide a body.”
So that indicates clearly that Russia prosecutes (at least in this case, probably in others) its soldiers who abuse civilians. This is something that the US doesn’t do– Erik Prince is still running around free as are his Iraq mercenaries who murdered Iraqis like they were flies. In Okinawa, over decades, US soldiers raped Japanese women and sometimes girls as young as 11 or 12. Some were murdered also. In nearly every case I ever read about, the US spirited the guilty soldier out to the US and there was no justice or resolution. (To be fair, some stories said the most egregious criminal acts resulted in fines to the soldiers and a few were pushed out of their “service.”)
I’m sure many of us recall what happened to US Citizen Gonzalo Lira who was first extorted for his money when jailed for podcasting on the Ukraine war, later tortured while in prison (including sexual abuse) and eventually murdered by medical neglect in jail. Nobody in Ukraine has been punished for that, & likely the malefactors were even rewarded . . .
Still, we recently lost a site contributor, a certain “MJ” who did very long pieces (often with poor sources or mistakes, e.g. Nima of Dialogue Works is “a Russian” and not Iranian, or that the fake rebel AOC wore an elegant dress with “Eat the Rich” on it to a Vogue ball when she wore a “Tax the Rich” message) whose very long posts claimed that Putin is such a Zionist suck-up to Israel that he is willing to throw ally Iran to the Western wolves. (And then make Russia next on the menu, before China is consumed as dessert.)
Nothing wrong with anti-Russia posts, of course. There are plenty of things in Russian culture that I am as critical of as things in my home country. But it’s thoughtful of you to include all the facts to show that evidently this (a) was a case of actions by what would be called “bad apples”, & (b) that there seems to be judicial accountability for such acts, which would not only be ignored in America, but in Israel (see the guy who filmed himself anally raping a Palestinian prisoner) would result in the malefactor going on TV and becoming a celebrity for his actions. (Oh, and while the Israelis & Zionist Americans continue to spread totally unsupported stories about Hamas “mass rapes” on Oct. 7, “40 beheaded babies”, one that Piers Morgan will never let go of, etc. )
mago
A nation might be better defined by its cuisine than its governance, which both suck in GB’s case aside from the ethnic imports. Gotta love that shawarma.
But the beer’s good. Then the music once upon a time. The British Invasion. Yay! The Kinks! You really got me. Of course all the big names ripping off blues riffs from the bayou juke joint dudes, but it was all good fun until it wasn’t.
Hey, what happened to Joe Strummer and the Clash, along with ska and all the rest?
Ash in the dustbin I guess along with Corbin and any semblance of sanity and resistance.
Roll over rover and let Starmer take over.
Have a chip buddy mate.
NR
Well, in theory. However this crime took place a year ago and I can’t find any indication that the soldiers have been punished in any way (I was curious about the outcome of the case so I spent some time today trying to find out what happened). And a Telegram post saying they would be punished was deleted shortly after it was posted, which isn’t a good sign.
Of course it’s possible the soldiers were punished, but it’s not certain.
NR
And there’s also this, which points to them maybe not being punished:
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russell-texas-bentleys-accused-murderers-seek-russian-army-contracts-3386
Not conclusive evidence either way since the article doesn’t say if the soldiers were allowed to sign the contracts, but they may have avoided punishment.
Revelo
What truly pathetic about NR’s example is that it was from a year ago and 1 person died. How many fatal auto accidents last year in any random European country? Does that mean every such country is too dangerous to live in? Where NR might have a point is that, if you are a piss pants, Russia is not the place for you. Nor if you are a CIA spy or have a burning desire to criticize the Russian government and demand regime change. If you are from UK and emigrating to Russia for long-term better opportunities, you will likely be seen by the authorities as a potential progandanda pawn, and as such will be given somewhat preferential treatmemt, which is what happened with Russell Bentley. When ordinary Russians get beat up and killed by drunken Russian soldiers, the police will act, but they don’t treat the case as deserving of special attention. Note that preferential treatment will likely not mean free money, so you need a plan for earning a living, plus supporting yourself until you can earn a living.
Forecasting Intelligence
Interesting post Ian.
Greer has a slightly different take, much on the same lines regarding collapse of the industrial base, neo-liberal policies and a lack of any home-grown resources tor rely on as the global economy tips into contraction.
I would add that most of Europe is in the same boat.
Throw in dire demographics from what you might call the “native” European population whose fertility rates are collapsing.
The one thing you never talk about – probably because it clashes with your progressive worldview – is Greer’s forecast that western Europe due to demographics will become majority Muslim by the 2nd half of this century.
According to research I read yesterday, there are signs that potentially up to 40 English seats could see enough Muslim votes to elect Islamist-minded independent candidates in the 2029 election (there is a big wave of teenage Muslims about to be able to vote within a few years).
The UK party system means an independent only needs say 33% of the vote to win the seat.
So you don’t need 60% Muslim population in a seat, just around a third who are highly mobilised and can vote en masse.
On your wider point, I would say the whole of Europe is toast long-term.
As Greer says, Europeans should flee when they can.
I’ve looked at options but lets say Canada, Australia, America and the nicest islands in the Caribbean are the best best if you want to move to a English speaking place long-term.
NR
Wow, great point Revelo. We shouldn’t care about torture and murder because more people die in car accidents every year. So I guess from now on, anything that kills fewer people than car accidents, we just shrug our shoulders and say “Oh well, these things happen. Car accidents are still a bigger problem though!”
Anyway, if Russia is such a paradise as you say, when are you emigrating?
mago
Greer? Peak oil Greer? Arch Druid Greer? Porfafuckingvor.
Martin Davis
Some background re UK demographic decline. 2025 UN figures for average total fertility rate has the UK coming in at 1.54 births per women. Way short of the 2.1 figure for reproducing the population. And that includes the higher fertility rates of recent immigrants. Bad eh?
We’re In good company though. Europe’s at an average of 1.4, North America doing ‘great’ at 1.59, while East Asia languishes down near the bottom at 1.03. Just as well, as Africa averages 3.95. Immigrants anyone? Point being: demographic decline is a feature, not bug, of just about all upper and middle income states.
Bob
“Get out” to where?
But yes, UK is totally screwed. Couldn’t happen to a more obnoxious bunch of indifferent twits.
Ricardo2000
Europe won’t be far behind.
Don’t even think of moving to Canada.
Solve your own problems or die from right-wing stupidity.
Edward O. Wilson:
“If all mankind were to disappear,
the world would regenerate back to the rich state of equilibrium
that existed 10,000 years ago.
If insects were to vanish,
the environment would collapse into chaos.”